Author Topic: 2020 POTUS Candidates  (Read 181643 times)

Nick_Miller

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1500 on: November 26, 2019, 08:20:18 AM »
So Nick Miller, who do you vote for? I feel the same way, but am having trouble seeing a candidate. Why isn't Kamala Harris doing better? She has been elected statewide in California at least twice (attorney general and u.s. senate). I have some concerns about Mayor Pete's inexperience. The others are too old which puts so much pressure on the vice president pick. I just can't warm up to Klobuchar. She doesn't seem decisive enough for me.

That's the question, isn't it?

I have concerns with Pete's experience too. I mean, if he was a 40-something governor, I think he'd be leading the field. I still support him because I think he would surround himself with top people, and really all presidents have to ultimately rely on the expertise of others, but yes I wish he was older and more experienced.

All this being said, I still don't understand why Cory Booker's campaign has never caught on. I really like the guy. I know there are criticisms of him with corporate interests, but as you stated, everyone has a flaw. Booker's platform is very progressive, and I find him charming, funny, and strong when he speaks. He has a great voice. He's tall. Toss in the fact that he can talk about Star Trek, goes to comic cons, is vegan (I think it would bring a fresh perspective from the bully pulpit), and yeah, African American, I mean they are all positives for me.

I am considering give him a donation to help him make the next debate stage, but part of me says he has no chance, for whatever reasons.

Nick_Miller

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1501 on: November 26, 2019, 08:27:37 AM »
So it's pretty much...

1) Bernie - too old, heart attack, and socialist
2) Biden - too old, horrible speaker, lots of baggage from long career
3)Warren - a woman (gasp), too radical, too "academic-sounding"
4) Pete - too young/inexperienced, gay (gasp), no support from PoC
5) Kamala - a woman (gasp), lots of baggage as prosecutor, changes her mind a lot
6) Klobuchar - a woman (gasp), very moderate, boring, trembles/shakes
7) Yang - too young/inexperienced, too weird, tells horrible jokes
8) Steyer - too billionairey, too old, too boring, has baggage that Biden alluded to
9) Booker - I just don't see the problems, but he obviously has lots of them

FIPurpose

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1502 on: November 26, 2019, 08:28:51 AM »
Right and without Bezos, that company was going to go under. All of those employees' jobs were saved by Bezos' money. Maybe you can try and fight it, but that bias is going to eat into a person's brain. The idea that "well he can't be all that bad". It's why we all laugh at any scientist who publishes diet research being funded by Coca-cola, Kraft, or whomever. It doesn't matter if it's science, they're going to have a bias in their paper whether conscious or subconscious.


You’re just parroting Trump’s false claims that these newspapers are providing fake news stories.
In so doing you’re helping to deny the facts that come forth regarding the impeachment and Trump’s misconduct.

Maybe the truth has a liberal bias.

You’re muddying the waters by comparing Tucker Carlson to a Wapo reporter.
You can’t compare Tucker Carlson’s role at Fox to a reporter’s job at the Washington Post as being equivalent examples of bias toward the media owner’s views.
Firstly Tucker Carlson is all opinion and conspiracy theory which is what he’s hired to spout by Fox.
Whereas a journalist has a wall of separation from the advertising and the owner of the company so as to stick to reporting facts.
yes there is some bias that every reporter brings to a story.
There’s also editors whose job it is is to ensure reporting is done factually without bias.
There’s an entire professional rulebook regarding sourcing.
News organizations have to be as factual and honest as possible because the reputation is on the line..

Hey I think I've now been accused of being a secret liberal and a secret conservative on this board!

I would still believe a WaPo story 50x over anything Fox News puts out. However, I'm also going to recognize that they have an Amazon slant. That's going to include being soft on Amazon and will continue to cover politics in their own biased way. (I'll grant you, less biased than Tucker Carlson)

Here's an article on the WaPo continuing to only cover Bernie in a negative light: https://www.jacobinmag.com/2019/08/washington-post-bernie-sanders-media-2020-coverage

WaPo doesn't have to put out conspiracy theories to be biased. They can just control what or whom they don't cover. They'll use words around a Medicare-for-all plan as "unrealistic" while claiming other candidates' plans are "serious". No one has to tell the writers at WaPo what to write. They're there because that's what they write.

GuitarStv

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1503 on: November 26, 2019, 08:37:36 AM »
I think Warren would be a kick ass President. She is a phenomenal person. I knew her first from her personal finance books that she wrote with her daughter. Her formula for how much to spend for basic necessities, how much for other things, and how much to save was really helpful for me in looking at my own budget. Based on her background I think she understands the concerns of regular people (job and job security, finances, healthcare) better than most presidential candidates (most are honestly out of touch). Her issue is not so much age, but that she is female.  Recent poll indicated that 50% of men would have reservations voting for a woman (can't find reference now). Not that it doesn't mean she shouldn't be the candidate, but it is a handicap.

Yeah, but if she's the candidate we all have to listen to at least a year of overtly racist comments about Pocahontas from the President.  Ugh.

MKinVA

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1504 on: November 26, 2019, 08:39:50 AM »
Yeah, Corey Booker. I was concerned his mayorial campaign was funded by creeps like Jared Kushner's dad, but I need to get over it. They all get money from bad people. Okay, I will study up on Booker.

MKinVA

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1505 on: November 26, 2019, 08:49:11 AM »
I took the Washington Post quiz on who should I vote for and It came back Yang, Booker, Buttegieg. I wish the media and the campaigns would do sit down interviews like a Charlie Rose closed set (no audience). One on one, no running away from the questions, no time running out, no Chuck Todd talking more than the candidate, etc., in prime time. We might learn a thing or two. I think Rachel Maddow did some interviews with candidates like this on her show. I'll have to go back and see if they are available for rerun.

Poundwise

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1506 on: November 26, 2019, 09:08:12 AM »
I think Warren would be a kick ass President. She is a phenomenal person. I knew her first from her personal finance books that she wrote with her daughter. Her formula for how much to spend for basic necessities, how much for other things, and how much to save was really helpful for me in looking at my own budget. Based on her background I think she understands the concerns of regular people (job and job security, finances, healthcare) better than most presidential candidates (most are honestly out of touch). Her issue is not so much age, but that she is female.  Recent poll indicated that 50% of men would have reservations voting for a woman (can't find reference now). Not that it doesn't mean she shouldn't be the candidate, but it is a handicap.

Her book The Two Income Trap really spoke to me and helped a lot of other stay-at-home parents. She has been a SAHM, a WAHM, a WOHM, and a grandmother. She's far and away my favorite candidate.  I guess some might characterize her as a flipflopper or a copycat, but I think that the evolution of her politics has been natural and rational, and I like that she studies other peoples' ideas and refines them (and I think she's been good about giving credit, for example to Bernie and Inslee). I also trust that if M4A does not go as planned, she'll be alert enough to adjust it as needed. She's principled but not stubborn if that makes sense.  She'll also bring dignity and weight back to the Presidency. I do worry that the country is not ready to follow where she leads, but at least she is prepared to do the work to fumigate and Trump-proof the government as best she can.

I do like Biden too.  I recently heard how some of his gaffes could be explained by his early struggles with stuttering.  I'm not a fan of returning to business as usual, and he wasn't always better than the times, but I still can't help being fond of the guy, who is like a well-meaning, goofy retriever. He really is ancient though, and so is Sanders. My own parents slowed down a tremendous amount between their mid seventies and early eighties and I saw the same happening among the majority of their friends.


YttriumNitrate

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1507 on: November 26, 2019, 09:41:30 AM »
That's the question, isn't it?
I have concerns with Pete's experience too. I mean, if he was a 40-something governor, I think he'd be leading the field. I still support him because I think he would surround himself with top people, and really all presidents have to ultimately rely on the expertise of others, but yes I wish he was older and more experienced.
Looking back at the last three successful Democratic nominees, there was a one term governor, a first term senator, and the outlier Clinton who was in his fourth term as governor in his mid-40s. I don't really see his lack of experience as much of a hindrance.

Kris

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1508 on: November 26, 2019, 09:53:18 AM »
That's the question, isn't it?
I have concerns with Pete's experience too. I mean, if he was a 40-something governor, I think he'd be leading the field. I still support him because I think he would surround himself with top people, and really all presidents have to ultimately rely on the expertise of others, but yes I wish he was older and more experienced.
Looking back at the last three successful Democratic nominees, there was a one term governor, a first term senator, and the outlier Clinton who was in his fourth term as governor in his mid-40s. I don't really see his lack of experience as much of a hindrance.

Those are still pretty freaking different from a mayor of a small city.

And arguably, given the incompetent shitshow that is Trump and his administration, the person charged with getting things back on the right track after that would benefit from some actual experience.

MKinVA

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1509 on: November 26, 2019, 10:10:34 AM »
I agree we need someone with experience not just not Trump. Governors get a lot of executive experience running the show without a tremendous amount of interference from the legislative branch on a day to day basis. They have to pick the right people for agency and program heads, deal with emergencies like hurricanes, floods, strikes, tornadoes, climate change, etc., make planning decisions for the future of their states, and try, try, try to bring jobs to their communities. If they do a lousy job, I hope we hear about it when they are running for president. U. S. Senators are privy to a lot of international information related to security and commerce that we don't hear about, that many of them go to the grave not revealing. I am not advocating for business as usual because I too want big structural changes, but I feel we have made the mistake of thinking we know what some candidates stand for only to find out they have a different agenda or skills when it comes to implementation.

KBecks

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1510 on: November 26, 2019, 10:42:21 AM »
I think Warren would be a kick ass President. She is a phenomenal person. I knew her first from her personal finance books that she wrote with her daughter. Her formula for how much to spend for basic necessities, how much for other things, and how much to save was really helpful for me in looking at my own budget. Based on her background I think she understands the concerns of regular people (job and job security, finances, healthcare) better than most presidential candidates (most are honestly out of touch). Her issue is not so much age, but that she is female.  Recent poll indicated that 50% of men would have reservations voting for a woman (can't find reference now). Not that it doesn't mean she shouldn't be the candidate, but it is a handicap.

Yeah, but if she's the candidate we all have to listen to at least a year of overtly racist comments about Pocahontas from the President.  Ugh.

I'm sure there will be new material for whomever the candidate turns out to be.

KBecks

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1511 on: November 26, 2019, 10:44:23 AM »

Those are still pretty freaking different from a mayor of a small city.


Agreed, and it's very possible that international leaders will look at the young and inexperienced mayor and say --- we can roll right over this guy.

W had what's-his-name around for "gravitas" -- oh yes, Dick Cheney.  Buttigieg (did I spell that right?) would absolutely need people on his team who know what the hell they are doing, and who are loyal.

Considering international relations, how would the Islamic State, North Korea, China, and others react to the United States having a homosexual president?  Would any of them interpret it as a sign of weakness?

Link:  13 countries where being gay is punishable by death
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2019/06/14/countries-where-being-gay-is-legally-punishable-by-death/39574685/
I'm not saying that this is right, I'm saying that it's the reality that Buttgieg would need to deal with.
« Last Edit: November 26, 2019, 10:55:41 AM by KBecks »

Nick_Miller

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1512 on: November 26, 2019, 11:00:44 AM »
Lunch break is winding down, and I am reminded (yet again) that Leftist Twitter is just so useless.

Holy shit, it's just a huge circular firing squad without nuance or objectivity. Just a bunch of radicalized folks trying (or "tryna?" lol) to dunk on each others' candidates with drive-by comments and juvenile name-calling instead of legitimate invitations for dialogue.

I don't see how this is good for society or any kind of civil discourse.

Yes, I realize I just described Twitter overall.

MKinVA

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1513 on: November 26, 2019, 11:14:55 AM »
I just wasted my lunch watching Andrea Mitchell show because Kamala Harris was to be interviewed. The interview amounted to: are you attacking Mayor Pete for being gay? Are you attacking him for being just a mayor? What do you really think about Mayor Pete? You could just see on her face Harris was like WTF? This is my interview. But she was nice and answered the questions and ran out of time when it came to actually talking about Harris' agenda. I am SO fed up with the media. New saying: We get the government the media gives us. Ugh.

KBecks

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1514 on: November 26, 2019, 11:18:33 AM »
New saying: We get the government the media gives us. Ugh.

I feel like that's exactly how we got Trump as the nominee in 2016.

Scandium

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1515 on: November 26, 2019, 11:35:46 AM »
I do like Biden too.  I recently heard how some of his gaffes could be explained by his early struggles with stuttering.  I'm not a fan of returning to business as usual, and he wasn't always better than the times, but I still can't help being fond of the guy, who is like a well-meaning, goofy retriever. He really is ancient though, and so is Sanders. My own parents slowed down a tremendous amount between their mid seventies and early eighties and I saw the same happening among the majority of their friends.

I've been wondering if there actually are people who like Biden, and why (except liberal billionaires). So now I found one! Are you a billionaire? Is there a single thing to like biden for? I just don't get it.
-pro iraq war.
- pro DOMA
- has supported horrible drug war legislation his whole career (with a drug-abusing son!)
- head of the committee attacking anita hill.
- Spent 40+ swampy years in the senate bought and paid for by every Delaware bank and credit  card company.
- gropes, touches and smells women. Even after being mocked for it he can't stop himself! Look at these, ewww! http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2015/02/9-times-joe-biden-whispered-in-womens-ears.html
- thought the patriot act was too mild, and supported militarization of cops
-supported various anti-immigrant issues Trump could have been on board with

And BTW, he brags about being the poorest senator? He's been doing the bidding of massive banks for decades, he hasn't even been able to make any money from it!? How incompetent is it possible to be!

https://www.vox.com/2019/1/10/18173132/joe-biden-hillary-clinton-2020
https://www.jacobinmag.com/2019/04/joe-biden-2020-presidential-campaign-record
« Last Edit: November 26, 2019, 11:40:24 AM by Scandium »

MKinVA

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1516 on: November 26, 2019, 11:42:57 AM »
Scandium 100%. I don't understand Biden either. The go along to get along democrat that should have died out with Hilary (sorry those of you who think Hilary was such a progressive). They take a position barely left of the Republicans and we are supposed to applaud them? I mean how can you  say you support human rights, but not for gay people? I just cannot abide these dems who insist they have evolved on certain basic rights issues. What have they evolved into? Empty shells.

J Boogie

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1517 on: November 26, 2019, 01:04:17 PM »
So Nick Miller, who do you vote for? I feel the same way, but am having trouble seeing a candidate. Why isn't Kamala Harris doing better? She has been elected statewide in California at least twice (attorney general and u.s. senate). I have some concerns about Mayor Pete's inexperience. The others are too old which puts so much pressure on the vice president pick. I just can't warm up to Klobuchar. She doesn't seem decisive enough for me.

I don't think Kamala can come up with a decent response to criticism about her record as an overbearing and callous prosecutor.




DavidAnnArbor

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1518 on: November 26, 2019, 02:11:04 PM »

Here's an article on the WaPo continuing to only cover Bernie in a negative light: https://www.jacobinmag.com/2019/08/washington-post-bernie-sanders-media-2020-coverage


That's an interesting article and is probably largely true regarding the bias against Sanders and how the interests of the working class are largely overlooked in most of the media.
Medicare4All is a difficult pill to swallow and could become a big piñata to be associated with in an election. Voters who are unsure of giving up the private healthcare plan they already know are going to see Medicare4All as too risky.

PathtoFIRE

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1519 on: November 26, 2019, 02:19:16 PM »

MKinVA

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1520 on: November 26, 2019, 03:58:11 PM »
Good one, PathtoFIRE. David, I do think Medicare4All is too big a pill for most voters. What if Warren, or others, said Look, I don't have a magic wand and I know getting this through Congress will be a challenge. I may not get it done during my 1st administration, but isn't healthcare for all a basic right however we get there? Doesn't everyone under the age of 50 expect that one day they will be able to get healthcare regardless of their job situation? Pre-existing conditions and all? Let's start down this road based on our values, based on what we want the future to look like and work together to get it done. The old how do you eat an elephant speech. One bite at a time.

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1521 on: November 26, 2019, 05:06:42 PM »
Yes she could describe it that way and talk up the public option and beefing up the subsidies and cost sharing reductions, or talk about lowering the out of pocket costs.

Poundwise

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1522 on: November 26, 2019, 08:01:24 PM »
I do like Biden too.  I recently heard how some of his gaffes could be explained by his early struggles with stuttering.  I'm not a fan of returning to business as usual, and he wasn't always better than the times, but I still can't help being fond of the guy, who is like a well-meaning, goofy retriever. He really is ancient though, and so is Sanders. My own parents slowed down a tremendous amount between their mid seventies and early eighties and I saw the same happening among the majority of their friends.

I've been wondering if there actually are people who like Biden, and why (except liberal billionaires). So now I found one! Are you a billionaire? Is there a single thing to like biden for? I just don't get it.
-pro iraq war.
- pro DOMA
- has supported horrible drug war legislation his whole career (with a drug-abusing son!)
- head of the committee attacking anita hill.
- Spent 40+ swampy years in the senate bought and paid for by every Delaware bank and credit  card company.
- gropes, touches and smells women. Even after being mocked for it he can't stop himself! Look at these, ewww! http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2015/02/9-times-joe-biden-whispered-in-womens-ears.html
- thought the patriot act was too mild, and supported militarization of cops
-supported various anti-immigrant issues Trump could have been on board with

And BTW, he brags about being the poorest senator? He's been doing the bidding of massive banks for decades, he hasn't even been able to make any money from it!? How incompetent is it possible to be!

https://www.vox.com/2019/1/10/18173132/joe-biden-hillary-clinton-2020
https://www.jacobinmag.com/2019/04/joe-biden-2020-presidential-campaign-record

Ah, I can't argue. You're right, you're right, but I just like the guy. His policies, not so much. I didn't say I'd vote for him in the primary. It's complicated. In my lifetime, I've been the recipient of personal kindness and friendship from older white men. Even if they were limited in understanding of how they perpetrated an unfair system, they were well-meaning sorts, and I can't hate them for not being able to leave the water they swam in. Biden reminds me of those guys.

On M4A, Warren couldn't water it down to a public option even if she wanted to because the Sanders people would have their knives out.  And anyway, M4A doesn't work its cost saving magic if one keeps the public option for long. With a permanent or long term public option, all that will happen is that the private insurers will cherry pick and lemon drop their way into getting the healthy patients, sending the public option into a death spiral.

In her first year plan, she'd need only 50 votes to cover all children under 18 and all families making at or below 200% of the federal poverty level for free.  And anybody over 50 could enter enhanced Medicare, and anybody else not covered could buy the public option.  This will be extremely attractive to families like mine, even though we have pretty good employer coverage.

Nick_Miller

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1523 on: November 26, 2019, 08:29:07 PM »
It might be an anomaly, but Quinnipiac just released a national poll that has Buttigieg at 16 percent. That's the first poll I know that has him in double digits nationally. Did the debate help him, or is this a one-timer?

The Quinnipiac numbers are: Biden 24%, Pete 16%, Warren 14% and Bernie 13%, with no one else over 3%.




maizeman

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1524 on: November 26, 2019, 10:49:00 PM »
It might be an anomaly, but Quinnipiac just released a national poll that has Buttigieg at 16 percent. That's the first poll I know that has him in double digits nationally. Did the debate help him, or is this a one-timer?

The Quinnipiac numbers are: Biden 24%, Pete 16%, Warren 14% and Bernie 13%, with no one else over 3%.

Politico/Morning Consult also has a new poll out that was conducted entirely after the debate and they've only got Buttigieg at 9%.
SurveyUSA released a poll today conducted before the debate that had Buttigieg at 12%

He's definitely on the upswing at the moment, but I don't know how much the debate has to do with it. I don't remember him having any particularly memorable moments, but maybe that's just me.

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1525 on: November 26, 2019, 11:05:53 PM »
It might be an anomaly, but Quinnipiac just released a national poll that has Buttigieg at 16 percent. That's the first poll I know that has him in double digits nationally. Did the debate help him, or is this a one-timer?

The Quinnipiac numbers are: Biden 24%, Pete 16%, Warren 14% and Bernie 13%, with no one else over 3%.

Politico/Morning Consult also has a new poll out that was conducted entirely after the debate and they've only got Buttigieg at 9%.
SurveyUSA released a poll today conducted before the debate that had Buttigieg at 12%

He's definitely on the upswing at the moment, but I don't know how much the debate has to do with it. I don't remember him having any particularly memorable moments, but maybe that's just me.
Not absolute proof but 538 before/after polling of the debate had Pete enjoying the largest net favorability boost (+6.3 percentage points; second highest absolute gain was Harris(!) with a +3.1 percentage point increase):
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/democratic-debate-november-poll/

maizeman

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1526 on: November 27, 2019, 06:50:06 AM »
It might be an anomaly, but Quinnipiac just released a national poll that has Buttigieg at 16 percent. That's the first poll I know that has him in double digits nationally. Did the debate help him, or is this a one-timer?

The Quinnipiac numbers are: Biden 24%, Pete 16%, Warren 14% and Bernie 13%, with no one else over 3%.

Politico/Morning Consult also has a new poll out that was conducted entirely after the debate and they've only got Buttigieg at 9%.
SurveyUSA released a poll today conducted before the debate that had Buttigieg at 12%

He's definitely on the upswing at the moment, but I don't know how much the debate has to do with it. I don't remember him having any particularly memorable moments, but maybe that's just me.
Not absolute proof but 538 before/after polling of the debate had Pete enjoying the largest net favorability boost (+6.3 percentage points; second highest absolute gain was Harris(!) with a +3.1 percentage point increase):
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/democratic-debate-november-poll/

I think you're looking at the reported change in "potential support", not net favorability. Which is anything is more direct evidence of a good debate so I'm not arguing against Buttigieg having a good debate.

For net favorability the article states:

"We also asked likely Democratic primary voters how favorably they felt about each candidate both before and after the debate. Andrew Yang and Klobuchar saw the largest jumps in net favorability (favorable rating minus unfavorable rating) — 4.6 points and 4.0 points, respectively. Buttigieg also made solid gains, climbing nearly 3 points in net favorability."

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1527 on: November 27, 2019, 11:52:32 AM »
What happens if this becomes a race whereby we have three or four candidates each winning around 20% of the primary votes in each of the states ?

maizeman

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1528 on: November 27, 2019, 11:53:29 AM »
Brokered convention.

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1529 on: November 27, 2019, 11:55:11 AM »
I don't know what a brokered convention is.

maizeman

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1530 on: November 27, 2019, 12:04:41 PM »
Oh! Sorry about that.

It means that all of the delegates from each candidate go to the convention. On the first ballot they have to vote for whichever candidate's supporters they were elected by (and they almost certainly would anyway since the campaigns get to pick who they are). If no candidate gets a majority of the vote, then the convention keeps voting again and again until someone gets a majority.

After the first ballot, delegates from individual candidates can switch their votes if they want (or if the candidate they are representing asks them to).

The other (really bad in my opinion) thing that happens is that after the first vote, 800 new "superdelegates" who weren't elected from any state but are just party bigwigs (democratic congresspeople, members of the actual DNC committee, that sort of thing) get to vote, and they can vote for whoever they want.

So if no one wins on the first ballot, on the second and subsequent ballots candidates running in the "establishment" lane will have a big advantage.

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1531 on: November 27, 2019, 12:29:25 PM »
Thanks. Sounds like it could still not get resolved if the three or four main candidates' delegates refuse to budge

FIPurpose

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1532 on: November 27, 2019, 12:33:06 PM »
So for an easy way of thinking about it, in a brokered convention superdelegates are going to split 80/20 in favor of the establishment pick.

That'll come out to a 10% bump. So anyone that makes it above 40% is likely to be coalesced around as the de facto winner unless some really anti-Bernie fever strikes the convention.

It can also become a complete jump ball. The convention could actually elect a completely different person if they wanted. I was reading about the nomination of Garfield in the late 1800's (so uh, it doesn't work quite the same way anymore). He actually wasn't even on the ballot or being considered for nomination. He just made such a fantastic stump speech for Senator Sherman that the delegates all decided to completely switch their vote for Garfield instead.

It's not completely out of the realm of possibility that if no one makes it, 2-3 decide to push their delegates to a compromise candidate like Deval Patrick. "Joe we're not going to support you. We really need you to back Patrick. Buttigieg, Kamala, and Klobuchar are all in. We can give your son a cabinet position. We appreciate you Joe."

PathtoFIRE

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1533 on: November 27, 2019, 01:32:03 PM »
I don't know what a brokered convention is.

Last season of Veep should give you an idea of how that should go.

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1534 on: November 27, 2019, 02:09:06 PM »

Kris

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1535 on: November 27, 2019, 02:29:12 PM »
What do you think about Obama not liking Bernie or Warren?

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/obama-bernie-sanders-2020-nomination_n_5ddd31a1e4b00149f724793b

Obama was always a centrist, despite eight years of relentless lies and fear-mongering by the right.

This is completely unsurprising.

pecunia

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1536 on: November 27, 2019, 03:43:51 PM »

-SNIP-


It can also become a complete jump ball. The convention could actually elect a completely different person if they wanted. I was reading about the nomination of Garfield in the late 1800's (so uh, it doesn't work quite the same way anymore). He actually wasn't even on the ballot or being considered for nomination. He just made such a fantastic stump speech for Senator Sherman that the delegates all decided to completely switch their vote for Garfield instead.

It's not completely out of the realm of possibility that if no one makes it, 2-3 decide to push their delegates to a compromise candidate like Deval Patrick. "Joe we're not going to support you. We really need you to back Patrick. Buttigieg, Kamala, and Klobuchar are all in. We can give your son a cabinet position. We appreciate you Joe."

Hillary could have a second run and this time we may be able to shout "Lock Them Up!" for both candidates.

Kris

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1537 on: November 27, 2019, 03:47:55 PM »

-SNIP-


It can also become a complete jump ball. The convention could actually elect a completely different person if they wanted. I was reading about the nomination of Garfield in the late 1800's (so uh, it doesn't work quite the same way anymore). He actually wasn't even on the ballot or being considered for nomination. He just made such a fantastic stump speech for Senator Sherman that the delegates all decided to completely switch their vote for Garfield instead.

It's not completely out of the realm of possibility that if no one makes it, 2-3 decide to push their delegates to a compromise candidate like Deval Patrick. "Joe we're not going to support you. We really need you to back Patrick. Buttigieg, Kamala, and Klobuchar are all in. We can give your son a cabinet position. We appreciate you Joe."

Hillary could have a second run and this time we may be able to shout "Lock Them Up!" for both candidates.

Yeah, except one of them has been thoroughly investigated and found not to be guilty.

Seriously, though, the DNC has a history of cluelessness and stupidity, but I do not think even they would be nuts enough to bring HRC back as the nominee.

FIPurpose

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1538 on: November 27, 2019, 04:13:35 PM »
I think if the race looks like it's going to go all the way to the convention, there's a chance that you won't see people dropping out. Candidates will use their influence over their delegates to barter for a position in the new admin. Buttigieg would absolutely be someone's VP, Kamala wants to be Attorney General, and Klobuchar wants a cabinet spot (or maybe a supreme court seat?).

As it look now:
Biden isn't going to gain any momentum, but I also don't see him dropping below 15%. He'll be 25-35%
Bernie will score a solid 15-25%
Warren will score a solid 15-25%
Kamala will have 5%
Klobuchar will have 5%
Buttigieg will have maybe closer to 10%
I would say Yang could grab 1-2%, but I don't know that he has any concentrated support anywhere to actually win any delegates.
Tulsi Looks like she might grab a few in a couple states.

If Kamala, Klobuchar, and Buttigieg move in unison they could be a serious voting bloc at the convention. And I think they all would prefer someone else over Biden or Bernie.

wenchsenior

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1539 on: November 27, 2019, 04:19:07 PM »
What do you think about Obama not liking Bernie or Warren?

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/obama-bernie-sanders-2020-nomination_n_5ddd31a1e4b00149f724793b

Obama was always a centrist, despite eight years of relentless lies and fear-mongering by the right.

This is completely unsurprising.

100% agree.

Scandium

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1540 on: November 27, 2019, 04:21:53 PM »
What do you think about Obama not liking Bernie or Warren?

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/obama-bernie-sanders-2020-nomination_n_5ddd31a1e4b00149f724793b
Obama is a 80s republican, or an extra hawkish version of European mainstream right. Not surprising.

maizeman

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1541 on: November 27, 2019, 08:46:12 PM »
I think if the race looks like it's going to go all the way to the convention, there's a chance that you won't see people dropping out. Candidates will use their influence over their delegates to barter for a position in the new admin. Buttigieg would absolutely be someone's VP, Kamala wants to be Attorney General, and Klobuchar wants a cabinet spot (or maybe a supreme court seat?).

As it look now:
Biden isn't going to gain any momentum, but I also don't see him dropping below 15%. He'll be 25-35%
Bernie will score a solid 15-25%
Warren will score a solid 15-25%
Kamala will have 5%
Klobuchar will have 5%
Buttigieg will have maybe closer to 10%
I would say Yang could grab 1-2%, but I don't know that he has any concentrated support anywhere to actually win any delegates.
Tulsi Looks like she might grab a few in a couple states.

If Kamala, Klobuchar, and Buttigieg move in unison they could be a serious voting bloc at the convention. And I think they all would prefer someone else over Biden or Bernie.

I think you are under estimating how effective IA and NH will likely be at winnowing the field. Bernie's 16-18% support probably isn't going anywhere (either up or down), but I predict Biden/Buttigieg/Harris/Klobuchar supporters are all going to rallying behind one candidate who seems the most viable by South Carolina at the latest.

To me the three big questions are:

1) Will Warren supporters behave like Sanders supporters (leading to a three way split that goes to the convention) or like Biden/Buttigieg/Harris/Klobuchar supporters (rally behind whoever appears to be taking the lead).

2) Does Bloomberg's strategy of blanketing super Tuesday states with ads pay off? (I'm guessing no because every attempt to skip the early states to date has failed, and a lot of people have tried. On the other hand, none of them have tried with hundreds of millions of dollars in ads, so I could be wrong.)

3) Does Yang place well enough in Iowa or NH to convert the "I really like him, but I don't think he can win" contingent into actual supporters by Super Tuesday?

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1542 on: November 27, 2019, 10:58:09 PM »
I think if the race looks like it's going to go all the way to the convention, there's a chance that you won't see people dropping out. Candidates will use their influence over their delegates to barter for a position in the new admin. Buttigieg would absolutely be someone's VP, Kamala wants to be Attorney General, and Klobuchar wants a cabinet spot (or maybe a supreme court seat?).

As it look now:
Biden isn't going to gain any momentum, but I also don't see him dropping below 15%. He'll be 25-35%
Bernie will score a solid 15-25%
Warren will score a solid 15-25%
Kamala will have 5%
Klobuchar will have 5%
Buttigieg will have maybe closer to 10%
I would say Yang could grab 1-2%, but I don't know that he has any concentrated support anywhere to actually win any delegates.
Tulsi Looks like she might grab a few in a couple states.

If Kamala, Klobuchar, and Buttigieg move in unison they could be a serious voting bloc at the convention. And I think they all would prefer someone else over Biden or Bernie.

I think you are under estimating how effective IA and NH will likely be at winnowing the field. Bernie's 16-18% support probably isn't going anywhere (either up or down), but I predict Biden/Buttigieg/Harris/Klobuchar supporters are all going to rallying behind one candidate who seems the most viable by South Carolina at the latest.

To me the three big questions are:

1) Will Warren supporters behave like Sanders supporters (leading to a three way split that goes to the convention) or like Biden/Buttigieg/Harris/Klobuchar supporters (rally behind whoever appears to be taking the lead).

2) Does Bloomberg's strategy of blanketing super Tuesday states with ads pay off? (I'm guessing no because every attempt to skip the early states to date has failed, and a lot of people have tried. On the other hand, none of them have tried with hundreds of millions of dollars in ads, so I could be wrong.)

3) Does Yang place well enough in Iowa or NH to convert the "I really like him, but I don't think he can win" contingent into actual supporters by Super Tuesday?

Potentially, though a major change this time from 2016 is that California moved their primary from June to Super Tuesday. That means that 40% of the delegates will be decided by Super Tuesday, and 68% by the end of March. The people at 1-2% might drop before Super Tuesday, but I would guess that 5-6 are going to stick it out to Super Tuesday (which includes both Kamala's and Klobuchar's states) and then 4 through March and 3 to the end. The last 3 would only have 30% left to fight for even one claiming 50% of the rest (rather than 20-30% with more people) would only amount to a 5% bump.

There's always someone claiming a brokered convention is could possibly happen. But if Buttigieg wins Iowa, Warren wins NH, Biden wins South Carolina, and Bernie wins Nevada, who plays chicken out of the race before half of the delegates get awarded?

maizeman

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1543 on: November 27, 2019, 11:47:16 PM »
Yes, the first four states splitting evenly between the current top four candidates is probably the worst case outcome in terms of not coalescing around a single leader before super Tuesday.

But even in that case I think the field would still have narrowed down to those four. I can see your reasoning for why Harris and Klobuchar would stay in until their home states vote, but I think the x factor you are missing or under weighting is money.

In 2008 John Edwards won 26 of the 137 delegates up for grabs in the first four states (about 19% of the total), which is higher than you are guessing Harris, Klobuchar, or Buttigieg will pull down. The race was wide open with neither Obama or Clinton having an obvious advantage at that point, and if Edwards had kept at that same level of support throughout the rest of the primary he would have been the kingmaker at a brokered 2008 democratic convention, no ifs, ands, or buts about it. The reason he dropped out before super Tuesday was that donations dried up once it became clear he wasn't going to win the whole thing. It's really not much fun to be running a presidential campaign once the money dries up. Sanders (and maybe Yang) has dedicated enough supporters I don't think they'd stop donating even after disappointing performance in the first couple of states, but I don't think the same is true for any of the more conventional democratic candidates which is why I think we will see rapid consolidation among the rest of the field after Iowa and/or New Hampshire.

Harris has been laying off staff and closing offices in NH for almost a month now. Her campaign is clearly running on empty, and she's prioritizing keeping the Iowa offices open over NH. Realistically, if she doesn't break the top three in IA, she's going to drop out rather than deal with the embarrassment of not having the staff and resources to compete in NH, NV, and SC.

Klobuchar doesn't appear to be in quite as much trouble financially, but as far as I can tell her campaign up till now has been focused entirely in IA and NH. She only hired a political director for NV in the last week and says a hire for SC is "coming soon." She raised less than $5M in Q3. (Warren and Sanders each raised more than $20M in the same time frame, Yang, Harris, Biden, and Buttigieg each raised more than $10M.) If Klobuchar doesn't win at least one early state contest she's not going to have the money to compete past SC, and realistically, if she's going to win any of the early states she'll win Iowa, so losing Iowa may be enough for her to call it quits.

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1544 on: November 28, 2019, 08:08:49 AM »
Wow good analysis Maizeman

FIPurpose

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1545 on: November 28, 2019, 08:40:17 AM »
Indeed. I agree. Good analysis. We shall see soon. Iowa is only 2 months away.

pecunia

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1546 on: November 28, 2019, 10:00:17 AM »
Some of you folks have emphasized the point that the three front runners are older than the norm.

What happens if the selected candidate drops dead prior to the election?  Will it fall to whomever had the next number of delegates?  Will another convention need to be called?

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1547 on: November 28, 2019, 10:40:27 AM »
Some of you folks have emphasized the point that the three front runners are older than the norm.

What happens if the selected candidate drops dead prior to the election?  Will it fall to whomever had the next number of delegates?  Will another convention need to be called?

There are lot of if's and when's here.

After primaries, but before party convention:
        - I would guess that the party would likely invalidate pledged delegates for the deceased/disabled/withdrawn (I'll say dead for simplicity) candidate. It would then enter second round of voting where the pledged delegates are no longer bound to the dead candidate.

After the convention, but before the election:
        - The DNC meets to decide a replacement, this is basically the caucus of all DNC members of congress and Governors.

After the election, but before the electoral college:
        - All hell breaks loose, no rules are written here. It's happened once where the loser died in this time frame. His electors' votes were invalidated by congress, so could a rogue congress deem the loser, the winner? Oh goodness who knows.

After electoral college, but before inauguration:
        - All rules of succession apply here, so a VP would be slotted to become president. If they both died during this time, I would guess that it would then come down to the House and Senate electing a POTUS and VP respectively.

FIPurpose

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1548 on: November 28, 2019, 10:51:39 AM »
Some of you folks have emphasized the point that the three front runners are older than the norm.

What happens if the selected candidate drops dead prior to the election?  Will it fall to whomever had the next number of delegates?  Will another convention need to be called?

There are lot of if's and when's here.

After primaries, but before party convention:
        - I would guess that the party would likely invalidate pledged delegates for the deceased/disabled/withdrawn (I'll say dead for simplicity) candidate. It would then enter second round of voting where the pledged delegates are no longer bound to the dead candidate.

After the convention, but before the election:
        - The DNC meets to decide a replacement, this is basically the caucus of all DNC members of congress and Governors.

After the election, but before the electoral college:
        - All hell breaks loose, no rules are written here. It's happened once where the loser died in this time frame. His electors' votes were invalidated by congress, so could a rogue congress deem the loser, the winner? Oh goodness who knows.

After electoral college, but before inauguration:
        - All rules of succession apply here, so a VP would be slotted to become president. If they both died during this time, I would guess that it would then come down to the House and Senate electing a POTUS and VP respectively.

Oh I missed one:

After electoral college, but before Congress certifies the votes:
        - The 20th Amendment that deals with presidential succession uses the term "president-elect", so does this count after the electoral college votes, or after congress certifies it? Likely that question would end up at the Supreme Court to decide.

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Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #1549 on: November 29, 2019, 12:27:58 AM »

After electoral college, but before inauguration:
        - All rules of succession apply here, so a VP would be slotted to become president. If they both died during this time, I would guess that it would then come down to the House and Senate electing a POTUS and VP respectively.
Isn't there a whole line of succession though? House majority speaker is next after VP. (Please note a lot of my knowledge of US politics comes from watching the West Wing so if that was wrong, so am I. :) ).