Author Topic: Climate Change - A little more freaked out than normal  (Read 12743 times)

chaskavitch

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Re: Climate Change - A little more freaked out than normal
« Reply #50 on: January 07, 2018, 10:46:32 AM »
Thanks for all the youtube videos and ted talks that were linked!  I'm interested to watch them.

DH is convinced most of Colorado is going to be without water by the time our kids are adults, and we're trying to decide where to move (soon-ish) that will better support a lifestyle with a lot of gardening and possibly livestock/hunting and some water rights.  However, I'm interested in what we can do right now to help the issue.  We compost, recycle, bike, keep our house cold/hot depending on the outside temperature, cloth diaper, wash our clothes (except for said diapers) on cold, buy local meat, try to remember our reusable bags, etc, and I know that if EVERYONE did these things it would help, but it all seems slightly trivial. 

Is there anything, I don't know, BIGGER that we can do as individuals?  Our utility company offers electricity from renewable sources for an extra fee ( ~ 2 cents/ kWh), but I don't even know how much that helps, especially when trying to minimize personal costs.

letired

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Re: Climate Change - A little more freaked out than normal
« Reply #51 on: January 07, 2018, 11:02:31 AM »
Thanks for all the youtube videos and ted talks that were linked!  I'm interested to watch them.

DH is convinced most of Colorado is going to be without water by the time our kids are adults, and we're trying to decide where to move (soon-ish) that will better support a lifestyle with a lot of gardening and possibly livestock/hunting and some water rights.  However, I'm interested in what we can do right now to help the issue.  We compost, recycle, bike, keep our house cold/hot depending on the outside temperature, cloth diaper, wash our clothes (except for said diapers) on cold, buy local meat, try to remember our reusable bags, etc, and I know that if EVERYONE did these things it would help, but it all seems slightly trivial. 

Is there anything, I don't know, BIGGER that we can do as individuals?  Our utility company offers electricity from renewable sources for an extra fee ( ~ 2 cents/ kWh), but I don't even know how much that helps, especially when trying to minimize personal costs.

Individual action is cool and all, but the biggest wins for emission reduction are on the industrial scale, and that is difficult to make happen without government action. So as an individual, the best thing you can do is be a thorn in the side of every official that represents you. Call them, every day if you can manage, and remind them that climate change is real and they need to be pursuing solutions to reduce carbon emissions. Remind them that your vote depends on it. Don't just call your national officials. Call your state officials, your city officials, and the local school board, literally everyone. If calling doesn't work for you, write emails, letters, send faxes. Whatever gets the job done. I like Resistbot for contacting national officials, and many state and local officials should have phone numbers and email addresses available with minimal digging. And when you've got your groove going, start talking to your friends and neighbors about also contacting their reps.

My city utility also has a renewable energy program that sounds similar to yours, though it sounds like ours is a bit cheaper. I'm bringing in enough and think climate change is a big enough issue that I'm happy to pay the extra 3/4 of a penny per KWH for wind power.

gaja

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Re: Climate Change - A little more freaked out than normal
« Reply #52 on: January 07, 2018, 12:05:23 PM »
Thanks for all the youtube videos and ted talks that were linked!  I'm interested to watch them.

DH is convinced most of Colorado is going to be without water by the time our kids are adults, and we're trying to decide where to move (soon-ish) that will better support a lifestyle with a lot of gardening and possibly livestock/hunting and some water rights.  However, I'm interested in what we can do right now to help the issue.  We compost, recycle, bike, keep our house cold/hot depending on the outside temperature, cloth diaper, wash our clothes (except for said diapers) on cold, buy local meat, try to remember our reusable bags, etc, and I know that if EVERYONE did these things it would help, but it all seems slightly trivial. 

Is there anything, I don't know, BIGGER that we can do as individuals?  Our utility company offers electricity from renewable sources for an extra fee ( ~ 2 cents/ kWh), but I don't even know how much that helps, especially when trying to minimize personal costs.

Individual action is cool and all, but the biggest wins for emission reduction are on the industrial scale, and that is difficult to make happen without government action. So as an individual, the best thing you can do is be a thorn in the side of every official that represents you. Call them, every day if you can manage, and remind them that climate change is real and they need to be pursuing solutions to reduce carbon emissions. Remind them that your vote depends on it. Don't just call your national officials. Call your state officials, your city officials, and the local school board, literally everyone. If calling doesn't work for you, write emails, letters, send faxes. Whatever gets the job done. I like Resistbot for contacting national officials, and many state and local officials should have phone numbers and email addresses available with minimal digging. And when you've got your groove going, start talking to your friends and neighbors about also contacting their reps.

My city utility also has a renewable energy program that sounds similar to yours, though it sounds like ours is a bit cheaper. I'm bringing in enough and think climate change is a big enough issue that I'm happy to pay the extra 3/4 of a penny per KWH for wind power.

Nagging the businesses directly might also help; write letters to transport companies with copies to their largest customers, where you ask what they have done to limit their environmental footprint, or suggest they look into biogas as a fuel. Contact hotels and shops and say you are considering becoming a customer, but it would be easier if they had good parking for bikes and/or charging stations for electric cars. Write positive comments on facebook pages of companies when they do good stuff, and negative at the largest polluters.

"Public opinion" is important for both politicians and private companies, but it is a fickle thing to measure. Those who bother to voice their opinion, are disproportionatly heard. This is why letired's suggestions really do work. To increase the chance of influence, you can also take a lesson from the major lobbyists: Don't just say you disagree with something - make an alternative suggestion. If the zoning regulation in your city says each appartment needs two parking places; write a short and concrete suggestion that a politician can present as a suggestion, and a text that a bureaucrate can copy paste directly into a document/law.
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Grog

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Re: Climate Change - A little more freaked out than normal
« Reply #53 on: January 08, 2018, 01:00:12 AM »
Another thing is the fact that fertilizer is made from phosphor that is not very abundant. I think we won't be able to produce as much food without fertilizer. Ecological agriculture takes up much more space than modern agriculture. I think we will have to accept more genetically modified food in the future, like rice being able to stand in water without drowning, other plant species resiliant against fungi and pests. I recently saw a TED talk about the world food crisis being there already in 10 years.

Let's also not forget the bees that are dying out. I can recommand the book"The history of Bees. A Novel", which describes the dying of the bees and a possible future without bees, in the form of a novel.


Sources of the bolded? Becuase in my knowledge Organic Agriculture in rain fed system has higher yield per hectare while protecting soil and insects than traditional agriculture. Source: the FAO itseld:
"In rain-fed systems, organic agriculture has demonstrated to outperform conventional agricultural systems under environmental stress conditions"
http://www.fao.org/organicag/oa-faq/oa-faq7/en/



J Boogie

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Re: Climate Change - A little more freaked out than normal
« Reply #54 on: January 08, 2018, 09:57:25 AM »
I don't mean to promote selfishness and cynicism, but my guess is that many on this forum do not yet have enough free time to devote to climate change advocacy.

Even if we all did - The people in power who need to hear the science and how various emission levels over the coming years will likely play out have probably already heard and are either not convinced or not incentivized enough to do something about it.

It's very possible the best thing we can realistically do is to live our own lives with the smallest footprint possible, and also prepare ourselves and our families for the consequences that climate change will bring about. Whether that means we move and divest of all coastal property, learn to how to grow our own food in a variety of conditions, investing in real estate in relatively stable regions that could potentially be used later on to house climate refugees, investing in water filtration/grey water use capabilities, solar panels as others have mentioned etc.

I know most here don't lean in the doomsday prepper direction and I don't either, but it does seem like some very bad effects of climate change will begin to unfold in our children's lifetimes and a big part of me wants to do my best to ensure they'll have the best resources available to them to thrive and help others.


sol

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Re: Climate Change - A little more freaked out than normal
« Reply #55 on: January 08, 2018, 10:30:10 AM »
The world is changing, but that's nothing new.  People already live in scalding deserts, and in flooded cities, and in places buried in snow and in places with no glaciers or ice caps.  We are a supremely adaptable species.

It's the rest of the ecosystem that will suffer.  We're going to lose a few million species that can't adapt or migrate fast enough.  Some habitats will cease to exist.  Most coral reefs are doomed, and changes to oceanic circulation patterns will drastically alter the average climate in some places.  Mass migrations of humans are probably inevitable, but will take generations to play out and we can deal with it.  Mass migrations of ecosystems will not go so smoothly.

Oregon turning into socal isn't that big of a deal.  Canada will benefit.  The Maldives are royally screwed.  Yes there will be dramatic changes to natural cycles, but these days prosperous nations are pretty well insulated from natural cycles.  America's just don't die of heat stroke the way people do in poorer countries, because we can all find AC at the mall.

Manhattan isn't going anywhere.  We'll happily spend billions to protect real estate worth trillions.  Try to not stress too much.

Now if you live in Bangladesh or Sudan, yea you probably need to gtfo.  But then you already knew that before climate change started piling on to your problems.
sol will be totally offline for most of June 2018.  You cannot reach me.  You will not hear from me.  I am not dead, just away from civilization.

Linda_Norway

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Re: Climate Change - A little more freaked out than normal
« Reply #56 on: January 08, 2018, 10:56:02 AM »
Another thing is the fact that fertilizer is made from phosphor that is not very abundant. I think we won't be able to produce as much food without fertilizer. Ecological agriculture takes up much more space than modern agriculture. I think we will have to accept more genetically modified food in the future, like rice being able to stand in water without drowning, other plant species resiliant against fungi and pests. I recently saw a TED talk about the world food crisis being there already in 10 years.

Let's also not forget the bees that are dying out. I can recommand the book"The history of Bees. A Novel", which describes the dying of the bees and a possible future without bees, in the form of a novel.


Sources of the bolded? Becuase in my knowledge Organic Agriculture in rain fed system has higher yield per hectare while protecting soil and insects than traditional agriculture. Source: the FAO itseld:
"In rain-fed systems, organic agriculture has demonstrated to outperform conventional agricultural systems under environmental stress conditions"
http://www.fao.org/organicag/oa-faq/oa-faq7/en/

I either read it somewhere or saw it in a TV documentary.
Here I find a website that describes it, although it was not my original source.
https://www.acsh.org/news/2017/05/26/organic-farms-use-more-land-and-dont-decrease-carbon-footprint-11338

Grog

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Re: Climate Change - A little more freaked out than normal
« Reply #57 on: January 08, 2018, 12:03:13 PM »
I still recommend to watch this documentary, winner of the cesar 2016:
https://www.demain-lefilm.com/en


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Just Joe

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Re: Climate Change - A little more freaked out than normal
« Reply #58 on: January 08, 2018, 12:10:00 PM »
I am of the mind that nothing will begin to change until it affects someone's profits. I also believer that nothing we already do will change very fast b/c someone powerful is making a big profit off of the status quo.

My fear though is that change will not happen b/c of profits until it is too late to easily recover or adapt to the environmental changes.

I think what we can be doing is voting with our dollars - buy efficiency, consider personal solar/wind/EVs, shop local, live where you can bicycle, etc.

Also for those of us with children, learn and teach how to take care of yourself. Learn to repair things, learn to build things, learn to grow things. By day you might be a desk bound professional but by night, you might be a welder/mechanic/farmer with the means and space to do these sorts of tasks. You have a home shop capable of supporting your little piece of land and all that your try to do there.

I want to make sustainable choices so if the retail mechanism breaks - can't get parts - I can keep my home going and I can pedal to the markets to trade my skills for their food if necessary.

I have almost no hope in the government - especially the current one. We need long term planning by very smart people who are experts in their specialties and the current administration seems to be chasing them away.

In the meantime DW and family will continue to save and learn and hope we are making the right choices. I don't want to leave the USA but we would if it became evident that our gov't had its priorities completely wrong.

I think there would be a quickly evident if we put as much effort and money into building a modern and sustainable country as we do in having history's largest and most lethal military. And it seems our gov't tries to find opportunities for it to be used to justify its existence.

Just Joe

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Re: Climate Change - A little more freaked out than normal
« Reply #59 on: January 08, 2018, 12:13:41 PM »
I still recommend to watch this documentary, winner of the cesar 2016:
https://www.demain-lefilm.com/en


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So we got on a plane and set out... ;)

That was one of the things that stuck with me from Al Gore's movie years ago. Pollution is a problem but in order to make this movie, I made alot of pollution to make my point. ;)

That said - I really want to see this movie now.

Aelias

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Re: Climate Change - A little more freaked out than normal
« Reply #60 on: January 08, 2018, 03:02:40 PM »
+1 to climate resilience.  Advocacy is essential and we all need to be doing as much of it as we can.  But, even best case scenario, many people will start seeing more severe weather conditions.  At this point, just avoiding catastrophe* would be a huge accomplishment.

*meaning human catastrophe.  @sol is right - other species are fucked.

So, in order of increasing level of difficulty/expense, here are the things we're doing to build resilience:

-Priority of transit: walk, public transit, cars (1 EV, 1 plug-in hybrid).  Flying limited to business or crossing a continent or ocean.
-Keep preparedness basics onhand (hand crank radio, first aid kit, water (bottled in old 2L bottles from a friend with a Dr. Pepper habit), shelf stable food)
-Gardening.  Like, a lot of gardening.  Including fruit trees and vines.  We currently grow from plants, but would like to move toward saving and sprouting seeds.
-Have plenty of food that can be stored without electricity.  We've got a bunch of stuff canned from our garden.  Looking into a dehydrator and trash can root cellar.
-Diversify home energy consumption.  We currently have grid-tied solar that meets all our current consumption including cars.  I'd love to install a "switch" of some kind that would take us off-grid.  We're also looking at a fireplace insert or woodstove and possibly a gas generator.
-Save for second property with more land and good water supply

MilitaryMedicineMustache

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Re: Climate Change - A little more freaked out than normal
« Reply #61 on: January 08, 2018, 03:50:47 PM »
I thought it was all part of Trump's plan to Make Antarctica Warm Again?  #MAWA.  Time to buy up property near the poles...  /s

Honestly, this is one of the biggest issues that makes me love Elon Musk so much.  I think the electric semis are a good start and would love to see them eventually make public transit that is 100% electric.  Once companies and governments see that forward thinking can *save* them money, in addition to the environmental benefits, they'll come around.  It's just a matter of surviving until then.  And, maybe saving enough money to afford a trip to Mars whenever that happens...
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Miss Piggy

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Re: Climate Change - A little more freaked out than normal
« Reply #62 on: January 08, 2018, 06:42:42 PM »
I feel like the biggest mistake that's been made regarding climate change (well, other than everything we've done to cause it) was when Al Gore became a "spokesperson." I have no feelings one way or another about Al Gore, but I think it was a huge mistake for the movement to select a politician as its voice/face, or however that went down. In a nanosecond, it went from science to politics, and half of America instantly didn't believe a word of it. It became an uphill battle, the opposite of what was intended.

Maybe my memory isn't all that accurate about this, but I know in my own circle, even the republican scientists don't buy a word of "that global warming crap" (their words, not mine).

Linda_Norway

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Re: Climate Change - A little more freaked out than normal
« Reply #63 on: January 09, 2018, 01:12:15 AM »
Honestly, this is one of the biggest issues that makes me love Elon Musk so much.  I think the electric semis are a good start and would love to see them eventually make public transit that is 100% electric.  Once companies and governments see that forward thinking can *save* them money, in addition to the environmental benefits, they'll come around.  It's just a matter of surviving until then.  And, maybe saving enough money to afford a trip to Mars whenever that happens...

Recently the Netherlands ordered a windmill park and put it out on a public competition. It turned out to cost much less than they expected. That means windmills are becoming more competitive. I also have the impression that some states in the US have figured out that solar energy is to be more profitable than charcoal, despite Trump policies. But we could improve the world so much better if government policies in every country were pointing in the same direction.

soccerluvof4

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Re: Climate Change - A little more freaked out than normal
« Reply #64 on: January 10, 2018, 03:40:41 AM »
The world is changing, but that's nothing new.  People already live in scalding deserts, and in flooded cities, and in places buried in snow and in places with no glaciers or ice caps.  We are a supremely adaptable species.

It's the rest of the ecosystem that will suffer.  We're going to lose a few million species that can't adapt or migrate fast enough.  Some habitats will cease to exist.  Most coral reefs are doomed, and changes to oceanic circulation patterns will drastically alter the average climate in some places.  Mass migrations of humans are probably inevitable, but will take generations to play out and we can deal with it.  Mass migrations of ecosystems will not go so smoothly.

Oregon turning into socal isn't that big of a deal.  Canada will benefit.  The Maldives are royally screwed.  Yes there will be dramatic changes to natural cycles, but these days prosperous nations are pretty well insulated from natural cycles.  America's just don't die of heat stroke the way people do in poorer countries, because we can all find AC at the mall.

Manhattan isn't going anywhere.  We'll happily spend billions to protect real estate worth trillions.  Try to not stress too much.

Now if you live in Bangladesh or Sudan, yea you probably need to gtfo.  But then you already knew that before climate change started piling on to your problems.



Well said.  As we are looking to move to the SE for our permanent retirement home, I would of never thought of these being something I would need to take into consideration. We have decided that we dont want to be closer than 50 miles to the Ocean and even look at Elevations. I am not a doomsdayer but no one can deny things are changing.
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Aelias

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Re: Climate Change - A little more freaked out than normal
« Reply #65 on: January 10, 2018, 10:48:52 AM »

10,000 years ago San Francisco Bay was a dry grassy valley populated by elephants, zebras, and camels.

I shouldn't engage, but as a biologist, I can't help it. Anyone who claims zebras have ever lived in San Francisco is, to put it politely, not a reliable resource.

You, my friend, displayed some commendable restraint right there.

Malaysia41

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Re: Climate Change - A little more freaked out than normal
« Reply #66 on: January 10, 2018, 11:02:38 AM »
I'm just working on accepting the fact that as a species, humans are proving to be no more intelligent than a colony of bacteria.
« Last Edit: January 10, 2018, 11:04:15 AM by Malaysia41 »
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toganet

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Re: Climate Change - A little more freaked out than normal
« Reply #68 on: January 10, 2018, 11:45:22 AM »
An interesting development over the last year or so is that the CW denial movement has begun morphing its message from "It's a hoax!" to "It's real, but the things we would have to do to prevent disaster are a wet dream for the Left, therefore we are against action!"

The effect we are seeing is due to unmoderated extraction & consumption of millions of years of fossil fuel.  It's a one-time shot for the human race that has so far created massive wealth and (unevenly) improved the lives of billions of humans.  But to sustain that prosperity for future generations we cannot continue in the same manner, and it is this reality that is too horrible for many to accept.

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Re: Climate Change - A little more freaked out than normal
« Reply #69 on: January 10, 2018, 12:09:36 PM »

10,000 years ago San Francisco Bay was a dry grassy valley populated by elephants, zebras, and camels.

I shouldn't engage, but as a biologist, I can't help it. Anyone who claims zebras have ever lived in San Francisco is, to put it politely, not a reliable resource.

You, my friend, displayed some commendable restraint right there.

Make sure you get the quote correct, because I did not say that.  I quoted someone else to make a point.

It doesn't matter what lived in the Bay Area 15,000 years ago.  The sea level has varied significantly over time, relatively short periods of time from the geological perspective. Climate change has been going on since the planet was formed and will go on long after our species disappears.  At some point, the existing life will disappear, and unless conditions are not hospitable, some other forms of life will appear. 

We may have changed the trend or accelerated the existing direction.  Get over yourselves and realize there is not a whole lot you can do about it.  All the walking, cycling, and turning off the AC isn't going to accomplish a damn thing.  Unless governments see the threat, which they rarely do, especially when it threatens their interests, we are stuck with the trend.

soccerluvof4

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Re: Climate Change - A little more freaked out than normal
« Reply #70 on: January 10, 2018, 01:22:24 PM »

10,000 years ago San Francisco Bay was a dry grassy valley populated by elephants, zebras, and camels.

I shouldn't engage, but as a biologist, I can't help it. Anyone who claims zebras have ever lived in San Francisco is, to put it politely, not a reliable resource.

You, my friend, displayed some commendable restraint right there.

Make sure you get the quote correct, because I did not say that.  I quoted someone else to make a point.

It doesn't matter what lived in the Bay Area 15,000 years ago.  The sea level has varied significantly over time, relatively short periods of time from the geological perspective. Climate change has been going on since the planet was formed and will go on long after our species disappears.  At some point, the existing life will disappear, and unless conditions are not hospitable, some other forms of life will appear. 

We may have changed the trend or accelerated the existing direction.  Get over yourselves and realize there is not a whole lot you can do about it.  All the walking, cycling, and turning off the AC isn't going to accomplish a damn thing.  Unless governments see the threat, which they rarely do, especially when it threatens their interests, we are stuck with the trend.



yup!
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bacchi

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Re: Climate Change - A little more freaked out than normal
« Reply #71 on: January 10, 2018, 01:34:49 PM »
We may have changed the trend or accelerated the existing direction.  Get over yourselves and realize there is not a whole lot you can do about it.  All the walking, cycling, and turning off the AC isn't going to accomplish a damn thing.  Unless governments see the threat, which they rarely do, especially when it threatens their interests, we are stuck with the trend.

Eh, we created the problem. We can solve the problem.

Individual actions do influence others. Influencing others sways voters, which sways politicians. Natural events will also sway voters (Miami is flooding AGAIN?!?).

Dabnasty

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Re: Climate Change - A little more freaked out than normal
« Reply #72 on: January 10, 2018, 02:43:31 PM »

It doesn't matter what lived in the Bay Area 15,000 years ago.  The sea level has varied significantly over time, relatively short periods of time from the geological perspective. Climate change has been going on since the planet was formed and will go on long after our species disappears.  At some point, the existing life will disappear, and unless conditions are not hospitable, some other forms of life will appear. 

We may have changed the trend or accelerated the existing direction.  Get over yourselves and realize there is not a whole lot you can do about it.  All the walking, cycling, and turning off the AC isn't going to accomplish a damn thing.  Unless governments see the threat, which they rarely do, especially when it threatens their interests, we are stuck with the trend.

EVERY little thing counts, just like every little dollar counts towards achieving FI. Now I do understand that if our actions made a small enough difference it would be futile, but when the human race is the thing that is causing the damage it is not beyond our scope to make a change. Will it happen? Unfortunately I'm not optimistic but attitudes like yours are part of the reason why.

Regarding the bolded, yes, sea levels have changed over relatively short periods of time from the geological perspective. But now they are changing over extremely short periods of time.

zoltani

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Re: Climate Change - A little more freaked out than normal
« Reply #73 on: January 10, 2018, 03:06:50 PM »
I'm just working on accepting the fact that as a species, humans are proving to be no more intelligent than a colony of bacteria.

We are more bacteria than human after all.

scottish

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Re: Climate Change - A little more freaked out than normal
« Reply #74 on: January 10, 2018, 03:34:05 PM »
BTW, the religion of anthropomorphic climate change consensus is showing cracks
http://notrickszone.com/2018/01/04/485-scientific-papers-published-in-2017-support-a-skeptical-position-on-climate-alarm/#sthash.F3SfohQO.3TqpYy74.dpbs

I don't think anyone ever thought carbon dioxide was *the* giant control knob!

Quote
485 scientific papers have been published that cast doubt on the position that anthropogenic CO2 emissions function as the climate’s fundamental control knob

Non-linear systems are pretty hard to predict.   Little bit of fake news in the teaser, wot?

The whole point of this process is to speculate about which climate models work, gather evidence, correct course, gather more evidence, and so on until we have more understanding of what works in the models and what doesn't.    It's perfectly normal to find some evidence that disagrees with the earlier studies.
Actually, throughout my life, my two greatest assets have been mental stability and being, like, really smart.

bacchi

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Re: Climate Change - A little more freaked out than normal
« Reply #75 on: January 10, 2018, 03:56:17 PM »
BTW, the religion of anthropomorphic climate change consensus is showing cracks
http://notrickszone.com/2018/01/04/485-scientific-papers-published-in-2017-support-a-skeptical-position-on-climate-alarm/#sthash.F3SfohQO.3TqpYy74.dpbs

I don't think anyone ever thought carbon dioxide was *the* giant control knob!

Quote
485 scientific papers have been published that cast doubt on the position that anthropogenic CO2 emissions function as the climate’s fundamental control knob

Non-linear systems are pretty hard to predict.   Little bit of fake news in the teaser, wot?

The whole point of this process is to speculate about which climate models work, gather evidence, correct course, gather more evidence, and so on until we have more understanding of what works in the models and what doesn't.    It's perfectly normal to find some evidence that disagrees with the earlier studies.

It's completely fake news.

https://www.snopes.com/400-papers-published-in-2017-prove-that-global-warming-is-myth/

Quote from: snopes
The first time that Breitbart ran a NTZ based-story, numerous scientists listed in the report pointed out their their graphs had been digitally altered by NTZ to omit data....

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Re: Climate Change - A little more freaked out than normal
« Reply #76 on: January 10, 2018, 04:42:09 PM »
Some people would do well to suspend their disbelief about what the Bay Area looked like at the end of the Pleistocene period, 15000-10000 years ago.  That was during the last major ice age.  The sea level was about 400 feet lower because of all the water locked up in the glaciers.  The the coastline was anywhere from 12 to 27 miles further west.  There was no San Francisco Bay.  There was a canyon cutting across what is now the bay, through the Golden Gate, draining the river that ran through the valleys.  The Farallon islands were hills.  There are no fossil relics of zebras, but there are fossils from mammoths, mastadons, camels, lions, sabertooths, and many other animals more reminiscent of the African Savannah than of San Francisco today. 

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Re: Climate Change - A little more freaked out than normal
« Reply #77 on: January 10, 2018, 05:04:04 PM »

It doesn't matter what lived in the Bay Area 15,000 years ago.  The sea level has varied significantly over time, relatively short periods of time from the geological perspective. Climate change has been going on since the planet was formed and will go on long after our species disappears.  At some point, the existing life will disappear, and unless conditions are not hospitable, some other forms of life will appear. 

We may have changed the trend or accelerated the existing direction.  Get over yourselves and realize there is not a whole lot you can do about it.  All the walking, cycling, and turning off the AC isn't going to accomplish a damn thing.  Unless governments see the threat, which they rarely do, especially when it threatens their interests, we are stuck with the trend.

EVERY little thing counts, just like every little dollar counts towards achieving FI. Now I do understand that if our actions made a small enough difference it would be futile, but when the human race is the thing that is causing the damage it is not beyond our scope to make a change. Will it happen? Unfortunately I'm not optimistic but attitudes like yours are part of the reason why.

Regarding the bolded, yes, sea levels have changed over relatively short periods of time from the geological perspective. But now they are changing over extremely short periods of time.

You do not think anything in the past could have triggered sea level or climate change in extremely short periods of time? What about the Younger Dryas period? What caused that?

letired

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Re: Climate Change - A little more freaked out than normal
« Reply #78 on: January 10, 2018, 07:17:26 PM »

10,000 years ago San Francisco Bay was a dry grassy valley populated by elephants, zebras, and camels.

I shouldn't engage, but as a biologist, I can't help it. Anyone who claims zebras have ever lived in San Francisco is, to put it politely, not a reliable resource.

You, my friend, displayed some commendable restraint right there.

Make sure you get the quote correct, because I did not say that.  I quoted someone else to make a point.

It doesn't matter what lived in the Bay Area 15,000 years ago.  The sea level has varied significantly over time, relatively short periods of time from the geological perspective. Climate change has been going on since the planet was formed and will go on long after our species disappears.  At some point, the existing life will disappear, and unless conditions are not hospitable, some other forms of life will appear. 

We may have changed the trend or accelerated the existing direction.  Get over yourselves and realize there is not a whole lot you can do about it.  All the walking, cycling, and turning off the AC isn't going to accomplish a damn thing.  Unless governments see the threat, which they rarely do, especially when it threatens their interests, we are stuck with the trend.

I don't find the distinction between exactly who said it to be a meaningful one. By quoting such an unreliable source, it throws doubt on your other statements for me.

I'm glad you recognize the seriousness of climate change. I believe I mentioned upthread that the most impactful thing an individual could do is to use their voice to influence politicians and large businesses to reduce their carbon emissions.

I agree that life as it exists on earth will eventually disappear. Per se, I don't really think that the extinction of humanity is a big deal. However, I don't find it unreasonable to attempt to postpone that, both from a selfish perspective (I'm not that old, and am not excited about dealing with the repercussions of climate change over my lifetime), out of affection for the young children in my life, and out of an ethical sense that I should endeavor to reduce overall suffering during my lifetime. If you have a different perspective, that's your prerogative, though I'm not sure why you are contributing to this thread, given it started with:

To start--I know this has been a contentious topic on the forum.  I'm starting from the premise that climate change is real and caused by human activity.  If you don't believe that, ok.  This isn't the thread for you.

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: Climate Change - A little more freaked out than normal
« Reply #79 on: January 10, 2018, 07:31:41 PM »
The way humans live today, the planet is above carrying capacity at 7 billion plus of them.  The usual population controls for overpopulated species of war, famine, and pestilence aren't working right now.  We have minimized famine and pestilence for the time being and there haven't been any wars large enough to impact human population for awhile.  At some point, something will fail and the population will be reduced by one or more of the big three.  Or maybe a large asteroid will collide with the planet and we will have another mass extinction event.

I completely agree with this comment on population. Right now, we're able to support this many people because soil fertility kept up by repeated application of fertilisers derived from - you guessed it - fossil fuels. At some point, climate disaster, war, famine, and pestilence are going to come right back and start shrinking the population to a sustainable level. I personally feel like the current problems in various parts of the Middle East may be the start of that. And watch out for antibiotic-resistant bacteria, too.

It's entirely possible that any of us in the younger generation (I'm 24) could have our lives upheaved by climate change. Be prepared.
If the carrying capacity of Earth isn't >=7 billion, then what is it?

Bonus questions: what was the carrying capacity of the Earth 15,000 years ago?

Remember to show your work.


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Re: Climate Change - A little more freaked out than normal
« Reply #81 on: January 10, 2018, 07:54:23 PM »
Well this went downhill in a hurry.  Apparently we have five strong climate deniers on the forum, and they're ALL in this thread.
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Re: Climate Change - A little more freaked out than normal
« Reply #82 on: January 10, 2018, 09:39:39 PM »

10,000 years ago San Francisco Bay was a dry grassy valley populated by elephants, zebras, and camels.

I shouldn't engage, but as a biologist, I can't help it. Anyone who claims zebras have ever lived in San Francisco is, to put it politely, not a reliable resource.

You, my friend, displayed some commendable restraint right there.

Make sure you get the quote correct, because I did not say that.  I quoted someone else to make a point.

It doesn't matter what lived in the Bay Area 15,000 years ago.  The sea level has varied significantly over time, relatively short periods of time from the geological perspective. Climate change has been going on since the planet was formed and will go on long after our species disappears.  At some point, the existing life will disappear, and unless conditions are not hospitable, some other forms of life will appear. 

We may have changed the trend or accelerated the existing direction.  Get over yourselves and realize there is not a whole lot you can do about it.  All the walking, cycling, and turning off the AC isn't going to accomplish a damn thing.  Unless governments see the threat, which they rarely do, especially when it threatens their interests, we are stuck with the trend.

I don't find the distinction between exactly who said it to be a meaningful one. By quoting such an unreliable source, it throws doubt on your other statements for me.

I'm glad you recognize the seriousness of climate change. I believe I mentioned upthread that the most impactful thing an individual could do is to use their voice to influence politicians and large businesses to reduce their carbon emissions.

I agree that life as it exists on earth will eventually disappear. Per se, I don't really think that the extinction of humanity is a big deal. However, I don't find it unreasonable to attempt to postpone that, both from a selfish perspective (I'm not that old, and am not excited about dealing with the repercussions of climate change over my lifetime), out of affection for the young children in my life, and out of an ethical sense that I should endeavor to reduce overall suffering during my lifetime. If you have a different perspective, that's your prerogative, though I'm not sure why you are contributing to this thread, given it started with:

To start--I know this has been a contentious topic on the forum.  I'm starting from the premise that climate change is real and caused by human activity.  If you don't believe that, ok.  This isn't the thread for you.

The facts are that 15,000 years ago, the sea level was 400 feet lower because of the ice age and all that water frozen in glaciers.  That's generally accepted as scientific fact.  Lots of animals, including camels but maybe not zebras (no zebra fossil relics) lived here.  I was not quoting this article because of zebras.  I was quoting it to put what's happening now in perspective.

In all probability, there will be major changes due to accelerated global warming.  Like Sol said, if you live in Bangladesh, which is routinely inundated by tropical cyclones anyway, it's probably time to gtfo if you can.  Don't think the government of Bangladesh is going to be able to do a lot about the problem.  For first world folks that are generally better positioned to survive, well, it's going to be an interesting hundred years.

Another Reader

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Re: Climate Change - A little more freaked out than normal
« Reply #83 on: January 10, 2018, 09:54:36 PM »
The way humans live today, the planet is above carrying capacity at 7 billion plus of them.  The usual population controls for overpopulated species of war, famine, and pestilence aren't working right now.  We have minimized famine and pestilence for the time being and there haven't been any wars large enough to impact human population for awhile.  At some point, something will fail and the population will be reduced by one or more of the big three.  Or maybe a large asteroid will collide with the planet and we will have another mass extinction event.

I completely agree with this comment on population. Right now, we're able to support this many people because soil fertility kept up by repeated application of fertilisers derived from - you guessed it - fossil fuels. At some point, climate disaster, war, famine, and pestilence are going to come right back and start shrinking the population to a sustainable level. I personally feel like the current problems in various parts of the Middle East may be the start of that. And watch out for antibiotic-resistant bacteria, too.

It's entirely possible that any of us in the younger generation (I'm 24) could have our lives upheaved by climate change. Be prepared.
If the carrying capacity of Earth isn't >=7 billion, then what is it?

Bonus questions: what was the carrying capacity of the Earth 15,000 years ago?

Remember to show your work.

There is evidence we are over carrying capacity in what you folks are talking about - global warming.  Going to be tough to sustain seven billion people if we eliminate a lot of what makes current food production and delivery possible.  Even tougher if/when we hit 11 billion.  The problem is the target moves with each "advance" in technology and the supply chain. 

When I was born, the population was about 2.7 billion.  Not much global warming back then.  Plenty of poverty and subsistence farming, though.  Carrying capacity then certainly wasn't 7 billion.


letired

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Re: Climate Change - A little more freaked out than normal
« Reply #84 on: January 10, 2018, 10:07:52 PM »

10,000 years ago San Francisco Bay was a dry grassy valley populated by elephants, zebras, and camels.

I shouldn't engage, but as a biologist, I can't help it. Anyone who claims zebras have ever lived in San Francisco is, to put it politely, not a reliable resource.

You, my friend, displayed some commendable restraint right there.

Make sure you get the quote correct, because I did not say that.  I quoted someone else to make a point.

It doesn't matter what lived in the Bay Area 15,000 years ago.  The sea level has varied significantly over time, relatively short periods of time from the geological perspective. Climate change has been going on since the planet was formed and will go on long after our species disappears.  At some point, the existing life will disappear, and unless conditions are not hospitable, some other forms of life will appear. 

We may have changed the trend or accelerated the existing direction.  Get over yourselves and realize there is not a whole lot you can do about it.  All the walking, cycling, and turning off the AC isn't going to accomplish a damn thing.  Unless governments see the threat, which they rarely do, especially when it threatens their interests, we are stuck with the trend.

I don't find the distinction between exactly who said it to be a meaningful one. By quoting such an unreliable source, it throws doubt on your other statements for me.

I'm glad you recognize the seriousness of climate change. I believe I mentioned upthread that the most impactful thing an individual could do is to use their voice to influence politicians and large businesses to reduce their carbon emissions.

I agree that life as it exists on earth will eventually disappear. Per se, I don't really think that the extinction of humanity is a big deal. However, I don't find it unreasonable to attempt to postpone that, both from a selfish perspective (I'm not that old, and am not excited about dealing with the repercussions of climate change over my lifetime), out of affection for the young children in my life, and out of an ethical sense that I should endeavor to reduce overall suffering during my lifetime. If you have a different perspective, that's your prerogative, though I'm not sure why you are contributing to this thread, given it started with:

To start--I know this has been a contentious topic on the forum.  I'm starting from the premise that climate change is real and caused by human activity.  If you don't believe that, ok.  This isn't the thread for you.

The facts are that 15,000 years ago, the sea level was 400 feet lower because of the ice age and all that water frozen in glaciers.  That's generally accepted as scientific fact.  Lots of animals, including camels but maybe not zebras (no zebra fossil relics) lived here.  I was not quoting this article because of zebras.  I was quoting it to put what's happening now in perspective.

In all probability, there will be major changes due to accelerated global warming.  Like Sol said, if you live in Bangladesh, which is routinely inundated by tropical cyclones anyway, it's probably time to gtfo if you can.  Don't think the government of Bangladesh is going to be able to do a lot about the problem.  For first world folks that are generally better positioned to survive, well, it's going to be an interesting hundred years.

... yes, I know the planet has undergone significant changes in both temperature and ocean level? I did a whole degree about it? yes, we are in for an ugly next few decades as the rate of change in temperature, weather, and ocean level moves at a speed unprecedented in the geological record? I'm not sure why you think the first world is any better positioned to survive climate change than anyone else, but ok. Maybe you are trying to say that climate change isn't a big deal because the planet used to be colder and there were glaciers? In which case, again:
To start--I know this has been a contentious topic on the forum.  I'm starting from the premise that climate change is real and caused by human activity.  If you don't believe that, ok.  This isn't the thread for you.

ok, I'm going to stop, because I literally have no idea what you are trying to communicate and I'm becoming very frustrated.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Climate Change - A little more freaked out than normal
« Reply #85 on: January 10, 2018, 10:11:27 PM »
PTF (please don't ban me)
Transitioning to FIRE'd albeit somewhat cautiously...

BookLoverL

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Re: Climate Change - A little more freaked out than normal
« Reply #86 on: January 10, 2018, 11:49:34 PM »
The way humans live today, the planet is above carrying capacity at 7 billion plus of them.  The usual population controls for overpopulated species of war, famine, and pestilence aren't working right now.  We have minimized famine and pestilence for the time being and there haven't been any wars large enough to impact human population for awhile.  At some point, something will fail and the population will be reduced by one or more of the big three.  Or maybe a large asteroid will collide with the planet and we will have another mass extinction event.

I completely agree with this comment on population. Right now, we're able to support this many people because soil fertility kept up by repeated application of fertilisers derived from - you guessed it - fossil fuels. At some point, climate disaster, war, famine, and pestilence are going to come right back and start shrinking the population to a sustainable level. I personally feel like the current problems in various parts of the Middle East may be the start of that. And watch out for antibiotic-resistant bacteria, too.

It's entirely possible that any of us in the younger generation (I'm 24) could have our lives upheaved by climate change. Be prepared.
If the carrying capacity of Earth isn't >=7 billion, then what is it?

Bonus questions: what was the carrying capacity of the Earth 15,000 years ago?

Remember to show your work.

There is evidence we are over carrying capacity in what you folks are talking about - global warming.  Going to be tough to sustain seven billion people if we eliminate a lot of what makes current food production and delivery possible.  Even tougher if/when we hit 11 billion.  The problem is the target moves with each "advance" in technology and the supply chain. 

When I was born, the population was about 2.7 billion.  Not much global warming back then.  Plenty of poverty and subsistence farming, though.  Carrying capacity then certainly wasn't 7 billion.



I haven't calculated carrying capacity precisely, but it's obvious that we are significantly over it. Before the technological age and the industrial revolution, populations stayed relatively steady on average for centuries, suggesting that the population then was about what is sustainable for a low-tech agriculture-based model.

http://chartsbin.com/view/28k

is a chart of UK population since 43 AD. Notice how low it is compared to the present for most of the graph. Each of the exponential steps comes around when a new technology was discovered.

Sure, you could possibly TECHNICALLY fit more humans on the planet if you want Earth to resemble a cross between Coruscant and Tatooine, with most people packed in like sardines, living in poverty, just about being fed from artificial indoor gardens, deserts to be covered in solar panels, and there to be no wild species left anywhere. But I don't think that's a sustainable future either - building materials must also be sustainable for repairs over the long term. And it's certainly not a desirable future.
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Malaysia41

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Re: Climate Change - A little more freaked out than normal
« Reply #87 on: January 10, 2018, 11:53:08 PM »
Regarding carrying capacity, you might be interested in this article by Paul Chefurka, where he defines overshoot, carrying capacity and other ecological concepts.  He then reviews 5 or so estimates of carrying capacity from various sources and discusses the relative merits of each:

http://www.paulchefurka.ca/Sustainability.html

In this next article, Mr. Chefurka uses 2 billion as a place holder for carrying capacity in order to discuss the dynamics of overshoot.  But as you see from the previous article, his subsequent conclusion is that CC is probably no more than 1 billion, and in all likelihood is a lot less. Anyway, this is an interesting read on overshoot:

http://www.paulchefurka.ca/CC_Overshoot.html

I found Paul Chefurka and Vaclav Smil - Professor Emeritus at U. of Manitoba via Nate Hagens. To those on this thread who are no longer grasping for denial talking points, I urge you to watch Nate Hagen's talk 'Blindspots and Superheroes'. The discussion of terrestrial vertebrate biomass is shocking. It starts about 19 minutes into his lecture, and is based off of data from Chefurka and Smil.

Relevant Smil publication.
« Last Edit: January 11, 2018, 06:51:57 AM by Malaysia41 »
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BookLoverL

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Re: Climate Change - A little more freaked out than normal
« Reply #88 on: January 11, 2018, 12:39:23 AM »
Regarding carrying capacity, you might be interested in this article by Paul Chefurka, where he defines overshoot, carrying capacity and other ecological concepts.  He then reviews 5 or so estimates of carrying capacity from various sources and discusses the relative merits of each:

http://www.paulchefurka.ca/Sustainability.html

In this next article, Mr. Chefurka uses 2 billion as a place holder for carrying capacity in order to discuss the dynamics of overshoot.  But as you see from the previous article, his subsequent conclusion is that CC is probably no more than 1 billion, and in all likelihood is a lot less. Anyway, this is an interesting read on overshoot:

http://www.paulchefurka.ca/CC_Overshoot.html

I found Paul Chefurka and Vaclav Smil - Professor Emeritus at U. of Manitoba via Nate Hagens. To those on this thread who are no longer grasping for denial talking points, I urge you to watch Nate Hagen's talk 'Blindspots and Superheroes'. The discussion of terrestrial vertebrate biomass is shocking (It starts around 19 minutes into his lecture and is based off of data from Chefurka and Smil).

Relevant Smil publication.

Excellent links, Malaysia41. If you want numbers, check out the Paul Chefurka article.
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former player

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Re: Climate Change - A little more freaked out than normal
« Reply #89 on: January 11, 2018, 01:54:43 AM »
Like Sol said, if you live in Bangladesh, which is routinely inundated by tropical cyclones anyway, it's probably time to gtfo if you can.  Don't think the government of Bangladesh is going to be able to do a lot about the problem.   For first world folks that are generally better positioned to survive, well, it's going to be an interesting hundred years.
Bangladesh has a population of 162 million (per capita income $4,000).  Where do you think 162 million people are going to go?  If they start buying ships and coming on to the shores of the USA in their tens of thousands are you going to man the machine guns?

I don't get this idea that the third world will suffer and die in place while the first world puts up a wall and lives happily behind it.  I don't think it's like that any more - see recent and current migration from the middle east and Africa across the Mediterranean.  Even oceans aren't enough insulation against billions of people whose lands are uninhabitable because of desertification and floods.
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Another Reader

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Re: Climate Change - A little more freaked out than normal
« Reply #90 on: January 11, 2018, 06:56:55 AM »

10,000 years ago San Francisco Bay was a dry grassy valley populated by elephants, zebras, and camels.

I shouldn't engage, but as a biologist, I can't help it. Anyone who claims zebras have ever lived in San Francisco is, to put it politely, not a reliable resource.

You, my friend, displayed some commendable restraint right there.

Make sure you get the quote correct, because I did not say that.  I quoted someone else to make a point.

It doesn't matter what lived in the Bay Area 15,000 years ago.  The sea level has varied significantly over time, relatively short periods of time from the geological perspective. Climate change has been going on since the planet was formed and will go on long after our species disappears.  At some point, the existing life will disappear, and unless conditions are not hospitable, some other forms of life will appear. 

We may have changed the trend or accelerated the existing direction.  Get over yourselves and realize there is not a whole lot you can do about it.  All the walking, cycling, and turning off the AC isn't going to accomplish a damn thing.  Unless governments see the threat, which they rarely do, especially when it threatens their interests, we are stuck with the trend.

I don't find the distinction between exactly who said it to be a meaningful one. By quoting such an unreliable source, it throws doubt on your other statements for me.

I'm glad you recognize the seriousness of climate change. I believe I mentioned upthread that the most impactful thing an individual could do is to use their voice to influence politicians and large businesses to reduce their carbon emissions.

I agree that life as it exists on earth will eventually disappear. Per se, I don't really think that the extinction of humanity is a big deal. However, I don't find it unreasonable to attempt to postpone that, both from a selfish perspective (I'm not that old, and am not excited about dealing with the repercussions of climate change over my lifetime), out of affection for the young children in my life, and out of an ethical sense that I should endeavor to reduce overall suffering during my lifetime. If you have a different perspective, that's your prerogative, though I'm not sure why you are contributing to this thread, given it started with:

To start--I know this has been a contentious topic on the forum.  I'm starting from the premise that climate change is real and caused by human activity.  If you don't believe that, ok.  This isn't the thread for you.

The facts are that 15,000 years ago, the sea level was 400 feet lower because of the ice age and all that water frozen in glaciers.  That's generally accepted as scientific fact.  Lots of animals, including camels but maybe not zebras (no zebra fossil relics) lived here.  I was not quoting this article because of zebras.  I was quoting it to put what's happening now in perspective.

In all probability, there will be major changes due to accelerated global warming.  Like Sol said, if you live in Bangladesh, which is routinely inundated by tropical cyclones anyway, it's probably time to gtfo if you can.  Don't think the government of Bangladesh is going to be able to do a lot about the problem.  For first world folks that are generally better positioned to survive, well, it's going to be an interesting hundred years.

... yes, I know the planet has undergone significant changes in both temperature and ocean level? I did a whole degree about it? yes, we are in for an ugly next few decades as the rate of change in temperature, weather, and ocean level moves at a speed unprecedented in the geological record? I'm not sure why you think the first world is any better positioned to survive climate change than anyone else, but ok. Maybe you are trying to say that climate change isn't a big deal because the planet used to be colder and there were glaciers? In which case, again:
To start--I know this has been a contentious topic on the forum.  I'm starting from the premise that climate change is real and caused by human activity.  If you don't believe that, ok.  This isn't the thread for you.

ok, I'm going to stop, because I literally have no idea what you are trying to communicate and I'm becoming very frustrated.

I thought I was pretty clear.  The climate will change.  Whether it's this series of events or something else, we are well beyond carrying capacity.  There is not enough interest by world governments to do anything.  Humans in places like Bangladesh will be wiped out, because there is no money and no place to move them.  Make your first world plans accordingly.

Dabnasty

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Re: Climate Change - A little more freaked out than normal
« Reply #91 on: January 11, 2018, 08:43:42 AM »

It doesn't matter what lived in the Bay Area 15,000 years ago.  The sea level has varied significantly over time, relatively short periods of time from the geological perspective. Climate change has been going on since the planet was formed and will go on long after our species disappears.  At some point, the existing life will disappear, and unless conditions are not hospitable, some other forms of life will appear. 

We may have changed the trend or accelerated the existing direction.  Get over yourselves and realize there is not a whole lot you can do about it.  All the walking, cycling, and turning off the AC isn't going to accomplish a damn thing.  Unless governments see the threat, which they rarely do, especially when it threatens their interests, we are stuck with the trend.

EVERY little thing counts, just like every little dollar counts towards achieving FI. Now I do understand that if our actions made a small enough difference it would be futile, but when the human race is the thing that is causing the damage it is not beyond our scope to make a change. Will it happen? Unfortunately I'm not optimistic but attitudes like yours are part of the reason why.

Regarding the bolded, yes, sea levels have changed over relatively short periods of time from the geological perspective. But now they are changing over extremely short periods of time.

You do not think anything in the past could have triggered sea level or climate change in extremely short periods of time? What about the Younger Dryas period? What caused that?

I'm not very familiar with that but according to the timeline on the last page it may have been due to changes in ocean circulation caused by melting ice sheets in North America. I haven't looked into it in depth yet but it looks like this mostly affected the northern hemisphere and was more of a shift from one part of the world to another than a rapid global cooling, the global effect was ~.5C over 1,000 years. The timeline also mentions that spikes like the one at the beginning of the Younger Dryas period may have been smoothed out based on the data used. That being said I wasn't aware that these events had happened over such short time scales so if that is all you were pointing out then you're right.

But if we're talking about how that relates to today, it doesn't. We have no evidence for the drastic climate change we're seeing that compares with the evidence we have that it is caused by human activities. Just based on probabilities what's the chance earth is experiencing something that rare shortly after we begin using fossil fuels to run our lives coupled with the fact that we have evidence that CO2 and other gases are causing a greenhouse effect?

« Last Edit: January 11, 2018, 09:24:21 AM by Dabnasty »

Dabnasty

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Re: Climate Change - A little more freaked out than normal
« Reply #92 on: January 11, 2018, 09:00:38 AM »


Make sure you get the quote correct, because I did not say that.  I quoted someone else to make a point.

It doesn't matter what lived in the Bay Area 15,000 years ago.  The sea level has varied significantly over time, relatively short periods of time from the geological perspective. Climate change has been going on since the planet was formed and will go on long after our species disappears.  At some point, the existing life will disappear, and unless conditions are not hospitable, some other forms of life will appear. 

We may have changed the trend or accelerated the existing direction.  Get over yourselves and realize there is not a whole lot you can do about it.  All the walking, cycling, and turning off the AC isn't going to accomplish a damn thing.  Unless governments see the threat, which they rarely do, especially when it threatens their interests, we are stuck with the trend.

I don't find the distinction between exactly who said it to be a meaningful one. By quoting such an unreliable source, it throws doubt on your other statements for me.

I'm glad you recognize the seriousness of climate change. I believe I mentioned upthread that the most impactful thing an individual could do is to use their voice to influence politicians and large businesses to reduce their carbon emissions.

I agree that life as it exists on earth will eventually disappear. Per se, I don't really think that the extinction of humanity is a big deal. However, I don't find it unreasonable to attempt to postpone that, both from a selfish perspective (I'm not that old, and am not excited about dealing with the repercussions of climate change over my lifetime), out of affection for the young children in my life, and out of an ethical sense that I should endeavor to reduce overall suffering during my lifetime. If you have a different perspective, that's your prerogative, though I'm not sure why you are contributing to this thread, given it started with:

To start--I know this has been a contentious topic on the forum.  I'm starting from the premise that climate change is real and caused by human activity.  If you don't believe that, ok.  This isn't the thread for you.

The facts are that 15,000 years ago, the sea level was 400 feet lower because of the ice age and all that water frozen in glaciers.  That's generally accepted as scientific fact.  Lots of animals, including camels but maybe not zebras (no zebra fossil relics) lived here.  I was not quoting this article because of zebras.  I was quoting it to put what's happening now in perspective.

In all probability, there will be major changes due to accelerated global warming.  Like Sol said, if you live in Bangladesh, which is routinely inundated by tropical cyclones anyway, it's probably time to gtfo if you can.  Don't think the government of Bangladesh is going to be able to do a lot about the problem.  For first world folks that are generally better positioned to survive, well, it's going to be an interesting hundred years.

... yes, I know the planet has undergone significant changes in both temperature and ocean level? I did a whole degree about it? yes, we are in for an ugly next few decades as the rate of change in temperature, weather, and ocean level moves at a speed unprecedented in the geological record? I'm not sure why you think the first world is any better positioned to survive climate change than anyone else, but ok. Maybe you are trying to say that climate change isn't a big deal because the planet used to be colder and there were glaciers? In which case, again:
To start--I know this has been a contentious topic on the forum.  I'm starting from the premise that climate change is real and caused by human activity.  If you don't believe that, ok.  This isn't the thread for you.

ok, I'm going to stop, because I literally have no idea what you are trying to communicate and I'm becoming very frustrated.

I thought I was pretty clear.  The climate will change.  Whether it's this series of events or something else, we are well beyond carrying capacity.  There is not enough interest by world governments to do anything.  Humans in places like Bangladesh will be wiped out, because there is no money and no place to move them.  Make your first world plans accordingly.

And don't forget your defeatist position of "there's nothing we can do about it so why bother"

Even if you've come to the conclusion that some bad things will happen regardless, do you also realize that after that things will continue to get worse? We talk about current coastal areas that will flood and islands that will be submerged but that's only because it is the most imminent threat.

sol

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Re: Climate Change - A little more freaked out than normal
« Reply #93 on: January 11, 2018, 09:04:02 AM »

What about the Younger Dryas period? What caused that?

Do you really not know the answer to this question?  Did you ask google?  Google knows, because millions of scientists all agree on the obvious answer. 

I wish climate deniers would do the bare minimum of fact checking before trying to use their own misunderstandings to convince people to believe in easily disproven theories.  As it turns out, Earth's climate is not some incomprehensibly complex mystery machine.  Greenhouse gas emissions really have changed the planet's energy balance.  The oceans and the atmosphere really are connected.  Temperatures really are rising at unprecedented rates. 

Why do people keep arguing that we don't know things that we do know?  Do they think it supports denialism to sow false doubt in the science?  Because that seems like the weakest possible argument, in that every semi-literate person can refute it.
sol will be totally offline for most of June 2018.  You cannot reach me.  You will not hear from me.  I am not dead, just away from civilization.

bacchi

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Re: Climate Change - A little more freaked out than normal
« Reply #94 on: January 11, 2018, 10:39:04 AM »

What about the Younger Dryas period? What caused that?

Do you really not know the answer to this question?  Did you ask google?  Google knows, because millions of scientists all agree on the obvious answer. 

I wish climate deniers would do the bare minimum of fact checking before trying to use their own misunderstandings to convince people to believe in easily disproven theories.  As it turns out, Earth's climate is not some incomprehensibly complex mystery machine.  Greenhouse gas emissions really have changed the planet's energy balance.  The oceans and the atmosphere really are connected.  Temperatures really are rising at unprecedented rates. 

Why do people keep arguing that we don't know things that we do know?  Do they think it supports denialism to sow false doubt in the science?  Because that seems like the weakest possible argument, in that every semi-literate person can refute it.

I have noticed that many CD will, in fact, not use google or click through to their source. An example is above, with the Snopes link. Just reading the abstract to the first "anti-AGW" study would make one suspect that maybe the "notricks" site is trying to get clicks from their gullible readers.

I've seen it before, too, when people quote wattsup and the study is saying the opposite of what wattsup claims. As in, the scientist is not a CD and the study supports AGW.

I'm not sure if critical thinking is in short supply or if (lifestyle) change is too scary, causing blindness to reality.

toganet

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Re: Climate Change - A little more freaked out than normal
« Reply #95 on: January 11, 2018, 10:42:08 AM »
I see denialism as a kind of second-order problem.  The deniers are in denial not of the fact of GW (or other issues) but resistant to the conclusions that follow from those facts.

Fact: Massive burning of fossil fuels (and use of refrigerants, industrial-scale cattle farming, et al) is impacting the climate in ways that will have drastic consequences that we can predict (in broad strokes) and do not prefer come to pass vs. other futures.
Conclusion: We should probably stop doing/change the way we do some of these things
Hence: People will have to change their habits, and may need to modify their lifestyle in response
Also: Deniers may need to admit they were wrong or may lose status, and that hurts

Similar reaction patterns emerge when discussing issues like income inequality, etc.  If one intuits that their circumstances may need to change for the worse in response to a problem, it's understandable they will look for ways to deny the change.

It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it. -- Upton Sinclair

maizeman

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Re: Climate Change - A little more freaked out than normal
« Reply #96 on: January 11, 2018, 10:50:42 AM »
I have noticed that many CD will, in fact, not use google or click through to their source. An example is above, with the Snopes link. Just reading the abstract to the first "anti-AGW" study would make one suspect that maybe the "notricks" site is trying to get clicks from their gullible readers.

I've seen it before, too, when people quote wattsup and the study is saying the opposite of what wattsup claims. As in, the scientist is not a CD and the study supports AGW.

I'm not sure if critical thinking is in short supply or if (lifestyle) change is too scary, causing blindness to reality.

This isn't unique to the human drive climate change issue. I've gotten in debates (both on this forum and elsewhere) where it is clear people are just plugging phrases into google scholar and pasting 3-4 links into their post with a "see! peer reviewed science proves it" without actually reading the articles at all. And sometimes not even reading the abstracts. I've even been accused of clearly having suspect motives because I was willing to keep reading through the studies people were posting to figure out what the actual results and conclusions were.

In some ways I see it as a success that even folks firmly in the denialism camp on a wide range of issues clearly still understand and acknowledge how important concepts like peer review and scientific consensus are, since they put so much work into trying to create the impression that peer reviewed science supports their positions, and spend a lot of time trying to create the impression that there isn't scientific consensus on issues where there is.

zoltani

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Re: Climate Change - A little more freaked out than normal
« Reply #97 on: January 11, 2018, 10:53:03 AM »

What about the Younger Dryas period? What caused that?

Do you really not know the answer to this question?  Did you ask google?  Google knows, because millions of scientists all agree on the obvious answer. 

I wish climate deniers would do the bare minimum of fact checking before trying to use their own misunderstandings to convince people to believe in easily disproven theories.  As it turns out, Earth's climate is not some incomprehensibly complex mystery machine.  Greenhouse gas emissions really have changed the planet's energy balance.  The oceans and the atmosphere really are connected.  Temperatures really are rising at unprecedented rates. 

Why do people keep arguing that we don't know things that we do know?  Do they think it supports denialism to sow false doubt in the science?  Because that seems like the weakest possible argument, in that every semi-literate person can refute it.

Actually I am not a CD, but you cannot state that climate has not change extremely rapidly in the past, it is not factually accurate.

Millions of scientists agree on the cause of the Younger Dryas? That would be news to me, as far as I understood it is still highly debated.

From NOAA:
Scientists have hypothesized that, just prior to the Younger Dryas, meltwater fluxes were rerouted from the Mississippi River to the St. Lawrence River. Geochemical evidence from ocean sediment cores supports this idea (Carlson et al. 2007 (link is external)),

From Columbia University:
This is a touchy subject that is currently the focus of much research. One explanation is the one involving a thermohaline circulation (THC) shutdown, triggered by a catastrophic discharge of freshwater from Lake Agassiz (figure 2). The consequence is a rapid reduction in northward ocean heat transports, leading to an abrupt cooling over Northern Europe and North America.

A problem with this hypothesis is the timing of meltwater pulses that are supposed to have triggered the THC shutdown: it was found that a second meltwater pulse, albeit slightly smaller than the first one, occurred at the end of the YD (Fairbanks, 1989): why didn't it also trigger a similar chain of consequences in the climate system?

An alternate explanation (Clement et al., 2001) invokes the abrupt cessation in the El Nino -Southern Oscillation in response to changes in the orbital parameters of the Earth, although how such a change would impact regions away from the Tropics remains to be explained.

The respective merits of both hypotheses have been laid out by Broecker (2003). The issue is far from being settled, and actively researched at Lamont and elsewhere.


Please tell me how millions of scientists agree on the "obvious" answer!
« Last Edit: January 11, 2018, 11:07:43 AM by zoltani »

Another Reader

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Re: Climate Change - A little more freaked out than normal
« Reply #98 on: January 11, 2018, 10:55:54 AM »
I see denialism as a kind of second-order problem.  The deniers are in denial not of the fact of GW (or other issues) but resistant to the conclusions that follow from those facts.

Fact: Massive burning of fossil fuels (and use of refrigerants, industrial-scale cattle farming, et al) is impacting the climate in ways that will have drastic consequences that we can predict (in broad strokes) and do not prefer come to pass vs. other futures.
Conclusion: We should probably stop doing/change the way we do some of these things
Hence: People will have to change their habits, and may need to modify their lifestyle in response
Also: Deniers may need to admit they were wrong or may lose status, and that hurts

Similar reaction patterns emerge when discussing issues like income inequality, etc.  If one intuits that their circumstances may need to change for the worse in response to a problem, it's understandable they will look for ways to deny the change.

It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it. -- Upton Sinclair

Well, I'm FIRE and my salary does not depend on any understanding.  I'm not resistant to change, in fact, I'm fairly low on the consumption scale.  I would not be on this site unless I thought there was a lot of silly, useless, and downright dangerous consumption out there.  I'm older than most folks here, so I'm probably going to live out my life with minimal disruption and hardship, no matter what happens.

These are fine generalities you state.  Seeing this is the MMM forum, which is not generally prone to exclusionary circle jerks, what are you going to do about the larger problems that really are outside your circle of control?    What specific actions are you taking that will alter the ways in which seven billion people live to solve the problem?  How are you going to FEED those 7 billion people without industrial scale agriculture?

Dabnasty

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Re: Climate Change - A little more freaked out than normal
« Reply #99 on: January 11, 2018, 12:19:17 PM »
I see denialism as a kind of second-order problem.  The deniers are in denial not of the fact of GW (or other issues) but resistant to the conclusions that follow from those facts.

Fact: Massive burning of fossil fuels (and use of refrigerants, industrial-scale cattle farming, et al) is impacting the climate in ways that will have drastic consequences that we can predict (in broad strokes) and do not prefer come to pass vs. other futures.
Conclusion: We should probably stop doing/change the way we do some of these things
Hence: People will have to change their habits, and may need to modify their lifestyle in response
Also: Deniers may need to admit they were wrong or may lose status, and that hurts

Similar reaction patterns emerge when discussing issues like income inequality, etc.  If one intuits that their circumstances may need to change for the worse in response to a problem, it's understandable they will look for ways to deny the change.

It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it. -- Upton Sinclair

Well, I'm FIRE and my salary does not depend on any understanding.  I'm not resistant to change, in fact, I'm fairly low on the consumption scale.  I would not be on this site unless I thought there was a lot of silly, useless, and downright dangerous consumption out there.  I'm older than most folks here, so I'm probably going to live out my life with minimal disruption and hardship, no matter what happens.

These are fine generalities you state.  Seeing this is the MMM forum, which is not generally prone to exclusionary circle jerks, what are you going to do about the larger problems that really are outside your circle of control?    What specific actions are you taking that will alter the ways in which seven billion people live to solve the problem?  How are you going to FEED those 7 billion people without industrial scale agriculture?
First, the quote literally says salary but it could also be applied to someone's consumption and travel habits, anything you don't want to give up. Is there something you don't want to give up that emits greenhouse gases? I would say there's at least a few things that fit this description for all of us.
Second, they may be generalities but they aren't pointing to anyone but those who are in denial because they are better off if the thing they deny isn't true. I think this makes perfect sense and isn't meant to exclude anyone.

The problems outside of our circle of control, I suppose we do nothing, if they truly are outside of it. But carbon emissions and other pollution is not outside of our control. It may feel that way because we a small and insignificant relative to the earth but if you believe you have no impact at all you're allowing your emotions (feelings of smallness) outweigh your critical thinking. Mathematically, your actions do matter.