Author Topic: 2020 POTUS Candidates  (Read 292310 times)

Travis

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3196
  • Location: South Korea
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3000 on: April 21, 2020, 06:54:01 PM »
Alrighty my butt-hurt for Bernie is subsiding.  I can now vote for Biden.  I won't be excited about it but, damnit we have to remove that incompetent POS in our Whitehouse.

If there is a Democratic president and Congress, it will force the Republicans to ask WTF and then clean up their act.  I think they need it.

Why will it not cause them to become even more extreme and embrace a "win at all costs" style of politics that involves abandoning any pretense of the rule of law taking priority over maintaining their own power? Because that's what happened after they lost 2012.

As long as McConnell is calling the shots in the Senate, this is what you'll get. The Tea Party wins a decade ago caused them to rally against this sect of their own party rather than ask themselves what they might be doing wrong for those folks to be elected in the first place. The day after the Democrats took over the House, McConnell doubled down and declared his purpose in life was to make President Obama's difficult.

Travis

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3196
  • Location: South Korea
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3001 on: April 21, 2020, 06:57:55 PM »
Good chance that he (Biden) will run for only one term.  Trump has a lot of money behind him.  Trump has some extremely loyal supporters.  Some have called them cultists.  He will probably only run for one term because he will lose in November.

As we've seen and discussed, this "extremely loyal/cultist" support Trump enjoys is insufficient to win re-election. He squeaked by in 2016 on a razor thin electoral college win, but since that point his support has never matched what it was on election day. At the same time the number of people disapprove has risen, and the number of 'Strongly Disapprove" outnumbers those that are "extremely loyal".

Trump either needs to build his support to be much broader than what he's had over the previous 3 years, or he needs to discourage turnout for his opponent even moreso than he was able to do with HRC.  Given how hardened so many people with either supporting or opposing him, it seems like the latter is the most likely play. 

Which is why I expect this summer to get very, very ugly between those two men.

Is he losing support in states that he won last time? I don't think he cares if he becomes more unpopular in California or New York. 

nereo

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 13562
  • Location: Just south of Canada
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3002 on: April 21, 2020, 07:19:12 PM »
Good chance that he (Biden) will run for only one term.  Trump has a lot of money behind him.  Trump has some extremely loyal supporters.  Some have called them cultists.  He will probably only run for one term because he will lose in November.

As we've seen and discussed, this "extremely loyal/cultist" support Trump enjoys is insufficient to win re-election. He squeaked by in 2016 on a razor thin electoral college win, but since that point his support has never matched what it was on election day. At the same time the number of people disapprove has risen, and the number of 'Strongly Disapprove" outnumbers those that are "extremely loyal".

Trump either needs to build his support to be much broader than what he's had over the previous 3 years, or he needs to discourage turnout for his opponent even moreso than he was able to do with HRC.  Given how hardened so many people with either supporting or opposing him, it seems like the latter is the most likely play. 

Which is why I expect this summer to get very, very ugly between those two men.

Is he losing support in states that he won last time? I don't think he cares if he becomes more unpopular in California or New York.
Yes, across the board. 

FIPurpose

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1400
  • Location: WA
    • FI With Purpose
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3003 on: April 21, 2020, 07:22:50 PM »
Good chance that he (Biden) will run for only one term.  Trump has a lot of money behind him.  Trump has some extremely loyal supporters.  Some have called them cultists.  He will probably only run for one term because he will lose in November.

As we've seen and discussed, this "extremely loyal/cultist" support Trump enjoys is insufficient to win re-election. He squeaked by in 2016 on a razor thin electoral college win, but since that point his support has never matched what it was on election day. At the same time the number of people disapprove has risen, and the number of 'Strongly Disapprove" outnumbers those that are "extremely loyal".

Trump either needs to build his support to be much broader than what he's had over the previous 3 years, or he needs to discourage turnout for his opponent even moreso than he was able to do with HRC.  Given how hardened so many people with either supporting or opposing him, it seems like the latter is the most likely play. 

Which is why I expect this summer to get very, very ugly between those two men.

Is he losing support in states that he won last time? I don't think he cares if he becomes more unpopular in California or New York.

Well in general polls in 2016 Clinton ended the campaign at a +3, and the actual election was around +2.
So far Biden is polling around +5. That's including the popularity spike Trump is enjoying from Covid. Before Biden was at +10. If Biden can maintain a +5 in general polls, it is nearly impossible for Trump to overcome even in an electoral sense.

RCP polling currently also has Biden winning in FL (+0.2), WI (+2.7), AZ(+4.4), MI (+4), PA(+3.8), MN (+12), and down in NC (-1.3).

Abe

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1658
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3004 on: April 21, 2020, 09:29:14 PM »
After our last fiasco (I mean election), I'd have to see at least a +5% lead to believe Biden is going to win a state. Maybe even a +10%. Otherwise will assume the same people who showed up last time will show up this time, and it seems everyone who thought Trump was great the first time around still think he is.

The places Trump flipped in 2016:
Iowa: 10% margin
Wisconsin: 0.7%
Michigan: 0.3%
Ohio: 8.1%
Penn: 0.7%
Florida: 1.2%

Michigan he seems to be doing better in +3 to +9, Iowa he isn't (-3 to -10%). The rest is margin of error. And honestly, Biden doesn't inspire the confidence in his potential supporters that Trump does amongst his.

Playing around with the map, only way Biden wins is if he gets Florida and one other close state, or all three of the other close states (MI,WI,PA). If he loses any close state that Clinton won last time (MN, NV, VA), he can't win without flipping both FL and PA.
« Last Edit: April 21, 2020, 09:45:25 PM by Abe »

FIPurpose

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1400
  • Location: WA
    • FI With Purpose
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3005 on: April 21, 2020, 10:08:34 PM »
In 2016 you also had about 5% voting for a 3rd party candidate which is about double what it usually is. Who will these people break for? Most of them were anti-Trump, anti-Hillary votes. Will 1-2% of them also come back and just be anti-Trump votes? I don't want to imply that Trump will inevitably lose, but honestly, Hillary's unlikability is far beyond Biden's. There is no strong anti-Biden campaign. Hannity and Limbaugh can't make things stick as much as they might like. There's no decade long campaign to ruin Biden with stupid things like Pizza-gate or Benghazi.

Biden polling positive in Florida, even if he doesn't win that state, I think shows that he's 1-2% ahead of where Hillary was at.

nereo

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 13562
  • Location: Just south of Canada
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3006 on: April 22, 2020, 05:44:53 AM »

Michigan he seems to be doing better in +3 to +9, Iowa he isn't (-3 to -10%). The rest is margin of error. And honestly, Biden doesn't inspire the confidence in his potential supporters that Trump does amongst his.


I view this much differently.  In 2016 there were enough people who disliked HRC that they were willing to give Trump a chance, or simply not show up to vote (like the very low turnout among African-Americans). Biden has spend literally decades making himself known to this very crucial (to the Dems) voter block.  I actually see some enthusiastic support for him in a lot of the east-coast inner city areas.

What’s changed is that the passionate and widespread DISlike of Trump exceeds what was felt for HRC 3.5 years ago. Yes, Trump has passionate supporters (many of whom still want to just poke the establishment in the eye), but he has no more of these supporters than 4 years ago, and he has way more people who are so thoroughly disgusted by him and his administration that they are very likely to show up to vote.

Harbingers of this have played out over the last wave of elections. The 2018 midterms produced the predicted ‘blue tsunami’ with record turnout.  Special elections. In deeply red states like Georgia, TX and WV have been way, way closer than they should.  More recently WI elected a liberal judge alongside record turnout in the middle of a pandemic.

The passion may not always be for Biden, but it’s been steadfastly against Trump.  In 2016 he won with approximately the same number of republican votes that Romney and McCain got (that is, those who self-identify with the GOP vote for the candidate regardless, such is how strong party identity is among Republicans).  Whereas HRC had substantially low turnout. 


Kris

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5668
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3007 on: April 22, 2020, 06:19:59 AM »
After our last fiasco (I mean election), I'd have to see at least a +5% lead to believe Biden is going to win a state. Maybe even a +10%. Otherwise will assume the same people who showed up last time will show up this time, and it seems everyone who thought Trump was great the first time around still think he is.

The places Trump flipped in 2016:
Iowa: 10% margin
Wisconsin: 0.7%
Michigan: 0.3%
Ohio: 8.1%
Penn: 0.7%
Florida: 1.2%

Michigan he seems to be doing better in +3 to +9, Iowa he isn't (-3 to -10%). The rest is margin of error. And honestly, Biden doesn't inspire the confidence in his potential supporters that Trump does amongst his.

Playing around with the map, only way Biden wins is if he gets Florida and one other close state, or all three of the other close states (MI,WI,PA). If he loses any close state that Clinton won last time (MN, NV, VA), he can't win without flipping both FL and PA.

So, given this, who is the best VP pick?

I’m thinking Klobuchar?

maizefolk

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4861
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3008 on: April 22, 2020, 09:11:37 AM »
So based on the data Abe posted above, Biden just has to win three states that Clinton lost by 0.7% or less.

That means he only needs 0.4% of people who voted in 2016 to switch which party they support (which would cause an 0.8% swing in the margin of victory). And/or motivate about 0.85% of the people who didn't vote at all in 2016 to show up and vote for him.

As someone who had to force myself to pull the lever for Clinton in 2016 rather than stay home or vote 3rd party and who feels pretty neutral about Biden,* that's actually quite encouraging, thanks Abe!

*I'm not thrilled to vote for him, but I also won't feel bad about doing so like I did when I got home from my polling place in 2016

nereo

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 13562
  • Location: Just south of Canada
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3009 on: April 22, 2020, 09:26:57 AM »
So based on the data Abe posted above, Biden just has to win three states that Clinton lost by 0.7% or less.

That means he only needs 0.4% of people who voted in 2016 to switch which party they support (which would cause an 0.8% swing in the margin of victory). And/or motivate about 0.85% of the people who didn't vote at all in 2016 to show up and vote for him.

As someone who had to force myself to pull the lever for Clinton in 2016 rather than stay home or vote 3rd party and who feels pretty neutral about Biden,* that's actually quite encouraging, thanks Abe!

*I'm not thrilled to vote for him, but I also won't feel bad about doing so like I did when I got home from my polling place in 2016

the Third Party vote is another aspect that's often ignored when considering Trump's re-electability.  Stein & Johnson combined for almost 6MM votes (roughly 4.6% of the total cast). 
More importantly they collectively got 4.7% in MI (Trump won by 0.3%), 4.7% in WI (Trump won by 1.0%), 3.6% in PA (Trump by 1.2%), and 3% in FL (Trump by 1.2%).

It's too soon to know what role 3rd party candidates will have on this election, but if it is less that can substantially alter the race in states that Trump absolutely needs to win.  It's certainly far from certain that a Stein/Johnson voter in 2016 would vote for Biden this time around, BUT... it's also hard to see why someone who could not vote for Trump last time and instead opted for a 3rd party "symbolic vote" would suddenly be ok with Trump - particularly given a decline in economic conditions (everyone), a gutting of environmental standards (Stein voters) and a huge power-grab by the WH with massive federal spending (Johnson voters).

secondcor521

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3137
  • Age: 51
  • Location: Boise, Idaho
  • Big cattle, no hat.
    • Age of Eon - Overwatch player videos
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3010 on: April 22, 2020, 12:19:29 PM »
I wonder when it's too late for someone to mount a third-party run.  Mark Cuban has lately toyed with the idea.  Not saying he (or any third-party candidate) would win, but I do subscribe to the notion that third-party candidates can siphon votes from major party candidates (as mentioned above).

I think the risk is low but higher to the Democratic party that someone would try a third-party run and siphon off Biden votes.

jim555

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2442
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3011 on: April 22, 2020, 12:43:35 PM »
I wonder when it's too late for someone to mount a third-party run.  Mark Cuban has lately toyed with the idea.  Not saying he (or any third-party candidate) would win, but I do subscribe to the notion that third-party candidates can siphon votes from major party candidates (as mentioned above).

I think the risk is low but higher to the Democratic party that someone would try a third-party run and siphon off Biden votes.
Getting petition signatures in the COVID-19 world means most third parties probably will not get on the ballot in most areas this year.

nereo

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 13562
  • Location: Just south of Canada
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3012 on: April 22, 2020, 12:44:41 PM »
I wonder when it's too late for someone to mount a third-party run.  Mark Cuban has lately toyed with the idea.  Not saying he (or any third-party candidate) would win, but I do subscribe to the notion that third-party candidates can siphon votes from major party candidates (as mentioned above).


it varies state-by-state.  Several parties are already on the ballot in a bunch of states (e.g. the libertarian, green, socialism party).  So they will be represented in the 2020 election... it's just wheather they have a presence large enough to collectively attract >2% of the votes in any given swing state.

I think the risk is low but higher to the Democratic party that someone would try a third-party run and siphon off Biden votes.

I'm undecided about who it might help (or hurt) more.  Certainly it depends on which third party/individual you are talking about.  On one hand some who will never vote for Trump are looking for an alternative to Biden (Sanders supporters come to mind).  OTOH there's a deep pool of traditionally conservative republicans (think followers of George Will, Peter Wehner, Max Boot, Stephen Hayes etc.) who are not and will never be enthusiastic about a left-center Democrat and their policies, but abhor Trump and all he's done to the GOP.  For those, Biden might have always been too far to support, but a third-party candidate allows them to exercise their right to vote without feeling like they are supporting the demagogue in the WH.

Getting petition signatures in the COVID-19 world means most third parties probably will not get on the ballot in most areas this year.
In many states the party already IS on the ballot (see above).  They just need to official declare their candidate (as do the GOP and Dems)

jim555

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2442
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3013 on: April 22, 2020, 12:53:08 PM »
Short of a Ross Perot billionaire type appearing, and none is on the horizon, a Third Party is a total waste of time and effort.  The established minor parties only put up joke candidates that will never win.

nereo

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 13562
  • Location: Just south of Canada
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3014 on: April 22, 2020, 12:59:06 PM »
Short of a Ross Perot billionaire type appearing, and none is on the horizon, a Third Party is a total waste of time and effort.  The established minor parties only put up joke candidates that will never win.

The discussion isn't whether a third-party candidate can win.  There's near universal agreement here that one could not right now.  It's whether a third party candidate can swing the election to either Trump or Biden.  Given that the margin of victory in 2016 was < 0.5% for two states, and <1.5% for something like 6 states - it's certainly possible, should that candidate manage to secure even 3-4% of the total votes cast (as Johnson did in many of these states 2016).

jim555

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2442
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3015 on: April 22, 2020, 01:12:20 PM »
I think is is basically a wash with no net impact when all is said and done.

maizefolk

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4861
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3016 on: April 22, 2020, 01:12:29 PM »
In 2016 both parties were on the ballot in all the critical swing states and the libertarian party managed to make the ballot in all 50.

Right of potentially decisive swing states, the Libertarian party is on the ballot in Michigan and Ohio, not on the ballot in Minnesota, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania.

Green party is on the ballot in Michigan, but not MN, WI, OH, or PA.

If Biden decides to pursue the "southern strategy" of going after Georgia and Arizona instead of, or in parallel with, trying to win back the midwestern states that voted for Obama but not Clinton, both GA and AZ have the Libertarian party on the ballot already but not the Greens.

DavidAnnArbor

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2273
  • Age: 54
  • Location: Ann Arbor, Michigan
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3017 on: April 23, 2020, 09:31:44 AM »
After our last fiasco (I mean election), I'd have to see at least a +5% lead to believe Biden is going to win a state. Maybe even a +10%. Otherwise will assume the same people who showed up last time will show up this time, and it seems everyone who thought Trump was great the first time around still think he is.

The places Trump flipped in 2016:
Iowa: 10% margin
Wisconsin: 0.7%
Michigan: 0.3%
Ohio: 8.1%
Penn: 0.7%
Florida: 1.2%

Michigan he seems to be doing better in +3 to +9, Iowa he isn't (-3 to -10%). The rest is margin of error. And honestly, Biden doesn't inspire the confidence in his potential supporters that Trump does amongst his.

Playing around with the map, only way Biden wins is if he gets Florida and one other close state, or all three of the other close states (MI,WI,PA). If he loses any close state that Clinton won last time (MN, NV, VA), he can't win without flipping both FL and PA.

So, given this, who is the best VP pick?

I’m thinking Klobuchar?

I still think Stacey Abrams is the best pick because she could help increase African American turnout in Milwaukee, Detroit, and Philadelphia as well as help bring Georgia on board as competitive. Abrams would have won the Georgia governor's race but for Kemp's disqualifying hundreds of thousands of valid voters. Also Abrams is a more magnetic speaker who can inspire voters.

Kris

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5668
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3018 on: April 23, 2020, 09:36:30 AM »
After our last fiasco (I mean election), I'd have to see at least a +5% lead to believe Biden is going to win a state. Maybe even a +10%. Otherwise will assume the same people who showed up last time will show up this time, and it seems everyone who thought Trump was great the first time around still think he is.

The places Trump flipped in 2016:
Iowa: 10% margin
Wisconsin: 0.7%
Michigan: 0.3%
Ohio: 8.1%
Penn: 0.7%
Florida: 1.2%

Michigan he seems to be doing better in +3 to +9, Iowa he isn't (-3 to -10%). The rest is margin of error. And honestly, Biden doesn't inspire the confidence in his potential supporters that Trump does amongst his.

Playing around with the map, only way Biden wins is if he gets Florida and one other close state, or all three of the other close states (MI,WI,PA). If he loses any close state that Clinton won last time (MN, NV, VA), he can't win without flipping both FL and PA.

So, given this, who is the best VP pick?

I’m thinking Klobuchar?

I still think Stacey Abrams is the best pick because she could help increase African American turnout in Milwaukee, Detroit, and Philadelphia as well as help bring Georgia on board as competitive. Abrams would have won the Georgia governor's race but for Kemp's disqualifying hundreds of thousands of valid voters. Also Abrams is a more magnetic speaker who can inspire voters.

Could be. Though Biden does well with African Americans already.

Amy is a boring speaker, though. I will give you that. But she does really well with moderate Republicans in the Midwest.

One thing I really want out of a VP pick (not that they're asking me) is someone with a shedload of experience. Joe is too old to pick a relative newb as his vice-president.

DavidAnnArbor

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2273
  • Age: 54
  • Location: Ann Arbor, Michigan
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3019 on: April 23, 2020, 09:42:34 AM »
At times Amy can speak really well and be inspiring like she did at times during the debates.

At least in Wisconsin there's a Democratic governor so if she does become the choice then the governor would appoint a Democratic replacement.

Samuel

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 517
  • Location: the slippery slope
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3020 on: April 23, 2020, 09:47:32 AM »
One thing I really want out of a VP pick (not that they're asking me) is someone with a shedload of experience. Joe is too old to pick a relative newb as his vice-president.

This. Biden's VP pick will have a higher likelihood of assuming the presidency than the typical running mate. Has to be someone capable of actually doing the big job with little ramp up.

maizefolk

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4861
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3021 on: April 23, 2020, 09:56:10 AM »
I'm still holding out for Duckworth.

Eight years of experience in congress and a lieutenant colonel. Under 60 (important for Biden). From the midwest.  No obvious conflicts of policy positions with Biden. Decorated Iraq war veteran. Allows Biden to fulfill his (ill considered) promise to rule out all male candidates for for the VP slot, which now that he has made it would be a disaster to walk back. She's a person-of-color for people also advocating for that criteria as part of the selection process.

Would rank Gretchen Whitmer in the #2 spot, and Harris as #3.

I'd originally though Abrams would be a likely pick for whoever got the Dem. nomination but with Biden in particular I think it is important his VP pick be someone who clearly has the background to take over as president at any time. Both important for getting elected and important for the safety/security of the country. I'm not sure Abram's service only at the level of a member of the state legislature hits that bar. To be fair I'll note here that Gretchen Whitmer only about a year of experience at levels above state legislature, which is also a significant mark against her being the final choice, although a year that includes dealing with one of the worst coronavirus outbreaks outside of NY should count for a fair bit.

Based on social media I've been surprised how negatively several of the much more liberal people I knew from college reacted to the Abrams quote on the view about it being a slap in the face if Biden didn't pick not only a woman but a black woman/woman of color. Don't know if their reaction is indicative, or just a random outlier.

Kris

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5668
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3022 on: April 23, 2020, 09:57:28 AM »
At times Amy can speak really well and be inspiring like she did at times during the debates.

At least in Wisconsin there's a Democratic governor so if she does become the choice then the governor would appoint a Democratic replacement.

She's from Minnesota. Though the point still stands.

Kris

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5668
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3023 on: April 23, 2020, 09:58:43 AM »
One thing I really want out of a VP pick (not that they're asking me) is someone with a shedload of experience. Joe is too old to pick a relative newb as his vice-president.

This. Biden's VP pick will have a higher likelihood of assuming the presidency than the typical running mate. Has to be someone capable of actually doing the big job with little ramp up.

Exactly. Especially because, after the shit show of incompetence+corruption that has been the Trump administration, the next presidential administration is going to have a lot of work to do to restore any semblance of order and function.

big_owl

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 895
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3024 on: April 23, 2020, 10:34:05 AM »
I'm calling it.  I think Trump jumped the shark with the whole "Liberate XYZ!" and then going full-opposite with Georgia.  People are getting pissed, he better hope for a moonshot market rally between now and November with epic jobs numbers.  Stay alive Biden, just stay alive.  And don't completely muck it up in the debates.  My fear is Biden will try to show his male toughness and go lowbrow with Trump on the stage and it will be cringeworthy. 

bacchi

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5017
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3025 on: April 23, 2020, 12:57:54 PM »
I'm calling it.  I think Trump jumped the shark with the whole "Liberate XYZ!" and then going full-opposite with Georgia.  People are getting pissed, he better hope for a moonshot market rally between now and November with epic jobs numbers.  Stay alive Biden, just stay alive.  And don't completely muck it up in the debates.  My fear is Biden will try to show his male toughness and go lowbrow with Trump on the stage and it will be cringeworthy.

Will that hurt him?

If Biden challenges Trump to a push-up contest, it won't affect my vote.

Psychstache

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1039
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3026 on: April 23, 2020, 01:29:22 PM »
I'm calling it.  I think Trump jumped the shark with the whole "Liberate XYZ!" and then going full-opposite with Georgia.  People are getting pissed, he better hope for a moonshot market rally between now and November with epic jobs numbers.  Stay alive Biden, just stay alive.  And don't completely muck it up in the debates.  My fear is Biden will try to show his male toughness and go lowbrow with Trump on the stage and it will be cringeworthy.

Will that hurt him?

If Biden challenges Trump to a push-up contest, it won't affect my vote.

IMO, the easiest way for Biden to lose is to turn off people likely to vote for him into just skipping going to vote. Everyone who wants to vote for Trump is going to show up and vote for trump, there is no hope or point in going after those voters. The one for sure true thing that Trump ever said is that he could shoot someone on 5th ave and not lose a single vote. There is a certain segment of D voters who would become apathetic and say 'screw it, i'm staying home' on election day if Biden were to try and adopt some of the Trump style tactics of campaigning.

nereo

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 13562
  • Location: Just south of Canada
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3027 on: April 23, 2020, 01:35:18 PM »
I have a slightly different take.

IMO the most likely way that Biden will lose is for him and the public to spend all their time debating some outrageous, bats&*t crazy, unsubstantiated  accusations about him.  Kerry and Swift Boat Vets for Truth.  Clinton and 'Pizzagate"  (or her cognative ability.  Or her 'choosing Bill's Victims'.  Or Benghazi. ).  Obama's birth-certificate and being a closeted Muslim.

Something (likely several somethings) outlandish will be pushed out there, and Trump will half-support it "A lot of people are talking about it," and it will be repeated so often that the 2/3rds of Americans who don't pay close attention to politics will start assuming there must be some truth in it (the "middle Ground" fallacy).

bacchi

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5017
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3028 on: April 23, 2020, 01:46:54 PM »
I have a slightly different take.

IMO the most likely way that Biden will lose is for him and the public to spend all their time debating some outrageous, bats&*t crazy, unsubstantiated  accusations about him.  Kerry and Swift Boat Vets for Truth.  Clinton and 'Pizzagate"  (or her cognative ability.  Or her 'choosing Bill's Victims'.  Or Benghazi. ).  Obama's birth-certificate and being a closeted Muslim.

Something (likely several somethings) outlandish will be pushed out there, and Trump will half-support it "A lot of people are talking about it," and it will be repeated so often that the 2/3rds of Americans who don't pay close attention to politics will start assuming there must be some truth in it (the "middle Ground" fallacy).

And wouldn't it be better if Biden took that on, forcefully? "You're talking BS, President Trump. Why are you such a liar?" And then maybe a pivot to a batshit crazy theory about Trump that "people are talking about."

Being all wonky is great but it doesn't appeal to a large number of voters.

big_owl

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 895
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3029 on: April 23, 2020, 01:59:32 PM »
I'm calling it.  I think Trump jumped the shark with the whole "Liberate XYZ!" and then going full-opposite with Georgia.  People are getting pissed, he better hope for a moonshot market rally between now and November with epic jobs numbers.  Stay alive Biden, just stay alive.  And don't completely muck it up in the debates.  My fear is Biden will try to show his male toughness and go lowbrow with Trump on the stage and it will be cringeworthy.

Will that hurt him?

If Biden challenges Trump to a push-up contest, it won't affect my vote.

One problem I can foresee, and it's because I find myself thinking the same way even with my disdain for Trump, is people might end up sympathizing with him.

I mean, I can't blame him for covid, it's not like he caused it and sure as well not like it was something he wanted to be dealing with.  And frankly, if I ignore all his bullshit rhetoric and buffoonery the US response hasn't been all that terrible.  So I'm afraid people will cut him slack and he might pick up some sympathy vote.  He really could have gotten in on that had he have been more somber and presidential in his press briefings but he didn't get the message I guess.  Still, it might only take a few voters to swing it.

bacchi

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5017
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3030 on: April 23, 2020, 02:04:42 PM »
I'm calling it.  I think Trump jumped the shark with the whole "Liberate XYZ!" and then going full-opposite with Georgia.  People are getting pissed, he better hope for a moonshot market rally between now and November with epic jobs numbers.  Stay alive Biden, just stay alive.  And don't completely muck it up in the debates.  My fear is Biden will try to show his male toughness and go lowbrow with Trump on the stage and it will be cringeworthy.

Will that hurt him?

If Biden challenges Trump to a push-up contest, it won't affect my vote.

One problem I can foresee, and it's because I find myself thinking the same way even with my disdain for Trump, is people might end up sympathizing with him.

I mean, I can't blame him for covid, it's not like he caused it and sure as well not like it was something he wanted to be dealing with.  And frankly, if I ignore all his bullshit rhetoric and buffoonery the US response hasn't been all that terrible.  So I'm afraid people will cut him slack and he might pick up some sympathy vote.  He really could have gotten in on that had he have been more somber and presidential in his press briefings but he didn't get the message I guess.  Still, it might only take a few voters to swing it.

Ok, I can see that. Biden can present what a President should be, and what once was, and maybe it'll pull in some NeverTrumpers and reluctant Trump voters.

This is why Biden was the best choice, perhaps. He's very establishment, and white, and older, which could change the vote for some "Well, he's not that bad" voters.


American GenX

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 482
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3031 on: April 23, 2020, 03:30:39 PM »
Ok, I can see that. Biden can present what a President should be, and what once was, and maybe it'll pull in some NeverTrumpers and reluctant Trump voters.

This is why Biden was the best choice, perhaps. He's very establishment, and white, and older, which could change the vote for some "Well, he's not that bad" voters.

I'm definitely looking forward to voting for him - not sure I would have felt the same about any of the other candidates, so I'm glad it's Biden.

Hopefully he picks a VP that helps his ticket, like Klobuchar, Whitmer, or Harris.

Fireball

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 289
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3032 on: April 23, 2020, 03:59:31 PM »
I'm calling it.  I think Trump jumped the shark with the whole "Liberate XYZ!" and then going full-opposite with Georgia.  People are getting pissed, he better hope for a moonshot market rally between now and November with epic jobs numbers.  Stay alive Biden, just stay alive.  And don't completely muck it up in the debates.  My fear is Biden will try to show his male toughness and go lowbrow with Trump on the stage and it will be cringeworthy.

Will that hurt him?

If Biden challenges Trump to a push-up contest, it won't affect my vote.

One problem I can foresee, and it's because I find myself thinking the same way even with my disdain for Trump, is people might end up sympathizing with him.

I mean, I can't blame him for covid, it's not like he caused it and sure as well not like it was something he wanted to be dealing with.  And frankly, if I ignore all his bullshit rhetoric and buffoonery the US response hasn't been all that terrible.  So I'm afraid people will cut him slack and he might pick up some sympathy vote.  He really could have gotten in on that had he have been more somber and presidential in his press briefings but he didn't get the message I guess.  Still, it might only take a few voters to swing it.

If you subscribe to the notion of American exceptionalism, which the GOP fervently does, then our Covid response was piss poor. I think there's little chance Trump gets a sympathy vote on this or any other topic, mostly because he's so unsympathetic towards others. Although, I can certainly see his supporters believing no one else could have done any better.

nereo

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 13562
  • Location: Just south of Canada
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3033 on: April 23, 2020, 05:32:00 PM »
I'm calling it.  I think Trump jumped the shark with the whole "Liberate XYZ!" and then going full-opposite with Georgia.  People are getting pissed, he better hope for a moonshot market rally between now and November with epic jobs numbers.  Stay alive Biden, just stay alive.  And don't completely muck it up in the debates.  My fear is Biden will try to show his male toughness and go lowbrow with Trump on the stage and it will be cringeworthy.

Will that hurt him?

If Biden challenges Trump to a push-up contest, it won't affect my vote.

One problem I can foresee, and it's because I find myself thinking the same way even with my disdain for Trump, is people might end up sympathizing with him.

I mean, I can't blame him for covid, it's not like he caused it and sure as well not like it was something he wanted to be dealing with.  And frankly, if I ignore all his bullshit rhetoric and buffoonery the US response hasn't been all that terrible.  So I'm afraid people will cut him slack and he might pick up some sympathy vote.  He really could have gotten in on that had he have been more somber and presidential in his press briefings but he didn't get the message I guess.  Still, it might only take a few voters to swing it.

If you subscribe to the notion of American exceptionalism, which the GOP fervently does, then our Covid response was piss poor. I think there's little chance Trump gets a sympathy vote on this or any other topic, mostly because he's so unsympathetic towards others. Although, I can certainly see his supporters believing no one else could have done any better.

We are the world leader (!) in Covid deaths.  Given our current actions and the places that are opening up despite all the warnings, I foresee it getting worse before it gets better.

I know Trump likes to take every failure and claim it was a victory, but Im doubtful all but his more hardcore supporters will be able to look at this and think "gee, we did great!"

big_owl

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 895
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3034 on: April 23, 2020, 06:27:58 PM »
I'm calling it.  I think Trump jumped the shark with the whole "Liberate XYZ!" and then going full-opposite with Georgia.  People are getting pissed, he better hope for a moonshot market rally between now and November with epic jobs numbers.  Stay alive Biden, just stay alive.  And don't completely muck it up in the debates.  My fear is Biden will try to show his male toughness and go lowbrow with Trump on the stage and it will be cringeworthy.

Will that hurt him?

If Biden challenges Trump to a push-up contest, it won't affect my vote.

One problem I can foresee, and it's because I find myself thinking the same way even with my disdain for Trump, is people might end up sympathizing with him.

I mean, I can't blame him for covid, it's not like he caused it and sure as well not like it was something he wanted to be dealing with.  And frankly, if I ignore all his bullshit rhetoric and buffoonery the US response hasn't been all that terrible.  So I'm afraid people will cut him slack and he might pick up some sympathy vote.  He really could have gotten in on that had he have been more somber and presidential in his press briefings but he didn't get the message I guess.  Still, it might only take a few voters to swing it.

If you subscribe to the notion of American exceptionalism, which the GOP fervently does, then our Covid response was piss poor. I think there's little chance Trump gets a sympathy vote on this or any other topic, mostly because he's so unsympathetic towards others. Although, I can certainly see his supporters believing no one else could have done any better.

We are the world leader (!) in Covid deaths.  Given our current actions and the places that are opening up despite all the warnings, I foresee it getting worse before it gets better.

I know Trump likes to take every failure and claim it was a victory, but Im doubtful all but his more hardcore supporters will be able to look at this and think "gee, we did great!"

World leader how?   Absolute numbers?   Try population weighting those and then relax. How's Spain and France (and Italy) doing compared to the US?   
« Last Edit: April 23, 2020, 06:30:47 PM by big_owl »

secondcor521

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3137
  • Age: 51
  • Location: Boise, Idaho
  • Big cattle, no hat.
    • Age of Eon - Overwatch player videos
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3035 on: April 23, 2020, 07:53:55 PM »
Although, I can certainly see his supporters believing no one else could have done any better.

The question that voters will probably be prompted to think about is not whether anyone else could have done better, but whether Biden (and maybe to some extent the yet-unnamed-VP) could have done better.

Right now I think the Biden strategy of criticizing Trump's actions is probably the best one for him to take, even over the next couple of weeks.  But I think he'd do even better if he were to articulate what he and the Democrats-if/when-elected would/will do differently.  Maybe he's done both but I've seen more of the former than the latter so far.

bacchi

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5017
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3036 on: April 23, 2020, 08:03:00 PM »
I'm calling it.  I think Trump jumped the shark with the whole "Liberate XYZ!" and then going full-opposite with Georgia.  People are getting pissed, he better hope for a moonshot market rally between now and November with epic jobs numbers.  Stay alive Biden, just stay alive.  And don't completely muck it up in the debates.  My fear is Biden will try to show his male toughness and go lowbrow with Trump on the stage and it will be cringeworthy.

Will that hurt him?

If Biden challenges Trump to a push-up contest, it won't affect my vote.

One problem I can foresee, and it's because I find myself thinking the same way even with my disdain for Trump, is people might end up sympathizing with him.

I mean, I can't blame him for covid, it's not like he caused it and sure as well not like it was something he wanted to be dealing with.  And frankly, if I ignore all his bullshit rhetoric and buffoonery the US response hasn't been all that terrible.  So I'm afraid people will cut him slack and he might pick up some sympathy vote.  He really could have gotten in on that had he have been more somber and presidential in his press briefings but he didn't get the message I guess.  Still, it might only take a few voters to swing it.

If you subscribe to the notion of American exceptionalism, which the GOP fervently does, then our Covid response was piss poor. I think there's little chance Trump gets a sympathy vote on this or any other topic, mostly because he's so unsympathetic towards others. Although, I can certainly see his supporters believing no one else could have done any better.

We are the world leader (!) in Covid deaths.  Given our current actions and the places that are opening up despite all the warnings, I foresee it getting worse before it gets better.

I know Trump likes to take every failure and claim it was a victory, but Im doubtful all but his more hardcore supporters will be able to look at this and think "gee, we did great!"

World leader how?   Absolute numbers?   Try population weighting those and then relax. How's Spain and France (and Italy) doing compared to the US?

Oh, yeah, those countries are currently doing far worse.

The US death slope is decidedly steeper, though. Given enough time, and with some social distance loosening, we might surpass them. Yay?

nereo

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 13562
  • Location: Just south of Canada
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3037 on: April 24, 2020, 06:05:44 AM »
At ease, @big_owl - I was poking fun at our tendency to call ourselves the ‘world leader’ in almost every imaginable category, when it’s often not the case or only when you ignore important factors like population or income levels.  So my comment was meant to turn the tables and say how we are “#1” in something we definitely don’t want to be the best at. 

As is the US has the most deaths overall (though not by population), with the caveat that China’s numbers in particular should be met with suspicion given their utter lack of transparency and history of actively hiding negative data.

talltexan

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3914
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3038 on: April 24, 2020, 06:22:24 AM »
In 2016 both parties were on the ballot in all the critical swing states and the libertarian party managed to make the ballot in all 50.

Right of potentially decisive swing states, the Libertarian party is on the ballot in Michigan and Ohio, not on the ballot in Minnesota, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania.

Green party is on the ballot in Michigan, but not MN, WI, OH, or PA.

If Biden decides to pursue the "southern strategy" of going after Georgia and Arizona instead of, or in parallel with, trying to win back the midwestern states that voted for Obama but not Clinton, both GA and AZ have the Libertarian party on the ballot already but not the Greens.

The Vice President from that 2016 Libertarian ticket actually ran a primary campaign against Trump this winter. Gov. Bill Weld had a hard time pulling votes away from Trump, though (disclosure: I voted for Gov. Weld in the NC Republican primary)

It will be interesting to see if he returns to the libertarians. My personal belief is that Trump thrives from chaos and craziness. If you're making a serious third-party campaign, you're making things easier for him.

nereo

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 13562
  • Location: Just south of Canada
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3039 on: April 24, 2020, 06:33:38 AM »
Interesting analysis from the latest round of polls - Biden seems to be targeting older (senior) voters in the key swing states, and seems to be making headway.  Among older voters, Biden is currently leading by 10 points in Florida (a state DJT carried with senior citizens by 17 points against HRC).  Among the same demographic he's also up 7 points in Pennsylvania and a whopping 18 points in Michigan.

For the country at large Biden has seen his support among baby boomers rise steadily during the Covid crisis.  As his campaign has largely been forced into dormancy I wonder how much of this is Biden winning over voters and how much is due to Trump's abysmal handling of the pandemic, particularly among that demographic.

big_owl

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 895
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3040 on: April 24, 2020, 07:38:22 AM »
At ease, @big_owl - I was poking fun at our tendency to call ourselves the ‘world leader’ in almost every imaginable category, when it’s often not the case or only when you ignore important factors like population or income levels.  So my comment was meant to turn the tables and say how we are “#1” in something we definitely don’t want to be the best at. 

As is the US has the most deaths overall (though not by population), with the caveat that China’s numbers in particular should be met with suspicion given their utter lack of transparency and history of actively hiding negative data.

Well one thing we do know is that Trump should stay away from all matters science when talking about covid (or anything probably).  UV lights in the body?  Injections of disinfectant?  You wonder how somebody can get so far being so stupid.  Drudge has a nice front page right now.  Drink your juice bleach kids!

GuitarStv

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 16649
  • Age: 39
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3041 on: April 24, 2020, 07:42:29 AM »
You wonder how somebody can get so far being so stupid.

Don't wonder.  Being born with a silver spoon in your mouth really gives you a leg up.  It means you don't have to work as hard, don't have to be as smart, and can be president.

nereo

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 13562
  • Location: Just south of Canada
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3042 on: April 24, 2020, 07:44:43 AM »
You wonder how somebody can get so far being so stupid.

Don't wonder.  Being born with a silver spoon in your mouth really gives you a leg up.  It means you don't have to work as hard, don't have to be as smart, and can be president.

Shhhh.... that refutes the notion that the United States is the land of opportunity, and your success is largely a factor of your work ethic.

Travis

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3196
  • Location: South Korea
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3043 on: April 24, 2020, 08:18:19 AM »
You wonder how somebody can get so far being so stupid.

Don't wonder.  Being born with a silver spoon in your mouth really gives you a leg up.  It means you don't have to work as hard, don't have to be as smart, and can be president.

Shhhh.... that refutes the notion that the United States is the land of opportunity, and your success is largely a factor of your work ethic.

The quality of the different roasters varies drastically, but many of these jokes aged - interestingly.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lNoqIZpDSIs


PathtoFIRE

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 752
  • Age: 41
  • Location: Dallas
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3044 on: April 24, 2020, 10:13:42 AM »
Anyone else think that it'll be a mistake if Biden agrees to debate Trump?

It's interesting, because I have a strong belief in transparency and open debate. I hold the simultaneous beliefs that Trump says some truly reprehensible and damaging things and that it does no good to try to outright silence someone like that. I just think that 1) nothing good for Biden can come from the debates, and 2) a debate stage with Biden gives Trump an air of legitimacy that he doesn't deserve.

Kris

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5668
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3045 on: April 24, 2020, 10:23:41 AM »
Anyone else think that it'll be a mistake if Biden agrees to debate Trump?

It's interesting, because I have a strong belief in transparency and open debate. I hold the simultaneous beliefs that Trump says some truly reprehensible and damaging things and that it does no good to try to outright silence someone like that. I just think that 1) nothing good for Biden can come from the debates, and 2) a debate stage with Biden gives Trump an air of legitimacy that he doesn't deserve.

Well, we already know Trump is a grossly incompetent, corrupt narcissist. So truthfully, for him the bar cannot possibly go any lower in a debate.

So, in that way, he has a certain advantage?

nereo

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 13562
  • Location: Just south of Canada
    • Here's how you can support science today:
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3046 on: April 24, 2020, 10:47:03 AM »
I feel like 4 years ago HRC and the Dems in general were completely unprepared for the unorthodox* way that Trump would debate. Remember him stalking HRC around the stage?  Boasting about not paying taxes ("Because I'm Smart!!"), and otherwise denying having said things he very clearly had said just days beforehand on camera?

I hope this time they aren't caught so unprepared.  Once you get past how outrageous his antics are, he's actually pretty predictable.  Whatever the prevailing critique is on him he'll claim the opposite and accuse his opponent of worse ("I'm a stable genius and Hillary ... a lot of people say she's having a mental breakdown"). So maybe Biden won't be caught as flatfooted as HRC was. Trump also stays "on message" above all else. 

Given how predictable it is that Trump will lie,and how he keeps repeating (and escalating) the same ones, I'd blanket the airwaves and social media with whatever fallacy he was likely to repeat just hours before the debate.  Then coach Biden to push Trump into denying he said whatever outrageous lie he's propagating, and then wrap up his denial alongside clips and articles exposing the lie.

Also - come to think of it, it wasn't just HRC and the DNC that were caught flat-footed.  The media for their part didn't know what to do with such falsehoods, and spent way too much time twisting itself in knots trying not to point out a blatant lie, instead falling back on normal journalism jargon like: "without providing evidence" and "contrary to what some believe".
Hopefully this time around journalists will have learned and will write more directly.  Call a spade a spade, and call an intentional lie or alteration of data what it is, a lie.

talltexan

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3914
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3047 on: April 24, 2020, 12:36:22 PM »
Biden performed very well in the VP debate with Paul Ryan eight years ago. Debating Trump is not like debating Ryan.

I actually thought Sec. Clinton performed as well as she could have during the debates with Trump. Several yellow Dog Republicans around the office even confessed to me that--had they not known she was Hillary Clinton--they thought, "Wow, this person is really performing well!"

But what Trump has now--that he didn't before--is a record of service in public office. And that record is what Biden used against Ryan so effectively in 2012.

secondcor521

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3137
  • Age: 51
  • Location: Boise, Idaho
  • Big cattle, no hat.
    • Age of Eon - Overwatch player videos
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3048 on: April 25, 2020, 11:39:15 AM »
I wonder when it's too late for someone to mount a third-party run.  Mark Cuban has lately toyed with the idea.  Not saying he (or any third-party candidate) would win, but I do subscribe to the notion that third-party candidates can siphon votes from major party candidates (as mentioned above).

Cuban's still toying with the idea.  Do people think he would siphon off more Trump votes or Biden votes?  He seems relatively centrist to me.  I guess he could possibly hand Texas to Biden, which would probably be enough to elect Biden at the end of the day.  Florida might also be interesting to watch in that scenario, as I think they've been a swingy state with a lot of electoral votes.

sixwings

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 198
Re: 2020 POTUS Candidates
« Reply #3049 on: April 26, 2020, 08:11:41 AM »
Biden performed very well in the VP debate with Paul Ryan eight years ago. Debating Trump is not like debating Ryan.

I actually thought Sec. Clinton performed as well as she could have during the debates with Trump. Several yellow Dog Republicans around the office even confessed to me that--had they not known she was Hillary Clinton--they thought, "Wow, this person is really performing well!"

But what Trump has now--that he didn't before--is a record of service in public office. And that record is what Biden used against Ryan so effectively in 2012.

I thtink he record is pretty key. in 2016 there wasn't much record of Trump and he wasn'tt releasing any personal info so he could just say shit like I'm a billionaire businessman, i hire the best people, Obama sucks, ACA is a disaster i'll make something waaaay better etc. Now he can't do that because it's clear he screwed all that up.