OK, my prediction is that the next President will be one of:
Trump
Harris
Warren
Buttigieg
For various reasons, I don't think anyone else is going to make it.
Long way to go, and stuff could happen, of course.
Updating my prediction from last June, when about 25-30 candidates were running.
Obviously Harris dropped out. I no longer thing she will become our next President.
When I included Warren in the list above, I didn't really think much of her candidacy for various reasons, but I couldn't fully convince myself she couldn't win. After the most recent debate, I don't think she can win the Presidency.
So my list of last names of our next President is down to:
Trump
Buttigieg
I know 538.com currently has Biden and Sanders as the most likely to get the nomination. So by my list above, I'm predicting that if either of them wins the primary nomination, they will lose to Trump in the general.
I'm not necessarily a Buttigieg acolyte. I just think everyone else can't win the general.
I note that Buttigieg is a male under 50. You have to go back to Jimmy Carter in 1976 before you get a winning Democrat who didn't meet that criteria when becoming elected to the Presidency for the first time.
I could easily be wrong. I've been wrong about other predictions I've made in this thread (like Harris being a stronger candidate and Williamson dropping out first, among others).
Probably the biggest risk to my prediction is the 15% chance that 538.com currently assigns to no candidate accumulating a majority of delegates by the convention. If that happens, I think it is pretty hard to predict who the nominee ends up being.