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Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?

Yay!
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Who cares? The SCOTUS doesn't matter anyways.

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GrayGhost

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #300 on: September 24, 2018, 05:49:47 PM »
Yeah, I understand that... one of the casualties of believing in the innocent until proven guilty principle is that quite a few people who are in fact guilty may not be convicted, and that sucks. I'd still rather have guilty people walk free than threaten the lives or liberties of those who are likely innocent.

I mean, I guess you could make one off exceptions, but I don't think the evidence in these Kavanaugh allegations are remotely similar to the OJ case (not that I'm familiar with that one as it was before my time).
Should there not be a different standard applied for appointment to a permanent office (SCOTUS) and taking away someone’s liberty (prison)?

They should be held to different standards of behavior, yes... the problem is, there is insufficient reason to believe the Kavanaugh acted in a way that ought to disbar him from public office.

Glenstache

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #301 on: September 24, 2018, 06:32:12 PM »
It seems that referring to himself (yep, his own words) as a "Renate Alumni" doesn't bode well for his character at the time.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/24/business/brett-kavanaugh-yearbook-renate.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur

article intro for the click-averse:
Quote
Brett Kavanaugh’s page in his high school yearbook offers a glimpse of the teenage years of the man who is now President Trump’s Supreme Court nominee: lots of football, plenty of drinking, parties at the beach. Among the reminiscences about sports and booze is a mysterious entry: “Renate Alumnius.”

The word “Renate” appears at least 14 times in Georgetown Preparatory School’s 1983 yearbook, on individuals’ pages and in a group photo of nine football players, including Judge Kavanaugh, who were described as the “Renate Alumni.” It is a reference to Renate Schroeder, then a student at a nearby Catholic girls’ school.

Two of Judge Kavanaugh’s classmates say the mentions of Renate were part of the football players’ unsubstantiated boasting about their conquests.

“They were very disrespectful, at least verbally, with Renate,” said Sean Hagan, a Georgetown Prep student at the time, referring to Judge Kavanaugh and his teammates. “I can’t express how disgusted I am with them, then and now.”

partgypsy

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #302 on: September 24, 2018, 07:48:26 PM »
I'm actually of 2 minds about him being a virgin. There was a guy in college who was the son of a pastor, and he drank and acted out a LOT, to the point it was a relief when he got a girlfriend. So it is entirely possible he did both things; attacked that 15 year old and exposed himself, yet was a virgin as well. It's not really a defense as far as I can see.
« Last Edit: September 24, 2018, 07:53:54 PM by partgypsy »

calimom

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #303 on: September 24, 2018, 08:02:12 PM »
As an interesing line of defense, he is claiming that he could not have possibly held down and forcibly groped Ford (or shoved his penis into Ramirez's face) because he was a virgin until "many years after college.
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/408172-kavanaugh-i-was-a-virgin-through-high-school-and-college

1. Loss of virginity is not what he is accused of.
2. Really?
3. Sure would be interesting if any of his ex girlfriends (or boyfriends?) cared to dispute this.
Old frat bros going out of their way to claim they didn't get laid in college, that may be the most bizarre thing I've read all year.

And plus, Kavanaugh has apparently produced his diary from 1982. Nowhere in it does he mention "I drunkenly date raped/had weird sex with a family friend against her will". So good of him to do this, clears it all up, right? Rigggght

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #304 on: September 24, 2018, 08:57:32 PM »
Back in the early 1980's there were no Sexual Assault and Prevention Awareness Centers for women college students to go to if they were sexually assaulted on college campuses.

The embarrassment and shame these assault survivors experienced certainly would have made it difficult for them to go to the police, authority figures, even to a parent who they might not have had a close relationship with. The assault survivors might have felt unwilling to go through a trial process that would bring up a whole set of new problems that at the age of 16 or 18 they might believe they would not understand how to navigate.  With no intelligent adult guidance or help, all these survivors had were their peers, who were equally clueless about what to do.

It's not surprising therefore that these assault survivors just had to somehow pick up the pieces of their life after an assault, and it may have taken them years to finally communicate what happened to them.

GrayGhost

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #305 on: September 24, 2018, 09:04:27 PM »
What do you think is the rough likelihood that the event either did not happen, or happen substantially different to the point that it should not be considered as a slight against Kavanaugh's character and fitness for office?


Glenstache

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #306 on: September 24, 2018, 09:34:50 PM »
What do you think is the rough likelihood that the event either did not happen, or happen substantially different to the point that it should not be considered as a slight against Kavanaugh's character and fitness for office?
12.9476673736586997747859677% All figures significant.
In other words, this is a pointless question. The point is that the allegations are credible enough to warrant further scrutiny unless people don’t think the actions in the allegations are disqualifying.

The way that these things proceed from here is we get additional information and the range of possibility narrows. Hopefully it will narrow adequately to allow a reasoned decision on if Kavanaugh is appropriate for the SCOTUS, where he will be ruling on things that are specific to women’s issues at some point. Thus far, the trajectory has been pretty decidedly against him.

Roadrunner53

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #307 on: September 25, 2018, 06:07:23 AM »
He said he concentrated on his studies, went to church and a virgin...BWAHHHHHHH!!!!  Yep, normal college kid that still has his 1982 calendar!

nereo

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #308 on: September 25, 2018, 06:33:56 AM »
Yeah, I understand that... one of the casualties of believing in the innocent until proven guilty principle is that quite a few people who are in fact guilty may not be convicted, and that sucks. I'd still rather have guilty people walk free than threaten the lives or liberties of those who are likely innocent.

I mean, I guess you could make one off exceptions, but I don't think the evidence in these Kavanaugh allegations are remotely similar to the OJ case (not that I'm familiar with that one as it was before my time).
Should there not be a different standard applied for appointment to a permanent office (SCOTUS) and taking away someone’s liberty (prison)?

They should be held to different standards of behavior, yes... the problem is, there is insufficient reason to believe the Kavanaugh acted in a way that ought to disbar him from public office.

Here's what I take issue with - should his nomination be withdrawn (either by himself or by DJT) Kavanaugh will remain a federally appointed judge on DC's circuit court of appeals, just as Merrick Garland currently is.  The question at hand isn't disbarment, but a lifetime promotion. Yes, disbarment would require a higher burden of proof (though it should be noted that one can be disbarred by the bar association even when the offense is not sufficient to put the person in jail).

El_Viajero

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #309 on: September 25, 2018, 06:38:33 AM »
Here's a question I have about this fiasco: Many crimes are inexcusable. Sexual assault is one of them. However, are we prepared, as a society, to hold your feet to the fire TODAY for an idiotic, harmful, dangerous thing you did when you were a stupid kid in your teens or early 20s? If so, a lot of us are going to be in serious trouble.

Take my best friend. In the past, he has operated a motor vehicle while under the influence of alcohol and/or drugs. I suspect some people on this forum have done so as well. He did this a number of times in his early 20s, when his judgement was relatively poor compared to today. He endangered the lives of members of his community, all for selfish reasons. It was stupid. It was reckless.

My point? Sexual assault and DUI both endanger people's lives and have the potential to cause trauma for victim-survivors Should my friend and, for that matter, all people who have caused motor vehicle accidents while under the influence of alcohol or drugs now be prevented from seeking certain employment opportunities because of those past indiscretions?

And before you scream "false equivalence," please explain how the short-term physical and long-term psychological trauma from sexual assault is uniformly more serious than trauma caused by a car accident that resulted in serious injuries, pain, and fear of one's imminent death.

Look, I'm no fan of Kavanaugh. I've long suspected that originalism, textualism, et al. are intellectually dubious, faux justifications for imposing far-right values on the populace, so I'd rather he never become a justice. I also find the man's probable alleged sexual indiscretions to be deplorable. However, just as my friend's past DUIs neither impact his ability to do his job nor create an unsafe environment for others TODAY, Kavanaugh's behavior in the decades-old incidents thus far described doesn't seem to have any bearing on his ability to serve on the Supreme Court.

Gin1984

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #310 on: September 25, 2018, 06:48:57 AM »
Here's a question I have about this fiasco: Many crimes are inexcusable. Sexual assault is one of them. However, are we prepared, as a society, to hold your feet to the fire TODAY for an idiotic, harmful, dangerous thing you did when you were a stupid kid in your teens or early 20s? If so, a lot of us are going to be in serious trouble.

Take my best friend. In the past, he has operated a motor vehicle while under the influence of alcohol and/or drugs. I suspect some people on this forum have done so as well. He did this a number of times in his early 20s, when his judgement was relatively poor compared to today. He endangered the lives of members of his community, all for selfish reasons. It was stupid. It was reckless.

My point? Sexual assault and DUI both endanger people's lives and have the potential to cause trauma for victim-survivors Should my friend and, for that matter, all people who have caused motor vehicle accidents while under the influence of alcohol or drugs now be prevented from seeking certain employment opportunities because of those past indiscretions?

And before you scream "false equivalence," please explain how the short-term physical and long-term psychological trauma from sexual assault is uniformly more serious than trauma caused by a car accident that resulted in serious injuries, pain, and fear of one's imminent death.

Look, I'm no fan of Kavanaugh. I've long suspected that originalism, textualism, et al. are intellectually dubious, faux justifications for imposing far-right values on the populace, so I'd rather he never become a justice. I also find the man's probable alleged sexual indiscretions to be deplorable. However, just as my friend's past DUIs neither impact his ability to do his job nor create an unsafe environment for others TODAY, Kavanaugh's behavior in the decades-old incidents thus far described doesn't seem to have any bearing on his ability to serve on the Supreme Court.
I am not going to go in how the trauma is different, however the idea that a person who raped many years ago is likely to have stopped is not supported by research.  Rapists repeat their rapes. 
See link https://davidlisak.com/wp-content/uploads/pdf/RepeatRapeinUndetectedRapists.pdf

Kris

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #311 on: September 25, 2018, 07:06:49 AM »
Here's a question I have about this fiasco: Many crimes are inexcusable. Sexual assault is one of them. However, are we prepared, as a society, to hold your feet to the fire TODAY for an idiotic, harmful, dangerous thing you did when you were a stupid kid in your teens or early 20s? If so, a lot of us are going to be in serious trouble.

Take my best friend. In the past, he has operated a motor vehicle while under the influence of alcohol and/or drugs. I suspect some people on this forum have done so as well. He did this a number of times in his early 20s, when his judgement was relatively poor compared to today. He endangered the lives of members of his community, all for selfish reasons. It was stupid. It was reckless.

My point? Sexual assault and DUI both endanger people's lives and have the potential to cause trauma for victim-survivors Should my friend and, for that matter, all people who have caused motor vehicle accidents while under the influence of alcohol or drugs now be prevented from seeking certain employment opportunities because of those past indiscretions?

And before you scream "false equivalence," please explain how the short-term physical and long-term psychological trauma from sexual assault is uniformly more serious than trauma caused by a car accident that resulted in serious injuries, pain, and fear of one's imminent death.

Look, I'm no fan of Kavanaugh. I've long suspected that originalism, textualism, et al. are intellectually dubious, faux justifications for imposing far-right values on the populace, so I'd rather he never become a justice. I also find the man's probable alleged sexual indiscretions to be deplorable. However, just as my friend's past DUIs neither impact his ability to do his job nor create an unsafe environment for others TODAY, Kavanaugh's behavior in the decades-old incidents thus far described doesn't seem to have any bearing on his ability to serve on the Supreme Court.
I am not going to go in how the trauma is different, however the idea that a person who raped many years ago is likely to have stopped is not supported by research.  Rapists repeat their rapes. 
See link https://davidlisak.com/wp-content/uploads/pdf/RepeatRapeinUndetectedRapists.pdf

Plus, in the examples you cite, El_Viajero, while it is quite true that many people do stupid and idiotic things in their teens and twenties, there is a distinction to be made. In the case of many of those examples, the person is exhibiting what you call "poor judgment," and likely has rationalized his stupidity as relatively harmless. ("It's not that far, I'm not that drunk," etc.) Essentially, the person doing the stupid thing is betting, however stupidly, that there will be no consequences that will harm anyone.

In the case of sexual assault, there is a deliberate decision to use another person for one's own gratification. A deliberate disregard of the other person's agency and humanity, in the pursuit of one's own desires.

This is something that is worth pointing out.
« Last Edit: September 25, 2018, 07:08:24 AM by Kris »

nereo

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #312 on: September 25, 2018, 07:08:23 AM »
Here's a question I have about this fiasco: Many crimes are inexcusable. Sexual assault is one of them. However, are we prepared, as a society, to hold your feet to the fire TODAY for an idiotic, harmful, dangerous thing you did when you were a stupid kid in your teens or early 20s? If so, a lot of us are going to be in serious trouble.


well here's a counter-argument - if a person did commit such a crime when they were a teenager and were never punished for it, never admitted wrong-doing, never made amends - are we going to effectively say they got away with it by running out the clock?

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #313 on: September 25, 2018, 07:16:55 AM »

It's four women now:

" additional allegations against him surfaced this weekend, from his time in college and in high school. Government investigators confirmed Monday they’re aware of a potential second sexual assault complaint in the county against former Georgetown Prep student and Supreme Court nominee Kavanaugh.
While investigators weren’t specific and spoke on background, they said they are looking at allegations made against Kavanaugh during his senior year in high school after an anonymous witness voluntarily came forward to speak with them this weekend.
This would potentially bring the number to four women accusing Kavanaugh of wrongdoing and comes after Deborah Ramirez, a former Yale college student, stepped forward this weekend to accuse Kavanaugh of exposing himself to her in college, and after attorney Michael Avenatti tweeted out a message saying he represents a woman with “credible information regarding Judge Kavanaugh and Mark Judge.” "

https://mont.thesentinel.com/2018/09/24/supreme-court-nominee-kavanaugh-faces-more-allegations/

Kris

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #314 on: September 25, 2018, 07:20:34 AM »
Then there is this, from his college roommate at Yale:

Brett Kavanuagh's college roommate says he believes Debbie Ramirez, who alleges the Supreme Court nominee sexually harassed her at Yale:

"[Kavanaugh] was a notably heavy drinker, even by the standards of the time, and he became aggressive and belligerent when he was very drunk ... Based on my time with Debbie, I believe her to be unusually honest and straightforward and I cannot imagine her making this up. Based on my time with Brett, I believe that he and his social circle were capable of the actions that Debbie described."

https://www.axios.com/brett-kavanaugh-college-roommate-believes-allegations-add8ad85-cc53-4e42-88e3-6a36398d6bb0.html?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=organic

driftwood

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #315 on: September 25, 2018, 07:22:45 AM »
Here's a question I have about this fiasco: Many crimes are inexcusable. Sexual assault is one of them. However, are we prepared, as a society, to hold your feet to the fire TODAY for an idiotic, harmful, dangerous thing you did when you were a stupid kid in your teens or early 20s? If so, a lot of us are going to be in serious trouble.

Take my best friend. In the past, he has operated a motor vehicle while under the influence of alcohol and/or drugs. I suspect some people on this forum have done so as well. He did this a number of times in his early 20s, when his judgement was relatively poor compared to today. He endangered the lives of members of his community, all for selfish reasons. It was stupid. It was reckless.

You'll need a better example. In the case of your friend, he broke a law, but there was no victim and no consequence. In the case of sexual assault, there was a victim. This is something he did to someone else, not just a bad decision made in a vacuum where there was no negative consequence.

Maybe a better hypothetical example would be someone beating up another student in college (assault & bullying). Do we hold that person accountable for the attack 30+ years later?

I think someone with this much shit attached to his history shouldn't hold a public office. But then again... as these assaults pop up we're finding out that a lot of people in power have done some shady shit. It looks like our system is set up so that they rise to the top - those who take advantage of others to increase their own personal power. 'Merica.

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #316 on: September 25, 2018, 07:54:28 AM »
Here's a question I have about this fiasco: Many crimes are inexcusable. Sexual assault is one of them. However, are we prepared, as a society, to hold your feet to the fire TODAY for an idiotic, harmful, dangerous thing you did when you were a stupid kid in your teens or early 20s? If so, a lot of us are going to be in serious trouble.

Take my best friend. In the past, he has operated a motor vehicle while under the influence of alcohol and/or drugs. I suspect some people on this forum have done so as well. He did this a number of times in his early 20s, when his judgement was relatively poor compared to today. He endangered the lives of members of his community, all for selfish reasons. It was stupid. It was reckless.

My point? Sexual assault and DUI both endanger people's lives and have the potential to cause trauma for victim-survivors Should my friend and, for that matter, all people who have caused motor vehicle accidents while under the influence of alcohol or drugs now be prevented from seeking certain employment opportunities because of those past indiscretions?


While Kavanaugh might no longer be committing sexual assaults now that he is in his early 50's, he continues to subjugate women to his own religious beliefs, like when he tried to deny a 16 year old who was in an immigration detention the lawful right to obtain the abortion she was seeking, by throwing up all kinds of procedural hurdles that would have delayed her from getting the abortion in time. This effort by Kavanaugh to stop the abortion is another way of controlling women in the way he wants.

Kris

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #317 on: September 25, 2018, 07:58:52 AM »
Here's a question I have about this fiasco: Many crimes are inexcusable. Sexual assault is one of them. However, are we prepared, as a society, to hold your feet to the fire TODAY for an idiotic, harmful, dangerous thing you did when you were a stupid kid in your teens or early 20s? If so, a lot of us are going to be in serious trouble.

Take my best friend. In the past, he has operated a motor vehicle while under the influence of alcohol and/or drugs. I suspect some people on this forum have done so as well. He did this a number of times in his early 20s, when his judgement was relatively poor compared to today. He endangered the lives of members of his community, all for selfish reasons. It was stupid. It was reckless.

My point? Sexual assault and DUI both endanger people's lives and have the potential to cause trauma for victim-survivors Should my friend and, for that matter, all people who have caused motor vehicle accidents while under the influence of alcohol or drugs now be prevented from seeking certain employment opportunities because of those past indiscretions?


While Kavanaugh might no longer be committing sexual assaults now that he is in his early 50's, he continues to subjugate women to his own religious beliefs, like when he tried to deny a 16 year old who was in an immigration detention the lawful right to obtain the abortion she was seeking, by throwing up all kinds of procedural hurdles that would have delayed her from getting the abortion in time. This effort by Kavanaugh to stop the abortion is another way of controlling women in the way he wants.

And, it's noteworthy that if he had succeeded in raping Christine Blasey Ford and she had gotten pregnant, she would have been months younger than that 16 year-old.

talltexan

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #318 on: September 25, 2018, 08:01:25 AM »
He said he concentrated on his studies, went to church and a virgin...BWAHHHHHHH!!!!  Yep, normal college kid that still has his 1982 calendar!

I don't think the virginity claim is about making a factual claim. I think it's about reminding Evangelical Christians that he's one of them, trying to double down on the tribalism that will make Republicans hold the line on him.

I agree that it's irrelevant to the Ford allegations.

JanetJackson

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #319 on: September 25, 2018, 08:11:38 AM »
Here's a question I have about this fiasco: Many crimes are inexcusable. Sexual assault is one of them. However, are we prepared, as a society, to hold your feet to the fire TODAY for an idiotic, harmful, dangerous thing you did when you were a stupid kid in your teens or early 20s? If so, a lot of us are going to be in serious trouble.

Take my best friend. In the past, he has operated a motor vehicle while under the influence of alcohol and/or drugs. I suspect some people on this forum have done so as well. He did this a number of times in his early 20s, when his judgement was relatively poor compared to today. He endangered the lives of members of his community, all for selfish reasons. It was stupid. It was reckless.

My point? Sexual assault and DUI both endanger people's lives and have the potential to cause trauma for victim-survivors Should my friend and, for that matter, all people who have caused motor vehicle accidents while under the influence of alcohol or drugs now be prevented from seeking certain employment opportunities because of those past indiscretions?


While Kavanaugh might no longer be committing sexual assaults now that he is in his early 50's, he continues to subjugate women to his own religious beliefs, like when he tried to deny a 16 year old who was in an immigration detention the lawful right to obtain the abortion she was seeking, by throwing up all kinds of procedural hurdles that would have delayed her from getting the abortion in time. This effort by Kavanaugh to stop the abortion is another way of controlling women in the way he wants.

YES, THIS.

Jrr85

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #320 on: September 25, 2018, 08:43:57 AM »
Here's a question I have about this fiasco: Many crimes are inexcusable. Sexual assault is one of them. However, are we prepared, as a society, to hold your feet to the fire TODAY for an idiotic, harmful, dangerous thing you did when you were a stupid kid in your teens or early 20s? If so, a lot of us are going to be in serious trouble.

Take my best friend. In the past, he has operated a motor vehicle while under the influence of alcohol and/or drugs. I suspect some people on this forum have done so as well. He did this a number of times in his early 20s, when his judgement was relatively poor compared to today. He endangered the lives of members of his community, all for selfish reasons. It was stupid. It was reckless.

My point? Sexual assault and DUI both endanger people's lives and have the potential to cause trauma for victim-survivors Should my friend and, for that matter, all people who have caused motor vehicle accidents while under the influence of alcohol or drugs now be prevented from seeking certain employment opportunities because of those past indiscretions?


While Kavanaugh might no longer be committing sexual assaults now that he is in his early 50's, he continues to subjugate women to his own religious beliefs, like when he tried to deny a 16 year old who was in an immigration detention the lawful right to obtain the abortion she was seeking, by throwing up all kinds of procedural hurdles that would have delayed her from getting the abortion in time. This effort by Kavanaugh to stop the abortion is another way of controlling women in the way he wants.

And this is the real issue people have with Kavanaugh.  Anybody that disagrees politically must be a likely rapist.  There are too few people who have the ability to recognize other people can disagree with respect to political issues without being monsters and too few people who see any value in the policital process or due process.  It's strictly a question of whether they think the ends justify the means.       


jezebel

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #321 on: September 25, 2018, 08:48:46 AM »
...
My point? Sexual assault and DUI both endanger people's lives and have the potential to cause trauma for victim-survivors Should my friend and, for that matter, all people who have caused motor vehicle accidents while under the influence of alcohol or drugs now be prevented from seeking certain employment opportunities because of those past indiscretions?

And before you scream "false equivalence," please explain how the short-term physical and long-term psychological trauma from sexual assault is uniformly more serious than trauma caused by a car accident that resulted in serious injuries, pain, and fear of one's imminent death.

One's personal feelings about your friend's criminal history is irrelevant.  In an ideal world, everyone's particular circumstances would be considered individually (which is of course actually happening in Kavanaugh's case).  Most employers don't have that luxury.  We don't even have to compare these two scenarios.  Any criminal conviction (DUI/DWI), especially one that resulted in physical injury or serious injury likely wouldn't get passed a first level government background check.  So yes, your friend would certainly be "prevented from seeking certain employment opportunities." 
« Last Edit: September 25, 2018, 08:51:17 AM by jezebel »

bacchi

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #322 on: September 25, 2018, 08:55:17 AM »
And this is the real issue people have with Kavanaugh.  Anybody that disagrees politically must be a likely rapist.  There are too few people who have the ability to recognize other people can disagree with respect to political issues without being monsters and too few people who see any value in the policital process or due process.  It's strictly a question of whether they think the ends justify the means.     

Gorusch didn't have any sexual assault accusers.

Wexler

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #323 on: September 25, 2018, 08:59:46 AM »
Here's a question I have about this fiasco: Many crimes are inexcusable. Sexual assault is one of them. However, are we prepared, as a society, to hold your feet to the fire TODAY for an idiotic, harmful, dangerous thing you did when you were a stupid kid in your teens or early 20s? If so, a lot of us are going to be in serious trouble.

Take my best friend. In the past, he has operated a motor vehicle while under the influence of alcohol and/or drugs. I suspect some people on this forum have done so as well. He did this a number of times in his early 20s, when his judgement was relatively poor compared to today. He endangered the lives of members of his community, all for selfish reasons. It was stupid. It was reckless.

My point? Sexual assault and DUI both endanger people's lives and have the potential to cause trauma for victim-survivors Should my friend and, for that matter, all people who have caused motor vehicle accidents while under the influence of alcohol or drugs now be prevented from seeking certain employment opportunities because of those past indiscretions?

And before you scream "false equivalence," please explain how the short-term physical and long-term psychological trauma from sexual assault is uniformly more serious than trauma caused by a car accident that resulted in serious injuries, pain, and fear of one's imminent death.

Look, I'm no fan of Kavanaugh. I've long suspected that originalism, textualism, et al. are intellectually dubious, faux justifications for imposing far-right values on the populace, so I'd rather he never become a justice. I also find the man's probable alleged sexual indiscretions to be deplorable. However, just as my friend's past DUIs neither impact his ability to do his job nor create an unsafe environment for others TODAY, Kavanaugh's behavior in the decades-old incidents thus far described doesn't seem to have any bearing on his ability to serve on the Supreme Court.

This is a job interview for a lifetime appointment to the highest court in the land.  We can at least hold him to the same standards he'd hold his own clerks to.  Supreme Court justices routinely dismiss resumes for not having the right school and not having the right clubs, let alone having sexual assault allegations pending.

By the way, for all of the screeching about the smear campaign against him, I only smell karma.  This dude spent years and millions of government money fanning the nonexistent flames of every sordid Hillary killed Vince Foster rumor he could find.  I'm sure he'd say he was only responsibly pursuing the truth.  Let's apply his own standards to him here.  If he can ask Vince Foster's grieving daughter for a hair sample based on internet swamp theories, then I think the Senate has more than enough evidence to request an FBI investigation. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/05/opinion/why-was-kavanaugh-obsessed-with-vince-foster.html



sol

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #324 on: September 25, 2018, 09:03:46 AM »
Here's a question I have about this fiasco: Many crimes are inexcusable. Sexual assault is one of them. However, are we prepared, as a society, to hold your feet to the fire TODAY for an idiotic, harmful, dangerous thing you did when you were a stupid kid in your teens or early 20s? If so, a lot of us are going to be in serious trouble.

Yes.  If that crime is sexual assault of a minor, that shit should absolutely haunt you for the rest of your life.  There are LOTS of jobs that don't hire people with criminal histories.  Why isn't "judge" one of those?  People with DUIs are already barred from jobs as commercial drivers, right?

Not only should this prevent him from being a SC judge, it should probably cost him his DC circuit job and possibly his marriage.  How would you feel if you found out your partner had a history of sexual assault in high school and college supported by at least four different victims, had totally gotten away with it without so much as an apology, and was now trying to become the voice of moral authority for an entire nation?  The hypocrisy of a sexual predator who is a literal judge handing out punishments to people who have committed lesser crimes is absolutely mind boggling to me.

This best case scenario here, in my mind, is that Kavanaugh gets woke.  He realizes that his behavior as a young man was absolutely unacceptable, he offers apologies to all of the women he touched or groped or imprisoned or exposed his junk to.  He claims to be a victim of his own times, who now recognizes that he had a serious drinking problem that caused him to behave in criminally reckless ways, and recommits himself to his faith and his family.  That scenario would at least let him keep his current job, because otherwise I think 70% of the country is going to be calling for his head.  He can't credibly be a DC circuit court judge AND an unrepentant sexual predator at the same time, can he?

I opposed Kavanaugh for the SC before we knew of his gross sexual history, just based on the fact that he's never attempted to be impartial when deciding issues relevant to the conservative base.  Why isn't his history of sexually inappropriate behavior relevant to the conservative base?

nereo

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #325 on: September 25, 2018, 09:07:04 AM »

And this is the real issue people have with Kavanaugh.  Anybody that disagrees politically must be a likely rapist.  There are too few people who have the ability to recognize other people can disagree with respect to political issues without being monsters and too few people who see any value in the policital process or due process.  It's strictly a question of whether they think the ends justify the means.     

You are making a false equivalency. There are a great number of people who I disagree with politically whom I have no reason to suspect are guilty of sexual misconduct.  At the same time there are people who's political views are in more in line with my own who are convicted criminals. One does not equate the other.

What I believe you are asserting here is that these allegations must be politically motivated because it is the opposition who wants them heard and investigated.  Here though we have a conflicting standard - those that support the nominee wish to vote on his confirmation 'without further delay' and without further inquiry. Do you see how that conflicts with your assertion?

Wexler

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #326 on: September 25, 2018, 09:09:27 AM »
He can't credibly be a DC circuit court judge US president AND an unrepentant sexual predator at the same time, can he?



We already know that republicans don't care.  Being a sexual predator makes him an alpha, so he'd fit right in the sexual domination humiliation politics favored by the republican base.   

nereo

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #327 on: September 25, 2018, 09:18:26 AM »

Not only should this prevent him from being a SC judge, it should probably cost him his DC circuit job and possibly his marriage.  How would you feel if you found out your partner had a history of sexual assault in high school and college supported by at least four different victims, had totally gotten away with it without so much as an apology, and was now trying to become the voice of moral authority for an entire nation? The hypocrisy of a sexual predator who is a literal judge handing out punishments to people who have committed lesser crimes is absolutely mind boggling to me.

...speaking of hypocrisy - Kavanaugh was part of Ken Starr's special council team. Helaine Olen writes:
Kavanaugh not only thought Clinton needed to be questioned about his relations with Lewinsky; he also wanted Clinton to be interrogated in the most detailed and specific way possible. He drew up a memo* with a series of 10 sexually explicit questions about Clinton’s relationship with Lewinsky. He claimed he wanted to establish Clinton had no defense for his “pattern of behavior.” As a result, “[the] idea of going easy on him at the questioning is thus abhorrent to me,” Kavanaugh wrote in the summer of 1998.

But, the Post reports: Kavanaugh grew frustrated when it came to questions that dug into his private life, particularly his drinking habits and his sexual proclivities. Later, on Fox News, Kavanaugh complained that inquires into his sexual life was deeply unfair and harmful to his wife and daughters.

* The memo Kavanaugh drafted for Clinton's deposition has some incredibly explicit questions, and is worth a read if only to see what he thought was appropriate to ask a sitting President then, vs what he finds inappropriate to ask now.

cats

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #328 on: September 25, 2018, 09:24:47 AM »

And this is the real issue people have with Kavanaugh.  Anybody that disagrees politically must be a likely rapist.  There are too few people who have the ability to recognize other people can disagree with respect to political issues without being monsters and too few people who see any value in the policital process or due process.  It's strictly a question of whether they think the ends justify the means.     

Seriously?  Before any of these allegations came out, Kavanaugh was one of the least popular SC nominees in recent history.  If McConnell weren't determined to go totally nuclear and confirm with 51 votes instead of the traditional 60 votes, this guy probably never would have gotten to the stage of having hearings at all and none of this assault stuff would have come out.  Since the Republicans have decided to abandon 200 years of tradition and compromise and instead have capitulated to the hard-right extremists in their party, the Democrats are not left with any viable options for making their point known through "due process", because the Republicans are denying them due process.  There are now multiple allegations and multiple Republican senators are already saying that they are still planning to vote for him, so no need for a proper investigation.

Due to population disparities, the Senate at the moment is not at all representative of the makeup or opinions of the general American population.  ~20% of the population controls 60% of the Senate.  Rather than being mindful of the immense and disproportionate power they hold and choosing to wield it responsibly (by advocating for their constituents but also considering the good of the whole country), those senators are choosing to cater to a minority of the population to an extreme degree.




El_Viajero

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #329 on: September 25, 2018, 09:46:34 AM »
I posted my thoughts on the Kavanaugh/sexual assault matter earlier this morning and already received several thought-provoking responses and rebuttals! I won't quote them all, but the two that stand out are:

Kris's argument: Sexual assault is different from, say, a DUI in your 20s because it necessarily involves the deliberate exploitation of another human being.

Sol's argument: Someone who has gotten away with sexual assault on multiple occasions has no business meting out punishments to people as a judge or justice.

These arguments are strong enough to make me reconsider my position!

sol

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #330 on: September 25, 2018, 09:50:42 AM »
I posted my thoughts on the Kavanaugh/sexual assault matter earlier this morning and already received several thought-provoking responses and rebuttals!
...
These arguments are strong enough to make me reconsider my position!

You must not be a Senator.

Samuel

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #331 on: September 25, 2018, 09:52:36 AM »
And this is the real issue people have with Kavanaugh.  Anybody that disagrees politically must be a likely rapist.  There are too few people who have the ability to recognize other people can disagree with respect to political issues without being monsters and too few people who see any value in the policital process or due process.  It's strictly a question of whether they think the ends justify the means.     

Gorusch didn't have any sexual assault accusers.

To be fair, neither did Kavanaugh until after his confirmation hearings and right before the vote.

El_Viajero

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #332 on: September 25, 2018, 09:53:26 AM »
I posted my thoughts on the Kavanaugh/sexual assault matter earlier this morning and already received several thought-provoking responses and rebuttals!
...
These arguments are strong enough to make me reconsider my position!

You must not be a Senator.

Lol. Nope. I'm not ruthless enough to be in politics. I've got plenty of other flaws, but being an inflexible, pandering asshole thankfully isn't one of them. My wife may disagree.

nereo

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #333 on: September 25, 2018, 10:15:15 AM »
And this is the real issue people have with Kavanaugh.  Anybody that disagrees politically must be a likely rapist.  There are too few people who have the ability to recognize other people can disagree with respect to political issues without being monsters and too few people who see any value in the policital process or due process.  It's strictly a question of whether they think the ends justify the means.     

Gorusch didn't have any sexual assault accusers.

To be fair, neither did Kavanaugh until after his confirmation hearings and right before the vote.

Are we sure about this?  I kinda think this is in the realm of "possible but potentially unknowable".
There have certainly been other public figures who have successfully repressed previous misdeeds, be that by settlements outside of course, intimidation or working to have records sealed.

It would certainly be a line of questioning I'd like asked of Kavanaugh while under oath.

Glenstache

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #334 on: September 25, 2018, 10:19:16 AM »

And this is the real issue people have with Kavanaugh.  Anybody that disagrees politically must be a likely rapist.  There are too few people who have the ability to recognize other people can disagree with respect to political issues without being monsters and too few people who see any value in the policital process or due process.  It's strictly a question of whether they think the ends justify the means.     

Would you please send this message to Mitch McConnell?

Again, most of the people here are calling for an investigation of Kavanaugh based an increasing number of reports of sexual assault by Kavanaugh. That he carries disregard for women forward in his judicial career (I understand that this can be argued, and is subject to opinion), is a follow on as opposed to a primary reason to think has conducted sexual harassment.

PathtoFIRE

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #335 on: September 25, 2018, 10:39:56 AM »
...Helaine Olen writes: ...

Fun fact, Helaine Olen is now a personal finance writer, and has even posted in this illustrious forum (once)

PathtoFIRE

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #336 on: September 25, 2018, 10:48:59 AM »
Gorusch didn't have any sexual assault accusers.

To be fair, neither did Kavanaugh until after his confirmation hearings and right before the vote.

We do know that it was widely reported that Majority Leacer McConnell strongly argued for three other candidates and against Kavanaugh. The reason that he gave in the press around July was Kavanaugh's "large paper trail" of millions of documents while working for the Bush White House. Maybe that was the only reason, or maybe there was more, but I'm not ready to assume that this side of Kavanaugh wasn't at least partially on the radar of Republicans before the actual nomination. Gorsuch also went to Georgetown Prep, two years behind Kavanaugh, and you know that some reporter(s) is/are going to investigate that angle further, so there could be more to that story too.

Jrr85

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #337 on: September 25, 2018, 10:54:33 AM »

And this is the real issue people have with Kavanaugh.  Anybody that disagrees politically must be a likely rapist.  There are too few people who have the ability to recognize other people can disagree with respect to political issues without being monsters and too few people who see any value in the policital process or due process.  It's strictly a question of whether they think the ends justify the means.     

You are making a false equivalency. There are a great number of people who I disagree with politically whom I have no reason to suspect are guilty of sexual misconduct.  At the same time there are people who's political views are in more in line with my own who are convicted criminals. One does not equate the other.

What I believe you are asserting here is that these allegations must be politically motivated because it is the opposition who wants them heard and investigated.  Here though we have a conflicting standard - those that support the nominee wish to vote on his confirmation 'without further delay' and without further inquiry. Do you see how that conflicts with your assertion?

It's not that the allegations must be politically motivated.  It's that people "believe" them because they don't want Kavanaugh on the court.  It's not that they don't want him on the court because of the allegations. 

And it is not contrary to due or proper process to want the hearings to proceed quickly.  There was a time for these complaints to be asserted and investigated.  That time was preferably thirty years ago when they happened, but barring that, the time would have been when he was nominated to the DC Circuit Court, and barring that, it would have been when he was nominated to the Supreme Court.  Allowing people to bring these allegations after the committee hearings are over when they had plenty of notice to assert them if they wished makes a mockery of the process.   

Have Ford testify because she at least sent her letter back in July.  Then have kavanaugh testify about Ford's allegations.  That should be done but that's all to be done at this point barring some corroborating evidence. 

For the person who decided Kavanaugh assaulted her only after six days of thinking about it (and that after not being sure the first 30 years after it happened) and even then is relying on hearsay, and who didn't make the claim until after the committee hearings were completed?  The proper process for that is to not consider it.  If you do something different, you are just assuring that these claims will come out of the woodwork for every nominee now, as in a country of 300M plus people, there are always going to be crazies willing to make claims. 

Kris

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #338 on: September 25, 2018, 11:07:07 AM »

And this is the real issue people have with Kavanaugh.  Anybody that disagrees politically must be a likely rapist.  There are too few people who have the ability to recognize other people can disagree with respect to political issues without being monsters and too few people who see any value in the policital process or due process.  It's strictly a question of whether they think the ends justify the means.     

You are making a false equivalency. There are a great number of people who I disagree with politically whom I have no reason to suspect are guilty of sexual misconduct.  At the same time there are people who's political views are in more in line with my own who are convicted criminals. One does not equate the other.

What I believe you are asserting here is that these allegations must be politically motivated because it is the opposition who wants them heard and investigated.  Here though we have a conflicting standard - those that support the nominee wish to vote on his confirmation 'without further delay' and without further inquiry. Do you see how that conflicts with your assertion?

It's not that the allegations must be politically motivated. It's that people "believe" them because they don't want Kavanaugh on the court. It's not that they don't want him on the court because of the allegations. 

And it is not contrary to due or proper process to want the hearings to proceed quickly.  There was a time for these complaints to be asserted and investigated.  That time was preferably thirty years ago when they happened, but barring that, the time would have been when he was nominated to the DC Circuit Court, and barring that, it would have been when he was nominated to the Supreme Court.  Allowing people to bring these allegations after the committee hearings are over when they had plenty of notice to assert them if they wished makes a mockery of the process.   

Have Ford testify because she at least sent her letter back in July.  Then have kavanaugh testify about Ford's allegations.  That should be done but that's all to be done at this point barring some corroborating evidence. 

For the person who decided Kavanaugh assaulted her only after six days of thinking about it (and that after not being sure the first 30 years after it happened) and even then is relying on hearsay, and who didn't make the claim until after the committee hearings were completed?  The proper process for that is to not consider it.  If you do something different, you are just assuring that these claims will come out of the woodwork for every nominee now, as in a country of 300M plus people, there are always going to be crazies willing to make claims.

How do you know the motivations of all of the people who have a problem with these allegations?

PathtoFIRE

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #339 on: September 25, 2018, 11:07:39 AM »
For the person who decided Kavanaugh assaulted her only after six days of thinking about it

I admit I winced when I read that too. https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/senate-democrats-investigate-a-new-allegation-of-sexual-misconduct-from-the-supreme-court-nominee-brett-kavanaughs-college-years-deborah-ramirez

However, you forget that in that story, while none of the possible eyewitnesses would corroborate Ramirez's story, they did find a classmate who said he was "one-hundred-percent sure" that he was told either that night of or on one of the following two days that Kavanaugh exposed himself to Ramirez, and independently corroborated some of the details like the specific location of the allegation. Maybe not the world's most solid corroboration, but definitely enough in my eyes to dismiss this as a "Democrat con job" like Trump, and to expect this to be investigated further before proceeding with the nomination.

Jrr85, do you believe this is a setup by Democrats or Democratic supporters?

partgypsy

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #340 on: September 25, 2018, 11:14:48 AM »
So you think these women are just "crazies willing to make claims?" I agree that it would have been better if this came out sooner. Honestly before this whole thing started. But it was only after he was nominated, just like with roy Moore, the states were higher. The issue with sexual assault, no one wants to be the first. A similar thing happened in the Roy Moore case. For a long while there was just one claim.

I'm reserving judgement on all this. I still feel it should be investigated by an impartial party, the FBI versus everyone just throwing their 2 cents in.  That is the best for both Kavanagh so he can remove the clouds over his head if these are unsubstantiated claims, or provide more determining information. There is no deadline here, only an artificial one because McConnell has already announced that he was going to deliver Kavanagh as next Justice.

Last Friday he said "here’s what I want to tell you: in the very near future, Judge Kavanaugh will be on the United States Supreme Court."

 
https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2018/09/21/mcconnell-brett-kavanaugh-supreme-court/1379027002/

austin944

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #341 on: September 25, 2018, 11:20:16 AM »
Gorusch didn't have any sexual assault accusers.

The balance of the court will swing right if Kavanaugh is confirmed since he'd be replacing a moderate.  Not so with Gorsuch since he was replacing a hard-right conservative.

Clarence Thomas replaced a liberal on the court.

I am seeing a pattern...

Kris

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #342 on: September 25, 2018, 11:22:45 AM »
Gorusch didn't have any sexual assault accusers.

The balance of the court will swing right if Kavanaugh is confirmed since he'd be replacing a moderate.  Not so with Gorsuch since he was replacing a hard-right conservative.

Clarence Thomas replaced a liberal on the court.

I am seeing a pattern...

Seriously? You are suggesting that Anita Hill was a plant as well?

Good lord. We have learned nothing in all these years.

Jrr85

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #343 on: September 25, 2018, 11:27:01 AM »
For the person who decided Kavanaugh assaulted her only after six days of thinking about it

I admit I winced when I read that too. https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/senate-democrats-investigate-a-new-allegation-of-sexual-misconduct-from-the-supreme-court-nominee-brett-kavanaughs-college-years-deborah-ramirez

However, you forget that in that story, while none of the possible eyewitnesses would corroborate Ramirez's story, they did find a classmate who said he was "one-hundred-percent sure" that he was told either that night of or on one of the following two days that Kavanaugh exposed himself to Ramirez, and independently corroborated some of the details like the specific location of the allegation. Maybe not the world's most solid corroboration, but definitely enough in my eyes to dismiss this as a "Democrat con job" like Trump, and to expect this to be investigated further before proceeding with the nomination.

Jrr85, do you believe this is a setup by Democrats or Democratic supporters?

I doubt it.  If I were going to guess, I'd guess it's more likely Ford and the one from yale are true believers who experienced something and have now convinced themselves that it was sexual assault/attempted rape and that Kavanaugh was involved.  Memory is way more fickle and susceptible to distortion than people realize, and that only becomes more true when people are under the influence when the event in question took place and then decades pass. 



   

Kris

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #344 on: September 25, 2018, 11:27:51 AM »
For the person who decided Kavanaugh assaulted her only after six days of thinking about it

I admit I winced when I read that too. https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/senate-democrats-investigate-a-new-allegation-of-sexual-misconduct-from-the-supreme-court-nominee-brett-kavanaughs-college-years-deborah-ramirez

However, you forget that in that story, while none of the possible eyewitnesses would corroborate Ramirez's story, they did find a classmate who said he was "one-hundred-percent sure" that he was told either that night of or on one of the following two days that Kavanaugh exposed himself to Ramirez, and independently corroborated some of the details like the specific location of the allegation. Maybe not the world's most solid corroboration, but definitely enough in my eyes to dismiss this as a "Democrat con job" like Trump, and to expect this to be investigated further before proceeding with the nomination.

Jrr85, do you believe this is a setup by Democrats or Democratic supporters?

I doubt it.  If I were going to guess, I'd guess it's more likely Ford and the one from yale are true believers who experienced something and have now convinced themselves that it was sexual assault/attempted rape and that Kavanaugh was involved.  Memory is way more fickle and susceptible to distortion than people realize, and that only becomes more true when people are under the influence when the event in question took place and then decades pass. 



   

Quite honestly, the sexism in this statement is horrifying to me.

Jrr85

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #345 on: September 25, 2018, 11:30:26 AM »
So you think these women are just "crazies willing to make claims?" I agree that it would have been better if this came out sooner. Honestly before this whole thing started. But it was only after he was nominated, just like with roy Moore, the states were higher. The issue with sexual assault, no one wants to be the first. A similar thing happened in the Roy Moore case. For a long while there was just one claim.

I'm reserving judgement on all this. I still feel it should be investigated by an impartial party, the FBI versus everyone just throwing their 2 cents in.  That is the best for both Kavanagh so he can remove the clouds over his head if these are unsubstantiated claims, or provide more determining information. There is no deadline here, only an artificial one because McConnell has already announced that he was going to deliver Kavanagh as next Justice.

Last Friday he said "here’s what I want to tell you: in the very near future, Judge Kavanaugh will be on the United States Supreme Court."

 
https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2018/09/21/mcconnell-brett-kavanaugh-supreme-court/1379027002/

No one knows.  That's the point.  And they can't know.  It's possible that they're crazies willing to make a claim.  It's possible that they honestly believe what they are saying but are mistaken.  It's possible that Kavanaugh did what they are alleging but all the witnesses identified by the alleged victims are circling the wagons and lying on behalf of Kavanaugh.  There's really no way to know. 

jezebel

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #346 on: September 25, 2018, 11:31:24 AM »
Is it logical that the first alleged victim was not as motivated to come forward until this point?
« Last Edit: October 18, 2018, 04:04:31 AM by jezebel »

Jrr85

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #347 on: September 25, 2018, 11:35:06 AM »
For the person who decided Kavanaugh assaulted her only after six days of thinking about it

I admit I winced when I read that too. https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/senate-democrats-investigate-a-new-allegation-of-sexual-misconduct-from-the-supreme-court-nominee-brett-kavanaughs-college-years-deborah-ramirez

However, you forget that in that story, while none of the possible eyewitnesses would corroborate Ramirez's story, they did find a classmate who said he was "one-hundred-percent sure" that he was told either that night of or on one of the following two days that Kavanaugh exposed himself to Ramirez, and independently corroborated some of the details like the specific location of the allegation. Maybe not the world's most solid corroboration, but definitely enough in my eyes to dismiss this as a "Democrat con job" like Trump, and to expect this to be investigated further before proceeding with the nomination.

Jrr85, do you believe this is a setup by Democrats or Democratic supporters?

I doubt it.  If I were going to guess, I'd guess it's more likely Ford and the one from yale are true believers who experienced something and have now convinced themselves that it was sexual assault/attempted rape and that Kavanaugh was involved.  Memory is way more fickle and susceptible to distortion than people realize, and that only becomes more true when people are under the influence when the event in question took place and then decades pass. 



   

Quite honestly, the sexism in this statement is horrifying to me.

Sincere question: 

Do you find sexism in a neutral statement because it lets you be on a moral crusade that makes you feel good about yourself?  Or because you have been traumatized so you just find it everywhere regardless of its existence?  Because you use it as sort of a logical fallacy to support your argument?  Because you are sexist and assume the research on memory indicates women's memory is less reliable than men's? (to my knowledge it doesn't show any difference; memory is just less reliable than people think for men and women) 

Because of some other reason?


PathtoFIRE

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #348 on: September 25, 2018, 11:39:31 AM »
I doubt it.  If I were going to guess, I'd guess it's more likely Ford and the one from yale are true believers who experienced something and have now convinced themselves that it was sexual assault/attempted rape and that Kavanaugh was involved.  Memory is way more fickle and susceptible to distortion than people realize, and that only becomes more true when people are under the influence when the event in question took place and then decades pass. 

Cuts both ways, I myself have wondered (assuming the allegations are basically true) whether Kavanaugh has convinced himself this never happened, or was a very minimal deal/prank among friends. Maybe he both did the actions alleged and really truly feels blindsided by all of this, I don't discount that possibility.

But again, without an independent fact-based investigation by the FBI or similar agency, we are left reading tea leaves. And I still find the alleged victims stories, complete with acknowledged holes and all, more believable that Kavanaugh's insistent denial of anything whatsoever, no way, no how. His Fox News interview where he implies he only drank when he was legally 18 (except the age limit jumped to 21 when he would have been 17), his very deceptive testimony about the roles he played in the Bush White House, threading that needle of not committing perjury but also not offering an honest recount of what he did receive and on the nominations he may have contributed to.

Glenstache

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #349 on: September 25, 2018, 11:48:37 AM »
Stepping back for a second.... In context this is ultimately about Kavanaugh. The Republicans have already made a mockery out of the nomination process with the way that McConnell and Grassley have run it. That horse is out of the barn. For the accusations, the motivations are not actually material. They could be choosing this time out of malicious intent to keep Brett from living out his lifelong dream of appointment to SCOTUS for personal or political reasons. They could be reluctant truth tellers. It could be somewhere in between.

It does not matter.

What does matter is that the allegations are varied in quality, but are corroborated by a number of people and thus appear to have credibility. The accusers have been up front about the limitations of memory when drunk instead of trying to fill gaps where they shouldn't. The stories appear to be credible in the broad sense even if there are details that are vague. This is exactly the type of question that I was speaking about a few posts back. What if investigation reveals a pattern of behavior? That certainly seems to be the emerging picture. Does reckless behavior also dovetail with getting into large debt over sports tickets fit into this narrative?

Right now we have investigations being carried out by journalists (some with extensive experience in this area, such as Ronan Farrow (who has been clear in his reporting about gaps, and uncertainty). It would be nice to have a group with better access like the FBI follow up.