Author Topic: Coronavirus is the End of Trump  (Read 26331 times)

John Galt incarnate!

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1083
  • Location: On Cloud Nine
Re: Coronavirus is the End of Trump
« Reply #300 on: March 23, 2020, 01:43:56 PM »


The US is a clusterfuck of competing and overlapping agencies and organisations and departments and lobby groups and political action committees with checks and balances and regulations and procedures and people having quiet meetings off the books to get what they want done and so on and so forth. This is why you never get anything done.   Now, this means your government can never do anything really awful,but it also means it can never do anything really useful.

The Framers endeavored  to design a country of enduring, maximum liberty.

The Framers'  dread of  a concentration of power is the overarching reason they formed  a tripartite, check-and-balances  national government.

 
And  in keeping with their commitment to dispersion of power they granted  each State its own sovereignty under the Tenth Amendment's principle of federalism.

The result is an America   comprised of 51 sovereign powers, the federal government plus the 50 States.

While speaking  at a law school in Hawaii Justice Scalia  said  "it's game over" if a concentration of power ever obtains.

During a rare appearance on a morning TV show Justice Gorsuch also emphasized the essentiality  of limited power, and that the meaning of the Constitution's fundamental law, and its other provisions, is found in the definition  of the words  the Framers used at the time they drafted the Constitution.

This interpretative approach preserves  fundamental liberties.



Here is Justice Black's  inimitable reverence for  "Our Federalism."

Younger v. Harris (1971)
This underlying reason for restraining courts of equity from interfering with criminal prosecutions is reinforced by an even more vital consideration, the notion of "comity," that is, a proper respect for state functions, a recognition of the fact that the entire country is made up of a Union of separate state governments, and a continuance of the belief that the National Government will fare best if the States and their institutions are left free to perform their separate functions in their separate ways.


This, perhaps for lack of a better and clearer way to describe it, is referred to by many as "Our Federalism," and one familiar with the profound debates that ushered our Federal Constitution into existence is bound to respect those who remain loyal to the ideals and dreams of "Our Federalism."

The concept does not mean blind deference to "States' Rights" any more than it means centralization of control over every important issue in our National Government and its courts.

The Framers rejected both these courses.

What the concept does represent is a system in which there is sensitivity to the legitimate interests of both State and National Governments, and in which the National Government, anxious though it may be to vindicate and protect federal rights and federal interests, always endeavors to do so in ways that will not unduly interfere with the legitimate activities of the States.

It should never be forgotten that this slogan, "Our Federalism," born in the early struggling days of our Union of States, occupies a highly important place in our Nation's history and its future.



ender

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5301
Re: Coronavirus is the End of Trump
« Reply #301 on: March 23, 2020, 05:27:34 PM »
My fear is that Teflon Don actually gets re-elected over this because:
a)  by continuing to call it the Chinese virus he gets to blame another country, and reinforce his emphasis on protecting our borders;
b)  he will get voters to believe that they should not change leadership in the middle of an unprecedented health and financial pandemic.

Hence, pandemic = DT re-elected.

I'm not so sure. 90% of the responses I get when I talk politics is "but how is your 401(k) doing?" - and now that that's shot (Dow is at what, 18,825 right now?) I don't know that a lot of his supporters will continue to vote for him. That said, his competition has to start speaking up with actual solutions to these immediate problems, otherwise the bolstering may (barely) out-bid the silence.

The flip side is if this takes 3 months to resolve and does so in a way that hasn't done long term economic damage, it's possible the market rockets up right before the election, which of course Trump will take credit for and perhaps have the opposite effect.


EscapeVelocity2020

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2760
  • Age: 46
  • Location: Houston
    • EscapeVelocity2020
Re: Coronavirus is the End of Trump
« Reply #302 on: March 23, 2020, 11:52:01 PM »
My fear is that Teflon Don actually gets re-elected over this because:
a)  by continuing to call it the Chinese virus he gets to blame another country, and reinforce his emphasis on protecting our borders;
b)  he will get voters to believe that they should not change leadership in the middle of an unprecedented health and financial pandemic.

Hence, pandemic = DT re-elected.

I'm not so sure. 90% of the responses I get when I talk politics is "but how is your 401(k) doing?" - and now that that's shot (Dow is at what, 18,825 right now?) I don't know that a lot of his supporters will continue to vote for him. That said, his competition has to start speaking up with actual solutions to these immediate problems, otherwise the bolstering may (barely) out-bid the silence.

The flip side is if this takes 3 months to resolve and does so in a way that hasn't done long term economic damage, it's possible the market rockets up right before the election, which of course Trump will take credit for and perhaps have the opposite effect.

Well, if you are willing to bet on science and the fact that Trump is putting the economy (and his narcissism and ignorance) ahead of the essential steps required to stop the virus from spreading, then we are in for a further deteriorating market and situation for the foreseeable future, with a bunch of 'exciting' ups and downs along the way.  Still, it is possible that folks see Trump as a wartime President and choose the 'reassuring reality TV persona' over the unknown.  Americans, more than anyone, prefer the promise of a quick fix (chloroquine tablets, conspiracy theories, blaming fake news and foreigners) vs. facing reality (putting in time and personal sacrifice).  Being 'free' is a double edged sword.  This election just might boil down to choosing between a 'deep fried chicken sandwich' (so tasty and tempting, but will kill you in the medium term) vs. 'veggies and salad' (boring, but better in the long run) for President.

talltexan

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3106
Re: Coronavirus is the End of Trump
« Reply #303 on: March 24, 2020, 06:57:27 AM »
The thing is that Biden is not a perfect candidate. He has tried for the office before, with there often being better candidates running then. He didn't challenge Clinton in 2016, for whatever reason. It doesn't mean it wouldn't be an improvement from our current President, but your salad analogy breaks down a little there.

And--when life returns to anything like normalcy--there's also the 40% of the country who simply believe it's a recession whenever the person in the White House has a D after his name.

ctuser1

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 610
Re: Coronavirus is the End of Trump
« Reply #304 on: March 24, 2020, 06:59:13 AM »
there's also the 40% of the country who simply believe it's a recession whenever the person in the White House has a D after his name.

How much do they contribute economically? To the GDP?

talltexan

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3106
Re: Coronavirus is the End of Trump
« Reply #305 on: March 24, 2020, 07:01:12 AM »
Many of the ones I've met in this group own (small) businesses.

ctuser1

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 610
Re: Coronavirus is the End of Trump
« Reply #306 on: March 24, 2020, 07:24:29 AM »
Many of the ones I've met in this group own (small) businesses.

Yes, they are very important for the specific, local economy.

How important are those specific local economies to the US economy?
Some stats: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2016/11/29/another-clinton-trump-divide-high-output-america-vs-low-output-america/

I could not find specific economic projections - but from the charts and lists it seems to me that one-third of GDP represented by "Trump Counties" are also primarily declining ones. So, if the trend from 2000->2016 continues, the "trump counties" will likely be no  more than a fourth or a fifth of the GDP (this is entirely a "gut feel statement" without numbers backing it up to any degree of rigor).

My point is, the economic importance of those "40%" that you cite is much less than their "40% share of electorate" would seem to imply.

talltexan

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3106
Re: Coronavirus is the End of Trump
« Reply #307 on: March 24, 2020, 09:00:06 AM »
This is good data analysis, particularly the growth piece. I wonder whether looking at the blue counties wouldn't yield the result that the wealthier people IN those blue counties tend to still support Republicans? (with the counties being blue because those wealthy supporters are few in number)

ctuser1

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 610
Re: Coronavirus is the End of Trump
« Reply #308 on: March 24, 2020, 09:10:08 AM »
This is good data analysis, particularly the growth piece. I wonder whether looking at the blue counties wouldn't yield the result that the wealthier people IN those blue counties tend to still support Republicans? (with the counties being blue because those wealthy supporters are few in number)

It is difficult to get a handle on the actual data.

My gut feel - it is unlikely in the coastal areas that the wealthier people are closet Trump supporters.

Trump supporters fall in two categories where I live (CT) and work (Manhattan):
1. Non college educated people. Think plumbers, builders etc. While some of them can be wealthy, the average is anything but in places where 100k is considered a lower-middle-class income.
2. A few of the higher income people, more to stand out as contrarians.

Vast majority of your typical, run-of-the-mill doctors, engineers, bankers profess to have a deep dislike for Trumpism.

It is, of course, always possible that some of those typical run-of-the-mill upper middle class people hide their true feelings. I think the best substitute is to take the actual voting numbers in all the different counties in 2018 election. That would not paint a good picture for Trumpism in these states.

But, even if for argument's sake the wealthy people in the coastal areas were actually closet trump supporters, I doubt they would think we are in a recession any time a democrat is a president. After all, they are used to living under a liberal state government, and a population that tends to be very liberal. So, it seems plausible that they are not relevant for the specific discussion at hand.
 
« Last Edit: March 24, 2020, 09:27:54 AM by ctuser1 »

skp

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 151
  • Location: oh
Re: Coronavirus is the End of Trump
« Reply #309 on: March 24, 2020, 11:19:55 AM »
there's also the 40% of the country who simply believe it's a recession whenever the person in the White House has a D after his name.

How much do they contribute economically? To the GDP?
When you talk about contributing economically GDP  I'm not sure what you are getting at here.  What is your point?  Do you mean do they own stock? That they are business owners?
That their opinion doesn't matter?

As for 40% of the country thinking that there is a recession if the person in the White house has a D after his name. I think that is an exaggeration.  I grew up blue collar.  My husband blue collar and we are both college educated and we own a lot of stock.  My husband is an engineer with a masters degree.   I can tell you that we and that the people I know who are republicans care more about unemployment numbers and that the people they know and love have a job that hopefully they like  and can support themselves with.  So yes, if you are talking stock here,  it and less about their stock market portfolios.  (Not that we don't care about it but we care less ) .    Since Ds are known as being anti business.  They are fearful for their job.  It was drummed into me as a child how important it is to have a job.

  What worries me about the current situation is less my stock losses or even my own health (I am a nurse nearing retirement age and WILL be exposed to coronavirus.  I can't run and hide even if I wanted to) and more that my adult children could potentially end up homeless because they are going to be unemployed. I like Trump am not sure that I want the cure to be worse than the disease.
 

ctuser1

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 610
Re: Coronavirus is the End of Trump
« Reply #310 on: March 24, 2020, 11:59:17 AM »
there's also the 40% of the country who simply believe it's a recession whenever the person in the White House has a D after his name.

How much do they contribute economically? To the GDP?
When you talk about contributing economically GDP  I'm not sure what you are getting at here.  What is your point?  Do you mean do they own stock? That they are business owners?
That their opinion doesn't matter?

As for 40% of the country thinking that there is a recession if the person in the White house has a D after his name. I think that is an exaggeration.  I grew up blue collar.  My husband blue collar and we are both college educated and we own a lot of stock.  My husband is an engineer with a masters degree.   I can tell you that we and that the people I know who are republicans care more about unemployment numbers and that the people they know and love have a job that hopefully they like  and can support themselves with.  So yes, if you are talking stock here,  it and less about their stock market portfolios.  (Not that we don't care about it but we care less ) .    Since Ds are known as being anti business.  They are fearful for their job.  It was drummed into me as a child how important it is to have a job.

  What worries me about the current situation is less my stock losses or even my own health (I am a nurse nearing retirement age and WILL be exposed to coronavirus.  I can't run and hide even if I wanted to) and more that my adult children could potentially end up homeless because they are going to be unemployed. I like Trump am not sure that I want the cure to be worse than the disease.

When talltexan talked about people who act as if the country is in recession if a D is president - then he is describing people with an extremely partisan viewpoint who DO NOT consider political opposition as legitimate, i.e. they do not consider democracy itself to be legitimate!!

We can plainly deduce that a lot of such people exist. Otherwise gerrymandering and voter suppression efforts would not be so prevalent in the republican states.

My point was that they don't exactly carry as much economic weight as the 40% figure talltexan was citing.

I acknowledge my response was based on "gut feel" and not a rigorous data analysis. I doubt such a data analysis is even feasible short of a massive research project. So I'd agree with your comment that the 40% figure seem to be an exeggeration.

>> Since Ds are known as being anti business.

I find this statement to be a little difficult to digest for many reasons. I don't know where you live. Where I live, there would be plenty of business owners, startup founders etc who would argue it is GOP policies that are counter-growth and counter-innovation. e.g. I know I myself did not take a risky plunge into joining a startup because I could not risk the group health insurance from megacorp right before my first daughter was due.

But, I guess this thread is not a good place for that discussion.


« Last Edit: March 24, 2020, 12:02:07 PM by ctuser1 »

wenchsenior

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2356
Re: Coronavirus is the End of Trump
« Reply #311 on: March 24, 2020, 02:07:02 PM »
...and in "either I'm going insane or the world is" news, Trump's approval ratings have ticked UP during this past few weeks of mixed-message insanity.  It's early days yet, but still pretty amazing.

Not just one poll either; Fivethirtyeight's metadata analyses show the same.



Kris

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4965
Re: Coronavirus is the End of Trump
« Reply #312 on: March 24, 2020, 02:15:52 PM »
...and in "either I'm going insane or the world is" news, Trump's approval ratings have ticked UP during this past few weeks of mixed-message insanity.  It's early days yet, but still pretty amazing.

Not just one poll either; Fivethirtyeight's metadata analyses show the same.

Ignorance is contagious, too.

talltexan

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3106
Re: Coronavirus is the End of Trump
« Reply #313 on: March 24, 2020, 02:27:39 PM »
Frankly, I interacted with a ton of small business owners who felt like Obamacare fucked them over, and didn't like Obama because of that. You have only to look at the rise of the NFIB sentiment index (or even consumer sentiment) immediately follow Trump's election to realize how many of these people there are.

American GenX

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 330
Re: Coronavirus is the End of Trump
« Reply #314 on: March 24, 2020, 05:38:02 PM »
...and in "either I'm going insane or the world is" news, Trump's approval ratings have ticked UP during this past few weeks of mixed-message insanity.  It's early days yet, but still pretty amazing.

Not just one poll either; Fivethirtyeight's metadata analyses show the same.

I haven't bee reading polls, but it's amazing if true.  My opinion of Trump continues to decline, to new lows this week.  What he says has gotten beyond ridiculous.

American GenX

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 330
Re: Coronavirus is the End of Trump
« Reply #315 on: March 24, 2020, 06:12:10 PM »
I read this in the NY Times.

Mr. Trump's performance has put on display the traits that Democrats and some Republicans consider so jarring -- the profound need for personal praise, the propensity to blame others, the lack of human empathy, the pension for rewriting history, the disregard for expertise, the distortion of facts, the impatience with scrutiny or criticism. For years, skeptics expressed concern about how he would handle a genuine crisis threatening the nation, and now they know.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/21/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-leadership.html

LaineyAZ

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 327

MDM

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 9924
Re: Coronavirus is the End of Trump
« Reply #317 on: March 24, 2020, 08:44:50 PM »
Perhaps because the more people look at Biden and Pelosi, Trump doesn't seem so bad.

One would think either party could capture the political high ground by proposing a "just help people directly affected and not attach other baggage" bill, but the reflex actions of both parties seem too strong to allow for that.

OzzieandHarriet

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 373
« Last Edit: March 24, 2020, 09:05:46 PM by OzzieandHarriet »

martyconlonontherun

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 271
Re: Coronavirus is the End of Trump
« Reply #319 on: March 24, 2020, 09:08:10 PM »
I read this in the NY Times.

Mr. Trump's performance has put on display the traits that Democrats and some Republicans consider so jarring -- the profound need for personal praise, the propensity to blame others, the lack of human empathy, the pension for rewriting history, the disregard for expertise, the distortion of facts, the impatience with scrutiny or criticism. For years, skeptics expressed concern about how he would handle a genuine crisis threatening the nation, and now they know.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/21/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-leadership.html

Unbelievable how that quote describes anyone of his press conferences

sui generis

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1338
Re: Coronavirus is the End of Trump
« Reply #320 on: March 24, 2020, 09:10:32 PM »
And yet his approval rating is back up to 50%.
https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/489340-poll-trump-lands-50-percent-approval-for-first-time-in-two

That is truly disturbing.

This is no doubt more accurate:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?cid=rrpromo

Probably more accurate, but still disturbing in that it has gone up in recent days.  Even if he's jumping over the very low bar of doing something to address the crisis, I can't believe there are people that have changed their minds about him over the very poor performance compared to like most of the rest of humanity.

OzzieandHarriet

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 373
Re: Coronavirus is the End of Trump
« Reply #321 on: March 24, 2020, 09:19:24 PM »
And yet his approval rating is back up to 50%.
https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/489340-poll-trump-lands-50-percent-approval-for-first-time-in-two

That is truly disturbing.

This is no doubt more accurate:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?cid=rrpromo

Probably more accurate, but still disturbing in that it has gone up in recent days.  Even if he's jumping over the very low bar of doing something to address the crisis, I can't believe there are people that have changed their minds about him over the very poor performance compared to like most of the rest of humanity.

Perhaps this explains it:

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/02/05/trumps-rising-approval-numbers-resulting-from-differential-nonresponse/

sui generis

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1338
Re: Coronavirus is the End of Trump
« Reply #322 on: March 24, 2020, 09:32:58 PM »
And yet his approval rating is back up to 50%.
https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/489340-poll-trump-lands-50-percent-approval-for-first-time-in-two

That is truly disturbing.

This is no doubt more accurate:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?cid=rrpromo

Probably more accurate, but still disturbing in that it has gone up in recent days.  Even if he's jumping over the very low bar of doing something to address the crisis, I can't believe there are people that have changed their minds about him over the very poor performance compared to like most of the rest of humanity.

Perhaps this explains it:

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/02/05/trumps-rising-approval-numbers-resulting-from-differential-nonresponse/

Interesting, thanks for sharing.

MilesTeg

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1026
Re: Coronavirus is the End of Trump
« Reply #323 on: March 25, 2020, 12:57:37 AM »
This is good data analysis, particularly the growth piece. I wonder whether looking at the blue counties wouldn't yield the result that the wealthier people IN those blue counties tend to still support Republicans? (with the counties being blue because those wealthy supporters are few in number)

It is difficult to get a handle on the actual data.

My gut feel - it is unlikely in the coastal areas that the wealthier people are closet Trump supporters.

Trump supporters fall in two categories where I live (CT) and work (Manhattan):
1. Non college educated people. Think plumbers, builders etc. While some of them can be wealthy, the average is anything but in places where 100k is considered a lower-middle-class income.
2. A few of the higher income people, more to stand out as contrarians.

Vast majority of your typical, run-of-the-mill doctors, engineers, bankers profess to have a deep dislike for Trumpism.

It is, of course, always possible that some of those typical run-of-the-mill upper middle class people hide their true feelings. I think the best substitute is to take the actual voting numbers in all the different counties in 2018 election. That would not paint a good picture for Trumpism in these states.

But, even if for argument's sake the wealthy people in the coastal areas were actually closet trump supporters, I doubt they would think we are in a recession any time a democrat is a president. After all, they are used to living under a liberal state government, and a population that tends to be very liberal. So, it seems plausible that they are not relevant for the specific discussion at hand.

Don't underestimate the stupid of trumpism. There are legions if trump supporters that will flat out tell you Trump inherited a dumppster fire of an economy.

Panly

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 115
Re: Coronavirus is the End of Trump
« Reply #324 on: March 25, 2020, 04:01:37 AM »

Trump will remain president.

There won't be an election as you know it. Esp. not if there's a remote chance he'd lose the vote. 


A way will be found to drastically reduce D voter turnout (in swing states) and that will seal it.
 

 


AnnaGrowsAMustache

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1422
Re: Coronavirus is the End of Trump
« Reply #325 on: March 25, 2020, 04:15:06 AM »
Trump isn't a president; he's a cult leader. There isn't a way to get rid of him now.

ctuser1

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 610
Re: Coronavirus is the End of Trump
« Reply #326 on: March 25, 2020, 04:56:04 AM »
Whether Trump wins or loses in the Nov election is an important issue, but comparatively it's an insignificant detail next to another related issue that is *far* more important - belief in "trumpism" among trump followers.

The ardent belief in "Trumpism" among a large section of the population is what Trump derives his power from. Even if Trump loses, Trumpism can come back again next time, and will almost certainly be much more virulent at that time because *anyone else* would likely be more competent than Trump - with much greater capacity to cause damage.

So, whether Trump wins or loses in 2020 is not exactly the issue that I lose sleep over. I am much more interested in handicapping the underlying thought process of a Trump supporter.


DadJokes

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1337
Re: Coronavirus is the End of Trump
« Reply #327 on: March 25, 2020, 05:17:57 AM »
Prior to 2008, there were a lot of people who thought that Bush Jr. would find a way to remain in office, because they viewed him as a dictator. I find it odd that people as smart and level-headed as the MMM crowd would believe the same nonsense about Trump.

ctuser1

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 610
Re: Coronavirus is the End of Trump
« Reply #328 on: March 25, 2020, 05:33:40 AM »
Frankly, I interacted with a ton of small business owners who felt like Obamacare fucked them over, and didn't like Obama because of that.

<not directly related to "how many such people are there" or "how big an economic impact they have">
I remember having some interesting conversations with small business owners on this topic right after '08.

Ultimately, whenever I have had a chance to talk to someone, the issue boils down to EMTALA. The small business owners and their employees have the right to emergency medical care if they - for example - break their leg. Since it is not a proximate issue right in front of them all the time - they tend to feel they have no responsibility to pay for it.

Joe Schmoe the plumber was now asked to fork over $15k/year in real money, for some "abstract" benefits like:
1. ER care under EMTALA (which he got anyway, just did not pay for it earlier)
2. Insurance can't be denied or taken away for "pre-existing-conditions" - again not relevant for majority, but only if you are unfortunate to have the situation.

It's no wonder he will be mad, especially when the right skillfully managed the outrage!!

I'm not sure if there was any alternative though!!

Should Joe Schmoe have continued to enjoy EMTALA-mandated ER care guarantee without paying anything into it? Should John Doe have continued uninsured because he has a pre-existing condition (which is - like - half of the population)?

The political right (that skillfully managed this outrage) wasn't even interested in exploring any alternatives when ACA negotiations were happening. I found it confusing at that time. But the reasons are clear to me now once I have learned to see through what libertarians and the political right nominally profess, and understand that they are allergic to the concept of "personal responsibility" (cite: Rand Paul continuing to infect others while waiting for test results).



PKFFW

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 433
Re: Coronavirus is the End of Trump
« Reply #329 on: March 25, 2020, 03:32:08 PM »
Prior to 2008, there were a lot of people who thought that Bush Jr. would find a way to remain in office, because they viewed him as a dictator. I find it odd that people as smart and level-headed as the MMM crowd would believe the same nonsense about Trump.
I've seen the claim of there being large numbers of people who believed Bush Jr and Obama would stay past two terms a number of times.  However, I'm yet to see any actual evidence that there were in fact any significant number of people who actually did think Bush Jr or Obama would stay in office after the limit of two terms.

Whether a fear that Trump will try to unlawfully remain in office is valid, I think the difference is that neither Bush Jr or Obama ever made remarks regarding trying to and wanting to whereas Trump has repeatedly done so.

Kris

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4965
Re: Coronavirus is the End of Trump
« Reply #330 on: March 25, 2020, 03:44:09 PM »
Prior to 2008, there were a lot of people who thought that Bush Jr. would find a way to remain in office, because they viewed him as a dictator. I find it odd that people as smart and level-headed as the MMM crowd would believe the same nonsense about Trump.
I've seen the claim of there being large numbers of people who believed Bush Jr and Obama would stay past two terms a number of times.  However, I'm yet to see any actual evidence that there were in fact any significant number of people who actually did think Bush Jr or Obama would stay in office after the limit of two terms.

Whether a fear that Trump will try to unlawfully remain in office is valid, I think the difference is that neither Bush Jr or Obama ever made remarks regarding trying to and wanting to whereas Trump has repeatedly done so.

+1.

A few conspiracy theory nutjobs advancing a harebrained idea does not a valid argument make.

Telecaster

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2203
  • Location: Seattle, WA
Re: Coronavirus is the End of Trump
« Reply #331 on: March 25, 2020, 04:28:05 PM »
Whether Trump wins or loses in the Nov election is an important issue, but comparatively it's an insignificant detail next to another related issue that is *far* more important - belief in "trumpism" among trump followers.

The ardent belief in "Trumpism" among a large section of the population is what Trump derives his power from. Even if Trump loses, Trumpism can come back again next time, and will almost certainly be much more virulent at that time because *anyone else* would likely be more competent than Trump - with much greater capacity to cause damage.

So, whether Trump wins or loses in 2020 is not exactly the issue that I lose sleep over. I am much more interested in handicapping the underlying thought process of a Trump supporter.

Trump, I believe, is a unique case.  His policy positions are not unique, e.g. xenophobia, tax cuts for the wealthy, crony capitalism.  etc.  But his methods are certainly unique.  He simply trains his fire on however he perceives his opponent to be without concern that he may need to build consensus.  For example:

https://youtu.be/5D-tKJzkBdc

However, Trump supporters support Trump unconditionally so his former opponents just fall in line.  It is crazy.  I've never seen anything like it.  But that works both ways.  Since he never reaches out, he's had extraordinarily few legislative accomplishments.   His promises have also been absurd and unworkable.  Mexico will pay for the wall.  6% economic growth.  But again, his supporters don't hold him accountable for a stunning string of failed promises. 

But I think Trump is a one-off.  No one else in my memory has made his style of pugilistic politics work.  It is all becomes Trump's base love him more than any other politician, or even any other particular political position.

dandarc

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3827
  • Age: 37
Re: Coronavirus is the End of Trump
« Reply #332 on: March 25, 2020, 04:46:24 PM »
Biden should save that supercut of Trump's bullshit, find as big a tablet as he can. Then at any debates, any time Donald "I didn't know the flu kills people" Trump attacks him, just play that at full volume.

Or just refuse any debates in the interest of public health and play that as a campaign ad incessantly.

bacchi

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4381
Re: Coronavirus is the End of Trump
« Reply #333 on: March 25, 2020, 04:58:03 PM »
Biden should save that supercut of Trump's bullshit, find as big a tablet as he can. Then at any debates, any time Donald "I didn't know the flu kills people" Trump attacks him, just play that at full volume.

Or just refuse any debates in the interest of public health and play that as a campaign ad incessantly.

There are a lot of recent Trump statements that can be used. The "American Resurrection" one may be next, given that it likely coincides with NY's infection peak.


dandarc

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3827
  • Age: 37
Re: Coronavirus is the End of Trump
« Reply #334 on: March 25, 2020, 05:04:37 PM »
At least one NPR station has decided to stop airing the briefings live due to the rampant misinformation. FROM THE FUCKING PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES. Hope this trend spreads real fast.

Freedom of the press - very important right now.

dandarc

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3827
  • Age: 37
Re: Coronavirus is the End of Trump
« Reply #335 on: March 25, 2020, 05:40:18 PM »
At least one NPR station has decided to stop airing the briefings live due to the rampant misinformation. ...

Just read this article, from a twitter thread:
https://www.thedailybeast.com/cnn-and-msnbc-staffers-wary-of-airing-trump-coronavirus-pressers
What could he possibly have to say that is relevant to the nation for more than an hour? This is why we have a free press - one way to hold the government accountable is to refuse them a platform when it the lies are obvious.

MDM

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 9924
Re: Coronavirus is the End of Trump
« Reply #336 on: March 25, 2020, 07:18:15 PM »
The more people see and hear directly from both Trump and Biden, the more people's choice can be an informed one, unfiltered by Fox, MSNBC, etc.

OtherJen

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2545
  • Location: Metro Detroit
Re: Coronavirus is the End of Trump
« Reply #337 on: March 25, 2020, 08:12:29 PM »
At least one NPR station has decided to stop airing the briefings live due to the rampant misinformation. ...

Just read this article, from a twitter thread:
https://www.thedailybeast.com/cnn-and-msnbc-staffers-wary-of-airing-trump-coronavirus-pressers
What could he possibly have to say that is relevant to the nation for more than an hour? This is why we have a free press - one way to hold the government accountable is to refuse them a platform when it the lies are obvious.

Its such a waste of time and energy for all of those people on stage with him who are actually trying to do their jobs (Fauci, Birx, Pence). Maybe its best if Trump stays on the golf course at Mar-a-lago. Can we find some busy work for him so that the grownups can do their jobs?

Just Joe

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3594
Re: Coronavirus is the End of Trump
« Reply #338 on: March 25, 2020, 08:47:32 PM »

Trump supporters are going to be even less likely to trust the media, because the media industry abandoned any illusion of objectivity in 2016.


Lol

Or...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/17/trump-learns-pitfalls-his-pinocchio-presidency/

"An alarming new poll from NPR, PBS NewsHour and Marist shows that the number of Republicans who believe the virus is a real threat has actually fallen over the past month, from 72 percent in February to just 40 percent now. A majority of Republicans now say the threat has been blown out of proportion more than double the 23 percent who said so last month."

So... survival of the fittest? There are people who listen to Trump and FoxNews and then there are those people who listen to the scientists and medical experts...

DW and I try to make the best judgement for our family we can based on real information from real experts.
« Last Edit: March 25, 2020, 09:00:50 PM by Just Joe »

gmdv

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 104
  • Hermit Wannabe
Re: Coronavirus is the End of Trump
« Reply #339 on: March 25, 2020, 10:31:58 PM »



Trump supporters are going to be even less likely to trust the media, because the media industry abandoned any illusion of objectivity in 2016.


Lol

Or...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/17/trump-learns-pitfalls-his-pinocchio-presidency/

"An alarming new poll from NPR, PBS NewsHour and Marist shows that the number of Republicans who believe the virus is a real threat has actually fallen over the past month, from 72 percent in February to just 40 percent now. A majority of Republicans now say the threat has been blown out of proportion more than double the 23 percent who said so last month."

So... survival of the fittest? There are people who listen to Trump and FoxNews and then there are those people who listen to the scientists and medical experts...

DW and I try to make the best judgement for our family we can based on real information from real experts.

I have no problem if most Republicans listen to their leader and willingly go through this trial of survival of the fittest.  By the time it's over and done with,  the US may even get to have a viable 3rd party.


frugalnacho

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3797
  • Age: 37
  • Location: Madison Heights, Michigan
Re: Coronavirus is the End of Trump
« Reply #341 on: March 26, 2020, 09:09:52 AM »
I haven't read the entire thread, and I'm hesitant to get into a political thread, but LOL if you think incompetence and buffoonery is going to be trump's downfall.  He had all these characteristics before the crisis, and people still elected him.  This will not be his downfall.  Even as he spouts misinformation and flat out lies every day, and the number of infections increases, and the hospitals become overloaded and the deaths pile up at an alarming rate...people will still love Trump! People in my neighborhood are putting out huge "Trump 2020!" flags in front of their houses. 

I'm sure many people here are thinking that everyone else will act logically and rationally, because they think they do so themselves.  But that's not how people work.  Some segment of the population will not take this pandemic seriously no matter what.  Look at Italy: infections soaring, people dieing, mandatory lock down, and people still whooping it up in the streets like nothing is going on to the point they are having a difficult time getting people to comply with social distancing.

Trump may actually emerge from this crisis more popular than he was and he may very well be reelected. Regardless of how it turns out or how incompetently you think he botched the response. 


YttriumNitrate

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 886
  • Location: Northwest Indiana
Re: Coronavirus is the End of Trump
« Reply #342 on: March 26, 2020, 09:24:38 AM »
https://www.mediaite.com/news/twitter-deletes-post-from-the-federalist-proposing-chickenpox-parties-to-deliberately-spread-coronavirus/
https://twitter.com/JesseKellyDC/status/1242440826317344768These people are insane.

From a purely selfish standpoint, Chicken pox style parties to get the disease early are a pretty good idea. In the chart below, there are three general periods when you will get the disease: 1) the period before resources are overwhelmed, 2) the period when resources are overwhelmed, and 3) after the period after resources are overwhelmed. Obviously, the third period is optimal since treatments will improve over time, but getting it in the first period is preferable to the second period. With that in mind, chicken pox style parties make sense at least for a little bit longer (Probably not a good idea after the first week in April).  Of course, from a societal perspective chicken pox parties are terrible, but on an individual level they make sense.


sui generis

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1338
Re: Coronavirus is the End of Trump
« Reply #343 on: March 26, 2020, 09:26:41 AM »

Trump may actually emerge from this crisis more popular than he was and he may very well be reelected. Regardless of how it turns out or how incompetently you think he botched the response.

I think this is very possible, maybe even likely.  After all, his approval is going up currently. 

However, as I mentioned upthread, people were pissed at Bush's handling of Katrina, and he was also considered incompetent and a buffoon by many (oh, how I wish we could go back to just that level of incompetence and buffoonery!).  So what's the difference here?  Why are people rallying to Trump during this disaster when they rallied away from Bush?

Brother Esau

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 647
Re: Coronavirus is the End of Trump
« Reply #344 on: March 26, 2020, 09:42:31 AM »

Trump may actually emerge from this crisis more popular than he was and he may very well be reelected. Regardless of how it turns out or how incompetently you think he botched the response.

I think this is very possible, maybe even likely.  After all, his approval is going up currently. 

However, as I mentioned upthread, people were pissed at Bush's handling of Katrina, and he was also considered incompetent and a buffoon by many (oh, how I wish we could go back to just that level of incompetence and buffoonery!).  So what's the difference here?  Why are people rallying to Trump during this disaster when they rallied away from Bush?

I think the U.S. is handling this situation well. Kinda like "hold my beer and watch this". The markets sure believe that. Just about anyone in the white house would gain support.

AnnaGrowsAMustache

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1422
Re: Coronavirus is the End of Trump
« Reply #345 on: March 26, 2020, 09:46:29 AM »

Trump may actually emerge from this crisis more popular than he was and he may very well be reelected. Regardless of how it turns out or how incompetently you think he botched the response.

I think this is very possible, maybe even likely.  After all, his approval is going up currently. 

However, as I mentioned upthread, people were pissed at Bush's handling of Katrina, and he was also considered incompetent and a buffoon by many (oh, how I wish we could go back to just that level of incompetence and buffoonery!).  So what's the difference here?  Why are people rallying to Trump during this disaster when they rallied away from Bush?

I think the U.S. is handling this situation well. Kinda like "hold my beer and watch this". The markets sure believe that. Just about anyone in the white house would gain support.

Wait, you think the USA is handling the corona virus situation well???

Brother Esau

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 647
Re: Coronavirus is the End of Trump
« Reply #346 on: March 26, 2020, 09:54:36 AM »

Trump may actually emerge from this crisis more popular than he was and he may very well be reelected. Regardless of how it turns out or how incompetently you think he botched the response.

I think this is very possible, maybe even likely.  After all, his approval is going up currently. 

However, as I mentioned upthread, people were pissed at Bush's handling of Katrina, and he was also considered incompetent and a buffoon by many (oh, how I wish we could go back to just that level of incompetence and buffoonery!).  So what's the difference here?  Why are people rallying to Trump during this disaster when they rallied away from Bush?

I think the U.S. is handling this situation well. Kinda like "hold my beer and watch this". The markets sure believe that. Just about anyone in the white house would gain support.

Wait, you think the USA is handling the corona virus situation well???

Absolutely. As well or better than could be expected. Notice I didn't say Trump is handling it well.

AnnaGrowsAMustache

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1422
Re: Coronavirus is the End of Trump
« Reply #347 on: March 26, 2020, 10:02:24 AM »

Trump may actually emerge from this crisis more popular than he was and he may very well be reelected. Regardless of how it turns out or how incompetently you think he botched the response.

I think this is very possible, maybe even likely.  After all, his approval is going up currently. 

However, as I mentioned upthread, people were pissed at Bush's handling of Katrina, and he was also considered incompetent and a buffoon by many (oh, how I wish we could go back to just that level of incompetence and buffoonery!).  So what's the difference here?  Why are people rallying to Trump during this disaster when they rallied away from Bush?

I think the U.S. is handling this situation well. Kinda like "hold my beer and watch this". The markets sure believe that. Just about anyone in the white house would gain support.

Wait, you think the USA is handling the corona virus situation well???

Absolutely. As well or better than could be expected. Notice I didn't say Trump is handling it well.

The USA isn't testing in anywhere the numbers it needs to be, it hasn't locked down early enough or sufficiently, it's just now starting to churn out vital PPE, and the politicians are arguing over everything from stimulus packages to future measures. It's a shit show calamity unfolding that will make Italy and Spain look like a summer holiday. The USA did not recognise what was happening at the beginning, and I'm not convinced it has any real idea now. And een if it did, there's no co-ordinated response. I feel very, very sorry for your country and what is about to happen there.

Brother Esau

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 647
Re: Coronavirus is the End of Trump
« Reply #348 on: March 26, 2020, 10:08:14 AM »

Trump may actually emerge from this crisis more popular than he was and he may very well be reelected. Regardless of how it turns out or how incompetently you think he botched the response.

I think this is very possible, maybe even likely.  After all, his approval is going up currently. 

However, as I mentioned upthread, people were pissed at Bush's handling of Katrina, and he was also considered incompetent and a buffoon by many (oh, how I wish we could go back to just that level of incompetence and buffoonery!).  So what's the difference here?  Why are people rallying to Trump during this disaster when they rallied away from Bush?

I think the U.S. is handling this situation well. Kinda like "hold my beer and watch this". The markets sure believe that. Just about anyone in the white house would gain support.

Wait, you think the USA is handling the corona virus situation well???

Absolutely. As well or better than could be expected. Notice I didn't say Trump is handling it well.

The USA isn't testing in anywhere the numbers it needs to be, it hasn't locked down early enough or sufficiently, it's just now starting to churn out vital PPE, and the politicians are arguing over everything from stimulus packages to future measures. It's a shit show calamity unfolding that will make Italy and Spain look like a summer holiday. The USA did not recognise what was happening at the beginning, and I'm not convinced it has any real idea now. And een if it did, there's no co-ordinated response. I feel very, very sorry for your country and what is about to happen there.

1.5% death rate is second lowest on the planet (South Korea is 1.3%). Stock Markets up 15% in 3 days. Thank god I live in this country and not Europe, China, etc.

AnnaGrowsAMustache

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1422
Re: Coronavirus is the End of Trump
« Reply #349 on: March 26, 2020, 10:14:06 AM »

Trump may actually emerge from this crisis more popular than he was and he may very well be reelected. Regardless of how it turns out or how incompetently you think he botched the response.

I think this is very possible, maybe even likely.  After all, his approval is going up currently. 

However, as I mentioned upthread, people were pissed at Bush's handling of Katrina, and he was also considered incompetent and a buffoon by many (oh, how I wish we could go back to just that level of incompetence and buffoonery!).  So what's the difference here?  Why are people rallying to Trump during this disaster when they rallied away from Bush?

I think the U.S. is handling this situation well. Kinda like "hold my beer and watch this". The markets sure believe that. Just about anyone in the white house would gain support.

Wait, you think the USA is handling the corona virus situation well???

Absolutely. As well or better than could be expected. Notice I didn't say Trump is handling it well.

The USA isn't testing in anywhere the numbers it needs to be, it hasn't locked down early enough or sufficiently, it's just now starting to churn out vital PPE, and the politicians are arguing over everything from stimulus packages to future measures. It's a shit show calamity unfolding that will make Italy and Spain look like a summer holiday. The USA did not recognise what was happening at the beginning, and I'm not convinced it has any real idea now. And een if it did, there's no co-ordinated response. I feel very, very sorry for your country and what is about to happen there.

1.5% death rate is second lowest on the planet (South Korea is 1.3%). Stock Markets up 15% in 3 days. Thank god I live in this country and not Europe, China, etc.

You have a low death rate because your timeline is behind other countries. Wait. Preferably in self isolation.

I'm in NZ. Our death rate is currently 0%. The entire country is in full lock down for four weeks. Because our government understands how epidemics work AND is prepared to do something about it.