Economic Reparations from China?

[nereo]

Filing a lawsuit and winning one are two very different things.

Winning a lawsuit against another sovereign country is even more difficult, and a US State (not the federal USA) is even more unlikely.

in other words: it's all posturing and symbolic.

Agree Nereo, mostly symbolic.

However, remember Lockerbie Pan Am 103?

There were only 270 victims for that plane disaster...

https://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/africa/10/31/libya.payment/index.html

It's not without president, to be sure - but intent is clearly a key factor.  Pan Am 103 was intentionally destroyed with support from the Liberian government under Gaddafi.

Not doing enough to contain the virus/lying about it is a far cry from actively trying to infect other countries. 

[maizefolk]

Consider also the relative balance of power (economic, military, and international-political-capital) between the USA and Libya in 1988.

Then consider the relative balance of those same factors between the USA and China in 2020.

[JGS1980]

As improbable as this seems, I think we will hear more and more about this reparation issue once all the dust settles.

Missouri becomes first state to sue China over COVID-19

usatoday

15 hours ago

 Missouri filed suit against China, seeking damages for “the enormous loss of life, human suffering, and economic turmoil” from COVID-19.

The Chinese think the virus originated from the US military.

Will Wuhan countersue?

Globalization led to the amazing surge in the Chinese economy over the last 30 years because rich nation industries slowly but surely determined they could sustainably make more money by shipping those jobs to China.

The whole sustainably argument is proven bunk right now. China may decide to cut their losses and accept a settlement when all the madness is controlled.  I saw a bloomberg article yesterday about Europe souring on Chinese posturing during this pandemic. US companies are talking about diversifying their logistics chains as well.

China may well end up being the biggest loser of this whole debacle even if they control the viral spread within their own borders.

[nereo]

From where I sit the US seems poised to be a big loser as well.  We've (again) pissed off the G7, had the most cases of any country to date (far more than China per capita), exported sick immigrants, refused to fund teh WHO during a pandemic -- all while pushing trade wars few wanted.

Three months our fragmented healthcare system is far behind most other developed countries in terms of testing, and with a general lack of top-down leadership the populace in many areas has had about as much as they care (or are financially able) to stand, opening the door for another wave of infections in the coming weeks.

[JGS1980]

From where I sit the US seems poised to be a big loser as well.  We've (again) pissed off the G7, had the most cases of any country to date (far more than China per capita), exported sick immigrants, refused to fund teh WHO during a pandemic -- all while pushing trade wars few wanted.

Three months our fragmented healthcare system is far behind most other developed countries in terms of testing, and with a general lack of top-down leadership the populace in many areas has had about as much as they care (or are financially able) to stand, opening the door for another wave of infections in the coming weeks.

I agree wholeheartedly with you nereo. That might be a good thread to start as well. "The Biggest Loser -Coronavirus Edition". My first vote goes to Italy, but USA is coming on fast. Honorable mention to "Rugged Individuality"

[JGS1980]

I could foresee countries that have China debt wanting to re-negotiate that debt on more favorable terms.

I would also be interested in seeing whether any international action can be taken to reduce the chances of the next deadly animal cross-over virus coming out of the Chinese wet markets.

Renegotiation of debt seems like a possibility. Even a 1% drop in servicing that 1.1 Trillion Dollars in debt would make a dent in our yearly deficit.

C'mon people, I didn't say this was likely or even possible. This is a thought exercise.

In response to Maizeman's 3 big barriers:
1) There is not positive modern precedents for reparations between nations even after wars.

--> all of this is unprecedented, we will need a new playbook for global epidemics from now on...and appropriate penalties to avoid "moral hazard".

--> on the other hand, some would say they have been punished enough already. China will already have to deal with a global economic slowdown that they caused, and will also have to handle lots of countries deciding to manufacture "essential" supplies at home from now on.
 
2) China can point to the fact that they and their neighbors acted to effectively contain the virus so the human and economic cost to Europe and America is because we did not take effective action.

--> that is true, but effective action would not have been necessary to begin with if China had effectively squashed this concern at week 2 or 3 of the outbreak.

3) How exactly would any reparations be extracted from China? (Short of war between nuclear armed belligerents.)

--> see above renegotiation/cancelling of debt. This has been multiple times in the last 100 years during times of economic upheaval.

Called It!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/30/trump-china-coronavirus-retaliation/

[nereo]

Given all the random stuff Trump says, I wouldn’t be so quick to declare victory.

We’re still waiting for Mexico to pay for wall.

[scottish]

Here's the view from the rest of the world.   Or at least from China.  :-)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jgOxRM8GKJ0

The video is pretty funny.   More importantly it shows that China is learning how to use mass communications.   Instead of angry denunciations, they have escalated to humorous videos to make their point.

[caffeine]

Pretty damning if true:

Coronavirus NSW: Dossier lays out case against China bat virus program
https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/coronavirus/bombshell-dossier-lays-out-case-against-chinese-bat-virus-program/news-story/55add857058731c9c71c0e96ad17da60

China lied about origin of coronavirus, leaked intelligence report says
https://nypost.com/2020/05/02/intelligence-report-says-china-lied-about-origin-of-coronavirus/

[LennStar]

Are those the same intelligence sources as about Iraqs Weapon of Mass Destruction?

I don't say it does not make sense. But I don't trust anything that comes out from intelligence service, because of too much lies.

[maizefolk]

Pretty damning if true:

Coronavirus NSW: Dossier lays out case against China bat virus program
https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/coronavirus/bombshell-dossier-lays-out-case-against-chinese-bat-virus-program/news-story/55add857058731c9c71c0e96ad17da60

From this link it sounds like both Australia and the US agree the virus didn't come from a research lab.

The Australian government’s position is that the virus most likely originated in the Wuhan wet market but that there is a remote possibility — a 5 per cent chance — it accidentally leaked from a laboratory.

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence [USA] acting director Richard Grenell said the virus was not created in a laboratory.

“The Intelligence Community also concurs with the wide scientific consensus that the COVID-19 virus was not man-made or genetically modified.”

[caffeine]

From this link it sounds like both Australia and the US agree the virus didn't come from a research lab.

As I interpreted the article, Australia's official position isn't necessarily in agreement with the leaked dossier conclusions (leaked hours ago).

Also, Richard Grenell's statement is a distinction between deliberate man-made virus leak versus an accidental viral leak.

However, I'm suspicious of the NYPost, and unfamiliar with the Daily Telegraph.

[maizefolk]

From reading elsewhere the leaked dossier itself doesn't appear to have any statements in favor of the virus being created in a lab but just about China trying to avoid acknowledging the virus existed and then downplaying its severity for weeks after it finally became public.

Which obviously isn't what we would have liked them to do when a new virus was spreading through the population, but is quite different from a virus escaping from a research lab.

I know Trump has now been saying that he think's China created the virus in a lab, but so far, despite investigating it on orders from him, it sounds like US intelligence agencies haven't been able to find evidence to support his view.

[former player]

As far as I can gather from the Daily Telegraph (caffeine: the DT is a respected UK broadsheet with a conservative bias) -

1. There is scientific consensus that the COVID-19 virus was not manufactured or genetically modified.

2. It is similar to known horseshoe bat viruses but its origins have not been determined.

3. It is unknown whether the virus came from the wild via a Wuhan wetmarket or (thought to be very much less likely) from the wild via a laboratory in the Wuhan Institute of Virology which is known to collect and study horseshoe bat viruses.

4.  Chinese authorities are acting suspiciously in that they are refusing to provide live samples of the virus from early infections, have destroyed evidence from the laboratory, have silenced and disappeared those who try to speak out and are unable to provide a convincing explanation of the whereabouts of a lab worker/researcher who is rumoured to be Patient Zero.

5. The Wuhan Institute of Virology is carrying out highly dangerous research into coronaviruses, including genetically modifying them in ways that make them highly contagious and untreatable in humans, and is doing so without the necessary safety precautions.

Thanks, China.

[scottish]

Given the authoritarian nature of Chinese society, they actually did reasonably well in disclosing information about the virus.    I also think that the disclosure was not nearly as good as it could have been.

Conspiracy theories are always going to be a hard sell.  "Never attribute to malice that which can be explained by incompetence."

On our end, we took our time recognizing the severity of the situation.   As late as mid-March we were telling people to get out and enjoy spring break.   Nothing to worry about.   I remember looking at clips from Wuhan in February wondering "what the fsck is going on over there?"    In hindsight it should have been obvious.

I think the notion of asking for economic reparations from China is a waste of time.    It would be pretty hard for the USA to sue China for not doing enough to contain the virus when the US is the global epicenter because...     the US government didn't do much to control the virus.

[GuitarStv]

Unless it was proven that the Chinese engineered this virus, I don't see why reparations would even be desirable.  Diseases exist.  They're out there, all over the world.  They don't know borders or nationality, and they can infect anyone.

The point of reparations in WWI was to punish the losers of the war for belligerent actions.  (It totally didn't work at all, but that's another story).  What belligerent actions are we supposed to be punishing China for?  And before you bitch about China sticking their head in the sand . . . look at the US response and then think hard about whether or not you want the rest of the world to be judging you.

The idea that the US is anywhere near as liable as China for COVID19 is intellectually vapid false equivalence.

Trump tried to downplay it, ostensibly because he wanted the economy to keep moving up and to the right so he could cruise into a second term. I concede he showed again that he will put his own interests before the United States' interests.

He regularly contradicts the medical experts, but, and this is important, he doesn't silence them, force them to sign letters of apology swearing they will not do it again, and threaten to prosecute them.

China's default stance of hostility towards free speech is the crime that rippled throughout the world and deserves some type of justice. I don't believe in blaming China for allowing Covid19 to originate or blaming China for insufficient efforts to contain Covid19 - but they should be discouraged from maintaining their institutional stance which has the knee jerk reaction to gaslight and punish credible whistleblowers as opposed to investigating their claims and acting responsibly.

Perhaps formal reparations would be a bad idea, but I think this episode is VERY illustrative of the unintended consequences of globalism when it involves nations who do not share your principles, and perhaps it will cause nations to adopt a more cautious approach to relations with China (Unless China is proactive about communicating their remorse and reforms in the wake of this, which it seems to be starting and realizing is in its best interest).

In recent news, Donald Trump's White House has silenced Fauci by banning him from testifying in the Democratic held house:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/01/politics/anthony-fauci-white-house-blocks-house-testimony/index.html

[ender]

In recent news, Donald Trump's White House has silenced Fauci by banning him from testifying in the Democratic held house:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/01/politics/anthony-fauci-white-house-blocks-house-testimony/index.html

That's certainly one interpretation of what happened.

[LennStar]

In recent news, Donald Trump's White House has silenced Fauci by banning him from testifying in the Democratic held house:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/01/politics/anthony-fauci-white-house-blocks-house-testimony/index.html

That's certainly one interpretation of what happened.

What is a different interpretation of this speakers quote?
You mean the WH excuse that he can't even do a video conference because he might get sick?

[nereo]

In recent news, Donald Trump's White House has silenced Fauci by banning him from testifying in the Democratic held house:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/01/politics/anthony-fauci-white-house-blocks-house-testimony/index.html

That's certainly one interpretation of what happened.

What is a different interpretation of this speakers quote?
You mean the WH excuse that he can't even do a video conference because he might get sick?

That the WH is trying to control its messaging.

One can view this negatively (“they are trying to silence the scientists!”) or more as a pragmatic/political decision (i.e. “the initial response was marred by conflicting messages coming from multiple people - now they are trying to rectify that”).

FWIW I take the more cynical view.  However.... almost every large corporation and government agency on the planet tries to control the flow of information precisely so they don’t wind up undercutting their own messaging.  This can be done both for good and for nefarious purposes.

[GuitarStv]

So, was China managing the message too then?

[nereo]

So, was China managing the message too then?

Seems pretty clear thats what they were trying to do.

Again - done one way it can be benificial.  Done another it can be suppressing the truth.  I’m guessing we are both of the same opinion which the WH is doing here.

[Gremlin]

So, was China managing the message too then?

Seems pretty clear thats what they were trying to do.

Again - done one way it can be benificial.  Done another it can be suppressing the truth.  I’m guessing we are both of the same opinion which the WH is doing here.

On many occasions "suppressing the truth" = "beneficial".  At least to those in key leadership roles.

[GuitarStv]

So, was China managing the message too then?

Seems pretty clear thats what they were trying to do.

Again - done one way it can be benificial.  Done another it can be suppressing the truth.  I’m guessing we are both of the same opinion which the WH is doing here.

OK.  But I was responding to a post telling me that it was intellectually vapid to compare the US's mishandling of the situation to China's . . . because the US doesn't suppress the truth  manage the message like China did.  It really seems like the mismanagement argument can be leveled pretty equally between both countries at this point.  I mean, at least China's leaders didn't tell the world to use bleach in their bodies, or recommend unproven drugs . . .

[scottish]

So, was China managing the message too then?

Seems pretty clear thats what they were trying to do.

Again - done one way it can be benificial.  Done another it can be suppressing the truth.  I’m guessing we are both of the same opinion which the WH is doing here.

OK.  But I was responding to a post telling me that it was intellectually vapid to compare the US's mishandling of the situation to China's . . . because the US doesn't suppress the truth  manage the message like China did.  It really seems like the mismanagement argument can be leveled pretty equally between both countries at this point.  I mean, at least China's leaders didn't tell the world to use bleach in their bodies, or recommend unproven drugs . . .

That was only one American leader, not both of them.    And the other one even admitted he made a mistake when he didn't wear a mask inside America's premier medical institute.

[marty998]

As far as I can gather from the Daily Telegraph (caffeine: the DT is a respected UK broadsheet with a conservative bias) -

1. There is scientific consensus that the COVID-19 virus was not manufactured or genetically modified.

2. It is similar to known horseshoe bat viruses but its origins have not been determined.

3. It is unknown whether the virus came from the wild via a Wuhan wetmarket or (thought to be very much less likely) from the wild via a laboratory in the Wuhan Institute of Virology which is known to collect and study horseshoe bat viruses.

4.  Chinese authorities are acting suspiciously in that they are refusing to provide live samples of the virus from early infections, have destroyed evidence from the laboratory, have silenced and disappeared those who try to speak out and are unable to provide a convincing explanation of the whereabouts of a lab worker/researcher who is rumoured to be Patient Zero.

5. The Wuhan Institute of Virology is carrying out highly dangerous research into coronaviruses, including genetically modifying them in ways that make them highly contagious and untreatable in humans, and is doing so without the necessary safety precautions.

Thanks, China.

The link is to the Australian Daily Telegraph. The paper will usually scream an outrageous headline, and write tons of nonsense to scare everyone, and then at the bottom of the article when everyone is suitably riled up write something small and factual like "the Australian Government's position and the scientific community generally think all of the above is garbage", which not many people will care to notice.

The Australian DT does have a conservative bias and is owned by the News Corp / Murdoch Press.

This article can be safely filed on the shelf under the heading of "this is an unhelpful contribution to scientific discourse".

[former player]

As far as I can gather from the Daily Telegraph (caffeine: the DT is a respected UK broadsheet with a conservative bias) -

1. There is scientific consensus that the COVID-19 virus was not manufactured or genetically modified.

2. It is similar to known horseshoe bat viruses but its origins have not been determined.

3. It is unknown whether the virus came from the wild via a Wuhan wetmarket or (thought to be very much less likely) from the wild via a laboratory in the Wuhan Institute of Virology which is known to collect and study horseshoe bat viruses.

4.  Chinese authorities are acting suspiciously in that they are refusing to provide live samples of the virus from early infections, have destroyed evidence from the laboratory, have silenced and disappeared those who try to speak out and are unable to provide a convincing explanation of the whereabouts of a lab worker/researcher who is rumoured to be Patient Zero.

5. The Wuhan Institute of Virology is carrying out highly dangerous research into coronaviruses, including genetically modifying them in ways that make them highly contagious and untreatable in humans, and is doing so without the necessary safety precautions.

Thanks, China.

The link is to the Australian Daily Telegraph. The paper will usually scream an outrageous headline, and write tons of nonsense to scare everyone, and then at the bottom of the article when everyone is suitably riled up write something small and factual like "the Australian Government's position and the scientific community generally think all of the above is garbage", which not many people will care to notice.

The Australian DT does have a conservative bias and is owned by the News Corp / Murdoch Press.

This article can be safely filed on the shelf under the heading of "this is an unhelpful contribution to scientific discourse".

My mistake about the identity of the newspaper.

Is there anything wrong with what I got from it?

[AnnaGrowsAMustache]

Don't be so ridiculous. No one has control over where a virus starts or how impactful it will be. They've actually started on all continents in the past. Besides which, what you'll actually do with a policy like demanding reparation is make any country having an outbreak in the future very unlikely to tell anyone about it!