Author Topic: πNYT - New Math for Retirees and the 4% Withdrawal Rule  (Read 2819 times)

hollyluja

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πNYT - New Math for Retirees and the 4% Withdrawal Rule
« on: May 08, 2015, 10:14:56 PM »
NYT Article

starts off ok, points out that 4% rule may not apply in a world of secular stagnation.  Then it ends up saying you may be able to take as much as 6.5%!  Can anyone make sense of this?

phillyvalue

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Re: πNYT - New Math for Retirees and the 4% Withdrawal Rule
« Reply #1 on: May 09, 2015, 06:31:23 PM »
The point of the article is that there is a great degree of uncertainty regarding what a "safe" withdrawal rate is, and experts disagree on what rate may be safe or what system to use to plan your spending going forward. Thus, the discussion of how 4% may not be OK, but under other prediction systems a higher number may even be safe.

The takeaway being, according to the article, that you should sit down with an advisor before retiring to plan out a strategy. Of course, my counter to that is that *nobody* can effectively plan a safe withdrawal rate, even someone with financial expertise. Only with a crystal ball can you really predict what will end up being safe.

To me, it's fairly obvious that if you are retiring very early and need your portfolio to last 40, 50, or more years, that retiring in today's very low-rate and high-valuation environment, one should be quite conservative with spending. What exactly is conservative can't be quantified, but my own guideline is to use 3% vs the common 4%.

But at the end of the day, the one thing that can't be easily built into these formulas is that people's expenses can be more or less flexible depending on the nature of the expenses. Someone retiring with $500K and expecting to spend $20K/yr probably can't cut much of anything out of that budget if their investment returns suffer. Someone retiring with $5M and expecting to spend $200K/yr can probably cut their spending by 20-30% if necessary.

The point being, "SWR" is an individual thing, depending on how long you need your portfolio to last, how conservative you want to be, and also how flexible your expenses are. The whole idea of finding the one right SWR for everyone is not practical.

elysianfields

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Re: πNYT - New Math for Retirees and the 4% Withdrawal Rule
« Reply #2 on: May 11, 2015, 07:00:25 AM »
Some of the comments are worthy of the Antimustachian Wall of Shame and Comedy:

Quote from: Mona C. of Chicago
So you mean I have to save to become a freaking millionaire, just to retire on 30k per year? While, these greedy law breaking banks are using my hard earned money for god knows what while I can't access it without ridiculous penalties and then after risking my life savings for decades I only get an xtra 4% that barely covers the inflation that these fat cats have pushed up in the first place! Maybe the real answer for the middle class is to stop the run a way inflation rates. These hotshot MIT educated financial planners aren't offering any real services when you consider that (w/o inflation) 1,000,000/30=$33,333 anyway!

But there are a few mustachians in there as well:

Quote from: Bern
Better scheme: save and/or invest 50% of your earnings every year until retirement. Worked for me.

hollyluja

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Re: πNYT - New Math for Retirees and the 4% Withdrawal Rule
« Reply #3 on: May 11, 2015, 05:01:56 PM »
phillyvalue - thanks for distilling that article.  I guess the answer is to have a safety margin built in.  That sounds familiar :)

Did anyone else feel like it was very poorly written?  Or possibly written just to freak everyone out about their retirement in order to sell financial advisory services?

Also, the Antimustachian comment is just... wow.  It's so much fail in 4 sentences - reading comprehension, compound math, and economic statistics.

Gray Peachfuzz

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Re: πNYT - New Math for Retirees and the 4% Withdrawal Rule
« Reply #4 on: May 12, 2015, 06:50:04 AM »
Actually, I kind of admire the Wall of Shame-worthy comment. It is not easy to pack that much fail into four sentences, A for effort at least! Being rather new to The Way of the Mustache, I believe the author of that post has been fed the standard line of "You need mulit-millions to retire on, so give some bankster all yer moneez and we'll 'actively manage' it for you." That was the only advice I knew of, even though something in my brain said that doesn't sound quite right, but I didn't know why. And now the scales have fallen away...

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!