Author Topic: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President  (Read 114835 times)

blue_green_sparks

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #450 on: June 15, 2022, 08:24:30 AM »
I recall as a young investor people would say things like "...and well since your investment is backed by the federal government, it is safe... unless the free world ceases to exist, of course". There would be a wink, a smile and a nod as if that was unthinkable. A few decades later and it does not seem all that unlikely. I do wonder there would have been someone else walking us towards the nation's end, had it not been Trump.

LaineyAZ

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #451 on: June 15, 2022, 09:14:39 AM »
Meanwhile here in AZ there are 2 Republican candidates for governor who are openly bragging that they are not watching the January 6th hearings.

Also Andy Biggs, one of our Republican representatives who has been subpoenaed to testify, has so far refused to comply and is also not watching the proceedings, calling them "a dog and pony show." 
How do you defy a Congressional subpoena and not get any penalty for that??

BC_Goldman

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #452 on: June 15, 2022, 09:44:18 AM »
Apparently, if you're not an average person, pretty much nothing. Reminded me of a Stuff You Should Know episode about supoenas. Defying subpoenas goes almost all the way back to the beginning of the US.

https://chtbl.com/track/5899E/podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/a91018a4-ea4f-4130-bf55-ae270180c327/059ab4df-5808-4ead-bac6-ae280043d006/audio.mp3

nereo

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #453 on: June 15, 2022, 10:20:04 AM »
I'll give Trump credit. He may go down in history as one of the greatest con men of our era. He has spent his life duping folks out of money and yet, he managed to run a con against the Republican party duping them out of millions for a non existent fraud fund. It's the Nigerian Prince scam on steroids.

It's also rather eye opening knowing just how poorly he views his base of supporters.

Spent the day working alongside a big Trump supporter earlier this week. He’sa very blue collar job, makes decent (though not six-figure) money, is involved with his church and lives in a very rural area. He likes to drink and is unfailingly polite to whoever he meets.
At one point in the day he said he supports Trump because “he’s like me”. For the life of me I can’t see any similarities besides both being white men. I asked about Biden and he snorted and said “Biden has no concept of what his life is like”.

I keep replaying that in my head but have trouble making sense of it. He supports Trump because he feels the brash New Yorker born into wealth and a product of elite boarding schools and is just like him, but Biden is unrelatable. I asked him about Biden being Catholic (he is too) and he said Biden wasn’t a “true” catholic. But he seemed bothered by Trumps non -religious background.

Kris

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #454 on: June 15, 2022, 10:21:44 AM »
I'll give Trump credit. He may go down in history as one of the greatest con men of our era. He has spent his life duping folks out of money and yet, he managed to run a con against the Republican party duping them out of millions for a non existent fraud fund. It's the Nigerian Prince scam on steroids.

It's also rather eye opening knowing just how poorly he views his base of supporters.

Spent the day working alongside a big Trump supporter earlier this week. He’sa very blue collar job, makes decent (though not six-figure) money, is involved with his church and lives in a very rural area. He likes to drink and is unfailingly polite to whoever he meets.
At one point in the day he said he supports Trump because “he’s like me”. For the life of me I can’t see any similarities besides both being white men. I asked about Biden and he snorted and said “Biden has no concept of what his life is like”.

I keep replaying that in my head but have trouble making sense of it. He supports Trump because he feels the brash New Yorker born into wealth and a product of elite boarding schools and is just like him, but Biden is unrelatable. I asked him about Biden being Catholic (he is too) and he said Biden wasn’t a “true” catholic. But he seemed bothered by Trumps non -religious background.

It's amazing, isn't it? By every single marker, Biden is much more "like him" except for... probably some stuff that your Trump supporter wouldn't be very comfortable saying to you out loud.

talltexan

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #455 on: June 15, 2022, 10:27:43 AM »
Those of us who are horrified by Trump fail to appreciate Trump's humor in person. He describes narratives that align with what people already believe. He is willing to say shocking things, so why could he be hiding anything. The incoherence actually is an asset, as it produces--by sheer probability--the truth his supporters are expecting to hear at some point.

partgypsy

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #456 on: June 15, 2022, 12:25:15 PM »
After I presented evidence with links a few times, I hoped others would also provide links and information to answer questions.  But that's not happening.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/09/politics/jan-6-hearing-cheney-trump-overturn-election-plan/index.html

A great deal has been presented over the previous nine pages, as well as the issuing of criminal indictments, which you are free to read and comment on.

Mostly I see you arguing semantics and then shifting the subject when a clear case has been made (i.e. why January 6th can correctly described an “attempted coup”).
I guess I want to simulate a court case.  The semantic arguments are a cover for developing arguments with evidence.  What I mostly see here, and almost certainly will see earlier, are statements that extrapolate from data to what people believe.  In a court case, witness must have personal knowledge and only experts share their opinions.  As might be expected, most forums don't adhere to that high standard.

For example, if former President Donald Trump was prosecuted for conspiring to start a riot, one approach would try to establish intent (like when another poster used the word "deliberately"), and another would simply show criminal negligence.  Trump ignored legal experts and advisors, and instead agreed with an inebriated
Rudy Giuliani.  That's one data point where intent isn't established.  Maybe it shows unreasonable negligence, and I don't know if that becomes a criminal charge.

What kind of court case - civil or criminal?  Those are two entirely different thing, and there’s a monumental difference in the likelihood that we’ll see one over the other.

You don’t really have to imagine - there are both ongoing civil and criminal cases with Trump listed as a defendant. Some others have been settled or dropped. There’s also the ongoing congressional hearings, which are doing a damn good job of laying out time-lines and testimony about specific events.

As for the hypothetical you mention above, a key takeaway of the Jan 6th congressional hearings thus far have been that it’s far more than a single data point or one instance of “unreasonable negligence” (as you put it).  There was at least three meetings with the AG over a month long period where Barr told Trump he cannot legally defend his claims.  His court filings were rejected by over a dozen courts before Jan 6th, most for being completely without merit. He had similar warnings by his chief of staff, senior advisors and a number of others.
yes. And in fact even before the election occurred he insinuated he would only respect the election results if they fell in his favor. I would suggest the installation of dejoy and all that happened with the USPS were also deliberate actions to subvert fair and free elections. Trump both within the White house, and he passed, and would have implemented ways to easily hire and fire Federal players essentially at will. There are numerous testimony from people who worked for 45, being asked if they were loyal to him. Not whether they would uphold the constitution, or are loyal to the US. Would place loyalty to him, over their legal sworn oaths. What his intent was, is clear. Even if his jokes of "president for life,has a nice ring to it" was stated as a joke, it shows his mental state.
The election meddling case is the strongest, although I don't know the penalty.  He was recorded asking an election official to find more votes, and the count he gave was the exact count he needed to win.

I'm not a lawyer.  I mostly know the levels of homicide, which go from planned in advance to negligence that should have been forseen.  What's why I used "criminal negligence".  From the charges I've seen, "seditious conspiracy" seems likely if a court can tie the actions of Oathkeepers to the President's people.

I'm very curious about former President Trump's comments about election fraud before the 2020 and even 2016 elections.  Even better if there's an article or youtube video (from a reputable source) that groups those comments together.  If you can show he disputed the election before it even happened, that seems like strong evidence of intent, to me.
here is a selected timeline. As early as April 2020 making election fraud comments. He repeated the claim the election was falsely stolen many many times, it was a continuing refrain.i know myself I felt the spectre something really bad was going to happen. Georgia election official on dec 1 pleaded "stop inspiring people to potential violence...someone is going to get killed". https://www.npr.org/2021/02/08/965342252/timeline-what-trump-told-supporters-for-months-before-they-attacked
« Last Edit: June 15, 2022, 12:36:38 PM by partgypsy »

partgypsy

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #457 on: June 15, 2022, 12:43:50 PM »
The other thing that is inexcusable, is that he left numerous elected officials, including next in line VP pence, and undermanned capitol police high and dry for 2 critical hours while he did nothing. Less than nothing. Trump didn't return calls, increase security, call for backup (think about that protest that was broken up with tear gas for a Bible photo app), or even make a statement. He wanted it to play out even if or as people died. That alone is proof of his intent.  https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/interactive/2021/what-happened-trump-jan-6-insurrection/
« Last Edit: June 15, 2022, 12:49:56 PM by partgypsy »

Travis

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #458 on: June 15, 2022, 06:32:04 PM »

How do you defy a Congressional subpoena and not get any penalty for that??

Because Congress isn't an actual courtroom, Congresspeople aren't prosecutors, and half the time the panel members are just grandstanding for the cameras. Take Trump's impeachments. Despite presenting what in a normal courtroom would be enough evidence to seriously consider a conviction, half the room didn't care. Now apply that to a hearing where the same politicians who didn't care about the impeachment didn't even show up.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #459 on: June 16, 2022, 01:16:04 PM »
partgypsy - Appreciate the link.  I forgot about that moment where former President Trump was asked if he wanted to denounce white nationalists, and Trump replied for the Proud Boys to "stand back and stand by".

Sandi_k

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #460 on: June 16, 2022, 04:07:11 PM »
And now we have testimony that TFG was told two days before Jan. 6th that his Pence scenario was illegal. By his attorney. In front of witnesses.

No way he can claim he didn't know.

bacchi

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #461 on: June 16, 2022, 04:50:39 PM »
And now we have testimony that TFG was told two days before Jan. 6th that his Pence scenario was illegal. By his attorney. In front of witnesses.

No way he can claim he didn't know.

I overestimated his narcissism and assumed that he was a true believer in his own bullshit.

It looks like Eastman will be the person who takes the majority of the blame. Miller and the other sycophants will skate.

nereo

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #462 on: June 17, 2022, 03:56:24 AM »
So much to process from the details being released by the Jan 6th congressional committee.  But let’s start with Rudy Giuliani. He may be in the worst legal peril, though time will tell whether he’ll be prosecuted.  As the president’s personal attorney he urged Trump repeatedly to take illegal actions in front of witnesses multiple times. He was rebuffed by none other than AG Barr, but still he persisted.

His actions largely parallel Trump’s, though Giuliani was more aggressive and as a lawyer (since disbarred) he can’t fall back on the “I didn’t fully understand the laws” that gives Trump a [weak] escape valve.  Whereas Trump can say “I was following the advice given by some of my advisors” (namely Rudy Giuliani) - Giuliani led the charge, and can’t point to being mislead by anyone really.

Eastman seems equally culpable, perhaps more-so.  He’s publicly acknolwedged that he knew the plot to block certification was not legal, but he aggressively pushed forward anyway.  He pushed to be granted a pardon. And he was foolish enough to write down these things in emails which he sent. 

GuitarStv

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #463 on: June 17, 2022, 07:13:00 AM »
I've been getting the impression that Giuliani is going down for this so that Trump can walk scott-free.

former player

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #464 on: June 17, 2022, 07:25:10 AM »
I've been getting the impression that Giuliani is going down for this so that Trump can walk scott-free.
Guiliani and Eastman only had the access they did to Pence and his people because they were acting for Trump - if they hadn't been they wouldn't even have made it into the White House/Executive Building to make their case.

LaineyAZ

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #465 on: June 17, 2022, 07:56:54 AM »
And now a CNN poll is showing that Trump has actually become more popular since the Jan. 6th attack and that he would beat Biden if the election were held today.

WTF

Kris

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #466 on: June 17, 2022, 08:24:50 AM »
And now a CNN poll is showing that Trump has actually become more popular since the Jan. 6th attack and that he would beat Biden if the election were held today.

WTF

Because hardly anyone is watching. More people are seeing the spin the algorithms choose to show them.

talltexan

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #467 on: June 17, 2022, 08:47:37 AM »
And now a CNN poll is showing that Trump has actually become more popular since the Jan. 6th attack and that he would beat Biden if the election were held today.

WTF

I think DeSantis has to be seeing these polls and liking his own trajectory. The polls have more to do with people perceiving Biden as failing than with Trump being desirable.

But, yeah, turns out that voters have the memory of golden retrievers.

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #468 on: June 17, 2022, 10:41:32 AM »
And now a CNN poll is showing that Trump has actually become more popular since the Jan. 6th attack and that he would beat Biden if the election were held today.

WTF

I think DeSantis has to be seeing these polls and liking his own trajectory. The polls have more to do with people perceiving Biden as failing than with Trump being desirable.

But, yeah, turns out that voters have the memory of golden retrievers.

Quote
According to the U.S. Department of Education, 54% of adults in the United States have prose literacy below the 6th-grade level.
Wikipedia

This does not bode well for the concept of the well-informed voter.

bacchi

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #469 on: June 17, 2022, 10:55:08 AM »
And now a CNN poll is showing that Trump has actually become more popular since the Jan. 6th attack and that he would beat Biden if the election were held today.

WTF

I think DeSantis has to be seeing these polls and liking his own trajectory. The polls have more to do with people perceiving Biden as failing than with Trump being desirable.

But, yeah, turns out that voters have the memory of golden retrievers.

Quote
According to the U.S. Department of Education, 54% of adults in the United States have prose literacy below the 6th-grade level.
Wikipedia

This does not bode well for the concept of the well-informed voter.

Rando-youtube "news" for the win!

Quote from: wiki
prose literacy: the knowledge and skills needed to search, comprehend, and use continuous texts. Examples include editorials, news stories, brochures, and instructional materials.

nereo

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #470 on: June 17, 2022, 11:41:08 AM »
And now a CNN poll is showing that Trump has actually become more popular since the Jan. 6th attack and that he would beat Biden if the election were held today.

WTF

Polling about a hypothetical election held 28+ months away is as predictive as predicting gas prices that far in advance.

Take a look at where the previous six presidents were two and a half years before re-election. Both the Bushes had solid approval - one was reelected, the other wasn't. Bush Sr actually had his highest ratings a year later, but it wasn't enough. Reagan had the second lowest approval of recent presidents at this point in his presidency but was re-elected in a landslide. Trump's appeared on the upswing but he hit a ceiling - and a floor - and lost.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #471 on: June 17, 2022, 12:08:40 PM »
And now a CNN poll is showing that Trump has actually become more popular since the Jan. 6th attack and that he would beat Biden if the election were held today.

WTF

Because hardly anyone is watching. More people are seeing the spin the algorithms choose to show them.
"It's the economy, stupid" (attributed to former President Bill Clinton's campaign in 1992)

Democrats lost their historic 2020 advantage over the course of 2021.  For most of 2021, Fed Chair Powell called 6% inflation "transitory".  We now have CPI-U inflation over 8% for the past 3 months and very high gas prices, so the ecnomy isn't looking any better to voters.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/388781/political-party-preferences-shifted-greatly-during-2021.aspx

Kris

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #472 on: June 17, 2022, 12:23:39 PM »
And now a CNN poll is showing that Trump has actually become more popular since the Jan. 6th attack and that he would beat Biden if the election were held today.

WTF

Because hardly anyone is watching. More people are seeing the spin the algorithms choose to show them.
"It's the economy, stupid" (attributed to former President Bill Clinton's campaign in 1992)

Democrats lost their historic 2020 advantage over the course of 2021.  For most of 2021, Fed Chair Powell called 6% inflation "transitory".  We now have CPI-U inflation over 8% for the past 3 months and very high gas prices, so the ecnomy isn't looking any better to voters.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/388781/political-party-preferences-shifted-greatly-during-2021.aspx

Right. And of course, because many of those voters are not inclined toward complex thinking, they blame Biden for most of this stuff. Because the media they are shown tell them to.

nereo

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #473 on: June 17, 2022, 12:40:11 PM »
And now a CNN poll is showing that Trump has actually become more popular since the Jan. 6th attack and that he would beat Biden if the election were held today.

WTF

Because hardly anyone is watching. More people are seeing the spin the algorithms choose to show them.
"It's the economy, stupid" (attributed to former President Bill Clinton's campaign in 1992)

Democrats lost their historic 2020 advantage over the course of 2021.  For most of 2021, Fed Chair Powell called 6% inflation "transitory".  We now have CPI-U inflation over 8% for the past 3 months and very high gas prices, so the ecnomy isn't looking any better to voters.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/388781/political-party-preferences-shifted-greatly-during-2021.aspx

Right. And of course, because many of those voters are not inclined toward complex thinking, they blame Biden for most of this stuff. Because the media they are shown tell them to.

If anything, what this tells me is how hard it is to predict where the economy will be 26 months from now, and how voters will feel about it.  That and of course we are currently talking about two guys who will be 78 and 81 years old, one of which will be judged on every crisis and economic condition regardless of how much he can do, and the other must navigate a daunting docket of both criminal and civil lawsuits.

bacchi

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #474 on: June 17, 2022, 12:43:01 PM »
and the other must navigate a daunting docket of both criminal and civil lawsuits.

And fend off his near clone, DeSantis.


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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #475 on: June 17, 2022, 12:45:22 PM »
I personally wish that there was an upper cap on the age of presidential candidates. That we have two geriatrics duking it out for the highest office in the land is a bit sad. Both of them with questions about their remaining cognitive abilities and potentially serious health issues on the near horizon. If 35 is the minimum age to run...maybe 62 or 65 should be the maximum age

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #476 on: June 17, 2022, 01:43:16 PM »
And now a CNN poll is showing that Trump has actually become more popular since the Jan. 6th attack and that he would beat Biden if the election were held today.

WTF

Because hardly anyone is watching. More people are seeing the spin the algorithms choose to show them.
"It's the economy, stupid" (attributed to former President Bill Clinton's campaign in 1992)

Democrats lost their historic 2020 advantage over the course of 2021.  For most of 2021, Fed Chair Powell called 6% inflation "transitory".  We now have CPI-U inflation over 8% for the past 3 months and very high gas prices, so the ecnomy isn't looking any better to voters.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/388781/political-party-preferences-shifted-greatly-during-2021.aspx
Right. And of course, because many of those voters are not inclined toward complex thinking, they blame Biden for most of this stuff. Because the media they are shown tell them to.
Agreed, although I think Americans are also alarmed whenever they buy more gas.  As that costs more, other expenses need to be squeezed.

I'd ask news media: "Are you blaming President Biden for worldwide inflation?"

And they'll probably bring up Russia invading Ukraine, "Wasn't inflation 7% in December 2021, months before Russia invaded?"

Or if I was feeling more generous, "Why did Fed Chair Jerome Powell say inflation was transitory for most of 2021, if inflation only started at the end of Feb in 2022?"

GuitarStv

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #477 on: June 17, 2022, 02:30:20 PM »
And now a CNN poll is showing that Trump has actually become more popular since the Jan. 6th attack and that he would beat Biden if the election were held today.

WTF

Because hardly anyone is watching. More people are seeing the spin the algorithms choose to show them.
"It's the economy, stupid" (attributed to former President Bill Clinton's campaign in 1992)

Democrats lost their historic 2020 advantage over the course of 2021.  For most of 2021, Fed Chair Powell called 6% inflation "transitory".  We now have CPI-U inflation over 8% for the past 3 months and very high gas prices, so the ecnomy isn't looking any better to voters.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/388781/political-party-preferences-shifted-greatly-during-2021.aspx
Right. And of course, because many of those voters are not inclined toward complex thinking, they blame Biden for most of this stuff. Because the media they are shown tell them to.
Agreed, although I think Americans are also alarmed whenever they buy more gas.  As that costs more, other expenses need to be squeezed.

I'd ask news media: "Are you blaming President Biden for worldwide inflation?"

And they'll probably bring up Russia invading Ukraine, "Wasn't inflation 7% in December 2021, months before Russia invaded?"

Or if I was feeling more generous, "Why did Fed Chair Jerome Powell say inflation was transitory for most of 2021, if inflation only started at the end of Feb in 2022?"

Interest rates have been held insanely low since 2008, and we're not even half-way back to normal yet.  That might have had an impact on inflation.

Just Joe

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #478 on: June 17, 2022, 04:22:43 PM »
I've been getting the impression that Giuliani is going down for this so that Trump can walk scott-free.

What a great way to spend your last years... In jail.

Kris

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #479 on: June 17, 2022, 04:46:32 PM »
I've been getting the impression that Giuliani is going down for this so that Trump can walk scott-free.

What a great way to spend your last years... In jail.

How will he get his hair dye?

Just Joe

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #480 on: June 17, 2022, 05:10:00 PM »
I'm sure there is a jailhouse equivalent made from some ordinary substance like coffee grounds. Just don't wash your hair. Ever. And you owe "Bob" your allegiance forever... Only Bob knows how to make it.

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #481 on: June 17, 2022, 06:30:38 PM »
And now a CNN poll is showing that Trump has actually become more popular since the Jan. 6th attack and that he would beat Biden if the election were held today.

WTF

Because hardly anyone is watching. More people are seeing the spin the algorithms choose to show them.
"It's the economy, stupid" (attributed to former President Bill Clinton's campaign in 1992)

Democrats lost their historic 2020 advantage over the course of 2021.  For most of 2021, Fed Chair Powell called 6% inflation "transitory".  We now have CPI-U inflation over 8% for the past 3 months and very high gas prices, so the ecnomy isn't looking any better to voters.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/388781/political-party-preferences-shifted-greatly-during-2021.aspx
Right. And of course, because many of those voters are not inclined toward complex thinking, they blame Biden for most of this stuff. Because the media they are shown tell them to.
Agreed, although I think Americans are also alarmed whenever they buy more gas.  As that costs more, other expenses need to be squeezed.

I'd ask news media: "Are you blaming President Biden for worldwide inflation?"

And they'll probably bring up Russia invading Ukraine, "Wasn't inflation 7% in December 2021, months before Russia invaded?"

Or if I was feeling more generous, "Why did Fed Chair Jerome Powell say inflation was transitory for most of 2021, if inflation only started at the end of Feb in 2022?"

It would be a mistake to assume that inflation prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine somehow means that the current occupation isn’t a significant factor in current inflation.

I could certainly see how inflation - which Powell and Yalen predicted as transitory a year ago - would indeed have started dropping had the whole Ukraine mess not triggered yet more supply chain shortages, pushed oil prices up further and increased overall volatility.

LaineyAZ

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #482 on: June 18, 2022, 07:02:32 AM »
And now a CNN poll is showing that Trump has actually become more popular since the Jan. 6th attack and that he would beat Biden if the election were held today.

WTF

Polling about a hypothetical election held 28+ months away is as predictive as predicting gas prices that far in advance.

Take a look at where the previous six presidents were two and a half years before re-election. Both the Bushes had solid approval - one was reelected, the other wasn't. Bush Sr actually had his highest ratings a year later, but it wasn't enough. Reagan had the second lowest approval of recent presidents at this point in his presidency but was re-elected in a landslide. Trump's appeared on the upswing but he hit a ceiling - and a floor - and lost.

I agree it's pretty early.  What's discouraging is that half of voters think the answer is to bring back Trump.  It's like seeing Nixon impeached and resign in disgrace in the 1970s and then voters thinking later, you know, we should bring that guy back as our leader.  Ugh.

and I also agree that it's time for Biden to step aside.  Many years ago I attended a talk by former Texas governor Ann Richards.   A question came from the audience asking if she'd consider running for political office again.  Her answer was, "You have to know when it's your time."  I admired her for that.

I think part of the fault lies with the congressional rules giving powers to congress members strictly by seniority -that's swaying voters in their state to re-elect the same politicians (looking at you Feinstein, et al.) and reap the benefits of that extra power vs. electing a new politician who gets bumped down on the priority list for committee assignments, etc. 

Thank you for your service, Joe B.  Now let the next generation have their chance.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #483 on: June 18, 2022, 12:26:09 PM »
And now a CNN poll is showing that Trump has actually become more popular since the Jan. 6th attack and that he would beat Biden if the election were held today.

WTF

Because hardly anyone is watching. More people are seeing the spin the algorithms choose to show them.
"It's the economy, stupid" (attributed to former President Bill Clinton's campaign in 1992)

Democrats lost their historic 2020 advantage over the course of 2021.  For most of 2021, Fed Chair Powell called 6% inflation "transitory".  We now have CPI-U inflation over 8% for the past 3 months and very high gas prices, so the ecnomy isn't looking any better to voters.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/388781/political-party-preferences-shifted-greatly-during-2021.aspx
Right. And of course, because many of those voters are not inclined toward complex thinking, they blame Biden for most of this stuff. Because the media they are shown tell them to.
Agreed, although I think Americans are also alarmed whenever they buy more gas.  As that costs more, other expenses need to be squeezed.

I'd ask news media: "Are you blaming President Biden for worldwide inflation?"

And they'll probably bring up Russia invading Ukraine, "Wasn't inflation 7% in December 2021, months before Russia invaded?"

Or if I was feeling more generous, "Why did Fed Chair Jerome Powell say inflation was transitory for most of 2021, if inflation only started at the end of Feb in 2022?"

It would be a mistake to assume that inflation prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine somehow means that the current occupation isn’t a significant factor in current inflation.

I could certainly see how inflation - which Powell and Yalen predicted as transitory a year ago - would indeed have started dropping had the whole Ukraine mess not triggered yet more supply chain shortages, pushed oil prices up further and increased overall volatility.
Russia invading Ukraine was a factor in food & energy inflation, but not the only factor.  President Biden claimed it was the only factor - he blamed Putin for inflation.  Presidents get wrongly blamed for things they didn't cause, but there's a second aspect here.  President Biden should be taking whatever action he can to mitigate inflation and its impacts.  By blaming Putin, Biden implied he had nothing to say about his own efforts, which is why I think people really disliked it.

As you point out, Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Yellen also got the inflation call wrong in 2021.  But what's missing is how they keep getting it wrong using the same narrative - inflation is just about to fall (most of 2021), then in Dec 2021 inflation is just about to fall ... and now the Fed is nudging rates up and expects in 2023 inflation is just about to fall.  Even if he's correct at some point, I would say he ran out of guesses already.

It's worth mentioning I predicted inflation would be over 8.5% on June 10 (CPI-U inflation for May), but I was correct for the wrong reasons.  I assumed oil prices correlated with energy prices, which was an incorrect assumption on my part.  Food inflation had been 0.9% to 1.0% since the end of 2021, and I assumed that would continue - also incorrect.  Lucky for me, my two wrong assumptions actually canceled each other out and inflation came in at 8.6%.

Even before that calculation, I thought peak inflation was incorrect.  But when a large part of the stock market (half?) saw inflation rise from April 8.3% to May 8.6%, that shattered many people's beliefs in rapidly falling inflation.  Based on the June 10 inflation data, a recession became much more likely - the new inflation data caught even the Fed by surprise.

Of relevance to former President Trump, a recession makes a Republican victory more likely in 2024.  In that scenario, former President Trump's main obstacle was laid out by Ice Cube 4 years ago.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y9oUnC8JtXY
« Last Edit: June 18, 2022, 12:27:57 PM by MustacheAndaHalf »

talltexan

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #484 on: June 20, 2022, 08:44:59 AM »
And now a CNN poll is showing that Trump has actually become more popular since the Jan. 6th attack and that he would beat Biden if the election were held today.

WTF

Polling about a hypothetical election held 28+ months away is as predictive as predicting gas prices that far in advance.

Take a look at where the previous six presidents were two and a half years before re-election. Both the Bushes had solid approval - one was reelected, the other wasn't. Bush Sr actually had his highest ratings a year later, but it wasn't enough. Reagan had the second lowest approval of recent presidents at this point in his presidency but was re-elected in a landslide. Trump's appeared on the upswing but he hit a ceiling - and a floor - and lost.

I agree it's pretty early.  What's discouraging is that half of voters think the answer is to bring back Trump.  It's like seeing Nixon impeached and resign in disgrace in the 1970s and then voters thinking later, you know, we should bring that guy back as our leader.  Ugh.

and I also agree that it's time for Biden to step aside.  Many years ago I attended a talk by former Texas governor Ann Richards.   A question came from the audience asking if she'd consider running for political office again.  Her answer was, "You have to know when it's your time."  I admired her for that.

I think part of the fault lies with the congressional rules giving powers to congress members strictly by seniority -that's swaying voters in their state to re-elect the same politicians (looking at you Feinstein, et al.) and reap the benefits of that extra power vs. electing a new politician who gets bumped down on the priority list for committee assignments, etc. 

Thank you for your service, Joe B.  Now let the next generation have their chance.

Setting Biden aside, Democratic Presidents' ages when elected:

  • Obama: 47
  • Clinton: 46
  • Carter: 52
  • Kennedy: 43

Two Governors and two Senators.

Among Republicans who were elected (post-Kennedy), the youngest was George W. Bush, who was 54.

nereo

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #485 on: June 20, 2022, 08:59:19 AM »
(just to put them side-by-side, thanks @talltexan)

Setting Biden aside, Democratic Presidents' ages when elected:

  • Obama: 47
  • Clinton: 46
  • Carter: 52
  • Kennedy: 43
  • Biden: 78
Mean (years): 53
Two Governors and two Senators.

Among Republicans post-WWII:
  • Eisenhower: 62
  • LBJ: 55
  • Nixon: 56
  • Ford: 61
  • Reagan: 69 (and 11/12ths)
  • GHW Bush: 64
  • GWB: 54
  • Trump: 70
Mean (years): 61
A military general, 2 senators, 2 house members, 1 governor and whatever you want to consider Trump (real-estate/entertainment?)


caracarn

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #486 on: June 20, 2022, 09:09:04 AM »
(just to put them side-by-side, thanks @talltexan)

Setting Biden aside, Democratic Presidents' ages when elected:

  • Obama: 47
  • Clinton: 46
  • Carter: 52
  • Kennedy: 43
  • Biden: 78
Mean (years): 53
Two Governors and two Senators.

Among Republicans post-WWII:
  • Eisenhower: 62
  • LBJ: 55
  • Nixon: 56
  • Ford: 61
  • Reagan: 69 (and 11/12ths)
  • GHW Bush: 64
  • GWB: 54
  • Trump: 70
Mean (years): 61
A military general, 2 senators, 2 house members, 1 governor and whatever you want to consider Trump (real-estate/entertainment?)
Let's be honest here.   You have two Republicans who were entertainers, Reagan and Trump.   Reagan did not have enough governing experience.  That's like saying if he was eligible with citizenship, that if Schwarzenegger had run and become president that you had a governor in there.   No.

And let's be further clear that the slide that led to the "continuing outrages related to our 45th President" began with the policies of Reagan (and this is coming from someone who had leaned heavily conservative in their policies their whole life).  At some point the electorate needs to educate themselves enough to long term impacts to look past their short term whining about inflation or gas prices (both of which a president has little to no real power over) or the latest complaint of the moment and realize that the "fix" here is making it clear that we need to regain the desire to have a collective public good as the driver for our politicians.   I am not sure we have a single elected representative that would truly reflect that point but sadly I am beginning to see that is because selfishness has become a primary driver of choice in voters.
« Last Edit: June 20, 2022, 09:15:37 AM by caracarn »

Psychstache

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #487 on: June 20, 2022, 09:10:15 AM »

Among Republicans post-WWII:
...
LBJ: 55



Ummm...?

FIPurpose

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #488 on: June 20, 2022, 10:28:49 AM »

Among Republicans post-WWII:
...
LBJ: 55



Ummm...?

I wouldn't completely disagree. But I think you'd have to assign Eisenhower to modern Dems. Nixon's Southern strategy started a big realignment in our politics, so neither LBJ nor Eisenhower completely fit in our current parties.

I mean even Nixon supported universal healthcare coverage. That era of the GOP has long since died.

PDXTabs

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #489 on: June 20, 2022, 10:34:59 AM »
I mean even Nixon supported universal healthcare coverage. That era of the GOP has long since died.

He also started the EPA and supported negative income taxes. Economically he was further to the left than Obama.

talltexan

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #490 on: June 20, 2022, 10:41:16 AM »
In the Nixon era, Republicans were listening to Milton Friedmann. It wasn't until later that they discovered the Austrians.

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #491 on: June 20, 2022, 11:38:16 AM »
In the Nixon era, Republicans were listening to Milton Friedmann. It wasn't until later that they discovered the Austrians went backwards in time and economic understanding.

Suggested edit for those not familiar with the cartoon-economics of Von Mises.

Glenstache

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #492 on: June 20, 2022, 11:40:50 AM »
Also, in Texas it appears that the inmates have taken over the asylum:

Quote
The Republican Party in Texas made a series of far-right declarations as part of its official party platform over the weekend, claiming that President Biden was not legitimately elected, issuing a “rebuke” to Senator John Cornyn for his work on bipartisan gun legislation and referring to homosexuality as “an abnormal lifestyle choice.”

sonofsven

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #493 on: June 20, 2022, 12:04:00 PM »
Also, in Texas it appears that the inmates have taken over the asylum:

Quote
The Republican Party in Texas made a series of far-right declarations as part of its official party platform over the weekend, claiming that President Biden was not legitimately elected, issuing a “rebuke” to Senator John Cornyn for his work on bipartisan gun legislation and referring to homosexuality as “an abnormal lifestyle choice.”

Voting for an R in TX is better described as an "... abnormal lifestyle choice..." at this point.
The jokes, they write themselves.

talltexan

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #494 on: June 20, 2022, 12:21:01 PM »
In the Nixon era, Republicans were listening to Milton Friedmann. It wasn't until later that they discovered the Austrians went backwards in time and economic understanding.

Suggested edit for those not familiar with the cartoon-economics of Von Mises.

100% support this edit.

bacchi

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #495 on: June 20, 2022, 03:10:21 PM »
Also, in Texas it appears that the inmates have taken over the asylum:

Quote
The Republican Party in Texas made a series of far-right declarations as part of its official party platform over the weekend, claiming that President Biden was not legitimately elected, issuing a “rebuke” to Senator John Cornyn for his work on bipartisan gun legislation and referring to homosexuality as “an abnormal lifestyle choice.”

Cornyn was booed by the crowd when he made a speech and Crenshaw, who has an 89% score from Heritage Action, was harassed.

Then there's the Greitans (MO) video, where he advocates hunting RINOs (Is Cornyn a RINO now?).

The problem with banana republic parties is that you only win if you have the last chair. Some Republicans will realize too late that they should fear the monster they created.

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #496 on: June 21, 2022, 08:15:29 AM »
Also, in Texas it appears that the inmates have taken over the asylum:

Quote
The Republican Party in Texas made a series of far-right declarations as part of its official party platform over the weekend, claiming that President Biden was not legitimately elected, issuing a “rebuke” to Senator John Cornyn for his work on bipartisan gun legislation and referring to homosexuality as “an abnormal lifestyle choice.”
Cornyn was booed by the crowd when he made a speech and Crenshaw, who has an 89% score from Heritage Action, was harassed.
Chuck Todd made what I consider a rare insightful comment: if someone wants to be a leader in the House or Senate, they need to decide between that or being liked.  For Senator Cornyn, he can get bipartisan legislation done on gun control and score points towards leading Republicans in the Senate.  But that won't be a path to popularity.

talltexan

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #497 on: June 21, 2022, 08:31:43 AM »
let's see if McCarthy becomes speaker in January.

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #498 on: June 21, 2022, 08:46:42 AM »
It makes sense to me. In my lifetime, I don't think there has been a single popular Speaker or Senate leader in my lifetime. But I think that more or less just follows Congress' favorability. They aren't able to pass meaningful legislation, so no one likes them. Everything is so watered down by the time it passes, no one is really all that happy except for the handful of millionaires and political donors that win.

Saw a poll that a large chunk of conservatives want to see Trump made Speaker. So... that would be crazy.

Psychstache

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Re: Continuing outrages related to our 45th President
« Reply #499 on: June 21, 2022, 08:49:14 AM »
It makes sense to me. In my lifetime, I don't think there has been a single popular Speaker or Senate leader in my lifetime. But I think that more or less just follows Congress' favorability. They aren't able to pass meaningful legislation, so no one likes them. Everything is so watered down by the time it passes, no one is really all that happy except for the handful of millionaires and political donors that win.

Saw a poll that a large chunk of conservatives want to see Trump made Speaker. So... that would be crazy.

Isn't that likely just a residual of the '5d chess plan' of making him speaker, then impeaching and removing the president and VP to have the pathway to ascend back to the presidency?