Hi soccerluv - thanks for your open, honest approach to this. The way I think about climate change:
Yes, the models aren't perfectly accurate because unfortunately models never are. There's a good deal we're still learning about our planet; for example, the early models didn't fully account for how much carbon our oceans would absorb. This goes the other way, though, too - the models could well be underestimating climate change's impact. The unreliability cuts both ways.
As for China's damaging impact - yes, we definitely do need to watch out for the growing emissions in developing countries. We do need to ensure that any regulations we pass don't simply result in greater manufacturing outsourcing to less regulated countries. However (from last data I've seen - 2012), while China's total emissions are higher than ours, our per capita emissions are still much higher - 16.4 tons to their 7.1 tons. It's also worth noting that those numbers are production not consumption - so when Americans buy things made in coal-powered Chinese factories, those emissions are counted with China's, not ours.
As for the suggestion that environmentalists are just liberals looking for another reason to regulate (made in the linked article), I simply don't think that's generally the case. Of course there are exceptions to the rule. But I consider myself an environmentalist, and I've first tried to make all those changes I individually could - forgoing a car, drastically scaled back my meat and dairy consumption, living in a multi-unit apartment building to save heating fuel... etc., and only advocating for policy changes after that. (And for what it's worth - I favor revenue-neutral carbon taxes. I believe that paying for the damage your actions cause other people is key for personal accountability).
Lastly, and I may catch some flak for calling myself an environmentalist and saying this - but I don't particularly care about the polar bears. My concerns about climate change stem from my concern for my daughter and her future. I hate to think that because of my actions today (or lack thereof) she'll grow up in a world without the many blessings I take for granted - a mostly benign weather system, food security, freedom from infectious, lethal disease (e.g. malaria, which thankfully doesn't thrive where I live now - but that could change). There is literally nothing I wouldn't do for her.
That being the case, I can't imagine looking back, and thinking "gosh, climate change isn't that bad, I should have eaten more steak." But the thought of her, 20 years from now, asking me "What did you do to try to prevent these storms/food riots/ chaos caused by climate refugees", and my having to answer, "Well, I mean I recycled and stuff... the scientists were only 95% sure, I wasn't going to do anything crazy like pay more for renewable energy!"
I guess that's the conservative, risk-averse side of me :)
