Author Topic: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang  (Read 35906 times)

LennStar

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #50 on: March 20, 2019, 12:47:52 PM »
Your job provides, on average, more value than the jobs of people who make less than you (unless your job involves graft).

Can you show us the numbers for this?

Because the only studies I know that were done on wage <-> contribution to society showed the exact opposite.

The more your work does for society, the less you are paid. (On average of course). Just compare primary school teachers (more important than secondary and third education, but paid less than those) with investment bankers (who create nothing, effectivly only destroying resources).

The reason, the guess goes, may be that people already get "paid in respect" and should not expect to get paid in money.

ender

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #51 on: March 20, 2019, 12:59:53 PM »
But once you reach adult age, very few members of society are interested in shouldering people who provide no value in return. And it has little to do with being smart or privileged (ask all of the illegal immigrants begging to get in to the United States).


The correlation here is much stronger than you would likely want to admit.

Boofinator

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #52 on: March 20, 2019, 03:01:55 PM »
Your job provides, on average, more value than the jobs of people who make less than you (unless your job involves graft).

Can you show us the numbers for this?

Because the only studies I know that were done on wage <-> contribution to society showed the exact opposite.

The more your work does for society, the less you are paid. (On average of course). Just compare primary school teachers (more important than secondary and third education, but paid less than those) with investment bankers (who create nothing, effectivly only destroying resources).

The reason, the guess goes, may be that people already get "paid in respect" and should not expect to get paid in money.

Fair enough. But since my explanation is in line with economic fundamentals, and yours is not, I would think it more appropriate for you to show us the data.

Metalcat

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #53 on: March 20, 2019, 03:04:18 PM »
*For more on this, here is an excellent essay by Paul Graham here (mixed in with his regular pitch for people to launch startups): http://paulgraham.com/wealth.html

Only about a third of the way through, but love the informal introduction of basic economics.

*For more on this, here is an excellent essay by Paul Graham here (mixed in with his regular pitch for people to launch startups): http://paulgraham.com/wealth.html
I work as a software engineer making way more money than a lot of people who work way harder than me. How is that remotely useful for society?

If the answer isn't self-evident, didn't you read the article that you quoted by Paul Graham? Your job provides, on average, more value than the jobs of people who make less than you (unless your job involves graft). So even though you might not feel you are providing value to society, a lot of other people feel otherwise.

I will agree there are a lot of jobs in the world that provide a net negative value yet still pay well (these are subjective and your opinions may differ). Poppy grower. Porn star. Contract killer. Etc. This is where we as individuals need to make the right choices and encourage government to set basic rules that make these activities at least somewhat illegal.


Yeaahhhh...


Loved this whole comment. My one exception* to your statement is that I don't think we have opposite views at all, though perhaps some of our conclusions differ. FIRE is all about getting away from the bullshit jobs to do the things we love. For some people, those things bring absolutely zero value to society at large, and for others, they provide a tremendous amount of value (MMM, to use an example). But if, on net, your value to society is at least even over your lifetime, you can rest assured that you have not just sucked air your entire life.

Your comment seems to imply that if we give people the opportunity to do the things they love from the start (by providing UBI), then society will be better off. I disagree. For people with a passion, I'd argue UBI is a canard; most of these people already do what they love (hence the term starving artist). For those artists that provide value to society, they will be able to support their passions without ever getting one of those dreaded soul-sucking jobs (though I think those same jobs you find soul-sucking, others might actually derive pleasure from). For everyone else without a passion, those who would be comfortable doing whatever they please all day, I'd be willing to bet the majority of them would not find productive outlets for their energies.

*Well, maybe two. My 1991 dictionary says "ping" has standard usage as a verb, so even though it might have been coopted from the noun at some point, it's not like these people are committing lexicographical heresy.

First, the "ping" comment was a joke referencing the thread about petty reasons to FIRE.

As for people following their passions...well...no, I firmly disagree with you there.
People don't often follow their passions because common fucking sense encourages people NOT to.

I work in a classic industry that parents want their kids to get into. In fact, it's a rare day that I meet someone's kid and the parents aren't all "oh, don't you want to grow up to by an XYZ just like Malkynn?!"

Passion is heavily beaten and shamed out of many many people, as I said above, just look at how many posts here have absolutely shit on degrees that aren't "useful". I remember when I started university in Psychology, a male family friend said "I believe they call that 'getting a degree in finding a husband'" as it was unfathomable that I would do anything of use in my life with a psych degree.
In order to be a "starving artist" you have to be willing to accept the consequences. There are plenty of great artists out there who simply aren't willing to take those risks and decide to be accountants instead.

I also posit that it's incredibly difficult to even know your passions sometimes. Sure, some people absolutely know that they love painting, but a lot of passions aren't even anything that you are exposed to while young. It can take a lot of experience, trial and error to learn ones own passions.

I mean, how many people here have pondered what on earth they're going to do after FIRE?
Often it's virtually impossible to know what you are capable of until you are in a position to find out.

I'm not about to say that UBI would make some sort of utopian paradise where everyone is happy and fulfilled, but I do think it would be better than the fucked up and expensive systems we have now, and it just might improve progress and innovation, and would DEFINITELY promote more creative endeavours.

You don't have to agree with me, but based on my personal experiences with exactly this phenomenon, I firmly believe that providing a certain degree of guaranteed safety margin would open up A LOT of doors for people to work in ways that the risk of poverty would otherwise suppress. 

Boofinator

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #54 on: March 20, 2019, 03:20:34 PM »
First, the "ping" comment was a joke referencing the thread about petty reasons to FIRE.

As for people following their passions...well...no, I firmly disagree with you there.
People don't often follow their passions because common fucking sense encourages people NOT to.

I work in a classic industry that parents want their kids to get into. In fact, it's a rare day that I meet someone's kid and the parents aren't all "oh, don't you want to grow up to by an XYZ just like Malkynn?!"

Passion is heavily beaten and shamed out of many many people, as I said above, just look at how many posts here have absolutely shit on degrees that aren't "useful". I remember when I started university in Psychology, a male family friend said "I believe they call that 'getting a degree in finding a husband'" as it was unfathomable that I would do anything of use in my life with a psych degree.
In order to be a "starving artist" you have to be willing to accept the consequences. There are plenty of great artists out there who simply aren't willing to take those risks and decide to be accountants instead.

I also posit that it's incredibly difficult to even know your passions sometimes. Sure, some people absolutely know that they love painting, but a lot of passions aren't even anything that you are exposed to while young. It can take a lot of experience, trial and error to learn ones own passions.

I mean, how many people here have pondered what on earth they're going to do after FIRE?
Often it's virtually impossible to know what you are capable of until you are in a position to find out.

I'm not about to say that UBI would make some sort of utopian paradise where everyone is happy and fulfilled, but I do think it would be better than the fucked up and expensive systems we have now, and it just might improve progress and innovation, and would DEFINITELY promote more creative endeavours.

You don't have to agree with me, but based on my personal experiences with exactly this phenomenon, I firmly believe that providing a certain degree of guaranteed safety margin would open up A LOT of doors for people to work in ways that the risk of poverty would otherwise suppress.

Yes, I've been enjoying the petty thread, and have contemplated chiming in with a Tom Petty-themed quote myself, but couldn't beat "back down - compound". That said, I still don't quite understand the dislike of "ping", but perhaps only because I like submarines.

As I said, I think we're mostly in the same boat except with regards to our conclusions. I know a number of people whose "passions" are playing video games or drinking alcohol. Nothing inherently wrong with either of these activities (unless one combines the latter with driving), but I have no desire in subsidizing any part of their lifestyle. Just like I don't expect anybody else to fund my passions. That's in fact one of the great things about FIRE: you have funded your own passions in perpetuity by working hard, providing others with value, and not taking that value back right away like the typical consumer sukka but storing it to make life more meaningful.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #55 on: March 20, 2019, 03:39:54 PM »
At the end of the day, I don't want my taxes to pay for a UBI. I don't believe that everyone ought to be spoon-fed a living wage.

Metalcat

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #56 on: March 20, 2019, 03:42:05 PM »
At the end of the day, I don't want my taxes to pay for a UBI. I don't believe that everyone ought to be spoon-fed a living wage.

Even if it cost you less in taxes??? Wow...that's commitment.

I mean, part of the whole benefit of UBI is that it's supposed to cost *less* in taxes...

Bloop Bloop

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #57 on: March 20, 2019, 04:15:13 PM »
At the end of the day, I don't want my taxes to pay for a UBI. I don't believe that everyone ought to be spoon-fed a living wage.

Even if it cost you less in taxes??? Wow...that's commitment.

I mean, part of the whole benefit of UBI is that it's supposed to cost *less* in taxes...

I'm almost entirely sure it wouldn't cost me less in taxes. Most proponents of a UBI say that it's meant to be a living wage. Currently, not everyone gets a living wage through welfare. Ergo, there has to be some sort of tax increase.

Metalcat

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #58 on: March 20, 2019, 04:30:27 PM »
At the end of the day, I don't want my taxes to pay for a UBI. I don't believe that everyone ought to be spoon-fed a living wage.

Even if it cost you less in taxes??? Wow...that's commitment.

I mean, part of the whole benefit of UBI is that it's supposed to cost *less* in taxes...

I'm almost entirely sure it wouldn't cost me less in taxes. Most proponents of a UBI say that it's meant to be a living wage. Currently, not everyone gets a living wage through welfare. Ergo, there has to be some sort of tax increase.

Except that welfare programs cost an astronomical amount to run.

Really, a huge point of UBI is to theoretically *reduce* the tax burden. Like, it's the main selling point, it's the main reason we were looking into it here in Ontario.

ETA: sorry, my mistake, I am talking about guaranteed minimum income, not UBI when I talk about lowering tax burden.
« Last Edit: March 20, 2019, 04:40:32 PM by Malkynn »

PDXTabs

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #59 on: March 20, 2019, 04:32:45 PM »
I'm almost entirely sure it wouldn't cost me less in taxes. Most proponents of a UBI say that it's meant to be a living wage. Currently, not everyone gets a living wage through welfare. Ergo, there has to be some sort of tax increase.

It's true that we will need more tax revenue to fund a UBI. It's also true that if we use the UBI as a new economic model after many jobs are automated out of existence that we will need to be taxing the firms that automated all the jobs. Obviously, that's a big political problem as today corporations pit different countries against each other to see which will offer the lowest tax rate.

However, fundamentally the idea is sound. Specifically, the world isn't making less stuff this year than last. We still (as a whole) have the same productive capacity. If we get rid of a bunch of jobs due to automation, we just need an economic model that allows for the distribution of those goods. I wish more main stream economists and politicians were talking about what it will take to get the supply and demand in sync.

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #60 on: March 20, 2019, 04:45:16 PM »
I am enjoying the thread. But it should be noted that UBI is not Andrew Yang'[s biggest issue.  He is mainly worried that too many people are getting circumcised. (Look it up)
As a matter of fact , I heard that  he is going to combine the issues and only give $1000 a month to uncircumcised men!

Boofinator

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #61 on: March 20, 2019, 08:48:54 PM »
I'm almost entirely sure it wouldn't cost me less in taxes. Most proponents of a UBI say that it's meant to be a living wage. Currently, not everyone gets a living wage through welfare. Ergo, there has to be some sort of tax increase.

It's true that we will need more tax revenue to fund a UBI. It's also true that if we use the UBI as a new economic model after many jobs are automated out of existence that we will need to be taxing the firms that automated all the jobs. Obviously, that's a big political problem as today corporations pit different countries against each other to see which will offer the lowest tax rate.

However, fundamentally the idea is sound. Specifically, the world isn't making less stuff this year than last. We still (as a whole) have the same productive capacity. If we get rid of a bunch of jobs due to automation, we just need an economic model that allows for the distribution of those goods. I wish more main stream economists and politicians were talking about what it will take to get the supply and demand in sync.

My concern is that there will be a fundamental drop in the labor supply, due to many people choosing not to work. I'm honestly scared of what would become of such a society. (WALL-E? An even bigger class split?) Additionally, I can only imagine this becoming a political quagmire, similar to social security, where there's a huge political benefit to increase the "living wage". Lastly, I'm not convinced such a system would be more efficient, as has been proposed (second and third order effects are being overlooked).

Kyle Schuant

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #62 on: March 20, 2019, 08:55:38 PM »
I am not sure about the wisdom of a UBI, but I do know that the many and various aspects of administering the pensions we have here in Australia... it's much more expensive than the fraud we get.

If someone wants unemployment benefit, they must go to appointments, hand in forms each fortnight, if they're 5 minutes late to an appointment they get breached and lose their income for six weeks, and so on. The equivalent subsidy families with children in childcare get requires them to... apply online once a year. Apparently, the unemployed are an untrustworthy, lazy useless bunch who we must watch carefully, but working families with children are trustworthy, hardworking and useful and we must trust them implicitly.

Our total social welfare budget is something like AUD191 billion, with an adult voting population of 16.2 million. That's AUD11,823 per registered voter. We have of course another 9 million people besides that, but it seems reasonable to exclude children and non-citizens from any UBI kind of thing.

Actual rates paid are, rounded to nearest $1k,

- unemployed $13k
- tertiary student $12k
- disabled, aged or veteran $22k
- single parent $20k

These have various means and other tests, for example 18yo students' payments will be affected by parental income, veterans can get the pension five years before the aged, earning extra money cuts off some of the aged pension but a lot of the dole, etc. The rates and tests are based not on need (an unemployed 64yo does not suddenly have $9k more needs the day they turn 65) but on social status of the various groups, how sympathetic government and public are to them.

Financially, it would make more sense for the country to just give a certain subsidy to anyone who asks for it. Just tax it as income normally earned, and raise the higher income marginal rates slightly so that the net benefit of +$12k to those who don't need it is basically nil. Then there need be no regular reports or means tests or anything like that.

Of course then there would be less people employed stamping bits of paper and frowning at unemployed people and single mothers, and the press would have less people to harass for being "dole bludgers", etc. And I think this is key: we want our moral judgements. There are deserving poor and undeserving poor, we are told.

Leisured

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #63 on: March 20, 2019, 09:03:32 PM »
Some posters have complained about people living on a UBI and not adding economic value to society. The whole point of a UBI is that automation will eventually take so many jobs that most people will not be able to add value to society because some machine is doing it more cheaply.

A hundred years ago machines displaced farm workers, who moved to factory jobs in cities. More recently automation displaced factory workers who went into services. Automation threatens many workers in services, but now there is nowhere to turn to for employment. The water is rising, and we climb the hill, but we reach the top of the hill but the water is still rising. That is why we will eventually need a UBI. Moralistic arguments are irrelevant.

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #64 on: March 20, 2019, 09:16:29 PM »
A hundred years ago machines displaced farm workers, who moved to factory jobs in cities. More recently automation displaced factory workers who went into services. Automation threatens many workers in services, but now there is nowhere to turn to for employment. The water is rising, and we climb the hill, but we reach the top of the hill but the water is still rising.

Almost all the children who used to grow up to be field hands also had the right intelligence/aptitude/skills to learn to be factory workers instead.
A majority of the children who used to grow up to be factory workers also had the right intelligence/aptitude/skills to learn to work in an office (or school).
Many of the children who used to grow up to work in an office (or school) also had the right intelligence/aptitude/skills to learn to program computers or become engineers.
Some of the children who used to grow up to be computer programmers and engineers also had the right intelligence/aptitude/skills to design and build robots and train neural networks and other machine learning algorithms to do work that used to be done by humans.

I don't worry about running out of work to be done so much as the new work that is still being created moving beyond the capacity of lots of us (myself very VERY much included) to contribute to.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #65 on: March 20, 2019, 09:24:46 PM »
Some posters have complained about people living on a UBI and not adding economic value to society.
We have plenty of that already. Lifelong unemployed, permanently disabled, Movie Set Intimacy Consultants, CEOs... Around 40% of jobs are bullshit jobs (watch it, it's funny - unless you're doing a bullshit job), producing nothing of value to anyone, and even people doing productive jobs typically spend large chunks of their work day idle. Adam Smith put the rentier class in the "unproductive" category, by the way - and that's what most of us aspire to, earning money from someone else's use of assets we've bought.

Thanks to our using 300 million years of energy in 300 years, our society is so enormously productive than we can indeed pay people to do nothing productive. It's just that we assign a higher social status to the unproductive people getting $100k than the unproductive people getting $10k, because the ones on $100k at least try to look busy.

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #66 on: March 20, 2019, 09:36:14 PM »
I am not sure about the wisdom of a UBI, but I do know that the many and various aspects of administering the pensions we have here in Australia... it's much more expensive than the fraud we get.

If someone wants unemployment benefit, they must go to appointments, hand in forms each fortnight, if they're 5 minutes late to an appointment they get breached and lose their income for six weeks, and so on. The equivalent subsidy families with children in childcare get requires them to... apply online once a year. Apparently, the unemployed are an untrustworthy, lazy useless bunch who we must watch carefully, but working families with children are trustworthy, hardworking and useful and we must trust them implicitly.

Our total social welfare budget is something like AUD191 billion, with an adult voting population of 16.2 million. That's AUD11,823 per registered voter. We have of course another 9 million people besides that, but it seems reasonable to exclude children and non-citizens from any UBI kind of thing.

Actual rates paid are, rounded to nearest $1k,

- unemployed $13k
- tertiary student $12k
- disabled, aged or veteran $22k
- single parent $20k

These have various means and other tests, for example 18yo students' payments will be affected by parental income, veterans can get the pension five years before the aged, earning extra money cuts off some of the aged pension but a lot of the dole, etc. The rates and tests are based not on need (an unemployed 64yo does not suddenly have $9k more needs the day they turn 65) but on social status of the various groups, how sympathetic government and public are to them.

Financially, it would make more sense for the country to just give a certain subsidy to anyone who asks for it. Just tax it as income normally earned, and raise the higher income marginal rates slightly so that the net benefit of +$12k to those who don't need it is basically nil. Then there need be no regular reports or means tests or anything like that.

Of course then there would be less people employed stamping bits of paper and frowning at unemployed people and single mothers, and the press would have less people to harass for being "dole bludgers", etc. And I think this is key: we want our moral judgements. There are deserving poor and undeserving poor, we are told.

The reason I don't want to pay extra tax for a UBI is not so that I can morally judge others. It's so that I don't have to pay the extra tax.

As for productive vs non-productive jobs, it doesn't faze me one way or another whether my job is considered by some arbitrary standard to be "productive". I only care that I am paid a market rate for it. Others can discuss the philosophical and epistemological ramifications.

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #67 on: March 20, 2019, 09:56:01 PM »
As I said, it's not clear it'd be extra tax, since there's an enormous administrative burden associated with the current social welfare systems across the West, with activity and means tests, etc.

It's like how supermarkets are rolling out self-checkout systems. They know there's some theft, partly from deliberate theft, partly from "stupid thing won't scan, I'll put it in my bag anyway", and partly from honest mistakes, but the cost of the theft is less than the cost of checkout staff. With or without UBI, it'd be intelligent to apply similar principles to social welfare.

We can argue that there is a "market rate" for people to be idle unemployed. "Pay me this much, or instead I will become a criminal and cost you even more to keep me in prison." So I am not entirely convinced that "market rate" means much. My point is simply that if we are going to judge people for being unproductive, it may lead us places we're personally uncomfortable with. So it's best not to.

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #68 on: March 20, 2019, 10:55:47 PM »
As I said, it's not clear it'd be extra tax, since there's an enormous administrative burden associated with the current social welfare systems across the West, with activity and means tests, etc.

It's like how supermarkets are rolling out self-checkout systems. They know there's some theft, partly from deliberate theft, partly from "stupid thing won't scan, I'll put it in my bag anyway", and partly from honest mistakes, but the cost of the theft is less than the cost of checkout staff. With or without UBI, it'd be intelligent to apply similar principles to social welfare.

We can argue that there is a "market rate" for people to be idle unemployed. "Pay me this much, or instead I will become a criminal and cost you even more to keep me in prison." So I am not entirely convinced that "market rate" means much. My point is simply that if we are going to judge people for being unproductive, it may lead us places we're personally uncomfortable with. So it's best not to.

I understand your points so I will reply in a bit more depth. Yes, it's true that provision of unconditional welfare will simplify the processing requirements and save us money.

However, whereas you could probably provide a small 'safety net' for dire situations on the current budget (and that's something I support), if you were to take away all conditions to the receipt, then suddenly the figures become extremely high. For example, my country (Australia) has 25 million people, of whom about 20 million are 18+. The total revenue take in 2016 was only $487 billion. That is less than $25,000 per adult (i.e. - $17,000 USD) which is in fact equivalent to about 2/3 the minimum wage. And of course, a lot the $487 billion figure is spent on other areas of funding such as hospitals and roads. In reality only 35% of the tax take is spent on social security and welfare (https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/BriefingBook45p/WelfareCost). So the actual 'welfare budget' per adult, even assuming 100% efficiency and nil delivery cost, is about $8,500 AUD ($6,000 USD) which is not enough for any sort of living wage.

https://www.oecd.org/ctp/tax-policy/revenue-statistics-australia.pdf

I also agree with you that there is probably a 'market rate' which is the rate at which criminality increases. That's why I agree that resources should be spent keeping people out of dire poverty, homelessness and starvation. I'm all in favour of that. But that is very different from a UBI or living wage.

Leisured

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #69 on: March 20, 2019, 11:58:08 PM »
I don't worry about running out of work to be done so much as the new work that is still being created moving beyond the capacity of lots of us (myself very VERY much included) to contribute to.

A good point Maizeman, but there is a fallacy.  Say 150M Americans in the workforce, and automation puts 75M out of work in 20 years. Suppose these unemployed are all capable of scientific research and investigating machine learning. Will these industries employ all 75M of them?  No.

Europe will experience the same problem at about the time the USA does. Most of the rest of the world will experience automation in say 40 years. The global scale of technological unemployment by mid-century will be gigantic.


Leisured

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #70 on: March 20, 2019, 11:59:35 PM »
The ghost of Jack Ludd is telling me what to write. About 1810, Jack Ludd and some associates, all unemployed weavers, largely a cottage industry in those days, would burst into factories which used weaving machines powered by water or steam, and lay about them with sledge hammers.

Ludd performed acts of sabotage, but I have seen subtle acts of suppression of automation. I was a trainee financial planner for a while in 2003, employed by a large Australian bank, and attended a class on the bank’s financial planning software. I came to realise that the computer program automated the boring part of the job, such as recording the client’s name and address, and added up his assets and liabilities. But at the more advanced level, somehow automation petered out. I have been a computer programmer, and I realised that someone in Head Office has said to the bank’s computer programmers: thus far and no further.

One of my classmates had seen the same thing, and he was visibly dismayed by what had happened. He had done some Fortran programming at university, so he too knew what was possible. We did not say anything to our instructor, but the instructor said to the class; ‘Some of you may think that more automation is possible, but do not bother raising the matter because nothing will happen’. So the instructor also knew there was something fishy going on.

A few years later, I was working in a huge and largely automated winery. Boxes of wine passed down the conveyor, and an ingenious machine used small suction caps to drop cardboard spacers between the bottles in the cardboard box. The process should have been automatic, but the suction caps were not working properly, and the machine just dropped the spacers into the box, and workers were employed to pat the spacers down in the right place. Light work. I felt the suction caps and they were hard, and not flexible enough to cling to the cardboard spacers, and I assumed that maintenance staff had deliberately not replaced the suction caps, so that workers would be employed.

The three Italian brothers who owned the winery presumably knew what was going on, as they walked past. They were the largest employers in the area, and I assumed that they turned a blind eye.

What impressed me was that nobody said a word, and there seemed a conspiracy of silence. The rule seems to be that machinery which does heavy or dangerous work is allowed to do its job. Machinery which does boring clerical work is allowed to do its job. But for more interesting work, or for light work such as patting cardboard spacers between wine bottle, somehow things just did not work as they were supposed to.

I assume that these subtle acts of suppression – I will not use the word sabotage – pervades advanced economies, and in the future there will be a political push to suppress certain jobs as policy, to employ people.



middo

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #71 on: March 21, 2019, 01:18:35 AM »
As I said, it's not clear it'd be extra tax, since there's an enormous administrative burden associated with the current social welfare systems across the West, with activity and means tests, etc.

It's like how supermarkets are rolling out self-checkout systems. They know there's some theft, partly from deliberate theft, partly from "stupid thing won't scan, I'll put it in my bag anyway", and partly from honest mistakes, but the cost of the theft is less than the cost of checkout staff. With or without UBI, it'd be intelligent to apply similar principles to social welfare.

We can argue that there is a "market rate" for people to be idle unemployed. "Pay me this much, or instead I will become a criminal and cost you even more to keep me in prison." So I am not entirely convinced that "market rate" means much. My point is simply that if we are going to judge people for being unproductive, it may lead us places we're personally uncomfortable with. So it's best not to.

I understand your points so I will reply in a bit more depth. Yes, it's true that provision of unconditional welfare will simplify the processing requirements and save us money.

However, whereas you could probably provide a small 'safety net' for dire situations on the current budget (and that's something I support), if you were to take away all conditions to the receipt, then suddenly the figures become extremely high. For example, my country (Australia) has 25 million people, of whom about 20 million are 18+. The total revenue take in 2016 was only $487 billion. That is less than $25,000 per adult (i.e. - $17,000 USD) which is in fact equivalent to about 2/3 the minimum wage. And of course, a lot the $487 billion figure is spent on other areas of funding such as hospitals and roads. In reality only 35% of the tax take is spent on social security and welfare (https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/BriefingBook45p/WelfareCost). So the actual 'welfare budget' per adult, even assuming 100% efficiency and nil delivery cost, is about $8,500 AUD ($6,000 USD) which is not enough for any sort of living wage.

https://www.oecd.org/ctp/tax-policy/revenue-statistics-australia.pdf

I also agree with you that there is probably a 'market rate' which is the rate at which criminality increases. That's why I agree that resources should be spent keeping people out of dire poverty, homelessness and starvation. I'm all in favour of that. But that is very different from a UBI or living wage.

There are a few aspects of you post that I find questionable.  What you were basically stating is that a UBI could come in at around $8500 at the moment without any real changes to taxation rates.  However, part of the point of a UBI is that it raises people out of poverty, so they do not commit as many crimes, and lead happier and healthier lives.  There has been research into this.  See Rutger Bregman's book Utopia for Realists for a better explanation than any I could give now.

However, there is nothing to suggest that Australia could not sustain a higher level of taxation.  There are certainly sections of Australian business that pays effectively no tax (Apple), and plenty of wealthy arrange their affairs to reduce their tax significantly.  Tax reform could reap significantly more for distribution via a UBI.

Another part of the equation however is reduction in costs to society.  Not just in the welfare administration sector, but also in criminal justice areas.  For instance, each prisoner in Australia costs $109,000 per prisoner per year. *  And our Policing costs 427 per person per year - $10 billion per year. *  (* https://ipa.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/IPA-Report-Australian-Criminal-Justice-Costs-An-International-Comparison.pdf)

Reducing these by 20% would also provide a significant windfall back into the coffers, giving the government significantly more to pay for a UBI.

Personally I love that this idea is starting to become mainstream.  It is about time, as it was considered in the '70's and got canned because the UBI being suggested by Nixon was not high enough for the democrats to agree with it.  A huge opportunity missed, and a war on drugs waged that could have been not necessary. 

Lastly, if people thing a UBI is just about money, they are so wrong.  Poverty is about money.  Poverty is about the lack of money.  UBI fixes poverty.  But it also fixes health outcomes, drug dependencies, and general well being. 


Bloop Bloop

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #72 on: March 21, 2019, 01:58:39 AM »
To that, I would say as follows:

1. The person I was responding to was saying that you could have a UBI without raising taxes. My point was that any semi-meaningful UBI would require a significant increase in taxes.

2. You say that a UBI raises people out of poverty and so leads to better social outcomes. Presumably your point is that the efficiency of social programs and tax spending goes up. Even if we accept that, a UBI could also easily lead to lower tax receipts which balance out any gains. For example, if you gave me $8,500 per year in extra money, I would work less to the tune of about $17,500 (gross) since that figure, after GST and marginal income tax, comes out to $8,500 in my hand. Even ignoring the lost productivity from my diminished self-employment, the fact is the government has just lost about $9,000 in income tax and GST revenue as a result of me getting the UBI.

3. You could restrict people like me from getting the UBI. But then you need a system that determines who is and is not eligible for the UBI. You could use the current tax system. But there would have to be a lot of bureaucracy connected to processing tax returns and challenges to the UBI system. And of course, it wouldn't be universal any more.

4. As for Australia's level of taxation - our level of personal and company tax is already the 2nd and 3rd highest, respectively, in the OECD. Many people, like me, are sick of paying so much tax. Paying more tax so we can  float other people's "living wages" is not something that I, and many others, look forward to. Piss me off enough and I may decide to leave altogether to, say, Canada/New Zealand, and/or FIRE early. Sure, I'm just one insignificant person, but I contribute easily $100k in total tax revenue a year. If enough of us leave, you will have difficulty securing current revenue let alone UBI revenue.

middo

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #73 on: March 21, 2019, 02:25:26 AM »
To that, I would say as follows:

1. The person I was responding to was saying that you could have a UBI without raising taxes. My point was that any semi-meaningful UBI would require a significant increase in taxes.


And my point was that it is possible.  It may even be desirable.  It depends on your viewpoint.


2. You say that a UBI raises people out of poverty and so leads to better social outcomes. Presumably your point is that the efficiency of social programs and tax spending goes up. Even if we accept that, a UBI could also easily lead to lower tax receipts which balance out any gains. For example, if you gave me $8,500 per year in extra money, I would work less to the tune of about $17,500 (gross) since that figure, after GST and marginal income tax, comes out to $8,500 in my hand. Even ignoring the lost productivity from my diminished self-employment, the fact is the government has just lost about $9,000 in income tax and GST revenue as a result of me getting the UBI.

But would you work less?  Have you made a conscious decision to earn less last time there were tax cuts? The average person does not.

3. You could restrict people like me from getting the UBI. But then you need a system that determines who is and is not eligible for the UBI. You could use the current tax system. But there would have to be a lot of bureaucracy connected to processing tax returns and challenges to the UBI system. And of course, it wouldn't be universal any more.


Part of the point of a UBI is that it is Universal.  Everyone gets it as a right.


4. As for Australia's level of taxation - our level of personal and company tax is already the 2nd and 3rd highest, respectively, in the OECD. Many people, like me, are sick of paying so much tax. Paying more tax so we can  float other people's "living wages" is not something that I, and many others, look forward to. Piss me off enough and I may decide to leave altogether to, say, Canada/New Zealand, and/or FIRE early. Sure, I'm just one insignificant person, but I contribute easily $100k in total tax revenue a year. If enough of us leave, you will have difficulty securing current revenue let alone UBI revenue.

Source? Overall taxation rates?  Personal tax rates are progressive, so you need to compare at various levels of income.  And if you fire, good for you!  Why don't you?

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #74 on: March 21, 2019, 02:26:00 AM »
Your job provides, on average, more value than the jobs of people who make less than you (unless your job involves graft).

Can you show us the numbers for this?

Because the only studies I know that were done on wage <-> contribution to society showed the exact opposite.

The more your work does for society, the less you are paid. (On average of course). Just compare primary school teachers (more important than secondary and third education, but paid less than those) with investment bankers (who create nothing, effectivly only destroying resources).

The reason, the guess goes, may be that people already get "paid in respect" and should not expect to get paid in money.

Fair enough. But since my explanation is in line with economic fundamentals, and yours is not, I would think it more appropriate for you to show us the data.
That's because "economic fundamentals" are mostly nonsense because they rely on models whose real life examples don't exist. The most basic assumptions are far from reality, like the homo oeconomicus. I have never met even one, still economics pretend that is how we all are doing.

But if you want to read a bit on that topic, here: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/more-valuable-your-work-society-less-youll-paid-david-graeber/

Quote
I know a number of people whose "passions" are playing video games or drinking alcohol. Nothing inherently wrong with either of these activities
I know a number of people whose "passions" are swindling people, making them miserable, destroying nature... A lot is inherently wrong with that and still I have to support them because of people like you.

Quote
I don't believe that everyone ought to be spoon-fed a living wage.
So you are okay with people dying of hunger or cold or illness? Because that is what this amonts to.

Quote
What impressed me was that nobody said a word, and there seemed a conspiracy of silence.
There is. One part is the the not-homo-oeconomicus owners want to provide for their workers. The other half is the people from above: No work? No Food! There is no work? Then we have to create some.
Like painting in pictures to get your social security.

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #75 on: March 21, 2019, 03:38:27 AM »
Would I work less? Yes. I set a goal amount of savings per year so once I reach that I can stop working. The last time there was a tax cut in the upper brackets was some years ago and I didn't have that luxury then.

And like I said, if you want a UBI going to 20 million adults, you have to find a way to fund it. I've put my figures out there. Feel free to find your own.

re - Australia's level of taxation: see the handy charts here
https://www.oecd.org/ctp/tax-policy/revenue-statistics-australia.pdf

Why don't I FIRE yet? Because I want to keep working so I can shore up a higher standard of living for retirement, and buy a supercar. But if tax rates rise significantly in the wake of a UBI, I will have to re-evaluate whether my time and effort is worth it given the high marginal rates involved.

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #76 on: March 21, 2019, 03:41:16 AM »
As for the comment regarding "So you are okay with people dying of hunger or cold or illness? Because that is what this amounts to." No, I specifically have said everyone deserves food, warmth and basic shelter. My reference to a "living wage" was a wage which is said to provide full participation in social, civic and recreational/leisure pursuits.

To be clear: I think current welfare, which provides the essentials but not a living wage, is good. I think universal living wage (which is often defined as 60% of the median full-time income, thus nearly $40,000 a year) is incredibly inflationary and unjustified.

LennStar

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #77 on: March 21, 2019, 08:09:21 AM »
As for the comment regarding "So you are okay with people dying of hunger or cold or illness? Because that is what this amounts to." No, I specifically have said everyone deserves food, warmth and basic shelter. My reference to a "living wage" was a wage which is said to provide full participation in social, civic and recreational/leisure pursuits.

To be clear: I think current welfare, which provides the essentials but not a living wage, is good. I think universal living wage (which is often defined as 60% of the median full-time income, thus nearly $40,000 a year) is incredibly inflationary and unjustified.
Well, obviously here is the misunderstood Christian heritage (who does not work should not eat) at fault. As someone coming from the Enlightement angle that has left that 2000 year old stuff behind, is living in modern high-productivity days and is working on the basis of inherent human rights, I of course include more than just not starving in "human dignity", as our Grundgesetz puts it.

40K is a number I cannot understand. You are talking about US dollar? Thats about 35K €, or more than the German average income, for similar costs.

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #78 on: March 21, 2019, 08:14:42 AM »
My concern is that there will be a fundamental drop in the labor supply, due to many people choosing not to work. I'm honestly scared of what would become of such a society. (WALL-E? An even bigger class split?) Additionally, I can only imagine this becoming a political quagmire, similar to social security, where there's a huge political benefit to increase the "living wage". Lastly, I'm not convinced such a system would be more efficient, as has been proposed (second and third order effects are being overlooked).

I think we're already living in a dystopian WALL-E world where everyone is stuck to their phone but lots of people lack housing, health care, and healthy food to eat.

Also, it's not really about preventing WALL-E. It's about preventing something worse than WALL-E where you get stabbed for $40 because hunger is a very good motivator but all the jobs are gone. Also, its about still have a consumer base for the professionals that do work. How am I going to get paid to write software if there aren't any consumers left?

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #79 on: March 21, 2019, 08:36:37 AM »
Your job provides, on average, more value than the jobs of people who make less than you (unless your job involves graft).

Can you show us the numbers for this?

Because the only studies I know that were done on wage <-> contribution to society showed the exact opposite.

The more your work does for society, the less you are paid. (On average of course). Just compare primary school teachers (more important than secondary and third education, but paid less than those) with investment bankers (who create nothing, effectivly only destroying resources).

The reason, the guess goes, may be that people already get "paid in respect" and should not expect to get paid in money.

Fair enough. But since my explanation is in line with economic fundamentals, and yours is not, I would think it more appropriate for you to show us the data.
That's because "economic fundamentals" are mostly nonsense because they rely on models whose real life examples don't exist. The most basic assumptions are far from reality, like the homo oeconomicus. I have never met even one, still economics pretend that is how we all are doing.

But if you want to read a bit on that topic, here: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/more-valuable-your-work-society-less-youll-paid-david-graeber/

Quote
I know a number of people whose "passions" are playing video games or drinking alcohol. Nothing inherently wrong with either of these activities
I know a number of people whose "passions" are swindling people, making them miserable, destroying nature... A lot is inherently wrong with that and still I have to support them because of people like you.

Quote
I don't believe that everyone ought to be spoon-fed a living wage.
So you are okay with people dying of hunger or cold or illness? Because that is what this amonts to.

Quote
What impressed me was that nobody said a word, and there seemed a conspiracy of silence.
There is. One part is the the not-homo-oeconomicus owners want to provide for their workers. The other half is the people from above: No work? No Food! There is no work? Then we have to create some.
Like painting in pictures to get your social security.

I will agree that there are a lot of bullshit jobs in modern society. But I don't believe there are quite as many as you seem to believe.

As much as you may want to believe it, primary care givers do not provide greater societal benefit than investment bankers (let's just say I'm calling bullshit). Yes, the primary caregiver may have a more immediate view of their contributions, but investment bankers serve to move money around to where it is needed most, thus allowing the economy to function smoothly. A lot of us in the FIRE community depend greatly on their contributions to keep the economy humming. And yes, the drudgery involved in banking is partly responsible for the additional income.

Funny but I would say that us Mustachians are closest to homo oeconomicus of any group of people extant. But, you do understand it is just a concept people use to help explain phenomena, similar to "force" in physics?

Quote
So you are okay with people dying of hunger or cold or illness? Because that is what this amonts to.

Yes, if someone has no desire to provide value to society, than I'm ok with them getting their just rewards. And if they aren't capable of surviving completely on their own, than they have a good chance of dying of hunger or cold or illness. I won't lose any sleep at night. But you know what, this isn't really something that needs to be worried about, because as soon as these people get hungry or cold, they will be begging for work. And there will always be work available.

Bloop Bloop

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #80 on: March 21, 2019, 08:44:45 AM »
As for the comment regarding "So you are okay with people dying of hunger or cold or illness? Because that is what this amounts to." No, I specifically have said everyone deserves food, warmth and basic shelter. My reference to a "living wage" was a wage which is said to provide full participation in social, civic and recreational/leisure pursuits.

To be clear: I think current welfare, which provides the essentials but not a living wage, is good. I think universal living wage (which is often defined as 60% of the median full-time income, thus nearly $40,000 a year) is incredibly inflationary and unjustified.
Well, obviously here is the misunderstood Christian heritage (who does not work should not eat) at fault. As someone coming from the Enlightement angle that has left that 2000 year old stuff behind, is living in modern high-productivity days and is working on the basis of inherent human rights, I of course include more than just not starving in "human dignity", as our Grundgesetz puts it.

40K is a number I cannot understand. You are talking about US dollar? Thats about 35K €, or more than the German average income, for similar costs.

$40k is the AUD figure. The nominal equivalent is $27,500 USD. The PPP equivalent is about $22,500 USD.

And although I commend your generosity, for me, I have gotten sick of paying reams and reams of income tax each year and I have no desire to support other people's lifestyles to an ever higher extent.

Boofinator

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #81 on: March 21, 2019, 08:45:25 AM »
My concern is that there will be a fundamental drop in the labor supply, due to many people choosing not to work. I'm honestly scared of what would become of such a society. (WALL-E? An even bigger class split?) Additionally, I can only imagine this becoming a political quagmire, similar to social security, where there's a huge political benefit to increase the "living wage". Lastly, I'm not convinced such a system would be more efficient, as has been proposed (second and third order effects are being overlooked).

I think we're already living in a dystopian WALL-E world where everyone is stuck to their phone but lots of people lack housing, health care, and healthy food to eat.

Also, it's not really about preventing WALL-E. It's about preventing something worse than WALL-E where you get stabbed for $40 because hunger is a very good motivator but all the jobs are gone. Also, its about still have a consumer base for the professionals that do work. How am I going to get paid to write software if there aren't any consumers left?

I think where we disagree is that I believe there will always be jobs. Those jobs are going to change over time, but they aren't ever going to disappear, because as long as people provide a positive value to society, they will be compensated for that value. If it gets to the point that people's work provides no positive value to society, than I shudder to think of such a society.

Also, nobody* is going to starve short of catastrophic food supply issues. Any hunger that currently exists in the USA will not magically disappear with a UBI.

*A generalization, being that yes, some people will starve to death every year short of universal feeding tubes (to go along with the bed pans and catheters).

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #82 on: March 21, 2019, 08:47:13 AM »
Also, it's not really about preventing WALL-E. It's about preventing something worse than WALL-E where you get stabbed for $40 because hunger is a very good motivator but all the jobs are gone. Also, its about still have a consumer base for the professionals that do work. How am I going to get paid to write software if there aren't any consumers left?

This is one o the things I think gets lost in the ethical debate. You can make an ethical case for providing everyone with the basic resources they need to go to sleep full bellies and not shiver through the night out in the cold. You can also make a moral case for letting those who aren't willing to work starve rather than taking from those who do. I'm not saying I AGREE with either, but once can certainly construct an argument.

But I've yet to see anyone make a pragmatic argument that if you throw a large portion of the population out to starve in the streets that they'd do so quietly rather than tearing down our whole civilization if necessary to try to survive and feed their children.

katsiki

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #83 on: March 21, 2019, 08:50:33 AM »
I think where we disagree is that I believe there will always be jobs. Those jobs are going to change over time, but they aren't ever going to disappear, because as long as people provide a positive value to society, they will be compensated for that value. If it gets to the point that people's work provides no positive value to society, than I shudder to think of such a society.
*A generalization, being that yes, some people will starve to death every year short of universal feeding tubes (to go along with the bed pans and catheters).

+1.  I am interested in UBI as I think it has merit and may "fix" some of the current programs.  I think the "AI / robots are coming to take our jobs" is overblown.

Boofinator

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #84 on: March 21, 2019, 08:56:42 AM »
Also, it's not really about preventing WALL-E. It's about preventing something worse than WALL-E where you get stabbed for $40 because hunger is a very good motivator but all the jobs are gone. Also, its about still have a consumer base for the professionals that do work. How am I going to get paid to write software if there aren't any consumers left?

This is one o the things I think gets lost in the ethical debate. You can make an ethical case for providing everyone with the basic resources they need to go to sleep full bellies and not shiver through the night out in the cold. You can also make a moral case for letting those who aren't willing to work starve rather than taking from those who do. I'm not saying I AGREE with either, but once can certainly construct an argument.

But I've yet to see anyone make a pragmatic argument that if you throw a large portion of the population out to starve in the streets that they'd do so quietly rather than tearing down our whole civilization if necessary to try to survive and feed their children.

I agree 100% with this statement. It's certainly happened before. But the big question left unsaid is what to do to ensure a large portion of the population doesn't meet that fate? I don't like the suggestion of a UBI because I think it comes with perverse incentives which tend to increase the probability of such an event happening (in my opinion). Just to make it clear in the open, people starving in the streets doesn't necessarily follow from a lack of money on their part (though that could be a contributing factor), it comes from a lack of productivity.

JLee

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #85 on: March 21, 2019, 08:57:10 AM »
And it has little to do with being smart or privileged (ask all of the illegal immigrants begging to get in to the United States).

People who are "begging to get in" have by definition not yet immigrated and therefore are not "illegal."

That said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/29/opinion/sunday/black-income-white-privilege.html

https://www.zerodayfinance.com/understanding-income-inequality-using-monopoloy

https://everydayfeminism.com/2014/05/income-vs-wealth/

https://www.thesunmagazine.org/issues/506/separate-and-unequal

Boofinator

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #86 on: March 21, 2019, 09:09:41 AM »
And it has little to do with being smart or privileged (ask all of the illegal immigrants begging to get in to the United States).

People who are "begging to get in" have by definition not yet immigrated and therefore are not "illegal."

That said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/29/opinion/sunday/black-income-white-privilege.html

https://www.zerodayfinance.com/understanding-income-inequality-using-monopoloy

https://everydayfeminism.com/2014/05/income-vs-wealth/

https://www.thesunmagazine.org/issues/506/separate-and-unequal

Very poor choice of words on my part. Perhaps I should have put "all of the immigrants who are willing to break laws and live under a cloud of risk for the rest of their lives to get in to the United States". That, and all of the other immigrants going the legal route.

That being said, I enjoyed the monopoly article. The big difference is that life is not a zero-sum game.

shenlong55

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #87 on: March 21, 2019, 09:22:48 AM »
As for the comment regarding "So you are okay with people dying of hunger or cold or illness? Because that is what this amounts to." No, I specifically have said everyone deserves food, warmth and basic shelter. My reference to a "living wage" was a wage which is said to provide full participation in social, civic and recreational/leisure pursuits.

To be clear: I think current welfare, which provides the essentials but not a living wage, is good. I think universal living wage (which is often defined as 60% of the median full-time income, thus nearly $40,000 a year) is incredibly inflationary and unjustified.
Well, obviously here is the misunderstood Christian heritage (who does not work should not eat) at fault. As someone coming from the Enlightement angle that has left that 2000 year old stuff behind, is living in modern high-productivity days and is working on the basis of inherent human rights, I of course include more than just not starving in "human dignity", as our Grundgesetz puts it.

40K is a number I cannot understand. You are talking about US dollar? Thats about 35K €, or more than the German average income, for similar costs.

$40k is the AUD figure. The nominal equivalent is $27,500 USD. The PPP equivalent is about $22,500 USD.

And although I commend your generosity, for me, I have gotten sick of paying reams and reams of income tax each year and I have no desire to support other people's lifestyles to an ever higher extent.

That's about $7,000 more than the current US minimum wage.  Which is another way UBI could save money, btw.  It could probably take the place of most labor laws.  If a UBI is paying for your basic needs then you can easily leave your job if your employer treats you poorly.  I think that removing the distortion that humanity's survival instinct causes in the market as well as the other distortions that we have created in the past by attempting to address it while insisting on applying moral judgements to the solution would make the market much more efficient and lead to better outcomes for most people.

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #88 on: March 21, 2019, 09:52:21 AM »
I don't like the suggestion of a UBI because I think it comes with perverse incentives which tend to increase the probability of such an event happening (in my opinion).

Could you please elaborate on these perverse incentives? I don't see them.

Just to make it clear in the open, people starving in the streets doesn't necessarily follow from a lack of money on their part (though that could be a contributing factor), it comes from a lack of productivity.

In the US, you use money to buy food. You can be productive to society in many ways (parenting is a good example, at least in the US) that does not lead to money. Pro bono legal work would be another example - to the extent that the law is at all productive (but going to prison is obviously the opposite of productive).

FIPurpose

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #89 on: March 21, 2019, 09:59:06 AM »
I don't like the suggestion of a UBI because I think it comes with perverse incentives which tend to increase the probability of such an event happening (in my opinion).

Could you please elaborate on these perverse incentives? I don't see them.

Just to make it clear in the open, people starving in the streets doesn't necessarily follow from a lack of money on their part (though that could be a contributing factor), it comes from a lack of productivity.

In the US, you use money to buy food. You can be productive to society in many ways (parenting is a good example, at least in the US) that does not lead to money. Pro bono legal work would be another example - to the extent that the law is at all productive (but going to prison is obviously the opposite of productive).

And we're ignoring the main driver of wealth on this forum -- Owning Investments/Capital.

Owning stocks is not a meaningful contribution to society. You don't really have any input to the companies. When you die, your capital will just be passed on to either grow or be consumed by someone else.

So what is the meaningful contribution that inheritances provide society? It's just handing money off to someone who didn't contribute to society for it.

What would UBI represent? An inheritance that we as a country all pass on collectively for having built up our collective investments for centuries.

So anyone against UBI here, I hope is also for 100% estate tax.

JLee

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #90 on: March 21, 2019, 10:03:52 AM »
I don't like the suggestion of a UBI because I think it comes with perverse incentives which tend to increase the probability of such an event happening (in my opinion).

Could you please elaborate on these perverse incentives? I don't see them.

Just to make it clear in the open, people starving in the streets doesn't necessarily follow from a lack of money on their part (though that could be a contributing factor), it comes from a lack of productivity.

In the US, you use money to buy food. You can be productive to society in many ways (parenting is a good example, at least in the US) that does not lead to money. Pro bono legal work would be another example - to the extent that the law is at all productive (but going to prison is obviously the opposite of productive).

And we're ignoring the main driver of wealth on this forum -- Owning Investments/Capital.

Owning stocks is not a meaningful contribution to society. You don't really have any input to the companies. When you die, your capital will just be passed on to either grow or be consumed by someone else.

So what is the meaningful contribution that inheritances provide society? It's just handing money off to someone who didn't contribute to society for it.

What would UBI represent? An inheritance that we as a country all pass on collectively for having built up our collective investments for centuries.

So anyone against UBI here, I hope is also for 100% estate tax.

That is a brilliant perspective / comparison I have not yet seen or considered.

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #91 on: March 21, 2019, 10:35:07 AM »
I don't like the suggestion of a UBI because I think it comes with perverse incentives which tend to increase the probability of such an event happening (in my opinion).

Could you please elaborate on these perverse incentives? I don't see them.

Just to make it clear in the open, people starving in the streets doesn't necessarily follow from a lack of money on their part (though that could be a contributing factor), it comes from a lack of productivity.

In the US, you use money to buy food. You can be productive to society in many ways (parenting is a good example, at least in the US) that does not lead to money. Pro bono legal work would be another example - to the extent that the law is at all productive (but going to prison is obviously the opposite of productive).

The perverse incentive is that people will have less inclination to work. Perhaps a little history might shed light as to my position: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Personal_Responsibility_and_Work_Opportunity_Act. As I've mentioned on the forum, I am not a Republican, but I do believe people respond to incentives, and that we need to ensure the correct ones are in place.

As far as the money to buy food comment: I am 100% onboard ensuring a living wage for those wanting to work. I am also in favor of reducing current levels of inequality. But, it doesn't matter how much money floods the system if you don't produce enough food to feed everyone. The examples of perverse incentives creating exactly this problem are glaring and have perhaps already been mentioned in this thread:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Chinese_Famine

There are other causes of famine that are a result of capitalism run amok (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Famine_(Ireland)); this latter would be an example of where the food was available, but the people did not have the money with which to purchase it.

shenlong55

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #92 on: March 21, 2019, 11:00:33 AM »
I don't like the suggestion of a UBI because I think it comes with perverse incentives which tend to increase the probability of such an event happening (in my opinion).

Could you please elaborate on these perverse incentives? I don't see them.

Just to make it clear in the open, people starving in the streets doesn't necessarily follow from a lack of money on their part (though that could be a contributing factor), it comes from a lack of productivity.

In the US, you use money to buy food. You can be productive to society in many ways (parenting is a good example, at least in the US) that does not lead to money. Pro bono legal work would be another example - to the extent that the law is at all productive (but going to prison is obviously the opposite of productive).

The perverse incentive is that people will have less inclination to work. Perhaps a little history might shed light as to my position: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Personal_Responsibility_and_Work_Opportunity_Act. As I've mentioned on the forum, I am not a Republican, but I do believe people respond to incentives, and that we need to ensure the correct ones are in place.

As far as the money to buy food comment: I am 100% onboard ensuring a living wage for those wanting to work. I am also in favor of reducing current levels of inequality. But, it doesn't matter how much money floods the system if you don't produce enough food to feed everyone. The examples of perverse incentives creating exactly this problem are glaring and have perhaps already been mentioned in this thread:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Chinese_Famine

There are other causes of famine that are a result of capitalism run amok (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Famine_(Ireland)); this latter would be an example of where the food was available, but the people did not have the money with which to purchase it.

May I ask how you would apply that belief to some of the examples presented?

Boofinator

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #93 on: March 21, 2019, 11:27:41 AM »
I don't like the suggestion of a UBI because I think it comes with perverse incentives which tend to increase the probability of such an event happening (in my opinion).

Could you please elaborate on these perverse incentives? I don't see them.

Just to make it clear in the open, people starving in the streets doesn't necessarily follow from a lack of money on their part (though that could be a contributing factor), it comes from a lack of productivity.

In the US, you use money to buy food. You can be productive to society in many ways (parenting is a good example, at least in the US) that does not lead to money. Pro bono legal work would be another example - to the extent that the law is at all productive (but going to prison is obviously the opposite of productive).

The perverse incentive is that people will have less inclination to work. Perhaps a little history might shed light as to my position: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Personal_Responsibility_and_Work_Opportunity_Act. As I've mentioned on the forum, I am not a Republican, but I do believe people respond to incentives, and that we need to ensure the correct ones are in place.

As far as the money to buy food comment: I am 100% onboard ensuring a living wage for those wanting to work. I am also in favor of reducing current levels of inequality. But, it doesn't matter how much money floods the system if you don't produce enough food to feed everyone. The examples of perverse incentives creating exactly this problem are glaring and have perhaps already been mentioned in this thread:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Chinese_Famine

There are other causes of famine that are a result of capitalism run amok (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Famine_(Ireland)); this latter would be an example of where the food was available, but the people did not have the money with which to purchase it.

May I ask how you would apply that belief to some of the examples presented?

These examples were presented in response to the comment that people go hungry due to lack of money. But they also show the general thrust of my argument: good intentions can be very destructive if they lead to perverse incentives. So they were intended to reflect on possible second-order effects of UBI, but I did not intend to imply UBI is equivalent to Marxism.

Maybe UBI will be great, and I'm overreacting. Are there extant examples that show the benefit from such a system?

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #94 on: March 21, 2019, 11:29:32 AM »
But I've yet to see anyone make a pragmatic argument that if you throw a large portion of the population out to starve in the streets that they'd do so quietly rather than tearing down our whole civilization if necessary to try to survive and feed their children.

And we already kind of know how this plays out--or at least how it could play out--just from our past history.  After the Industrial Revolution there were small number of people who got fabulously wealthy while everyone else had poorly paying jobs.   The way this got resolved in this country was by blood in the streets.   Take a look at this list:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_worker_deaths_in_United_States_labor_disputes

Here are some examples:

Quote
Paint Creek Mine War: a confrontation between striking coal miners and coal operators in Kanawha County, West Virginia, centered on the area between two streams, Paint Creek and Cabin Creek.[63] 12 miners were killed on July 26, 1912 at Mucklow. On February 7, 1913, the county sheriff's posse attacked the Holly Grove miners' camp with machine guns, killing striker Cesco Estep. Many more than 50 deaths among miners and their families were indirectly caused, as a result of starvation and malnutrition.[64]

The sheriff attacked with machine guns?!?

Quote
San Francisco Streetcar Strike of 1907:As the strike loomed, United Railroads contracted with the nationally known "King of the Strikebreakers", James Farley, for four hundred replacement workers. Farley's armed workers took control of the entire streetcar system. Violence started two days into the strike when a shootout on Turk Street left 2 dead and about 20 injured. Of the 31 deaths from shootings and streetcar accidents, 25 were among passengers.

25 passengers killed from shootouts on streetcars?!?

The whole list is just insane.  And it is a long list.  Out of all that violence came things like collective bargaining laws, UI, worker's comp, minimum wage, etc.  Point is, that as automation makes workers more productive, it doesn't follow that workers automatically get a share of their increased output.   The divide between the haves and have-not has caused whole governments to be violently overthrown, and more than just a few. 

Today we're part way into another revolution where lots of jobs we never thought would be automated are being lost to automation.   Newspapers already use computers to write sports stories, financial reports,  and election results.   Amazon Go stores don't require check-out clerks, or even check-out.  McDonald's has plans to have ordering kiosks in every store.  Every auto manufacturer either collaborating or working directly on self-driving cars.   On and on.   At some point those technologies are going to be ready for prime time, and all those jobs are going away.   

I freely confess I have no idea if UBI is the solution to all those problems, or even how it work in a practical sense.   But we need to start thinking about solutions.  Because we know what happens if we don't. 

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #95 on: March 21, 2019, 11:39:00 AM »
As far as the money to buy food comment: I am 100% onboard ensuring a living wage for those wanting to work. I am also in favor of reducing current levels of inequality.

Does that extend to guaranteeing work to those wanting to work, even if there is nothing productive for them to do? If so, it me that would seem to boil down to 6 of one, half a dozen of another. One way or another if we don't provide people with a viable option to feed themselves and their families, things get very dark, very fast, and not just for the specific people left without any options but for all of us including those who have already saved enough capital to cover our own needs.

Quote
But, it doesn't matter how much money floods the system if you don't produce enough food to feed everyone. The examples of perverse incentives creating exactly this problem are glaring and have perhaps already been mentioned in this thread:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Chinese_Famine

There are other causes of famine that are a result of capitalism run amok (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Famine_(Ireland)); this latter would be an example of where the food was available, but the people did not have the money with which to purchase it.

I'd say the current economic and political situation in the US puts us at much higher risk of something like the Irish Potato famine where plenty of food is being produced, the starving simply aren't able to buy it, so it ends up being exported, than the famines during the great leap forward in China.*

On a global scale, yes we are certainly at risk of major famines in coming decades simply from a shortfall of productivity but that has a lot more to do with population growth than any lack of efforts to increase and sustain yields. In most of the places where most of the food is grown around the world (in calorie terms rather than dollar terms, the latter biases the sample a lot towards fruits and vegetables and animal AG both of which are still much more labor intensive, although even there things are changing rapidly), human labor is a tiny fraction of the input needed.

The biggest threat there is probably the EU's new ban on gene editing, which they seem hell bent on exporting to Africa including many countries where the people who are food insecure have little power and the people who are exporting African grown produce to Europe have a lot.

*You also brought up the famine in Ukraine during the early years of the USSR, however my understanding is that this doesn't appear to have been a problem of economic incentives but rather an intentional genocide by Stalin against the Ukrainian people who were restless under Soviet rule. Admittedly this is a subject of some ongoing debate. The one person who could answer with complete confidence died in 1953.

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #96 on: March 21, 2019, 11:41:14 AM »
And we're ignoring the main driver of wealth on this forum -- Owning Investments/Capital.

Owning stocks is not a meaningful contribution to society. You don't really have any input to the companies. When you die, your capital will just be passed on to either grow or be consumed by someone else.

So what is the meaningful contribution that inheritances provide society? It's just handing money off to someone who didn't contribute to society for it.

What would UBI represent? An inheritance that we as a country all pass on collectively for having built up our collective investments for centuries.

So anyone against UBI here, I hope is also for 100% estate tax.

I disagree with the bolded part. Owning stocks allocates capital to more productive uses than spending it as a consumer sukka. Granted, a lot of that capital is allocated toward getting consumer sukkas to spend more, but not all of it.

I don't want to get into inheritance at the moment so I'll save it for some future thread.

shenlong55

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #97 on: March 21, 2019, 11:41:36 AM »
I don't like the suggestion of a UBI because I think it comes with perverse incentives which tend to increase the probability of such an event happening (in my opinion).

Could you please elaborate on these perverse incentives? I don't see them.

Just to make it clear in the open, people starving in the streets doesn't necessarily follow from a lack of money on their part (though that could be a contributing factor), it comes from a lack of productivity.

In the US, you use money to buy food. You can be productive to society in many ways (parenting is a good example, at least in the US) that does not lead to money. Pro bono legal work would be another example - to the extent that the law is at all productive (but going to prison is obviously the opposite of productive).

The perverse incentive is that people will have less inclination to work. Perhaps a little history might shed light as to my position: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Personal_Responsibility_and_Work_Opportunity_Act. As I've mentioned on the forum, I am not a Republican, but I do believe people respond to incentives, and that we need to ensure the correct ones are in place.

As far as the money to buy food comment: I am 100% onboard ensuring a living wage for those wanting to work. I am also in favor of reducing current levels of inequality. But, it doesn't matter how much money floods the system if you don't produce enough food to feed everyone. The examples of perverse incentives creating exactly this problem are glaring and have perhaps already been mentioned in this thread:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Chinese_Famine

There are other causes of famine that are a result of capitalism run amok (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Famine_(Ireland)); this latter would be an example of where the food was available, but the people did not have the money with which to purchase it.

May I ask how you would apply that belief to some of the examples presented?

These examples were presented in response to the comment that people go hungry due to lack of money. But they also show the general thrust of my argument: good intentions can be very destructive if they lead to perverse incentives. So they were intended to reflect on possible second-order effects of UBI, but I did not intend to imply UBI is equivalent to Marxism.

Maybe UBI will be great, and I'm overreacting. Are there extant examples that show the benefit from such a system?

I think you may have misunderstood my question.  You said you were fully on board with ensuring a living wage for those willing to work.  My question is, how do you think we should go about ensuring a living wage for those who currently do work that provides value to society that they are not currently compensated for.  The prime example would probably be parents.  I'm pretty sure we can agree that raising children provides value to society, but we don't currently ensure that all parents have a living wage.  My solution is UBI, since it also solves multitudes of other problems and makes the market more efficient.  How do you think we should solve this problem?

shenlong55

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #98 on: March 21, 2019, 11:48:17 AM »
And we're ignoring the main driver of wealth on this forum -- Owning Investments/Capital.

Owning stocks is not a meaningful contribution to society. You don't really have any input to the companies. When you die, your capital will just be passed on to either grow or be consumed by someone else.

So what is the meaningful contribution that inheritances provide society? It's just handing money off to someone who didn't contribute to society for it.

What would UBI represent? An inheritance that we as a country all pass on collectively for having built up our collective investments for centuries.

So anyone against UBI here, I hope is also for 100% estate tax.

I disagree with the bolded part. Owning stocks allocates capital to more productive uses than spending it as a consumer sukka. Granted, a lot of that capital is allocated toward getting consumer sukkas to spend more, but not all of it.

I don't want to get into inheritance at the moment so I'll save it for some future thread.

I disagree.  Using that capital to produce something useful produces value.  You giving it to someone else to allow them to create that value does entitle you to some of the benefits of that value, but you didn't create the value.  The workers who used it to create a useful item/service did.

maizefolk

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Re: $1000/month Universal Basic Income - Andrew Yang
« Reply #99 on: March 21, 2019, 11:48:39 AM »
As much as you may want to believe it, primary care givers do not provide greater societal benefit than investment bankers (let's just say I'm calling bullshit). Yes, the primary caregiver may have a more immediate view of their contributions, but investment bankers serve to move money around to where it is needed most, thus allowing the economy to function smoothly. A lot of us in the FIRE community depend greatly on their contributions to keep the economy humming. And yes, the drudgery involved in banking is partly responsible for the additional income.

Oh the great circular reasoning: people who earn more must contribute more to society. How do we know? Because they earn more.

Investment banking is a highly paid profession that requires particular skillsets both inherent and learned (including both intellectually and perhaps under-appreciated social/political ones). The inherent ones are only present in a particular subset of the population (potentially supply goes down). Of those with the inherent skills, only a small subset set out to receive the right education (potentially supply goes down more), and only a subset of them are able to secure one of the internships which are a gateway to acquiring the experience necessary to be a competitive hire in that world (potential supply goes down even more). Of those who land internships, many disqualify themselves in one way or another (poor judgement; burn out from long hours; decide they hate living on one of the few cities where investment bankers congregate).

So the total population of potential qualified people for an investment banking position is quite small. Add to that that is is easy to measure differences in performance between investment bankers (which may be due to skill or luck, but the differences are quite big and easy to quantify), and you have a field of employment where salaries are going to be quite high.

For primary school teachers there are frequently vast numbers of qualified applicants for any open position (at least in the part of the USA where I live, I think the situation is different places like California), and while I firmly believe that there are huge differences in the outcomes for students between a gifted primary school teacher and a burned out and bitter one it can be quite difficult if not impossible to MEASURE those differences. Hence, primary school teachers tend to have low and uniform pay.

It doesn't reflect a low societal benefit of their work, just the workings of supply and demand in the labor market.

 

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