My mistake. I wasn't clear what I was meaning. The theory I was referring to that I believe you subscribe to from our conversation is the theory that gun advocates, despite polls, don't really want any change and/or that there are a tiny number of moderate gun advocates. It seemed that you believed that gun advocates in any significant percentages wouldn't be swayed even if small, incremental changes were made, and wouldn't really support them. If I am wrong on any of this, please correct me. That was what I was meaning.
I see, and generally, yes you are correct. As a theory is nothing more than an attempt to explain the available evidence, I suppose you could call that view a theory.
Polls are great and make people feel good about themselves when they give the answer that gives them whatever validation they want. Actions are what matter in the real world. History provides no evidence of gun rights proponents advocating for or actually supporting in any way what they claim via polls they support.
Is there a reason anyone should believe the polls despite there being no evidence to support those polls and in the face of overwhelming historical evidence showing the exact opposite?
I mean, I would say that it's definitely speculation and a theory on my part for sure as well. The reasons I think it might be legit are as follows:
Polls do say it's true. Of course, I can't guarantee any poll is legit, but I tend to trust the results of polls unless given a compelling reason to doubt it. Additionally, this is not a single poll, but poll after poll after poll.
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2017/oct/03/chris-abele/do-90-americans-support-background-checks-all-gun-/As mentioned before, it seems the political landscape is shifting with the declining membership in the NRA. I take this to mean that many gun owners are getting tired of the more extremist positions on things or at least are reticent to support how these people are acting/presenting gun owners. This would seem to indicate to me that they might be open to some changes.
I'm also not sure what the overwhelming historical evidence is of what I'm understanding your claim to be - that pro-gun people would muddy the water if something about background checks were proposed (how I am interpreting your quote from before of: "For example, all these self reported gun advocates that support better background checks can claim to support that, safe in the knowledge that no such better background check laws are ever likely to pass. If such laws are proposed, the detail of such laws can be rationally and quite legitimately argued against to the point that the law will never pass.")
I'm not sure of the evidence because I don't believe I've seen many/any instances of something being proposed of a very limited scope on this topic. Instead, it almost always seems to come as part of a package of something bigger. For example, since we're on a Biden post, I did a quick review of Biden's stance on gun control straight off of his campaign page - he highlights the assault weapons ban as a win and compares how assault weapons should be treated to how fully automatic weapons are treated (regulated to the point that it's not too far off from a full ban). Anyways, all that to say, from what I've seen of things proposed by gun control politicians in America, it's never simple. It's never limited. There are always other parts and pieces to the legislation being proposed. I would support changes to gun background checks to improve things. I would not support it if it were presented as a part of a renewed Clinton assault weapons ban - not because I don't support the change in background checks specifically.
All that to say, I'm not aware of much evidence that is overwhelming to show that pro-gun people always muddy the waters that would make me confident they would do it again on a background check bill. I may be misunderstanding your point or missing some evidence, but that's just where I see it now. I will say that if you're asking for pro-gun people to go out and write their congress people to demand that background checks be improved - then I do agree with you there. It's probably not going to happen. They are pro-gun - they're probably going to be more concerned with gun rights being removed than with demanding improved background checks. However, I do not think that would translate into significant protests and arguments against a focused piece of gun control legislation just about improving background checks. I think that a lot of pro-gun people - maybe not as much as evidenced in the polls, but a solid majority - would be fine with it and wouldn't, say, turn on their representative they liked for supporting it or protest it or what have you, but again, I acknowledge it's just a theory.