Author Topic: Census 2020  (Read 2157 times)

BlueHouse

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Census 2020
« on: April 03, 2018, 01:21:00 PM »
So the Trump Administration plans to put a question about citizenship in the 2020 census.  And as of today, 17 states are suing to keep that from happening. 

Some sources say that the only legally required answer is the first question :  How many people reside in the home?   Michele Bachmann famously only answered one question. 
So my question is: if we believe that so many households will be scared away due to the citizenship question, why aren't they just encouraged not to answer any questions they don't want to?   Leave the citizenship question blank?

Any comments on this?  I'd also be interested in hearing if you plan to answer some or all of the questions. 


bacchi

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Re: Census 2020
« Reply #1 on: April 03, 2018, 01:28:50 PM »
Unfortunately, this makes the census more of a political football.

Will people who skip the citizenship question not get counted? So, in effect, leaving it blank makes you become a "non-citizen" for determining representation? Does this mean that liberals in Red states can leave the question blank and reduce their state's Congressional House numbers?

I should add that many illegals avoid answering the census altogether. When I did work for the census in college, it was a hassle to get people in certain ethnic neighborhoods to answer or even come to the door ("I'm from the government and I'm here to help!"). This question may not change much at all.

LifeHappens

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Re: Census 2020
« Reply #2 on: April 03, 2018, 01:43:44 PM »
So the Donald Administration plans to put a question about citizenship in the 2020 census.  And as of today, 17 states are suing to keep that from happening. 

Some sources say that the only legally required answer is the first question :  How many people reside in the home?   Michele Bachmann famously only answered one question. 
So my question is: if we believe that so many households will be scared away due to the citizenship question, why aren't they just encouraged not to answer any questions they don't want to?   Leave the citizenship question blank?

Any comments on this?  I'd also be interested in hearing if you plan to answer some or all of the questions.
The Census and the American Community Survey are used for 1000s of decisions made at the local, state and federal levels every year. The data is absolutely essential for academic and policy researchers, land use planning, transportation, public health services... I could go on for days.

While I certainly don't want anyone getting deported because they filled out a census form, encouraging everyone to only answer the first question will cripple decision making for years.

PoutineLover

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Re: Census 2020
« Reply #3 on: April 03, 2018, 01:57:08 PM »
Learn from Canada: Our census was changed from mandatory to voluntary a few years ago because our conservative government decided that it was too much of an intrusion of privacy. Luckily it was reinstated when the next government formed, but we have a blip in our data that can never be fixed. The census is super important and it has to be well designed, ideally by an arms length office that is not subject to political whims.

sui generis

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Re: Census 2020
« Reply #4 on: April 03, 2018, 02:09:09 PM »

While I certainly don't want anyone getting deported because they filled out a census form, encouraging everyone to only answer the first question will cripple decision making for years.

This is a tough one since we now know that the census bureau released data about Japanese-Americans to further their internment during WWII, despite confidentiality provisions.  I mean, supposedly the protections are better now, etc etc, but how are we supposed to believe Republicans or Trump?

I agree that we need as much good census data as possible and have heard the idea floated that we should do as much to confound just the citizenship question as we can by encouraging people to not answer just that one.  I haven't heard a full debate on the merits, pro and con, but that, coupled with a robust effort to encourage people not to shy away from the census and that a broader community of people will not answer that question, giving them protection in numbers, is the current idea I've heard to preserve as much integrity as possible in the sad situation we are in.

simonsez

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Re: Census 2020
« Reply #5 on: April 03, 2018, 03:53:30 PM »
While I certainly don't want anyone getting deported because they filled out a census form, encouraging everyone to only answer the first question will cripple decision making for years.
It is illegal for the Census Bureau to act (or let other government agencies act) as a result of what was filled out on a survey/census.  Of course, it was hard enough to convince the disenfranchised/minorities/illiterate/homeless/etc. of this in the past when there was not a citizenship question on prior decennial censuses.  Add in the irony that those who need federal funding to come to their states the most are the ones least likely to fill it out and thus, reduce the amount their state receives.  Anyway...

This question will result in millions and millions of extra taxpayer dollars being spent due to lower response (which, response rates for federal surveys has already suffered a great deal the last two decades).  Ignoring the internet option (which will be a reality for most of the 2020 households), it is very cheap (relatively) to send a survey/census in the mail, have it filled out the first time, and placed back in the mail.  It is still cheap to send multiple paper surveys/censuses if there no response.  It is expensive to hire, train, purchase laptops, and send a person door to door.  It is expensive to hire phone operators, train them, and rent a building from which they can operate.  These expensive people are hired after there is no luck with the repeated mailings.  There will be a lot of non-response.

I like the idea in theory, knowing what our citizenship percentage is in a non-political way, but it shouldn't go on the decennial - at least not until it becomes a normalized question elsewhere (if it ever does) - AND it won't ever be non-political in reality.  I say try it out on ACS or CPS, NHES, AHS, CE etc. first or even as a standalone pilot study IF the powers at be feel it is necessary to have this asked.  See how awful/well it does and go from there.  Also, I think one of the aforementioned surveys would be plenty statistically strong enough to extrapolate/infer for the U.S. population with an acceptable margin of error. 

My advice is don't touch the decennial, keep it short and sweet and the response as high as possible while mitigating respondent burden so we can dole out taxpayer money to the states and divvy up the number of seats for the House of Reps as efficiently as possible.  There will always be ways to improve what is an "efficient use of taxpayer money" but I don't think adding the citizenship question to the decennial census is one of them.

BlueHouse

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Re: Census 2020
« Reply #6 on: April 04, 2018, 08:20:33 AM »
Learn from Canada: Our census was changed from mandatory to voluntary a few years ago because our conservative government decided that it was too much of an intrusion of privacy. Luckily it was reinstated when the next government formed, but we have a blip in our data that can never be fixed. The census is super important and it has to be well designed, ideally by an arms length office that is not subject to political whims.

I didn't know this fascinating fact.  Thanks!

Cokie Roberts happened to be on NPR this morning answering this and other questions about the census and she said that yes, it is in fact illegal to [edit: NOT] answer ALL of the questions (despite the fact that the constitution only requires a count). 

Thanks everyone for your replies. 
« Last Edit: April 04, 2018, 12:07:28 PM by BlueHouse »

NoStacheOhio

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Re: Census 2020
« Reply #7 on: April 04, 2018, 08:26:58 AM »

Cokie Roberts happened to be on NPR this morning answering this and other questions about the census and she said that yes, it is in fact illegal to answer ALL of the questions (despite the fact that the constitution only requires a count). 


Did you mean it's illegal not to answer all the questions?

corcoran

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Re: Census 2020
« Reply #8 on: April 04, 2018, 08:45:40 AM »
The 1900 census had "Nativity" or Place of birth (state, or country) for the individual person and their mother and father.
The 1910 census had the same thing
1920, same thing, they added what language they primarily spoke "mother tongue" for those foreign born.
1930 had the same.
1940 removed this.
I haven't had any need to look at 1950 or beyond.

A simple google search for "Census Nativity" reveals the following report: https://www.census.gov/prod/2010pubs/acsbr09-16.pdf

Doesn't seem too attached to one party or another, why is it being attributed to partisan politics now?
Maybe a low information diet is in order here. Consuming noise.




Kris

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Re: Census 2020
« Reply #9 on: April 04, 2018, 09:09:08 AM »
The 1900 census had "Nativity" or Place of birth (state, or country) for the individual person and their mother and father.
The 1910 census had the same thing
1920, same thing, they added what language they primarily spoke "mother tongue" for those foreign born.
1930 had the same.
1940 removed this.
I haven't had any need to look at 1950 or beyond.

A simple google search for "Census Nativity" reveals the following report: https://www.census.gov/prod/2010pubs/acsbr09-16.pdf

Doesn't seem too attached to one party or another, why is it being attributed to partisan politics now?
Maybe a low information diet is in order here. Consuming noise.

Nativity and citizenship are two different things.

corcoran

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Re: Census 2020
« Reply #10 on: April 04, 2018, 10:00:38 AM »

Nativity and citizenship are two different things.

I understand that, and I dislike the idea of the census in general for privacy reasons. The PDF from 2009 I spent 2 seconds to find was able to collate nativity and citizenship. On the other hand, since we're already taking peoples money and distributing it where the government sees fit, it's a good idea to know where it's needed proportionally, and for what reason.
I'm only saying there is a lot of needless worrying, in part due to fulfilling a partisan storyline.

thd7t

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Re: Census 2020
« Reply #11 on: April 04, 2018, 10:10:26 AM »
The decennial census is enshrined in the Constitution.  However, the Constitution only requires a count of people living in the country.  Probably every additional question is in some way political.

BlueHouse

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Re: Census 2020
« Reply #12 on: April 04, 2018, 12:05:24 PM »

Cokie Roberts happened to be on NPR this morning answering this and other questions about the census and she said that yes, it is in fact illegal to [edit: NOT] answer ALL of the questions (despite the fact that the constitution only requires a count). 


Did you mean it's illegal not to answer all the questions?

Yes!  Thank you! 

alanB

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Re: Census 2020
« Reply #13 on: April 04, 2018, 12:46:43 PM »

Nativity and citizenship are two different things.

I understand that, and I dislike the idea of the census in general for privacy reasons. The PDF from 2009 I spent 2 seconds to find was able to collate nativity and citizenship. On the other hand, since we're already taking peoples money and distributing it where the government sees fit, it's a good idea to know where it's needed proportionally, and for what reason.
I'm only saying there is a lot of needless worrying, in part due to fulfilling a partisan storyline.

Which aspect are you hoping to keep private from the government?  Sex, age, race, address, phone number?  Those are all of the questions from what I remember.  Nothing really consequential.  I guess you could have a secret baby?