Author Topic: coronavirus  (Read 30532 times)

AnnaGrowsAMustache

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #50 on: February 01, 2020, 04:30:08 PM »
Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't this just a new version of the common cold? There are dozens or hundreds of viruses that cause the common cold, among them variations of coronavirus and rhinovirus. The mortality rate for this novel coronavirus is currently around 2-3% based on confirmed deaths (~250-300) and confirmed cases (~10,000), but it's likely that those confirmed cases are way undercounting anyone who just got a case of the sniffles and didn't get tested. So maybe the mortality rate is closer to 1% or 0.5% 

Influenza meanwhile kills tens of thousands every year.



Maybe I'm just very jaded about how the media will cling on to anything that sounds dangerous and pump the shit out of it to get clicks and eyeballs. Somehow I don't think this is like Spanish Flu that's going to end up killing tens of millions worldwide.

No. This is something more similar to SARs. Had SARs popped up in 1918, it also could have killed many millions of people. We're more at risk of pandemic because of our travel habits now, but we're also MUCH better at identifying and treating, and at communicating globally than we were in 1918. There are many, many corona viruses, and the new ones have the potential to be extremely dangerous. We just don't know quite how this thing works yet, and we just don't know the rates at which people will become infected or die. The media will hype things for sure. On the other hand, in just a few weeks this is in 19 countries and transmitted person to person. That's a worst case scenario for a pandemic starting. We'll probably be lucky - low mortality rate. That's no reason to be complacent.

Don't forget the common cold is a killer for anyone newly exposed to it and without some immunity passed on from their parents. Ask any colonised country.
« Last Edit: February 01, 2020, 09:16:39 PM by AnnaGrowsAMustache »

Cassie

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #51 on: February 01, 2020, 08:39:30 PM »
Also I read a Pubmed article yesterday saying that the flu vaccine lowers your ability to fight this virus. It’s called virus interference. Now the link won’t work.

AnnaGrowsAMustache

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #52 on: February 01, 2020, 09:13:47 PM »
Also I read a Pubmed article yesterday saying that the flu vaccine lowers your ability to fight this virus. It’s called virus interference. Now the link won’t work.

My understanding of viral interference is quite the other way around - exposure to one virus can produce an immuno response to an entirely different virus. For example (and this is how vaccines where invented), exposure to cowpox by milkmaids back in the 1400s generally meant they did not get smallpox. You know the fairytales have the fresh complexioned, fecund and mythically beautiful milk maid? Well, aside from the fact she was probably getting quite a lot of dairy products, she might well have looked better than most people when smallpox was very common.

I'm pretty sure that viral interference has been under research for a looooong time, and it's not that well understood in human subjects. Quite difficult to know what people have been exposed to in their lives, so difficult to know what any "interference" was caused by.

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #53 on: February 01, 2020, 11:15:05 PM »
Also I read a Pubmed article yesterday saying that the flu vaccine lowers your ability to fight this virus. It’s called virus interference. Now the link won’t work.

My understanding of viral interference is quite the other way around - exposure to one virus can produce an immuno response to an entirely different virus. For example (and this is how vaccines where invented), exposure to cowpox by milkmaids back in the 1400s generally meant they did not get smallpox. You know the fairytales have the fresh complexioned, fecund and mythically beautiful milk maid? Well, aside from the fact she was probably getting quite a lot of dairy products, she might well have looked better than most people when smallpox was very common.

I'm pretty sure that viral interference has been under research for a looooong time, and it's not that well understood in human subjects. Quite difficult to know what people have been exposed to in their lives, so difficult to know what any "interference" was caused by.
Possibly not referring to interference but instead something like this:
Quote
We randomized 115 children to trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV) or placebo. Over the following 9 months, TIV recipients had an increased risk of virologically-confirmed non-influenza infections (relative risk: 4.40; 95% confidence interval: 1.31-14.8). Being protected against influenza, TIV recipients may lack temporary non-specific immunity that protected against other respiratory viruses.

Cassie

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #54 on: February 02, 2020, 07:22:17 PM »
I really wish I had copied the article because it makes me wonder why they took it down so fast.

LennStar

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #55 on: February 03, 2020, 10:42:12 AM »
I really wish I had copied the article because it makes me wonder why they took it down so fast.
The one lost in the endless aisle has posted is still up

Sibley

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #56 on: February 04, 2020, 09:49:39 AM »
So, just in case anyone needs a reminder: Circle of Control.

Wash your hands. Avoid sick people as best you can. Wash your hands. Don't touch your face. Wash your hands.

And most importantly: wash your hands.

Cassie - even if the flu shot is somehow detrimental to this particular virus, what are the odds of you being exposed to the flu vs. this new virus? And if you'd be in trouble with this virus, you're also likely going to be in trouble with the flu, or even a cold. You're better off doing what you can to support your overall health and avoid getting sick. Wash your hands! That's assuming that the flu shot is detrimental, based on my (general) understanding of the immune system, I doubt that's a serious risk.

Re the numbers coming out of China, they're not accurate, there's no way. Between deliberate fudging, natural under/over counting due to mild cases or mis-identified cases, and presumably chaos in trying to compile numbers... there's no way they're right. They might be in ballpark, they may be way out. We won't know for a while. Take all numbers with a huge grain of salt, and then go wash your hands.

Davnasty

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #57 on: February 04, 2020, 10:00:44 AM »

Paul der Krake

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #58 on: February 04, 2020, 10:09:48 AM »

electriceagle

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #59 on: March 04, 2020, 05:26:25 AM »
nConv-2019 has an R0 of 1.4 to 3.8 (or more, some Chinese researchers put it at 5.5) and a mortality rate of ~2%


You are right, seems to be 2%. Strange, I was quite sure that the infected were already above 100K, instead the table from yesterday shows 11700. Maybe it was headline from some shitty "newspaper" that talked about 100K+

Maybe here? Again, this is novel, reporting what we know when we know it doesn't mean the reporting was shitty. It means that some legitimate accredited epidemiological researcher thinks that there might be 100K wild cases because a real credible mathematical model says so. Also, no one is quite sure how honest China is being with their data.

EDITed to add - just because you have 100K infections and 100 deaths doesn't make the mortality rate 0.1%, because you need to give people time to die.

I would worry about people in slums in poor countries, as the combination of poor nutrition, poor lifetime health care, and poor incident-specific health care are likely to hit them hard.
« Last Edit: March 29, 2020, 01:48:34 PM by electriceagle »

partgypsy

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #60 on: March 04, 2020, 05:37:47 AM »
It could go either way. We as a country have things going for us, and things going against us.  Us population is more spread out and we have in general higher quality hospitals (and great research). Downsides is that we are a highly mobile population, and our health coverage is spotty. Alot of under insured, uninsured also homeless who are not going to get treated in a timely manner, also may continue to work/be out in public during that time. Also the CDC and nih, in particular funding for public health and pandemic response was hollowed out under trump. We are less prepared now than we were 5 years ago for this kind of thing.

OtherJen

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #61 on: March 04, 2020, 06:57:22 AM »
Don’t be this jerk, folks. If you’re ordered to self-isolate, then yes, the rules do apply to you.
NH’s 1st Coronavirus Patient, Told to Stay Isolated, Went to Event Instead

PDXTabs

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #62 on: March 04, 2020, 09:42:24 AM »
My guess is that the number of infections reported is artificially low and the mortality rate is artificially high.

You think that there isn't a single epidemiologist on staff at the WHO? Or perhaps you haven't noticed that South Korea is testing 20 people to find one case of Covid-19?

Cassie

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #63 on: March 04, 2020, 12:18:47 PM »
I have always been vigilant about hand washing.  I have no medical background so appreciate people’s responses especially if you do. Since we are retired we can self quarantine. I can’t imagine being so selfish as to put others at risk just because you don’t want to stay home.   Locally we have no cases yet.   Like many others I have 2 inherited conditions despite taking good care of myself. I am grateful it’s not hitting kids hard because as much as I want to live having a child die is horrendous.  I am not panicking because it’s outside my circle of control.

SisterX

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #64 on: March 04, 2020, 01:20:42 PM »

I would not worry too much about coronavirus in the US, except if/when it gets into a nursing home or similar place with a lot of immunocompromised people in close quarters.

I would worry about people in slums in poor countries, as the combination of poor nutrition, poor lifetime health care, and poor incident-specific health care are likely to hit them hard.

I was going to say that this comment had aged like milk, but apparently you don't read/watch the news. It has hit a skilled nursing facility in Kirkland, WA. That's why we suddenly jumped up to 9 deaths in just a few days. (One was a death that hadn't previously been tied to COVID-19 but postmortem testing showed that it was the likely cause of death.)

My mom is in hospice and her facility is locked down (in Seattle) because of this. I'm not worried that she'll die because of it (she's dying anyway), I'm worried that she'll die without the family getting to see her again and say goodbye.

Maybe some of you don't have elderly or immunocompromised loved ones?

As to OP's question, yes. Here in Seattle we've prepped. Not guns 'n ammo 'n toilet paper. What I mean is that I watched this unfolding, and fortuitously guessed correctly that I should make my quarterly Costco run a few days early. As it turned out, I made that run the day before the news of community transition in WA came out, and not long before the first death. So I avoided the rush. And now we have lots of food, so we're going to get creative and see how long we can go without feeling deprived. (We get milk and eggs delivered.) HusbandX works from home, so we're doing some light social distancing. And we have a few extra prepared foods on hand in case the adults in our household get sick, so we can still feed the kids. (This illness doesn't seem to affect them as much, so if they get sick it will likely be milder than for the adults.) Other than that, we are still exercising, taking in fresh air (gotta walk the dog and get the kid from school, get the garden ready), eating well, etc.

Worst case scenario for all of this: We save a little money by not running to the store a few times every week, and don't have to buy certain foods for a while. The other side of the coin: Our family get sick but it's not a major event because we've planned for it. I don't see either of those as a bad outcome.

Boofinator

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #65 on: March 04, 2020, 01:57:07 PM »
Don’t be this jerk, folks. If you’re ordered to self-isolate, then yes, the rules do apply to you.
NH’s 1st Coronavirus Patient, Told to Stay Isolated, Went to Event Instead

Quote
A New Hampshire hospital employee diagnosed with coronavirus broke quarantine to attend an event on Feb. 28, “despite having been directed to self-isolate” the state’s Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) has confirmed in a press release. The DHHS has since issued an official order of isolation for the man.

Jerkiness^2.

kenmoremmm

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #66 on: March 04, 2020, 02:42:58 PM »
Worst case scenario for all of this: We save a little money by not running to the store a few times every week, and don't have to buy certain foods for a while. The other side of the coin: Our family get sick but it's not a major event because we've planned for it. I don't see either of those as a bad outcome.
i think worst case scenario is that the US has intermittent quarantines for the next year+, sending everything into chaos and severe recession. locally, here in W Washington, we have, what, 50 schools closed now? how long will that go on? when they reopen, and someone else gets sick, will they shut down again? rinse and repeat for months/years until someone finally says: ok, just let it spread?

electriceagle

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #67 on: March 04, 2020, 03:17:39 PM »

I would not worry too much about coronavirus in the US, except if/when it gets into a nursing home or similar place with a lot of immunocompromised people in close quarters.

I would worry about people in slums in poor countries, as the combination of poor nutrition, poor lifetime health care, and poor incident-specific health care are likely to hit them hard.

I was going to say that this comment had aged like milk, but apparently you don't read/watch the news. It has hit a skilled nursing facility in Kirkland, WA. That's why we suddenly jumped up to 9 deaths in just a few days. (One was a death that hadn't previously been tied to COVID-19 but postmortem testing showed that it was the likely cause of death.)

My mom is in hospice and her facility is locked down (in Seattle) because of this. I'm not worried that she'll die because of it (she's dying anyway), I'm worried that she'll die without the family getting to see her again and say goodbye.

Sorry, but I don't watch the news unless it is forced upon me.

I'm sorry to hear about your mom.

American GenX

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #68 on: March 04, 2020, 04:01:34 PM »

lexde

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #69 on: March 04, 2020, 04:11:24 PM »
Few cases in my state, but not my immediate area yet.
I went ahead and bought a few cases of water and nonperishables (gatorade mix, dry beans, rice, tinned tomatoes) and an extra bag of food for my dog.
More just to ensure that I don't have to go to crowded grocery stores than any doomsday prepping. I needed supplies, anyway, in case I lose power during another storm, so it can't hurt.

SisterX

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #70 on: March 04, 2020, 05:30:27 PM »
Worst case scenario for all of this: We save a little money by not running to the store a few times every week, and don't have to buy certain foods for a while. The other side of the coin: Our family get sick but it's not a major event because we've planned for it. I don't see either of those as a bad outcome.
i think worst case scenario is that the US has intermittent quarantines for the next year+, sending everything into chaos and severe recession. locally, here in W Washington, we have, what, 50 schools closed now? how long will that go on? when they reopen, and someone else gets sick, will they shut down again? rinse and repeat for months/years until someone finally says: ok, just let it spread?

Oh, I meant the worst case scenario in terms of, what if I did "all this preparation" for nothing? It didn't take any extra time (needed to go to Costco anyway), doesn't make me feel panicked (because I'm as prepared as a person can be, given the known facts), and there really isn't a down side. But that's always the argument that comes up in these types of situations. What if you prepare and nothing happens??! Um, okay. That's like asking someone why they're putting up smoke detectors in their house. You don't smoke, what if you never have a house fire? Huh? Bet you'll feel silly then! /s

My point is really that you can prepare for something like this without going overboard, but the "why bother?" camp is always going to be out there acting like anyone who tries to mitigate a potential disaster is getting ready for the zombie apocalypse.

If you want to talk worst case scenarios, there are plenty of them that have gone through my mind. I'm pretty fascinated by all the possibilities, and if things go in certain ways I can actually see some good coming out of it. (Pollution in China is way down!) I also see all the potential downsides to this. It's definitely an interesting event. And hey, it beats the piss out of talking nothing but politics for the next six months (here in the US)!

LennStar

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #71 on: March 05, 2020, 04:32:43 AM »
The ecnomy is booming! Supermarkets in Germany report record sales!!

So far I think we have no death here in Germany because of Covid-19 (likely to change). We do have 280 death caused by the normal influenza in Jan+Feb, a very low number compared to other years, mainly thanks to the incredibly warm weather.

Freedom2016

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #72 on: March 05, 2020, 09:09:03 AM »
Could use some advice: I am scheduled to go to Israel for work on 3/15. Right now there are no travel restrictions for Israel (or in Israel for visitors from the U.S.), though there are now 15 COVID-19 cases in Israel, and of course increasing numbers of cases in the U.S.

It's possible that new travel restrictions will be put in place before my departure date, which would make the go/no go decision for me.

But if there are no announced travel restrictions on/by the 15th, should I still go?

I am worried about getting stuck in Israel if the situation changes suddenly while I'm there (new travel restrictions or in-country quarantines) - I can't really afford to be away from my kids and spouse for 2+ weeks if that happens.

I'm not ordinarily a risk-averse person, but I'm not sure how to weigh this out. The two colleagues that I'm going with also have spouses and young children and I don't hear them voicing any of these concerns.

What would you do?

former player

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #73 on: March 05, 2020, 09:17:05 AM »
Could use some advice: I am scheduled to go to Israel for work on 3/15. Right now there are no travel restrictions for Israel (or in Israel for visitors from the U.S.), though there are now 15 COVID-19 cases in Israel, and of course increasing numbers of cases in the U.S.

It's possible that new travel restrictions will be put in place before my departure date, which would make the go/no go decision for me.

But if there are no announced travel restrictions on/by the 15th, should I still go?

I am worried about getting stuck in Israel if the situation changes suddenly while I'm there (new travel restrictions or in-country quarantines) - I can't really afford to be away from my kids and spouse for 2+ weeks if that happens.

I'm not ordinarily a risk-averse person, but I'm not sure how to weigh this out. The two colleagues that I'm going with also have spouses and young children and I don't hear them voicing any of these concerns.

What would you do?
I can't see Trump tolerating a travel ban that involves Israel.

Cassie

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #74 on: March 05, 2020, 09:27:48 AM »
Personally I wouldn’t go. Some people think that it won’t happen to them.

GuitarStv

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #75 on: March 05, 2020, 10:25:42 AM »
Could use some advice: I am scheduled to go to Israel for work on 3/15. Right now there are no travel restrictions for Israel (or in Israel for visitors from the U.S.), though there are now 15 COVID-19 cases in Israel, and of course increasing numbers of cases in the U.S.

It's possible that new travel restrictions will be put in place before my departure date, which would make the go/no go decision for me.

But if there are no announced travel restrictions on/by the 15th, should I still go?

I am worried about getting stuck in Israel if the situation changes suddenly while I'm there (new travel restrictions or in-country quarantines) - I can't really afford to be away from my kids and spouse for 2+ weeks if that happens.

I'm not ordinarily a risk-averse person, but I'm not sure how to weigh this out. The two colleagues that I'm going with also have spouses and young children and I don't hear them voicing any of these concerns.

What would you do?
I can't see Trump tolerating a travel ban that involves Israel.

Trump banning travel from Israel does seem unlikely.  That said, he does listen to advisers from time to time . . . and nobody knows where the next major outbreak will happen.  Israel doesn't have too many cases yet.  Travel does significantly increase your risk of infection (simply from a 'contact with other people' point of view) but if you're under 40, there's little risk that the virus will kill you.  You will certainly be quarantined if you get sick though and will be away from your spouse/kids for 2+ weeks.

Roots&Wings

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #76 on: March 06, 2020, 06:16:55 AM »
I also would not go and cancelled a work trip recently. You potentially can get a doctor's note requesting that you be excused from the trip due to coronavirus concerns, if your company does not formally cancel non-essential travel.

This has been spreading undetected in the US for awhile, and some states are still not testing unless there is known travel from China/Italy/Iran or hospitalization. The first few cases in my state involved people taking flights on 2/26, when I also was flying. I'd just as soon not risk exposing others.

kenmoremmm

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #77 on: March 06, 2020, 11:00:27 PM »
here's some fun math:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1236095180459003909.html

at some point, a govt authority (state/federal) will need to instruct citizens to remain at work, otherwise it will result in a complete meltdown of our economic engine, food supply, consumables, etc. the virus will need to spread to the whole population. those 50+ or immunocompromised will have to hide.

i really don't see an alternative to this. our society is too on-demand. too industrialized. when the chain breaks down, the SHTF, hard. civil unrest, riots, pillaging, etc are not unreasonable, especially here in the US with no national healthcare, no safety nets (unless you're a bank), and a lot of guns.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #78 on: March 07, 2020, 10:35:39 AM »
here's some fun math:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1236095180459003909.html

at some point, a govt authority (state/federal) will need to instruct citizens to remain at work, otherwise it will result in a complete meltdown of our economic engine, food supply, consumables, etc. the virus will need to spread to the whole population. those 50+ or immunocompromised will have to hide.

i really don't see an alternative to this. our society is too on-demand. too industrialized. when the chain breaks down, the SHTF, hard. civil unrest, riots, pillaging, etc are not unreasonable, especially here in the US with no national healthcare, no safety nets (unless you're a bank), and a lot of guns.

Interesting article. 

As for "back to work" orders.  Who would issue such an order?  Further, who would obey or enforce such an order in a time of widespread problems? The compliance rate would likely be less than compliance with hurricane evacuation orders. Compliance with evacuation orders for Hurricane Sandy was less than half.  I think the compliance rate for a quarantine would be higher, but by no means universal. 

dividendman

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #79 on: March 07, 2020, 05:19:34 PM »
here's some fun math:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1236095180459003909.html

at some point, a govt authority (state/federal) will need to instruct citizens to remain at work, otherwise it will result in a complete meltdown of our economic engine, food supply, consumables, etc. the virus will need to spread to the whole population. those 50+ or immunocompromised will have to hide.

i really don't see an alternative to this. our society is too on-demand. too industrialized. when the chain breaks down, the SHTF, hard. civil unrest, riots, pillaging, etc are not unreasonable, especially here in the US with no national healthcare, no safety nets (unless you're a bank), and a lot of guns.

Interesting article. 

As for "back to work" orders.  Who would issue such an order?  Further, who would obey or enforce such an order in a time of widespread problems? The compliance rate would likely be less than compliance with hurricane evacuation orders. Compliance with evacuation orders for Hurricane Sandy was less than half.  I think the compliance rate for a quarantine would be higher, but by no means universal.
Well the military and many government jobs can force you to work (without pay) or be arrested. I doubt civilian jobs would or could legally do that unless Martial Law was enacted and the choice was to be forced (constription) to work or go to jail. Like the Draft.

BTW both the Feds and the states )within their states) have authority to do that if martial law is enacted.

While theoretically possible, it's practically unenforceable to get every industry back to work by force. Really all they can do is ensure critical industries keep working like farming, and only a bit.

But... none of this will happen, so don't worry.

If you really think it will come to this (looting, pillaging, all out chaos), you probably shouldn't be reading internet forums and should be driving to somewhere remote and getting an underground bunker with lots of beans, rice, and ammo.

SisterX

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #80 on: March 08, 2020, 11:06:41 PM »
Oh I'm not worried personally but was just answering a post with what I believe to be a very highly unlikely but legal method to force people to work. I REd, have everything invested in US aluminum foil, underground bunkers and rice and beans so I'm good to go ;-).

Posting from Seattle here - You're waaaay behind the times. Don't you know you should also have enough toilet paper to see everyone you've ever met through Armageddon??! It's what your bunker should be made of!

Seriously, though, the "panic" the media has been talking about here is waaaay overblown. Yeah, the traffic jams are gone because people are working from home more. But I consider that a good thing. Yay, fewer emissions! And when I took my kid to the park today it was busy busy. COVID-19 is a daily topic of conversation but no one--including the family I know who's under self-quarantine due to exposure--is terribly upset. Pragmatic is what I'd say.

If you want to do something helpful, donate money to food banks and homeless shelters. They're going to be pretty stretched for resources. There is also a GoFundMe to help feed healthcare workers in the Seattle area, since they're working overtime. (Already, due to the flu, and now this on top of that.) (I know, I hate GoFundMe too. But that's how this was set up, I don't control it.)

Last, check on your elderly neighbors please.

here's some fun math:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1236095180459003909.html

at some point, a govt authority (state/federal) will need to instruct citizens to remain at work, otherwise it will result in a complete meltdown of our economic engine, food supply, consumables, etc. the virus will need to spread to the whole population. those 50+ or immunocompromised will have to hide.

i really don't see an alternative to this. our society is too on-demand. too industrialized. when the chain breaks down, the SHTF, hard. civil unrest, riots, pillaging, etc are not unreasonable, especially here in the US with no national healthcare, no safety nets (unless you're a bank), and a lot of guns.

I joked to my husband that if this turns into a full-blown survival situation I'm going to be pissed that I only ordered five lbs. of potato starts. :)

One of the CCP's stated reasons for lifting lockdown measures and wanting to get the country back to work was to ensure planting of spring crops happened on time. Farmers in the US are on average older than the general populace (over 55), which since it's the US also generally means in poor health. And since so many rural hospitals have closed in the last decade it also means that they're less likely to receive adequate healthcare (timing can be important), or that there will be enough beds in hospitals to treat all the rural people who cluster at the nearest ones *if this outbreak gets bad enough*. I don't think this will actually happen, at least not enough to impact the food supply. But it is interesting to think about from a purely theoretical standpoint.

Much of what I said above could also be applied to truckers. There aren't enough long-haul truckers in the country as it is, and due to the sedentary job they are generally overweight. If enough of them get sick then things might get rough for a short period of time. But that's a pretty big 'if' at this point. It feels more like speculating about what would happen if Seattle also had a major earthquake at the peak of this outbreak. Could it happen? Sure. Is it likely to? Statistically no. It would be silly to plan around it and assume that it will happen.

Manchester

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #81 on: March 09, 2020, 05:43:38 AM »
Wouldn't anyone else be relieved to see the reduction in air travel, should a widescale flight restriction take place?  More grounded flights mean less damage to the environment.  Similar to the reduction in pollution in China. 

Is it realistic to think this reduction in pollution and global warming might indirectly lead to more lives saved when this ordeal is over?

Boofinator

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #82 on: March 09, 2020, 10:02:01 AM »
Wouldn't anyone else be relieved to see the reduction in air travel, should a widescale flight restriction take place?  More grounded flights mean less damage to the environment.  Similar to the reduction in pollution in China. 

Is it realistic to think this reduction in pollution and global warming might indirectly lead to more lives saved when this ordeal is over?

You win the optimism prize for today, but my realism prize is going to business-as-usual, with only a slight blip in 2020.

Plina

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #83 on: March 09, 2020, 10:47:18 AM »
Wouldn't anyone else be relieved to see the reduction in air travel, should a widescale flight restriction take place?  More grounded flights mean less damage to the environment.  Similar to the reduction in pollution in China. 

Is it realistic to think this reduction in pollution and global warming might indirectly lead to more lives saved when this ordeal is over?

You win the optimism prize for today, but my realism prize is going to business-as-usual, with only a slight blip in 2020.

Hopefully it makes people question the need to travel for meetings. Due to company policys, I have had meetings postponed. Today, it was decided that a meeting were people were going to fly and take the train into was moved to Teams due to company restrictions related to travel.

LennStar

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #84 on: March 09, 2020, 11:55:00 AM »
Wouldn't anyone else be relieved to see the reduction in air travel, should a widescale flight restriction take place?  More grounded flights mean less damage to the environment.  Similar to the reduction in pollution in China. 

Is it realistic to think this reduction in pollution and global warming might indirectly lead to more lives saved when this ordeal is over?
Airplanes fly empty. If they would fly less, the companies would lose their route slots.

At least that is what I have read about the EU, don't know if it is even true.

merula

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #85 on: March 09, 2020, 01:26:08 PM »
Wouldn't anyone else be relieved to see the reduction in air travel, should a widescale flight restriction take place?  More grounded flights mean less damage to the environment.  Similar to the reduction in pollution in China. 

Is it realistic to think this reduction in pollution and global warming might indirectly lead to more lives saved when this ordeal is over?
Airplanes fly empty. If they would fly less, the companies would lose their route slots.

At least that is what I have read about the EU, don't know if it is even true.

That is true it the EU, which is appalling from a climate perspective, especially since the EASA could temporarily ease that regulation based on the current demand. It is not true in the US, because we don't have the same slot regulations. It's possible that there could be localized impacts at a given airport around the assignment of gates, etc., but that seems as likely as not to be spread fairly evenly across the industry. (Some US airports will assign gates to airlines on the basis of scheduled flight frequency. So if a given airline had 20 flights/day, which entitled them to 4 gates, but then they cancelled them all because they were all to China, while all the other airlines at that airport had more evenly-distributed flights, the first airline could lose their gates.)

Secret Stache

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #86 on: March 09, 2020, 02:30:18 PM »
Could use some advice: I am scheduled to go to Israel for work on 3/15. Right now there are no travel restrictions for Israel (or in Israel for visitors from the U.S.), though there are now 15 COVID-19 cases in Israel, and of course increasing numbers of cases in the U.S.

It's possible that new travel restrictions will be put in place before my departure date, which would make the go/no go decision for me.

But if there are no announced travel restrictions on/by the 15th, should I still go?

I am worried about getting stuck in Israel if the situation changes suddenly while I'm there (new travel restrictions or in-country quarantines) - I can't really afford to be away from my kids and spouse for 2+ weeks if that happens.

I'm not ordinarily a risk-averse person, but I'm not sure how to weigh this out. The two colleagues that I'm going with also have spouses and young children and I don't hear them voicing any of these concerns.

What would you do?

FYI, "All people entering Israel from abroad will be required to spend 14 days in home-isolation, the prime minister said Monday. The measure is effective immediately."

https://www.jpost.com/Breaking-News/Israeli-diagnosis-two-more-people-with-coronavirus-patients-40-and-41-620347

Plina

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #87 on: March 09, 2020, 02:45:32 PM »
Wouldn't anyone else be relieved to see the reduction in air travel, should a widescale flight restriction take place?  More grounded flights mean less damage to the environment.  Similar to the reduction in pollution in China. 

Is it realistic to think this reduction in pollution and global warming might indirectly lead to more lives saved when this ordeal is over?
Airplanes fly empty. If they would fly less, the companies would lose their route slots.

At least that is what I have read about the EU, don't know if it is even true.

At least here the airlines are cancelling thousands of flights. It seems to affect 80% of the slots if the EU doesn’t relent the rules.

OtherJen

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #88 on: March 09, 2020, 03:20:51 PM »

PDXTabs

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #89 on: March 09, 2020, 03:26:16 PM »
Well, this escalated quickly: https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-whole-of-italy-put-on-lockdown-11954097

Yes, it makes me wonder what if anything the states will do.

former player

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #90 on: March 09, 2020, 05:06:30 PM »
Wouldn't anyone else be relieved to see the reduction in air travel, should a widescale flight restriction take place?  More grounded flights mean less damage to the environment.  Similar to the reduction in pollution in China. 

Is it realistic to think this reduction in pollution and global warming might indirectly lead to more lives saved when this ordeal is over?
Airplanes fly empty. If they would fly less, the companies would lose their route slots.

At least that is what I have read about the EU, don't know if it is even true.

At least here the airlines are cancelling thousands of flights. It seems to affect 80% of the slots if the EU doesn’t relent the rules.

There's an EU Slots Regulation that says a slot will be lost if it's not at least 80% used.  There are provisions in Article 10 for this not to apply in exceptional circumstances: they weren't drafted to take account of this particular cirucumstance but could possibly be used with a bit of latitude being granted -
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=CELEX:31993R0095&from=EN

kenmoremmm

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #91 on: March 09, 2020, 05:22:49 PM »
Well, this escalated quickly: https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-whole-of-italy-put-on-lockdown-11954097

Yes, it makes me wonder what if anything the states will do.
the US will do nothing - at least from a nationally coordinated standpoint. local jurisdictions are left to fend on their own with all sorts of random people and agencies making decisions.

nearby to me, 1 school district is closed. 4 others are open. microsoft and amazon are telling people to work from home; the rest of us are at work. preschool is closed one week, the open the next.

i feel bad for the countries that are doing due diligence. the US will subvert them all by continually having outbreaks over the course of the next year+. there is only so long you can shut down a whole city/country before shit gets real.

AnnaGrowsAMustache

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #92 on: March 10, 2020, 03:11:08 AM »
Well, this escalated quickly: https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-whole-of-italy-put-on-lockdown-11954097

Yes, it makes me wonder what if anything the states will do.
the US will do nothing - at least from a nationally coordinated standpoint. local jurisdictions are left to fend on their own with all sorts of random people and agencies making decisions.

nearby to me, 1 school district is closed. 4 others are open. microsoft and amazon are telling people to work from home; the rest of us are at work. preschool is closed one week, the open the next.

i feel bad for the countries that are doing due diligence. the US will subvert them all by continually having outbreaks over the course of the next year+. there is only so long you can shut down a whole city/country before shit gets real.

I read an opinion piece that said the USA will suffer more than any other country from this - because you don't have universal paid sick days, you don't have universal health care, and you have a large underclass of people that simply can't afford to not work if they are sick. And those people are in high people contact roles. I guess we'll find out soon enough, huh?

Freedom2016

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #93 on: March 10, 2020, 07:57:07 AM »
Could use some advice: I am scheduled to go to Israel for work on 3/15. Right now there are no travel restrictions for Israel (or in Israel for visitors from the U.S.), though there are now 15 COVID-19 cases in Israel, and of course increasing numbers of cases in the U.S.

It's possible that new travel restrictions will be put in place before my departure date, which would make the go/no go decision for me.

But if there are no announced travel restrictions on/by the 15th, should I still go?

I am worried about getting stuck in Israel if the situation changes suddenly while I'm there (new travel restrictions or in-country quarantines) - I can't really afford to be away from my kids and spouse for 2+ weeks if that happens.

I'm not ordinarily a risk-averse person, but I'm not sure how to weigh this out. The two colleagues that I'm going with also have spouses and young children and I don't hear them voicing any of these concerns.

What would you do?

FYI, "All people entering Israel from abroad will be required to spend 14 days in home-isolation, the prime minister said Monday. The measure is effective immediately."

https://www.jpost.com/Breaking-News/Israeli-diagnosis-two-more-people-with-coronavirus-patients-40-and-41-620347

I had decided last week to bow out anyway, but our trip is now officially cancelled. :) Happily, I got a full refund from United when I cancelled my flight yesterday.


OtherJen

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PDXTabs

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #95 on: March 10, 2020, 08:12:27 PM »

Fru-Gal

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #96 on: March 10, 2020, 11:08:08 PM »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9mrPHO-nkVE

I fear we are 2 weeks away from this. My city not taking it seriously. Bumbling, ineffective & untrained public health workers using PPE haphazardly. Lots of politicians all the way up the chain making assurances but no specifics. I don't need politicians to give me their emotional read on the situation, I need their TACTICAL plans, numbers, supplies, etc! We are not even testing!

Missy B

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #97 on: March 10, 2020, 11:56:46 PM »
South Korea came up with a quick and dirty and cheap virus test and has done nearly 200k tests, found 6K cases.
I'm told the US refuses to do anything similar, and that tests are $1000-3000 each. You can bet that all the high mucky-mucks from Big Pharma are counseling decision-makers 'not to risk the health of Americans on low quality' or some such line of shit, meant to protect their profits.

The US could prevent billion dollar damage to the economy by applying testing like that and sorting out who is spreading now while its still containable, instead of acting like a third-world country with no resources to do anything.

OtherJen

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #98 on: March 11, 2020, 07:45:24 AM »
South Korea came up with a quick and dirty and cheap virus test and has done nearly 200k tests, found 6K cases.
I'm told the US refuses to do anything similar, and that tests are $1000-3000 each. You can bet that all the high mucky-mucks from Big Pharma are counseling decision-makers 'not to risk the health of Americans on low quality' or some such line of shit, meant to protect their profits.

The US could prevent billion dollar damage to the economy by applying testing like that and sorting out who is spreading now while its still containable, instead of acting like a third-world country with no resources to do anything.

No argument here. Instead, the CDC is publicly deferring to the “very stable genius” in the Oval Office, and we don’t have official confirmed infection numbers because those might make him look bad. As far as I know, he refuses to cancel his adoration campaign rallies.

I volunteer at a nursing home/hospice facility. Yesterday, national nursing home industry leaders issued guidelines asking the public to stop all non-essential visits, and my state’s government issued a state of emergency because non-CDC testing has finally confirmed that we do have cases here. Today, one of the facilities where I volunteer just closed their doors to the public. I think there’s a sense that we all have to make decisions at a state, local, or private level because the federal government is not even up to the task of providing unified guidelines.

GuitarStv

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #99 on: March 11, 2020, 07:55:00 AM »
[I think there’s a sense that we all have to make decisions at a state, local, or private level because the federal government is not even up to the task of providing unified guidelines.

Basically, what you're describing is a Libertarian paradise!