Author Topic: "Years and years" TV show on HBO/BBC...spinning crazy further to a societal apoc  (Read 1084 times)

Sjalabais

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 292
  • King of Chocolatistan
Has anyone here been watching "years and years", an HBO/BBC coproduction? It is amazing. I am a pessimist when it comes to our wacko financial systems that are build on trust, expectations and "balls" rather than rational predictability. The show spins the current unravelling of societal standards further, and includes a banking run, among other things. It's fiction, but entirely believable...at least until the end of episode, where we are now.

Is anyone else watching this? Do you have any kind of plan B for a scenario of this kind?

maizefolk

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7430
Just finished episode #2. So far it reminds me a bit of the "The Mandibles: A Family, 2029-2047" although with a slower build towards crisis in terms of story-telling.

Having not seen the rest of the series yet, I don't know how bad things will get. Based on how things are where I am right now: diversification.

1) First, remember that, while it may drop a lot and stay low for a long time, in the long term the stock market isn't going to go to zero short of a Mad Max/Waterworld type scenario where we'll all have far worse things to worry about (or a Star Trek type scenario where we stop using money and won't have anything to worry about). The stock market in Germany survived both hyperinflation, the death of two currencies (the Mark and the Reichsmark), losing two major world wars, and a subsequent occupation.

2) On the other hand bank failures and bank runs certainly do happen. It's good to have accounts with at least a couple of institutions. Historically FDIC insurance usually only takes a few days to kick in if the bank you have your account with fails, but in a major crisis it might be longer so it's good to have alternatives you could tap to cover living expenses if you couldn't access your primary bank account for a couple of weeks or even a month or two.

3) Don't hoard cash (in the bank). I'm bad about following this one myself although a lot better than I used to be. Leaving aside the issue of bank runs, cash is also losing value to inflation constantly. Given what I've seen so far in the show my guess is that we see hyperinflation sometime in the next four episodes.

4) Now to flip that around, do keep SOME physical cash around. Again, this is a buffer against problems accessing your bank account, but it's also great for power or internet outages that shut down credit card readers. Common in hurricanes, ice storms, earthquakes, and now in California whenever it gets dry and windy enough to make PG&E nervous.

5) Blend in. Avoid ostentatious displays of wealth like fancy cars/clothes/houses (FIRE makes this a lot easier for many of us). Don't live in the "rich" part of town. Just come across as part of the 99% (or 90% or 70% or 51%), not the 1% (or 10% or 30% or 49%). When people feel like they have no money, no options and no hope that tends to boil over into protests and riots and mob violence. You don't want to be a the sort of person who'd be targeted. <-- this hasn't shown up in the show yet, but might in the remaining episodes.

(So far the show is pretty griping although also kind of depressing.)
« Last Edit: October 30, 2019, 06:46:58 PM by maizeman »

Sjalabais

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 292
  • King of Chocolatistan
All great advice, and all things we do - except for the cash-in-bank. Way too much money lying around and losing its value here. My distrust in financial markets means I can't  even fully call myself part of the FIRE movement.

But, yes, a very depressing series that seems to end on horrible notes every time. But it's good to have this as a guideline for what we don't want.

Going to check out the Mandibles...

maizefolk

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7430
After finishing the series up (only six episodes), I'd say that for me the bank run scene was probably about as bad as it got. Predicted hyperinflation never came. Certainly worse things happen in the show, but they didn't feel as real -- whether because of how it was filmed or because a lot of the other bad things are ones that show up in movies/tv shows a lot more often than bank runs.

If you aren't comfortable with financial markets, it's worth thinking about where that distrust is coming from. Are you worried about another stock market crash? Inflation? Fraud?

Personally, it looks like I'm down to about 8% of net worth (just over 2 years expenses) in cash. At my worst I was at about six years of expenses in cash which, at the time, was just over 1/2 of my net worth. Knowing there is plenty of money in the bank(s) helps me sleep better at night, so it's mostly been a process of experimenting with how much money I need sitting around in order to get that benefit, without keeping more money than that unnecessarily out of the market.