Author Topic: long term effects of coronavirus  (Read 3296 times)

kenmoremmm

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long term effects of coronavirus
« on: May 05, 2020, 12:17:27 PM »
i would like to see all your thoughts on the long term effects of the coronavirus. here are some of mine:

1. the US will bring some manufacturing back home (a new mini boom?)
2. china will ultimately pay the price (either via political pressure and loss of partnerships, or when CV circles back to the country and hits them last)
3. US stock market will result in annualized returns of less than 4% as measured between late 90s and 2025
4. states/countries that have "opened up" earliest will benefit the most, albeit they will likely have the highest death rate per capita

maizefolk

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Re: long term effects of coronavirus
« Reply #1 on: May 05, 2020, 12:33:27 PM »
3. US stock market will result in annualized returns of less than 4% as measured between late 90s and 2025

4% before or after adjusting for inflation? Where you put your marker for "the late 90s" also makes a big difference in how grim this prediction sounds.

The S&P 500 was about 930 at the start of 1998. 4% per year in capital gains for 27 years would put the stock market at about 2,680 in 2025, but that doesn't count dividends. If you figure a constant 2% or so reinvested dividend yield over those 27 years, the market would need to be below 1,590 in 2025 for for the total annualized return to be below 4%.

MasterStache

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Re: long term effects of coronavirus
« Reply #2 on: May 05, 2020, 12:42:26 PM »
i would like to see all your thoughts on the long term effects of the coronavirus. here are some of mine:
1. the US will bring some manufacturing back home (a new mini boom?)

Doubt it. The big shift in manufacturing involved automation. Sure some jobs were lost overseas. I see automation taking on an even bigger role. It's easier to keep a factory open during times like this with less folks working. I've actually wondered how many of the plants I worked in as an engineer installing automation equipment are faring. Cheap overseas labor isn't disappearing anytime soon as well. The US demand for cheap products isn't either.

kenmoremmm

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Re: long term effects of coronavirus
« Reply #3 on: May 05, 2020, 01:15:45 PM »
3. US stock market will result in annualized returns of less than 4% as measured between late 90s and 2025

4% before or after adjusting for inflation? Where you put your marker for "the late 90s" also makes a big difference in how grim this prediction sounds.

The S&P 500 was about 930 at the start of 1998. 4% per year in capital gains for 27 years would put the stock market at about 2,680 in 2025, but that doesn't count dividends. If you figure a constant 2% or so reinvested dividend yield over those 27 years, the market would need to be below 1,590 in 2025 for for the total annualized return to be below 4%.

annualized returns meaning total return. i know, grim.

my understanding is the number of companies slashing dividends entirely right now is large.

Gremlin

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Re: long term effects of coronavirus
« Reply #4 on: May 05, 2020, 04:05:48 PM »
Not where this thread was going, but the first thing that sprang to my mind was permanent or long term lung damage for a sizeable percentage of the population...

maizefolk

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Re: long term effects of coronavirus
« Reply #5 on: May 05, 2020, 05:53:24 PM »
1) I think we'll see the adoption of a mask wearing culture in the USA and Europe more similar to what has been present places like Japan and Taiwan for most of the past century.

2) Not during the crisis itself, but coming out the other side I predict we'll see some significant inflation -- as last by the standards of the last couple of decades -- as optimism increases the velocity of money again, but employment rates remain too high for the fed to reverse course and sell off the assets it has been buying in recent weeks to soak up the extra cash it has created.

3) More remote work, and a modest shift in the distribution of highly paid knowledge workers away from big cities.

4) More automation everywhere. In domestic factories, amazon fulfillment warehouses, restaurants when they reopen, everywhere. A lot of the jobs that disappeared in the last month never end up coming back.

4B) Bigger push for something like a UBI.

4C) More social unrest. More militia movements. More extremism.

5) An increase in the earnings gap between those with children and those without.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: long term effects of coronavirus
« Reply #6 on: May 05, 2020, 06:33:27 PM »
Taxes unfortunately will go up on high earners to pay for all the stimulus and largesse. Income inequality will go down.

js82

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Re: long term effects of coronavirus
« Reply #7 on: May 05, 2020, 06:39:12 PM »
1) I think we'll see the adoption of a mask wearing culture in the USA and Europe more similar to what has been present places like Japan and Taiwan for most of the past century.

I'm not sure the mask wearing will stick, but I think we'll see changes to the more toxic aspects of workaholic culture that encourage people to come in to work while sick(thereby putting coworkers at risk for infection).  It's dumb even for things less severe than the current pandemic, and I think it'll change - at least a bit.  Companies will take stronger stances on "stay home if you're sick" and adjust policies to encourage this behavior - even from a purely selfish perspective, infecting coworkers is bad for the bottom line.

Quote
3) More remote work, and a modest shift in the distribution of highly paid knowledge workers away from big cities.

I think we'll see this, but some companies have a lot of work to do on this front.  I have friends and family who work in software, and many of these companies have developed cultures that enable effective remote work.  I work in (non-software)engineering and do a lot of heavy data work that should be doable remotely, but our work culture(mostly in the realm of communication) has a ways to go before remote work is as effective as it should be.  Many sectors/companies *can* leverage more remote work, but will have to adapt their culture/approach to communication before it's as effective as it should be.


Quote
4C) More social unrest. More militia movements. More extremism.

I agree, although I see this less as a product of the pandemic, and more a continuation of our recent political trajectory.


In addition to the above, I also you'll think a continuation/escalation of the backlash against globalization.  Though in practice I think it'll produce a lot more rhetoric as opposed to impactful policy changes.  I don't think globalism can truly be rolled back at this point - though I do think we'll see some targeted localization of very specific capabilities (think PPE manufacturing).  I also think/hope that we'll be thoughtful enough about developing the capability for flex capacity for critical goods(again, PPE) to enable quick capacity in times of crisis.

maizefolk

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Re: long term effects of coronavirus
« Reply #8 on: May 05, 2020, 06:49:21 PM »
3) More remote work, and a modest shift in the distribution of highly paid knowledge workers away from big cities.

I think we'll see this, but some companies have a lot of work to do on this front.  I have friends and family who work in software, and many of these companies have developed cultures that enable effective remote work.  I work in (non-software)engineering and do a lot of heavy data work that should be doable remotely, but our work culture(mostly in the realm of communication) has a ways to go before remote work is as effective as it should be.  Many sectors/companies *can* leverage more remote work, but will have to adapt their culture/approach to communication before it's as effective as it should be.

Completely agreed. There's a significant activation energy to adapting, even when people are doing work that should really be easily accomplishable remotely. Part of that's physical infrastructure, part learning new skills, and part learning new culture.

Out of curiosity have you seen any improvement in your employer's culture just in the however many weeks of your local shutdown? Part of my thinking here is that a month+ of near universal work from home is going to force a lot of companies to get over the activation energy of learning new approaches and systems to remote work (whether that's getting used to slack and zoom, setting up good SSH/VPN infrastructure and shared data storage, or just figuring out how to batch communication when you cannot walk down the hallway and into someone else's office to interrupt them 3-4 times a day).

Okay, that last one a mostly a personal sore spot and one I've been really pleased to see clear up in the weeks since my group was sent off to work from home.

Quote
4C) More social unrest. More militia movements. More extremism.

I agree, although I see this less as a product of the pandemic, and more a continuation of our recent political trajectory.
[/quote]

I don't think we're going to end up somewhere we wouldn't have been going anyway, but, like the point about remote work or automation for that matter, my guess is that the coronavirus is going to accelerate things so where we end up where we were going anyway faster than we would have without the virus.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: long term effects of coronavirus
« Reply #9 on: May 05, 2020, 07:46:22 PM »
I prefer the positive:

1.  Long term decrease in number of miles driven as people commute less.

2.  No more shaking hands.

3.  People stay home when they're sick.

4.  Lots of people continue to home school.  Lots of others decide it really isn't for them.

5.  Diets lower in cholesterol as people get used to less meat or can't afford it.

6.  Frugality and budgeting become very cool. 

7.  Virginia's liquor laws become less idiotic. Vehicle inspections go away as well. 

8. Gardening becomes very cool.

9.  People who haven't cooked much before decide they're not too bad at it and cook more.

10.  People actually take their blood pressure meds. Diabetes and high blood pressure become very uncool. 
   


MasterStache

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Re: long term effects of coronavirus
« Reply #10 on: May 06, 2020, 06:19:31 AM »
I prefer the positive:

1.  Long term decrease in number of miles driven as people commute less.

2.  No more shaking hands.

3.  People stay home when they're sick.

4.  Lots of people continue to home school.  Lots of others decide it really isn't for them.

5.  Diets lower in cholesterol as people get used to less meat or can't afford it.

6.  Frugality and budgeting become very cool. 

7.  Virginia's liquor laws become less idiotic. Vehicle inspections go away as well. 

8. Gardening becomes very cool.

9.  People who haven't cooked much before decide they're not too bad at it and cook more.

10.  People actually take their blood pressure meds. Diabetes and high blood pressure become very uncool. 
 
I think home schooling being positive depends. It requires a time commitment from at least 1 parent, often times both. With the norm being both parents working, it doesn't work too well. It also relies on the parent to be continually engaged and knowledgeable themselves. Plus kids lose the social and team building aspect, which is an important part of their learning.

I really do hope people learn to drive less. I've never seen so many folks walking and riding bikes around my city. It's wonderful!
« Last Edit: May 06, 2020, 07:34:19 AM by MasterStache »

deborah

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Re: long term effects of coronavirus
« Reply #11 on: May 08, 2020, 04:56:38 AM »
Most of the g7 are not dealing with the pandemic well. As a result, there could easily be a change in the world order.

Gremlin

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Re: long term effects of coronavirus
« Reply #12 on: May 08, 2020, 09:20:38 PM »
Most of the g7 are not dealing with the pandemic well. As a result, there could easily be a change in the world order.

THIS!

YttriumNitrate

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Re: long term effects of coronavirus
« Reply #13 on: May 08, 2020, 09:35:57 PM »
I'm expecting the tiny house trend to be over, and new construction to get even larger. Being stuck in their houses for a few months will make people wish they had more space.

FIRE Artist

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Re: long term effects of coronavirus
« Reply #14 on: May 08, 2020, 09:40:54 PM »
I think that people who fell down the food and supply hoarding rabbit hole are going to find it very difficult to return to stocking normal levels of items in their homes.  Comparatively, the west is still the land of abundance even given temporary shortages, but once people get a taste of scarcity it is hard to shake.  I personally experienced this when I lived in Sumatra, constant shortages of what we would consider staples in the west, and an inability to walk into a store and purchase shoes, clothing (ugh, couldn’t get a new bra to save my life) that fit me without getting on a plane. 

It took a better part of a decade to unwind from that need to stockpile things and purchase absolutely everything in bulk.  I have been extremely careful to not fall into that trap again due to the pandemic.  I still occasionally have to check myself when I think I should buy things in multiples. 

FIRE Artist

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Re: long term effects of coronavirus
« Reply #15 on: May 08, 2020, 09:41:43 PM »
I'm expecting the tiny house trend to be over, and new construction to get even larger. Being stuck in their houses for a few months will make people wish they had more space.

Totally agree with this.

horsepoor

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Re: long term effects of coronavirus
« Reply #16 on: May 09, 2020, 12:02:06 AM »
I'm expecting the tiny house trend to be over, and new construction to get even larger. Being stuck in their houses for a few months will make people wish they had more space.

Totally agree with this.

Ha, yeah.  Our house is about 50% larger than what we set out to buy.  I'm super grateful for it now that my husband and I are both working from home.

Long-term, I see telework increasing for me, as well as for others.  I think my husband will prefer to go back to the office when he feels comfortable with the health risks.

Mid-term, I think thrice before going to a store or making a purchase.  There may be less consumption, even by those who haven't lost income, due to the disinclination to go out and shop.  I don't see that changing within the year.

I hope it will push us towards looking harder at our food system, and the risks associated with mega-agriculture and large food processing plants.

scottish

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Re: long term effects of coronavirus
« Reply #17 on: May 09, 2020, 07:57:46 AM »
3) More remote work, and a modest shift in the distribution of highly paid knowledge workers away from big cities.

I think we'll see this, but some companies have a lot of work to do on this front.  I have friends and family who work in software, and many of these companies have developed cultures that enable effective remote work.  I work in (non-software)engineering and do a lot of heavy data work that should be doable remotely, but our work culture(mostly in the realm of communication) has a ways to go before remote work is as effective as it should be.  Many sectors/companies *can* leverage more remote work, but will have to adapt their culture/approach to communication before it's as effective as it should be.

Completely agreed. There's a significant activation energy to adapting, even when people are doing work that should really be easily accomplishable remotely. Part of that's physical infrastructure, part learning new skills, and part learning new culture.

Out of curiosity have you seen any improvement in your employer's culture just in the however many weeks of your local shutdown? Part of my thinking here is that a month+ of near universal work from home is going to force a lot of companies to get over the activation energy of learning new approaches and systems to remote work (whether that's getting used to slack and zoom, setting up good SSH/VPN infrastructure and shared data storage, or just figuring out how to batch communication when you cannot walk down the hallway and into someone else's office to interrupt them 3-4 times a day).

Okay, that last one a mostly a personal sore spot and one I've been really pleased to see clear up in the weeks since my group was sent off to work from home.

Quote
4C) More social unrest. More militia movements. More extremism.

I agree, although I see this less as a product of the pandemic, and more a continuation of our recent political trajectory.


My current employer has a no sick leave policy.    (This is pretty unusual in Canada.   They didn't make me aware of the policy before I signed on.   In return I "work" from home whenever I'm sick.)

They are now considering implementing a sick leave policy so that people won't come in to work when they're sick.

ender

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Re: long term effects of coronavirus
« Reply #18 on: May 09, 2020, 08:35:10 AM »
I'm expecting the tiny house trend to be over, and new construction to get even larger. Being stuck in their houses for a few months will make people wish they had more space.

Totally agree with this.

Ha, yeah.  Our house is about 50% larger than what we set out to buy.  I'm super grateful for it now that my husband and I are both working from home.

Long-term, I see telework increasing for me, as well as for others.  I think my husband will prefer to go back to the office when he feels comfortable with the health risks.

Mid-term, I think thrice before going to a store or making a purchase.  There may be less consumption, even by those who haven't lost income, due to the disinclination to go out and shop.  I don't see that changing within the year.

I hope it will push us towards looking harder at our food system, and the risks associated with mega-agriculture and large food processing plants.

+1

GuitarStv

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Re: long term effects of coronavirus
« Reply #19 on: May 09, 2020, 02:01:17 PM »
Judging by many of the comments about stress eating and lack of exercise that I've read during this pandemic, I wonder if people in the US and Canada will get even fatter on average than they currently are.

YttriumNitrate

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Re: long term effects of coronavirus
« Reply #20 on: May 10, 2020, 06:54:40 AM »
Judging by many of the comments about stress eating and lack of exercise that I've read during this pandemic, I wonder if people in the US and Canada will get even fatter on average than they currently are.

That one's going to be interesting. The gyms are closed, and people seem to be exercising less, but the restaurant business is also way down which might counteract some or all of the effects.

Rural

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Re: long term effects of coronavirus
« Reply #21 on: May 10, 2020, 01:27:58 PM »
I'm actually losing weight (or size at any rate - i don't have a scale). I'm eating less because of worry about the shortages that are still affecting this area - no snacks for example - and I'm probably eating better.

LaineyAZ

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Re: long term effects of coronavirus
« Reply #22 on: May 10, 2020, 06:32:54 PM »
Read an interesting article this past weekend on employers allowing employees to continue working remotely.

There were 2 separate surveys done - the survey of employers (done by Mercer, an HR consulting company) said "only 8% of these businesses said they plan to allow most employees to continue to work virtually as much as they want."

In contrast, a survey of employees (done by staffing firm Robert Half) said 79% of the professional workers who responded said "they'd like to work remotely more often than they had before the coronavirus outbreak, with parents with kids at home especially receptive to the idea."

I wish they had asked another question which would allow a more middle-ground response, e.g., if an employer would agree to at least 1-3 days/week working from home vs. "as much as they want" - maybe then the employers would have been more receptive to the idea. 
Either way, it looks like employers have not been swayed much since the mandatory WFH as far as thinking this is okay and they'd want it to continue.

js82

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Re: long term effects of coronavirus
« Reply #23 on: May 10, 2020, 07:02:52 PM »
Read an interesting article this past weekend on employers allowing employees to continue working remotely.

There were 2 separate surveys done - the survey of employers (done by Mercer, an HR consulting company) said "only 8% of these businesses said they plan to allow most employees to continue to work virtually as much as they want."

In contrast, a survey of employees (done by staffing firm Robert Half) said 79% of the professional workers who responded said "they'd like to work remotely more often than they had before the coronavirus outbreak, with parents with kids at home especially receptive to the idea."

I wish they had asked another question which would allow a more middle-ground response, e.g., if an employer would agree to at least 1-3 days/week working from home vs. "as much as they want" - maybe then the employers would have been more receptive to the idea. 
Either way, it looks like employers have not been swayed much since the mandatory WFH as far as thinking this is okay and they'd want it to continue.

I think the biggest obstacle to doing more WFH is that many employers are really bad at it(or more specifically, their culture around communication is WFH-unfriendly).

I'm on a task force asked to look at exactly that - while the current directive is for anyone who doesn't physically need to be on-site to work from home, we're not nearly as effective at it as it should be - a lot of it has to do with how we communicate(or *don't* communicate) and schedule things, and we don't consider how to incorporate remote work into that.  We definitely have more people coming in to work than truly need to, because we're not communicating as effectively as we need to be to enable more people to work from home.  Historically we relied extensively on informal face-to-face interactions in the office as an important means of communication - and that does NOT play well in an environment where everyone is being encouraged to work from home as much as possible.

On the other hand, I know people in other industries(predominantly software) whose companies are very good at remote work.  Communication is the biggest difference.  In some cases they've been doing it for a long time, which means they've had time to build it into their culture.
« Last Edit: May 10, 2020, 07:04:50 PM by js82 »

Sibley

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Re: long term effects of coronavirus
« Reply #24 on: May 10, 2020, 07:10:23 PM »
Read an interesting article this past weekend on employers allowing employees to continue working remotely.

There were 2 separate surveys done - the survey of employers (done by Mercer, an HR consulting company) said "only 8% of these businesses said they plan to allow most employees to continue to work virtually as much as they want."

In contrast, a survey of employees (done by staffing firm Robert Half) said 79% of the professional workers who responded said "they'd like to work remotely more often than they had before the coronavirus outbreak, with parents with kids at home especially receptive to the idea."

I wish they had asked another question which would allow a more middle-ground response, e.g., if an employer would agree to at least 1-3 days/week working from home vs. "as much as they want" - maybe then the employers would have been more receptive to the idea. 
Either way, it looks like employers have not been swayed much since the mandatory WFH as far as thinking this is okay and they'd want it to continue.

Friends at HCSC (one of the big companies behind Blue Cross) and Allstate have all indicated that remote work was likely to be expanded, permanently. Nationwide Insurance has said it publicly.

With Allstate and Nationwide doing it, that's going to put pressure on the rest of P&C insurance companies to shift to more remote work. If nothing else, the overhead of many/big offices will start to weigh them down at some point, and Wall Street is going to be very critical if certain ratios aren't in line/better than the competitors. At least in Chicago, the employees don't necessarily look very kindly at butt-in-seat requirements that are unnecessary. This period of remote work is only going to strengthen that, and companies that already have a poor reputation amongst job seekers will find it even harder to attract quality talent without remote options. It's going to be messy though, because company cultures will also have to adjust to be successful with widespread remote work. It's not going to happen overnight.

ChpBstrd

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Re: long term effects of coronavirus
« Reply #25 on: May 10, 2020, 10:13:09 PM »
My company is antsy to get back to the office, but I'm struggling to see what problem would be solved by this solution. I suspect the older managers are uncomfortable managing at a distance.

I predict the following:

1) If lower-density areas are more capable of opening than dense cities, or become seen as safer, you'll eventually see economic refugees leaving dense cities looking for work in the lower-density places.

2) If WFH becomes the norm for many professions, you'll see people leaving dense, expensive cities for small towns where they can live on a third as much. This could change the electoral map by flipping more counties blue, but this will take years to occur.

3) Home schooling will get a lot more popular. Traditional gender roles may return. Academic performance, and thus future economic potential, could fall significantly. More extremists who have never considered a viewpoint contrary to their parents' viewpoint could be produced.

4) Voting rates in dense cities will be much lower this election than they were in the past because people in dense cities are sincerely worried about C-19. Meanwhile, people in rural areas are utterly unconcerned about the virus so far, and will turn out to vote.

5) People will have one of two reactions when the pandemic is over. They will either appreciate and pursue in-person interactions more than ever or they will completely retreat into a life lived on the internet, wracked by anxiety and hypochondria. I think the second outcome is more consistent with reactions to solitary confinement in prisons.

HPstache

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Re: long term effects of coronavirus
« Reply #26 on: May 10, 2020, 10:47:12 PM »
I will add to a lot of these great lists that I think that University/College tuition prices will have hit their peak in 2019 due to COVID-19 changing a lot of opinions on traditional higher education.

ender

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Re: long term effects of coronavirus
« Reply #27 on: May 11, 2020, 06:50:23 AM »
I think the biggest obstacle to doing more WFH is that many employers are really bad at it(or more specifically, their culture around communication is WFH-unfriendly).

I'm on a task force asked to look at exactly that - while the current directive is for anyone who doesn't physically need to be on-site to work from home, we're not nearly as effective at it as it should be - a lot of it has to do with how we communicate(or *don't* communicate) and schedule things, and we don't consider how to incorporate remote work into that.  We definitely have more people coming in to work than truly need to, because we're not communicating as effectively as we need to be to enable more people to work from home.  Historically we relied extensively on informal face-to-face interactions in the office as an important means of communication - and that does NOT play well in an environment where everyone is being encouraged to work from home as much as possible.

On the other hand, I know people in other industries(predominantly software) whose companies are very good at remote work.  Communication is the biggest difference.  In some cases they've been doing it for a long time, which means they've had time to build it into their culture.

Not to mention that for anyone with kids and/or vulnerable family/friends, this covid situation has been about as far from normal WFH as could ever be the case.

I am kind of expecting a lot of companies to go "See, remote doesn't work!" without realizing that:

  • Their employees were thrown into remote work with minimal planning
  • Many of them have kids at home without daycare/school and often two working parents
  • Their company already sucked at communication but lived on organic but inefficient hallway conversations

and then blame remote work as the problem.

Leisured

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Re: long term effects of coronavirus
« Reply #28 on: May 11, 2020, 07:46:43 AM »
Working from home was common in Sci Fi decades ago. C19 may be the push to get mainstream society to make it acceptable.

I expect a big effort to find o greeting other than shaking paws.

Home schooling is only an option for the middle class and above. Lower down the social scale, it is important to have proper schooling.

Globalism will not disappear, but will fade. I am old enough to remember the times when countries had manufacturing purely for military reasons, understandable after two world wars. We now know that each country needs to make essential medical equipment, and no doubt other products.

China has shown that there is a political aspect to globalism, which economists ion the eighties had not recognised. China became the factory of the world, and  - eventually - turned what was supposed to be a purely business proposition into power politics. China is fouling its own nest, and the rest of the world, will repatriate their important industries, and diversify purchases of, say refrigrigetors, to India or Brazil. I live in Australia, dependent on China for purchases of iron ore and coal, so that will wind down in the future.

I reply to deborah, the world order will not change much, and in China disfavour. China caused C19, and relies on its customers for its trading empire.

 

maizefolk

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Re: long term effects of coronavirus
« Reply #29 on: May 11, 2020, 07:51:01 AM »
I will add to a lot of these great lists that I think that University/College tuition prices will have hit their peak in 2019 due to COVID-19 changing a lot of opinions on traditional higher education.

I think it will depend on how this is calculated.

My prediction is that we'll see total "seats" at in person college/universities peak* as schools start going out of business or having to significantly curtail operations. But I don't think tuition will decline significantly if at all at the Ivies and any other traditional in-person schools that make it out the other side of this.

*In fairness 2010 is already the current peak for total college enrollment. Also domestic student enrollment was already going to start dropping dramatically in 2025 or so because US birth rates declined substantially starting in 2008 and never recovered. The effects of that change are already making themselves felt through US elementary and middle schools.

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Re: long term effects of coronavirus
« Reply #30 on: May 11, 2020, 08:42:57 AM »

Not to mention that for anyone with kids and/or vulnerable family/friends, this covid situation has been about as far from normal WFH as could ever be the case.

I am kind of expecting a lot of companies to go "See, remote doesn't work!" without realizing that:

  • Their employees were thrown into remote work with minimal planning
  • Many of them have kids at home without daycare/school and often two working parents
  • Their company already sucked at communication but lived on organic but inefficient hallway conversations

and then blame remote work as the problem.


This is a great topic..

I agree with everything ender wrote above.  I think many, many medium to small businesses will come to that conclusion (mostly wrongly).

By the River

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Re: long term effects of coronavirus
« Reply #31 on: May 11, 2020, 12:28:07 PM »
Not to mention that for anyone with kids and/or vulnerable family/friends, this covid situation has been about as far from normal WFH as could ever be the case.

I am kind of expecting a lot of companies to go "See, remote doesn't work!" without realizing that:

  • Their employees were thrown into remote work with minimal planning
  • Many of them have kids at home without daycare/school and often two working parents
  • Their company already sucked at communication but lived on organic but inefficient hallway conversations

and then blame remote work as the problem.

Conference call today with my medium size company.  Upper management just feels like they and everyone else are not working 40 hours productively at home so we are starting back 40 hours/week at the office on June 1.
 Sorry, I was not working all 40 hours at home but then again, I'm not working all 40 hours in the office either between conversations with coworkers, working on my budget and retirement spreadsheets, etc.   BUT I do get my job done at either home or the office. 

ChpBstrd

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Re: long term effects of coronavirus
« Reply #32 on: May 11, 2020, 12:43:27 PM »
Not to mention that for anyone with kids and/or vulnerable family/friends, this covid situation has been about as far from normal WFH as could ever be the case.

I am kind of expecting a lot of companies to go "See, remote doesn't work!" without realizing that:

  • Their employees were thrown into remote work with minimal planning
  • Many of them have kids at home without daycare/school and often two working parents
  • Their company already sucked at communication but lived on organic but inefficient hallway conversations

and then blame remote work as the problem.

Conference call today with my medium size company.  Upper management just feels like they and everyone else are not working 40 hours productively at home so we are starting back 40 hours/week at the office on June 1.
 Sorry, I was not working all 40 hours at home but then again, I'm not working all 40 hours in the office either between conversations with coworkers, working on my budget and retirement spreadsheets, etc.   BUT I do get my job done at either home or the office.

If you are passive-aggressive, might I suggest increasing your time wasted in the office. Perhaps get an aquarium for your office and clean it on company time, or resolve to increase your water cooler chit chat 40%. Get some of those desk toys like the tower of monkeys magnet, or the chrome balls that swing and hit each other. Rearrange and redecorate constantly.

MilesTeg

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Re: long term effects of coronavirus
« Reply #33 on: May 11, 2020, 01:32:34 PM »
Not sure why anyone thinks there will be long term changes in social customs like shaking hands. Not even the 1918 flu pandemic, which was much worse than C19, stopped them.

Even though viruses were still not understood then like today, it was still understood that close social contact spread certain diseases.

Abe

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Re: long term effects of coronavirus
« Reply #34 on: May 11, 2020, 08:29:58 PM »
I think that for infectious diseases there will be increased willingness to develop an international vaccine, antiviral and antibiotic drugs program. These areas have suffered due to lack of profitability and high costs of research. The last big push in this field was after the AIDS epidemic started in the US, and for various reasons a government sponsored program is necessary to spur private sector research. Now it’s quite clear to everyone that a strong understanding of emerging infections is necessary and this will not be the last pandemic.

Another long term effect is I definitely won’t shake hands anymore. Didn’t think it was a good idea to do so in a hospital, and now it’s not weird.

Gin1984

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Re: long term effects of coronavirus
« Reply #35 on: May 11, 2020, 08:37:14 PM »
Not where this thread was going, but the first thing that sprang to my mind was permanent or long term lung damage for a sizeable percentage of the population...
Mine was unknown neurological damage.

desk_jockey

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Re: long term effects of coronavirus
« Reply #36 on: May 11, 2020, 08:47:05 PM »
If long-term means more than 7 years, then I think the individual’s behavior impact will be muted after an intermediate period.   Looking 6 years out of the financial crisis of 2008, I think very many people that had lost their homes and swore they would reform were back to eating out and restaurants frequently and buying cars they couldn’t afford.   Hopefully it will lead to mask-wearing being common during flu season and epidemics.

For the workplace, I expect remote working to be a lot more common.  In education, on-line learning will continue to the point that we get more wide-spread acceptance of alternatives to a traditional college degree and in-person certification programs.   Governments, who are always good at fighting the last war, will be better prepared for the next epidemic.