Author Topic: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "  (Read 23602 times)

OzzieandHarriet

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"The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« on: September 08, 2019, 10:13:28 PM »
I read this piece today and agree with everything he says. Opinions?

https://www.newyorker.com/culture/cultural-comment/what-if-we-stopped-pretending

bacchi

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #1 on: September 08, 2019, 10:53:38 PM »
Oh, yeah, we're fucked.

It won't be a Mad Max situation but there will be food shortages even in the US and Canada. Brown outs, gas only available once a week, fewer choices of consumer goods -- life will change entirely in the next 75 years.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #2 on: September 08, 2019, 11:02:35 PM »
In the gym we say that people overestimate possible changes in the short term, and underestimate possible changes in the long-term. I believe it's the same with climate change.

It's also the same with resource depletion which is as serious a problem to our Western lifestyle, but which nobody likes to talk about these days.

ecchastang

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #3 on: September 09, 2019, 04:40:51 AM »
Anyone who thinks we can stop what has already been set in motion is delusional.  First, the US is just 15% of global emissions.  Second, people like the "idea" of a carbon tax and not using fossil fuels, until they are laid off and until they have to pay double for the price of goods and services. The best thing we can do is prepare for the inevitable. 

the_gastropod

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #4 on: September 09, 2019, 06:23:24 AM »
Anyone who thinks we can stop what has already been set in motion is delusional.  First, the US is just 15% of global emissions.  Second, people like the "idea" of a carbon tax and not using fossil fuels, until they are laid off and until they have to pay double for the price of goods and services. The best thing we can do is prepare for the inevitable.

Yesóthe US is responsible for 15% of emissions and represents just 4% of the world population. Thatís pretty disgusting.

While some awful climate effects are inevitable, continuing along the status quo only makes matters worse. We need to take our foot off the accelerator ASAP.

Linea_Norway

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #5 on: September 09, 2019, 06:45:38 AM »
Jared Diamond wrote a book called Collaps, which describes that advanced civilizations can collaps within a few decades. I think that will happen with most of the modernized world, as we are not taking climate changes seriously.

Fresh Bread

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #6 on: September 09, 2019, 06:53:05 AM »
Anyone who thinks we can stop what has already been set in motion is delusional.  First, the US is just 15% of global emissions.  Second, people like the "idea" of a carbon tax and not using fossil fuels, until they are laid off and until they have to pay double for the price of goods and services. The best thing we can do is prepare for the inevitable.

Yesóthe US is responsible for 15% of emissions and represents just 4% of the world population. Thatís pretty disgusting.

While some awful climate effects are inevitable, continuing along the status quo only makes matters worse. We need to take our foot off the accelerator ASAP.

Totally agree. It's the difference between a temp rise of 1.5deg, 2deg or under BAU, 4deg or more which is total disaster, end of days stuff. And anyway, can you imagine the change in attitude required to make millions of refugees be welcome?

15% of the emissions is huge! What other country is responsible for such a percentage except China? It is absolutely imperative that the US act.
« Last Edit: September 09, 2019, 07:08:01 AM by Fresh Bread »

EvenSteven

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #7 on: September 09, 2019, 08:45:22 AM »
Global climate change is a huge problem that will need a huge effort to mitigate, but I don't think it's helpful to crank up the fear machine. Quote from the article:

Quote
As a non-scientist, I do my own kind of modelling. I run various future scenarios through my brain, apply the constraints of human psychology and political reality, take note of the relentless rise in global energy consumption (thus far, the carbon savings provided by renewable energy have been more than offset by consumer demand), and count the scenarios in which collective action averts catastrophe.

Lol.

eljefe-speaks

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #8 on: September 09, 2019, 08:51:44 AM »
My reaction: stop writing pieces for the New Yorker and give us a follow-up to Purity! The wait is killing me! lol
« Last Edit: September 09, 2019, 09:08:17 AM by eljefe-speaks »

GuitarStv

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #9 on: September 09, 2019, 11:55:38 AM »
Yesóthe US is responsible for 15% of emissions and represents just 4% of the world population. Thatís pretty disgusting.

While some awful climate effects are inevitable, continuing along the status quo only makes matters worse. We need to take our foot off the accelerator ASAP.

One easy way to take your foot off the accelerator is to stop buying shit.

The US is directly responsible for 15% of emissions . . . but that number would be an awful lot higher if we calculated in all the stuff that is manufactured purely for US demand.  Just because you outsourced labor to countries without environmental protections doesn't mean all the pollution caused by your demand disappears.  Canada is exactly the same way (as is the UK).

Kris

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #10 on: September 09, 2019, 12:01:25 PM »
Yesóthe US is responsible for 15% of emissions and represents just 4% of the world population. Thatís pretty disgusting.

While some awful climate effects are inevitable, continuing along the status quo only makes matters worse. We need to take our foot off the accelerator ASAP.

One easy way to take your foot off the accelerator is to stop buying shit.

The US is directly responsible for 15% of emissions . . . but that number would be an awful lot higher if we calculated in all the stuff that is manufactured purely for US demand.  Just because you outsourced labor to countries without environmental protections doesn't mean all the pollution caused by your demand disappears.  Canada is exactly the same way (as is the UK).

But... but buying things = freedom(tm)!

OzzieandHarriet

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #11 on: September 09, 2019, 12:11:51 PM »
Global climate change is a huge problem that will need a huge effort to mitigate, but I don't think it's helpful to crank up the fear machine. Quote from the article:

Quote
As a non-scientist, I do my own kind of modelling. I run various future scenarios through my brain, apply the constraints of human psychology and political reality, take note of the relentless rise in global energy consumption (thus far, the carbon savings provided by renewable energy have been more than offset by consumer demand), and count the scenarios in which collective action averts catastrophe.

Lol.



Isn’t the point of this piece that the huge effort isn’t happening and isn’t likely to happen, so what CAN we do? I don’t think it’s fear-mongering but an attempt to be realistic.
« Last Edit: September 09, 2019, 12:25:01 PM by OzzieandHarriet »

the_gastropod

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #12 on: September 09, 2019, 12:13:12 PM »

One easy way to take your foot off the accelerator is to stop buying shit.

The US is directly responsible for 15% of emissions . . . but that number would be an awful lot higher if we calculated in all the stuff that is manufactured purely for US demand.  Just because you outsourced labor to countries without environmental protections doesn't mean all the pollution caused by your demand disappears.  Canada is exactly the same way (as is the UK).

Yea, no kidding. And then there's the scrap we ship to China for recycling. Itís amazing that our number is a whopping 15% before all the outsourcing we do. This is another reason the continued finger pointing at China and India is so frustrating. They have many times more people than the U.S., *and* theyíre manufacturing and recycling our crap.


ecchastang

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #13 on: September 09, 2019, 05:03:22 PM »
Global climate change is a huge problem that will need a huge effort to mitigate, but I don't think it's helpful to crank up the fear machine. Quote from the article:

Quote
As a non-scientist, I do my own kind of modelling. I run various future scenarios through my brain, apply the constraints of human psychology and political reality, take note of the relentless rise in global energy consumption (thus far, the carbon savings provided by renewable energy have been more than offset by consumer demand), and count the scenarios in which collective action averts catastrophe.

Lol.



Isnít the point of this piece that the huge effort isnít happening and isnít likely to happen, so what CAN we do? I donít think itís fear-mongering but an attempt to be realistic.
Exactly.  Realistically, humans will never come together in a meaningful way to clean up the mess we created.  Inevitably Nature will take care of it.  Should we stop polluting, producing and reproducing....certainly.  Will it happen....certainly not.

eljefe-speaks

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #14 on: September 10, 2019, 07:22:49 AM »
Half the country is powerless to do anything for the environment because it is more important to own the libs. Laura Ingraham closed an episode posing with incandescent light bulbs and plastic drinking straws inserted into a large steak. Take that libs!

I totally agree with Franzen. If this is where we are in 2019, we're fucked as a species.

ecchastang

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #15 on: September 10, 2019, 07:33:53 AM »
Half the country is powerless to do anything for the environment because it is more important to own the libs. Laura Ingraham closed an episode posing with incandescent light bulbs and plastic drinking straws inserted into a large steak. Take that libs!

I totally agree with Franzen. If this is where we are in 2019, we're fucked as a species.
And the other half pays mostly lip service to the issue without ever actually doing anything substantial.  I agree with your assessment of our species. 

EvenSteven

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #16 on: September 10, 2019, 08:08:15 AM »
Global climate change is a huge problem that will need a huge effort to mitigate, but I don't think it's helpful to crank up the fear machine. Quote from the article:

Quote
As a non-scientist, I do my own kind of modelling. I run various future scenarios through my brain, apply the constraints of human psychology and political reality, take note of the relentless rise in global energy consumption (thus far, the carbon savings provided by renewable energy have been more than offset by consumer demand), and count the scenarios in which collective action averts catastrophe.

Lol.



Isnít the point of this piece that the huge effort isnít happening and isnít likely to happen, so what CAN we do? I donít think itís fear-mongering but an attempt to be realistic.

I'm not entirely sure what the point of the piece is, but the effect of the piece is to make the problem worse. If you think it is hopeless and nothing we can do will make anything better, then that might not matter to you one way or the other.

Who should I listen to, climatologists, or celebrity authors with no scientific training?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/doomsday-scenarios-are-as-harmful-as-climate-change-denial/2017/07/12/880ed002-6714-11e7-a1d7-9a32c91c6f40_story.html?noredirect=on

OzzieandHarriet

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #17 on: September 10, 2019, 08:30:01 AM »
Global climate change is a huge problem that will need a huge effort to mitigate, but I don't think it's helpful to crank up the fear machine. Quote from the article:

Quote
As a non-scientist, I do my own kind of modelling. I run various future scenarios through my brain, apply the constraints of human psychology and political reality, take note of the relentless rise in global energy consumption (thus far, the carbon savings provided by renewable energy have been more than offset by consumer demand), and count the scenarios in which collective action averts catastrophe.

Lol.



Isnít the point of this piece that the huge effort isnít happening and isnít likely to happen, so what CAN we do? I donít think itís fear-mongering but an attempt to be realistic.

I'm not entirely sure what the point of the piece is, but the effect of the piece is to make the problem worse. If you think it is hopeless and nothing we can do will make anything better, then that might not matter to you one way or the other.

Who should I listen to, climatologists, or celebrity authors with no scientific training?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/doomsday-scenarios-are-as-harmful-as-climate-change-denial/2017/07/12/880ed002-6714-11e7-a1d7-9a32c91c6f40_story.html?noredirect=on

But ... that WaPo piece is just more of the same ďif we roll up our sleeves now and do what needs to be done we can solve this.Ē That was written two years ago, and if anything things are worse now from a political will standpoint. Weíve seen the US government falling more and more into a chaos that is hard to believe, including tearing down the few environmental policies that we did have in place.

Franzen is not saying we should do nothing but that we should be working to make the social fiber better in any way we can because if nothing else it will cushion the inevitable.

StarBright

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #18 on: September 10, 2019, 08:35:22 AM »
Half the country is powerless to do anything for the environment because it is more important to own the libs. Laura Ingraham closed an episode posing with incandescent light bulbs and plastic drinking straws inserted into a large steak. Take that libs!

I totally agree with Franzen. If this is where we are in 2019, we're fucked as a species.
And the other half pays mostly lip service to the issue without ever actually doing anything substantial.  I agree with your assessment of our species.

I don't know if that is entirely true though? I've been really lucky to recently live in/near two small towns (both in purple states) that have definite environmental missions as part of their governing goals. My current neighborhood has a neighborhood pollinator plan and three monarch way stations, and our town has a goal to be the most green in our state (and currently is, drawing over 40% of its power from renewables).

The town I lived before this one had more of a focus on water systems and public transportation instead of renewables, but both towns have been really impressive when it comes to environmental goals. If I can land in two of these places by accident, surely there are a lot of areas around the United States that aren't just paying lip service?

Davnasty

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #19 on: September 10, 2019, 08:38:34 AM »
Global climate change is a huge problem that will need a huge effort to mitigate, but I don't think it's helpful to crank up the fear machine. Quote from the article:

Quote
As a non-scientist, I do my own kind of modelling. I run various future scenarios through my brain, apply the constraints of human psychology and political reality, take note of the relentless rise in global energy consumption (thus far, the carbon savings provided by renewable energy have been more than offset by consumer demand), and count the scenarios in which collective action averts catastrophe.

Lol.



Isnít the point of this piece that the huge effort isnít happening and isnít likely to happen, so what CAN we do? I donít think itís fear-mongering but an attempt to be realistic.

I'm not entirely sure what the point of the piece is, but the effect of the piece is to make the problem worse. If you think it is hopeless and nothing we can do will make anything better, then that might not matter to you one way or the other.

Who should I listen to, climatologists, or celebrity authors with no scientific training?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/doomsday-scenarios-are-as-harmful-as-climate-change-denial/2017/07/12/880ed002-6714-11e7-a1d7-9a32c91c6f40_story.html?noredirect=on

Whenever I hear someone express the opinion that it's already too late I have to wonder what actions they're taking on a personal level. In other words, are they a realist who accepts that bad things are going to happen regardless and understands that "how bad" depends on our actions OR are they just making an excuse to not take any personal responsibility or make an effort to improve the situation.

Cool Friend

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #20 on: September 10, 2019, 08:52:22 AM »
Jesus guys, read the article before assuming you already know what is being said in it.


Quote
. If collective action resulted in just one fewer devastating hurricane, just a few extra years of relative stability, it would be a goal worth pursuing.

In fact, it would be worth pursuing even if it had no effect at all. To fail to conserve a finite resource when conservation measures are available, to needlessly add carbon to the atmosphere when we know very well what carbon is doing to it, is simply wrong. Although the actions of one individual have zero effect on the climate, this doesnít mean that theyíre meaningless. Each of us has an ethical choice to make.


Quote
And then thereís the matter of hope. If your hope for the future depends on a wildly optimistic scenario, what will you do ten years from now, when the scenario becomes unworkable even in theory? Give up on the planet entirely? To borrow from the advice of financial planners, I might suggest a more balanced portfolio of hopes, some of them longer-term, most of them shorter. Itís fine to struggle against the constraints of human nature, hoping to mitigate the worst of whatís to come, but itís just as important to fight smaller, more local battles that you have some realistic hope of winning.


bacchi

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #21 on: September 10, 2019, 08:59:57 AM »
Whenever I hear someone express the opinion that it's already too late I have to wonder what actions they're taking on a personal level. In other words, are they a realist who accepts that bad things are going to happen regardless and understands that "how bad" depends on our actions OR are they just making an excuse to not take any personal responsibility or make an effort to improve the situation.

Anyone reading the Franzen article should come to these paragraphs,

Quote from: franzen
First of all, even if we can no longer hope to be saved from two degrees of warming, thereís still a strong practical and ethical case for reducing carbon emissions.
[...]
In fact, it would be worth pursuing even if it had no effect at all. To fail to conserve a finite resource when conservation measures are available, to needlessly add carbon to the atmosphere when we know very well what carbon is doing to it, is simply wrong.

In the US, we're faced with a Senate that will be hard to flip. I'd love to see a Green New Deal but it will never pass. Perhaps the one good thing about Trump's actions are the budget precedent of moving money around -- take from the military, give to green projects.

The next President (Warren?) can reinstate CAFE and light bulb standards and power plant regulations but that's a drop in the bucket. It will take a sea change in the way we live our lives. Even getting everyone on 100% renewable power won't cut it if we're still buying shit from China made in factories powered by coal or if we're using our wealth to fly to exotic places.

Davnasty

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #22 on: September 10, 2019, 09:18:30 AM »
Whenever I hear someone express the opinion that it's already too late I have to wonder what actions they're taking on a personal level. In other words, are they a realist who accepts that bad things are going to happen regardless and understands that "how bad" depends on our actions OR are they just making an excuse to not take any personal responsibility or make an effort to improve the situation.

Anyone reading the Franzen article should come to these paragraphs,

Quote from: franzen
First of all, even if we can no longer hope to be saved from two degrees of warming, thereís still a strong practical and ethical case for reducing carbon emissions.
[...]
In fact, it would be worth pursuing even if it had no effect at all. To fail to conserve a finite resource when conservation measures are available, to needlessly add carbon to the atmosphere when we know very well what carbon is doing to it, is simply wrong.

In the US, we're faced with a Senate that will be hard to flip. I'd love to see a Green New Deal but it will never pass. Perhaps the one good thing about Trump's actions are the budget precedent of moving money around -- take from the military, give to green projects.

The next President (Warren?) can reinstate CAFE and light bulb standards and power plant regulations but that's a drop in the bucket. It will take a sea change in the way we live our lives. Even getting everyone on 100% renewable power won't cut it if we're still buying shit from China made in factories powered by coal or if we're using our wealth to fly to exotic places.

Perhaps I shouldn't have quoted where I did. My comment was in response to posters in this thread, not the article.

Edit: ya, that was confusing :) Should have quoted ecchastang
« Last Edit: September 10, 2019, 09:21:59 AM by Dabnasty »

eljefe-speaks

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #23 on: September 10, 2019, 09:33:40 AM »
Half the country is powerless to do anything for the environment because it is more important to own the libs. Laura Ingraham closed an episode posing with incandescent light bulbs and plastic drinking straws inserted into a large steak. Take that libs!

I totally agree with Franzen. If this is where we are in 2019, we're fucked as a species.
And the other half pays mostly lip service to the issue without ever actually doing anything substantial.  I agree with your assessment of our species.

The other half is far more likely to vote for climate policy and do what they can to help alleviate the problem. The Trump Party denies there is a problem and is openly hostile to any proposed solutions.

Davnasty

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #24 on: September 10, 2019, 09:58:00 AM »
Half the country is powerless to do anything for the environment because it is more important to own the libs. Laura Ingraham closed an episode posing with incandescent light bulbs and plastic drinking straws inserted into a large steak. Take that libs!

I totally agree with Franzen. If this is where we are in 2019, we're fucked as a species.

That image may make it into our children's textbooks.

Caption: Media personality mocks efforts to slow climate change. Mocking the science of climate change was a primary tactic of the political right until 20??

GuitarStv

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #25 on: September 10, 2019, 09:58:55 AM »
The fundamental problems associated with climate change haven't altered at all:

- Doing something to fix the problem now means more discomfort than doing nothing.  Because we didn't do anything significant while the problem was building, this discomfort is getting greater.
- There's a large scale and concerted effort to tell people that they don't need to worry.  Magical science will fix the problem.  You can't trust science, it's all opinion.  There's no problem anyway.  There's a small problem, but it's totally natural and will just go away.  Climatologists facts are as valid as oil barons opinions.
- There's no threat immediate enough to pull people's heads out of their asses

We're not quite in a doomsday scenario, yet but I see very little likelihood of us doing anything substantial to mediate the problem until we're well past one.  The first point above will continue to be a bigger and bigger driver in behaviour to block solutions, the second one will continue will continue to give people who don't want to think about it an easy way to ignore the growing threat.

Aelias

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #26 on: September 10, 2019, 11:02:01 AM »
What I think the article adds to the current climate conversation is that, even when we're talking about the Green New Deal and massive renewable energy projects, we're actually thinking too narrowly about the impacts climate change will have on people's lives and, perhaps, overinvesting in cutting emissions as a result. 

As a bunch of people have already said--this does not mean cutting emissions is pointless.  But it does mean that  strengthening the social fabric of our communities, which will be essential if we want to prevent the wholesale collapse of society, is just as important.   And while limiting emissions sufficiently to slow the rising climate is largely outside of any individual's circle of control, taking small steps to building stronger communities is within everyone's grasp and not only makes the world more climate-resilient in the future, it make the world a better place right now.

Right now, anyone can commit to:

- checking in on their neighbors in extreme heat or other bad weather
- donating blood and supplies to organizations that respond to natural disasters
- supporting local agriculture / growing a garden
- donating coats and other cold weather clothes to a domestic violence or homeless shelter

To put it another way, we need to come to grips with the fact that life is probably going to get harder rather than easier, particularly for those who are vulnerable and marginalized already. What keeps people going in hard times are strong social bonds -- communities look out for each other, and individuals participate because they trust that if they fall on hard times, others will help them.  We should take opportunities now to care for those who are vulnerable, both individually and by building strong institutions.  Because, sooner than we think, we will all be more vulnerable. 


Papa bear

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #27 on: September 10, 2019, 12:28:48 PM »
So, should I factor for a 4% withdrawal rate for my rice and bean stores or would a 3% rate be more prudent given current waistline inflation?

In all seriousness, does the information provided change anyoneís FIRE plans?  And if it does, what are you changing or planning for?




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Linea_Norway

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #28 on: September 10, 2019, 01:12:47 PM »
So, should I factor for a 4% withdrawal rate for my rice and bean stores or would a 3% rate be more prudent given current waistline inflation?

In all seriousness, does the information provided change anyoneís FIRE plans?  And if it does, what are you changing or planning for?


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Yes, my thoughts are: FIRE as soon as possible as long as society still is the way it is. If apocolypse starts in let's say 20 years from now, then I want to gave had a couple of nice, non-working years before the shit hits the fan. I also don't feel like becoming one of the few heavily armed survivors.

Boofinator

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #29 on: September 10, 2019, 02:09:44 PM »
Great article.

Quote
Finally, overwhelming numbers of human beings, including millions of government-hating Americans, need to accept high taxes and severe curtailment of their familiar life styles without revolting. They must accept the reality of climate change and have faith in the extreme measures taken to combat it. They canít dismiss news they dislike as fake. They have to set aside nationalism and class and racial resentments. They have to make sacrifices for distant threatened nations and distant future generations.

I don't think this is as far-fetched as the author makes it out to be. He discusses tipping points in nature, but he fails to account for it in politics. Hopefully we reach critical mass sooner rather than later.

Papa bear

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #30 on: September 10, 2019, 02:43:50 PM »
So, should I factor for a 4% withdrawal rate for my rice and bean stores or would a 3% rate be more prudent given current waistline inflation?

In all seriousness, does the information provided change anyoneís FIRE plans?  And if it does, what are you changing or planning for?


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Yes, my thoughts are: FIRE as soon as possible as long as society still is the way it is. If apocolypse starts in let's say 20 years from now, then I want to gave had a couple of nice, non-working years before the shit hits the fan. I also don't feel like becoming one of the few heavily armed survivors.

So, ďYOLO! Iím going to get hit by the climate bus anyway.Ē ?



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CCCA

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #31 on: September 10, 2019, 03:38:13 PM »
Global climate change is a huge problem that will need a huge effort to mitigate, but I don't think it's helpful to crank up the fear machine. Quote from the article:

Quote
As a non-scientist, I do my own kind of modelling. I run various future scenarios through my brain, apply the constraints of human psychology and political reality, take note of the relentless rise in global energy consumption (thus far, the carbon savings provided by renewable energy have been more than offset by consumer demand), and count the scenarios in which collective action averts catastrophe.

Lol.


Yup, that quote is more than a bit ridiculous. 

We definitely need to policy changes and pricing changes if we are to mitigate GHG emissions.  Things can happen fairly quickly, IF the appropriate incentives are in place, or not at all if we keep the same structure we have now.
« Last Edit: September 10, 2019, 05:37:04 PM by CCCA »

RangerOne

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #32 on: September 10, 2019, 04:40:02 PM »
I mean at this point there is no proposed legislation will notably mitigate the course we are on. How bad will the global temperature be for life in 30, 50 or 100 years is still open to debate. Unchecked it will be bad its just not 100% clear if it apocalypse bad in 30 years or 100 years.

I think the best we can hope for is that over the next 50 years, improvements in green energy and carbon capture technology can start to not just mitigate but reverse some of the damage.

We are not getting out of this without some amount of technical wizardry. But I would have to think that 100 more years of technology, baring a total meltdown of all advanced countries, will start to yield some ability to do some impressive environmental engineering or borderline terraforming to get us back to an okay state. Obviously some things like species loss and the like probably can't be reversed, but how hard can cooling a planet be....

scottish

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #33 on: September 10, 2019, 05:00:47 PM »
I think of the climate apocalypse as colonizing mars minus the space travel and low gravity.   Oh and 7B people appear at once.

Better learn how to terraform. 

Linea_Norway

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #34 on: September 10, 2019, 09:10:55 PM »
The scientists say that preparing the world for the approaching climate changes is still mamy times easier than terraforming Mars. At least here you will always have air to breath and water.

I also don't understand Musk who wants to transport many people to Mars. Think of the climate impact all those rocket launches will have. I am always crinching when I see another rocket being launched.

Linea_Norway

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #35 on: September 10, 2019, 09:14:24 PM »
So, should I factor for a 4% withdrawal rate for my rice and bean stores or would a 3% rate be more prudent given current waistline inflation?

In all seriousness, does the information provided change anyoneís FIRE plans?  And if it does, what are you changing or planning for?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yes, my thoughts are: FIRE as soon as possible as long as society still is the way it is. If apocolypse starts in let's say 20 years from now, then I want to gave had a couple of nice, non-working years before the shit hits the fan. I also don't feel like becoming one of the few heavily armed survivors.

So, ďYOLO! Iím going to get hit by the climate bus anyway.Ē ?



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

A little bit, but we don't know when it will happen. We might have 40 years of good life left. So we better have our FIRE number high enough. But there is no reason to OMY after you reach your number.

I also don't intend to travel the world and uses lots of airplanes while we still can. I will rather try to live low impact.

waltworks

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #36 on: September 10, 2019, 09:21:12 PM »
We've already made the choice that we're going to geoengineer (on could argue we already have, by adding all that CO2 to the atmosphere). Might as well start getting serious about it. I personally think we're clever enough to solve the problem, but I guess we'll find out.

-W

middo

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #37 on: September 10, 2019, 09:54:47 PM »
I also look at this from a slightly different perspective:

If we move from coal fired power stations to renewables, then those who currently live near coal fired power stations will have improved air quality and we should benefit from a more robust distributed generation system.

If we move to electric transport then the air quality of our cities will be improved overnight.

If our manufacturing uses less greenhouse gases then our air quality will again improve.

These things are worth doing whether we stop global warming or not.

BicycleB

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #38 on: September 10, 2019, 10:07:55 PM »
I mean at this point there is no proposed legislation will notably mitigate the course we are on.

Actually there is. Look up the US Congress's current House Resolution 763, the Energy Independence and Carbon Dividend Act. Better yet, urge your Congressional Representative to cosponsor it, and your Senators to file a companion bill.

https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/763

I saw an awesome dashboard a couple weeks ago that integrates the 20 or so biggest climate input factors identified by IPCC, starts with the best estimate available of their impact, and provides slider controls that allow you to modify each input yourself to calculate the overall temperature increase estimated for the end of the century. IIRC correctly the initial estimate was about 8 degrees Celsius of increase. The most impactful slider was the one for passing legislation comparable to the Carbon Dividend Act. By itself (if, I assume, similar legislation goes worldwide...but if the the US passes it, it's possible the rest of the world will get there too) this one factor would reduce the increase by about 3 degrees C.

The second most powerful slider was the one for technology impact. If it goes to the high end instead of the medium one, AND the Climate Dividend Act is passed, the temp in year 2100 drops 5 degrees C instead of 3 degrees. If the bill were to pass this year, carbon emissions would according the model we saw actually begin decreasing in the middle 2020s. So passing this one bill gives us a shot at preventing more than half of the potential temperature increase.
« Last Edit: September 10, 2019, 10:14:08 PM by BicycleB »

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #39 on: September 10, 2019, 10:33:24 PM »
The scientists say that preparing the world for the approaching climate changes is still mamy times easier than terraforming Mars. At least here you will always have air to breath and water.

I also don't understand Musk who wants to transport many people to Mars. Think of the climate impact all those rocket launches will have. I am always crinching when I see another rocket being launched.
A single Falcon 9 launch burns about the same fuel as four 737s going maximum range. There are almost 40 million commercial passenger flights per year versus around 20 Falcon 9 launches per year. Being generous with assumptions on average aircraft size and distance flown, that means the global commercial passenger industry outputs as much CO2 every 3 minutes as all F9 launches in a year. For the all global space launches, the number is probably considerably less than 15 minutes of comparable average commercial passenger aviation emissions.

Terraforming Mars is for suckers--would be much easier to build and live in space tubes. The sun outputs enough energy to support life in artificial habitats with a total surface area on the order of a billion times the surface area of the earth.

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #40 on: September 10, 2019, 11:03:33 PM »
I mean at this point there is no proposed legislation will notably mitigate the course we are on.

Actually there is. Look up the US Congress's current House Resolution 763, the Energy Independence and Carbon Dividend Act. Better yet, urge your Congressional Representative to cosponsor it, and your Senators to file a companion bill.

https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/763

I saw an awesome dashboard a couple weeks ago that integrates the 20 or so biggest climate input factors identified by IPCC, starts with the best estimate available of their impact, and provides slider controls that allow you to modify each input yourself to calculate the overall temperature increase estimated for the end of the century. IIRC correctly the initial estimate was about 8 degrees Celsius of increase. The most impactful slider was the one for passing legislation comparable to the Carbon Dividend Act. By itself (if, I assume, similar legislation goes worldwide...but if the the US passes it, it's possible the rest of the world will get there too) this one factor would reduce the increase by about 3 degrees C.

The second most powerful slider was the one for technology impact. If it goes to the high end instead of the medium one, AND the Climate Dividend Act is passed, the temp in year 2100 drops 5 degrees C instead of 3 degrees. If the bill were to pass this year, carbon emissions would according the model we saw actually begin decreasing in the middle 2020s. So passing this one bill gives us a shot at preventing more than half of the potential temperature increase.
This bill is far too reasonable to ever pass; the mere fact of its existence is making me question if I'm actually in some wine-induced feverish dream. The Republicans will hate it because (even if you don't write it on the tin) a tax is a tax and global warming is a lie. Many Democrats will not like it because it explicitly recognizes the power of pricing and incentives to drive massive behavioral changes (old Bernie will be confused: how can this work if it doesn't impose a million bans and a million subsidies?).

Montecarlo

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #41 on: September 11, 2019, 04:33:01 AM »
Thereís a prisonerís dilemma here, for nations as a whole.

Best course: emit or donít emit.

Scenario 1: other countries are emitting
Best course: emit.

Scenario 2: other countries arenít emitting
Best course: emit.


Leisured

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #42 on: September 11, 2019, 07:47:21 AM »
The notorious Lord Monckton comes from Scotland, which will benefit from climate change, which he knows. Canada, Russia and North Europe will all benefit from the rising temperatures, which these regions know.

People in the tropics will suffer from climate change, and if a billion people die in thirty years from climate crop failure,our species will still continue. It is important to understand that.

The situation now is the reverse of the situation 65 million years ago when an asteroid hit the Earth and caused an asteroid winter, as dust and ash reduced the sun's heat reaching the land. The tropics became temperate, and all dinosaurs weighing more than 35 kg died. Crocodiles are reptiles, not dinosaurs, and did well as starving animals came to rivers to drink. Crocs are good survivors, particularly as they can survive for a few weeks between meals, being cold blooded.

Our near future is the reverse. Tropics will not be the place to live, and colder region such as Canada and Northern Europe wheat will move north  European wheat will be grown as tropical countries lose food production. Plants stop de production when temperatures exceed about 35C.

So the idea that our species - for all our failures - will become extinct is absurd. Near the end of the movie Titanic, people in a lifeboat discussed whether they should try try and pick up people floating in life jackets in very cold water, and the consensus was that they did not need to be overwhelmed by 'refugees' from cold water swamping lifeboats.

The same policies apply today.


Cool Friend

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #43 on: September 11, 2019, 08:11:23 AM »
The species ultimately surviving isn't much of a consolation to me in light of the widespread death and suffering that will take place, because it was avoidable and "we" chose to do nothing instead.  That it's possible, perhaps likely, that the species will survive is another excuse for those with wealth and power to continue to do nothing.  They'll live, after all.  No big deal if billions die unnecessarily.

PDXTabs

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #44 on: September 11, 2019, 08:22:13 AM »
So the idea that our species - for all our failures - will become extinct is absurd.

I don't believe that anyone is saying that. Our species will not go extinct (although plenty of others will). Our way of life will go extinct.

Near the end of the movie Titanic, people in a lifeboat discussed whether they should try try and pick up people floating in life jackets in very cold water, and the consensus was that they did not need to be overwhelmed by 'refugees' from cold water swamping lifeboats. The same policies apply today.

Yes, but this time around:
  • The people in the lifeboats are dumping cold water on the other people at an unprecedented rate.
  • The people outside of the lifeboats are still on solid land and there are a lot of them.
  • The economies in the lifeboats are completely dependent on the economies outside of the lifeboats.

PDXTabs

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #45 on: September 11, 2019, 08:30:38 AM »
This bill is far too reasonable to ever pass...

You may be correct on this one.

The Republicans will hate it because (even if you don't write it on the tin) a tax is a tax and global warming is a lie.

Sadly, here too.

Many Democrats will not like it because it explicitly recognizes the power of pricing and incentives to drive massive behavioral changes (old Bernie will be confused: how can this work if it doesn't impose a million bans and a million subsidies?).

Some will wring their hands, but do you really think that it wouldn't get the votes to pass? Especially since it opens up the door to a whole new funding model for public works.

BicycleB

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #46 on: September 11, 2019, 08:35:51 AM »
I mean at this point there is no proposed legislation will notably mitigate the course we are on.

Actually there is. Look up the US Congress's current House Resolution 763, the Energy Independence and Carbon Dividend Act. Better yet, urge your Congressional Representative to cosponsor it, and your Senators to file a companion bill.

https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/763

I saw an awesome dashboard a couple weeks ago that integrates the 20 or so biggest climate input factors identified by IPCC, starts with the best estimate available of their impact, and provides slider controls that allow you to modify each input yourself to calculate the overall temperature increase estimated for the end of the century. IIRC correctly the initial estimate was about 8 degrees Celsius of increase. The most impactful slider was the one for passing legislation comparable to the Carbon Dividend Act. By itself (if, I assume, similar legislation goes worldwide...but if the the US passes it, it's possible the rest of the world will get there too) this one factor would reduce the increase by about 3 degrees C.

The second most powerful slider was the one for technology impact. If it goes to the high end instead of the medium one, AND the Climate Dividend Act is passed, the temp in year 2100 drops 5 degrees C instead of 3 degrees. If the bill were to pass this year, carbon emissions would according the model we saw actually begin decreasing in the middle 2020s. So passing this one bill gives us a shot at preventing more than half of the potential temperature increase.
This bill is far too reasonable to ever pass; the mere fact of its existence is making me question if I'm actually in some wine-induced feverish dream. The Republicans will hate it because (even if you don't write it on the tin) a tax is a tax and global warming is a lie. Many Democrats will not like it because it explicitly recognizes the power of pricing and incentives to drive massive behavioral changes (old Bernie will be confused: how can this work if it doesn't impose a million bans and a million subsidies?).

LOL re wine-induced feverish dream. Very enjoyable writing!

I remember at work one time we were soberly doing a Very Important Project based on energy prices. Gasoline prices in the US had recently rocketed from $2 and 2.50 per gallon to $3.50 and $4, depending on the day and the state. Someone mentioned that while we were assuming that prices would rise in the future, perhaps we should include the possibility of lower ones in our model too. Project Manager rolled his eyes and stated firmly "We'll never see prices below $4 again." He was never a PM again after that project.

Maybe political deadlock is as solid as fuel prices were. It's worth pushing for a worthy bill to pass, I think.

If you're a US citizen looking for scripts and how-to, or would be willing to put in a consistent 10 minutes per month toward preventing climate apocolypse, Citizens Climate Lobby has a page that gives you the contact info for your representatives based on your address, plus a script to use in calling their office. Afterward, if you accept, they will send prompts every month or so summarazing key actions of that sort which can be taken in a few minutes.

Contact Your Representative page:
https://citizensclimatelobby.org/call-your-representative-about-the-energy-innovation-and-carbon-dividend-act/#/54/

Overall site (group is international, I just gave US info because I'm in the US)
https://citizensclimatelobby.org/

PS. CCL drafted the bill. It has several dozen cosponsors already. Passage in 2019 is unlikely IMHO but pushing for it is a useful step towards passage in 2021. By getting involved, you shift from passive consumer of grim headlines to active creator of a better world. Taking action on at least one headline or issue per month will change your relationship to "the news" forever. #MustacheStrong #StoicWins  :)


Papa bear

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #48 on: September 11, 2019, 10:23:59 AM »
So, should I factor for a 4% withdrawal rate for my rice and bean stores or would a 3% rate be more prudent given current waistline inflation?

In all seriousness, does the information provided change anyoneís FIRE plans?  And if it does, what are you changing or planning for?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yes, my thoughts are: FIRE as soon as possible as long as society still is the way it is. If apocolypse starts in let's say 20 years from now, then I want to gave had a couple of nice, non-working years before the shit hits the fan. I also don't feel like becoming one of the few heavily armed survivors.

So, ďYOLO! Iím going to get hit by the climate bus anyway.Ē ?



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

A little bit, but we don't know when it will happen. We might have 40 years of good life left. So we better have our FIRE number high enough. But there is no reason to OMY after you reach your number.

I also don't intend to travel the world and uses lots of airplanes while we still can. I will rather try to live low impact.

Ok - so maybe you adjusted your FIRE number up to be more conservative.  Risks of inflated food prices, etc.   

So for planning purposes to anyone else.  If you adjust your FIRE number, have you also adjusted your asset allocation? More hard assets, like real estate, land, etc and less paper assets?  And I guess Iím asking specifically if anyone changed because of this risk.  I own plenty of real estate in areas that may see financial benefit due to climate change, but thatís not why I own it. 

Basically, if what the article describes actually happens in your lifetime, what can you do personally to mitigate your risk?


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Villanelle

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #49 on: September 11, 2019, 12:31:32 PM »
I'm glad I don't have kids.  I still care about plenty of people and it's not as though I'm all, "fuck planet earth; I only need it for a handful more decades!".   But I suspect I'd care heartbreakingly more about my own flesh and blood.  I look at my friends with kids, and who are still producing friends (one is probably in labor as I type this!) and it seems like the biggest act of unfounded optimism one could ever commit.   Maybe their kids will be the ones who fix things, or drag us back from the brink of Really Bad Shit, or who build the silos and related support systems in which humans will live in the future. Or who will solve the science necessary to colonize Mars.  One can hope.  But I marvel at the unanchored courage it takes to create another human who will live through whatever is to come, or whose children will live through it (or worse yet, not live through it).  Maybe it will all be fine, and I suspect that is what is required for so many people to keep creating future humans.  The ostrich that buries his head in the sand sometimes does survive.  (Fun fact: ostriches don't actually bury their heads in the sand, but they do lay on the ground and let their heads and necks blend into the color of the dirt.)

Of course, those who had babies during the nuclear arms race, or WWII, or the world's various plagues and pandemics, all probably required similar optimism, which turned out to be warranted.