Author Topic: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?  (Read 539056 times)

scottish

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1300 on: November 13, 2021, 07:16:00 PM »
A Tesla model 3 SR has a 50kWh battery pack with about 250 mile range (roughly 5 miles per kWh). For reference, the average US house uses 1000kWh per month and average distance driven is 1200 miles per month. That means 240kWh per month per car. So about a 50% increase in residential power usage (assuming 2 commuters per household). The residential sector used about 40% of electricity sold in the US, so that means we’d need to increase grid capacity about 20% with current technology.

On a system-wide level, cars drive about  3200 billion miles per year, so would need 640 GWh of electricity.

Commercial/heavy duty is a separate issue. Tesla reports its semi would go 0.5 miles per kWh, and about 300 billion miles were driven by semi trucks per year. So that’s 600 GWh of electricity, or 600/3800 GWh = about 15% increase to charge trucks.

This is just a shifting of energy from oil to electricity, not a true increase (and on a per unit energy level, likely a decrease due to the higher efficiency of motors vs engines).

In the southern US, each GW of solar panels installed produces on average 1600 GWh of energy per year.  1250 GWh/1600 = 780 MW of panels. For reference, the largest solar panel system in the US is about 500 MW. So this is not an unrealistic goal.

I think I did it from the top down.     Something like this:

US electrical generating capacity = 1.2E12 W
US electrical energy = 1.2E12 J/sec * 86400 secs/day * 365 days/year = 3.78E19 Joules/year

Gasoline/diesel energy = 1.3E8 Joules/gallon
Gallons of diesel fuel per year = 44.6E9 gallons
Gallons of gasoline per year = 124E9 gallons

Petroleum fuels energy = (44.6E9 + 124E9) * 1.3E8 = 2.2E19 Joules/year

Then electrical cars are more efficient than gasoline/diesel engines.   Gasoline engine is maybe 35% efficient.   Electrical car is maybe 75% efficient.   Include distribution losses, storage losses, vehicle cabin heater, blah blah blah, maybe we can say that electric vehicles use about 50% of the energy of internal combustion vehicles.

So peak electrical generating capacity is currently 3.78E19 Joules/year, this would have to increase by 1.1E19 Joules/year.     Which is a big increase, but maybe manageable (at least outside of Texas  :-p)...      except for the capacity factor which ranges from 25% for solar up to 95% from nuclear.

So if we're doing a mass switch over to electrical vehicles, the electrical utilities better start thinking about how to build out more generating and distribution capacity.   In Canada this is a *very* slow process with a huge regulatory burden before you even get a shovel in the ground.

Abe

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1301 on: November 13, 2021, 08:49:39 PM »

I think I did it from the top down.     Something like this:

US electrical generating capacity = 1.2E12 W
US electrical energy = 1.2E12 J/sec * 86400 secs/day * 365 days/year = 3.78E19 Joules/year

Gasoline/diesel energy = 1.3E8 Joules/gallon
Gallons of diesel fuel per year = 44.6E9 gallons
Gallons of gasoline per year = 124E9 gallons

Petroleum fuels energy = (44.6E9 + 124E9) * 1.3E8 = 2.2E19 Joules/year

Then electrical cars are more efficient than gasoline/diesel engines.   Gasoline engine is maybe 35% efficient.   Electrical car is maybe 75% efficient.   Include distribution losses, storage losses, vehicle cabin heater, blah blah blah, maybe we can say that electric vehicles use about 50% of the energy of internal combustion vehicles.

So peak electrical generating capacity is currently 3.78E19 Joules/year, this would have to increase by 1.1E19 Joules/year.     Which is a big increase, but maybe manageable (at least outside of Texas  :-p)...      except for the capacity factor which ranges from 25% for solar up to 95% from nuclear.

So if we're doing a mass switch over to electrical vehicles, the electrical utilities better start thinking about how to build out more generating and distribution capacity.   In Canada this is a *very* slow process with a huge regulatory burden before you even get a shovel in the ground.

We come out to roughly the same values (~35% increase). Even in Texas we have an issue with making more distribution lines. Apparently people are all for extra energy, as long as it doesn't affect their views/property values. So while solar and wind are booming here, distribution line building is stalling due to NIMBYs. That's why I'm relying on solar + battery for my house.

GodlessCommie

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1302 on: November 14, 2021, 09:41:26 AM »
We come out to roughly the same values (~35% increase). Even in Texas we have an issue with making more distribution lines. Apparently people are all for extra energy, as long as it doesn't affect their views/property values. So while solar and wind are booming here, distribution line building is stalling due to NIMBYs. That's why I'm relying on solar + battery for my house.

Solar+storage is, like, the most Texas thing ever. Independence! Self-reliance! Rugged individualism! I don't need your stinking communist grid!

I wonder if anyone sells it like that?

LennStar

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1303 on: November 14, 2021, 10:34:06 AM »
We come out to roughly the same values (~35% increase). Even in Texas we have an issue with making more distribution lines. Apparently people are all for extra energy, as long as it doesn't affect their views/property values. So while solar and wind are booming here, distribution line building is stalling due to NIMBYs. That's why I'm relying on solar + battery for my house.

Solar+storage is, like, the most Texas thing ever. Independence! Self-reliance! Rugged individualism! I don't need your stinking communist grid!

I wonder if anyone sells it like that?

They probably don't like solar energy because it is an invention by the liberals in New Jersey and advanced as an technology by the socialist commies from Europa.

But it might actually help framing it that way, even if it is disgusting.

Loretta

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1304 on: November 14, 2021, 11:28:20 AM »
My closest shopping center just got a Tesla supercharger station setup and it is constantly charging up EVs no matter the time of day.  With gas here +$3.50 I think more smart, science-y people will be going this route.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1305 on: November 14, 2021, 11:53:35 AM »
We come out to roughly the same values (~35% increase). Even in Texas we have an issue with making more distribution lines. Apparently people are all for extra energy, as long as it doesn't affect their views/property values. So while solar and wind are booming here, distribution line building is stalling due to NIMBYs. That's why I'm relying on solar + battery for my house.

Solar+storage is, like, the most Texas thing ever. Independence! Self-reliance! Rugged individualism! I don't need your stinking communist grid!

I wonder if anyone sells it like that?

They probably don't like solar energy because it is an invention by the liberals in New Jersey and advanced as an technology by the socialist commies from Europa.

But it might actually help framing it that way, even if it is disgusting.

Point of fact: Texas had the second-most solar capacity in the US behind California, and its growth is currently faster than CA’s. Those two states currently account for more than half of all solar energy

Abe

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1306 on: November 14, 2021, 05:28:18 PM »
We come out to roughly the same values (~35% increase). Even in Texas we have an issue with making more distribution lines. Apparently people are all for extra energy, as long as it doesn't affect their views/property values. So while solar and wind are booming here, distribution line building is stalling due to NIMBYs. That's why I'm relying on solar + battery for my house.

Solar+storage is, like, the most Texas thing ever. Independence! Self-reliance! Rugged individualism! I don't need your stinking communist grid!

I wonder if anyone sells it like that?

They probably don't like solar energy because it is an invention by the liberals in New Jersey and advanced as an technology by the socialist commies from Europa.

But it might actually help framing it that way, even if it is disgusting.

Point of fact: Texas had the second-most solar capacity in the US behind California, and its growth is currently faster than CA’s. Those two states currently account for more than half of all solar energy

I hear you all. But Texas puts profit before ideology, at least for energy. Remember the governor yammering about putting extra fees on wind and solar because they “froze up” during the great freeze? Yeah that didn’t happen.

I think most people here think solar is untested (even though it’s been around for 30+ years) and unreliable. Batteries that would be practically sized for Texas houses remain beyond the reach of most households. FWIW it’s been 5 weeks since I ordered batteries and the utility is still in the process of approving installation. The solar panel is already installed and working for several months. First world problems!
« Last Edit: November 14, 2021, 05:31:44 PM by Abe »

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1307 on: November 14, 2021, 07:40:15 PM »
We come out to roughly the same values (~35% increase). Even in Texas we have an issue with making more distribution lines. Apparently people are all for extra energy, as long as it doesn't affect their views/property values. So while solar and wind are booming here, distribution line building is stalling due to NIMBYs. That's why I'm relying on solar + battery for my house.

Solar+storage is, like, the most Texas thing ever. Independence! Self-reliance! Rugged individualism! I don't need your stinking communist grid!

I wonder if anyone sells it like that?

They probably don't like solar energy because it is an invention by the liberals in New Jersey and advanced as an technology by the socialist commies from Europa.

But it might actually help framing it that way, even if it is disgusting.

Point of fact: Texas had the second-most solar capacity in the US behind California, and its growth is currently faster than CA’s. Those two states currently account for more than half of all solar energy

I hear you all. But Texas puts profit before ideology, at least for energy. Remember the governor yammering about putting extra fees on wind and solar because they “froze up” during the great freeze? Yeah that didn’t happen.

I think most people here think solar is untested (even though it’s been around for 30+ years) and unreliable. Batteries that would be practically sized for Texas houses remain beyond the reach of most households. FWIW it’s been 5 weeks since I ordered batteries and the utility is still in the process of approving installation. The solar panel is already installed and working for several months. First world problems!
I'm wishy-washy on batteries. They're so expensive. We also already have a fairly beefy generator because we didn't want to be without power for too long post hurricane. I mean, panels are going on the house in 2 weeks - maybe I'll see how this works and defer deciding on the batteries.

Abe

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1308 on: November 14, 2021, 07:49:13 PM »
We come out to roughly the same values (~35% increase). Even in Texas we have an issue with making more distribution lines. Apparently people are all for extra energy, as long as it doesn't affect their views/property values. So while solar and wind are booming here, distribution line building is stalling due to NIMBYs. That's why I'm relying on solar + battery for my house.

Solar+storage is, like, the most Texas thing ever. Independence! Self-reliance! Rugged individualism! I don't need your stinking communist grid!

I wonder if anyone sells it like that?

They probably don't like solar energy because it is an invention by the liberals in New Jersey and advanced as an technology by the socialist commies from Europa.

But it might actually help framing it that way, even if it is disgusting.

Point of fact: Texas had the second-most solar capacity in the US behind California, and its growth is currently faster than CA’s. Those two states currently account for more than half of all solar energy

I hear you all. But Texas puts profit before ideology, at least for energy. Remember the governor yammering about putting extra fees on wind and solar because they “froze up” during the great freeze? Yeah that didn’t happen.

I think most people here think solar is untested (even though it’s been around for 30+ years) and unreliable. Batteries that would be practically sized for Texas houses remain beyond the reach of most households. FWIW it’s been 5 weeks since I ordered batteries and the utility is still in the process of approving installation. The solar panel is already installed and working for several months. First world problems!
I'm wishy-washy on batteries. They're so expensive. We also already have a fairly beefy generator because we didn't want to be without power for too long post hurricane. I mean, panels are going on the house in 2 weeks - maybe I'll see how this works and defer deciding on the batteries.

If you have a whole-house generator don’t bother with the batteries for a few years. We don’t have one, and cost for both were roughly the same, so I went with the battery option for above-mentioned self-sufficiency reasons for prolonged outage. If there was a major breakdown, I’d have to stay until at least my patients could be evacuated, and potentially longer if there were mass casualties from a hurricane or flood needing medical assistance. I’m not sure if my wife would be willing to travel to another state with our son and without me. Patient evacuations can take up to a week after reserve fuel runs out at the hospitals, which are for about a week themselves. So that’s potentially 2 weeks in a collapsed infrastructure environment, or if hospitals are receiving fuel but the rest of the area isn’t, weeks for me. A generator may run out of accessible fuel by then if the NG pipes fail. Obviously most people don’t have that evacuation scenario.
« Last Edit: November 14, 2021, 07:52:33 PM by Abe »

pecunia

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1309 on: November 14, 2021, 08:13:01 PM »
[


- SNIP -

I hear you all. But Texas puts profit before ideology, at least for energy. Remember the governor yammering about putting extra fees on wind and solar because they “froze up” during the great freeze? Yeah that didn’t happen.

I think most people here think solar is untested (even though it’s been around for 30+ years) and unreliable. Batteries that would be practically sized for Texas houses remain beyond the reach of most households. FWIW it’s been 5 weeks since I ordered batteries and the utility is still in the process of approving installation. The solar panel is already installed and working for several months. First world problems!

I've never lived in Texas but I thought profit was their ideology.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1310 on: November 14, 2021, 08:22:28 PM »
Texas is first and foremost about bragging about how big Texas is.  Second they are about making sure you know they are from Texas.  Thirdly they want everything to be Texas shaped, food, decorations, belt buckles, cups, driveways, etc.  Somewhere down that list is corporations making money and not paying taxes.

Abe

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1311 on: November 14, 2021, 08:36:05 PM »
Getting off track here, but I do think being rich is a driving ideology. See: Joel Osteen, here in Houston. But there are plenty of non-profit-driven people down here too. I think most of the hot air comes from the politicians like Abbott and Cruz, and their marks (I mean supporters).

I live in Houston so a lot of transplants here like my family and friends. Definitely when you come in through the airport it’s a bit much, but in day-to-day life there’s not much bragging going on. Mostly complaining about how stupid our politicians are and what person making <$100k a year would keep voting for them.

  I do admit to having lone-star sidewalk pavers leading to the side fence, mostly because they were on sale.

I also admit to having minimal interaction with rural Texas, though my patients from outside of Houston have all been nice. Only one has complained about immigrants to me (I am obviously one).
« Last Edit: November 14, 2021, 08:42:11 PM by Abe »

GodlessCommie

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1312 on: November 15, 2021, 07:29:02 AM »
FWIW, the owner of a company that installed our panels said that he does more business with people he profiles as conservatives than liberals.

dandarc

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1313 on: November 15, 2021, 07:32:18 AM »
FWIW, the owner of a company that installed our panels said that he does more business with people he profiles as conservatives than liberals.
Wonder how the customers profile themselves.

Paper Chaser

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1314 on: November 15, 2021, 10:05:16 AM »
I guess I’m off two minds regarding how much of a bellwether the F150 Lightning will be

On one hand, if it does spectacularly well I agree it can be the moment where BEVs become mainstream that I think most of us hope for.

On the other hand if it flops I don’t think it need be the coffin nail that many are predicting. There’s a long list of why cars (ICE or BEV)  fail to sell, and most can be distilled into: too much money relative to competition; design issues/safety recalls; unreliable.

Failure would dampen future enthusiasm for the next launch, but the pickup market is too big and too damn lucrative to be ignored.

I'm not clear if these two articles are talking about the same poll, or different ones, because they have some slightly different numbers, but overall it seems like the Lightning is generating interest among retail customers:

https://carbuzz.com/news/ford-f-150-lightning-buyers-are-a-mixed-bunch
https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2021/11/09/f-150-lightning-can-strike-anywhere.html

- Ford now claims over 160k reservations
- About 25% of reservation holders that have been polled currently drive an ICE F150
- About 11% of those polled would be coming from a Tesla
- The majority of those polled would be buying their first BEV
- CA, TX and FL have the highest numbers of pre-orders by state.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1315 on: November 15, 2021, 10:50:37 AM »
[
I'm wishy-washy on batteries. They're so expensive. We also already have a fairly beefy generator because we didn't want to be without power for too long post hurricane. I mean, panels are going on the house in 2 weeks - maybe I'll see how this works and defer deciding on the batteries.

If you have a grid-tied system, and unless your local power generation is incredibly unreliable (like losing power on a weekly basis) then a small generator is both more economical and has (ironically) a lower carbon footprint than a battery pack large enough to be comparable to the generator output and last for more than a day.

It’s a tough pill to swallow for those of us that want to be grid tied but hate the idea of burning fossil fuels during the rare power outages, but that’s the conclusion I’ve reached every time I’ve tried to work the numbers. Generators are cheap and reliable and can give you power for weeks. Batteries are expensive and resource intensive and even very large (and ver expensive) packs won’t last for more than a few days, particularly if you live in northern latitudes with short winter days.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1316 on: November 15, 2021, 11:17:14 AM »
FWIW, the owner of a company that installed our panels said that he does more business with people he profiles as conservatives than liberals.
Wonder how the customers profile themselves.
or if it's simply a sample bias, like in A) there are more conservatives around and B) those who can afford solar panels are generally more well-off and well-off tend to vote conservative (after all, the system works for them, so why change it?)

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1317 on: November 15, 2021, 11:25:04 AM »
[
I'm wishy-washy on batteries. They're so expensive. We also already have a fairly beefy generator because we didn't want to be without power for too long post hurricane. I mean, panels are going on the house in 2 weeks - maybe I'll see how this works and defer deciding on the batteries.

If you have a grid-tied system, and unless your local power generation is incredibly unreliable (like losing power on a weekly basis) then a small generator is both more economical and has (ironically) a lower carbon footprint than a battery pack large enough to be comparable to the generator output and last for more than a day.

It’s a tough pill to swallow for those of us that want to be grid tied but hate the idea of burning fossil fuels during the rare power outages, but that’s the conclusion I’ve reached every time I’ve tried to work the numbers. Generators are cheap and reliable and can give you power for weeks. Batteries are expensive and resource intensive and even very large (and ver expensive) packs won’t last for more than a few days, particularly if you live in northern latitudes with short winter days.
Right - bought a 7400 running-watt generator in response to a pretty bad weather year. Not a small generator, but could have definitely gone bigger. Two week-plus outages within 4 months in our neighborhood. One was the first hurricane since 1989 to really hit us, other was a derecho (I think that is what they called it) that was even worse for our neighborhood than the hurricane, but with the damage area more limited was a shorter outage. Still sucked, but that was in January so at least it wasn't hot as hell in addition to the poor lighting at night and no fridge. Of course, since getting better prepared for this kind of thing, I've run the generator for all of an hour for real - way more aggregate time just testing it for 30 minute stretches approximately monthly.

GodlessCommie

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1318 on: November 15, 2021, 11:31:42 AM »
or if it's simply a sample bias, like in A) there are more conservatives around and B) those who can afford solar panels are generally more well-off and well-off tend to vote conservative (after all, the system works for them, so why change it?)

Our area leans liberal. Educated professionals tend to vote Democratic, and they (we) are the wealthy ones. Even with a rather dramatic swing to the right that happened this year, Dems won handily.

pecunia

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1319 on: November 15, 2021, 04:10:20 PM »
[
I'm wishy-washy on batteries. They're so expensive. We also already have a fairly beefy generator because we didn't want to be without power for too long post hurricane. I mean, panels are going on the house in 2 weeks - maybe I'll see how this works and defer deciding on the batteries.

If you have a grid-tied system, and unless your local power generation is incredibly unreliable (like losing power on a weekly basis) then a small generator is both more economical and has (ironically) a lower carbon footprint than a battery pack large enough to be comparable to the generator output and last for more than a day.

Generators can be rebuilt.  I think once batteries are gone they need to be replaced.

It’s a tough pill to swallow for those of us that want to be grid tied but hate the idea of burning fossil fuels during the rare power outages, but that’s the conclusion I’ve reached every time I’ve tried to work the numbers. Generators are cheap and reliable and can give you power for weeks. Batteries are expensive and resource intensive and even very large (and ver expensive) packs won’t last for more than a few days, particularly if you live in northern latitudes with short winter days.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1320 on: November 16, 2021, 01:41:39 AM »
What you described is only true for batteries without solar.

An appropriately sized solar and battery storage system can power you home indefinitely during prolonged power outages. Where as generator will eventually run out of fuel.

Batteries also have the benefit reducing your power bill by reducing grid energy use during peak periods.
« Last Edit: November 16, 2021, 01:44:09 AM by gooki »

JLee

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1321 on: November 16, 2021, 06:32:09 AM »
What you described is only true for batteries without solar.

An appropriately sized solar and battery storage system can power you home indefinitely during prolonged power outages. Where as generator will eventually run out of fuel.

Batteries also have the benefit reducing your power bill by reducing grid energy use during peak periods.

Generators also require surprisingly frequent oil changes when they’re actually running.

GodlessCommie

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1322 on: November 16, 2021, 07:28:13 AM »
An appropriately sized solar and battery storage system can power you home indefinitely during prolonged power outages. Where as generator will eventually run out of fuel.

In high latitudes, appropriately sized for the winter is terribly oversized for the rest of the seasons, and, thus, very expensive. A combination of high heating load + short days + low sun really kills it.

Closer to the equator - sure, indefinite is easy to achieve.

Paper Chaser

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1323 on: November 16, 2021, 07:37:22 AM »

An appropriately sized solar and battery storage system can power you home indefinitely during prolonged power outages. Where as generator will eventually run out of fuel

For less than batteries alone, a "whole house" or "standby" generator can be connected to a home's natural gas supply, so that it never runs out of fuel (as long as the utility is supplying it).

It's not going to work for everybody, but as explained solar doesn't work for everybody either. Most of the places where solar gets hard have NG available.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1324 on: November 16, 2021, 07:57:56 AM »
An appropriately sized solar and battery storage system can power you home indefinitely during prolonged power outages. Where as generator will eventually run out of fuel.

Do you actually have any hands on knowledge with what "appropriately sized" is, or are you just handwaving here based on "Oh, yeah, solar and battery will let you run grid down indefinitely" theory?  Your sentiment is exceedingly common among people who've never dealt with the realities of an off-grid power system.

I can give you some concrete data on that, at least where we live.  My office has a 5kW nameplate system, in what started as an attempt to do exactly what you're talking about, and on a bad day, will generate less than 1kWh in the winter (inversions, so heavy thick clouds, often fog, no wind that I could use as an alternative).  My office idles at about 2kWh/day, with the inverter idle draw, internet and property network radios, monitoring hardware, etc.  If I'm actually working in there, I need 3.5kWh if I don't use any heat (or use propane heat), and a bit more for electrical heating (I've got a heated foot pad that helps a ton without having to heat the whole space up).  My ~10kWh battery bank handles most of the year just fine, but to run through winter without a generator, I'd need closer to 50kWh (it's always cold when these happen, so effective capacity is rather lower than nameplate).  I guarantee the 4-5 gallons a winter I run through my generator during those weeks is less impact, across the board, than a large battery bank that only gets significantly cycled a few times a year would be.

My house system is 15.9kW nameplate.  Worst generation so far this year was 2.5kWh on one of those nasty winter inversion days.  Idle draw on the house (pure electric house, local well, and most of our transportation energy comes from electric as well) is 12-15kWh/day from things like freezers (and Dishy, that Starlink terminal is power hungry and probably could stand a timer on it), plus whatever we use.  Before you say, "Install a bigger system, yours is obviously undersized," it's produced 21MWh this year so far, on a home power consumption of about 16MWh.  It is rather oversized already.

If you'd like to do the math from that and figure out how many hundreds of kWh we need to run those loads indefinitely grid down, you're welcome to, but a generator is an awful lot better solution than the sort of radically oversized solar one would need around here for year-round running.  I also can't interconnect that much solar to the grid (we have a 25kVA transformer which limits, under local power company policies, us to 25kW nameplate panel), etc.  Even my original system design, with 100kWh or so of lead, had a generator inlet port to handle extended winter running.  It's just not feasible without it, in most climates.

It's a cute sentiment.  It's just entirely wrong, in practice, for almost all areas.  And it involves spending tens or hundreds of thousands of extra dollars compared to a generator.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1325 on: November 16, 2021, 10:20:04 AM »
So, maybe the play is wait until it is vehicle replacement time and look for a used one with built-in "power your house" functionality. Then the battery is likely as large as you need it to be, and also not just powering your house in an outage or overnight depending how far you want to take this.

I think that might be a thing that is available on the used market in a decade or two. Probably a stupid idea - I've been having a lot of those lately.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1326 on: November 16, 2021, 11:56:41 AM »
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/16/lucid-ceo-says-the-company-could-eventually-be-valued-like-tesla.html

Three largest US automakers by market cap will shortly be all EV only.

TSLA
RIVN
LCID

Paper Chaser

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1327 on: November 16, 2021, 11:59:44 AM »
So, maybe the play is wait until it is vehicle replacement time and look for a used one with built-in "power your house" functionality. Then the battery is likely as large as you need it to be, and also not just powering your house in an outage or overnight depending how far you want to take this.

I think that might be a thing that is available on the used market in a decade or two. Probably a stupid idea - I've been having a lot of those lately.

The Ford F-150 hybrid currently has this capability. And the all electric Lightning can power your home for "up to" 3 days if it starts with a full charge.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1328 on: November 16, 2021, 12:01:11 PM »
So, maybe the play is wait until it is vehicle replacement time and look for a used one with built-in "power your house" functionality. Then the battery is likely as large as you need it to be, and also not just powering your house in an outage or overnight depending how far you want to take this.

I think that might be a thing that is available on the used market in a decade or two. Probably a stupid idea - I've been having a lot of those lately.

Didn't a lot of people use F150 inverters to help out when Texas lost its power last Winter?  I don't see any reason why you couldn't do this with an all electric car and an inverter system.  Of course voltage and  frequency have to be right.  IF you have utility power, you would need to be disconnected.  If you are still connected your system you would need to either shut off or synchronize when power is returned.  You do not want to back-feed to any linemen making repairs.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1329 on: November 16, 2021, 12:03:51 PM »
So, maybe the play is wait until it is vehicle replacement time and look for a used one with built-in "power your house" functionality. Then the battery is likely as large as you need it to be, and also not just powering your house in an outage or overnight depending how far you want to take this.

I think that might be a thing that is available on the used market in a decade or two. Probably a stupid idea - I've been having a lot of those lately.

The Ford F-150 hybrid currently has this capability. And the all electric Lightning can power your home for "up to" 3 days if it starts with a full charge.

this is correct.  i guess in theory if i were still commuting i could game my solar net generation system further by taking power from work(its free currently) back to my house to power my house at night and never pay for electricity again.

say you dump 30kWh per week day back to the grid at 13.3c per kWh thats 30*5*46*.133  almost 1k a year
« Last Edit: November 16, 2021, 12:07:53 PM by boarder42 »

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1330 on: November 16, 2021, 12:08:00 PM »
So, maybe the play is wait until it is vehicle replacement time and look for a used one with built-in "power your house" functionality. Then the battery is likely as large as you need it to be, and also not just powering your house in an outage or overnight depending how far you want to take this.

I think that might be a thing that is available on the used market in a decade or two. Probably a stupid idea - I've been having a lot of those lately.

The Ford F-150 hybrid currently has this capability. And the all electric Lightning can power your home for "up to" 3 days if it starts with a full charge.

this is correct.  i guess in theory if i were still commuting i could game my solar net generation system further by taking power from work back to my house to power my house at night and never pay for electricity again.

I love the idea of transporting electricity via roads. 

boarder42

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1331 on: November 16, 2021, 12:27:32 PM »
So, maybe the play is wait until it is vehicle replacement time and look for a used one with built-in "power your house" functionality. Then the battery is likely as large as you need it to be, and also not just powering your house in an outage or overnight depending how far you want to take this.

I think that might be a thing that is available on the used market in a decade or two. Probably a stupid idea - I've been having a lot of those lately.

The Ford F-150 hybrid currently has this capability. And the all electric Lightning can power your home for "up to" 3 days if it starts with a full charge.

this is correct.  i guess in theory if i were still commuting i could game my solar net generation system further by taking power from work back to my house to power my house at night and never pay for electricity again.

I love the idea of transporting electricity via roads.

super efficient right?  haha just a mild loop hole that could benefit a commuter - commuting should be done away with but thats a different story.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1332 on: November 16, 2021, 01:01:14 PM »
So, maybe the play is wait until it is vehicle replacement time and look for a used one with built-in "power your house" functionality. Then the battery is likely as large as you need it to be, and also not just powering your house in an outage or overnight depending how far you want to take this.

I think that might be a thing that is available on the used market in a decade or two. Probably a stupid idea - I've been having a lot of those lately.

The Ford F-150 hybrid currently has this capability. And the all electric Lightning can power your home for "up to" 3 days if it starts with a full charge.

this is correct.  i guess in theory if i were still commuting i could game my solar net generation system further by taking power from work back to my house to power my house at night and never pay for electricity again.

I love the idea of transporting electricity via roads.

super efficient right?  haha just a mild loop hole that could benefit a commuter - commuting should be done away with but thats a different story.
We have a free level-3 charger somewhere in this office complex. Haven't tried it yet because it doesn't look too convenient and I'd be a dick if I plugged my small-batter leaf in there and just left it all day. PAlthough today I had to park pretty far away anyway. But if I could power my home directly when I got home . . .

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1333 on: November 16, 2021, 02:36:45 PM »
An appropriately sized solar and battery storage system can power you home indefinitely during prolonged power outages. Where as generator will eventually run out of fuel.

Do you actually have any hands on knowledge with what "appropriately sized" is, or are you just handwaving here based on "Oh, yeah, solar and battery will let you run grid down indefinitely" theory?  Your sentiment is exceedingly common among people who've never dealt with the realities of an off-grid power system.

Yes. Just adjust your usage patterns in an emergency. Typical worst day is 1x panel size. Average day is 4x panel size. Panels are cheap. 10kw of panels and a single power wall would allow a decent level of living during an extend power outage for most homes.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1334 on: November 16, 2021, 02:38:52 PM »
Quote
The Ford F-150 hybrid currently has this capability. And the all electric Lightning can power your home for "up to" 3 days if it starts with a full charge.

Just be aware, the v2h features is likely to be an optional purchase, not standard equipment, and will require additional electrical work at your home.

So it'll be interesting to see what is more effective. F150 V2H vs a smaller home battery.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1335 on: November 16, 2021, 02:42:55 PM »
Quote
The Ford F-150 hybrid currently has this capability. And the all electric Lightning can power your home for "up to" 3 days if it starts with a full charge.

Just be aware, the v2h features is likely to be an optional purchase, not standard equipment, and will require additional electrical work at your home.

So it'll be interesting to see what is more effective. F150 V2H vs a smaller home battery.

i think it comes with the inverter - likely just need a disconnect

gooki

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1336 on: November 16, 2021, 02:46:34 PM »
Quote
The Ford F-150 hybrid currently has this capability. And the all electric Lightning can power your home for "up to" 3 days if it starts with a full charge.

Just be aware, the v2h features is likely to be an optional purchase, not standard equipment, and will require additional electrical work at your home.

So it'll be interesting to see what is more effective. F150 V2H vs a smaller home battery.

i think it comes with the inverter - likely just need a disconnect

That's my assumption.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1337 on: November 16, 2021, 02:52:39 PM »
I'd vote for on-board inverter that can output to a 220V /20 amp locking plug. But then I already have my house set up for that and a cord that can handle it. And interlock to prevent killing a line-worker of course.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1338 on: November 16, 2021, 03:03:15 PM »
I'd vote for on-board inverter that can output to a 220V /20 amp locking plug. But then I already have my house set up for that and a cord that can handle it. And interlock to prevent killing a line-worker of course.

That already exists, but 30 amps instead of 20 -- https://www.ford.com/cmslibs/content/dam/brand_ford/en_us/brand/trucks/f150/2020/Mediakit/CHUB01150_F150ProPower_SP_C113.pdf

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1339 on: November 16, 2021, 03:05:52 PM »
I'd vote for on-board inverter that can output to a 220V /20 amp locking plug. But then I already have my house set up for that and a cord that can handle it. And interlock to prevent killing a line-worker of course.

That already exists, but 30 amps instead of 20 -- https://www.ford.com/cmslibs/content/dam/brand_ford/en_us/brand/trucks/f150/2020/Mediakit/CHUB01150_F150ProPower_SP_C113.pdf
Shit - is my next car going to be a truck?

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1340 on: November 16, 2021, 03:39:21 PM »
Yes. Just adjust your usage patterns in an emergency. Typical worst day is 1x panel size. Average day is 4x panel size. Panels are cheap. 10kw of panels and a single power wall would allow a decent level of living during an extend power outage for most homes.

Try 0.15x panel size for a bad day.  Or less.

i think it comes with the inverter - likely just need a disconnect

And interconnect agreements with your power company, potentially.  It depends on how they consider it and how things are set up.  On paper, a transfer switch should keep the power company happy, but V2G regulations are... undefined.  If you're going to do it, definitely just get a transfer switch with a generator inlet box and don't tell them what you're hooking up to it.  This means you won't be able to export power to the grid, but that's probably fine.


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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1341 on: November 16, 2021, 07:32:23 PM »
An appropriately sized solar and battery storage system can power you home indefinitely during prolonged power outages. Where as generator will eventually run out of fuel.

Do you actually have any hands on knowledge with what "appropriately sized" is, or are you just handwaving here based on "Oh, yeah, solar and battery will let you run grid down indefinitely" theory?  Your sentiment is exceedingly common among people who've never dealt with the realities of an off-grid power system.

I can give you some concrete data on that, at least where we live.  My office has a 5kW nameplate system, in what started as an attempt to do exactly what you're talking about, and on a bad day, will generate less than 1kWh in the winter (inversions, so heavy thick clouds, often fog, no wind that I could use as an alternative).  My office idles at about 2kWh/day, with the inverter idle draw, internet and property network radios, monitoring hardware, etc.  If I'm actually working in there, I need 3.5kWh if I don't use any heat (or use propane heat), and a bit more for electrical heating (I've got a heated foot pad that helps a ton without having to heat the whole space up).  My ~10kWh battery bank handles most of the year just fine, but to run through winter without a generator, I'd need closer to 50kWh (it's always cold when these happen, so effective capacity is rather lower than nameplate).  I guarantee the 4-5 gallons a winter I run through my generator during those weeks is less impact, across the board, than a large battery bank that only gets significantly cycled a few times a year would be.

My house system is 15.9kW nameplate.  Worst generation so far this year was 2.5kWh on one of those nasty winter inversion days.  Idle draw on the house (pure electric house, local well, and most of our transportation energy comes from electric as well) is 12-15kWh/day from things like freezers (and Dishy, that Starlink terminal is power hungry and probably could stand a timer on it), plus whatever we use.  Before you say, "Install a bigger system, yours is obviously undersized," it's produced 21MWh this year so far, on a home power consumption of about 16MWh.  It is rather oversized already.

If you'd like to do the math from that and figure out how many hundreds of kWh we need to run those loads indefinitely grid down, you're welcome to, but a generator is an awful lot better solution than the sort of radically oversized solar one would need around here for year-round running.  I also can't interconnect that much solar to the grid (we have a 25kVA transformer which limits, under local power company policies, us to 25kW nameplate panel), etc.  Even my original system design, with 100kWh or so of lead, had a generator inlet port to handle extended winter running.  It's just not feasible without it, in most climates.

It's a cute sentiment.  It's just entirely wrong, in practice, for almost all areas.  And it involves spending tens or hundreds of thousands of extra dollars compared to a generator.

Are you talking about a gasoline generator?    I've started looking into a natural gas generator, but I haven't found too much info so far, other than what seems a ridiculously short operational life of about 3000 hours, and they're a lot quieter than a gasoline generator.   

It seems to me natural gas should be lower maintenance than a gasoline generator - you don't need to worry about contaminated fuel and methane burns more cleanly than gasoline...    On the other hand, who says the natural gas supply will be working if we're having extended power outages.    And on the third hand, if there's no natural gas I can't run the furnace anyway.

Another question, when you're working on your Volt - did you find a safety course for disconnecting the power system?   

pecunia

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1342 on: November 16, 2021, 07:44:29 PM »
An appropriately sized solar and battery storage system can power you home indefinitely during prolonged power outages. Where as generator will eventually run out of fuel.

Do you actually have any hands on knowledge with what "appropriately sized" is, or are you just handwaving here based on "Oh, yeah, solar and battery will let you run grid down indefinitely" theory?  Your sentiment is exceedingly common among people who've never dealt with the realities of an off-grid power system.

I can give you some concrete data on that, at least where we live.  My office has a 5kW nameplate system, in what started as an attempt to do exactly what you're talking about, and on a bad day, will generate less than 1kWh in the winter (inversions, so heavy thick clouds, often fog, no wind that I could use as an alternative).  My office idles at about 2kWh/day, with the inverter idle draw, internet and property network radios, monitoring hardware, etc.  If I'm actually working in there, I need 3.5kWh if I don't use any heat (or use propane heat), and a bit more for electrical heating (I've got a heated foot pad that helps a ton without having to heat the whole space up).  My ~10kWh battery bank handles most of the year just fine, but to run through winter without a generator, I'd need closer to 50kWh (it's always cold when these happen, so effective capacity is rather lower than nameplate).  I guarantee the 4-5 gallons a winter I run through my generator during those weeks is less impact, across the board, than a large battery bank that only gets significantly cycled a few times a year would be.

My house system is 15.9kW nameplate.  Worst generation so far this year was 2.5kWh on one of those nasty winter inversion days.  Idle draw on the house (pure electric house, local well, and most of our transportation energy comes from electric as well) is 12-15kWh/day from things like freezers (and Dishy, that Starlink terminal is power hungry and probably could stand a timer on it), plus whatever we use.  Before you say, "Install a bigger system, yours is obviously undersized," it's produced 21MWh this year so far, on a home power consumption of about 16MWh.  It is rather oversized already.

If you'd like to do the math from that and figure out how many hundreds of kWh we need to run those loads indefinitely grid down, you're welcome to, but a generator is an awful lot better solution than the sort of radically oversized solar one would need around here for year-round running.  I also can't interconnect that much solar to the grid (we have a 25kVA transformer which limits, under local power company policies, us to 25kW nameplate panel), etc.  Even my original system design, with 100kWh or so of lead, had a generator inlet port to handle extended winter running.  It's just not feasible without it, in most climates.

It's a cute sentiment.  It's just entirely wrong, in practice, for almost all areas.  And it involves spending tens or hundreds of thousands of extra dollars compared to a generator.

Are you talking about a gasoline generator?    I've started looking into a natural gas generator, but I haven't found too much info so far, other than what seems a ridiculously short operational life of about 3000 hours, and they're a lot quieter than a gasoline generator.   

It seems to me natural gas should be lower maintenance than a gasoline generator - you don't need to worry about contaminated fuel and methane burns more cleanly than gasoline...    On the other hand, who says the natural gas supply will be working if we're having extended power outages.    And on the third hand, if there's no natural gas I can't run the furnace anyway.

Another question, when you're working on your Volt - did you find a safety course for disconnecting the power system?   

Quite a few years ago when OPEC was playing games with America's fuel supply my cousin swapped his truck over to run on propane.  He explained several benefits to me at the time 1) no road tax which lessened cost 2) longer engine longevity

This link says propane will give greater life to an engine.  I assume you would have similar benefits with natural gas.

https://northwestpropane.com/what-effect-will-an-alternative-fuel-system-have-on-the-durability-of-my-engine/

Syonyk

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1343 on: November 16, 2021, 08:24:27 PM »
Are you talking about a gasoline generator?    I've started looking into a natural gas generator, but I haven't found too much info so far, other than what seems a ridiculously short operational life of about 3000 hours, and they're a lot quieter than a gasoline generator.   

My office generator is gasoline, yes.  Natural gas generators are nice if you've got a CH4 grid laying around, I don't, and propane is a pain compared to gas (which I keep around the property).  You can't run a typical propane generator conversion on vapor, only on the raw liquid, and you've got to have the ability to gasify it, which in the dead of winter is hard to come by.

Though... 3000 hours is pretty normal for an engine, and honestly remarkably good for a generator - that's going to be under a significant fraction of rated load.  Most aircraft engines have a TBO of 2500 hours or so, and 3000 hours on a car engine, at 60mph, is 180,000 miles.  Yes, they typically last longer, but not at rated power.  If you ask a natural gas generator to make 5-15% of rated power, it'll probably last a lot longer than 3000 hours as well.  However, around 4 months of continuous, full power operation, you might want to consider alternatives to a generator, like "An Amish Way of Life" or something.

Quote
It seems to me natural gas should be lower maintenance than a gasoline generator - you don't need to worry about contaminated fuel and methane burns more cleanly than gasoline...    On the other hand, who says the natural gas supply will be working if we're having extended power outages.    And on the third hand, if there's no natural gas I can't run the furnace anyway.

If you've got NG and consider it reliable (Texas argues that the whole natural gas/electrical grid tie is a lot closer than most people are willing to consider, and I agree that they're very closely tied), it's a nice option.  It certainly burns clean.  The sweet spot, if you don't care about money, is probably a diesel genset with natural gas augmentation.  That's a diesel generator that can have natural gas flowing into the intake, and will proportionally cut the diesel flow as needed.  You still need a shot of diesel for ignition, but it can be a sub-idle fuel flow (it's really just serving as a spark plug at that point, unless you've actually got spark plugs in the system as well).  If the NG dies off, you can still run diesel.  But this is "megawatt+ class data center backup generators," not your typical home generator, unless you do something crazy like convert an old truck engine into your standby generator.  Which a 7.3 would be entirely well suited to, if you don't care about weight...

Quote
Another question, when you're working on your Volt - did you find a safety course for disconnecting the power system?   

Eh?  Nothing I've had to do so far involves disconnecting the high voltage system, and while some of the stuff I've done should have involved disconnecting the 12V system, I didn't.  I really hate resetting radio presets, you know?

Quite a few years ago when OPEC was playing games with America's fuel supply my cousin swapped his truck over to run on propane.  He explained several benefits to me at the time 1) no road tax which lessened cost 2) longer engine longevity

This link says propane will give greater life to an engine.  I assume you would have similar benefits with natural gas.

Yeah, propane/CH4 burns cleaner and doesn't crud up the oil like gas does, so the engine should last longer.

Propane is also nice for infrequently used property motors - there are a bunch around the hill that are propane converted because when they run 2-3h/yr, if that, gas is more trouble than it's worth.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1344 on: November 17, 2021, 03:32:07 AM »
Quote
The Ford F-150 hybrid currently has this capability. And the all electric Lightning can power your home for "up to" 3 days if it starts with a full charge.

Just be aware, the v2h features is likely to be an optional purchase, not standard equipment, and will require additional electrical work at your home.

So it'll be interesting to see what is more effective. F150 V2H vs a smaller home battery.

The V2H capability requires Ford's 80A "Charge Station Pro" which is included with Lightnings when the customer chooses the big "extended range" battery pack. It's optional for buyers who don't get the big pack.

https://www.carscoops.com/2021/05/how-the-new-ford-f-150-lightning-can-help-you-keep-the-lights-of-your-house-always-on/

They make it sound like no additional hardware would be needed:

https://www.motortrend.com/news/fords-charge-station-pro-first-vehicle-to-grid-charger/

"At launch the truck will come with a corded charger that can plug into a 110- or 240-volt socket for level 1 or 2 charging. F-150 Lightning models ordered with the extended-range battery will come standard with Ford Charge Station Pro, which is capable of charging at a rate of 19.2 kW—that's as much as double some Level 2 charger rates. This charger obviously must be professionally installed and includes the same safety hardware to prevent backcharging the grid and endangering line workers repairing storm damage. The details options for actually powering the grid via vehicle-to-grid charging may vary regionally."

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1345 on: November 17, 2021, 06:26:49 AM »
We come out to roughly the same values (~35% increase). Even in Texas we have an issue with making more distribution lines. Apparently people are all for extra energy, as long as it doesn't affect their views/property values. So while solar and wind are booming here, distribution line building is stalling due to NIMBYs. That's why I'm relying on solar + battery for my house.

Solar+storage is, like, the most Texas thing ever. Independence! Self-reliance! Rugged individualism! I don't need your stinking communist grid!

I wonder if anyone sells it like that?

I have been in a series of conversations with left-leaning Texan friends and relatives. My attempts to persuade them to install solar panels on their roofs typically sound like, "You saw how last winter went, and you've learned that the people in power are not responding in any meaningful way. The COVID crisis was a chance for many of them to make statements to the effect that they would prefer you die to their pursuing any meaningful public policy." Then I ask them to install solar + storage.

So far, it hasn't worked.

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1346 on: November 17, 2021, 06:46:56 AM »
We come out to roughly the same values (~35% increase). Even in Texas we have an issue with making more distribution lines. Apparently people are all for extra energy, as long as it doesn't affect their views/property values. So while solar and wind are booming here, distribution line building is stalling due to NIMBYs. That's why I'm relying on solar + battery for my house.

Solar+storage is, like, the most Texas thing ever. Independence! Self-reliance! Rugged individualism! I don't need your stinking communist grid!

I wonder if anyone sells it like that?

I have been in a series of conversations with left-leaning Texan friends and relatives. My attempts to persuade them to install solar panels on their roofs typically sound like, "You saw how last winter went, and you've learned that the people in power are not responding in any meaningful way. The COVID crisis was a chance for many of them to make statements to the effect that they would prefer you die to their pursuing any meaningful public policy." Then I ask them to install solar + storage.

So far, it hasn't worked.

Would solar have helped in Texas in that example?  Honest question, I don’t know. Seems like storage would have helped for a short term, but in times of significant outages is solar really a reliable backup for inclement weather?

AlanStache

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1347 on: November 17, 2021, 07:18:27 AM »
...
Would solar have helped in Texas in that example?  Honest question, I don’t know. Seems like storage would have helped for a short term, but in times of significant outages is solar really a reliable backup for inclement weather?

I think you need to look at the utility of storage under (at least) to circumstances
1) normal day to day usage
2) serious emergency where normal life is disrupted.

If you are concerned about #2, then you need to look at what your no-shit-life and death power needs are.  Like in a large scale post hurricane black out you dont need to size your storage so that you can run the cloths dryer/electric oven and plasma TV all at the same time for 10hr/day, and internet would likely be out so no working from home.  In case #2 it would be good to have some refrigeration (non-issue in texas last winter), lights, cell phone charging, maybe some limited AC and medical devices. 

Chris22

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1348 on: November 17, 2021, 07:50:04 AM »
...
Would solar have helped in Texas in that example?  Honest question, I don’t know. Seems like storage would have helped for a short term, but in times of significant outages is solar really a reliable backup for inclement weather?

I think you need to look at the utility of storage under (at least) to circumstances
1) normal day to day usage
2) serious emergency where normal life is disrupted.

If you are concerned about #2, then you need to look at what your no-shit-life and death power needs are.  Like in a large scale post hurricane black out you dont need to size your storage so that you can run the cloths dryer/electric oven and plasma TV all at the same time for 10hr/day, and internet would likely be out so no working from home.  In case #2 it would be good to have some refrigeration (non-issue in texas last winter), lights, cell phone charging, maybe some limited AC and medical devices.

Understand all that. But the question remains, how long will storage work for?  I don’t know about Texas, but here in Chicago my requirements are 1 HVAC, 2 sump pump, and potentially 3 refrigeration (seasonal) before all else. But how long can storage run 1 and 2?  I don’t know the answer to that. If it’s a week, okay, great. If it’s 24 hours, well that probably isn’t sufficient as an emergency measure.

And frankly, if you are encouraging people to adopt solar/storage as an emergency measure I think it’s fair to understand that. I have a gas generator I can manually activate, I paid $400 (it was an open box return, retail was $800) and if I want to be truly effective, a manual switch and panel to back feed my system is probably another $500-1k. It takes 8gal every 11 hours at 50% capacity, so figure $52/day in gas (@$3/gal) to run it. That’s a small fraction of the cost of a solar/storage installation. I’ve looked into solar for my house, payback estimates range from 11-19 years. My solution assumes gas will be available, true.

Paper Chaser

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Re: Electric Cars: Can they finally become popular in the United States?
« Reply #1349 on: November 17, 2021, 08:30:24 AM »
...
Would solar have helped in Texas in that example?  Honest question, I don’t know. Seems like storage would have helped for a short term, but in times of significant outages is solar really a reliable backup for inclement weather?

I think you need to look at the utility of storage under (at least) to circumstances
1) normal day to day usage
2) serious emergency where normal life is disrupted.

If you are concerned about #2, then you need to look at what your no-shit-life and death power needs are.  Like in a large scale post hurricane black out you dont need to size your storage so that you can run the cloths dryer/electric oven and plasma TV all at the same time for 10hr/day, and internet would likely be out so no working from home.  In case #2 it would be good to have some refrigeration (non-issue in texas last winter), lights, cell phone charging, maybe some limited AC and medical devices.

Understand all that. But the question remains, how long will storage work for?  I don’t know about Texas, but here in Chicago my requirements are 1 HVAC, 2 sump pump, and potentially 3 refrigeration (seasonal) before all else. But how long can storage run 1 and 2?  I don’t know the answer to that. If it’s a week, okay, great. If it’s 24 hours, well that probably isn’t sufficient as an emergency measure.

And frankly, if you are encouraging people to adopt solar/storage as an emergency measure I think it’s fair to understand that. I have a gas generator I can manually activate, I paid $400 (it was an open box return, retail was $800) and if I want to be truly effective, a manual switch and panel to back feed my system is probably another $500-1k. It takes 8gal every 11 hours at 50% capacity, so figure $52/day in gas (@$3/gal) to run it. That’s a small fraction of the cost of a solar/storage installation. I’ve looked into solar for my house, payback estimates range from 11-19 years. My solution assumes gas will be available, true.

With enough solar panels you can theoretically go completely off-grid and be fully energy independent. The question then becomes, "What is enough solar panels"? Southern parts of the US, particularly the SW are ideal solar locations. But if you live basically within 2 states of the Canadian border you're going to need tons of panels and that gets very expensive very quickly:


The places with lighter colors on that map don't get enough hours of high-intensity sun to really make solar work well and remain cost effective.

Something like a Tesla Powerwall alone ($8500 before installation) probably lasts 12-15hrs in an outage. But it can only store energy from like 8kw of solar panels. If you have more solar than that, you'll need multiple Powerwall modules ($$$$$$):

https://southern-energy.com/guide-to-tesla-powerwall/
« Last Edit: November 17, 2021, 08:34:12 AM by Paper Chaser »

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!