The S&P500 is a pretty good deal right now!
Oil. Brent, WTI or whatever, don't care. 20% drop? Near millenium low?
Other people buy tons of toilet paper. I will buy tons of oil papers.
YES. I did this 3-4 years ago when oil was $37-ish a barrel. Cashed out a few weeks later with a nice +30% return.
I "only" got out 24% after a few months :D
Do you know something everybody else doesn't? Because there appears to be a huge oil glut at the moment, with OPEC and non-OPEC countries amping up supplies in order to keep revenue streams going and put the squeeze on American producers. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4330721-why-russia-killed-opec-deal (Apologies if I missed a piece of sarcasm.)
What if the all the remaining demand for oil could already be satisfied by current reserves + wells?
The demand can be matched with the existing wells since decades.
That is why OPEC etc. was founded. To regulate the flow of oil and ensure high prices. There is a reason it's called the oil cartell ;)
The oil price is political. And those politicians who have most of the oil need higher prices. (Russia is calculating with $40, the Souds with I think $60)
What is done now is a second attempt to kick out the US fracking oil producers. The first strike (the one mentioned above) was supposed to bankrupt the fracking industry, but they were more robust (read: produced cheaper) then thought.
But they have been on short money for all the time. And the easiest to reach fracking sites have already closed down, so it is unlikely the production price will ever go down (and the few enough regulations were already scrapped by Trump, not much to gain on this side, too).
The oil price will be going up, the question is only how far and how long it takes.
(I am actually 50/50 if it will go down more when the contracts run out on 1st of April.)
I am betting that it is a better "investment" than stocks at the moment. Of course you don't have to follow. All predictions are hard, especially those about the future.
