Author Topic: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?  (Read 18559 times)

Jrr85

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Re: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?
« Reply #100 on: August 02, 2017, 10:37:40 AM »
Since the states are so similar, if minimum wages were really that big a differentiator you'd expect a different picture. If taxes were a diffentiator you'd expect a different picture. Conclusion from the top article is that slight differences in key industries contribute some, as does MN's higher quality of life and better educated workforce.
I dunno if I'd say "you'd expect." As you rightly point out, there are far too many variables to make any certain conclusions. However, for the minimum wage and tax skeptics, it would be nice to see at least some positive evidence that reducing taxes or having a low minimum wage spurs growth. There simply isn't any empirical evidence at all for this viewpoint.

I think if you compared growth rates across countries to the tax per GDP of the country, you'd see pretty good correlation.  It'd be messy because as you note, there are lots of differences, but it'd be there.  It might be very slight if you could tease out the effects of anti-market policy.  Rich countries can afford a lot of taxes if they generally let markets work.

For low minimum wage spurring growth, I'm not sure many people think low minimum wages spur growth as much as they limit the harm to low skilled employees.  In the U.S., the federal minimum wage isn't really limiting in a lot of places, and there has been very little variance, although with cities like Seattle implementing a $15 minimum wage, we might finally be having enough of a difference in policy to see clear impacts.  (Even then, it's not the best comparison to look at very well off cities like Seattle; having a high minimum wage in St. Louis but not in Kansas City might be much more informative.)

But regardless, it seems like people arguing that the demand curve for labor doesn't slope downward should have the burden of proof for producing empirical evidence supporting their position, not the people arguing that the demand for labor curves downward just like it does for pretty much every other service and non-giffen goods.     
 




zolotiyeruki

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Re: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?
« Reply #101 on: August 02, 2017, 11:16:37 AM »
Why does everyone think that automation is somehow not going to happen if we keep the minimum wage where it is? Are we really that naive? Robots are really cheap compared to paying employees anything. They are basically legal slave labor. Plus, businesses don't deal with shrinkage from employee theft and employee error. The robots are coming no matter what we make the minimum wage.
Automation will come eventually to a lot of things, regardless of the labor cost.  The effect of minimum wage (and changes to it) is more a matter of when and how quickly that transition will happen, and how much economic value is lost in the meantime.  Allowing the market to make that transition on its own means it'll happen more gradually, with less market disruption.

For low minimum wage spurring growth, I'm not sure many people think low minimum wages spur growth as much as they limit the harm to low skilled employees. 

...

But regardless, it seems like people arguing that the demand curve for labor doesn't slope downward should have the burden of proof for producing empirical evidence supporting their position, not the people arguing that the demand for labor curves downward just like it does for pretty much every other service and non-giffen goods.
Well-put, on both points.

I hadn't heard of Giffen goods before.  It sounds like they're a bit of a unicorn--a few things have been claimed as Giffen goods, but there's a distinct lack of evidence for them existing.

libertarian4321

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Re: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?
« Reply #102 on: August 02, 2017, 11:25:00 AM »
To those that say "the fight for $15" will result in less workers, it's not true.

Here we have 4 new workers starting their careers, made possible by rising wages for low skill workers:



Happy, hard working employees who never need a break, always show up on time, never take a day off, and never take to the streets demanding ridiculous wages.

Enjoy that $15/hour wage...

dividendman

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Re: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?
« Reply #103 on: August 02, 2017, 11:34:57 AM »
To those that say "the fight for $15" will result in less workers, it's not true.

Here we have 4 new workers starting their careers, made possible by rising wages for low skill workers:

Happy, hard working employees who never need a break, always show up on time, never take a day off, and never take to the streets demanding ridiculous wages.

Enjoy that $15/hour wage...

Hrm.... I think that result is good.

WhiteTrashCash

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Re: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?
« Reply #104 on: August 02, 2017, 11:44:21 AM »
To those that say "the fight for $15" will result in less workers, it's not true.

Here we have 4 new workers starting their careers, made possible by rising wages for low skill workers:



Happy, hard working employees who never need a break, always show up on time, never take a day off, and never take to the streets demanding ridiculous wages.

Enjoy that $15/hour wage...

Why were you eating at McDonalds? Ew.

sokoloff

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Re: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?
« Reply #105 on: August 02, 2017, 11:56:14 AM »
I hadn't heard of Giffen goods before.  It sounds like they're a bit of a unicorn--a few things have been claimed as Giffen goods, but there's a distinct lack of evidence for them existing.
Somewhat related, might as well read about Veblen goods today as well (similar idea, opposite end of the price spectrum).

talltexan

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Re: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?
« Reply #106 on: August 04, 2017, 02:24:23 PM »
One of the famous examples of a Giffin good was potatoes during the Irish potatoe famine. You need it to be what economists call an "inferior good", which means that wealthy people will sub in something more expensive if they can afford it (meat is the expensive substitute for potatoes). It also needs to represent a substantial portion of the total household expenditures.

If you can get a perfect storm of price spike on an inferior good that a LOT of people have to buy because it's the cheap option, then, bam, upward-sloping demand curve.

ixtap

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Re: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?
« Reply #107 on: August 04, 2017, 02:32:19 PM »
One of the famous examples of a Giffin good was potatoes during the Irish potatoe famine. You need it to be what economists call an "inferior good", which means that wealthy people will sub in something more expensive if they can afford it (meat is the expensive substitute for potatoes). It also needs to represent a substantial portion of the total household expenditures.

If you can get a perfect storm of price spike on an inferior good that a LOT of people have to buy because it's the cheap option, then, bam, upward-sloping demand curve.

Sounds like corn/tortillas when larger shares of the corn market were diverted to ethanol.

Johnez

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Re: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?
« Reply #108 on: August 05, 2017, 10:49:11 PM »
Regarding mass automation, it'll happen.....eventually. It doesn't have a whole lot to do with minimum wage discussions. As I see it, it's like wondering if getting the iPhone 8 is a good idea when the iPhone 12 will probably have immersive reality, complete with telepathy and improved telekinesis. The tech is all there, witness the auto industry. There's a reason it is crawling forward instead of taking over however.

The UBI is what will be discussed once automation takes hold. When there are no (or very few) actual people making things, selling things,or even designing things-who's gonna buy things?

nnls

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Re: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?
« Reply #109 on: August 06, 2017, 12:12:17 AM »
Youth unemployment is high because they're unskilled, and with free trade, many of our unskilled jobs have gone overseas. We can't compete with Chinese living in dorms and getting $150 a month. Thus, youth unemployment is a problem with the structure of the economy: we don't make things any more. When manufacturing declines, youth employment declines.
Does a high minimum wage have any effect on the ability of these youth to get their first job where they can start developing skills?


I couldn't see anyone responding to this, but maybe I missed the reply.

Minimum wage doesnt apply to youth, I got my first job at 14 and 9 months (earliest I could get a job in my state at the time) I was only paid about $7 an hour, this went up on my fifteenth birthday and automatically went up every year on your birthday, so a higher minimum wage probably encourages people to employ youth as you don't have to pay them full minimum wage until they turn 21

bender

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Re: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?
« Reply #110 on: August 07, 2017, 10:50:45 AM »
In the US there is no scaled minimum wage with age.  Does it work well in AU?  I wonder if employers could use it to exploit younger workers (fire them when they age out of the minimum wage and replace with other young workers)?

Optimiser

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Re: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?
« Reply #111 on: August 07, 2017, 02:20:40 PM »
Regarding mass automation, it'll happen.....eventually. It doesn't have a whole lot to do with minimum wage discussions. As I see it, it's like wondering if getting the iPhone 8 is a good idea when the iPhone 12 will probably have immersive reality, complete with telepathy and improved telekinesis. The tech is all there, witness the auto industry. There's a reason it is crawling forward instead of taking over however.

The UBI is what will be discussed once automation takes hold. When there are no (or very few) actual people making things, selling things,or even designing things-who's gonna buy things?

I hope this is the case, however I worry that we will instead create a complex, inefficient, and expensive system that consists of expanding our current patchwork of existing social welfare programs, that could be real disaster.

WoodStache

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Re: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?
« Reply #112 on: August 07, 2017, 03:23:01 PM »
Why does everyone think that automation is somehow not going to happen if we keep the minimum wage where it is? Are we really that naive? Robots are really cheap compared to paying employees anything. They are basically legal slave labor. Plus, businesses don't deal with shrinkage from employee theft and employee error. The robots are coming no matter what we make the minimum wage.

In the meanwhile, as I've said before and as other people are saying on this thread, we are really sick and tired of having to basically pay half the wages for these corporations' workers through our taxes, because our politicians are owned by the corporations and refuse to force them to pay living wages.

Respectfully, I disagree with this. As someone said on the first page, it is society that has placed this value and definition of a suitable standard of living. I don't see it as a corporations responsibility to pay that at all.

That said, I think the minimum wage argument in its entirety is largely a game of political points. I haven't looked up the stats in a while, but something like half of the minimum wage earners are young (high school/college, exactly who you'd think would have minimum wage) and additionally half of them are in service industries which often make additional money in the form of tips. The number of able bodied 25+ year old adults working for minimum wage in this country is very small.

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?
« Reply #113 on: August 07, 2017, 03:55:48 PM »
I hope this is the case, however I worry that we will instead create a complex, inefficient, and expensive system that consists of expanding our current patchwork of existing social welfare programs, that could be real disaster.
The concept of UBI looks good on the surface, but as with most social programs, it is fraught with issues once you actually dig into the details.  CoL differentials, what constitutes a livable minimum, preventing hedonic adaptation from creating a never-ending cycle of people wanting to raise it, effects on inflation, how to fund it, how to discourage abuse, how to make sure the funds are actually used for necessities (see: EBT fraud/misuse), how to distinguish between those who can't work vs those who won't work, etc.  It gets really messy.

I'm not saying that it can't work in some cases.  I'm just very skeptical that it can work in a society as culturally diverse as the US.  We already have a whole raft of welfare programs (Section 8 housing, EBT, SNAP, free school lunches, subsidized public transit, medicaid, utility assistance programs, free job training, universal education, and EIC, and that's just off the top of my head.  If someone wants to pull themselves out of poverty, it's certainly possible.  Some people choose that path.  And some people, due to physical or mental limitations, can't follow that path.  But it's clear that a significant number of people who could choose that path instead decide not to.  And it seems that no social welfare program can change that.

Respectfully, I disagree with this. As someone said on the first page, it is society that has placed this value and definition of a suitable standard of living. I don't see it as a corporations responsibility to pay that at all.
I'd take it one step further:  it is a subset of our society that has picked (for example) $15/hour as a livable wage.

sokoloff

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Re: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?
« Reply #114 on: August 07, 2017, 04:00:30 PM »
I hope this is the case, however I worry that we will instead create a complex, inefficient, and expensive system that consists of expanding our current patchwork of existing social welfare programs, that could be real disaster.
The concept of UBI looks good on the surface, but as with most social programs, it is fraught with issues once you actually dig into the details.  CoL differentials, what constitutes a livable minimum, preventing hedonic adaptation from creating a never-ending cycle of people wanting to raise it, effects on inflation, how to fund it, how to discourage abuse, how to make sure the funds are actually used for necessities (see: EBT fraud/misuse), how to distinguish between those who can't work vs those who won't work, etc.  It gets really messy.
A significant beauty of UBI is the "U"-that it's universal. There's no need to determine can't work vs won't work; all you need to do is determine "alive [and perhaps citizen] vs not". Everyone gets it.

You blow yours on pop rocks and bubble gum? Well, you'll get next month's payment next month; figure it out until then...

If you means test it, it's not UBI.

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?
« Reply #115 on: August 07, 2017, 04:05:10 PM »
The concept of UBI looks good on the surface, but as with most social programs, it is fraught with issues once you actually dig into the details.  CoL differentials, what constitutes a livable minimum, preventing hedonic adaptation from creating a never-ending cycle of people wanting to raise it, effects on inflation, how to fund it, how to discourage abuse, how to make sure the funds are actually used for necessities (see: EBT fraud/misuse), how to distinguish between those who can't work vs those who won't work, etc.  It gets really messy.
A significant beauty of UBI is the "U"-that it's universal. There's no need to determine can't work vs won't work; all you need to do is determine "alive [and perhaps citizen] vs not". Everyone gets it.

You blow yours on pop rocks and bubble gum? Well, you'll get next month's payment next month; figure it out until then...

If you means test it, it's not UBI.
You're correct in theory.  But uttering anything that can be interpreted as "suck it up, buttercup, you got yourself into this mess" is politically ...unwise, while trumpeting the need to help the poor (with Other People's Money) appears to be eternally popular.

nnls

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Re: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?
« Reply #116 on: August 07, 2017, 04:13:25 PM »
In the US there is no scaled minimum wage with age.  Does it work well in AU?  I wonder if employers could use it to exploit younger workers (fire them when they age out of the minimum wage and replace with other young workers)?

I am sure this does happen, but the jobs I had as a teenager were generally after school retail or fast food jobs. The younger people did get preference for these shifts as they were cheaper. And my first office job was specifically advertised as "office junior", once i had been there for a few years I was getting paid more but also had more experience.

None of my friends ever complained about loosing shifts or jobs when they became too old, but this is obviously only my experience so other people may have different stories. But I kinda felt that by the time you were old enough to be paid full wage you had often moved on from the job or had more availability as you weren't at school so more shifts opened up to you 

Kyle Schuant

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Re: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?
« Reply #117 on: August 09, 2017, 05:04:13 AM »
In the US there is no scaled minimum wage with age.  Does it work well in AU?  I wonder if employers could use it to exploit younger workers (fire them when they age out of the minimum wage and replace with other young workers)?
Yes, that does happen. However, the sorts of jobs available to unskilled youths - McDs, shelf-stacker at a supermarket, etc - are ones they tend to do only as part-time while at school or early university years. A few go on to be managers, but the majority don't actually want to still be there at 25 years old.


The old-style lower wage jobs in factories, mines and on farms, etc, which some people might want to do for years or decades - they just don't exist as much. It's just the retail and hospitality parts of the service sector.


In practice those getting youth wages view it as a sort of "rite of passage" thing. You do it while studying so you can get a "real" job. So while they do get fired for younger ones, usually they don't need to be, since they just leave. And even without that, there's a huge turnover of staff, since 15-18 year olds tend not to be super-motivated and passionate about anything, let alone stacking a shelf.
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talltexan

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Re: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?
« Reply #118 on: August 09, 2017, 11:16:59 AM »
I'm really intrigued by the idea that having a UBI might encourage higher fertility rates. Is anyone aware of that being an outcome in the studies that are out there?

bender

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Re: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?
« Reply #119 on: August 09, 2017, 01:02:04 PM »
I'm really intrigued by the idea that having a UBI might encourage higher fertility rates. Is anyone aware of that being an outcome in the studies that are out there?

I think it will lead to LOWER fertility rates.  In extremely poor regions (Africa), when people were given better healthcare and income, they actually have fewer children. 

https://blogs.unicef.org/evidence-for-action/evidence-over-ideology-giving-unconditional-cash-in-africa/
From the article:
Quote
Policymakers love to suggest that unconditional cash transfers, particularly those targeted to families with children will cause an increase in fertility as families try to gain eligibility for benefits. This is not true. The Transfer Project has found no evidence of increases in fertility—in fact in two countries (Kenya and South Africa), it was found that cash transfers actually decreased early pregnancy among young women and adolescent girls. Let us not assume that giving support to poor households will result in the next baby boom.

Even in the US, people with higher incomes tend to have fewer children.

« Last Edit: August 09, 2017, 01:05:14 PM by bender »

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?
« Reply #120 on: August 09, 2017, 02:13:21 PM »
I'm really intrigued by the idea that having a UBI might encourage higher fertility rates. Is anyone aware of that being an outcome in the studies that are out there?

I think it will lead to LOWER fertility rates.  In extremely poor regions (Africa), when people were given better healthcare and income, they actually have fewer children. 

https://blogs.unicef.org/evidence-for-action/evidence-over-ideology-giving-unconditional-cash-in-africa/
From the article:
Quote
Policymakers love to suggest that unconditional cash transfers, particularly those targeted to families with children will cause an increase in fertility as families try to gain eligibility for benefits. This is not true. The Transfer Project has found no evidence of increases in fertility—in fact in two countries (Kenya and South Africa), it was found that cash transfers actually decreased early pregnancy among young women and adolescent girls. Let us not assume that giving support to poor households will result in the next baby boom.

Even in the US, people with higher incomes tend to have fewer children.
That sounds like an apples-to-oranges comparison, though.  Different cultures, different levels of diversity, correlation vs causation, etc.

bender

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Re: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?
« Reply #121 on: August 09, 2017, 02:24:58 PM »
Appears to be correlated in the US as well, even though we're all rich when compared to 3rd world countries.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/241530/birth-rate-by-family-income-in-the-us/


Prairie Stash

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Re: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?
« Reply #122 on: August 10, 2017, 09:07:28 AM »
To those that say "the fight for $15" will result in less workers, it's not true.

Here we have 4 new workers starting their careers, made possible by rising wages for low skill workers:



Happy, hard working employees who never need a break, always show up on time, never take a day off, and never take to the streets demanding ridiculous wages.

Enjoy that $15/hour wage...
What country is this from? Silly Americans with their center of the universe syndrome. This could be from Canada, Germany, Australia, Japan, Korea or anywhere. Your minimum wage laws have very little effect on automation...if it doesn't start in the USA it'll be imported from Canada where we already have these stations.

So what if the wage is $15 or $5 in the USA, in other countries we'll develop the automation and the jobs to support, build and code the machines, then we'll sell them into the American market. Keep your low minimum wage, its better for Canada if you do :) You can have the low tech and we'll do the high tech jobs, either way these machines are replacing your workers.

Obviously I'm exaggerating some about the high tech jobs leaving the USA, I'm trying to highlight that this is happening outside of the USA and your local wages have no bearing on it.


Optimiser

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Re: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?
« Reply #123 on: August 10, 2017, 09:19:52 AM »
I agree that the automation is inevitable, but that doesn't mean that wages don't have some effect on how quickly it takes place.  It might make sense for McDonalds to put in self ordering kiosks even at today's wages, but it probably isn't cost effective for Mom and Pop's Burger Joint. However, there is some level of minimum wage, could be $15/hour could be more or less, where even a small independent shop is going to find a way to reduce their labor force.

dividendman

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Re: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?
« Reply #124 on: August 10, 2017, 11:40:41 AM »
To those that say "the fight for $15" will result in less workers, it's not true.

Here we have 4 new workers starting their careers, made possible by rising wages for low skill workers:



Happy, hard working employees who never need a break, always show up on time, never take a day off, and never take to the streets demanding ridiculous wages.

Enjoy that $15/hour wage...
What country is this from? Silly Americans with their center of the universe syndrome. This could be from Canada, Germany, Australia, Japan, Korea or anywhere.


Well, it's probably not from Germany, Japan or Korea... since they don't tend to use English.

If we look at the machines we can see the Interac logo - this is a Canadian only thing. So my guess is it's from Canada.
« Last Edit: August 10, 2017, 11:46:48 AM by dividendman »

Prairie Stash

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Re: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?
« Reply #125 on: August 10, 2017, 12:20:04 PM »

What country is this from? Silly Americans with their center of the universe syndrome. This could be from Canada, Germany, Australia, Japan, Korea or anywhere.


Well, it's probably not from Germany, Japan or Korea... since they don't tend to use English.

If we look at the machines we can see the Interac logo - this is a Canadian only thing. So my guess is it's from Canada.
[/quote]
Good eye, I was just randomly saying countries to illustrate a point; that automation isn't related to the minimum wage in the USA.

Fair warning Americans, Canadians are coming for your jobs.

omachi

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Re: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?
« Reply #126 on: August 10, 2017, 12:20:34 PM »
What country is this from? Silly Americans with their center of the universe syndrome. This could be from Canada, Germany, Australia, Japan, Korea or anywhere. Your minimum wage laws have very little effect on automation...if it doesn't start in the USA it'll be imported from Canada where we already have these stations.

So what if the wage is $15 or $5 in the USA, in other countries we'll develop the automation and the jobs to support, build and code the machines, then we'll sell them into the American market. Keep your low minimum wage, its better for Canada if you do :) You can have the low tech and we'll do the high tech jobs, either way these machines are replacing your workers.

Obviously I'm exaggerating some about the high tech jobs leaving the USA, I'm trying to highlight that this is happening outside of the USA and your local wages have no bearing on it.

That raises an interesting question. Will the minimum wage driving labor prices up or the massive focus on STEM jobs in the US driving automation costs down result in more job losses? They'll obviously work together nicely to find a price in the middle of where the costs are now. I'd guess the STEM focus, since it would take a lot of wage growth to make automating many jobs attractive now. Once automation costs start dropping, they'll probably only start dropping faster. You can buy a Raspberry Pi for $20 today that in every way beats the pants off a computer from 30 years ago that cost $3000 in 80s money. With ever more people working on it, think we'll see a similar curve for automation?

And as Prairie Stash points out, those darned Canadians will do it to us if we don't do it ourselves.

bender

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Re: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?
« Reply #127 on: August 10, 2017, 07:18:58 PM »
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.businessinsider.com/what-self-serve-kiosks-at-mcdonalds-mean-for-cashiers-2017-6

McDonalds is rolling these out in 2500 stores, but don't worry it won't replace those jobs they say!

How can they even say this.  They are moving people to other areas like table service?  Don't worry that will fail then those people will be out of work - but it's totally not because of the kiosks. 

Automated ordering via kiosk or smartphone app makes a lot is sense.  It's almost as easy as turning the cash register around to face the customer!

FINate

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Re: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?
« Reply #128 on: August 12, 2017, 11:12:41 AM »
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.businessinsider.com/what-self-serve-kiosks-at-mcdonalds-mean-for-cashiers-2017-6

McDonalds is rolling these out in 2500 stores, but don't worry it won't replace those jobs they say!

How can they even say this.  They are moving people to other areas like table service?  Don't worry that will fail then those people will be out of work - but it's totally not because of the kiosks. 

Automated ordering via kiosk or smartphone app makes a lot is sense.  It's almost as easy as turning the cash register around to face the customer!

Standard corporate operating procedure. Saying that you're replacing workers with automation doesn't play well, bad PR. And you certainly don't blame it (publicly) on minimum wage increases. No, you state the change in positive terms such as using technology to augment the customer experience. Adding not subtracting. Once kiosks are fully rolled out and the news cycle has moved on then quietly start slashing those table service jobs ("surveys found they were not valued" or whatever).

Kyle Schuant

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Re: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?
« Reply #129 on: August 14, 2017, 04:09:56 AM »
I think if you compared growth rates across countries to the tax per GDP of the country, you'd see pretty good correlation. [...]  Rich countries can afford a lot of taxes if they generally let markets work.
This makes intuitive sense, but unfortunately is not correct. I just pulled the data from wikipedia, they have a list of countries by govt tax as share of GDP and one of growth rates. Some countries don't appear in both, eg DPRK has 1% growth, supposedly, but their taxes are unknown; and growth rates of small territories like US Virgin Islands are reported, though their tax as a share of their product is not reported. But these are usually just islands and things so won't change the overall picture much at all.

You can copy and paste and make a chart in excel, you'll see no trends whatsoever. For example, China and India we can say are comparable countries - high population, both in Asia, both industrialising - China takes 10% more of the GDP but ends up with the same growth rate as India. NZ takes more of GDP than Australia and has higher growth rate. Bahrain takes 4.8% and has 4% growth, while UAE takes 1.4% and has 2.7% growth. Bulgaria has 27.8 and 3.4, Russia has 19.8 and is in recession.

There are just so many other factors. You don't even see trends in looking at one country, since it's common for governments to cut taxes and raise spending during recessions, in an attempt to break out of the recession - which doesn't always work, since increasing government debt has other flow-on effects, but even when it does work, they find themselves unable to raise taxes and drop spending later.

There's just too many factors.

   Tax   Growth
Afghanistan   6.4   3.9
Albania   22.9   3
Algeria   7.7   4.2
Angola   5.7   0
Argentina   37.2   -2.3
Armenia   22   0.2
Australia   25.8   2.5
Austria   43.4   1.5
Azerbaijan   17.8   0
Bahrain   4.8   4
Bangladesh   8.5   5.5
Belarus   24.2   -3
Belgium   47.9   1.2
Belize   21.6   3.8
Bolivia   27   4.1
Bosnia   41.2   3
Botswana   35.2   1.9
Brazil   34.4   -3.6
Bulgaria   27.8   3.4
Burma   4.9   5.5
Burundi   17.4   -7.2
Cambodia   8   5.5
Cameroon   18.2   4.4
Canada   32.2   1.4
CapeVerde   23   1.9
Chad   4.2   -6.4
Chile   21   1.6
China PR   28.1   6.7
Colombia   16.1   2
Comoros   12   1
CongoDR   13.2   2.4
Congo,Rep   5.9   -2.7
CostaRica   21   3.8
Côted'Ivoire   15.3   8.5
Croatia   36.7   2.9
Cuba   44.8   1.3
Cyprus   39.2   2.8
CzechRepublic   36.3   2.4
Denmark   50.8   1.1
Djibouti   20   3.7
Dominica   30.3   3.4
DominicanRepublic   12   7
EastTimor   61.5   5.5
Ecuador   13.2   -2.2
Egypt   15.8   4.3
ElSalvador   13.3   3.8
EquatorialGuinea   1.7   -10.2
Estonia   32.3   1.6
Ethiopia   11.6   8
FederatedStatesofMicronesia   12.3   5.5
Fiji   21.8   5.5
Finland   43.6   1.4
France   47.9   1.2
Gabon   10.3   2.3
Georgia   21.7   2.7
Germany   40.6   1.8
Ghana   20.8   4
Greece   39   0
Guatemala   11.9   3.8
Guinea   8.2   0
Guinea-Bissau   11.5   5.4
Guyana   31.9   -2.7
Haiti   9.4   3.4
Honduras   15.6   3.8
HongKong   13   2
Hungary   39.1   2
Iceland   40.4   7.2
India   17.7   6.8
Indonesia   12   5
Iran   6.1   6.5
Ireland   30.8   5.2
Israel   36.8   4
Italy   43.5   0.9
Jamaica   27.2   1.1
Japan   28.3   1
Jordan   21.1   2.1
Kazakhstan   26.8   1.1
Kenya   18.4   6
Korea,South   26.8   2.8
Kuwait   1.5   2.5
Kyrgyzstan   21.4   2
Laos   10.8   7.6
Latvia   30.4   2
Lebanon   14.4   1
Lesotho   42.9   1.9
Liberia   13.2   0.9
Libya   2.7   -6.1
Lithuania   20.9   2.3
Luxembourg   36.5   4
Macau,China   20.1   -4
Macedonia   29.3   3
Madagascar   10.7   4.1
Malawi   20.7   5.4
Malaysia   15.5   4.2
Mali   15.3   5.4
Malta   35.2   5
Mauritania   15.4   3.7
Mauritius   19   1.9
Mexico   19.7   2.3
Moldova   33.8   4
Mongolia   33.8   5.5
Montenegro   28   3
Morocco   22.3   1.5
Namibia   28.8   1.9
Nepal   10.9   7.7
Netherlands   39.8   2.1
NewZealand   34.5   4
Nicaragua   17.8   3.8
Nigeria   6.1   -1.5
Norway   43.6   1
Oman   2   4
Pakistan   16.8   2.3
Panama   10.6   5.5
PapuaNewGuinea   24.5   5.4
Paraguay   12   4.1
Peru   18   3.9
Philippines   14.4   6.8
Poland   33.8   2.8
Portugal   37   1.4
Qatar   2.2   2.7
Romania   27.7   4.8
Russia   19.5   -0.2
Rwanda   14.1   5.4
SaintLucia   23.1   3.8
SaintVincentandtheGrenadines   26.5   3.4
Samoa   25.5   5.5
SãoToméandPríncipe   17.4   5.4
SaudiArabia   5.3   1.4
Senegal   19.2   6.6
Serbia   34.1   2.8
Seychelles   32   1.9
SierraLeone   10.5   -23.9
Singapore   14.2   2
Slovakia   29.5   3.2
Slovenia   39.3   2.5
SolomonIslands   24.7   5.5
SouthAfrica   26.9   0.3
Spain   37.3   3.2
SriLanka   11.6   4.3
Sudan   6.3   1.5
Suriname   22.1   -2.7
Swaziland   39.8   1.9
Sweden   45.8   3.3
Switzerland   29.4   1.3
Syria   10.7   -9.9
Tajikistan   16.5   6.9
Tanzania   12   6.6
Thailand   17   3.2
TheGambia   18.9   5.4
Togo   15.5   5.4
Tonga   27   5.5
TrinidadandTobago   28   3.4
Tunisia   14.9   1
Turkey   24.9   2.9
Turkmenistan   20.2   6.2
Uganda   12.6   4.7
Ukraine   28.1   2.3
UnitedArabEmirates   1.4   2.7
UnitedKingdom   34.4   1.8
UnitedStates   26   1.6
Uruguay   23.1   1.4
Uzbekistan   21   7.8
Vanuatu   17.8   -2
Venezuela   25   -18
Vietnam   13.8   6.4
Yemen   7.1   -28.1
Zambia   16.1   3
Zimbabwe   27.2   5.4
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dilinger

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Re: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?
« Reply #130 on: December 13, 2017, 08:02:02 PM »
"Socialist hellhole of Seattle leads nation in small business job growth"
https://twitter.com/ByRosenberg/status/940825194884628481

Rosenberg is a Seattle Times reporter.  That minimum wage increase is destroying our fair city!

Kyle Schuant

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Re: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?
« Reply #131 on: December 13, 2017, 08:35:14 PM »
Here we have 4 new workers starting their careers, made possible by rising wages for low skill workers:
People just like technological solutions, the cost hasn't much to do with it. Here in Melbourne, we've had a lot of ticketing systems over the years since we decided to get rid of tram and train conductors. The most recent is the Myki card system, basically a debit card which you can only pay for public transport tickets with. For some reason it cost $1.5 billion. At $50k each, this could have paid for 1,000 conductors (about twice as many as needed) for 30 years - and the system won't last 30 years, that's for sure.

A year ago they renewed the 7 year contract for another $700 million. So that's another 500 people for 30 years.

People just think that high tech is good, even if it's MORE expensive. Wages are irrelevant, really, machines will replace humans wherever possible cos machines are kew1, man. This is after all the principle of the Mac Tax. "Yes you should pay twice as much, because it's kew1!!!"
« Last Edit: December 13, 2017, 08:40:44 PM by Kyle Schuant »
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bender

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Re: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?
« Reply #132 on: December 13, 2017, 11:31:05 PM »
How did you arrive at 500 humans replaced by Myki?  This article shows 30-50k rail employees.  I didn't find anything specific on those displaced by the 1.5B myki program, so hard to guess.  500 seems quite low.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rail_transport_in_Australia#

Also 50k seems low for the cost of an employee.  I found the average salary of 75k, and you need to consider the total burdened cost including all benefits (including pensions).  100k is probably more reasonable with all factors considered?

So if I pick different numbers, say 2500 heads at 100k annual cost.  That's 250M annually, and only 6 years to reach 1.5B program cost.

I generally think that tech is not adopted until it is cost competitive.  Well that's almost certainly the case in private industry where the bottom line drives decisions.  Governments aren't always efficient with taxpayer funds...

Chesleygirl

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Re: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?
« Reply #133 on: December 14, 2017, 12:03:52 PM »
I think it's pointless to raise minimum wage for fast food workers. Most of those jobs are soon going to be automated, so they'll be dispensed with altogether.

I do wonder what will happen to the fast growing elderly population if nurse aides and home health aides aren't paid at least $15 an hour. It's going to get ugly. I used to work in nursing homes, and they beg for CNAs to work there, but won't pay them more than $10 an hour.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?
« Reply #134 on: December 14, 2017, 03:35:08 PM »
How did you arrive at 500 humans replaced by Myki?  This article shows 30-50k rail employees.
Rail employees nationally, for public transport, freight, maintenance, everything. You didn't even follow the links in your own article you showed us:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metro_Trains_Melbourne

"Metro Trains Melbourne is also responsible for 218 railway stations and employs a workforce of 3,500 rail professionals including train drivers, mechanical and electrical engineers, network operations specialists and customer service representatives."

There are 218 stations. Most are staffed already; around 1985, Flinder Street Station had 3 guys at windows, 3 guys at the gates, and a guy who came out and changed the clocks to show the next train on each line, 7 people at peak times; now they have 1 guy at the window, 1 guy sitting behind a computer changing the times on the clocks, 2 groups of 4 ticket inspectors, 1 person on each of 8 platforms making announcements at peak times, and so on - they employ more people with Myki and other electronic systems than they did before that. But then, some suburban stations are unstaffed, and others are only staffed for part of the day.


Of course, some staff aren't counted in the wiki. Unstaffed stations made people feel insecure (crime rates, including crime on railways, have dropped, but people feel insecure), the government decided to put cops on the train lines. The cops didn't want to do it, so the government hired Protective Services Officers (formerly just court and state building security guys), with lower standards than VicPol. They have two per train station, plus admin staff etc, so that's 500 staff just there - they're part of the cost of the train network, but they don't count. $80 million a year cost there.

Any calculations of cost vs Myki must allow for not only the original $1,500 million cost, but the $700 million for the next 7 years, and so on.

Myki is a Melbourne-only system, and like all technological solutions was supposed to replace people. However, as they found when they first brought in fancy ticketing systems back in the 90s, those old conductors they fired, many of them had to be re-hired as ticket inspectors. A conductor notices you jump a turnstile, a ticketing machine doesn't. So they have ticket inspectors.


The ticket inspectors and "customer service representatives" go back to being conductors. We don't need even half as many PSOs if the stations are staffed. Allowing an extra 2 employees per station on average, plus 10-20% more to allow for sick and holiday leave, training and so on, gets us around 500 people.

So we'd only need 500 more public transport workers in Melbourne than we already have, and we could go back to having staff at every station from first train to last, and people on platforms, etc.


Now, we won't do that, of course. Because of sunk cost fallacies and no government can take police off the streets, the timid middle class won't stand for it. But the point is: technology here has not saved us money and made people unemployed, it's actually cost us a lot, lot more - and lead to a lot, lot more employment. Usually it's educated jobs, but not always - cf PSOs.

Quote
I generally think that tech is not adopted until it is cost competitive.  Well that's almost certainly the case in private industry where the bottom line drives decisions.
You're on a discussion forum which is founded on the premise that most people just piss away their money, and you are asserting that tech is adopted rationally?

Technology does not replace people or reduce costs. It changes jobs and often means more education is needed. Despite going from typewriters to photocopiers and personal computers, we have more people working in offices than ever before; but instead of just going to Secretarial College, they have to do a Bachelors in something. So the universities have to expand to accommodate more students. And those students graduate with a student loan debt, so they demand higher salaries. And the computers cost money, and take power, and require more of the airconditioning, and people have to set the computers up and maintain them with their frequent breakdowns.

So in the end, the office with computers costs a lot more to run than did the office with typewriters. The people edged out are those unable or unwilling to get an education. There are indeed losers in this game of social change - but it's not because of minimum wage, it's because we think technology is cool, man.
« Last Edit: December 14, 2017, 03:59:02 PM by Kyle Schuant »
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bender

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Re: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?
« Reply #135 on: December 15, 2017, 10:40:38 AM »
I think you've ignored the productivity gains in your typewriter vs photocopier discussion.

FINate

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libertarian4321

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Re: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?
« Reply #137 on: December 17, 2017, 05:10:29 AM »
To those that say "the fight for $15" will result in less workers, it's not true.

Here we have 4 new workers starting their careers, made possible by rising wages for low skill workers:



Happy, hard working employees who never need a break, always show up on time, never take a day off, and never take to the streets demanding ridiculous wages.

Enjoy that $15/hour wage...
What country is this from? Silly Americans with their center of the universe syndrome. This could be from Canada, Germany, Australia, Japan, Korea or anywhere.


Well, it's probably not from Germany, Japan or Korea... since they don't tend to use English.

If we look at the machines we can see the Interac logo - this is a Canadian only thing. So my guess is it's from Canada.

That photo was old.

I recently traveled from Texas, to my home state (or the state I escaped, if you prefer), and saw a lot of these new "employees."  Turns out the great state of NY, in it's continuing effort toward over taxation, over regulation, and economic failure, jacked up the minimum wage well above the Federal level.

That's great news for the companies that make robo-order takers.

The ones I experienced were much smaller than the ones in the photo.

Worked like a charm.  The new employees never bitched.  Never moaned.  Never walked off the job.  Never demanded a break from their high pressure job.  And my order actually was done right.

FWIW, I've worked plenty of minimum wage jobs in my life.  That's the reason I don't work for min wage now....

Chesleygirl

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Re: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?
« Reply #138 on: December 17, 2017, 09:21:30 AM »

That's great news for the companies that make robo-order takers.

The ones I experienced were much smaller than the ones in the photo.

Worked like a charm.  The new employees never bitched.  Never moaned.  Never walked off the job.  Never demanded a break from their high pressure job.  And my order actually was done right.

FWIW, I've worked plenty of minimum wage jobs in my life.  That's the reason I don't work for min wage now....

This automated ordering system should have been done a long time ago.  I always felt sad watching older adults take these jobs away from teenagers who needed them. Now these adults will have to learn a real skill to work.

Kyle Schuant

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Re: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?
« Reply #139 on: December 17, 2017, 04:43:38 PM »
I think you've ignored the productivity gains in your typewriter vs photocopier discussion.
If there's so much more productivity, why are more people employed in offices than ever? Farming is more productive, so it now employs less people. Manufacturing is more productive, so it now employs less people. Yet you say offices are more productive, and they employ more people? Really?

It's like, why did the war in Iraq cost more than the war in Vietnam, even though less troops were used and less bombs dropped? It just costs more to lose a war than it used to. Likewise, pushing paper around costs more than it used to.
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zolotiyeruki

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Re: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?
« Reply #140 on: December 17, 2017, 05:24:11 PM »
I think you've ignored the productivity gains in your typewriter vs photocopier discussion.
If there's so much more productivity, why are more people employed in offices than ever? Farming is more productive, so it now employs less people. Manufacturing is more productive, so it now employs less people. Yet you say offices are more productive, and they employ more people? Really?

It's like, why did the war in Iraq cost more than the war in Vietnam, even though less troops were used and less bombs dropped? It just costs more to lose a war than it used to. Likewise, pushing paper around costs more than it used to.
A smaller percentage of folks' income is now spent on food, so they consume more of other goods/services/etc.  People "consume" more things nowadays that are produced by people who work in offices (and have other people in offices supporting them).  Electronics, apps, web sites, etc.

Raj

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Re: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?
« Reply #141 on: December 18, 2017, 08:29:56 AM »
Speaking as someone currently being paid near minimum wage I'd be happy about an increase.

But whenever I think about it from a macro perspective it becomes clear raising the minimum wage is not a good solution as supply and demand will cause their to be less jobs making it a zero sum game at best. This also makes it harder for teenagers and newly graduates to get jobs as they need to do more to earn the higher income but without jobs they can't get experience.
I'm already experiencing something similar in the accounting industry where I'm going to have to volunteer for awhile simply to get my foot into the door and get some experience.

In addition I think it's up to us and the government to support people who can't make enough to live rather than forcing companies to pay more.

As base level tasks become more and more monetized, putting more focus on welfare will become required, but before we reach that stage we will have to reexamine how we treat people on Welfare in our society, as currently we treat them rather poorly and on an emotional level I think less of them despite knowing on an intellectual level its often not their fault.

Sadly this view of welfare is for the week is something commonly shared, many poor people even share the belief and are proud that they haven't "sold out" to the government.

bender

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Re: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?
« Reply #142 on: December 18, 2017, 09:57:05 AM »
I think you've ignored the productivity gains in your typewriter vs photocopier discussion.
If there's so much more productivity, why are more people employed in offices than ever? Farming is more productive, so it now employs less people. Manufacturing is more productive, so it now employs less people. Yet you say offices are more productive, and they employ more people? Really?

It's like, why did the war in Iraq cost more than the war in Vietnam, even though less troops were used and less bombs dropped? It just costs more to lose a war than it used to. Likewise, pushing paper around costs more than it used to.

One way productivity gains can be measured by looking at the Real GDP over time (US example below).
http://www.multpl.com/us-real-gdp-per-capita/table/by-year

In the US the numbers indicate that productivity has more than doubled over the last 50 years.  I think technology has a lot to do with those gains.



Kyle Schuant

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Re: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?
« Reply #143 on: December 30, 2017, 03:03:58 PM »
Speaking as someone currently being paid near minimum wage I'd be happy about an increase.

But whenever I think about it from a macro perspective it becomes clear raising the minimum wage is not a good solution as supply and demand will cause their to be less jobs making it a zero sum game at best.
Once again: the experience of Australia, with double the US minimum wage, shows that this is not the case. A higher minimum wage means higher costs for employers, but it also means more money for people to spend on things those businesses produce.


If higher wages are a zero-sum game, then everyone should be on minimum wage, since it won't make any difference, right? Why is a raise for the guy on $100,000 good for the economy, but a raise for the guy on $20,000 bad for it?
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zolotiyeruki

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Re: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?
« Reply #144 on: December 30, 2017, 03:12:59 PM »
If higher wages are a zero-sum game, then everyone should be on minimum wage, since it won't make any difference, right? Why is a raise for the guy on $100,000 good for the economy, but a raise for the guy on $20,000 bad for it?
The argument is that a business is voluntarily giving the raise to the $100k employee, because it makes business sense to do so--either the employee brings that much value, or it provides an incentive to employees to be more productive, etc.  For the $20k employee, the difference is that raising the minimum wage forces the business to spend money in a way that doesn't benefit the business.  You're forcing a transfer of value without any reciprocal benefit.

WhiteTrashCash

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Re: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?
« Reply #145 on: December 30, 2017, 08:41:04 PM »
I know I've touched on this before, but laissez faire free market economics frequently lead to terrible consequences for societies. If we let the "markets" decide what people should be paid, then we'd still have workers being paid company scrip so they could pay the rent on their company housing like what we had during the horrors of the Gilded Age.

The Fake Cheap

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Re: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?
« Reply #146 on: January 03, 2018, 07:40:30 PM »
I think my big issue with minimum wage is that for most people, minimum wage isn't the wage you make your entire life.  Most people start there and work up.  If you've spent the last 15 years working for minimum wage, it's you, not the system, I'm sorry. 

That being said I think that it is a bit of a two way street, owners do need to pay employees a decent wage, without having to cut back on other perks like the paid breaks and employer paid benefits, especially at a profitable spot like this Tim Horton's:  http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/tim-horton-s-tims-timmies-doubledouble-minimum-wage-ontario-kathleen-wynne-labour-1.4470215


talltexan

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Re: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?
« Reply #147 on: January 04, 2018, 12:13:56 PM »
I know I've touched on this before, but laissez faire free market economics frequently lead to terrible consequences for societies. If we let the "markets" decide what people should be paid, then we'd still have workers being paid company scrip so they could pay the rent on their company housing like what we had during the horrors of the Gilded Age.

Yes, letting markets operate freely sometimes has terrible consequences, but sometimes it also has good results. It's not any more reasonable to characterize anti-minimum wage arguments in this way than it is to claim that raising the minimum wage to $15/hour will leave us on the doorstep of Venezuelan catastrophe.

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?
« Reply #148 on: January 04, 2018, 01:46:20 PM »
I know I've touched on this before, but laissez faire free market economics frequently lead to terrible consequences for societies. If we let the "markets" decide what people should be paid, then we'd still have workers being paid company scrip so they could pay the rent on their company housing like what we had during the horrors of the Gilded Age.
Certainly a totally free market has its problems.  Monopolies are one such problem.  Company scrip was one such problem in the past.  At the same time, however, we live in an age of unprecedented availability of information, and practices like that are much harder to pull off.  Witness, for example, all the flak Amazon got a few years back for its "churn and burn" approach to employees.

Certainly, labor laws have helped shape cultural expectations of worker conditions to the benefit of workers.  But minimum wage laws are a bit different from, say, basic safety regulations, because they literally outlaw a certain type of job, and prevent people from taking those jobs even if they fully understand that their pay is low.

thesvenster

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Re: Thoughts on Minimum Wage?
« Reply #149 on: January 15, 2018, 05:58:37 PM »
I know I've touched on this before, but laissez faire free market economics frequently lead to terrible consequences for societies. If we let the "markets" decide what people should be paid, then we'd still have workers being paid company scrip so they could pay the rent on their company housing like what we had during the horrors of the Gilded Age.
Certainly a totally free market has its problems.  Monopolies are one such problem.  Company scrip was one such problem in the past.  At the same time, however, we live in an age of unprecedented availability of information, and practices like that are much harder to pull off.  Witness, for example, all the flak Amazon got a few years back for its "churn and burn" approach to employees.

Certainly, labor laws have helped shape cultural expectations of worker conditions to the benefit of workers.  But minimum wage laws are a bit different from, say, basic safety regulations, because they literally outlaw a certain type of job, and prevent people from taking those jobs even if they fully understand that their pay is low.

Low wages can really hold a society back because cheap labor availability makes technological advancement unnecessary. Some historians theorize that the Romans or Chinese would have went much farther technologically, but never had an incentive to due to the wide availability of slaves.