Author Topic: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days  (Read 9849 times)

dycker1978

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11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« on: January 26, 2018, 07:43:20 AM »
I bring this up because it is incredibly sad.  I am not sure if anything will change, but this is just sad.

https://globalnews.ca/news/3986676/us-school-shootings-2018-donald-trump/

GuitarStv

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Re: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« Reply #1 on: January 26, 2018, 08:32:47 AM »
I don't think that Trump really has the power to do anything about it.  Easy access to guns for all is what the majority of Americans appear to want.  Mass shootings are a sad but completely predictable natural consequence of public support for these policies.

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Re: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« Reply #2 on: January 26, 2018, 12:21:04 PM »
I don't think that Trump really has the power to do anything about it.  Easy access to guns for all is what the majority of Americans appear to want.  Mass shootings are a sad but completely predictable natural consequence of public support for these policies.

Actually Trump is sending military weapons to local police/fire departments. Because you know, the best way to keep children safe is with more military weapons.

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Re: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« Reply #3 on: January 26, 2018, 01:00:26 PM »
So is this a willful ignorance about the cause of shootings or some sort of cultural or logical blind spot for conservatives? More guns won't help anything.

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Re: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« Reply #4 on: January 26, 2018, 01:03:29 PM »
As much of a gun related issue, I would say it is equally, if not more of, a mental health issue.  I feel like this is often lost in the discussion.

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Re: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« Reply #5 on: January 26, 2018, 01:04:39 PM »
Don't get me wrong, school shootings are awful, but in total we're looking at 3 homicides, 2 suicides, and 20 injuries according to the article posted. One of the suicides was a guy killing himself in a car in the parking lot of a school.

3 homicides among over 50 million students in the United states. That's 0.000006%. Again, it's awful, but let's keep in mind the actual magnitude of this problem. Anything can be made to sound like an epidemic when you use absolute numbers among an enormous sample size.

Quote
These are the school-related shootings that have happened so far in 2018:

Jan. 3 — St. John, Mich.: A man shoots himself in the parking lot of East Olive Elementary School.

Jan. 4 — Seattle, Wash.: A bullet is fired into New Start High School, but no one is injured.

Jan. 6 — Forest City, Iowa: A 32-year-old man fires at a school bus, and one window is shattered. No one is injured.

Jan. 10 — San Bernardino, Calif.: No one is injured after a bullet hits a building at California State University.

Jan. 10 — Denison, Texas: A Grayson College student accidentally fires a weapon, no one is injured.

Jan. 10 — Sierra Vista, Ariz.: A 14-year-old boy is found shot dead inside a bathroom at Coronado K-8 Elementary School. It appears to be a self-inflicted wound.

Jan. 15 — Marshall, Texas: A bullet is fired into a dorm room at Wiley College, with three female students inside. No one is injured.

Jan. 20 — Winston-Salem, N.C.: A 21-year-old student is shot dead after an argument at Wake Forest University.

Jan. 22 — Italy, Texas:  A 16-year-old boy shoots a female classmate at Italy High School.

Jan. 22 — New Orleans, La.: Shooting at Net Charter School leaves one male student injured.

Jan. 23 — Benton, Ky: High school shooting leaves two 15-year-old students dead, 18 injured.
« Last Edit: January 26, 2018, 01:15:39 PM by ooeei »

GuitarStv

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Re: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« Reply #6 on: January 26, 2018, 01:07:14 PM »

Travis

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Re: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« Reply #7 on: January 26, 2018, 01:33:05 PM »
I don't think that Trump really has the power to do anything about it.  Easy access to guns for all is what the majority of Americans appear to want.  Mass shootings are a sad but completely predictable natural consequence of public support for these policies.

Actually Trump is sending military weapons to local police/fire departments. Because you know, the best way to keep children safe is with more military weapons.

Police departments have been arming up since the early 1990s. That's nothing new.
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Re: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« Reply #8 on: January 26, 2018, 03:31:28 PM »
Don't get me wrong, school shootings are awful, but in total we're looking at 3 homicides, 2 suicides, and 20 injuries according to the article posted. One of the suicides was a guy killing himself in a car in the parking lot of a school.

3 homicides among over 50 million students in the United states. That's 0.000006%. Again, it's awful, but let's keep in mind the actual magnitude of this problem. Anything can be made to sound like an epidemic when you use absolute numbers among an enormous sample size.

Quote
These are the school-related shootings that have happened so far in 2018:

Jan. 3 — St. John, Mich.: A man shoots himself in the parking lot of East Olive Elementary School.

Jan. 4 — Seattle, Wash.: A bullet is fired into New Start High School, but no one is injured.

Jan. 6 — Forest City, Iowa: A 32-year-old man fires at a school bus, and one window is shattered. No one is injured.

Jan. 10 — San Bernardino, Calif.: No one is injured after a bullet hits a building at California State University.

Jan. 10 — Denison, Texas: A Grayson College student accidentally fires a weapon, no one is injured.

Jan. 10 — Sierra Vista, Ariz.: A 14-year-old boy is found shot dead inside a bathroom at Coronado K-8 Elementary School. It appears to be a self-inflicted wound.

Jan. 15 — Marshall, Texas: A bullet is fired into a dorm room at Wiley College, with three female students inside. No one is injured.

Jan. 20 — Winston-Salem, N.C.: A 21-year-old student is shot dead after an argument at Wake Forest University.

Jan. 22 — Italy, Texas:  A 16-year-old boy shoots a female classmate at Italy High School.

Jan. 22 — New Orleans, La.: Shooting at Net Charter School leaves one male student injured.

Jan. 23 — Benton, Ky: High school shooting leaves two 15-year-old students dead, 18 injured.

This is really important.  I'm a strong supporter of gun control, but facts. always. matter.

gooki

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Re: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« Reply #9 on: January 26, 2018, 03:49:33 PM »
Quote
3 homicides among over 50 million students in the United states. That's 0.000006%. Again, it's awful, but let's keep in mind the actual magnitude of this problem

Let's do some fuzzy maths.

50 million students divided by 1000 (average school size) makes 50,000 schools.

11 firearms incidents at schools per month makes 132 incidents per year.

Your children will likely spend 17 years at school.

50,000 / 132 / 17 = 22.28

That's right, your child has a one in twenty two chance of being at a school during a firearms incident.

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TrudgingAlong

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Re: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« Reply #10 on: January 26, 2018, 04:28:47 PM »


Haha, this is so how I see the US at this point... I don’t think I will ever understand how people believe any gun law is bad and some kind of affront to their humanity.

Indexer

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Re: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« Reply #11 on: January 26, 2018, 05:05:47 PM »
I don't think that Trump really has the power to do anything about it.  Easy access to guns for all is what the majority of Americans appear to want.  Mass shootings are a sad but completely predictable natural consequence of public support for these policies.

False. Easy access to guns for all is NOT what the majority of Americans want. The overwhelming majority of Americans support universal background checks(85-90% depending on the study). Even among NRA members, the majority(75%) support background checks.

source 1: http://www.politifact.com/wisconsin/statements/2017/oct/03/chris-abele/do-90-americans-support-background-checks-all-gun-/
source 2: https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2013/01/28/strong-majority-of-americans-nra-members-back-gun-control

Congressmen, specifically Republican congressmen, paid off by the gun lobby support easy access to guns.

BudgetSlasher

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Re: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« Reply #12 on: January 26, 2018, 05:11:18 PM »
As much of a gun related issue, I would say it is equally, if not more of, a mental health issue.  I feel like this is often lost in the discussion.

I agree; access to guns is part of the problem, but so is mental health, which is driven home by the fact that 2 of the 11 incidents appear to be suicides. (and honestly eduction and employment outlooks).

Quote
3 homicides among over 50 million students in the United states. That's 0.000006%. Again, it's awful, but let's keep in mind the actual magnitude of this problem

Let's do some fuzzy maths.

50 million students divided by 1000 (average school size) makes 50,000 schools.

11 firearms incidents at schools per month makes 132 incidents per year.

Your children will likely spend 17 years at school.

50,000 / 132 / 17 = 22.28

That's right, your child has a one in twenty two chance of being at a school during a firearms incident.

Those numbers are way off, so let us un-fuzz the math

The average size of a public school was 546.4 and there were 88,182 public schools (for the 2009-2010 year) https://nces.ed.gov/pubs2011/pesschools09/tables/table_05.asp

CAPE says there are another 33,619 private schools.

But those are only for k-12, some of the incidents took place at colleges and universities; let's use the total degree granting post secondary intuitions for this number as 6,742 for the 2009-2010 year.

So now the math looks like

(88,182 + 33,619+ 6,742) / (11*12) / 17

128,543 / 132 / 17 = 57.28...

Now if we use January as a base for the year and say firearm incidents a student would be at risk, then we should take January 4th parking lot suicide out of the equation (also the school was empty at the time) and the January 10th student suicide out of the equation. The math becomes

(88,182 + 33,619+ 6,742) / (9*12) / 17 = 70.01...

If we further eliminate the January 9th shooting a school bus as it was neither at school not was it a firearm (pellet gun), not that they cannot be lethal. the math becomes

(88,182 + 33,619+ 6,742) / (8*12) / 17 = 78.76...

All numbers and odds of being in danger at school aside any shooting injury or death is a tragedy, regardless of where it occurs or the age of the victim. At the very least, we should be able to have the conversation of what reasonable measures to prevent needless deaths are in terms of resources to enforce existing laws and update databases, allowing gun violence to be researched, allowing purchase records to be digital inventoried, even allowing (if not requiring) private sales to use the National Instant Criminal Background Check System, or addition gun control measure. Alas, we cannot seem to have a civil discussion on even one of those topics (even if we decided in the end to do nothing.)

But the conversation also needs to be truthful, a suicide in the parking lot of a school when school is empty should not be called a "school shooting." The focus on "assault rifles/weapons" is simply put focusing on a very small sub-set, most firearm murders where the weapon is identified are handguns by multi-fold margin (https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2014/crime-in-the-u.s.-2014/tables/expanded-homicide-data/expanded_homicide_data_table_8_murder_victims_by_weapon_2010-2014.xls).

MasterStache

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Re: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« Reply #13 on: January 26, 2018, 05:31:21 PM »
Always amazes me that's it's reduced down to a stat when it's not your child. I bet the folks suffering from the loss of a child could give a shit about stats.

BlueMR2

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Re: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« Reply #14 on: January 26, 2018, 07:30:33 PM »
Well, you have to turn it into cold stats.  If you ran a country based on individual anecdotes and emotion it's an unsustainable situation.  Which unfortunately seems to be where we're heading already.

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Re: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« Reply #15 on: January 26, 2018, 11:52:16 PM »
Always amazes me that's it's reduced down to a stat when it's not your child. I bet the folks suffering from the loss of a child could give a shit about stats.

It's the cold stats that determine where the most bad is that needs addressing and what is doing the most good that needs investing. If lack of seatbelt wearing kills 1 in 50,000 children versus school shootings that kill 1 in 100,000 children (made up numbers)-where should the money go? Guns are scary, and seatbelts aren't but cold hard numbers need to be applied, otherwise money and energy are going to be wasted and fewer children are protected.

jan62

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Re: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« Reply #16 on: January 27, 2018, 01:49:19 AM »
its actually not a mental health problem. People suffering mental illness are far more likely to be victims of violence than to commit violence. Other western countries have similar rates of mental health disorders and do not have the same level of gun violence. Its a matter of access to lethal means to commit violence on a large scale.  lets not start stigmatising people with mental health problems.

marty998

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Re: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« Reply #17 on: January 27, 2018, 02:53:22 AM »
its actually not a mental health problem. People suffering mental illness are far more likely to be victims of violence than to commit violence. Other western countries have similar rates of mental health disorders and do not have the same level of gun violence. Its a matter of access to lethal means to commit violence on a large scale.  lets not start stigmatising people with mental health problems.

Agree, it's not like Australia doesn't have people with mental illness. Babies simply don't get shot here while trying to learn their A B Cs

MasterStache

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Re: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« Reply #18 on: January 27, 2018, 06:30:38 AM »
Always amazes me that's it's reduced down to a stat when it's not your child. I bet the folks suffering from the loss of a child could give a shit about stats.

It's the cold stats that determine where the most bad is that needs addressing and what is doing the most good that needs investing. If lack of seatbelt wearing kills 1 in 50,000 children versus school shootings that kill 1 in 100,000 children (made up numbers)-where should the money go? Guns are scary, and seatbelts aren't but cold hard numbers need to be applied, otherwise money and energy are going to be wasted and fewer children are protected.

Look I am not trying to be mean but that is total bullshit. Hell it's a justification for NO gun regulation. Automobiles kill more people so why not focus all efforts and money on that? Of course cancer beats auto deaths, so screw autos! After 9/11 what happened with airports? The government sure as shit focused on airport/airline safety. Hell Trump is still trying to ban Muslims.

And how much money does it take exactly? I mean since innocent, unable to protect themselves, children aren't dying in large enough quantities to worry about?

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Re: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« Reply #19 on: January 27, 2018, 12:05:43 PM »
Quote
3 homicides among over 50 million students in the United states. That's 0.000006%. Again, it's awful, but let's keep in mind the actual magnitude of this problem

Let's do some fuzzy maths.

50 million students divided by 1000 (average school size) makes 50,000 schools.

11 firearms incidents at schools per month makes 132 incidents per year.

Your children will likely spend 17 years at school.

50,000 / 132 / 17 = 22.28

That's right, your child has a one in twenty two chance of being at a school during a firearms incident.

That is a sobering fuzzy analysis, and all the more reason to homeschool.

Johnez

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Re: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« Reply #20 on: January 27, 2018, 12:35:08 PM »
Always amazes me that's it's reduced down to a stat when it's not your child. I bet the folks suffering from the loss of a child could give a shit about stats.

It's the cold stats that determine where the most bad is that needs addressing and what is doing the most good that needs investing. If lack of seatbelt wearing kills 1 in 50,000 children versus school shootings that kill 1 in 100,000 children (made up numbers)-where should the money go? Guns are scary, and seatbelts aren't but cold hard numbers need to be applied, otherwise money and energy are going to be wasted and fewer children are protected.

Look I am not trying to be mean but that is total bullshit. Hell it's a justification for NO gun regulation. Automobiles kill more people so why not focus all efforts and money on that? Of course cancer beats auto deaths, so screw autos! After 9/11 what happened with airports? The government sure as shit focused on airport/airline safety. Hell Trump is still trying to ban Muslims.

And how much money does it take exactly? I mean since innocent, unable to protect themselves, children aren't dying in large enough quantities to worry about?

Alrighty, not trying to stir something up and I most definitely never said nor meant the bolded.

I have to say, your logic appears faulty. You are going the reductionalist way of thinking here where it isn't required. If you believe sensibly considering statistics means getting rid of gun control-this conversation has come to an end. Enjoy the lifestyle of black and white.

GuitarStv

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Re: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« Reply #21 on: January 27, 2018, 02:23:06 PM »
Speaking of the need to focus on stats . . . Is this yet another year where toddlers with access to firearms have killed more people in the US than terrorists?

shuffler

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Re: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« Reply #22 on: January 27, 2018, 02:42:55 PM »
Looking solely at the fuzzy-math that was extrapolating from the reports of this month's incidents ...

(88,182 + 33,619+ 6,742) / (8*12) / 17 = 78.76...
Kids are only in school 9 months out of 12.
(88,182 + 33,619+ 6,742) / (8 * 12 9) / 17 = 105

Note that 1/105 is just-under a 1% chance of attending a school that has a shooting incident.

But the conversation also needs to be truthful, a suicide in the parking lot of a school when school is empty should not be called a "school shooting."
Agreed.  And though I wouldn't want to have the burden of somehow being the official person to determine what qualifies as a school shooting or not, if we're going to be doing fuzzy-math, then we at least have to make an amateur-hour attempt at that distinction.

Personally, I'd further eliminate the Jan 10 event at Grayson, as it was an accidental discharge at a firearms-related class at a Criminal Justice college.
And the Jan 10 event at San Bernardino, which was a bullet from off-campus striking a building on-campus, and was after-hours, so doesn't seem especially school-related.
And the Jan 15 event at Marshall and the Jan 20 event at Winston-Salem, both of which were post-midnight and (IMO) are more likely representative of a general population of young people living in apartments and going to venues, than they are anything to do with schools.

Quote
These are the school-related shootings that have happened so far in 2018:
Jan. 3 — St. John, Mich.: A man shoots himself in the parking lot of East Olive Elementary School.
Jan. 4 — Seattle, Wash.: A bullet is fired into New Start High School, but no one is injured.
Jan. 6 — Forest City, Iowa: A 32-year-old man fires at a school bus, and one window is shattered. No one is injured.
Jan. 10 — San Bernardino, Calif.: No one is injured after a bullet hits a building at California State University.
Jan. 10 — Denison, Texas: A Grayson College student accidentally fires a weapon, no one is injured.
Jan. 10 — Sierra Vista, Ariz.: A 14-year-old boy is found shot dead inside a bathroom at Coronado K-8 Elementary School. It appears to be a self-inflicted wound.
Jan. 15 — Marshall, Texas: A bullet is fired into a dorm room at Wiley College, with three female students inside. No one is injured.
Jan. 20 — Winston-Salem, N.C.: A 21-year-old student is shot dead after an argument at Wake Forest University.

Jan. 22 — Italy, Texas:  A 16-year-old boy shoots a female classmate at Italy High School.
Jan. 22 — New Orleans, La.: Shooting at Net Charter School leaves one male student injured.
Jan. 23 — Benton, Ky: High school shooting leaves two 15-year-old students dead, 18 injured.

Under those considerations:
(88,182 + 33,619+ 6,742) / (8 4 * 9) / 17 = 210, which is ~0.47%

It would seem, in my opinion, that the first round of fuzzy-math (1 out of 22) was off by nearly an order of magnitude.

bacchi

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Re: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« Reply #23 on: January 27, 2018, 04:25:38 PM »
Under those considerations:
(88,182 + 33,619+ 6,742) / (8 4 * 9) / 17 = 210, which is ~0.47%

This is an order higher than the chance of being involved in a fatal car accident.

shuffler

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Re: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« Reply #24 on: January 27, 2018, 06:39:10 PM »
Under those considerations:
(88,182 + 33,619+ 6,742) / (8 4 * 9) / 17 = 210, which is ~0.47%

This is an order higher than the chance of being involved in a fatal car accident.
Does "involved in" mean "dying of" a fatal car accident?

It's sort of a strange comparison.  The school-shooting odds that we've been projecting here are the chances of being at school on the day of a shooting.  So the vast majority of students in that ~0.47% would have been in different classes, etc. and not even have seen the shooter directly.  A direct comparison to fatal car accidents might be something more like: the chances of being on the same road or in-the-general-vicinity-of a fatal car accident.  Or do it the other way around and compare against the chances of dying from a school shooting.

Anyhow, of course it's fundamentally unsound to base a projection on a single month's worth of "data".  It's probably not worth comparing the numbers we're coming up with here against actual stats from broader samples, and would be better to use data from an actual study of school shootings.

GrayGhost

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Re: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« Reply #25 on: January 27, 2018, 09:12:25 PM »
political cartoon

But, there have been instances of armed citizens stopping public shootings, or preventing them from getting worse. The most recent example is in Texas, where an armed NRA instructor chased down the shooter and killed him in a firefight. Another one I can think of off the top of my head is the one in the mall in Oregon, where a concealed carrier drew and aimed at a mass shooter who then committed suicide shortly thereafter.

Obviously concealed/open carry policies haven't totally ended mass shootings, but neither has any other proposed policy. (And before someone brings up a total ban on guns, that is clearly off the table, so it's really not worth discussing, especially in the post-Heller v DC US.) There is no evidence whatsoever to suggest that concealed or open carry policies are harmful, so I doubt there is much to be gained by rolling back the clock on these policies.

As well, there seems to be this perception that the NRA has "bought off" right wing politicians. This is not true, as the NRA spends very little money lobbying or contributing to political campaigns, certainly compared to other political organizations. The reason right wing politicians in the US tend to be extremely dogmatic about gun rights is that they have to... if you're a Republican who wants to restrict this gun or that gun, you're simply not going to make it into political office. There are too many single issue voters out there with a lot to personally lose, and let's face it, differences between the GOP and the Democratic Party are often more rhetorical than practical EXCEPT for when it comes to abortion and gun control. If you don't believe me, find a Republican who wants to ban guns and allow abortions or a Democrat who's cool with AR-15s but not Planned Parenthood.

As far as me goes... violence has been on the decline for twenty plus years in the US and while carry policies are probably not the number one factor affecting crime rates, the correlation between their implementation and less crime makes it impossible to argue that more guns necessarily equal more crime, regardless of how intuitive it may seem.
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bacchi

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Re: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« Reply #26 on: January 27, 2018, 11:42:28 PM »
As far as me goes... violence has been on the decline for twenty plus years in the US and while carry policies are probably not the number one factor affecting crime rates, the correlation between their implementation and less crime makes it impossible to argue that more guns necessarily equal more crime, regardless of how intuitive it may seem.

No, no.

There's a direct correlation between higher CPU power and less crime over the past 20 years. As CPU flops have increased, crime has decreased. This is evident in some poorer communities where crime hasn't decreased as much due to older computers.

libertarian4321

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Re: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« Reply #27 on: January 28, 2018, 04:23:54 AM »
I miss Obama.  That guy could really work up the hysteria every time there was a shooting anywhere.

Nothing sent the prices of guns stocks soaring like an Obama anti-gun rant.

Trump has been terrible for the gun industry.  His lack of hysterics (on this topic, at least), is resulting in rapidly falling gun and ammunition sales.

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Re: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« Reply #28 on: January 28, 2018, 05:16:22 AM »
Quote
3 homicides among over 50 million students in the United states. That's 0.000006%. Again, it's awful, but let's keep in mind the actual magnitude of this problem

Let's do some fuzzy maths.

50 million students divided by 1000 (average school size) makes 50,000 schools.

11 firearms incidents at schools per month makes 132 incidents per year.

Your children will likely spend 17 years at school.

50,000 / 132 / 17 = 22.28

That's right, your child has a one in twenty two chance of being at a school during a firearms incident.

That is a sobering fuzzy analysis, and all the more reason to homeschool.

As a public school teacher who works with a population of students more statistically at risk for these types of incidents, and as a parent myself, I absolutely disagree with this sentiment. You're welcome to homeschool your child(ren) Iris, but I don't see it as any reason at all to homeschool my son, or to stop working with students who have significant mental health needs.

MasterStache

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Re: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« Reply #29 on: January 28, 2018, 05:39:46 AM »
Always amazes me that's it's reduced down to a stat when it's not your child. I bet the folks suffering from the loss of a child could give a shit about stats.

It's the cold stats that determine where the most bad is that needs addressing and what is doing the most good that needs investing. If lack of seatbelt wearing kills 1 in 50,000 children versus school shootings that kill 1 in 100,000 children (made up numbers)-where should the money go? Guns are scary, and seatbelts aren't but cold hard numbers need to be applied, otherwise money and energy are going to be wasted and fewer children are protected.

Look I am not trying to be mean but that is total bullshit. Hell it's a justification for NO gun regulation. Automobiles kill more people so why not focus all efforts and money on that? Of course cancer beats auto deaths, so screw autos! After 9/11 what happened with airports? The government sure as shit focused on airport/airline safety. Hell Trump is still trying to ban Muslims.

And how much money does it take exactly? I mean since innocent, unable to protect themselves, children aren't dying in large enough quantities to worry about?

Alrighty, not trying to stir something up and I most definitely never said nor meant the bolded.

I have to say, your logic appears faulty. You are going the reductionalist way of thinking here where it isn't required. If you believe sensibly considering statistics means getting rid of gun control-this conversation has come to an end. Enjoy the lifestyle of black and white.

No I am referring to the logic in bold that, because not enough kids are dying, that the government isn't going to throw any sort of money at the problem. It wasn't my logic. It was yours. The government doesn't work that way and never has.

MasterStache

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Re: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« Reply #30 on: January 28, 2018, 05:50:42 AM »
I miss Obama.  That guy could really work up the hysteria every time there was a shooting anywhere.

Nothing sent the prices of guns stocks soaring like an Obama anti-gun rant.

Trump has been terrible for the gun industry.  His lack of hysterics (on this topic, at least), is resulting in rapidly falling gun and ammunition sales.

True. Even as the number of mass shootings continues to increase, with 2017 being the deadliest so far. 2018 is not looking so good. But hey, gun sales are down ( :

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Re: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« Reply #31 on: January 28, 2018, 10:24:18 AM »
As far as me goes... violence has been on the decline for twenty plus years in the US and while carry policies are probably not the number one factor affecting crime rates, the correlation between their implementation and less crime makes it impossible to argue that more guns necessarily equal more crime, regardless of how intuitive it may seem.

No, no.

There's a direct correlation between higher CPU power and less crime over the past 20 years. As CPU flops have increased, crime has decreased. This is evident in some poorer communities where crime hasn't decreased as much due to older computers.

That is a reductio ad absurdum because I didn't say that CCW policies have caused crime to go down. If anything, all the correlation shows for certain is that CCW policies do not cause crime to go up so much that all other anti-crime policies are suppressed.

It is saddening, however, that those who are so skeptical of the possibility that CCW policies may cause crime rates to decrease often take it as axiomatic that fewer guns equals less crime, when there simply is not convincing evidence towards that point.

EDIT: As for the fuzzy analysis, that is a horrendous abuse of probability and statistics.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2018, 10:30:52 AM by GrayGhost »
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Will

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Re: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« Reply #32 on: January 28, 2018, 10:51:18 AM »
"Thoughts and prayers" are really working!
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bacchi

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Re: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« Reply #33 on: January 28, 2018, 12:14:04 PM »
As far as me goes... violence has been on the decline for twenty plus years in the US and while carry policies are probably not the number one factor affecting crime rates, the correlation between their implementation and less crime makes it impossible to argue that more guns necessarily equal more crime, regardless of how intuitive it may seem.

No, no.

There's a direct correlation between higher CPU power and less crime over the past 20 years. As CPU flops have increased, crime has decreased. This is evident in some poorer communities where crime hasn't decreased as much due to older computers.

That is a reductio ad absurdum because I didn't say that CCW policies have caused crime to go down. If anything, all the correlation shows for certain is that CCW policies do not cause crime to go up so much that all other anti-crime policies are suppressed.

That's not actually reductio ad absurdum*. I simply pointed out, sarcastically, your questionable cause fallacy. Granted, I could have just repeated the statistician's mantra but it was more fun this way.

Quote
It is saddening, however, that those who are so skeptical of the possibility that CCW policies may cause crime rates to decrease often take it as axiomatic that fewer guns equals less crime, when there simply is not convincing evidence towards that point.

It is saddening that, if one questions any pro-gun argument, especially as it relates to the belief that more guns=fewer crimes, one is assumed to automatically be skeptical to the original premise.


Quote
EDIT: As for the fuzzy analysis, that is a horrendous abuse of probability and statistics.

Seems to be common around here.



*"Well, then, if EVERYONE were carrying a CCW, there would be 0 crimes!!1!! Is that what you're saying?" <=== ad absurdum

ender

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Re: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« Reply #34 on: January 28, 2018, 12:16:55 PM »
Always amazes me that's it's reduced down to a stat when it's not your child. I bet the folks suffering from the loss of a child could give a shit about stats.

It's the cold stats that determine where the most bad is that needs addressing and what is doing the most good that needs investing. If lack of seatbelt wearing kills 1 in 50,000 children versus school shootings that kill 1 in 100,000 children (made up numbers)-where should the money go? Guns are scary, and seatbelts aren't but cold hard numbers need to be applied, otherwise money and energy are going to be wasted and fewer children are protected.

Look I am not trying to be mean but that is total bullshit. Hell it's a justification for NO gun regulation. Automobiles kill more people so why not focus all efforts and money on that? Of course cancer beats auto deaths, so screw autos! After 9/11 what happened with airports? The government sure as shit focused on airport/airline safety. Hell Trump is still trying to ban Muslims.

And how much money does it take exactly? I mean since innocent, unable to protect themselves, children aren't dying in large enough quantities to worry about?

What it comes down to is people are far more passionate about fixing threats to their safety which are outside of their control vs controlling those that are within their sphere of influence (even if the external threats are orders of magnitude less likely to matter).

For example, for children 10-14, suicide is nearly 1.5x more likely to be a cause of death than all homicides (not just school shootings). Not to mention accidents being massively higher than either.

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Re: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« Reply #35 on: January 28, 2018, 12:47:20 PM »
I miss Obama.  That guy could really work up the hysteria every time there was a shooting anywhere.

Nothing sent the prices of guns stocks soaring like an Obama anti-gun rant.

Trump has been terrible for the gun industry.  His lack of hysterics (on this topic, at least), is resulting in rapidly falling gun and ammunition sales.

In a roundabout way we've achieved some sort of gun control. Or at least the main objective-less weapons and ammo being sold. Lol!

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Re: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« Reply #36 on: January 28, 2018, 03:22:16 PM »
As far as me goes... violence has been on the decline for twenty plus years in the US and while carry policies are probably not the number one factor affecting crime rates, the correlation between their implementation and less crime makes it impossible to argue that more guns necessarily equal more crime, regardless of how intuitive it may seem.

No, no.

There's a direct correlation between higher CPU power and less crime over the past 20 years. As CPU flops have increased, crime has decreased. This is evident in some poorer communities where crime hasn't decreased as much due to older computers.

That is a reductio ad absurdum because I didn't say that CCW policies have caused crime to go down. If anything, all the correlation shows for certain is that CCW policies do not cause crime to go up so much that all other anti-crime policies are suppressed.

It is saddening, however, that those who are so skeptical of the possibility that CCW policies may cause crime rates to decrease often take it as axiomatic that fewer guns equals less crime, when there simply is not convincing evidence towards that point.

EDIT: As for the fuzzy analysis, that is a horrendous abuse of probability and statistics.

Why does the US have such a high rate of "gun crime" compared to Canada and Europe?

(Wikipedia linky for reference:   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_firearm-related_death_rate)
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GrayGhost

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Re: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« Reply #37 on: January 28, 2018, 05:19:04 PM »
Probably, in no particular order, because of much different rates of poverty, mental illness, multi-generational problems with gangsterism, the drug war, ethnic conflicts and hopelessness or social disconnection.
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WhiteTrashCash

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Re: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« Reply #38 on: January 28, 2018, 05:51:14 PM »
School shootings are normal everyday events in the United States. We don't really even notice them anymore unless a relative gets killed. After Sandy Hook, when absolutely nothing was done about a whole lot of 1st graders who were murdered, the conversation about gun control was over and done with. In the United States, we love our firearms far more than we love our children.

I don't like it, but I don't get to set policy in this country.

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Re: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« Reply #39 on: January 28, 2018, 05:54:19 PM »
School shootings are normal everyday events in the United States. We don't really even notice them anymore unless a relative gets killed. After Sandy Hook, when absolutely nothing was done about a whole lot of 1st graders who were murdered, the conversation about gun control was over and done with. In the United States, we love our firearms far more than we love our children.

I don't like it, but I don't get to set policy in this country.

I don’t have kids.

So, I guess I don’t give a shit.
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PKFFW

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Re: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« Reply #40 on: January 28, 2018, 05:54:37 PM »
Probably, in no particular order, because of much different rates of poverty, mental illness, multi-generational problems with gangsterism, the drug war, ethnic conflicts and hopelessness or social disconnection.
Agreed, except for the inclusion of "mental illness" in that list.

The mental illness smokescreen is used as an easy way of avoiding the real and multifaceted issues around the high gun crime rate.  There is zero credible evidence that the USA suffers from a statistically significant higher rate of mental illness than any other developed country.

WhiteTrashCash

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Re: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« Reply #41 on: January 28, 2018, 06:31:21 PM »
School shootings are normal everyday events in the United States. We don't really even notice them anymore unless a relative gets killed. After Sandy Hook, when absolutely nothing was done about a whole lot of 1st graders who were murdered, the conversation about gun control was over and done with. In the United States, we love our firearms far more than we love our children.

I don't like it, but I don't get to set policy in this country.

I don’t have kids.

So, I guess I don’t give a shit.

Yeah, other people's children can go fuck themselves, amirite?

GrayGhost

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Re: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« Reply #42 on: January 28, 2018, 06:36:45 PM »
Probably, in no particular order, because of much different rates of poverty, mental illness, multi-generational problems with gangsterism, the drug war, ethnic conflicts and hopelessness or social disconnection.
Agreed, except for the inclusion of "mental illness" in that list.

The mental illness smokescreen is used as an easy way of avoiding the real and multifaceted issues around the high gun crime rate.  There is zero credible evidence that the USA suffers from a statistically significant higher rate of mental illness than any other developed country.

You're right. I probably should have said something like, the way we deal with mental illness in this country probably affects things. Back in the day we would lock people up for mental problems, and while that system definitely had its problems and excesses, our current response isn't what I'd call effective.
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GuitarStv

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Re: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« Reply #43 on: January 28, 2018, 06:40:58 PM »
political cartoon

But, there have been instances of armed citizens stopping public shootings, or preventing them from getting worse. The most recent example is in Texas, where an armed NRA instructor chased down the shooter and killed him in a firefight. Another one I can think of off the top of my head is the one in the mall in Oregon, where a concealed carrier drew and aimed at a mass shooter who then committed suicide shortly thereafter.

Mass shootings aren't the only reason that it's unsafe to have easy access to firearms for everyone.  Toddlers shoot people (including themselves) at roughly a weekly basis in the US.  https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/09/29/american-toddlers-are-still-shooting-people-on-a-weekly-basis-this-year/?utm_term=.7c521a6db759

The most recent example was three days ago:  http://kfor.com/2018/01/25/toddler-dies-after-shooting-himself-in-head-with-shotgun-at-fort-worth-home/



violence has been on the decline for twenty plus years in the US and while carry policies are probably not the number one factor affecting crime rates, the correlation between their implementation and less crime makes it impossible to argue that more guns necessarily equal more crime, regardless of how intuitive it may seem.

I'm not doing this argument again.  The US has already spoken.  Your side won.  Enjoy the safety that easy access to guns for has provided you with.

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Re: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« Reply #44 on: January 28, 2018, 08:00:41 PM »
Could it be possible to have liberalized concealed/open carry laws, and policies that might prevent children from accessing firearms? For example, if you have children in your house, you must do x/y/z to secure your guns? I don't know anyone who would permit children to have unsupervised access to guns, including hunters and sportsmen who own 15-20+ guns.
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ender

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Re: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« Reply #45 on: January 28, 2018, 08:09:22 PM »
Could it be possible to have liberalized concealed/open carry laws, and policies that might prevent children from accessing firearms? For example, if you have children in your house, you must do x/y/z to secure your guns? I don't know anyone who would permit children to have unsupervised access to guns, including hunters and sportsmen who own 15-20+ guns.

Most people I know with guns think it's absurd that people with children keep them loaded and accessible.

Part of the problem is there is a massive dereliction of duty by parents in these cases and you can't really mandate people be responsible.

I'm not sure how to get this data, but I'd be surprised if more than a fraction of gun deaths and injuries inflicted by children were not ultimately the fault of irresponsible parenting.

GrayGhost

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Re: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« Reply #46 on: January 28, 2018, 08:13:43 PM »
There aren't even many accidental gun deaths in the US. It seems shocking to say that it happens every week or what have you, but in a country of 300 million with over 300 million firearms, it's just not that probable. Certainly accidental gun deaths are tragic, but no more so than any other accidental, preventable death.
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Re: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« Reply #47 on: January 28, 2018, 08:41:23 PM »
Do we have to do this maths again?

15,586 gun deaths per year
x
85 years (your average age)
=
1,324,810 gun related deaths during your life time.

Yip you read that right, over a million fellow citizens will die due to gun related incidents, on US soil during your life time.

http://www.gunviolencearchive.org/past-tolls
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GrayGhost

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Re: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« Reply #48 on: January 28, 2018, 08:48:05 PM »
I believe the number you've cited is gun homocides per year. If we were to include suicides, the number would be quite a lot higher. But, as high as the number may be, the question is, what laws may affect those numbers and what costs do they have. You don't just get to put the problem in perspective and then presuppose that your preferred solution is therefore correct.
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gooki

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Re: 11 School Shootings in 26 Days
« Reply #49 on: January 28, 2018, 08:57:46 PM »
I haven't proposed any solutions. Just putting the numbers into perspective.

If gun deaths keep inflating at their current rate 3%,  you're looking at nearly six million deaths over an 85 year life time.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2018, 09:00:10 PM by gooki »
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