Author Topic: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "  (Read 21076 times)

davisgang90

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #150 on: September 28, 2019, 07:29:30 AM »
This is a good post by Scott Adams.

I agree with him on nuclear power and other options to alleviate the climate issues. 

https://www.scottadamssays.com/2019/09/23/a-message-for-children-about-climate-change

scottish

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #151 on: September 28, 2019, 10:11:08 AM »
Wow, that's really weird.   A Scott Adams post I largely agree with.

bacchi

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #152 on: September 28, 2019, 10:58:08 AM »
Wow, that's really weird.   A Scott Adams post I largely agree with.

There are a lot of things wrong with that essay but the last paragraph has this doozy:

Quote from: scottadams
We adults have this problem under control, or will soon, and youíll help us finish the job.

It's all under control! Or will be soon by the recently passed legislation something-prayers-something.

Keep whistling past the graveyard, Scott.



scottish

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #153 on: September 28, 2019, 12:02:54 PM »
I never believed that the governments of the world would do much to mitigate climate change.    For example, they're fiddling around with carbon taxes, but a carbon tax sufficient to make a radical change in behaviour would be political suicide.    Do you really think legislation will address climate change?

The points Adams makes that I agree with are:

1.  The news is sensationalist.    If you go to the front page of a major new site such as the nytimes, the number of opinion pieces is pretty excessive.   Climate reports in the news are also sensationalist.

2.  Nuclear power generation is a safe, low carbon method and we should be using it more.

3.  Climate change will take place gradually and allow people to adjust.    The adjustments may not be popular, but there's lots of time.

You're right in saying that it's not under control.    We need to keep up the pressure to innovate and move away from our fossil fuel based economy.    There's no reason not to be rationally optimistic, we just need to think of the solution in terms of innovation instead of legislation.   If people are waiting for legislation to fix climate change they're going to have a long wait.

GuitarStv

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #154 on: September 28, 2019, 12:49:09 PM »
1.  In what way do you believe that climate reporting is sensationalist?  The research that I've read is all pretty clear that we have an immediate and rapidly worsening problem.  To date there has been no technological breakthrough or advancement capable of pulling us out of this situation, and very little political will to make the changes necessary to stop it without.

2.  I'm generally in favour of nuclear plants myself, but think it is a mistake to view them as a panacea for all the world's problems.  There are issues related to waste storage, accidents (although exceedingly rare), and long term fuel supply.

3.  This reads as pure fantasy fiction to me, but I'd like to give you a better chance to explain.  Exactly how many years do you believe we have to adjust before we start to see significant impacts from climate change?  In the past 30 years, what successes in reversing human caused climate change are you aware of?

Kyle Schuant

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #155 on: September 28, 2019, 06:57:42 PM »
Scott Adams' post is popular because what it's really saying is, "We don't have to do anything." Anything which promotes inertia will of course have many supporters.

If a solution is (for example) no more driving, then you and I have to do something. If it's nuclear power, we don't have to do anything. Which is going to be more popular? :)

pecunia

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #156 on: September 29, 2019, 08:17:57 AM »
There was once a time when the United States had a Camelot president when Nuclear Power was not viewed as a the last option.  It was sort of viewed as a gift given to humanity for the future.  Maybe it's time to truly embrace that gift as a tool that is needed.

You know think about cars.  Think how far cars have come since the 1960s.  Think about how far computers have come since the 1960s.

A lot of nuclear plants running today were designed using tried and true 1960s technology.  Not bad really, it got mankind to the moon in those times.  Times have moved on.  We have better technology.

If new designs were allowed to be built, they would have higher thermodynamic efficiency and have less waste.

You want to fix this climate problem or just talk about it?

scottish

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #157 on: September 29, 2019, 08:52:48 AM »
1.  In what way do you believe that climate reporting is sensationalist?  The research that I've read is all pretty clear that we have an immediate and rapidly worsening problem.  To date there has been no technological breakthrough or advancement capable of pulling us out of this situation, and very little political will to make the changes necessary to stop it without.

2.  I'm generally in favour of nuclear plants myself, but think it is a mistake to view them as a panacea for all the world's problems.  There are issues related to waste storage, accidents (although exceedingly rare), and long term fuel supply.

3.  This reads as pure fantasy fiction to me, but I'd like to give you a better chance to explain.  Exactly how many years do you believe we have to adjust before we start to see significant impacts from climate change?  In the past 30 years, what successes in reversing human caused climate change are you aware of?

1.  Here's a sensationalist article:
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-meaningful-climate-action-in-canada-is-doomed/
The subtitle is
Quote
Once, this country led the global conversation that helped save the ozone layer. Now, in a climate crisis, we canít even have an honest conversation among ourselves about what must be done to save us all

There are new ones every day.

2.  It sounds like we generally agree on nuclear power.   If we continue to improve designs of nuclear power plants, safety and efficiency will continue to increase.   I think they are alot better than coal fired electrical plants...

3.   Things are changing slowly.   Toronto is only 76m above sea level.   How long until downtown TO is flooded?   Low lying areas like New Orleans will have more immediate problems, but they are a small fraction of the total.    Two climate problems that have been addressed in the last 30 years are acid rain and ozone layer depletion.   

But those examples just prove my point.   Acid rain and ozone layer depletion were relatively small scope problems that could be addressed without a huge impact to our current economy.    More creative solutions than carbon taxes and other legislation are needed to deal with global climate change.


BicycleB

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #158 on: September 29, 2019, 09:58:19 AM »
More creative solutions than carbon taxes and other legislation are needed to deal with global climate change.

That's very true! In particular, I agree that technological improvements (possibly including nice safe modern nuclear reactors) are important solutions that should be pursued.

Yet we also need legislation (such as carbon tax and dividend methods, where the tax money returns directly to the people, so the net cost is zero for typical consumers). We need both.

Fwiw, I saw a comprehensive climate model the other day that integrated about 20 of the largest known factors affecting climate, based on IPCC reports, and combined their effects to estimate temperature in 2100. It was configured so that each factor's impact was represented by a slider in which current policies and effectiveness could be varied to higher or lower levels, affecting the calculated temperature. It appeared that no one factor was sufficient.

The sliders were initially set at current levels, which the model calculated would produce a temperature increase of about 8 degrees from baseline levels. The second biggest individual factor appeared to technological improvements, but by itself, that made a difference of a little more than one degree IIRC. Most factors only did one or tenths by themselves, so technology is powerful. But the biggest impact was a combination. The biggest factor was price-and-dividend legislation, which by itself was projected to make nearly 3 degrees' worth of improvement. But if technology improved along with implementing price-and-dividend, the combination of just those two had about 5 degrees of impact - they were stronger together than apart. Getting the overall result down to 2 degrees instead of 3 required adding several other factors.

maizeman

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #159 on: September 29, 2019, 10:26:05 AM »
That's very true! In particular, I agree that technological improvements (possibly including nice safe modern nuclear reactors) are important solutions that should be pursued.

Yet we also need legislation (such as carbon tax and dividend methods, where the tax money returns directly to the people, so the net cost is zero for typical consumers). We need both.

Carbon tax and dividend would be a real game changer.

A carbon tax by itself can get attacked with all of the usual approaches used to shoot down new taxes, especially the ones about pushing families living on the edge into bankruptcy.

The dividend part neutralizes a lot of regular ways a method to raise taxes gets attacked as it lets us increase the cost of carbon emissions to create economic incentives for 1) increases in efficiency at both the individual consumer and corporate levels 2) adoption of current lower/zero emission alternatives by produces and 3) R&D into new tech for, all without squeezing poor families.

The other thing a carbon tax-and-dividend would do is create a built in constituency of people benefiting from the dividend that would advocate both against any future attempts to roll back the tax and probably for increases in the tax to increase the size of the dividend. Just look at how invested Alaskans are in their oil dividend.*

This provides a lot more regulatory certainty, so corps have bigger incentives to invest in new more-efficient/lower-emission infrastructure** as well as R&D with long term payoffs than with a regular tax or cap implemented by one president (or governor) where the optimal strategy for them may be to simply pay the tax for 4 or 8 years and then back a candidate who promises to repeal it.

So like you said, BicycleB, the combination of technology and regulation is greater than the sum of the individual parts.

*Although I will be the first to admit that the Alaskan example isn't perfect. It's better to have a strong firewall between dividend money and  the regular government budget, so you don't produce situations like the one up there this year where the government tried to cut the budget of the university of alaska 40% to increate the size of the dividend they'd be able to pay.
**Which of course includes expensive nuclear reactors which take multiple elections to build.

pecunia

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #160 on: September 29, 2019, 11:27:09 AM »
Right now any new nuke plant you build is going to be a prototype, a pilot plant.

If the technology was honed with the first one and replicated, shouldn't the cost go down a lot for the next ones?

Most everything else works that way.

Linea_Norway

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #161 on: October 01, 2019, 02:50:57 AM »
For those of you who do believe that climate apocalypse is indeed coming (soon):

Today I read about Deep Adaptation. That is a movement of people who believe that the climate apocalypse cannot be avoided anymore and that we better prepare for what awaits us, collapse of society as we know it.
I found a local facebook group with similarly thinking people.

partgypsy

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #162 on: October 01, 2019, 11:19:06 AM »
For those of you who do believe that climate apocalypse is indeed coming (soon):

Today I read about Deep Adaptation. That is a movement of people who believe that the climate apocalypse cannot be avoided anymore and that we better prepare for what awaits us, collapse of society as we know it.
I found a local facebook group with similarly thinking people.

I haven't heard that. I mean, anything we do at this point will simply blunt or mitigate the change, we can't prevent it at this point. Most species on the planet will not be able to "adapt" to this quick of a climate change, especially as environments and ecosystems are being used or degraded by human activities at the same time.
So, both will need to be done. We will need to figure out and implement reducing c02 emissions long term. We will also need to adapt to the changes that climate change will bring. As both of these things will mean a restriction in energy, foodstuffs and resources, they are not contradictory impulses. I just wish the US could figure a way to wean ourselves off our car habit...  That sad, I don't want me and my kids just to "survive". Existing is not good enough goal but a way we can move to sustaining cultures and societies that are less stressful on this planet.
« Last Edit: October 01, 2019, 11:20:59 AM by partgypsy »

ncornilsen

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #163 on: October 01, 2019, 11:33:21 AM »
That's very true! In particular, I agree that technological improvements (possibly including nice safe modern nuclear reactors) are important solutions that should be pursued.

Yet we also need legislation (such as carbon tax and dividend methods, where the tax money returns directly to the people, so the net cost is zero for typical consumers). We need both.

Carbon tax and dividend would be a real game changer.

A carbon tax by itself can get attacked with all of the usual approaches used to shoot down new taxes, especially the ones about pushing families living on the edge into bankruptcy.

The dividend part neutralizes a lot of regular ways a method to raise taxes gets attacked as it lets us increase the cost of carbon emissions to create economic incentives for 1) increases in efficiency at both the individual consumer and corporate levels 2) adoption of current lower/zero emission alternatives by produces and 3) R&D into new tech for, all without squeezing poor families.

The other thing a carbon tax-and-dividend would do is create a built in constituency of people benefiting from the dividend that would advocate both against any future attempts to roll back the tax and probably for increases in the tax to increase the size of the dividend. Just look at how invested Alaskans are in their oil dividend.*

This provides a lot more regulatory certainty, so corps have bigger incentives to invest in new more-efficient/lower-emission infrastructure** as well as R&D with long term payoffs than with a regular tax or cap implemented by one president (or governor) where the optimal strategy for them may be to simply pay the tax for 4 or 8 years and then back a candidate who promises to repeal it.

So like you said, BicycleB, the combination of technology and regulation is greater than the sum of the individual parts.

*Although I will be the first to admit that the Alaskan example isn't perfect. It's better to have a strong firewall between dividend money and  the regular government budget, so you don't produce situations like the one up there this year where the government tried to cut the budget of the university of alaska 40% to increate the size of the dividend they'd be able to pay.
**Which of course includes expensive nuclear reactors which take multiple elections to build.


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GuitarStv

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #164 on: October 01, 2019, 12:29:28 PM »
1.  In what way do you believe that climate reporting is sensationalist?  The research that I've read is all pretty clear that we have an immediate and rapidly worsening problem.  To date there has been no technological breakthrough or advancement capable of pulling us out of this situation, and very little political will to make the changes necessary to stop it without.

2.  I'm generally in favour of nuclear plants myself, but think it is a mistake to view them as a panacea for all the world's problems.  There are issues related to waste storage, accidents (although exceedingly rare), and long term fuel supply.

3.  This reads as pure fantasy fiction to me, but I'd like to give you a better chance to explain.  Exactly how many years do you believe we have to adjust before we start to see significant impacts from climate change?  In the past 30 years, what successes in reversing human caused climate change are you aware of?

1.  Here's a sensationalist article:
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-meaningful-climate-action-in-canada-is-doomed/
The subtitle is
Quote
Once, this country led the global conversation that helped save the ozone layer. Now, in a climate crisis, we canít even have an honest conversation among ourselves about what must be done to save us all

There are new ones every day.

The title of the article is sensational. The part you quoted is completely true ever since high ranking members of the Conservative party started denying that climate change is a real thing.  An honest conversation is difficult to have when one group has decided that it's politically expedient to tell people that they can be as wasteful as they want with no repercussions.



3.   Things are changing slowly.   Toronto is only 76m above sea level.   How long until downtown TO is flooded?   Low lying areas like New Orleans will have more immediate problems, but they are a small fraction of the total.    Two climate problems that have been addressed in the last 30 years are acid rain and ozone layer depletion.   

But those examples just prove my point.   Acid rain and ozone layer depletion were relatively small scope problems that could be addressed without a huge impact to our current economy.    More creative solutions than carbon taxes and other legislation are needed to deal with global climate change.

You didn't answer my questions.

The climate does change slowly.  But we've been observing these changes now for fifty years.  The ten warmest years on record have all occurred in the past 20 years.  That's a very fast change.  There are significant changes currently recorded in both the ocean and cryosphere (https://report.ipcc.ch/srocc/pdf/SROCC_FinalDraft_FullReport.pdf).  Many of these changes have been measured since the 60s, 70s, and 80s.  They have all worsened over that period of time.

So I have to ask you again . . . exactly how many more years do you believe we have to adjust?  Will you wait until Toronto is under water before you decide that it's time to do something?  Or until there's no more polar ice cap?  Or is there a threshold of extinction events that you're waiting for?  What will motivate you to believe that the problem we've been warned about and seen coming for decades is something worth addressing?

Our economy is largely to blame for the climate problems we're seeing.  It's not surprising that solutions impact the economy.  I've quite surprised that you're against carbon taxes . . . as that's one of the simplest way to encourage people and companies to behave properly - charge them some of the cost of the damage that they're doing.  You believe that more creative solutions are needed to deal with climate change?

OK.  Cool.  Let's hear them.

If you don't provide these solutions, but instead only try to tear down what people are currently working on . . .  you're just worsening the problem by perpetuating a status quo that has been failing for decades.

Linea_Norway

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #165 on: October 01, 2019, 01:45:13 PM »
For those of you who do believe that climate apocalypse is indeed coming (soon):

Today I read about Deep Adaptation. That is a movement of people who believe that the climate apocalypse cannot be avoided anymore and that we better prepare for what awaits us, collapse of society as we know it.
I found a local facebook group with similarly thinking people.

I haven't heard that. I mean, anything we do at this point will simply blunt or mitigate the change, we can't prevent it at this point. Most species on the planet will not be able to "adapt" to this quick of a climate change, especially as environments and ecosystems are being used or degraded by human activities at the same time.
So, both will need to be done. We will need to figure out and implement reducing c02 emissions long term. We will also need to adapt to the changes that climate change will bring. As both of these things will mean a restriction in energy, foodstuffs and resources, they are not contradictory impulses. I just wish the US could figure a way to wean ourselves off our car habit...  That sad, I don't want me and my kids just to "survive". Existing is not good enough goal but a way we can move to sustaining cultures and societies that are less stressful on this planet.

The group isn't just about surviving, it is also about altering society to prepare for the new future. The goal is to still have a form of society, rather then everyone surviving for themselves. But it also about living the simple life, with lots of recycling habits and grow your own veggies.

partgypsy

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #166 on: October 01, 2019, 03:15:09 PM »
For those of you who do believe that climate apocalypse is indeed coming (soon):

Today I read about Deep Adaptation. That is a movement of people who believe that the climate apocalypse cannot be avoided anymore and that we better prepare for what awaits us, collapse of society as we know it.
I found a local facebook group with similarly thinking people.

I haven't heard that. I mean, anything we do at this point will simply blunt or mitigate the change, we can't prevent it at this point. Most species on the planet will not be able to "adapt" to this quick of a climate change, especially as environments and ecosystems are being used or degraded by human activities at the same time.
So, both will need to be done. We will need to figure out and implement reducing c02 emissions long term. We will also need to adapt to the changes that climate change will bring. As both of these things will mean a restriction in energy, foodstuffs and resources, they are not contradictory impulses. I just wish the US could figure a way to wean ourselves off our car habit...  That sad, I don't want me and my kids just to "survive". Existing is not good enough goal but a way we can move to sustaining cultures and societies that are less stressful on this planet.

The group isn't just about surviving, it is also about altering society to prepare for the new future. The goal is to still have a form of society, rather then everyone surviving for themselves. But it also about living the simple life, with lots of recycling habits and grow your own veggies.

I know myself I feel very wasteful the way I live. In part because I work while having 2 kids, I simply do not prepare food the way I would prefer (less packaging). I also feel the way I live is wasteful, in that once the kids grow up and move out, it will just be me with a house. Most likely as nature abhors a vacumn my sister will move in, and I will gain another semi-dependent. Sometimes I feel I should be open to something more radical. For example if my lot was big enough I think I would be OK living in a tiny house in the back and renting my actual house : ) But my yard is not big enough. I also daydream about making an apartment in the attic, but it seems like it would be too expensive for the return (80K). 
« Last Edit: October 01, 2019, 03:34:24 PM by partgypsy »

scottish

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #167 on: October 01, 2019, 04:14:36 PM »
1.  In what way do you believe that climate reporting is sensationalist?  The research that I've read is all pretty clear that we have an immediate and rapidly worsening problem.  To date there has been no technological breakthrough or advancement capable of pulling us out of this situation, and very little political will to make the changes necessary to stop it without.

2.  I'm generally in favour of nuclear plants myself, but think it is a mistake to view them as a panacea for all the world's problems.  There are issues related to waste storage, accidents (although exceedingly rare), and long term fuel supply.

3.  This reads as pure fantasy fiction to me, but I'd like to give you a better chance to explain.  Exactly how many years do you believe we have to adjust before we start to see significant impacts from climate change?  In the past 30 years, what successes in reversing human caused climate change are you aware of?

1.  Here's a sensationalist article:
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-meaningful-climate-action-in-canada-is-doomed/
The subtitle is
Quote
Once, this country led the global conversation that helped save the ozone layer. Now, in a climate crisis, we canít even have an honest conversation among ourselves about what must be done to save us all

There are new ones every day.

The title of the article is sensational. The part you quoted is completely true ever since high ranking members of the Conservative party started denying that climate change is a real thing.  An honest conversation is difficult to have when one group has decided that it's politically expedient to tell people that they can be as wasteful as they want with no repercussions.



3.   Things are changing slowly.   Toronto is only 76m above sea level.   How long until downtown TO is flooded?   Low lying areas like New Orleans will have more immediate problems, but they are a small fraction of the total.    Two climate problems that have been addressed in the last 30 years are acid rain and ozone layer depletion.   

But those examples just prove my point.   Acid rain and ozone layer depletion were relatively small scope problems that could be addressed without a huge impact to our current economy.    More creative solutions than carbon taxes and other legislation are needed to deal with global climate change.

You didn't answer my questions.

The climate does change slowly.  But we've been observing these changes now for fifty years.  The ten warmest years on record have all occurred in the past 20 years.  That's a very fast change.  There are significant changes currently recorded in both the ocean and cryosphere (https://report.ipcc.ch/srocc/pdf/SROCC_FinalDraft_FullReport.pdf).  Many of these changes have been measured since the 60s, 70s, and 80s.  They have all worsened over that period of time.

So I have to ask you again . . . exactly how many more years do you believe we have to adjust?  Will you wait until Toronto is under water before you decide that it's time to do something?  Or until there's no more polar ice cap?  Or is there a threshold of extinction events that you're waiting for?  What will motivate you to believe that the problem we've been warned about and seen coming for decades is something worth addressing?

Our economy is largely to blame for the climate problems we're seeing.  It's not surprising that solutions impact the economy.  I've quite surprised that you're against carbon taxes . . . as that's one of the simplest way to encourage people and companies to behave properly - charge them some of the cost of the damage that they're doing.  You believe that more creative solutions are needed to deal with climate change?

OK.  Cool.  Let's hear them.

If you don't provide these solutions, but instead only try to tear down what people are currently working on . . .  you're just worsening the problem by perpetuating a status quo that has been failing for decades.

I'm not explaining my point of view very well.

I hear and read about people saying that climate change will doom us.   We've failed to fight climate change.  It's too late.   The end is nigh.  And so on.   

But I think we're far from doomed.   We're just starting to deal with climate change. 

As for the carbon tax, it's not that I'm against a carbon tax.   It's just way too small to have much effect.   I think if it were 10x what it is today, then it would have a meaningful impact, and I could get behind it.   In it's current incarnation it feels like a minor tax grab instead of meaningful climate action.

The actions people can take are to encourage climate friendly innovations.   Buy green electricity and electric cars.   Do things that reward companies for innovating in this space.   Don't elect politicians in favour of policies which will make climate change worse.   Hell, start a company to develop new energy storage technology.

It bugs me when people expect the government to do something, and then they complain about everything the government can do.   Carbon tax?   Green energy incentives?   It all takes money out of their pockets.   They want *someone else* to absorb the impact of fixing climate change.

When I read Scott Adams, bless his frozen little heart, I thought he was trying to make some of these points.    I rarely agree with him, so it caught me by surprise.


GuitarStv

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #168 on: October 01, 2019, 07:51:57 PM »
1.  In what way do you believe that climate reporting is sensationalist?  The research that I've read is all pretty clear that we have an immediate and rapidly worsening problem.  To date there has been no technological breakthrough or advancement capable of pulling us out of this situation, and very little political will to make the changes necessary to stop it without.

2.  I'm generally in favour of nuclear plants myself, but think it is a mistake to view them as a panacea for all the world's problems.  There are issues related to waste storage, accidents (although exceedingly rare), and long term fuel supply.

3.  This reads as pure fantasy fiction to me, but I'd like to give you a better chance to explain.  Exactly how many years do you believe we have to adjust before we start to see significant impacts from climate change?  In the past 30 years, what successes in reversing human caused climate change are you aware of?

1.  Here's a sensationalist article:
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-meaningful-climate-action-in-canada-is-doomed/
The subtitle is
Quote
Once, this country led the global conversation that helped save the ozone layer. Now, in a climate crisis, we canít even have an honest conversation among ourselves about what must be done to save us all

There are new ones every day.

The title of the article is sensational. The part you quoted is completely true ever since high ranking members of the Conservative party started denying that climate change is a real thing.  An honest conversation is difficult to have when one group has decided that it's politically expedient to tell people that they can be as wasteful as they want with no repercussions.



3.   Things are changing slowly.   Toronto is only 76m above sea level.   How long until downtown TO is flooded?   Low lying areas like New Orleans will have more immediate problems, but they are a small fraction of the total.    Two climate problems that have been addressed in the last 30 years are acid rain and ozone layer depletion.   

But those examples just prove my point.   Acid rain and ozone layer depletion were relatively small scope problems that could be addressed without a huge impact to our current economy.    More creative solutions than carbon taxes and other legislation are needed to deal with global climate change.

You didn't answer my questions.

The climate does change slowly.  But we've been observing these changes now for fifty years.  The ten warmest years on record have all occurred in the past 20 years.  That's a very fast change.  There are significant changes currently recorded in both the ocean and cryosphere (https://report.ipcc.ch/srocc/pdf/SROCC_FinalDraft_FullReport.pdf).  Many of these changes have been measured since the 60s, 70s, and 80s.  They have all worsened over that period of time.

So I have to ask you again . . . exactly how many more years do you believe we have to adjust?  Will you wait until Toronto is under water before you decide that it's time to do something?  Or until there's no more polar ice cap?  Or is there a threshold of extinction events that you're waiting for?  What will motivate you to believe that the problem we've been warned about and seen coming for decades is something worth addressing?

Our economy is largely to blame for the climate problems we're seeing.  It's not surprising that solutions impact the economy.  I've quite surprised that you're against carbon taxes . . . as that's one of the simplest way to encourage people and companies to behave properly - charge them some of the cost of the damage that they're doing.  You believe that more creative solutions are needed to deal with climate change?

OK.  Cool.  Let's hear them.

If you don't provide these solutions, but instead only try to tear down what people are currently working on . . .  you're just worsening the problem by perpetuating a status quo that has been failing for decades.

I'm not explaining my point of view very well.

I hear and read about people saying that climate change will doom us.   We've failed to fight climate change.  It's too late.   The end is nigh.  And so on.   

But I think we're far from doomed.   We're just starting to deal with climate change. 

I think that the main concern is that we haven't started to deal with climate change in any appreciable way so far.  That's concerning given the significant and evident changes already measured.

It's certainly possible that if immediate action were to take place we can avoid doom.  The problem is that nobody's doing that.  Which rationally tends to lead to a more bleak outlook.  If we continue to do the same thing that we've been doing (virtually nothing) all evidence indicates that we are doomed.  That's not an argument to give up . . . it's a spur to finally start doing something.



As for the carbon tax, it's not that I'm against a carbon tax.   It's just way too small to have much effect.   I think if it were 10x what it is today, then it would have a meaningful impact, and I could get behind it.   In it's current incarnation it feels like a minor tax grab instead of meaningful climate action.

Not sure where this argument is coming from.  The carbon tax as implemented in Ontario redistributes all tax money to the people of Ontario.  So, if you don't pollute as much you end up making money from it.  If you do pollute more, you pay more.  How is that a tax grab?



The actions people can take are to encourage climate friendly innovations.   Buy green electricity and electric cars.   Do things that reward companies for innovating in this space.

The free market approach to climate change (as with pretty much every other environmental disaster that the free market has created) has been proven to be an utter failure.  Our system is currently setup to reward companies for short term thinking.  It doesn't matter if your actions today will cause huge problems in 100 years . . . if your business is likely not going to exist in 100 years.  Get rich now - fuck the distant future.  It's this free market mindset that got us into this mess.

Buying more shit is not a way out of the problems we largely caused by buying too much shit we didn't need to being with.  Especially when for every electric car sold we sell ten pickup trucks to people who use them for commuting.



It bugs me when people expect the government to do something, and then they complain about everything the government can do.   Carbon tax?   Green energy incentives?   It all takes money out of their pockets.   They want *someone else* to absorb the impact of fixing climate change.

This is why it's important that we continue to make climate change real to people by highlighting the risks and dangers.  Nobody's going to voluntarily give up something they like unless they understand and believe that the threat is real.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #169 on: October 01, 2019, 09:05:59 PM »
https://www.marketplace.org/shows/marketplace-tech/buying-property-is-emotional-tech-can-help-people-understand-their-homes-climate-risk/

Quote
People who already own a property with some flood risk might pay for more information.

We bought a report from Coastal Risk Consulting ($49), to assess risk on that glass-walled vacation home on the riverbank in Maryland. Owner Brian Rankin read through it.

ďIím looking at the first page, and I know right away that this is my property,Ē Rankin said. ďYou can see our dock, which juts into the river.Ē

When he gets to the page on tidal flooding, it predicts his property will deal with it pretty much every day by the year 2034. So what is he going to do next? 

Linea_Norway

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #170 on: October 01, 2019, 10:33:40 PM »
For those of you who do believe that climate apocalypse is indeed coming (soon):

Today I read about Deep Adaptation. That is a movement of people who believe that the climate apocalypse cannot be avoided anymore and that we better prepare for what awaits us, collapse of society as we know it.
I found a local facebook group with similarly thinking people.

I haven't heard that. I mean, anything we do at this point will simply blunt or mitigate the change, we can't prevent it at this point. Most species on the planet will not be able to "adapt" to this quick of a climate change, especially as environments and ecosystems are being used or degraded by human activities at the same time.
So, both will need to be done. We will need to figure out and implement reducing c02 emissions long term. We will also need to adapt to the changes that climate change will bring. As both of these things will mean a restriction in energy, foodstuffs and resources, they are not contradictory impulses. I just wish the US could figure a way to wean ourselves off our car habit...  That sad, I don't want me and my kids just to "survive". Existing is not good enough goal but a way we can move to sustaining cultures and societies that are less stressful on this planet.

The group isn't just about surviving, it is also about altering society to prepare for the new future. The goal is to still have a form of society, rather then everyone surviving for themselves. But it also about living the simple life, with lots of recycling habits and grow your own veggies.

I know myself I feel very wasteful the way I live. In part because I work while having 2 kids, I simply do not prepare food the way I would prefer (less packaging). I also feel the way I live is wasteful, in that once the kids grow up and move out, it will just be me with a house. Most likely as nature abhors a vacumn my sister will move in, and I will gain another semi-dependent. Sometimes I feel I should be open to something more radical. For example if my lot was big enough I think I would be OK living in a tiny house in the back and renting my actual house : ) But my yard is not big enough. I also daydream about making an apartment in the attic, but it seems like it would be too expensive for the return (80K).

You probably have a garden? Then you could plant some useful plants in it (fruit trees and such).
And maybe you can switch a car to an electrical car?

partgypsy

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #171 on: October 02, 2019, 06:15:23 AM »
For those of you who do believe that climate apocalypse is indeed coming (soon):

Today I read about Deep Adaptation. That is a movement of people who believe that the climate apocalypse cannot be avoided anymore and that we better prepare for what awaits us, collapse of society as we know it.
I found a local facebook group with similarly thinking people.

I haven't heard that. I mean, anything we do at this point will simply blunt or mitigate the change, we can't prevent it at this point. Most species on the planet will not be able to "adapt" to this quick of a climate change, especially as environments and ecosystems are being used or degraded by human activities at the same time.
So, both will need to be done. We will need to figure out and implement reducing c02 emissions long term. We will also need to adapt to the changes that climate change will bring. As both of these things will mean a restriction in energy, foodstuffs and resources, they are not contradictory impulses. I just wish the US could figure a way to wean ourselves off our car habit...  That sad, I don't want me and my kids just to "survive". Existing is not good enough goal but a way we can move to sustaining cultures and societies that are less stressful on this planet.

The group isn't just about surviving, it is also about altering society to prepare for the new future. The goal is to still have a form of society, rather then everyone surviving for themselves. But it also about living the simple life, with lots of recycling habits and grow your own veggies.

I know myself I feel very wasteful the way I live. In part because I work while having 2 kids, I simply do not prepare food the way I would prefer (less packaging). I also feel the way I live is wasteful, in that once the kids grow up and move out, it will just be me with a house. Most likely as nature abhors a vacumn my sister will move in, and I will gain another semi-dependent. Sometimes I feel I should be open to something more radical. For example if my lot was big enough I think I would be OK living in a tiny house in the back and renting my actual house : ) But my yard is not big enough. I also daydream about making an apartment in the attic, but it seems like it would be too expensive for the return (80K).

You probably have a garden? Then you could plant some useful plants in it (fruit trees and such).
And maybe you can switch a car to an electrical car?

Those are all good ideas. I have a small, very shady lot. The most I can grow is a few herbs and maybe a couple tomato and pepper plants in strategically placed pots. I just bought my car in 2016, decent fuel efficient (hatchback) so I don't anticipate switching out cars anytime soon. However where I live is very walkable so I do not need to fill up my tank every month (walk to work at least a couple times a week). For my electric bill I pay extra so it is renewable electricity (wind). I've already cut down on the amount of meat I eat, but am considering cutting down further, and basically try to eat more vegetables and beans versus things that are overly processed and packaged (this will be hard but worth it).  Due to a lot of personal things going on in life the past few years, my kids have still not learned how to ride bikes. So I also want to correct that.

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #172 on: October 02, 2019, 10:00:07 AM »
The free market approach to climate change (as with pretty much every other environmental disaster that the free market has created) has been proven to be an utter failure.  Our system is currently setup to reward companies for short term thinking.  It doesn't matter if your actions today will cause huge problems in 100 years . . . if your business is likely not going to exist in 100 years.  Get rich now - fuck the distant future.  It's this free market mindset that got us into this mess.

Buying more shit is not a way out of the problems we largely caused by buying too much shit we didn't need to being with.  Especially when for every electric car sold we sell ten pickup trucks to people who use them for commuting.

Knowing what I do about human nature I am much more optimistic about capitalism mitigating the problem than I am about the possibility of a global spiritual awakening where billions voluntarily abandon (often very recently acquired) comforts and conveniences for some nebulous greater good. Humans are even more short sighted than markets are, in general.
« Last Edit: October 02, 2019, 10:02:17 AM by Samuel »

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #173 on: October 02, 2019, 11:47:39 AM »
Knowing what I do about human nature I am much more optimistic about capitalism mitigating the problem than I am about the possibility of a global spiritual awakening where billions voluntarily abandon (often very recently acquired) comforts and conveniences for some nebulous greater good. Humans are even more short sighted than markets are, in general.

I would personally put my money on something like a steady decline in standard of living building up to a giant French Revolution.  It doesn't take a whole lot of discomfort for the masses to decide following the rule of law and being a good member of the system isn't working.  Capitalism, as GuitarStv pointed out, is at the very root of the problem and will cease to exist as a result of catastrophic climate change.  It's not like credit cards and stock exchanges occur anywhere else in nature. 

Boofinator

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #174 on: October 02, 2019, 12:13:32 PM »
Capitalism, as GuitarStv pointed out, is at the very root of the problem and will cease to exist as a result of catastrophic climate change.

Where exactly have you seen this work out to positive effect?

Capitalism isn't the problem; rather, unregulated capitalism is the problem. It will take time, but at some point the moral compass of the nation will decide that the current capitalistic solution (unregulated carbon emissions) needs to take a backseat to a regulated model (similar to how unregulated labor exploitation has been regulated, loosely starting with the elimination of slavery and continuing through the plethora of labor laws we have today).

GuitarStv

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #175 on: October 02, 2019, 02:19:10 PM »
It will take time, but at some point the moral compass of the nation will decide that the current capitalistic solution (unregulated carbon emissions) needs to take a backseat to a regulated model (similar to how unregulated labor exploitation has been regulated, loosely starting with the elimination of slavery and continuing through the plethora of labor laws we have today).

The issue is that climate change is a big, relatively slow moving problem.  We've been ignoring it for more than 40 years as it has steadily worsened.  If we continue to wait, we may find ourselves in a position where we are beyond a solution.  At least a palatable solution.

RetiredAt63

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #176 on: October 02, 2019, 02:44:15 PM »
And to get the environmental equivalent of labour laws, what is needed? Are environmental issues up front and center and #1 priority for elections? Canada votes this month.  If the Conservatives do well we will have just said NO to environmental issues.

Boofinator

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #177 on: October 02, 2019, 03:35:40 PM »
It will take time, but at some point the moral compass of the nation will decide that the current capitalistic solution (unregulated carbon emissions) needs to take a backseat to a regulated model (similar to how unregulated labor exploitation has been regulated, loosely starting with the elimination of slavery and continuing through the plethora of labor laws we have today).

The issue is that climate change is a big, relatively slow moving problem.  We've been ignoring it for more than 40 years as it has steadily worsened.  If we continue to wait, we may find ourselves in a position where we are beyond a solution.  At least a palatable solution.

I don't disagree. But I believe change is coming, as the inculcated young replace the old, and that the winds of politics can change directions quickly given the appropriate demographic changes.

The more difficult challenge will be to convince individual people that they can be happy with less driving and less artificial climate control. I think the only solution is to amend the U.S. Constitution and vote in MMM for president.

pecunia

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #178 on: October 02, 2019, 05:23:49 PM »
How long will it be before that Antarctic real estate is available?

Montecarlo

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #179 on: October 02, 2019, 06:35:22 PM »
The free market approach to climate change (as with pretty much every other environmental disaster that the free market has created) has been proven to be an utter failure.  Our system is currently setup to reward companies for short term thinking.  It doesn't matter if your actions today will cause huge problems in 100 years . . . if your business is likely not going to exist in 100 years.  Get rich now - fuck the distant future.  It's this free market mindset that got us into this mess.

Buying more shit is not a way out of the problems we largely caused by buying too much shit we didn't need to being with.  Especially when for every electric car sold we sell ten pickup trucks to people who use them for commuting.

Knowing what I do about human nature I am much more optimistic about capitalism mitigating the problem than I am about the possibility of a global spiritual awakening where billions voluntarily abandon (often very recently acquired) comforts and conveniences for some nebulous greater good. Humans are even more short sighted than markets are, in general.

I personally one of these two things is true:

1: It's all really overblown and there is no climate crisis
2: Billions of people will starve to death, the global economy will collapse, and then, finally, emissions will decrease.

I'm not much for middle grounds on anything.

partgypsy

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #180 on: October 03, 2019, 06:59:53 AM »
The free market approach to climate change (as with pretty much every other environmental disaster that the free market has created) has been proven to be an utter failure.  Our system is currently setup to reward companies for short term thinking.  It doesn't matter if your actions today will cause huge problems in 100 years . . . if your business is likely not going to exist in 100 years.  Get rich now - fuck the distant future.  It's this free market mindset that got us into this mess.

Buying more shit is not a way out of the problems we largely caused by buying too much shit we didn't need to being with.  Especially when for every electric car sold we sell ten pickup trucks to people who use them for commuting.

Knowing what I do about human nature I am much more optimistic about capitalism mitigating the problem than I am about the possibility of a global spiritual awakening where billions voluntarily abandon (often very recently acquired) comforts and conveniences for some nebulous greater good. Humans are even more short sighted than markets are, in general.

I personally one of these two things is true:

1: It's all really overblown and there is no climate crisis
2: Billions of people will starve to death, the global economy will collapse, and then, finally, emissions will decrease.

I'm not much for middle grounds on anything.
why not the pleasant middle ground of thousands to millions of people will have earlier deaths but in places most Americans don't go so we won't care so much, at home possibly food and other item shortages due to breakdown of production chains, overall decreased quality of life (think Russia during collapse, frog in boiling water situation). The people who will have it worse, will have no power to do anything about it (remember the Africa famines in the 80's?) while people in other countries will have privations but as long as other people have it worse there will be bitching and moaning but no overt rioting. People will get really good at tuning out the mass suffering of others, whether it is hearing about what is going on in other countries or reading about population or mass die offs of other species. I think that is a more likely scenario.
« Last Edit: October 03, 2019, 07:05:43 AM by partgypsy »

Wrenchturner

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #181 on: October 03, 2019, 07:12:24 AM »
Global warming is a classic prisoner's dilemma.  As was already pointed out, most people are trying to improve their lot, and the wealthy that indulge ideas of reforming that process are thinking too wishfully, I suspect.


Boofinator

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #182 on: October 03, 2019, 07:23:48 AM »
Global warming is a classic prisoner's dilemma.  As was already pointed out, most people are trying to improve their lot, and the wealthy that indulge ideas of reforming that process are thinking too wishfully, I suspect.

You are absolutely right. The key is to try to change minds to the extent that someone can believe that they can still improve their lot while polluting a much smaller fraction of carbon. Part of this perceived improvement will have to be an acceptance of the fact that global warming is real, and our children will suffer measurable pain in the future if we don't get our act together.

GuitarStv

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #183 on: October 03, 2019, 07:30:53 AM »
I simply don't have much hope for that ever occurring though . . . given that we are largely a capitalist society and there is a huge amount of money to be made lying to people about climate change not being real.  It's hard to convince someone to believe the truth when a more convenient lie makes their life easier in the short term.

former player

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #184 on: October 03, 2019, 07:42:59 AM »
I simply don't have much hope for that ever occurring though . . . given that we are largely a capitalist society and there is a huge amount of money to be made lying to people about climate change not being real.  It's hard to convince someone to believe the truth when a more convenient lie makes their life easier in the short term.
I don't think capitalism as a financial/economic system is the issue, though.  It's fundamental human nature that's the problem, and capitalism just the symptom that has allowed human nature to create the current climate crisis.

I suppose you could say that socialism, perhaps as currently practised in Cuba, Venezuela and North Korea is some sort of solution? Socialism as practised eg in the Nordic countries doesn't seem to be an answer as yet.

Linea_Norway

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #185 on: October 03, 2019, 07:45:06 AM »

I personally one of these two things is true:

1: It's all really overblown and there is no climate crisis
2: Billions of people will starve to death, the global economy will collapse, and then, finally, emissions will decrease.

I'm not much for middle grounds on anything.

Well, according to the scientists, it is not overblown at all and there is a crisis. You already see in the news that the north pole is melting more and more each year, the south pole has many water pools this year, gletsjers on Greenland and elsewhere are melting, coral reefs are dying. Lots and lots of species are red-listed and dying out.

So your option 1 is not the case.
I am personally afraid that option 2 will happen, but I hope the world will come to it's senses and try to avoid the worst part of the collaps. Stop or delay the warming up and maintain a form of civilization as long as possible. Adapt to the coming changes in a civilized way.

Wrenchturner

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #186 on: October 03, 2019, 08:17:41 AM »
I simply don't have much hope for that ever occurring though . . . given that we are largely a capitalist society and there is a huge amount of money to be made lying to people about climate change not being real.  It's hard to convince someone to believe the truth when a more convenient lie makes their life easier in the short term.
I don't think capitalism as a financial/economic system is the issue, though.  It's fundamental human nature that's the problem, and capitalism just the symptom that has allowed human nature to create the current climate crisis.

I suppose you could say that socialism, perhaps as currently practised in Cuba, Venezuela and North Korea is some sort of solution? Socialism as practised eg in the Nordic countries doesn't seem to be an answer as yet.
It's also hard to know how much wealth is needed for an individual or family.  It's a matter of diminishing returns, so there's no hard line, but you can definitely see at the extreme top end there are people competing for the most properties, or the highest net worth, or the greatest income.  At some point, the competition that drives innovation under capitalism rolls over into a numbers game pissing contest that operates at others' expense.  Not sure how to resolve that either, since it is human nature as you say.

Perhaps we can begin finding our worth in better indicators than material wealth.

Kris

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #187 on: October 03, 2019, 09:25:43 AM »
I simply don't have much hope for that ever occurring though . . . given that we are largely a capitalist society and there is a huge amount of money to be made lying to people about climate change not being real.  It's hard to convince someone to believe the truth when a more convenient lie makes their life easier in the short term.
I don't think capitalism as a financial/economic system is the issue, though.  It's fundamental human nature that's the problem, and capitalism just the symptom that has allowed human nature to create the current climate crisis.

I suppose you could say that socialism, perhaps as currently practised in Cuba, Venezuela and North Korea is some sort of solution? Socialism as practised eg in the Nordic countries doesn't seem to be an answer as yet.
It's also hard to know how much wealth is needed for an individual or family.  It's a matter of diminishing returns, so there's no hard line, but you can definitely see at the extreme top end there are people competing for the most properties, or the highest net worth, or the greatest income.  At some point, the competition that drives innovation under capitalism rolls over into a numbers game pissing contest that operates at others' expense.  Not sure how to resolve that either, since it is human nature as you say.

Perhaps we can begin finding our worth in better indicators than material wealth.

In the US, that's a pretty hard sell. Our brand of capitalism has spent generations teaching us that purchasing power = freedom = worth.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #188 on: October 03, 2019, 09:32:51 AM »
Capitalism, as GuitarStv pointed out, is at the very root of the problem and will cease to exist as a result of catastrophic climate change.

Where exactly have you seen this work out to positive effect?

Capitalism isn't the problem; rather, unregulated capitalism is the problem. It will take time, but at some point the moral compass of the nation will decide that the current capitalistic solution (unregulated carbon emissions) needs to take a backseat to a regulated model (similar to how unregulated labor exploitation has been regulated, loosely starting with the elimination of slavery and continuing through the plethora of labor laws we have today).

As soon as you say 'unregulated "XX" is the problem', you admit that "XX" is deeply flawed.  Taking the example of labor laws used to 'contain' unfettered capitalism, we are still fighting over how much power unions should have.  Capitalism is better than socialism at incentivizing people to be productive, but it directs those efforts toward maximizing profit and avoiding unproductive activity.  It also encourages 'winner takes all' behavior.  These are all counter to reducing CO2 emissions or solving climate change.

Politicians are being pretty smart with calling this "the Green New Deal".  Similar to the popular provisions of the New Deal, they are changing the system further away from capitalism to some new version of a capitalist-socialist system.  I just hope the necessarily radical shift toward socialism doesn't bog down in the details and leave us doing nothing or too little.

BicycleB

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #189 on: October 03, 2019, 09:52:31 AM »
^Very thoughtful take!

I remain curious to see whether the Green New Deal style shift will take root. Part of me wants to see it happen, but is doubtful.

Meanwhile, the whole carbon tax-and-dividend thing incentivizes virtually all actors to conserve carbon, without requiring any other substantial changes in society.

I'll accept whichever one people will agree to...

Wrenchturner

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #190 on: October 03, 2019, 09:59:10 AM »
I simply don't have much hope for that ever occurring though . . . given that we are largely a capitalist society and there is a huge amount of money to be made lying to people about climate change not being real.  It's hard to convince someone to believe the truth when a more convenient lie makes their life easier in the short term.
I don't think capitalism as a financial/economic system is the issue, though.  It's fundamental human nature that's the problem, and capitalism just the symptom that has allowed human nature to create the current climate crisis.

I suppose you could say that socialism, perhaps as currently practised in Cuba, Venezuela and North Korea is some sort of solution? Socialism as practised eg in the Nordic countries doesn't seem to be an answer as yet.
It's also hard to know how much wealth is needed for an individual or family.  It's a matter of diminishing returns, so there's no hard line, but you can definitely see at the extreme top end there are people competing for the most properties, or the highest net worth, or the greatest income.  At some point, the competition that drives innovation under capitalism rolls over into a numbers game pissing contest that operates at others' expense.  Not sure how to resolve that either, since it is human nature as you say.

Perhaps we can begin finding our worth in better indicators than material wealth.

In the US, that's a pretty hard sell. Our brand of capitalism has spent generations teaching us that purchasing power = freedom = worth.
It's true up to a point, around 50k per year or so is where increases in happiness start to stall out.  But you can even see it on this forum.  Some people like to have nannies and housekeepers.  Is that good for the environment?  How about working your ass off for ten years so you can retire off the back of The Machine?
I like to travel.  How much of the carbon burned on a flight is redeemed by learning about new cultures and ideally applying them to my own life?  Probably not enough.

Very difficult to draw hard lines around this stuff.

Boofinator

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #191 on: October 03, 2019, 10:12:32 AM »
I simply don't have much hope for that ever occurring though . . . given that we are largely a capitalist society and there is a huge amount of money to be made lying to people about climate change not being real.  It's hard to convince someone to believe the truth when a more convenient lie makes their life easier in the short term.

Money isn't the end goal, though in a capitalistic society it might appear to be that way because of what it helps attain: power. You can look at all of the socialist schemes that have been developed, and many of them suffered from similar if not worse symptoms than capitalistic societies owing to an abuse of power. And those in power have an incentive to lie, regardless of the economic system in place.

Excellent comment by formerplayer. In Venezuela, until recently, you could fill up a truck's gas tank for less than a dollar. Putting climate change aside, do you think this was a good policy for the citizens of Venezuela? Or would a better policy allow for selling that oil at market prices, including within the country? Or some middle ground between the two? https://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/20/world/americas/price-of-gas-skyrockets-in-venezuela-to-38-cents-a-gallon.html

GuitarStv

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #192 on: October 03, 2019, 10:43:20 AM »
I simply don't have much hope for that ever occurring though . . . given that we are largely a capitalist society and there is a huge amount of money to be made lying to people about climate change not being real.  It's hard to convince someone to believe the truth when a more convenient lie makes their life easier in the short term.

Money isn't the end goal, though in a capitalistic society it might appear to be that way because of what it helps attain: power. You can look at all of the socialist schemes that have been developed, and many of them suffered from similar if not worse symptoms than capitalistic societies owing to an abuse of power. And those in power have an incentive to lie, regardless of the economic system in place.

Excellent comment by formerplayer. In Venezuela, until recently, you could fill up a truck's gas tank for less than a dollar. Putting climate change aside, do you think this was a good policy for the citizens of Venezuela? Or would a better policy allow for selling that oil at market prices, including within the country? Or some middle ground between the two? https://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/20/world/americas/price-of-gas-skyrockets-in-venezuela-to-38-cents-a-gallon.html

Fuel use is one of the most heavily subsidized industries in the world . . . to the tune of 4.7 trillion dollars a year globally (https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2019/05/02/Global-Fossil-Fuel-Subsidies-Remain-Large-An-Update-Based-on-Country-Level-Estimates-46509).  Virtually every developed nation subsidizes fuel costs.  Including the US.

Subsidizing fuel costs is evidence of our shortsightedness . . . but I'd argue that market prices are also far too low.  The market doesn't take into account the massive costs we'll shoulder tomorrow by using the fuel today.  At least, it doesn't unless there's regulation to enforce that.

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #193 on: October 03, 2019, 10:47:02 AM »
Subsidizing fuel costs is evidence of our shortsightedness . . . but I'd argue that market prices are also far too low.  The market doesn't take into account the massive costs we'll shoulder tomorrow by using the fuel today.  At least, it doesn't unless there's regulation to enforce that.

Agreed. Subsidizing fossil fuel costs might have made sense at some point in the past, but it's long past time to reverse that script.

Just Joe

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #194 on: October 03, 2019, 03:12:25 PM »
Ain't it interesting that sometimes the same folks who rail against green tech subsidies choose to ignore fossil fuel subsidies?

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #195 on: October 03, 2019, 04:52:52 PM »
It seems some people think that scientists and public servants are pure, well intentioned people who would never be subject to hyperbole or group think, and that there isnít some correlation between their priors and their career choices.

Some people are free market fundamentalists who believe the markets are the best way to make decisions, and everything else is a substandard Stalinist dystopia.

I think everyone is biased, some peeps are assholes, and I donít trust anyone.

All to say Iím both a climate change skeptic and also a climate change prepper.

Montecarlo

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #196 on: October 03, 2019, 04:56:14 PM »
To support my point with an anecdote...

I have a colleague who used to work for a Canadian oil company and said that most of the people there were indoctrinated to believe that since oil is naturally occurring, itís renewable.

But of course, meteorologists, climate scientists, and Berkeley womenís studies majors would never have absurd beliefs en masse.

RetiredAt63

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #197 on: October 03, 2019, 05:01:35 PM »
To support my point with an anecdote...

I have a colleague who used to work for a Canadian oil company and said that most of the people there were indoctrinated to believe that since oil is naturally occurring, itís renewable.

But of course, meteorologists, climate scientists, and Berkeley womenís studies majors would never have absurd beliefs en masse.

Well, under the proper geological circumstances, it is renewable - but since our climate is not the proper circumstances, and even if it were we would be looking at much too long a time scale for it to be of use to us, for all intents and purposes it is a non-renewable resource.

LonerMatt

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #198 on: October 03, 2019, 05:46:05 PM »
Gotta rag on those feminists.................

:/

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Re: "The climate apocalypse is coming ... "
« Reply #199 on: October 03, 2019, 07:59:54 PM »
1.  In what way do you believe that climate reporting is sensationalist?  The research that I've read is all pretty clear that we have an immediate and rapidly worsening problem.  To date there has been no technological breakthrough or advancement capable of pulling us out of this situation, and very little political will to make the changes necessary to stop it without.

2.  I'm generally in favour of nuclear plants myself, but think it is a mistake to view them as a panacea for all the world's problems.  There are issues related to waste storage, accidents (although exceedingly rare), and long term fuel supply.

3.  This reads as pure fantasy fiction to me, but I'd like to give you a better chance to explain.  Exactly how many years do you believe we have to adjust before we start to see significant impacts from climate change?  In the past 30 years, what successes in reversing human caused climate change are you aware of?

1.  Here's a sensationalist article:
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-meaningful-climate-action-in-canada-is-doomed/
The subtitle is
Quote
Once, this country led the global conversation that helped save the ozone layer. Now, in a climate crisis, we canít even have an honest conversation among ourselves about what must be done to save us all

There are new ones every day.

The title of the article is sensational. The part you quoted is completely true ever since high ranking members of the Conservative party started denying that climate change is a real thing.  An honest conversation is difficult to have when one group has decided that it's politically expedient to tell people that they can be as wasteful as they want with no repercussions.



3.   Things are changing slowly.   Toronto is only 76m above sea level.   How long until downtown TO is flooded?   Low lying areas like New Orleans will have more immediate problems, but they are a small fraction of the total.    Two climate problems that have been addressed in the last 30 years are acid rain and ozone layer depletion.   

But those examples just prove my point.   Acid rain and ozone layer depletion were relatively small scope problems that could be addressed without a huge impact to our current economy.    More creative solutions than carbon taxes and other legislation are needed to deal with global climate change.

You didn't answer my questions.

The climate does change slowly.  But we've been observing these changes now for fifty years.  The ten warmest years on record have all occurred in the past 20 years.  That's a very fast change.  There are significant changes currently recorded in both the ocean and cryosphere (https://report.ipcc.ch/srocc/pdf/SROCC_FinalDraft_FullReport.pdf).  Many of these changes have been measured since the 60s, 70s, and 80s.  They have all worsened over that period of time.

So I have to ask you again . . . exactly how many more years do you believe we have to adjust?  Will you wait until Toronto is under water before you decide that it's time to do something?  Or until there's no more polar ice cap?  Or is there a threshold of extinction events that you're waiting for?  What will motivate you to believe that the problem we've been warned about and seen coming for decades is something worth addressing?

Our economy is largely to blame for the climate problems we're seeing.  It's not surprising that solutions impact the economy.  I've quite surprised that you're against carbon taxes . . . as that's one of the simplest way to encourage people and companies to behave properly - charge them some of the cost of the damage that they're doing.  You believe that more creative solutions are needed to deal with climate change?

OK.  Cool.  Let's hear them.

If you don't provide these solutions, but instead only try to tear down what people are currently working on . . .  you're just worsening the problem by perpetuating a status quo that has been failing for decades.

I'm not explaining my point of view very well.

I hear and read about people saying that climate change will doom us.   We've failed to fight climate change.  It's too late.   The end is nigh.  And so on.   

But I think we're far from doomed.   We're just starting to deal with climate change. 

I think that the main concern is that we haven't started to deal with climate change in any appreciable way so far.  That's concerning given the significant and evident changes already measured.

It's certainly possible that if immediate action were to take place we can avoid doom.  The problem is that nobody's doing that.  Which rationally tends to lead to a more bleak outlook.  If we continue to do the same thing that we've been doing (virtually nothing) all evidence indicates that we are doomed.  That's not an argument to give up . . . it's a spur to finally start doing something.



As for the carbon tax, it's not that I'm against a carbon tax.   It's just way too small to have much effect.   I think if it were 10x what it is today, then it would have a meaningful impact, and I could get behind it.   In it's current incarnation it feels like a minor tax grab instead of meaningful climate action.

Not sure where this argument is coming from.  The carbon tax as implemented in Ontario redistributes all tax money to the people of Ontario.  So, if you don't pollute as much you end up making money from it.  If you do pollute more, you pay more.  How is that a tax grab?



The actions people can take are to encourage climate friendly innovations.   Buy green electricity and electric cars.   Do things that reward companies for innovating in this space.

The free market approach to climate change (as with pretty much every other environmental disaster that the free market has created) has been proven to be an utter failure.  Our system is currently setup to reward companies for short term thinking.  It doesn't matter if your actions today will cause huge problems in 100 years . . . if your business is likely not going to exist in 100 years.  Get rich now - fuck the distant future.  It's this free market mindset that got us into this mess.

Buying more shit is not a way out of the problems we largely caused by buying too much shit we didn't need to being with.  Especially when for every electric car sold we sell ten pickup trucks to people who use them for commuting.



It bugs me when people expect the government to do something, and then they complain about everything the government can do.   Carbon tax?   Green energy incentives?   It all takes money out of their pockets.   They want *someone else* to absorb the impact of fixing climate change.

This is why it's important that we continue to make climate change real to people by highlighting the risks and dangers.  Nobody's going to voluntarily give up something they like unless they understand and believe that the threat is real.

I think we're just going to disagree on some stuff.    I see why you get so passionate when people downplay climate change though - it sends the wrong message.