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Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?

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asiljoy

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1200 on: October 04, 2018, 04:42:11 PM »
Kinda makes me feel democracy is a bit of a farce at this point, isn't it? I live in North Carolina, and I feel our politics have been taken hostage.
It's discouraging and frustrating. We're at the end of a 30-year power grab strategy.  It isn't the first and won't be the last.

If you're feeling overwhelmed and down, stop watching the dumpster fire that is national news and get involved locally. Go to your city council meetings, school board meetings etc, volunteer where you can. Vote and get your friends to vote. There's good that can be done.

And I disagree with the idea that this has all been a wasted effort by Ford. Her testimony was inspiring. The number of toolkits I've seen published, the discussions etc on sites other than here has been fantastic in terms of what men/women can do when they find themselves in bad situations, what recourse they have, how they don't 'owe' anyone anything, even phrasing for how to say 'No'...  Like I'm from Nowhere, USA and that kind of toolkit was def not available to me and we definitely didn't discuss any of that as kids. It's great they're doing it now and it will have a lasting impact.

Bateaux

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1201 on: October 04, 2018, 05:02:29 PM »
I'm just going to build my stash pile bigger and bigger.   FIRE may be put on hold for a while.   Things could get very expensive going forward and I'm not feeling the confidence to put away the cash FIRE hose yet.  We can lose so many things if they hold the court, House, Senate and Whitehouse.   We could lose Social Security and Medicare.  You'd better have a damn good plan B.

electriceagle

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1202 on: October 04, 2018, 06:16:52 PM »
Relevant info

https://www.gofundme.com/help-christine-blasey-ford
https://www.gofundme.com/support-brett-kavanaugh

The first gofundme shows that people have donated $536,000
The second gofundme shows that people have donated $594,000

This is the worst episode of the twilight zone ever.

I'm going to venture a different guess.  Murkowski votes against Kavanaugh.  All Democrats and all other Republicans vote in their bloc.  Pence makes the tie-breaking vote.  End result is the same, but I think we end up there a different way.

What for? Flake is the only one who has nothing to lose, since he is retiring. The other two are keeping their seats and will need to ask favors from the Republican leadership from time to time.

The three of them are perfectly capable of talking to each other and determining among themselves which way the wind is going to blow. They're also perfectly capable of telling the Republican leadership their plans to avoid an embarrassing failed vote and the stronger retribution that would come with it. Either the vote is canceled at the last minute, they vote "yes" as a bloc, or only Flake votes no (nothing to lose, Pence breaks the tie).

I could be wrong if either Collins or Murkowski sees more benefit in potentially gaining home-state Democratic voters than the loss from potentially weathering a re-election challenge from the right.

Glenstache

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1203 on: October 04, 2018, 06:27:45 PM »
So... Kavanaugh has penned an editorial for the Wall Street Journal effectively on the eve of his vote.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/i-am-an-independent-impartial-judge-1538695822

Quote
Against that backdrop, I testified before the Judiciary Committee last Thursday to defend my family, my good name and my lifetime of public service. My hearing testimony was forceful and passionate. That is because I forcefully and passionately denied the allegation against me. At times, my testimony—both in my opening statement and in response to questions—reflected my overwhelming frustration at being wrongly accused, without corroboration, of horrible conduct completely contrary to my record and character. My statement and answers also reflected my deep distress at the unfairness of how this allegation has been handled.

I was very emotional last Thursday, more so than I have ever been. I might have been too emotional at times. I know that my tone was sharp, and I said a few things I should not have said. I hope everyone can understand that I was there as a son, husband and dad. I testified with five people foremost in my mind: my mom, my dad, my wife, and most of all my daughters.

I think writing something like this to advocate for himself is unheard of in SCOTUS nominations that I am aware of. Granted, this process has been a bit off the rails relative to historic norms as well in many, many, many ways.

ministashy

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1204 on: October 04, 2018, 06:37:43 PM »
For all those still debating about whether to believe Dr. Ford and Kavanaugh's other accusers, you might want to read this and mull it over:

http://chronolith.tumblr.com/post/178741746255/tbc-since-tumblrs-posting-methods-changed-linked

Brief synopsis--people in the past have offered up to 1 MILLION DOLLARS for anyone to come forward with an accusation of rape/sexual assault/having an affair against a politician ... and the only takers were 2 women, one who backed out before ever going through with it, and the other whose accusations were admitted as true by the politician she accused.

Let that sink in.

Lovelywings

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1205 on: October 04, 2018, 08:02:14 PM »
Men who want to be allies?
Stop engaging.
Please.
It’s NOT HELPING.

I have difficultly letting counterfactual attacks be used to cause people offense, without speaking up.  Would you prefer the entire world just let the red pill people do their own thing as loudly and publicly as they want to?  From my perspective, arguing with anisotropy about this is like being a counterprotestor at a white supremacy rally.  Man or woman doesn't matter, someone needs to stand up and say "this is not okay." 

But not everyone.  For anyone who is uncomfortable with this topic, by all means please protect yourselves by limiting your exposure to ugly content. 

In fact, for struggling survivors of sexual assault, I recommend you just totally avoid national news for at least the next week.  Shit's about to go down.

Sol, for what it's worth, I applaud you for this. We may not agree on the way I formulated the case or that what I presented are counterfactual, but your behavior is admirable.

You know what, just to settle this, I will reach out to experts in this field, whether that be Statistics or Sexual violence. Give me sometime, if I am wrong I will surely apologize to you and everyone else. Thanks.

Sol, I hear that you are doing what you can to try to address a huge issue, and at the same time, as a woman, what you say here does not feel like allyship at all. Your arguments upthread did, but this does not.

Please listen to this. I realize it sucks, as you are very actively trying to be an ally. I would not have sleuthed through my email trying to find one of my old logins if I did not respect your opinions and your intentions. I even occasionally chose to engage a troll or two to test my communication skills, if I've got the bandwidth and the time. I understand the temptation, and there can be a time and place for it - you often hit that line, and I appreciate your voice. Up until this last post I even felt you were mostly pretty solidly doing awesome.

Women don't get to chose to walk away from what is happening with Kavenaugh. We live it, every day of our lives. We also live the experience of being told to go away in online contexts. I know it is not your intention, and at the same time what I felt when I read your comment, and the thread that came before it, was the following:

1) almost all of the outspoken women dropped out of the conversation several pages ago. This was not a coincidence.
2) The statistics debate is a deliberate derail and consists of a couple red pill bros deliberately reframing the debate to silence it. I wish that the ally men had enough experience with what it is like to be a woman on the internet to see that.
3) YAY! several women directly called it out, now the smart/not awful men will stop feeding it!
4) HOLY FUCK one of the more well spoken non-awful men just accidentally told us women to get off the internet and leave it for the boys to argue so he can argue and rescue all us damsels in distress from the feels and the bad math monsters of the deep, and he has no idea what he just said/implied/tapped into/added to our fuck this shit 2018 overwhelm.

I stopped reading the statistics pages ago, but was increasingly upset by how many allies were letting the derail happen. Your response to being asked to stop feels worse then the red pill nonsense that crept in here, because it comes from someone who is generally worth respecting. #listentowomen. We're trying to tell you something you need to hear - stop engaging with the math, in this place, in this time. There will be another time, probably in this thread, where your voice will be welcome, and supportive. The stats are no longer it. And when women tell you to stop, stop.

Pretty much this. This whole thread makes me reconsider mutachianism if the red pillers are indeed long standing members of this community.

MasterStache

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1206 on: October 05, 2018, 05:36:21 AM »
For all those still debating about whether to believe Dr. Ford and Kavanaugh's other accusers, you might want to read this and mull it over:

http://chronolith.tumblr.com/post/178741746255/tbc-since-tumblrs-posting-methods-changed-linked

Brief synopsis--people in the past have offered up to 1 MILLION DOLLARS for anyone to come forward with an accusation of rape/sexual assault/having an affair against a politician ... and the only takers were 2 women, one who backed out before ever going through with it, and the other whose accusations were admitted as true by the politician she accused.

Let that sink in.

It doesn't matter. The GOP will stop at nothing to push their agenda. Sexual assault did not stand in the way of electing Trump and it most certainly won't stand in the way of confirming Kavanaugh. When they can't deny it happened it's just "locker room talk" or "horseplay."  Or you know it happened so long ago so who cares. The women will be mocked (see Trump's latest shitty rant about Ford), scolded as liars and the men will be put into higher positions of power. It's truly sad to see how the party has literally de-evolved.

The only thing we can do is vote these despicable assholes out of office and show the people who continue to support them that their misogyny has no place in today's society. I don't know if it will happen, but I know I am going to do my part.

thd7t

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1207 on: October 05, 2018, 06:19:02 AM »
Relevant info

https://www.gofundme.com/help-christine-blasey-ford
https://www.gofundme.com/support-brett-kavanaugh

The first gofundme shows that people have donated $536,000
The second gofundme shows that people have donated $594,000

This is the worst episode of the twilight zone ever.

I'm going to venture a different guess.  Murkowski votes against Kavanaugh.  All Democrats and all other Republicans vote in their bloc.  Pence makes the tie-breaking vote.  End result is the same, but I think we end up there a different way.

What for? Flake is the only one who has nothing to lose, since he is retiring. The other two are keeping their seats and will need to ask favors from the Republican leadership from time to time.

The three of them are perfectly capable of talking to each other and determining among themselves which way the wind is going to blow. They're also perfectly capable of telling the Republican leadership their plans to avoid an embarrassing failed vote and the stronger retribution that would come with it. Either the vote is canceled at the last minute, they vote "yes" as a bloc, or only Flake votes no (nothing to lose, Pence breaks the tie).

I could be wrong if either Collins or Murkowski sees more benefit in potentially gaining home-state Democratic voters than the loss from potentially weathering a re-election challenge from the right.
My thought was that Murkowski is a small state incumbent, which helps independence a lot.  She has superior name recognition and (in Alaska) cross aisle appeal, represented by her successful write-in campaign a few years back.  However, I will revise my opinion, now that Kavanaugh has written an "I'm sorry" Op-Ed and given cover along with the FBI "Investigation".

Roadrunner53

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1208 on: October 05, 2018, 06:57:33 AM »
It is sickening watching these opinionated old geezers brush off Kavanaugh's past. They are from another time when women were barefoot and pregnant. Melania said it is 'boy talk' when it came to the filth that came out of her husbands mouth. Like it is okay to broadcast sexual exploits and laugh about it ast someones expense.

Grassley, Feinstein are 85 years old, Orin Hatch 84 years old. McConnell is 76 years old. Why don't these people step down and hand over the reigns to some young blood. Also, let us start rewarding people for doing the right thing. Not rewarding them for the evil, underhanded crap they pull.

Why are people supporting Trump when he says degrading, hurtful things and nicknames to belittle everyone around him. He is not funny. Our country is going to hell with this ugliness.

I have nothing against geezers because I am headed that way too but I am retired. I respect older people for their opinions but there is a time when they need to go.

TexasRunner

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1209 on: October 05, 2018, 07:00:37 AM »

Unique User

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1210 on: October 05, 2018, 07:01:47 AM »
Relevant info

https://www.gofundme.com/help-christine-blasey-ford
https://www.gofundme.com/support-brett-kavanaugh

The first gofundme shows that people have donated $536,000
The second gofundme shows that people have donated $594,000

This is the worst episode of the twilight zone ever.

I'm going to venture a different guess.  Murkowski votes against Kavanaugh.  All Democrats and all other Republicans vote in their bloc.  Pence makes the tie-breaking vote.  End result is the same, but I think we end up there a different way.

What for? Flake is the only one who has nothing to lose, since he is retiring. The other two are keeping their seats and will need to ask favors from the Republican leadership from time to time.

The three of them are perfectly capable of talking to each other and determining among themselves which way the wind is going to blow. They're also perfectly capable of telling the Republican leadership their plans to avoid an embarrassing failed vote and the stronger retribution that would come with it. Either the vote is canceled at the last minute, they vote "yes" as a bloc, or only Flake votes no (nothing to lose, Pence breaks the tie).

I could be wrong if either Collins or Murkowski sees more benefit in potentially gaining home-state Democratic voters than the loss from potentially weathering a re-election challenge from the right.
My thought was that Murkowski is a small state incumbent, which helps independence a lot.  She has superior name recognition and (in Alaska) cross aisle appeal, represented by her successful write-in campaign a few years back.  However, I will revise my opinion, now that Kavanaugh has written an "I'm sorry" Op-Ed and given cover along with the FBI "Investigation".

Having grown up in an abusive household it feels very much like a "I'm sorry you made me hit you" type of non-apology. 

partgypsy

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1211 on: October 05, 2018, 07:16:59 AM »


Am I weird that one of the thing that bugs me most about this cartoon that the dude doesn't even look like Kavanaugh?

GuitarStv

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1212 on: October 05, 2018, 07:21:07 AM »
I'm confused, it's partisan to discuss Kavenaugh's past?

shenlong55

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1213 on: October 05, 2018, 07:25:50 AM »

The fact that you and others see wanting to investigate credible accusations of sexual misconduct as a partisan attack seems to be a big part of the problem here.  The right thing to do doesn't change just because it happens to benefit the other party.  But conservatives just assume that liberals are only doing this because it benefits them in order to give themselves an excuse to go all in on partisanship, even going so far as to have their Supreme Court nominee go off the rails with some conspiracy theory rant in front of the Senate and the entire country.

Sent from my moto x4 using Tapatalk


thd7t

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1214 on: October 05, 2018, 07:28:22 AM »
Relevant info

https://www.gofundme.com/help-christine-blasey-ford
https://www.gofundme.com/support-brett-kavanaugh

The first gofundme shows that people have donated $536,000
The second gofundme shows that people have donated $594,000

This is the worst episode of the twilight zone ever.

I'm going to venture a different guess.  Murkowski votes against Kavanaugh.  All Democrats and all other Republicans vote in their bloc.  Pence makes the tie-breaking vote.  End result is the same, but I think we end up there a different way.

What for? Flake is the only one who has nothing to lose, since he is retiring. The other two are keeping their seats and will need to ask favors from the Republican leadership from time to time.

The three of them are perfectly capable of talking to each other and determining among themselves which way the wind is going to blow. They're also perfectly capable of telling the Republican leadership their plans to avoid an embarrassing failed vote and the stronger retribution that would come with it. Either the vote is canceled at the last minute, they vote "yes" as a bloc, or only Flake votes no (nothing to lose, Pence breaks the tie).

I could be wrong if either Collins or Murkowski sees more benefit in potentially gaining home-state Democratic voters than the loss from potentially weathering a re-election challenge from the right.
My thought was that Murkowski is a small state incumbent, which helps independence a lot.  She has superior name recognition and (in Alaska) cross aisle appeal, represented by her successful write-in campaign a few years back.  However, I will revise my opinion, now that Kavanaugh has written an "I'm sorry" Op-Ed and given cover along with the FBI "Investigation".

Having grown up in an abusive household it feels very much like a "I'm sorry you made me hit you" type of non-apology.
I totally agree, but they only need the tiniest amount of cover to point to.  They're getting what they want by voting for him. 

RetiredAt63

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1215 on: October 05, 2018, 08:06:32 AM »
Not my country, so sad to be watching this.  But if we are going into editorial cartoons, here is one from your neighbours.

Kris

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1216 on: October 05, 2018, 08:16:32 AM »
Not my country, so sad to be watching this.  But if we are going into editorial cartoons, here is one from your neighbours.

Very interesting to see this version of this cartoon. I don't know what the original version is (this or another) but the version I saw was posted by a Libertarian, and there were difference symbols on each sleeve - one for Republicans and one for Democrats. (I do think this one makes more sense, though.)

This is the original version.

Leave it to the libertarians to make everything about them.

GuitarStv

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1217 on: October 05, 2018, 08:18:09 AM »
Not my country, so sad to be watching this.  But if we are going into editorial cartoons, here is one from your neighbours.

Very interesting to see this version of this cartoon. I don't know what the original version is (this or another) but the version I saw was posted by a Libertarian, and there were difference symbols on each sleeve - one for Republicans and one for Democrats. (I do think this one makes more sense, though.)

This is the original version.

Leave it to the libertarians to make everything about them.

It's consistent at least . . . libertarians have never been big on copyright.

Malaysia41

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1218 on: October 05, 2018, 08:18:28 AM »
It blows my mind that people here are focusing on the GOP v DNC team sport aspect of this nomination. I expect better of mustachians.

How can anyone have watched Kavanaugh's full testimony and think he's fit for the supreme court?

Based on his testimony and his testimony alone, he failed to demonstrate impartiality, temperament, staid consideration, cool-headedness, and judgement.

Try this: imagine a young liberal federal judge - a 2018 version of a young Ruth Bader Ginsburg - giving the following testimony in a spiteful rage.

Quote
"This whole two-week effort has been a calculated and orchestrated political hit fueled with apparent pent-up anger about president Obama and the 2012 election, fear that has been unfairly stoked about my judicial record. Revenge on behalf of the Bushes and millions of dollars in money from right-wing opposition groups. This is a circus. The consequences will extend long past my nomination. The consequences will be with us for decades. This grotesque, character assassination will dissuade confident and good people of all political persuasions from serving our country and as we all know in the political system of the early 2000s, what goes around comes around."

Would you want someone giving this testimony on the Supreme court? I can tell you without a doubt I would not.

That was Kavanaugh's testimony, word for word, where only bolded words have been changed.

How could this judge be impartial in any way toward citizens who are registered republican (as I was for 20 years)?

Then you add on to that all of the obvious lies under sworn testimony. What the fuck people? Get off this hyper-partisan merry-go-round and take a good look. We have two privately funded parties. And they are taking political bullshit to way outside the bounds of what any of us should be tolerating. Some more than others. Stop tolerating it. Demand better. Stop getting sucked into the 'my team' 'your team' bullshit aspect of it. This is our country. Fellow citizens lives will be affected by this nomination. And if bile-spitting Kavanaugh is put on the Supreme court, God help them.

And then you add in all the character testimonies by people who know him - including multiple women who report he sexually assaulted him and come on.

REALLY? You're going to post these pro-GOP political cartoons? FFS, I think you need to look yourself in the mirror and consider the standards we ought to hold our elected officials to. Especially those who are given lifetime appointments.

Even if you still consider yourself 'team GOP', surely you can see why this candidate is unfit for the supreme court. If you can't, well, it's beyond me how you get to that conclusion.
« Last Edit: October 05, 2018, 08:36:59 AM by Malaysia41 »

thd7t

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1219 on: October 05, 2018, 09:34:22 AM »
Murkowski showed integrity.  I had just said I doubted she would.  Glad to be wrong.  I still think it won't matter.

sol

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1220 on: October 05, 2018, 09:46:15 AM »
Murkowski showed integrity.  I had just said I doubted she would.  Glad to be wrong.  I still think it won't matter.

What are you commenting on?  Her vote against advancing his nomination to a full Senate vote?  That little tidbit mostly went under the radar, because Manchin (a democrat) voted to advance it, and so I think most people just assumed the reported 51-49 vote went along party lines.

I'm still unconvinced Murkowski will vote against him on the senate floor.  From where I'm sitting it seems obvious that five or six republican senators would vote against him given recent events, but I routinely underestimate the strength of Mitch McConnell's arm twisting.

thd7t

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1221 on: October 05, 2018, 09:51:59 AM »
Murkowski showed integrity.  I had just said I doubted she would.  Glad to be wrong.  I still think it won't matter.

What are you commenting on?  Her vote against advancing his nomination to a full Senate vote?  That little tidbit mostly went under the radar, because Manchin (a democrat) voted to advance it, and so I think most people just assumed the reported 51-49 vote went along party lines.

I'm still unconvinced Murkowski will vote against him on the senate floor.  From where I'm sitting it seems obvious that five or six republican senators would vote against him given recent events, but I routinely underestimate the strength of Mitch McConnell's arm twisting.
I was referencing her vote against advancing his nomination.  I do think she'll hold out and it won't matter.  She has four years after this before her next election and if she gets primaried, it'll seem like ancient history.

RetiredAt63

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1222 on: October 05, 2018, 10:00:59 AM »
Not my country, so sad to be watching this.  But if we are going into editorial cartoons, here is one from your neighbours.

Very interesting to see this version of this cartoon. I don't know what the original version is (this or another) but the version I saw was posted by a Libertarian, and there were difference symbols on each sleeve - one for Republicans and one for Democrats. (I do think this one makes more sense, though.)

This is the original version.

Leave it to the libertarians to make everything about them.

It's consistent at least . . . libertarians have never been big on copyright.

I got it from the cartoonist 's twitter account, it was the original.                          Americans don't respect copyright in other countries?  Libertarians don't respect copyright in other countries?  It is not like it was a random GIF.


We now return you to your regularly scheduled program.

sol

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1223 on: October 05, 2018, 10:06:01 AM »
I do think she'll hold out and it won't matter.

Yea, it looks like even if Murkowski holds to her no vote, it won't matter.  Jeff Flake appears to have folded, like always, and is almost certainly a yes.  That means both Collins AND Manchin would have to vote no to sink it.  I expect Manchin to ultimately vote no, but Collins to vote yes.

Which will be hugely hypocritical of her, since she was the deciding vote that got Al Franken expelled from the Senate for lesser crimes.  She called the allegations against him "credible, disgusting, and appalling" and called for his resignation.  I guess she's become a lot more accepting of sexual assault in the past 12 months?

I got it from the cartoonist 's twitter account, it was the original.

I thought it was a powerful image.  Many people are kind of wishy washy on sexual assault until they actually see what it looks like.  The political undertones are relevant, but probably not the most important part.
« Last Edit: October 05, 2018, 10:10:15 AM by sol »

JLee

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1224 on: October 05, 2018, 10:09:16 AM »

The Fat Baby G. Malenkov

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1225 on: October 05, 2018, 10:27:25 AM »
I heard some dumdums on the radio were talking about how the Supreme Court is going to start like, taking a low profile and punting on everything to get back the Trust of the American People which seems completely wrong-headed and frankly insane...
 
I understand that the court has always been sensitive to its public image and ultimately careful about self-preservation but there are a coupla things.
 
First is that the Republicans are smart enough to get someone in over the next few months, unquestionably, no matter what. That's in part what motivates the reflexive defense of the great rapist B. Kavanaugh, but even if he lost (i thought he was going to lose when they delayed but now whoopsy doodl), even if he did lose, they will get another different butthole and they will confirm him, even or especially if the Democrats magically win the Senate.
 
And the idea that the new majority will like, rest on its laurels, is imo first of all impossible because every significant issue in American public life manages to get litigated up to the supreme court and when circuits conflict, as they are prone to do in these stupid times, the court can't dodge. Second and more importantly the white race knows that it must do what I was worried about ten fucking years ago, when Obama was elected and it became obvious that either white supremacy was over or that it would have to be imposed via apartheid. The SC has already done a bunch of stuff to impose apartheid, most notably in campaign finance, in voting rights, and in gerrymandering. They have to keep going because every year the fraction of whites declines, and with 5 solid votes they are going to "go crazy" because they have no other choice.
 
Now to be clear the other thing that I said 10 years ago is still true, that whites are a large majority of all voters, so white racial solidarity if it can be achieved is "enough" to keep white power with or without the supreme court. But that doesn't seem to be the way things are going. So my expectation over the next 20 years is that we will get Jim Crow again.

Norioch

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1226 on: October 05, 2018, 10:33:38 AM »


Utter bullshit. Republicans have been waging scorched-earth total war for my entire politically-aware lifetime.

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1227 on: October 05, 2018, 10:40:02 AM »


Yea, it looks like even if Murkowski holds to her no vote, it won't matter.  Jeff Flake appears to have folded, like always, and is almost certainly a yes.  That means both Collins AND Manchin would have to vote no to sink it.  I expect Manchin to ultimately vote no, but Collins to vote yes.

Which will be hugely hypocritical of her, since she was the deciding vote that got Al Franken expelled from the Senate for lesser crimes.
Enormous difference in level of evidence.

sol

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1228 on: October 05, 2018, 10:45:19 AM »
Enormous difference in level of evidence.

Just so we're clear, that picture doesn't show sexual assault.  It shows him posing for a demeaning and sexually humiliating joke, but he's not touching her.

He also profusely apologized, saying that in the culture of the time he thought sexist jokes were funny.  Then he paid for his mistakes with his entire career, along his reputation and his credibility as an advocate for women.

Brett Kavanaugh did much worse.  With touching.  With his penis!  With violent force!  Not only is he not paying for it, we're promoting him to be nation's moral authority. 

The Fat Baby G. Malenkov

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1229 on: October 05, 2018, 11:14:36 AM »
Second thought, it appears that Senator L. Graham's supposed homosexuality was a ruse all along. In reality he is the tip of the spear of the incel uprising

FIRE_Buckeye

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1230 on: October 05, 2018, 11:22:27 AM »
This has been a fascinating topic to follow over the last month.
The fitness (or lacktherof) of Kavanaugh aside, it seems pretty clear that those so adamantly against him either haven't considered, or don't care about the alternative or the affect their furor has had on the political climate.

Alternative: Let's say Kavanaugh loses the vote tomorrow (unlikely, but possible). Then let's say Republicans remain in control of the Senate on Nov 7th (looking likely). We'll be left with an angry, vindictive President intent on punishing the left as well as an irate Senate majority. Trump will nominate the youngest, most far right candidate he can find, that the angry Republican senators will be more than happy to ram through.

Political climate: The process began with a moderately conservative nominee, and a disinterested republican base heading into the midterms. As things stand, we have now have a fired up republican base, along with a fired up conservative nominee who its safe to assume will be affected by his treatment throughout this process if he makes it onto the SC.

This is looking like a gross miscalculation by the left, and a poorly selected hill to die on so to speak.

Norioch

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1231 on: October 05, 2018, 11:25:29 AM »
We'll be left with an angry, vindictive President intent on punishing the left as well as an irate Senate majority.

So, worst case scenario, same as we have now, except the replacement nominee (possibly) won't be a rapist?

Malaysia41

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1232 on: October 05, 2018, 11:27:50 AM »
This has been a fascinating topic to follow over the last month.
The fitness (or lacktherof) of Kavanaugh aside, it seems pretty clear that those so adamantly against him either haven't considered, or don't care about the alternative or the affect their furor has had on the political climate.

Alternative: Let's say Kavanaugh loses the vote tomorrow (unlikely, but possible). Then let's say Republicans remain in control of the Senate on Nov 7th (looking likely). We'll be left with an angry, vindictive President intent on punishing the left as well as an irate Senate majority. Trump will nominate the youngest, most far right candidate he can find, that the angry Republican senators will be more than happy to ram through.

Political climate: The process began with a moderately conservative nominee, and a disinterested republican base heading into the midterms. As things stand, we have now have a fired up republican base, along with a fired up conservative nominee who its safe to assume will be affected by his treatment throughout this process if he makes it onto the SC.

This is looking like a gross miscalculation by the left, and a poorly selected hill to die on so to speak.

are you suggesting appeasement?

We've seen where that leads.

former player

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1233 on: October 05, 2018, 11:34:01 AM »
This has been a fascinating topic to follow over the last month.
The fitness (or lacktherof) of Kavanaugh aside, it seems pretty clear that those so adamantly against him either haven't considered, or don't care about the alternative or the affect their furor has had on the political climate.

Alternative: Let's say Kavanaugh loses the vote tomorrow (unlikely, but possible). Then let's say Republicans remain in control of the Senate on Nov 7th (looking likely). We'll be left with an angry, vindictive President intent on punishing the left as well as an irate Senate majority. Trump will nominate the youngest, most far right candidate he can find, that the angry Republican senators will be more than happy to ram through.

Political climate: The process began with a moderately conservative nominee, and a disinterested republican base heading into the midterms. As things stand, we have now have a fired up republican base, along with a fired up conservative nominee who its safe to assume will be affected by his treatment throughout this process if he makes it onto the SC.

This is looking like a gross miscalculation by the left, and a poorly selected hill to die on so to speak.
On what basis do you say that Kavanaugh is "moderately" conservative?

FIRE_Buckeye

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1234 on: October 05, 2018, 11:36:59 AM »

So, worst case scenario, same as we have now, except the replacement nominee (possibly) won't be a rapist?
Cute, but no.
You'd end up with a much more conservative judge on the Supreme Court.

And "rapist"? Really?
If you're actually going to attach yourself to a cause that can disqualify this nominee, it'd probably be prudent to attach yourself to one that can actually be corroborated, like say perjury about his drinking habits. I know liberals aren't a fan of the whole "innocent until proven guilty" thing, but like it or not, it's still one of the core principals on which this country stands.

Norioch

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1235 on: October 05, 2018, 11:41:18 AM »
Kavanaugh is radically conservative, but more importantly for Trump he's strongly on the side of broad interpretation of executive powers. He'll rule that sitting presidents can't be indicted, he'll rule that presidents can pardon themselves, and he'll rule that presidential pardons protect against prosecution for state-level crimes. That's why he, specifically, was nominated by Trump. It's to protect Trump, his family, and everyone in his cabinet and Congress who will be implicated for treason when Mueller eventually releases his findings. That is, if Mueller is ever even allowed to release his findings. With former swing vote Kennedy gone, the hope left for the Supreme Court stopping this is Roberts, and even he is only the tiniest sliver of hope. It's looking very likely that no Republican will face any consequences whatsoever for their crimes.

anisotropy

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1236 on: October 05, 2018, 11:53:16 AM »
Men who want to be allies?
Stop engaging.
Please.
It’s NOT HELPING.

I have difficultly letting counterfactual attacks be used to cause people offense, without speaking up.  Would you prefer the entire world just let the red pill people do their own thing as loudly and publicly as they want to?  From my perspective, arguing with anisotropy about this is like being a counterprotestor at a white supremacy rally.  Man or woman doesn't matter, someone needs to stand up and say "this is not okay." 

But not everyone.  For anyone who is uncomfortable with this topic, by all means please protect yourselves by limiting your exposure to ugly content. 

In fact, for struggling survivors of sexual assault, I recommend you just totally avoid national news for at least the next week.  Shit's about to go down.

Sol, for what it's worth, I applaud you for this. We may not agree on the way I formulated the case or that what I presented are counterfactual, but your behavior is admirable.

You know what, just to settle this, I will reach out to experts in this field, whether that be Statistics or Sexual violence. Give me sometime, if I am wrong I will surely apologize to you and everyone else. Thanks.

Sol, I hear that you are doing what you can to try to address a huge issue, and at the same time, as a woman, what you say here does not feel like allyship at all. Your arguments upthread did, but this does not.

Please listen to this. I realize it sucks, as you are very actively trying to be an ally. I would not have sleuthed through my email trying to find one of my old logins if I did not respect your opinions and your intentions. I even occasionally chose to engage a troll or two to test my communication skills, if I've got the bandwidth and the time. I understand the temptation, and there can be a time and place for it - you often hit that line, and I appreciate your voice. Up until this last post I even felt you were mostly pretty solidly doing awesome.

Women don't get to chose to walk away from what is happening with Kavenaugh. We live it, every day of our lives. We also live the experience of being told to go away in online contexts. I know it is not your intention, and at the same time what I felt when I read your comment, and the thread that came before it, was the following:

1) almost all of the outspoken women dropped out of the conversation several pages ago. This was not a coincidence.
2) The statistics debate is a deliberate derail and consists of a couple red pill bros deliberately reframing the debate to silence it. I wish that the ally men had enough experience with what it is like to be a woman on the internet to see that.
3) YAY! several women directly called it out, now the smart/not awful men will stop feeding it!
4) HOLY FUCK one of the more well spoken non-awful men just accidentally told us women to get off the internet and leave it for the boys to argue so he can argue and rescue all us damsels in distress from the feels and the bad math monsters of the deep, and he has no idea what he just said/implied/tapped into/added to our fuck this shit 2018 overwhelm.

I stopped reading the statistics pages ago, but was increasingly upset by how many allies were letting the derail happen. Your response to being asked to stop feels worse then the red pill nonsense that crept in here, because it comes from someone who is generally worth respecting. #listentowomen. We're trying to tell you something you need to hear - stop engaging with the math, in this place, in this time. There will be another time, probably in this thread, where your voice will be welcome, and supportive. The stats are no longer it. And when women tell you to stop, stop.

Pretty much this. This whole thread makes me reconsider mutachianism if the red pillers are indeed long standing members of this community.

I have updated the statistics thread for those interested, read the Prof’s comment, and if you so desire, we can continue the statistics related conversation there, as some here find it offensive. Bottom line, and I quote :“As far as I could see (from a quick glance), your calculations are correct (up to rounding error). You framed it fine. There is no logic trap.” “The 26% and 5% are conditional probabilities for two different events, and either one may (in general) be larger or smaller than the other. “

So no, I was not spewing “counterfactual attacks” or “derailing the conversation out of bad intention” or “red pill nonsense” as some members assert here. A genuine issue needed to be addressed, namely, most people think of the implied guilty rate of 2-10% false allegation in the wrong way.

I understand I have unpopular opinions here, in fact I have unpopular opinions EVERYWHERE, precisely because I don’t choose sides, I don’t let ideology dictate how things should be, I am only concerned with how things are.

You’ve heard of Galileo and Copernicus ya? What did they do? They were also accused of spreading lies and offensive/dangerous ideas by the dominating groups because it went against their dogma.

In this thread alone I have been called, both implicitly and explicitly, a “troll”, “like being at a white supremacy rally”, “red pill bro”, “awful”, because I presented logically, against dogma and prevailing notion, what 2-10% false allegation translates into when we consider if a person is guilty based on a single accusation.

I see these as serious accusations, and once again, it is amazing to see such serious accusations levelled, casually, not only without adducing a shred of supporting evidence, but also in the face of contrary evidence.

I have said MULTIPLE TIMES I oppose BK, that Dr. Ford is more believable, and with additional accusations the guilty likelihood would go much higher very quickly (70% given 2). How these made me a “red pill bro” still elude me.

I got lucky this time that my framing turned out to be correct and logical, but what if I were wrong, would that make me guilty of spewing “counterfactual attacks” or “derailing the conversation out of malice” or “red pill nonsense”?? No that would simply mean I made a logical error at the time. Did you notice how I began doubting my own conclusion and offered to reach out to experts? Is that something a troll would do?

Now let’s look at your actions throughout:
Oh you don’t agree with us? Here, let us just put these stickers on your forehead because we can’t possibly be wrong.

Some one said my calculation “give the other side credence” and “provided them with ammunition”. Let me ask you this, what is more important: winning by being wrong or simply being right? Are you like Trump?

How would you feel if I accused you of being trump supporters because you shared his idea that facts don’t matter as long as you get what you want?

And to those that condone and even encourage such behavior, aka the “allies”. Shame on you. Your behavior is no less shameful and despicable, for you have traded in reason and integrity for dogma and zealotry. If we don’t present the objective reality as is, reflexive virtue signaling ultimately dilutes the causes it purports to support.

Partisanship has no place when it comes to objective reality. It seems you have learned the wrong lessons from the likes of Trump. We are all entitled to our opinions, but we share ONE objective reality. What you are doing is effectively misrepresenting what the numbers tell us.

If this is the path you have chosen, then I am exactly where I belong: alone, between you and the objective reality you seek to dress up.
« Last Edit: October 05, 2018, 11:56:58 AM by anisotropy »

GuitarStv

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1237 on: October 05, 2018, 11:55:12 AM »
Let's say Kavanaugh loses the vote tomorrow (unlikely, but possible). Then let's say Republicans remain in control of the Senate on Nov 7th (looking likely). We'll be left with an angry, vindictive President intent on punishing the left as well as an irate Senate majority. Trump will nominate the youngest, most far right candidate he can find, that the angry Republican senators will be more than happy to ram through.

Oh no!  You mean he might nominate someone just like Bret Kavenaugh?  As far as I can tell, this is the youngest most far-right candidate that Trump could find . . . but we probably won't be talking about this because Republican senators are more than happy to ram him through.

Fireball

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1238 on: October 05, 2018, 12:11:12 PM »
Political climate: The process began with a moderately conservative nominee, and a disinterested republican base heading into the midterms. As things stand, we have now have a fired up republican base, along with a fired up conservative nominee who its safe to assume will be affected by his treatment throughout this process if he makes it onto the SC.

This is looking like a gross miscalculation by the left, and a poorly selected hill to die on so to speak.

Meh. Midterms are a month away which is an eternity in this news cycle.
« Last Edit: October 05, 2018, 12:26:32 PM by Fireball »

JLee

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1239 on: October 05, 2018, 12:21:33 PM »

So, worst case scenario, same as we have now, except the replacement nominee (possibly) won't be a rapist?
Cute, but no.
You'd end up with a much more conservative judge on the Supreme Court.

And "rapist"? Really?
If you're actually going to attach yourself to a cause that can disqualify this nominee, it'd probably be prudent to attach yourself to one that can actually be corroborated, like say perjury about his drinking habits. I know liberals aren't a fan of the whole "innocent until proven guilty" thing, but like it or not, it's still one of the core principals on which this country stands.

If you're rich and white (and male), yeah it sure is!

If you're not, nobody seems to give a shit.

partgypsy

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1240 on: October 05, 2018, 12:39:24 PM »
The innocent unless you are proven guilty, applies only to criminal trials. It does not apply to job applications or civil trials.

He was being asked additional follow up questions, under oath, to see whether he is fit for a position that is the highest in his profession, which demands good temperament, impartiality, and nuance. He blew it.

Regarding civil trials, It's preponderance of evidence. Although you say "no evidence", in both civil and criminal trials sworn statements of witnesses, conflicting testimony by the defense, and lying or refusing are all evidence that can be used to determine guilt or innocence. Regarding that, Kavanaugh also blew it.


JLee

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1241 on: October 05, 2018, 12:50:52 PM »
The innocent unless you are proven guilty, applies only to criminal trials. It does not apply to job applications or civil trials.

He was being asked additional follow up questions, under oath, to see whether he is fit for a position that is the highest in his profession, which demands good temperament, impartiality, and nuance. He blew it.

Regarding civil trials, It's preponderance of evidence. Although you say "no evidence", in both civil and criminal trials sworn statements of witnesses, conflicting testimony by the defense, and lying or refusing are all evidence that can be used to determine guilt or innocence. Regarding that, Kavanaugh also blew it.

YES.

Also, people are acting as if this is something that Kavanaugh has by right -- that if he doesn't get nominated, someone took something from him.  That is so very far from the truth...

GuitarStv

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1242 on: October 05, 2018, 12:54:51 PM »
The innocent unless you are proven guilty, applies only to criminal trials. It does not apply to job applications or civil trials.

He was being asked additional follow up questions, under oath, to see whether he is fit for a position that is the highest in his profession, which demands good temperament, impartiality, and nuance. He blew it.

Regarding civil trials, It's preponderance of evidence. Although you say "no evidence", in both civil and criminal trials sworn statements of witnesses, conflicting testimony by the defense, and lying or refusing are all evidence that can be used to determine guilt or innocence. Regarding that, Kavanaugh also blew it.

YES.

Also, people are acting as if this is something that Kavanaugh has by right -- that if he doesn't get nominated, someone took something from him.  That is so very far from the truth...

Oddly enough though, these people who believe that Kavenaugh has the right to be a supreme court judge were fine with purely partisan blocking of the same 'right' for Garland.  Even though he didn't have a shady history of sexual assault, and was generally liked/well spoken of by the Republican party.  Fucking hypocrites.

laserlady

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1243 on: October 05, 2018, 12:55:10 PM »
The fact that you and others see wanting to investigate credible accusations of sexual misconduct as a partisan attack seems to be a big part of the problem here.  The right thing to do doesn't change just because it happens to benefit the other party.  But conservatives just assume that liberals are only doing this because it benefits them in order to give themselves an excuse to go all in on partisanship, even going so far as to have their Supreme Court nominee go off the rails with some conspiracy theory rant in front of the Senate and the entire country.

Sent from my moto x4 using Tapatalk

Please call them Republicans, not conservatives.  Not all conservatives have gone to crazy-town with the Republican party (for that matter, not all Republicans have gone crazy either, even though the party leadership has).  I know plenty of conservatives who are appalled at the devolution of the GOP, and I doubt I'm the only conservative who voted "nay" on this poll.

anisotropy

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1244 on: October 05, 2018, 12:56:02 PM »
Political climate: The process began with a moderately conservative nominee, and a disinterested republican base heading into the midterms. As things stand, we have now have a fired up republican base, along with a fired up conservative nominee who its safe to assume will be affected by his treatment throughout this process if he makes it onto the SC.

This is looking like a gross miscalculation by the left, and a poorly selected hill to die on so to speak.

Meh. Midterms are a month away which is an eternity in this news cycle.

I read something similar on 538 last night. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-kavanaugh-helping-republicans-midterm-chances/

Nate concluded it's likely as far as senate races are concerned.

gaja

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1245 on: October 05, 2018, 01:08:08 PM »
This might be a small comfort in this strange world, where attempted rape is renamed horseplay:

The Nobel Peace Price was today awarded Nadia Murad and Denis Mukwege for their fight against rape:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/05/world/nobel-peace-prize.html?smprod=nytcore-ipad&smid=nytcore-ipad-share

sol

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1246 on: October 05, 2018, 01:20:08 PM »
Looks like Collins is voting to confirm, as expected.  Kavanaugh will sit on the Supreme Court.

She's currently on tv talking about how great it is.  She apparently thinks he's going to be not only totally nonpartisan, but a liberal vote on the court who will support women's rights and limit executive power. 

I think she's going to live to regret her decision, when he turns out to be everything he claims to be instead of what she envisions he will become.
« Last Edit: October 05, 2018, 01:32:30 PM by sol »

JLee

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1247 on: October 05, 2018, 01:21:25 PM »
Looks like Collins is voting to confirm, as expected.  Kavanaugh will sit on the Supreme Court.

I am starting to wonder if we've reached a tipping point that we can't recover from.

annnnnnooooon

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1248 on: October 05, 2018, 01:33:20 PM »
Looks like Collins is voting to confirm, as expected.  Kavanaugh will sit on the Supreme Court.

I am starting to wonder if we've reached a tipping point that we can't recover from.

I come from the mountaineering/wilderness professional subculture. I was raised to, and trained to assess the facts with as clear an eye as I can, and then focus not on what is most likely, but on what is most likely to give me the best chance of the results I want. When you're trapped in a slot canyon with your arm under a boulder, you figure out how to cut your arm off with the damn pocketknife. Most of the time you will die, but unless you can focus on that next step, you've guaranteed your death.

Edited to add: In this case we figure out how the hell to win the senate, and how to get Manchin to not throw away his base, and then we reassess.
« Last Edit: October 05, 2018, 01:36:05 PM by annnnnnooooon »

Norioch

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Re: Brett Kavanaguh: Yay or Nay?
« Reply #1249 on: October 05, 2018, 01:37:28 PM »
Looks like Collins is voting to confirm, as expected.  Kavanaugh will sit on the Supreme Court.

She's currently on tv talking about how great it is.  She apparently thinks he's going to be not only totally nonpartisan, but a liberal vote on the court who will support women's rights and limit executive power. 

I think she's going to live to regret her decision, when he turns out to be everything he claims to be instead of what she envisions he will become.

She knows exactly what he is.