Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?

[lemonlyman]

EV are clearly less complex and easier to maintain. It’s not idiotic to state a fact.

[Just Joe]

Yep, a Leaf Plus is where I would most likely put my used car money. However since I've driven the original Leaf with the 24 KWH battery, the 40 KWH Leaf and the 62 KWH Leaf Plus - I would definitely buy a Leaf Plus. And mostly use it as our primary vehicle with sub-40 mile daily runs. ~3600 lbs. t would likely see us well into retirement all on the original battery if treated well and have enough range to get us to the big city where Grandma lives.

But no, I'm not buying a 9650 lb Hummer with the biggest battery just to do grocery store runs. That would be ridiculous. As much as I admire the long distance Teslas, Rivians, and F150 with a gajillion mile range I'm never, ever going to buy one.

[Syonyk]

Fine.

To be very fucking specific, since apparently nobody here actually reads the relevant shit or has worked on power electronics, inverters, etc:

The high power switching electronics used in the inverter to drive the electric motors - typically IGBTs, MOSFETs, or similar silicon technology designed for high current switching operation, do not have an infinite service life under typical operational conditions, through a variety of failure modes either of the silicon, of the insulation, or from thermal stress.  In addition, the larger capacitors typically used in such equipment also don't have an indefinite service life - electrolytic capacitors dry up with age and use and need replacement.

The replacement of these items is neither trivial nor easy, so to point to an external photo of a motor and claim that the EV is far simpler because you've not opened the case on the integrated inverter or such, is entirely absurd.  They have their own failure modes, unique and independent from ICE failure modes.

The best you can reasonably claim is that lifetime maintenance costs are about half the cost with a BEV or PHEV vs an ICE (BEV and PHEV come in very close to each other, both being about half that of an ICE), and that there are long term maintenance costs associated with both, in a different manner for each, based on the nature of their power electronics.

And then people like me show up and more or less print money fixing the weird, obscure, "This is solid state and won't fail!" sort of stuff that has failed in the field.  I rebuilt a lot of BionX battery packs, and did board level repair on at least some of the older boards (the newer ones just fried in some irreparable way, they latched the failure state and wouldn't power on again, yay modular crap you can't actually rebuild).  And I charged accordingly for it.  I paid for a decent bit of our house on EV repair for a few years.  And that's before you get into things like motors having magnets come loose and locking the motor.  Only an issue on permanent magnet motors, but rather catastrophic when it happens.  Fortunately rare.

We don't have any long term data on EV reliability past about 10 years, which isn't even the average age of the US automotive fleet (currently at 11 or 12 years).  I don't find "first 10 years" reliability for a vehicle the slightest bit interesting except for sorting out lemon brands (of which there are some, and don't look too hard at Tesla repair costs).  The second and third decade are where you sort out well built vehicles and maintainable vehicles from the crap that's rusting in a junkyard inside 15 years, and we literally don't have any that old.  You can do all the accelerated lifecycle testing you want, but it only simulates aging, it doesn't actually reflect real world aging.

And one of the flagship EV makers is violently opposed to any sort of serviceability of their cars, leading to what I termed about 5 years back "throwaway vehicles," and they've changed nothing since then.

Posting fucking meme grade images as some sort of reasoned argument is just stupid, though.  Hopefully the lot of you can agree on that.  I'm out for a while.

[Tyson]

[lemonlyman]

Fine.

To be very fucking specific, since apparently nobody here actually reads the relevant shit or has worked on power electronics, inverters, etc:

The high power switching electronics used in the inverter to drive the electric motors - typically IGBTs, MOSFETs, or similar silicon technology designed for high current switching operation, do not have an infinite service life under typical operational conditions, through a variety of failure modes either of the silicon, of the insulation, or from thermal stress.  In addition, the larger capacitors typically used in such equipment also don't have an indefinite service life - electrolytic capacitors dry up with age and use and need replacement.

The replacement of these items is neither trivial nor easy, so to point to an external photo of a motor and claim that the EV is far simpler because you've not opened the case on the integrated inverter or such, is entirely absurd.  They have their own failure modes, unique and independent from ICE failure modes.

The best you can reasonably claim is that lifetime maintenance costs are about half the cost with a BEV or PHEV vs an ICE (BEV and PHEV come in very close to each other, both being about half that of an ICE), and that there are long term maintenance costs associated with both, in a different manner for each, based on the nature of their power electronics.

And then people like me show up and more or less print money fixing the weird, obscure, "This is solid state and won't fail!" sort of stuff that has failed in the field.  I rebuilt a lot of BionX battery packs, and did board level repair on at least some of the older boards (the newer ones just fried in some irreparable way, they latched the failure state and wouldn't power on again, yay modular crap you can't actually rebuild).  And I charged accordingly for it.  I paid for a decent bit of our house on EV repair for a few years.  And that's before you get into things like motors having magnets come loose and locking the motor.  Only an issue on permanent magnet motors, but rather catastrophic when it happens.  Fortunately rare.

We don't have any long term data on EV reliability past about 10 years, which isn't even the average age of the US automotive fleet (currently at 11 or 12 years).  I don't find "first 10 years" reliability for a vehicle the slightest bit interesting except for sorting out lemon brands (of which there are some, and don't look too hard at Tesla repair costs).  The second and third decade are where you sort out well built vehicles and maintainable vehicles from the crap that's rusting in a junkyard inside 15 years, and we literally don't have any that old.  You can do all the accelerated lifecycle testing you want, but it only simulates aging, it doesn't actually reflect real world aging.

And one of the flagship EV makers is violently opposed to any sort of serviceability of their cars, leading to what I termed about 5 years back "throwaway vehicles," and they've changed nothing since then.

Posting fucking meme grade images as some sort of reasoned argument is just stupid, though.  Hopefully the lot of you can agree on that.  I'm out for a while.

Anonymous angry “expert” retires.

[JLee]

Anonymous angry “expert” retires.

They're right that we have very limited lifespan of EVs to look at so far - but the other side of that coin is we have 100+ years of engineering into ICE cars.  EVs are in their infancy and will only get better with time. They're also missing the point that all the electronics in ICE cars will also eventually fail with age, and also missing that literally nobody said EVs have an infinite service life.  A whole army of strawmen, struck down in anger...

[badger1988]

I'm with Syonyk. The memes and powerpoint slides comparing number of parts are meaningless. What matters is the overall reliability, durability, and cost of the system as a whole.

[lemonlyman]

I was being facetious because he’s made broad assumptions about everyone’s own research and how his experience gives him credibility to determine if today’s ICE vehicles are as easy to maintain and/or as complex as state of the art EV tech. There are engineers who tear down today’s cars, ICE and EV, for a living whose opinions I find more credible.

[BicycleB]

I was being facetious because he’s made broad assumptions about everyone’s own research and how his experience gives him credibility to determine if today’s ICE vehicles are as easy to maintain and/or as complex as state of the art EV tech. There are engineers who tear down today’s cars, ICE and EV, for a living whose opinions I find more credible.

Syonyk sometimes displays an arrogant attitude, but I think he's extremely credible. He literally just explained he's been professionally doing repairs of the type being discussed. Non-anonymous teardown experts have some credibility due to their non-anonymity, but Syonyk has been extremely consistent and knowledgeable in posting here; that should count for something in that he is very likely to be who he says he is. Which is someone who is professionally expert in the subject.

Fwiw, the summary that PHEVs and BEVs are fairly close in repair cost is useful info for me. I would like to advocate for PHEVs in some non-anonymous platforms where I have an audience. For that, non-anonymous sources are useful. Does anyone have a comprehensive analysis of BEV vs PHEV repair costs from a non-anonymous source?

[Paper Chaser]

Fwiw, the summary that PHEVs and BEVs are fairly close in repair cost is useful info for me. I would like to advocate for PHEVs in some non-anonymous platforms where I have an audience. For that, non-anonymous sources are useful. Does anyone have a comprehensive analysis of BEV vs PHEV repair costs from a non-anonymous source?

NYC has a large vehicle fleet including gasoline, hybrid , PHEV, and BEV vehicles. This is their maintenance data from 2018, but it offers some interesting insight into maintenance costs of different types of vehicles:

https://www.carscoops.com/2019/03/new-york-city-saving-on-fleet-costs-with-electric-vehicles/



I find it interesting to compare costs between different powertrains in the same vehicles (Fusion gas/Fusion Hybrid/Fusion PHEV or Focus gas/Focus BEV). The Taurus (Gas) being cheaper than the Volt PHEV is a bit of a surprise as well.

*It's worth noting that we don't know how old any of the vehicles were. For example, Chevy didn't begin selling Bolts until the 2017 model year, so the oldest Bolt in the NYC was at most 2 years old when that data was gathered. They typically use a 10 year life span for their vehicles, so major repairs near the end of that 10 year period might alter this math. Hopefully they'll do a similar report in 5 more years or so to compare total costs over a full decade of use.

[Paper Chaser]

Don't get car related information from investment websites like seekingalpha. Whoever made that image was not well informed at all.
ICE's haven't had carburetors in 30 years.
Some OEMs are now using geared transmissions in their EVs.
EVs often have 2 separate AC systems (1 for cabin cooling and 1 for battery cooling), and more complicated heating units since they don't have a big block of hot metal to harvest cabin heat from.
EVs tend to have more torque and more curb weight than an ICE equivalent which means tire life is shortened.
Tesla's warranties are pretty much industry standard 4yr/50k mile vehicle warranty and 8 year/100-200k mile powertrain warranty (depending on the model):

https://www.tesla.com/support/vehicle-warranty



If you want honest ownership details about EVs with high mileage, looking into Tesloop's experience is about the best we're going to do currently. Unfortunately, the original data set (which compared to a Ford Crown Victoria used in the same way) seems to have been scrubbed from the internet when Tesloop folded. But you can still find some quality info about what they spent, and what items needed to be repaired or replaced as their fleet of Teslas hit 300k+ miles:

https://qz.com/1737145/the-economics-of-driving-seven-teslas-for-2-5-million-miles/?utm_source=pocket-newtab

[Shane]

It seems like some people are defensive of ICE vehicles, mostly because they need them to maintain their desired way of living, usually on acreage in sparsely populated areas, where they have to drive long distances to get where they need to go on a daily basis. I support Americans' freedumb to live wherever they like. I also support taxing the living shit out of them and using that money to pay for real high speed rail between cities and good public transport within metro areas, where 80%+ of Americans already live. Also support vastly increasing government subsidized, dense public housing options on public transit lines within metro areas of cities. If we built good-quality public housing, kinda like the government in Vienna, Austria does, many more Americans would voluntarily move into dense cities, where everything they need to do on a daily basis is within easy walking/biking/public transit distance from their homes. You want to live 50 miles from your work and the nearest supermarket, library, hardware store? No problem. Every time you fire up that engine on your car, though, your bank account should bleed money that can be used to make better, more sustainable, transportation options for the vast majority of our citizens, who aren't insisting on their freedumb to live in the middle of fucking nowhere.

[Paper Chaser]

It seems like some people are defensive of ICE vehicles, mostly because they need them to maintain their desired way of living, usually on acreage in sparsely populated areas, where they have to drive long distances to get where they need to go on a daily basis. I support Americans' freedumb to live wherever they like. I also support taxing the living shit out of them and using that money to pay for real high speed rail between cities and good public transport within metro areas, where 80%+ of Americans already live. Also support vastly increasing government subsidized, dense public housing options on public transit lines within metro areas of cities. If we built good-quality public housing, kinda like the government in Vienna, Austria does, many more Americans would voluntarily move into dense cities, where everything they need to do on a daily basis is within easy walking/biking/public transit distance from their homes. You want to live 50 miles from your work and the nearest supermarket, library, hardware store? No problem. Every time you fire up that engine on your car, though, your bank account should bleed money that can be used to make better, more sustainable, transportation options for the vast majority of our citizens, who aren't insisting on their freedumb to live in the middle of fucking nowhere.

Oh good, we get to go back through this discussion again, except this time with more profanity and insults!

Yeah, mass transit and denser living options are great to offer people. They're not going to happen overnight, and they're not going to be adopted by everybody. Wouldn't it be nice to have cleaner, more efficient options for everybody to use in the mean time as those changes can be adopted? And then those options would continue for the people that do choose a different lifestyle to the one that you prefer? This thread is about those options, and the impact that they can make more than it's about completely rebuilding society to your ideal.

Also, I'm not sure that 80% of the US population living in a "Metro Area" is really meaningful considering what is and is not considered a "Metro Area". There are a whole lot of sparsely populated places that aren't easily served by public transit, or that require commutes in "Metro Areas":

[Just Joe]

Anonymous angry “expert” retires.

They're right that we have very limited lifespan of EVs to look at so far - but the other side of that coin is we have 100+ years of engineering into ICE cars.  EVs are in their infancy and will only get better with time. They're also missing the point that all the electronics in ICE cars will also eventually fail with age, and also missing that literally nobody said EVs have an infinite service life.  A whole army of strawmen, struck down in anger...

Well the marketing departments have made a point to say that EV motors could potentially last 1M miles in various car promotional ---errr, car review articles around the web. And the motor may last that long but the rest of the car - the interior, the suspension, the chassis, etc won't. ;)

Visit a junkyard. People quit maintaining a car long before it is junkyard material. In fact they ensure it is junkyard material.

Low cost car meet low budget owner. Junkyard reservation confirmed...

In my part of the country cars generally don't rust out, they get neglected to death. I'm curious if the new higher price tags on today's new cars will put them into the junkyard faster (more expensive to maintain) or if people will hang on to them a little tighter and care a little longer.

Good post @Syonyk.

[soulpatchmike]

I've been working with VFD(variable frequency drives) used in industrial and AGV applications using IGBTs for almost 30 years with 15 of them working for a VFD manufacturer.  We occasionally replace large VFDs that were installed in the 1980s in industrial applications and most often the oldest drives fail on capacitor degradation.  Many of them are still working when taken out of service for an upgrade.  In fact, most old electronics fail due to capacitor failures.  We also occasionally do repairs on drives within the warranty period.  IGBT failures are extremely rare < ~0.1% of drives installed. The main killer of an IGBT is overtemperature.  Failure is rare due to the protections built into drives built today.  The idea that someone in the VFD/electronics industry would use IGBT failure as a reason not to buy an EV is laughable.  The occasional drive could have a failed IGBT, but no more often than an ICE lemon coming off the line that ends up needing a full motor replacement after 5000 miles. 

With that said if there were a technician on this board that all day long did VFD repairs, their perspective could be that VFD suck and they are always replacing IGBTs, however, they have no visibility to the number of drives that are out in the field running for decades without service.  It is millions...

Keep in mind that IGBTs are typically switching at around 3000 to 12000 times per second in operation depending on the application and there are no mechanics in the component(that why it is called solid state).  In laymans terms, it is a block of insulation that when the right energy is applied to one pin on the component, it allows power to pass through another pin, otherwise the insulation keeps that power from leaking through.  The breakdown period is not counted in the number of cycles, but typically in time and operating temp.  I have seen MTTF(mean time to failure) reports on IGBTs at around 100k hours.  That is a lot of miles in an EV...

EVs biggest challenge is the battery and we keep seeing significant advancements in battery technology and manufacturing every year.  Even my 90k mile Nissan leaf still has about 80-85% of the original 2015 capacity on the battery and the leaf batteries are widely complained about.

[pecunia]

Is planned obsolescence a thing of the past? Prior to the Japanese invasion of highter quality vehicles in the 1970s, the automotive market was ruled by the big three American automotive manufacturers.  Automobiles were designed for a three year life span.  It was intentional.  The bean counters who ruled the industry liked a continuous cash flow.  It took quite a while before the idea of quality permeated the American car industry.

Electric cars are new.  They are beginning to make serious inroads in the vehicle market around the world.  Will the bean counters once again order the engineers to take the margin out of components to limit the useful life of the product?  Heat is the enemy of electronics.  I could see them easily cutting corners on heat sinks.

[Tyson]

Is planned obsolescence a thing of the past? Prior to the Japanese invasion of highter quality vehicles in the 1970s, the automotive market was ruled by the big three American automotive manufacturers.  Automobiles were designed for a three year life span.  It was intentional.  The bean counters who ruled the industry liked a continuous cash flow.  It took quite a while before the idea of quality permeated the American car industry.

Electric cars are new.  They are beginning to make serious inroads in the vehicle market around the world.  Will the bean counters once again order the engineers to take the margin out of components to limit the useful life of the product?  Heat is the enemy of electronics.  I could see them easily cutting corners on heat sinks.

I think EV's only win if they are fundamentally better than ICE cars in most categories, including longevity and cost of ownership.  I think the EV maker that comes out with cars that have the greatest range driveable, shortest charging times and best reliability is going to win.  Right now we are in a growth phase so corner's won't be cut now, IMO because there's too much cash to be made by creating a compelling product and grabbing market share.  In the future, when growth is stagnant, that's when you see the bean counters come out. 

You see that pattern not just with cars, but all kinds of businesses.  Like McDonals, or Starbucks.  They made a (relatively higher) quality product when they were still rapidly growing, but now have cut corners and lowered quality as growth has slowed. 

[lemonlyman]

EVs have failure points. No one has disputed that. ICE cars have MORE failure points…which is the point. When my EV has any kind of motor or battery maintenance, I’ll let everyone know.

[lemonlyman]

Anonymous angry “expert” retires.

They're right that we have very limited lifespan of EVs to look at so far - but the other side of that coin is we have 100+ years of engineering into ICE cars.  EVs are in their infancy and will only get better with time. They're also missing the point that all the electronics in ICE cars will also eventually fail with age, and also missing that literally nobody said EVs have an infinite service life.  A whole army of strawmen, struck down in anger...

Well the marketing departments have made a point to say that EV motors could potentially last 1M miles in various car promotional ---errr, car review articles around the web. And the motor may last that long but the rest of the car - the interior, the suspension, the chassis, etc won't. ;)

Visit a junkyard. People quit maintaining a car long before it is junkyard material. In fact they ensure it is junkyard material.

Low cost car meet low budget owner. Junkyard reservation confirmed...

In my part of the country cars generally don't rust out, they get neglected to death. I'm curious if the new higher price tags on today's new cars will put them into the junkyard faster (more expensive to maintain) or if people will hang on to them a little tighter and care a little longer.

Good post @Syonyk.

And ICE cars have all those things too. So is an EV easier to maintain or not. You’ve added no opinion.

Does anyone watch Monro and Associates?

[Shane]

It seems like some people are defensive of ICE vehicles, mostly because they need them to maintain their desired way of living, usually on acreage in sparsely populated areas, where they have to drive long distances to get where they need to go on a daily basis. I support Americans' freedumb to live wherever they like. I also support taxing the living shit out of them and using that money to pay for real high speed rail between cities and good public transport within metro areas, where 80%+ of Americans already live. Also support vastly increasing government subsidized, dense public housing options on public transit lines within metro areas of cities. If we built good-quality public housing, kinda like the government in Vienna, Austria does, many more Americans would voluntarily move into dense cities, where everything they need to do on a daily basis is within easy walking/biking/public transit distance from their homes. You want to live 50 miles from your work and the nearest supermarket, library, hardware store? No problem. Every time you fire up that engine on your car, though, your bank account should bleed money that can be used to make better, more sustainable, transportation options for the vast majority of our citizens, who aren't insisting on their freedumb to live in the middle of fucking nowhere.

Oh good, we get to go back through this discussion again, except this time with more profanity and insults!

Yeah, mass transit and denser living options are great to offer people. They're not going to happen overnight, and they're not going to be adopted by everybody. Wouldn't it be nice to have cleaner, more efficient options for everybody to use in the mean time as those changes can be adopted? And then those options would continue for the people that do choose a different lifestyle to the one that you prefer? This thread is about those options, and the impact that they can make more than it's about completely rebuilding society to your ideal.

Also, I'm not sure that 80% of the US population living in a "Metro Area" is really meaningful considering what is and is not considered a "Metro Area". There are a whole lot of sparsely populated places that aren't easily served by public transit, or that require commutes in "Metro Areas":

Sorry, I'm just sick and fucking tired of Americans and their cars. I don't give a shit if they're EVs or ICE. I want them all gone. My 13 year old daughter and one of her classmates have been commuting back and forth to 8th grade on their bikes, and many days they report that it's completely impossible for them to cross the street IN A MARKED FUCKING CROSSWALK to get to the bike path that's just 2 blocks from our home, because entitled adults, who are speeding through our neighborhood at 10 to 20mph over the speed limit, refuse to follow the law that requires them to stop when pedestrians are crossing the street in a marked crosswalk. After 5 or 10 minutes of waiting for adults in their cars to stop to allow them to cross, my daughter and her classmate have been pushing their bikes down the sidewalk for ~1/2 mile to the nearest traffic light, where they dutifully push the beg button and stand there waiting to be allowed to cross the fucking street. This is not okay. It has to stop. I give zero fucks if my tone or language upsets you or anyone else. Fuck anybody who thinks it's okay to speed by on their way to work without stopping to let two little girls cross the street.

[GuitarStv]

It seems like some people are defensive of ICE vehicles, mostly because they need them to maintain their desired way of living, usually on acreage in sparsely populated areas, where they have to drive long distances to get where they need to go on a daily basis. I support Americans' freedumb to live wherever they like. I also support taxing the living shit out of them and using that money to pay for real high speed rail between cities and good public transport within metro areas, where 80%+ of Americans already live. Also support vastly increasing government subsidized, dense public housing options on public transit lines within metro areas of cities. If we built good-quality public housing, kinda like the government in Vienna, Austria does, many more Americans would voluntarily move into dense cities, where everything they need to do on a daily basis is within easy walking/biking/public transit distance from their homes. You want to live 50 miles from your work and the nearest supermarket, library, hardware store? No problem. Every time you fire up that engine on your car, though, your bank account should bleed money that can be used to make better, more sustainable, transportation options for the vast majority of our citizens, who aren't insisting on their freedumb to live in the middle of fucking nowhere.

Oh good, we get to go back through this discussion again, except this time with more profanity and insults!

Yeah, mass transit and denser living options are great to offer people. They're not going to happen overnight, and they're not going to be adopted by everybody. Wouldn't it be nice to have cleaner, more efficient options for everybody to use in the mean time as those changes can be adopted? And then those options would continue for the people that do choose a different lifestyle to the one that you prefer? This thread is about those options, and the impact that they can make more than it's about completely rebuilding society to your ideal.

Also, I'm not sure that 80% of the US population living in a "Metro Area" is really meaningful considering what is and is not considered a "Metro Area". There are a whole lot of sparsely populated places that aren't easily served by public transit, or that require commutes in "Metro Areas":

Sorry, I'm just sick and fucking tired of Americans and their cars. I don't give a shit if they're EVs or ICE. I want them all gone. My 13 year old daughter and one of her classmates have been commuting back and forth to 8th grade on their bikes, and many days they report that it's completely impossible for them to cross the street IN A MARKED FUCKING CROSSWALK to get to the bike path that's just 2 blocks from our home, because entitled adults, who are speeding through our neighborhood at 10 to 20mph over the speed limit, refuse to follow the law that requires them to stop when pedestrians are crossing the street in a marked crosswalk. After 5 or 10 minutes of waiting for adults in their cars to stop to allow them to cross, my daughter and her classmate have been pushing their bikes down the sidewalk for ~1/2 mile to the nearest traffic light, where they dutifully push the beg button and stand there waiting to be allowed to cross the fucking street. This is not okay. It has to stop. I give zero fucks if my tone or language upsets you or anyone else. Fuck anybody who thinks it's okay to speed by on their way to work without stopping to let two little girls cross the street.

You need to check out the 'Not Just Bikes' YouTube channel.  There are a lot of us who are with you.

[badger1988]

Is planned obsolescence a thing of the past? Prior to the Japanese invasion of highter quality vehicles in the 1970s, the automotive market was ruled by the big three American automotive manufacturers.  Automobiles were designed for a three year life span.  It was intentional.  The bean counters who ruled the industry liked a continuous cash flow.  It took quite a while before the idea of quality permeated the American car industry.

Electric cars are new.  They are beginning to make serious inroads in the vehicle market around the world.  Will the bean counters once again order the engineers to take the margin out of components to limit the useful life of the product?  Heat is the enemy of electronics.  I could see them easily cutting corners on heat sinks.

I think EV's only win if they are fundamentally better than ICE cars in most categories, including longevity and cost of ownership.  I think the EV maker that comes out with cars that have the greatest range driveable, shortest charging times and best reliability is going to win.  Right now we are in a growth phase so corner's won't be cut now, IMO because there's too much cash to be made by creating a compelling product and grabbing market share. In the future, when growth is stagnant, that's when you see the bean counters come out. 

You see that pattern not just with cars, but all kinds of businesses.  Like McDonals, or Starbucks.  They made a (relatively higher) quality product when they were still rapidly growing, but now have cut corners and lowered quality as growth has slowed.

I agree with much of this, but when it comes to the bolded, I'd be more concerned about the opposite. There is a real risk of corner-cutting precisely because there is a race to create new products and grab market share. Robust product development and validation are almost always at odds with timeline pressures.

[BDWW]

It seems like some people are defensive of ICE vehicles, mostly because they need them to maintain their desired way of living, usually on acreage in sparsely populated areas, where they have to drive long distances to get where they need to go on a daily basis. I support Americans' freedumb to live wherever they like. I also support taxing the living shit out of them and using that money to pay for real high speed rail between cities and good public transport within metro areas, where 80%+ of Americans already live. Also support vastly increasing government subsidized, dense public housing options on public transit lines within metro areas of cities. If we built good-quality public housing, kinda like the government in Vienna, Austria does, many more Americans would voluntarily move into dense cities, where everything they need to do on a daily basis is within easy walking/biking/public transit distance from their homes. You want to live 50 miles from your work and the nearest supermarket, library, hardware store? No problem. Every time you fire up that engine on your car, though, your bank account should bleed money that can be used to make better, more sustainable, transportation options for the vast majority of our citizens, who aren't insisting on their freedumb to live in the middle of fucking nowhere.

Oh good, we get to go back through this discussion again, except this time with more profanity and insults!

Yeah, mass transit and denser living options are great to offer people. They're not going to happen overnight, and they're not going to be adopted by everybody. Wouldn't it be nice to have cleaner, more efficient options for everybody to use in the mean time as those changes can be adopted? And then those options would continue for the people that do choose a different lifestyle to the one that you prefer? This thread is about those options, and the impact that they can make more than it's about completely rebuilding society to your ideal.

Also, I'm not sure that 80% of the US population living in a "Metro Area" is really meaningful considering what is and is not considered a "Metro Area". There are a whole lot of sparsely populated places that aren't easily served by public transit, or that require commutes in "Metro Areas":

Sorry, I'm just sick and fucking tired of Americans and their cars. I don't give a shit if they're EVs or ICE. I want them all gone. My 13 year old daughter and one of her classmates have been commuting back and forth to 8th grade on their bikes, and many days they report that it's completely impossible for them to cross the street IN A MARKED FUCKING CROSSWALK to get to the bike path that's just 2 blocks from our home, because entitled adults, who are speeding through our neighborhood at 10 to 20mph over the speed limit, refuse to follow the law that requires them to stop when pedestrians are crossing the street in a marked crosswalk. After 5 or 10 minutes of waiting for adults in their cars to stop to allow them to cross, my daughter and her classmate have been pushing their bikes down the sidewalk for ~1/2 mile to the nearest traffic light, where they dutifully push the beg button and stand there waiting to be allowed to cross the fucking street. This is not okay. It has to stop. I give zero fucks if my tone or language upsets you or anyone else. Fuck anybody who thinks it's okay to speed by on their way to work without stopping to let two little girls cross the street.

Hear Hear

[TomTX]

We don't have any long term data on EV reliability past about 10 years, which isn't even the average age of the US automotive fleet (currently at 11 or 12 years).  I don't find "first 10 years" reliability for a vehicle the slightest bit interesting except for sorting out lemon brands (of which there are some, and don't look too hard at Tesla repair costs).  The second and third decade are where you sort out well built vehicles and maintainable vehicles from the crap that's rusting in a junkyard inside 15 years, and we literally don't have any that old.  You can do all the accelerated lifecycle testing you want, but it only simulates aging, it doesn't actually reflect real world aging

No long term data on EV reliability? Ahem: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OhnjMdzGusc

Now admittedly there isn't much in common between a Baker Electric and modern EVs. Note that while Jay swapped the battery for a modern one, the original Edison cells (reportedly) still work fine and could be put back in to make it all original. The efficiency, energy density and self-discharge make Edison cells pretty unappealing these days, of course.

[Paper Chaser]

It seems like some people are defensive of ICE vehicles, mostly because they need them to maintain their desired way of living, usually on acreage in sparsely populated areas, where they have to drive long distances to get where they need to go on a daily basis. I support Americans' freedumb to live wherever they like. I also support taxing the living shit out of them and using that money to pay for real high speed rail between cities and good public transport within metro areas, where 80%+ of Americans already live. Also support vastly increasing government subsidized, dense public housing options on public transit lines within metro areas of cities. If we built good-quality public housing, kinda like the government in Vienna, Austria does, many more Americans would voluntarily move into dense cities, where everything they need to do on a daily basis is within easy walking/biking/public transit distance from their homes. You want to live 50 miles from your work and the nearest supermarket, library, hardware store? No problem. Every time you fire up that engine on your car, though, your bank account should bleed money that can be used to make better, more sustainable, transportation options for the vast majority of our citizens, who aren't insisting on their freedumb to live in the middle of fucking nowhere.

Oh good, we get to go back through this discussion again, except this time with more profanity and insults!

Yeah, mass transit and denser living options are great to offer people. They're not going to happen overnight, and they're not going to be adopted by everybody. Wouldn't it be nice to have cleaner, more efficient options for everybody to use in the mean time as those changes can be adopted? And then those options would continue for the people that do choose a different lifestyle to the one that you prefer? This thread is about those options, and the impact that they can make more than it's about completely rebuilding society to your ideal.

Also, I'm not sure that 80% of the US population living in a "Metro Area" is really meaningful considering what is and is not considered a "Metro Area". There are a whole lot of sparsely populated places that aren't easily served by public transit, or that require commutes in "Metro Areas":

Sorry, I'm just sick and fucking tired of Americans and their cars. I don't give a shit if they're EVs or ICE. I want them all gone. My 13 year old daughter and one of her classmates have been commuting back and forth to 8th grade on their bikes, and many days they report that it's completely impossible for them to cross the street IN A MARKED FUCKING CROSSWALK to get to the bike path that's just 2 blocks from our home, because entitled adults, who are speeding through our neighborhood at 10 to 20mph over the speed limit, refuse to follow the law that requires them to stop when pedestrians are crossing the street in a marked crosswalk. After 5 or 10 minutes of waiting for adults in their cars to stop to allow them to cross, my daughter and her classmate have been pushing their bikes down the sidewalk for ~1/2 mile to the nearest traffic light, where they dutifully push the beg button and stand there waiting to be allowed to cross the fucking street. This is not okay. It has to stop. I give zero fucks if my tone or language upsets you or anyone else. Fuck anybody who thinks it's okay to speed by on their way to work without stopping to let two little girls cross the street.

Yeah, people suck! Sounds to me like you just live near too many other people :) Instead of expecting the many people around me to change, I just removed myself from the people around me.
Traffic isn't a problem for me out here in rural, car-dependent BFE. We walk and cycle in the road just fine. I'd probably feel the same way as you if I were living where you are, constantly surrounded by people being rude, inconsiderate asses.
Unfortunately, there are always trade offs in locations. If you want to live in the middle of everything, you're going to have to deal with all of the people. If you want to avoid all of the people, you're going to have to deal with fewer amenities and some travel time. I don't begrudge those who want to live a different lifestyle than my preference, and I don't really understand the vitriol coming the other way. We can all choose where we live based on our priorities and budget. If you're unhappy in the current place, maybe consider a change? You can try to change society, and you might be successful. But it's always easier to change your own position than it is to change society.

[Telecaster]

How do you all feel about longevity and resale value for EVs? One of my concerns is the life of the battery. Every day they get a little worse, so buying a new vs 10-year-old EV seems like you are losing a lot by getting the pre-owned vehicle.

How long can EVs be expected to last and stay near their new buy driving ranges? And what does reselling an EV look like if after 5 years it can only drive 75% or less as far as it could when you bought it?

No idea what the future holds.  I bought a 2013 Leaf in January 2017 when it came off lease.  That was a sweet spot for used Leafs because they had just upgraded the model.  My Leaf has less than 10% battery degradation and the resale value has skyrocketed.  I could sell it today for far more than I bought it for. 

[clifp]

Yeah, people suck! Sounds to me like you just live near too many other people :) Instead of expecting the many people around me to change, I just removed myself from the people around me.
Traffic isn't a problem for me out here in rural, car-dependent BFE. We walk and cycle in the road just fine. I'd probably feel the same way as you if I were living where you are, constantly surrounded by people being rude, inconsiderate asses.
Unfortunately, there are always trade offs in locations. If you want to live in the middle of everything, you're going to have to deal with all of the people. If you want to avoid all of the people, you're going to have to deal with fewer amenities and some travel time. I don't begrudge those who want to live a different lifestyle than my preference, and I don't really understand the vitriol coming the other way. We can all choose where we live based on our priorities and budget. If you're unhappy in the current place, maybe consider a change? You can try to change society, and you might be successful. But it's always easier to change your own position than it is to change society.

Thank you for posting that.  I have an EV it is powered by PV, and every month I donate a small amount of electricity to the grid, cause my usage is less than the PV system produces and I'm below the minimum $25/month bill. . My carbon footprint is pretty small.  I don't want to take mass transit, it is crowded, noisy, smelly and there are often dangerous people on it. The planned mass transit system in Honolulu will be at least 10 years late, and the cost is about $80,000 per household more than enough to buy every household a self driving Tesla.

I biked a modest amount when i was in my 20 and 30s, but it was scary at times then, and my reactions have slowed. A good friend of mine just last week turned off the life support for her brother  who was brain dead. A lifelong biker, his luck gave out on him. No one hit him he just crashed into something and despite wearing a helmet suffered brain injuries. Like me, he was in his early 60s. I know way more folks seriously injured by bike accidents than cars.

I am really tired of the vitriol directed against cars. The environmental impact of EVs is substantially less than ICE cars today, and as we move to renewable energy it will decrease even more.
Trains are very fuel efficient especially for moving freight. Still, it is very likely that we will have diesel locomotives contributing to global warming, long after the last ICE car has been produced.

Cars are everywhere and here to stay, if you want to tilt at windmills and get them removed, I guess it is important to have hobbies in retirement.  Just don't surprise at the pushback.

 

[Shane]

The city where we live is totally fine. What's not fine is the distracted, entitled sub/exurbanites zooming through our neighborhoods in their cars like the city's their own little private race track. Also feeling triggered by seeing pictures of village idiot Joe Biden posing in a new Hummer EV with a big smile on his face. He has to know that that shiny, new, 9Klb EV is going to kill even more people than the ICE ones. Our children, old people, handicapped people, and poor people who have to catch buses and trains, shouldn't have to die just to shave a few minutes off of entitled suburbanites' commute times. The battery in the Hummer EV alone weighs 2Klbs - more than many entire cars. The Hummer EV weighs as much as an actual tank. We could make 4 Nissan Leaf batteries or 380 e-bike batteries, with the same amount of materials it takes to make the battery for just one Hummer EV. I'm sorry, but EVs like this are NOT an improvement over conventional ICE vehicles. In some ways, EVs can be worse than ICE, because they lull Americans into believing it's just fine to continue consuming multiples more resources from our planet than most other humans. That our president is seemingly placing his seal of approval on this monument to American gluttony is sad, imho. Instead, as the people's representatives, our government should be taxing the shit out of anyone who thinks it might be a good idea to drive around in something like this, and our government should be locking drivers up when they murder our children and old people with their make-believe-military-style vehicles.

"Rather than celebrating the Hummer EV, the Biden admin should be proposing weight-based fees to restrain truck bloat and encourage smaller cars. A promising model: The District of Columbia’s new sliding scale of car registration fees."

[AccidentialMustache]

Yeah, people suck! Sounds to me like you just live near too many other people :) Instead of expecting the many people around me to change, I just removed myself from the people around me.
Traffic isn't a problem for me out here in rural, car-dependent BFE. We walk and cycle in the road just fine. I'd probably feel the same way as you if I were living where you are, constantly surrounded by people being rude, inconsiderate asses.
Unfortunately, there are always trade offs in locations. If you want to live in the middle of everything, you're going to have to deal with all of the people. If you want to avoid all of the people, you're going to have to deal with fewer amenities and some travel time. I don't begrudge those who want to live a different lifestyle than my preference, and I don't really understand the vitriol coming the other way. We can all choose where we live based on our priorities and budget. If you're unhappy in the current place, maybe consider a change? You can try to change society, and you might be successful. But it's always easier to change your own position than it is to change society.

People aren't the issue. Bad transportation design is the issue. See also, Not Just Bikes.

We design our roads to make the 10-20 mph over thing safe and most people drive the speed that feels safe.

And, as NJB points out, this isn't "oh its just the Dutch being special." Their cities were car-infested hell-holes in the 60s/70s and they decided to prioritize people (walking, biking) over cars and amazingly it works.

[clifp]

Guess what all societies, at all times, have allowed certain members to consume more than their "fair share" of resources.  That includes wives, wine, food, and absolutely transportation.

It is not fair that royals were carried by dozen people often slaves, or the bitish royal family has dozens of coaches and stable of horses.  There have been private trains, and individual dining cars since, the 1840s.   We have motorcades for our leaders, and monster cars have been a thing since the early 1900s.   Lots of celebrities have their own 707/737/757, and tens of thousands have lear jets and Gulfstream's.  A friend of mine was the Marine Colonel in charge of MX-1 the helicopter squadron that flew President Bush 43, and Obama around. The amount of equipment used for the shortest presidential trip is just staggering.  We've all seen the oligarchs yatches

Given that this has been part of human history forever, and systems like communism, made things worse. I don't see much hope in the situation changing. (A carbon tax would help though)

I agree that a Hummer is an environmental atrocity and Hummer EV isn't much of an improvement.

[AccidentialMustache]

I am really tired of the vitriol directed against cars. The environmental impact of EVs is substantially less than ICE cars today, and as we move to renewable energy it will decrease even more.
Trains are very fuel efficient especially for moving freight. Still, it is very likely that we will have diesel locomotives contributing to global warming, long after the last ICE car has been produced.

Cars are everywhere and here to stay, if you want to tilt at windmills and get them removed, I guess it is important to have hobbies in retirement.  Just don't surprise at the pushback.

You're wrong about the environmental impact because you're considering only first order implications of the EV vs ICE. Both are still cars and need roads. With roads in north america you get the suburbs, and they are a lovely carbon, water, and monitary disaster all their own. (net negative income over the lifetime of their infrastructure -- roads/water/sewer/services -- see Strong Towns)

Cars can be told to go to hell, the Netherlands did. Doing so has, shockingly, not disqualified the Dutch from being one of the top-happiness countries in the world. And going up on that scale, rather than down, as the USA is.


We have an EV, because it is better than the available alternative of ICE, but I don't kid myself that is sufficient. The suburbs also need to go the way of the dinosaurs.

[BDWW]

43,000 people died in traffic violence in 2021 in the US. 8000 of them children. That's > 21 children a day, or a Uvalde every day on our roads.  I apologize that some might find the comparison crass, but I find it appalling how this country just seems to be fine with this. Car-centric development has to go. Much of the rest of the developed world is realizing this, but like many things the US seemingly will be 50 years late.

[Paper Chaser]

The city where we live is totally fine. What's not fine is the distracted, entitled sub/exurbanites zooming through our neighborhoods in their cars like the city's their own little private race track. Also feeling triggered by seeing pictures of village idiot Joe Biden posing in a new Hummer EV with a big smile on his face. He has to know that that shiny, new, 9Klb EV is going to kill even more people than the ICE ones. Our children, old people, handicapped people, and poor people who have to catch buses and trains, shouldn't have to die just to shave a few minutes off of entitled suburbanites' commute times. The battery in the Hummer EV alone weighs 2Klbs - more than many entire cars. The Hummer EV weighs as much as an actual tank. We could make 4 Nissan Leaf batteries or 380 e-bike batteries, with the same amount of materials it takes to make the battery for just one Hummer EV. I'm sorry, but EVs like this are NOT an improvement over conventional ICE vehicles. In some ways, EVs can be worse than ICE, because they lull Americans into believing it's just fine to continue consuming multiples more resources from our planet than most other humans. That our president is seemingly placing his seal of approval on this monument to American gluttony is sad, imho. Instead, as the people's representatives, our government should be taxing the shit out of anyone who thinks it might be a good idea to drive around in something like this, and our government should be locking drivers up when they murder our children and old people with their make-believe-military-style vehicles.

"Rather than celebrating the Hummer EV, the Biden admin should be proposing weight-based fees to restrain truck bloat and encourage smaller cars. A promising model: The District of Columbia’s new sliding scale of car registration fees."

There's some hyperbole in there (Even at 10k lbs, the Hummer doesn't weigh anywhere near as much as an actual tank, and no car in the US has weighed under 2k lbs in a very long time), but I actually agree in general. It's way excessive, and potentially worse for the environment than something like a Prius. I also have concerns about giving Joe Schmoe the keys to 5-10k lb machines with 700+hp (ICE or EV) without increasing licensing requirements.

That being said, the lack of tailpipe emissions from the Hummer EV is still a huge improvement over a comparable ICE vehicle (HD pickup truck, potentially diesel).

[Paper Chaser]

Yeah, people suck! Sounds to me like you just live near too many other people :) Instead of expecting the many people around me to change, I just removed myself from the people around me.
Traffic isn't a problem for me out here in rural, car-dependent BFE. We walk and cycle in the road just fine. I'd probably feel the same way as you if I were living where you are, constantly surrounded by people being rude, inconsiderate asses.
Unfortunately, there are always trade offs in locations. If you want to live in the middle of everything, you're going to have to deal with all of the people. If you want to avoid all of the people, you're going to have to deal with fewer amenities and some travel time. I don't begrudge those who want to live a different lifestyle than my preference, and I don't really understand the vitriol coming the other way. We can all choose where we live based on our priorities and budget. If you're unhappy in the current place, maybe consider a change? You can try to change society, and you might be successful. But it's always easier to change your own position than it is to change society.

People aren't the issue. Bad transportation design is the issue. See also, Not Just Bikes.

We design our roads to make the 10-20 mph over thing safe and most people drive the speed that feels safe.

And, as NJB points out, this isn't "oh its just the Dutch being special." Their cities were car-infested hell-holes in the 60s/70s and they decided to prioritize people (walking, biking) over cars and amazingly it works.

I love intelligent design. I've seen some NJB stuff and can't disagree that what we're doing could be greatly improved. It's a worthy goal to have more thoughtful planning in all aspects of city planning (transportation, zoning, regulation, policing, etc). If neighborhoods, or entire cities choose to adopt change then I fully support that. That's going to take time. Potentially decades. My point was that as an individual, you can complain, and try to change your environment, or you can simply change environments. It's always easier to control what we can as individuals than it is to enact change on a larger scale. That doesn't mean pursuing larger scale change isn't a worthy goal, but circle of control is a real thing.

What I don't support is railing against people on the other side of the country as dumb assholes because some assholes speed down your street. It's fine to make cities more appealing to live in if there's demand for that. Not everybody wants that, and frankly we need people to live in less dense places too. Suburban sprawl is bad, but that doesn't mean that rural living is bad and I think that distinction gets pretty opaque for a lot of people here.

[Just Joe]

Does anyone watch Monro and Associates?

Yes.

[GuitarStv]

And typical smallish cars have ergonomics that leave me wanting something different as I get older. Harder to enter and exit a Miata than a small SUV such as an HRV - although the recent HRV grew by 400-500 lbs from the previous generation so no longer what I would describe as small.

Getting into and out of a smaller vehicle requires a little bit more flexibility and strength.  Ironically, it's exactly what reliance on driving machines rather than walking and riding a bike will make you lose as you age.  None of the guys I know in their 60s who regularly practice Jiu Jitsu or ride their bikes long distances have problems with this . . . but plenty of folks who are sedentary run into this problem in their late 40s.

[bryan995]

The top of this page was a bit wild, but then I saw the resident EV/Solar professor took a break, which is delightful !

Agreed that EVs are simpler in every way - at some point it will be OK that the average person cannot repair on their own.  It will be cheaper/more-efficient to recycle and replace.

[GuitarStv]

It will be cheaper/more-efficient to recycle and replace.

Just like with plastics!

That turned out good for us, right?  Plastic recycling wasn't a giant scam, and we didn't dump so many plastics into the environment that the average person now eats 5g of plastic a week now without knowing it.

Blind faith in new technology and not looking too closely at the results has certainly worked out well so far!

[StashingAway]

What I don't support is railing against people on the other side of the country as dumb assholes because some assholes speed down your street. It's fine to make cities more appealing to live in if there's demand for that. Not everybody wants that, and frankly we need people to live in less dense places too. Suburban sprawl is bad, but that doesn't mean that rural living is bad and I think that distinction gets pretty opaque for a lot of people here.

The phrasing of this brings up two points for me:

1) It can be difficult for mass demand for something when the general public doesn't the form in which it can exist. There was no demand for smartphones before 2005, and yet we see that they are highly adopted by society now. You could say that there is pretty good demand for them. The same goes for the Strong Towns / NJB talking points. Most American's views of higher density living isn't a good representation of what it would be (and therefore what would actually be considered in demand post hoc). So, using "demand" as a key determining point on the success of smarter cities probably isn't a great measure of the necessity of building them. Which leads to my second point

2) In general, part of being human and living on a planet with limited resources must have some level of sacrificing "what we want" for what is better for the survival of everyone. There are certain things that we can agree are universal rights, or at least most people will agree that such there is a differentiation between what we are entitled to and what we may not be. I can definitely entertain (and am somewhat convinced) that rural living isn't all bad. I would definitely say that if adopted en-mass it would be. But what I am not convinced of is that it is acceptable just because someone wants it. I "want" a 5 star meal every night and "want" $50K of landscaping and outdoor hot tub/shower and a mountaintop view of the state park and access to broadway shows. But I don't get that an nor should I. On a society level, though, we can't design our system around what makes people happy, because happiness is subjective. We have to design it around what is practical and sustainable, which is much less fleeting.

On a personal level, the methods of Stoicism greatly curb my hedonistic adaptation and desires for these so that I can live a meaningful life. This can be found in mindful meditation, prayer, community, or what have you. These things can make me want what I already have rather than what I do not, and can help with our current "chasing the dragon" method of improvement that results in things like $80K Tesla's when an E-bike will do.

This isn't really meant to be new information or anything, I'm sure being on the MMM forum so long you've heard it all. I just think that this is another opaque point. If every car were an EV tomorrow, we'd still have massive infrastructure inefficiencies, and I think that isn't really looked at with the EV push. It solves a problem that is easy to visualize, but IMO is ultimately low impact relative to the opportunity cost of development resources.

[neo von retorch]

What has eluded me so far - perhaps one of the proponents of massively overhauling the U.S. infrastructure can speak to this?

Question 1:
What would the U.S. look like with an optimal infrastructure? i.e. what would the population density be? What would the typical housing look like for everyone?

Question 2:
What would the timeline be assuming everything comes up roses, everyone votes to support this, every politician finds the money to incentivize the changes?

[bryan995]

It will be cheaper/more-efficient to recycle and replace.

Just like with plastics!

That turned out good for us, right?  Plastic recycling wasn't a giant scam, and we didn't dump so many plastics into the environment that the average person now eats 5g of plastic a week now without knowing it.

Blind faith in new technology and not looking too closely at the results has certainly worked out well so far!

Plastics were off to a rocky start, but are much improved now no? 
Not sure I understand your position.  You would suggest we just do nothing then?

It is preferable to burn fossil fuels in ICE over the making the switch to EVs where we at least have the potential to recycle batteries?
I dont think there are plans to recycle burned fossil fuels just yet.

The chassis is shared between both ICE and EV.
ICE has fuels/fluids/oils/tubes/hoses/engine/transmission.
EV has batteries and electric motor.

[Just Joe]

I think the USA could go along way quickly just harvesting the best ideas already in use in other parts of the world. I have no idea how it would be accomplished but localizing our lives so that home / work / school / shopping were all quality experiences yet close enough to walk or bike. Development of traditional walkable villages (neighborhoods). That could be a big improvement.

I have no desire to live more like of our peers and family with long drives through a large metro areas to reach work in one direction, shopping in a different direction, perhaps entertainment is yet another direction, etc. 12K-15K miles per year possibly in two cars (one per spouse) just to make the important trips.

We drive ~8000 miles a year doing similar trips with a country commute. Small town, carpool with spouse, combine trips, stay home more than some.

[Tyson]

It is preferable to burn fossil fuels in ICE over the making the switch to EVs where we at least have the potential to recycle batteries?

Already here - https://www.redwoodmaterials.com/

[LennStar]

Plastics were off to a rocky start, but are much improved now no?

Hell no.

What has eluded me so far - perhaps one of the proponents of massively overhauling the U.S. infrastructure can speak to this?

Question 1:
What would the U.S. look like with an optimal infrastructure? i.e. what would the population density be? What would the typical housing look like for everyone?

Question 2:
What would the timeline be assuming everything comes up roses, everyone votes to support this, every politician finds the money to incentivize the changes?

If anyone would be able to answer that with certainty, that person would a jackpot lottery winner every few weeks.

The time frame is the easiest question: About 20 years, if you really want. 20-30 years is how long it takes to rebuild a completely war-destroyed country.
Of course it would not be perfect - it would be bloody stupid to destroy good houses build today just because they are not perfect - but close enough. Incidentally, that is roughly how long we have if we want to prevent literally billions of people losing their home to climate change.

Question 1: Anything made on this topic is a lot speculations. And they will be wrong. That is because we have an understandable problem imagining what we have never seen before.

 If you would have asked people 50 years ago about the most used method to talk to someone far away, they would have probably said TV-phones. They would have said that we will be able to talk to everyone from everywhere, while having a picture of them (in color!) at the same time.
And that is more or less true. But they would have imagined a literal TV (not a flatscreen btw.). Not that tiny technological wonder we know as smartphone, and having the ability to have those TV-talks is just a tiny, tiny and practically unimportant thing compared with all the other stuff it and the internet allows.

As far as housing goes, traditional single family houses will hopefully be out of demand, since they cost the money they really cost. Maybe earthship-like buildings will be used by those who really want that loner life.
Apart from that, density is not a usable measurement of living conditions or style. Example: How many parks will be there to dampen the effects of climate change?

What is quite sure is that some sort of multi-generation living will be more widespread. That is a trend that is already happening. Even if they are not blood-related, young and old will be living closer to each other in arrangements of e.g. "I go shopping for you, you watch out for my kids".

A VERY big part will be decided by the way we treat climate refugees. Will we welcome and integrate them? Or will we put up fully automated borders with KI controlled guns shooting automatically at the millions of people that will come every year? Will the xenophobic, control-obsessed people force a police state on us?

[Just Joe]

This seems like a good point in history to encourage everyone to limit themselves to one child...

[Paper Chaser]

It is preferable to burn fossil fuels in ICE over the making the switch to EVs where we at least have the potential to recycle batteries?
I dont think there are plans to recycle burned fossil fuels just yet.

The chassis is shared between both ICE and EV.
ICE has fuels/fluids/oils/tubes/hoses/engine/transmission.
EV has batteries and electric motor.

It's preferable in most cases to use existing vehicles rather than building new ones. Scrapping perfectly good older vehicles to buy shiny new EVs is going to be very difficult to overcome environmentally speaking. This is doubly true for most Mustachians who tend to drive more efficient options and/or put very few miles on their vehicles.

The engines, transmissions, etc of an ICE can all be recycled fairly easily. In many cases they can be reused to keep existing vehicles on the road, prolonging their life and spreading out their carbon impact further.

You're not getting the spent electrons back into a battery any sooner than you're getting the burned fuel back into an ICE. They both consume fuel, it's just a different type.

EVs have fluids for brakes and battery heating/cooling too. A Model S has 11 Liters of battery coolant. An Accord has less than 7 Liters of coolant for the engine. EVs also often have 2 AC systems in place (1 for battery and 1 for cabin), and all of the associated plumbing and extra refrigerant.

[JLee]

It is preferable to burn fossil fuels in ICE over the making the switch to EVs where we at least have the potential to recycle batteries?
I dont think there are plans to recycle burned fossil fuels just yet.

The chassis is shared between both ICE and EV.
ICE has fuels/fluids/oils/tubes/hoses/engine/transmission.
EV has batteries and electric motor.

It's preferable in most cases to use existing vehicles rather than building new ones. Scrapping perfectly good older vehicles to buy shiny new EVs is going to be very difficult to overcome environmentally speaking. This is doubly true for most Mustachians who tend to drive more efficient options.

The engines, transmissions, etc of an ICE can all be recycled fairly easily. In many cases they can be reused to keep existing vehicles on the road, prolonging their life and spreading out their carbon impact further.

You're not getting the electrons back into a battery any sooner than you're getting the fuel back into an ICE. They both consume fuel, it's just a different type.

EVs have fluids for brakes and battery heating/cooling too. A Model S has 11 Liters of battery coolant. An Accord has less than 7 Liters of coolant for the engine. EVs also often have 2 AC systems in place (1 for battery and 1 for cabin), and all of the associated plumbing and extra refrigerant.

This seems to be a nonsensical argument -- I can't think of anybody I've ever met who would scrap a car they could sell or trade.  People are not going to simply stop buying new cars entirely and maintain old ones forever, Cuba-style. Who is scrapping perfectly good older vehicles? 

You're also making unfair / unrealistic comparisons.  There is no service interval for the battery cooling fluid in my Model 3.  ICE vehicles need periodic coolant flushes, water pump replacements, and also operate under much higher temperatures and pressures, all of which result in more stress on all involved components. Brake fluid in EVs barely does anything, because the bulk of braking is does via regen (incidentally a method of recapturing energy that ICE can't do).

As far as "they both use fuel" -- last I checked, my solar system doesn't generate gasoline.

[GuitarStv]

It will be cheaper/more-efficient to recycle and replace.

Just like with plastics!

That turned out good for us, right?  Plastic recycling wasn't a giant scam, and we didn't dump so many plastics into the environment that the average person now eats 5g of plastic a week now without knowing it.

Blind faith in new technology and not looking too closely at the results has certainly worked out well so far!

Plastics were off to a rocky start, but are much improved now no? 

Hahahahahahahaha.  Wait, are you being serious?

The plastics that can be recycled are often not economically feasible to do so, a huge number of them cannot be recycled, and we have flooded the Earth with them.  It's pretty fucked up that the average person is currently eating 5g of plastics each week.  Especially as there is mounting evidence that the hormone mimicking chemicals leeched by plastics are causing some strange changes in human sexual development.

No, plastics are a huge problem.  And that kind of shows my point.  Much as the ad men will promise otherwise, there ain't no such thing as a free lunch.

Not sure I understand your position.  You would suggest we just do nothing then?

Nope.  It's vital that we do things that will address climate change.  My main concern is that we're spending too much time and effort and money trying to maintain comforts that we've grown accustomed to that are not ever going to really be sustainable.

It is preferable to burn fossil fuels in ICE over the making the switch to EVs where we at least have the potential to recycle batteries?
I dont think there are plans to recycle burned fossil fuels just yet.

The chassis is shared between both ICE and EV.
ICE has fuels/fluids/oils/tubes/hoses/engine/transmission.
EV has batteries and electric motor.

We need to fundamentally rethink the idea of vehicles for private transportation - full stop.

Is a private EV better than a private ICE vehicle?  Sure.  Is a private EV better than an ICE bus though?  My most measures, no.  Is is better than a diesel train?  Definitely no.

We're focused on optimizing a terrible choice, and that just doesn't seem very realistic to me.  We need to spend much more of our time and energy in rethinking the broken idea.

[Paper Chaser]

It is preferable to burn fossil fuels in ICE over the making the switch to EVs where we at least have the potential to recycle batteries?
I dont think there are plans to recycle burned fossil fuels just yet.

The chassis is shared between both ICE and EV.
ICE has fuels/fluids/oils/tubes/hoses/engine/transmission.
EV has batteries and electric motor.

It's preferable in most cases to use existing vehicles rather than building new ones. Scrapping perfectly good older vehicles to buy shiny new EVs is going to be very difficult to overcome environmentally speaking. This is doubly true for most Mustachians who tend to drive more efficient options.

The engines, transmissions, etc of an ICE can all be recycled fairly easily. In many cases they can be reused to keep existing vehicles on the road, prolonging their life and spreading out their carbon impact further.

You're not getting the electrons back into a battery any sooner than you're getting the fuel back into an ICE. They both consume fuel, it's just a different type.

EVs have fluids for brakes and battery heating/cooling too. A Model S has 11 Liters of battery coolant. An Accord has less than 7 Liters of coolant for the engine. EVs also often have 2 AC systems in place (1 for battery and 1 for cabin), and all of the associated plumbing and extra refrigerant.

This seems to be a nonsensical argument -- I can't think of anybody I've ever met who would scrap a car they could sell or trade.  People are not going to simply stop buying new cars entirely and maintain old ones forever, Cuba-style. Who is scrapping perfectly good older vehicles? 

You're also making unfair / unrealistic comparisons.  There is no service interval for the battery cooling fluid in my Model 3.  ICE vehicles need periodic coolant flushes, water pump replacements, and also operate under much higher temperatures and pressures, all of which result in more stress on all involved components. Brake fluid in EVs barely does anything, because the bulk of braking is does via regen (incidentally a method of recapturing energy that ICE can't do).

As far as "they both use fuel" -- last I checked, my solar system doesn't generate gasoline.

There are threads here on an increasing basis where people want to trade in their perfectly good ICEs for new EVs because they think they're automatically better for the environment. It's like the recent memes shared in this thread that are at best misguided.

I just wanted to push back on that type of thinking a bit. EVs can certainly be good. There are some coming out that I find really desirable. But they're not just a couple of wires and some laptop batteries like so many people believe. They still require lots of resources to manufacture, including some that people don't readily consider. Consumption is bad for the environment, and anything that increases consumption is going to take a long time to payoff, if it ever does. So everybody here rushing into long range EVs might be misguided in the bigger picture. Keeping existing stuff going is pretty much always going to be better environmentally than being responsible for the creation of new stuff, even if the new stuff is more efficient.

[bryan995]

It will be cheaper/more-efficient to recycle and replace.

Just like with plastics!

That turned out good for us, right?  Plastic recycling wasn't a giant scam, and we didn't dump so many plastics into the environment that the average person now eats 5g of plastic a week now without knowing it.

Blind faith in new technology and not looking too closely at the results has certainly worked out well so far!

Plastics were off to a rocky start, but are much improved now no? 

Hahahahahahahaha.  Wait, are you being serious?

The plastics that can be recycled are often not economically feasible to do so, a huge number of them cannot be recycled, and we have flooded the Earth with them.  It's pretty fucked up that the average person is currently eating 5g of plastics each week.  Especially as there is mounting evidence that the hormone mimicking chemicals leeched by plastics are causing some strange changes in human sexual development.

No, plastics are a huge problem.  And that kind of shows my point.  Much as the ad men will promise otherwise, there ain't no such thing as a free lunch.

Not sure I understand your position.  You would suggest we just do nothing then?

Nope.  It's vital that we do things that will address climate change.  My main concern is that we're spending too much time and effort and money trying to maintain comforts that we've grown accustomed to that are not ever going to really be sustainable.

It is preferable to burn fossil fuels in ICE over the making the switch to EVs where we at least have the potential to recycle batteries?
I dont think there are plans to recycle burned fossil fuels just yet.

The chassis is shared between both ICE and EV.
ICE has fuels/fluids/oils/tubes/hoses/engine/transmission.
EV has batteries and electric motor.

We need to fundamentally rethink the idea of vehicles for private transportation - full stop.

Is a private EV better than a private ICE vehicle?  Sure.  Is a private EV better than an ICE bus though?  My most measures, no.  Is is better than a diesel train?  Definitely no.

We're focused on optimizing a terrible choice, and that just doesn't seem very realistic to me.  We need to spend much more of our time and energy in rethinking the broken idea.

Ok so ban all plastics.  Now what?  Do you have a better polymer we should be using?  Its so very easy to strawman your way through life and only point out the negatives.  What is your solution? That works for 7B humans?  Of all income classes.

Bus will never work in non-dense citires.  Do you want to force all humans into dense sky-scrapers, with an assigned 48sqft per child, and 96sqft per adult .. + 12sqft for the dog?  We have public transport no? Very few opt to use it, unless forced.

EV taxis + FSD could help.  Public or private ownership, but vehicles that operate 24/7.  I'd personally buy 10 more tesla vehicles if Elon can bring that idea to fruition.

All I know is that I've done part, to the best ability that I can at the present time.  I produce 22,000kwh of electricity per year via solar, and have 2 EVs.  I an NET negative on the CA grid. You are welcome.