Author Topic: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election  (Read 31814 times)

scottish

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Re: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election
« Reply #200 on: October 08, 2019, 06:09:54 PM »
The thing with Bernier is that he just missed being the conservative party leader by a hair.   As Trudeau said:

"Mr Bernier, it appears your role here tonight is to publicly say the things that Mr Scheer thinks privately."

I wonder how much of the conservative party agrees with Bernier?

I was disappointed with Scheer's answer to the very first question:  How would you represent Canada on the international stage?

He answered that Trudeau was a phony who doesn't deserve to be in power.   Hell of a way to start a debate.

RetiredAt63

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Re: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election
« Reply #201 on: October 08, 2019, 06:30:19 PM »
The thing with Bernier is that he just missed being the conservative party leader by a hair.   As Trudeau said:

"Mr Bernier, it appears your role here tonight is to publicly say the things that Mr Scheer thinks privately."

I wonder how much of the conservative party agrees with Bernier?

I was disappointed with Scheer's answer to the very first question:  How would you represent Canada on the international stage?

He answered that Trudeau was a phony who doesn't deserve to be in power.   Hell of a way to start a debate.

And that is an important question.  We have issues with the US re trade, and they suckered us with that Chinese extradition so now we don't have good relations with China, and there is still everything in the middle east, and . . .and . . .   Canada has not been historically isolationist the way the US has been isolationist, we got dragged into things as a colony and then as a member of the Commonwealth.

I was pleased at the beginning of the Trudeau government that they brought back the mandatory long form census, and their most recent environmental legislation undid most (not all) of the harm the Conservatives did there legislatively.  But they failed on the electoral reform.  I think Trudeau really needed more time as an MP before becoming leader of the party.  Plus I probably had more experience running a department and staffing and budgeting and setting goals and getting people to work together as department chair over many years than he did as a drama teacher - but then he has all the background of his family and I am about as middle class as they come.  Which is why I get to sit here commenting instead of being in the thick of it!  ;-)

Re the Conservatives, as far as I can tell they are basically Reform under a new name.  Socially conservative (really conservative) and financially nice to the rich and lets make it hard for the feds to do things by cutting taxes.

Um, I was told once that as I got older I would become more conservative and more religious - I am wondering at what age this is supposed to kick in, because neither has happened yet.

G-dog

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Re: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election
« Reply #202 on: October 08, 2019, 06:33:10 PM »
Quote
I was told once that as I got older I would become more conservative and more religious - I am wondering at what age this is supposed to kick in, because neither has happened yet.

Yeah, me neither. Shrug.

RetiredAt63

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Re: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election
« Reply #203 on: October 08, 2019, 07:07:04 PM »
Quote
I was told once that as I got older I would become more conservative and more religious - I am wondering at what age this is supposed to kick in, because neither has happened yet.

Yeah, me neither. Shrug.

We're just rebels, I guess.   ;-)

G-dog

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Re: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election
« Reply #204 on: October 08, 2019, 07:33:39 PM »
Quote
I was told once that as I got older I would become more conservative and more religious - I am wondering at what age this is supposed to kick in, because neither has happened yet.

Yeah, me neither. Shrug.

We're just rebels, I guess.   ;-)

Thelma & Louise - now to find our Brad Pitt!

Wrenchturner

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Re: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election
« Reply #205 on: October 08, 2019, 08:48:26 PM »
The thing with Bernier is that he just missed being the conservative party leader by a hair.   As Trudeau said:

"Mr Bernier, it appears your role here tonight is to publicly say the things that Mr Scheer thinks privately."

I wonder how much of the conservative party agrees with Bernier?

I was disappointed with Scheer's answer to the very first question:  How would you represent Canada on the international stage?

He answered that Trudeau was a phony who doesn't deserve to be in power.   Hell of a way to start a debate.

The irony is that if Scheer took the stance Bernier did on issues like immigration, he would probably win handily.

RetiredAt63

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Re: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election
« Reply #206 on: October 09, 2019, 05:23:53 AM »
The thing with Bernier is that he just missed being the conservative party leader by a hair.   As Trudeau said:

"Mr Bernier, it appears your role here tonight is to publicly say the things that Mr Scheer thinks privately."

I wonder how much of the conservative party agrees with Bernier?

I was disappointed with Scheer's answer to the very first question:  How would you represent Canada on the international stage?

He answered that Trudeau was a phony who doesn't deserve to be in power.   Hell of a way to start a debate.

The irony is that if Scheer took the stance Bernier did on issues like immigration, he would probably win handily.

It is one clear difference between them. It will be interesting to see if it sends voters to Bernier.

Wrenchturner

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Re: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election
« Reply #207 on: October 09, 2019, 07:00:22 AM »
The thing with Bernier is that he just missed being the conservative party leader by a hair.   As Trudeau said:

"Mr Bernier, it appears your role here tonight is to publicly say the things that Mr Scheer thinks privately."

I wonder how much of the conservative party agrees with Bernier?

I was disappointed with Scheer's answer to the very first question:  How would you represent Canada on the international stage?

He answered that Trudeau was a phony who doesn't deserve to be in power.   Hell of a way to start a debate.

The irony is that if Scheer took the stance Bernier did on issues like immigration, he would probably win handily.

It is one clear difference between them. It will be interesting to see if it sends voters to Bernier.

This is just my speculation but I suspect most PPC voters are otherwise CPC voters who don't support high immigration.

And before anyone calls me a fear-mongerer:

From June:
https://globalnews.ca/news/5397306/canada-immigration-poll/
"Sixty-three per cent of respondents to a recent Leger poll said the government should prioritize limiting immigration levels because the country might be reaching a limit in its ability to integrate them."


From the Angus Reid poll a couple days ago:

"More than half of Canadians (56%) say the Liberal government’s handling of border issues, particularly asylum seekers, has been too soft, more than twice the number who say they have handled the issue well (26%)

    A majority (62%) say immigrants should have to be able to speak one of Canada’s official languages when coming to the country, while 38 per cent say it is acceptable for them to learn while they settle

    Conservative voters are much more critical of the impact immigrants have on Canadian jobs than those who support the other major federal parties. Four-in-ten (41%) of those who plan to back the CPC in the election say too many Canadian jobs are being lost to newcomers, while fewer than one-in-five Liberal, Green and NDP supporters say the same, respectively"

I'll concede that this poll was more ambiguous around immigration specifically, "Of the 1,522 Canadians surveyed, 39 per cent said the target was at the right level while another 13 per cent said it should be higher.

Forty per cent said the target is too high and another 8 per cent said they weren’t sure."

And on top of this, the Green party has vowed to eliminate the TFW program.

So yes, mobility of non-citizens and their impact on the labor market, and social world are concerning to Canadians.

Does anyone think I'm mischaracterizing Bernier's position here as mostly framed around immigration?  Honest question, I don't know his platform too well but that's where I see him pulling votes.

rocketpj

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Re: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election
« Reply #208 on: October 09, 2019, 10:05:11 PM »
How do people resist throwing up when Bernier talks? Every time he talks, I cringe. MASS IMMIGRATION IS UNACCEPTABLE....

Seriously, we're all immigrants at some point. What's wrong with him?

Mainly due to the socialist welfare state.  Those that "immigrated" hundreds of years ago were settlers.  Many working class people do not like paying for entitlements for people that push their wages down.  See: Trump getting elected.

Except of course that almost every single item in what you said was wrong.

1.  Socialist welfare state is a myth. 
2.  1 in 5 Canadians were born somewhere else.  Most of us have at least one and probably more parents and grandparents born abroad.  My posh grannie coming from England in 1947 was not a 'settler', and that was 70 years ago. 
3. It has been shown many times that immigration boosts economic growth.  The vast, vast majority of immigrants work harder than the rest of us.

Wrenchturner

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Re: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election
« Reply #209 on: October 10, 2019, 07:11:03 AM »
How do people resist throwing up when Bernier talks? Every time he talks, I cringe. MASS IMMIGRATION IS UNACCEPTABLE....

Seriously, we're all immigrants at some point. What's wrong with him?

Mainly due to the socialist welfare state.  Those that "immigrated" hundreds of years ago were settlers.  Many working class people do not like paying for entitlements for people that push their wages down.  See: Trump getting elected.

Except of course that almost every single item in what you said was wrong.

1.  Socialist welfare state is a myth. 
2.  1 in 5 Canadians were born somewhere else.  Most of us have at least one and probably more parents and grandparents born abroad.  My posh grannie coming from England in 1947 was not a 'settler', and that was 70 years ago. 
3. It has been shown many times that immigration boosts economic growth.  The vast, vast majority of immigrants work harder than the rest of us.

How is #1 a myth?  Entitlements have grown enormously across generations, and economic migrants do exist. 

#2 You're probably right, but growth was plentiful and jobs were easy to come by.  Not so much anymore. 

#3 It has also been shown that immigrants largely are older than average Canadians, and they don't buy as much or create as much income as Canadians do.  So again, it's can-kicking at best.

https://globalnews.ca/news/5369168/immigration-employment-canada/
"The memo says the employment rate for immigrants aged 25 to 54 who landed less than five years ago, was 71 per cent last year. It was the indicator’s highest level since 2006 — which is as far back as the data goes."

https://business.financialpost.com/opinion/william-watson-we-now-know-how-well-trudeaus-syrian-refugees-are-doing-its-not-good
"For instance, if you look at the cohort of all immigrants who arrived in Canada in 2011, the median income five years on of those who did have wage and salary income was $28,800. Looking specifically at economic immigrants with earnings, they had median income of $40,400, while earners in the “Canadian experience class” — those who had spent time here on a different type of visa before formally immigrating — had five-year median income of $61,300.

Five years on, however, refugees from the class of 2011 had median earnings of only $21,500. Among those, government-assisted refugees were making just $16,200, while privately sponsored refugees were at $22,400. In their very first year of earning, these two groups had made just $6,900 and $18,900, respectively. So their median incomes had gone up. Just not very high."

There's also a whole wiki page on this.  See the attached chart from the article.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_impact_of_immigration_to_Canada#Wages
"In terms of the impact of immigration worldwide, Statistics Canada estimates that for every 10% increase in the population from immigration, wages in Canada are now reduced by 4% on average (with the greatest impact to more skilled workers, such as workers with post-graduate degrees whose wages are reduced by 7%)"

My objections are this:  States do practice protectionism like using their own currency, and having their own borders.  So some amount of protectionism is acceptable.  Countries and their governments exist for, and by, the benefit and expense of their citizens.

Large amounts of immigrants keep wages down which is not helping our debt loads.

Finally, no politician(save for Bernier) is giving voice to this issue, which I think is irresponsible of them.

Lews Therin

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Re: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election
« Reply #210 on: October 10, 2019, 07:25:43 AM »
Wrench. From your wikipedia page. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_impact_of_immigration_to_Canada#Wages

Long term outcomes
One of the most important studies of the economic impact of immigration to Canada is Morton Beiser's Strangers at the Gate. This study looked at the arrival of the Vietnamese boat people who began to arrive in Canada in 1979 to much controversy. The total number of refugees was 60,000, the largest single group of refugees to ever arrive in Canada. Beiser first studied the boat people upon their arrival, finding that few spoke English or French, that most were farmers with few skills useful in Canada, and that they had arrived with no assets with which to establish themselves. Beiser then followed the progress of the boat people to see what effect they would have on Canada. Within ten years of arrival the boat people had an unemployment rate 2.3% lower than the Canadian average. One in five had started a business, 99% had successfully applied to become Canadian citizens, and they were considerably less likely than average to receive some form of social assistance.[37][38]

Government finances
There is no consensus on the net impact of immigration to government finances. A 1990 study found that an average immigrant household paid $22,528 in all forms of taxes and on average each household directly consumed $10,558 in government services. By contrast an average native Canadian household paid $20,259 in tax and consumed $10,102 dollars in services. Across the country this means that immigrant households contributed $2.6 billion more than their share to the public purse.[52] A 1996 study found that over a lifetime a typical immigrant family will pay some forty thousand dollars more to the treasury than they will consume in services.[53] Explanations for this include that immigrant households tend to be larger, and have more wage earners, increasing taxes. Newcomers are also less likely to make use of many social services. Immigrants are less likely than native Canadians to receive employment insurance, social assistance, and subsidized housing.[54] Immigrants are also much less likely to become homeless or suffer from mental illness.[55] Recent immigrants are also less likely to make use of subsidized housing than native Canadians of the same income level. In 2004 22.5% of low-income native Canadians lived in subsidized housing, but only 20.4% of low income recent immigrants did so, though this number was considerably higher among more established immigrants.[56] Results from a study from the Fraser Institute found that the immigrants who arrived between 1987 and 2004 cost governments $23 billion per annum (as of 2006) in excess of taxes raised from those immigrants, relating to universal social services (e.g., welfare, medicare, public education).[8]

Cherry picking should be better targeted if you don't want someone to simply read lower and find points that counter your statements!

Note how Your own reference proves your comments to be misguided.

Wrenchturner

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Re: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election
« Reply #211 on: October 10, 2019, 09:52:21 AM »
I would call it "conflicting", actually.

The study from 1979 isn't particularly relevant today in our low growth environment.  And I'm not sure the section on receiving social assistance is an accurate reflection of today's situation either.

Most immigrants or refugees or migrants or tfws are being used politically and economically to keep wages down in Canada.  Our low gdp per capita and high debt loads are evidence of this.

I do not believe that systemic economic issues are resolved by increasing population.   This strategy simply requires a perpetually increasing immigration rate to sustain the economy which will eventually fail due to internal or external factors(delta between income and Debt, or lack of immigrants that exceed native performance, respectively).

I would like to see more wage growth in Canada and part of what creates that is a scarcity of labor.


Lews Therin

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Re: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election
« Reply #212 on: October 10, 2019, 09:55:20 AM »
How about the fact our birth rate isn't sustaining without immigration?

RetiredAt63

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Re: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election
« Reply #213 on: October 10, 2019, 10:34:37 AM »
Random election topics:

I will be a green voter this time - my polling station is in my apartment building.   ;-)   No driving, like every other single federal election I have voted in, except when I was a student and my polls were close. We meet masses of criteria for access, apparently - I am wondering if we are a polling station for non-residents too?  That would drive our security system a bit nuts.  But I am sure there are enough of us to fully keep one polling station busy, and our demographic group is really good at turning out to vote.

For those who want to make decisions based on party platforms, not who is good at sound bites, CBC has a good overview at:
https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/federal/2019/party-platforms/

Anyone up for watching the French language debate tonight?  With the Bloc doing well in Quebec polls, Blanchet will most likely be the main target this time.  Singh has to do well, the NDP needs to hold on to their Quebec seats.  A good Bloc result would also hurt Liberal and Conservatives, so Trudeau and Scheer will also have to do well.  Quebec prides itself on being a fairly Green province, so it will be interesting to see how well May does.

Wrenchturner

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Re: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election
« Reply #214 on: October 10, 2019, 01:23:45 PM »
How about the fact our birth rate isn't sustaining without immigration?

Whatever's causing a low birth rate won't be fixed with immigration.

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Re: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election
« Reply #215 on: October 10, 2019, 02:03:57 PM »
The low birth rate isn't a problem if there's enough immigration to fill the gap . . . so yes, immigration is a fix.

Lews Therin

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Re: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election
« Reply #216 on: October 10, 2019, 02:20:15 PM »
How about the fact our birth rate isn't sustaining without immigration?

Whatever's causing a low birth rate won't be fixed with immigration.

... I have no words.

Wrenchturner

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Re: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election
« Reply #217 on: October 10, 2019, 02:30:03 PM »
Canada has systemic economic issues that will not be solved simply by adding people.  I've said this several times.  And immigration has its own opportunity costs that I've spelled out in this thread.

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Re: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election
« Reply #218 on: October 10, 2019, 02:35:07 PM »
Canada has systemic economic issues that will not be solved simply by adding people.  I've said this several times.  And immigration has its own opportunity costs that I've spelled out in this thread.

Do you believe that a contracting population will improve these issues?

Wrenchturner

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Re: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election
« Reply #219 on: October 10, 2019, 02:44:30 PM »
I believe that less tax burden and entitlements would free up people to move, or have more children, and generally participate more freely in the economy.  It would also allow employers to have an easier time remaining competitive and help push wages up. 

We wouldn't need heavy social entitlements if there were more upward wage pressure.


GuitarStv

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Re: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election
« Reply #220 on: October 10, 2019, 02:59:02 PM »
I believe that less tax burden and entitlements would free up people to move, or have more children, and generally participate more freely in the economy.  It would also allow employers to have an easier time remaining competitive and help push wages up. 

We wouldn't need heavy social entitlements if there were more upward wage pressure.

We were talking about population, not taxation.  Immigrants coming to Canada have been shown to lessen tax burden.

I don't really follow your logic that a birth rate below replacement and a shrinking of the number of people in a country will lead to improved wages.  Can you provide some historical examples of this happening in a country the population of Canada?

RetiredAt63

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Re: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election
« Reply #221 on: October 10, 2019, 06:07:48 PM »
Scheer has 5!!!!!! Kids.

RetiredAt63

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Re: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election
« Reply #222 on: October 10, 2019, 06:15:10 PM »
Still in the French debate, so far much like Monday night but so far no talking over.  Lots of pipeline discussion.

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Re: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election
« Reply #223 on: October 10, 2019, 06:57:35 PM »
And now getting quite different. Even in the same general topics the specifics are different.  Of course the questions are building on Monday night's debate.

RetiredAt63

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Re: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election
« Reply #224 on: October 10, 2019, 07:54:31 PM »
We're past Bill 21 and onto SNC Lavalin.

One advantage of translation is the translators don't talk over each other.

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Re: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election
« Reply #225 on: October 10, 2019, 08:06:30 PM »
It's over, analysis now.  It was calmer. Scheer was stronger than in the TVA debate, Bernier was right in there, so was Blanchet, I think Singh and May were ok in French.  There was definitely more policy.

RetiredAt63

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Re: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election
« Reply #226 on: October 10, 2019, 08:07:10 PM »
Trudeay was a bit on the defensive at times.

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Re: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election
« Reply #227 on: October 10, 2019, 08:57:00 PM »
I believe that less tax burden and entitlements would free up people to move, or have more children, and generally participate more freely in the economy.  It would also allow employers to have an easier time remaining competitive and help push wages up. 

We wouldn't need heavy social entitlements if there were more upward wage pressure.

We were talking about population, not taxation.  Immigrants coming to Canada have been shown to lessen tax burden.

I don't really follow your logic that a birth rate below replacement and a shrinking of the number of people in a country will lead to improved wages.  Can you provide some historical examples of this happening in a country the population of Canada?

Immigrants may reduce tax burden in the short term but immigration doesn't fix problems, it just postpones them.

As for your second point, it is well known that scarcity of an item will drive up the price of said item.

LonerMatt

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Re: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election
« Reply #228 on: October 10, 2019, 09:17:02 PM »
That doesn't really play out in countries with shrinking populations and low immigration (Japan/SK for example). You get stagflation, rising cost of living and the (relatively smaller population) of younger working people over paying to sustain the (relatively larger) population of older people in need of care, etc.

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Re: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election
« Reply #229 on: October 10, 2019, 09:27:41 PM »
Wrenchturner, can you support your arguments? I'm not interested in spending time debating a straw man, but I do enjoy discussions when everyone involved is well informed and has done their homework. If you want to convincingly state that immigration is bad for Canada you need to bring credible sources and arguments.

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Re: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election
« Reply #230 on: October 11, 2019, 07:05:39 AM »
I believe that less tax burden and entitlements would free up people to move, or have more children, and generally participate more freely in the economy.  It would also allow employers to have an easier time remaining competitive and help push wages up. 

We wouldn't need heavy social entitlements if there were more upward wage pressure.

We were talking about population, not taxation.  Immigrants coming to Canada have been shown to lessen tax burden.

I don't really follow your logic that a birth rate below replacement and a shrinking of the number of people in a country will lead to improved wages.  Can you provide some historical examples of this happening in a country the population of Canada?

Immigrants may reduce tax burden in the short term but immigration doesn't fix problems, it just postpones them.

If you think that high level of taxation is a problem, immigration fixes the problem by lessening tax burden of other members of the country.  If you think that a declining population is a problem, immigration fixes the problem by increasing population.

What postponement of problems are you talking about?


As for your second point, it is well known that scarcity of an item will drive up the price of said item.

It was once 'well known' that there was no reason for surgeons to wash their hands before surgery.  That's why I was hoping that you had evidence to support your claims.  As has been mentioned, there are several cases in recent memory where the opposite of what you're claiming has held true.

Wrenchturner

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Re: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election
« Reply #231 on: October 11, 2019, 12:07:23 PM »
Wrenchturner, can you support your arguments? I'm not interested in spending time debating a straw man, but I do enjoy discussions when everyone involved is well informed and has done their homework. If you want to convincingly state that immigration is bad for Canada you need to bring credible sources and arguments.
You are welcome to reply to my points further up the page.

Wrenchturner

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Re: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election
« Reply #232 on: October 11, 2019, 12:09:54 PM »
I believe that less tax burden and entitlements would free up people to move, or have more children, and generally participate more freely in the economy.  It would also allow employers to have an easier time remaining competitive and help push wages up. 

We wouldn't need heavy social entitlements if there were more upward wage pressure.

We were talking about population, not taxation.  Immigrants coming to Canada have been shown to lessen tax burden.

I don't really follow your logic that a birth rate below replacement and a shrinking of the number of people in a country will lead to improved wages.  Can you provide some historical examples of this happening in a country the population of Canada?

Immigrants may reduce tax burden in the short term but immigration doesn't fix problems, it just postpones them.

If you think that high level of taxation is a problem, immigration fixes the problem by lessening tax burden of other members of the country.  If you think that a declining population is a problem, immigration fixes the problem by increasing population.

What postponement of problems are you talking about?


As for your second point, it is well known that scarcity of an item will drive up the price of said item.

It was once 'well known' that there was no reason for surgeons to wash their hands before surgery.  That's why I was hoping that you had evidence to support your claims.  As has been mentioned, there are several cases in recent memory where the opposite of what you're claiming has held true.

Increasing population doesn't decrease tax burden.  How would it?  The problems are large amounts of social entitlements.  Too much per capita for our gdp per capita.

GuitarStv

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Re: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election
« Reply #233 on: October 11, 2019, 12:21:13 PM »
On average, each immigrant family to Canada pays more in taxes (about twice more) than consumed from government benefits.  Therefore increasing immigrant population has the effect of reducing tax burden.

How are you arguing that immigration does the opposite?

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Re: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election
« Reply #234 on: October 11, 2019, 03:38:38 PM »
I'd like to see Wrenchturner's sources.  I went googling about immigration attitudes among Canadians, and found that most of the surveys are not clear about differentiating between immigrants and refugees.  They are two different categories, both in skills they bring to Canada and costs involved.

Bringing up something that was mentioned ages ago in other threads, Canada is now keeping very careful track of visitors who come in without visas.  We have implemented an "Electronic Travel Authority", which is like a mini-visa for non-visa countries.  Not only does it cut way down on visitors who get turned away at immigration, it means we can keep track of visitors and make sure they have left when they are supposed to.  I found out about this because I need the same thing for Australia and New Zealand.

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Re: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election
« Reply #235 on: October 11, 2019, 04:26:44 PM »

I completely understand the concerns about criminals immigrating to the country.   We have controls in place to prevent/minimize this.

We also try to admit people with a high skill level who can contribute instead of being a burden on our social support systems.

And we have an obvious demographic problem where baby boomers like me will be getting old in large numbers and it will be difficult for our existing health care, OAS, etc., to support us.   With our low birthrate, immigration seems like a useful solution.

So what is the problem with immigration?    Is it that objections to immigration are largely based on a fear of having a foreign culture take over our own culture, leaving us 'strangers in our own land'?   Every couple of years there will be a story about some group that wants to live under Sharia law, for example.   (I dunno why they want to live under Sharia law, but whatever.)

Maybe I should start a separate thread...


RetiredAt63

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Re: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election
« Reply #236 on: October 11, 2019, 04:30:19 PM »
Still on immigration,since it has definitely become part of the election issues - Canadian perceptions and reality do not match:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/immigration-disinformation-election-2019-poll-1.5316934

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Re: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election
« Reply #237 on: October 11, 2019, 05:37:25 PM »
On average, each immigrant family to Canada pays more in taxes (about twice more) than consumed from government benefits.  Therefore increasing immigrant population has the effect of reducing tax burden.

How are you arguing that immigration does the opposite?

You should be comparing this ratio to the ratio of native Canadians, rather than assuming that <1:1 is adequate.  Remember that consumption of benefits ramps up considerably with age.

I haven't seen many strong arguments in favor of immigration in this thread in an economic sense, other than the increase of consumption via the population growth that it creates.  But as I have said many times in this thread, increasing population does not increase standard of living or per-capita gdp, it simply attempts to sustain entitlement spending in the short-term, while increasing pressure on housing, infrastructure, and decreasing pressure on wage growth.  This is not a good thing.  But I didn't want to get too far into the weeds on this, and I ended up there anyway.

What I'm trying to point out here more generally is that:
Criticism of immigration or migrants or refugees is not racist, and
Most Canadians that oppose increased immigration are doing so on an economic basis, and
Making personal attacks against Bernier for proposing decreased immigration is really irresponsible.

I won't be following up much on this subject any further, since it's not really the point of this thread and because I think talking past one another is not a useful way to spend time.

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Re: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election
« Reply #238 on: October 11, 2019, 05:53:10 PM »
Since immigration is an election topic, and I do like evidence based decisions, here is the Ministry report to Parliament for last year.  I just found it, haven't read it yet, but I hope it does some analysis of costs and benefits.

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/publications-manuals/annual-report-parliament-immigration-2018/report.html

Not that this is the only election topic; there are certainly others we can discuss.

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Re: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election
« Reply #239 on: October 12, 2019, 10:14:24 AM »
It sounds like Wrench is concerned that immigrants enter the country and pay no "net taxes", rather they consume entitlements in excess of what they contribute.

How would you put numbers on this one?


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Re: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election
« Reply #240 on: October 12, 2019, 01:25:44 PM »
It sounds like Wrench is concerned that immigrants enter the country and pay no "net taxes", rather they consume entitlements in excess of what they contribute.

How would you put numbers on this one?

GuitarStv wrote "On average, each immigrant family to Canada pays more in taxes (about twice more) than consumed from government benefits.  Therefore increasing immigrant population has the effect of reducing tax burden."

@GuitarStv  Source?  That sounds like they pay net taxes.

This reminds me of something I heard Lowell Green say on CFRA many years ago - we shouldn't retire until our 70's because retirees don't contribute in taxes.  I had to laugh, because my parents definitely paid taxes as retirees, and I am sure paying taxes as a retiree.  For most people, if you are not paying taxes in retirement you most likely were not earning a lot of money and paying much in the way of taxes while you were working.  We know lots of retirees have good income and pay taxes, because if we were all poor there would be no OAS clawback.  And they deduct taxes at source from OAS if you made enough the previous year, so they make sure they get the taxes on it.    ;-)  Not that I am complaining, I am happy to be in clawback land.

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Re: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election
« Reply #241 on: October 12, 2019, 03:32:42 PM »
I voted. I feel good about my choice.

RetiredAt63

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Re: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election
« Reply #242 on: October 12, 2019, 04:40:19 PM »
I voted. I feel good about my choice.

Good for you. 

How was the weather?  Given the snow you have had.

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Re: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election
« Reply #243 on: October 12, 2019, 04:50:42 PM »
I voted. I feel good about my choice.

Good for you. 

How was the weather?  Given the snow you have had.

The snow is ankle deep or so, the slush is a pain, and there are trees and huge branches fallen all over the place. I imagine you saw this kind of situation after the ice storm out your way a few years ago.
Fortunately most of the city has power on again.

RetiredAt63

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Re: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election
« Reply #244 on: October 12, 2019, 04:58:59 PM »
I voted. I feel good about my choice.

Good for you. 

How was the weather?  Given the snow you have had.

The snow is ankle deep or so, the slush is a pain, and there are trees and huge branches fallen all over the place. I imagine you saw this kind of situation after the ice storm out your way a few years ago.
Fortunately most of the city has power on again.

Standard bad winter storm then.  "The Ice Storm" (the 1998 one  if that is what you are referring to) was a bit worse.    ;-)

RetiredAt63

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Re: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election
« Reply #245 on: October 12, 2019, 05:00:23 PM »
Interesting although short article.
 
https://www.nationalobserver.com/2019/10/02/analysis/will-andrew-scheer-ruin-canada

Final paragraph:
 Alain Denault, a sociologist at the Université de Moncton, explains that Canada has a “two-party system” whose ultimate purpose is to allow foreign and domestic corporations to extract the country’s raw resources. “The problem is that Canada, as such, has been governed like a colony since 1867,” says Denault. “This is the problem…The idea is that the Conservatives propose a brutal relationship to power and the Liberals a smiley one, while our regime remains the same — ​​​​a staple colony organizing the exploitation of raw materials by big corporations.”

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Re: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election
« Reply #247 on: October 14, 2019, 06:21:52 AM »
As a mustachian, I'm thoroughly disgusted with the choices. It seems every single party wants to pile on debt, and encourage policies that push the populous to do the same, despite already being amongst the most indebted in he world, and half are one paycheque from insolvancy. In certain places houses are some of the most unaffordable in the world where it takes more than 100% of average net income to buy an average abode, yet instead of letting the market correct naturally they want to encourage more of the same as if that will do anything other than let people bid up prices to even more ridiculous levels, putting people in the exact same position a couple years from now. Pretty much every single metric is beyond where the US was when it crashed, and deluded people literally saying "Toronto is basically another New York or London so it's reasonable" It's like when the US gave people $8k to buy a new car. The biggest beneficiary was the people selling cars.

None of the candidates really have a vision for a strong vibrant Canada. Instead it seems they just want to appeal to people's selfishness, dole out goodies borrowed from their own children's future, and hopefully grasp power. I'm definitely going to vote since I believe in the process, but there's a strong chance I'll spoil my ballot. I'm hoping for a minority gov't which falls quickly, most of the leaders get replaced, and we can have a do-over.

RetiredAt63

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Re: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election
« Reply #248 on: October 14, 2019, 06:54:11 AM »
As a mustachian, I'm thoroughly disgusted with the choices. It seems every single party wants to pile on debt, and encourage policies that push the populous to do the same, despite already being amongst the most indebted in he world, and half are one paycheque from insolvancy. In certain places houses are some of the most unaffordable in the world where it takes more than 100% of average net income to buy an average abode, yet instead of letting the market correct naturally they want to encourage more of the same as if that will do anything other than let people bid up prices to even more ridiculous levels, putting people in the exact same position a couple years from now. Pretty much every single metric is beyond where the US was when it crashed, and deluded people literally saying "Toronto is basically another New York or London so it's reasonable" It's like when the US gave people $8k to buy a new car. The biggest beneficiary was the people selling cars.

None of the candidates really have a vision for a strong vibrant Canada. Instead it seems they just want to appeal to people's selfishness, dole out goodies borrowed from their own children's future, and hopefully grasp power. I'm definitely going to vote since I believe in the process, but there's a strong chance I'll spoil my ballot. I'm hoping for a minority gov't which falls quickly, most of the leaders get replaced, and we can have a do-over.

Unfortunately mustachians are not the general population.  Plus Snacky had a good explanation upthread about why public spending doesn't run by the same guidelines as private spending.

In some elections we just have to vote against those parties whose policies we dislike the most, instead of those whose policies we like the most. 

I read somewhere that a spoiled ballot does not send any kind of message (except that you are too stupid or careless to mark your ballot properly), you might as well not vote.  The only way to tell all the parties that you don't like any of them is to go to the polling station, get your ballot, and then refuse it (the details may be wrong but this is the basic - @snacky, you know this stuff better, did I get this right?).  That gets recorded.  Or you could always vote Rhinoceros.

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Re: Canadian Politics - 2019 Election
« Reply #249 on: October 14, 2019, 08:16:31 AM »
I think you're right about refused ballots getting recorded. I can look it up later if it really matters.
But why would you do that? Unless a critical mass of people do it, your recorded refusal or unrecorded spoiling will be totally irrelevant to the election. You will be one of tens of people across the country who choose that particular method of protest, and no one will notice or care.

If you hate the options you have in elections, get politically involved. Be active in improving your country instead of just complaining that you don't like what's on the menu.