Author Topic: Predictably Irrational discussion thread  (Read 24602 times)

Bakari

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Re: Predictably Irrational discussion thread
« Reply #50 on: July 19, 2013, 08:18:05 AM »
If you liked this book, you may also enjoy the website:

http://youarenotsosmart.com/about/

http://youarenotsosmart.com/all-posts/

I haven't gotten the book version yet.  It gets an excellent review by early retiree and blogger Nords http://the-military-guide.com/2012/07/19/book-review-you-are-not-so-smart/

aj_yooper

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Re: Predictably Irrational discussion thread
« Reply #51 on: July 19, 2013, 09:00:08 AM »
+1 to Bakari on Doug Nordman's review of You Are Not So SMart.   His blog at http://the-military-guide.com/2012/07/19/book-review-you-are-not-so-smart/ is excellent!  Nords is a smooth read; he's got it!

matchewed

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Re: Predictably Irrational discussion thread
« Reply #52 on: July 19, 2013, 10:14:04 AM »
I love that website, not a big fan of the audio format as I find it tough to stay focused but the longform blogging on topics was fascinating.

arebelspy

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Re: Predictably Irrational discussion thread
« Reply #53 on: July 19, 2013, 04:19:16 PM »
I like the YANSS blog; the book was a bit of a slow read.   I enjoyed the "narrative" of Predictably Irrational more.

But YANSS definitely covered more topics.
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Nords

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Re: Predictably Irrational discussion thread
« Reply #54 on: July 20, 2013, 09:53:23 PM »
+1 to Bakari on Doug Nordman's review of You Are Not So SMart.   His blog at http://the-military-guide.com/2012/07/19/book-review-you-are-not-so-smart/ is excellent!  Nords is a smooth read; he's got it!
Thanks!

I have a confirmation bias for the way that he wrote so many posts and was then contacted by the publisher.  That's a lot easier than writing an entire book and then starting a blog to market it.

I'm keeping an eye on "You Are Now Less Dumb", coming out in a couple weeks.  I've already flagged it for our local public librarian's buy list. 
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_noss?url=search-alias%3Dstripbooks&field-keywords=%22You+are+now+less+dumb%22&rh=n%3A283155%2Ck%3A%22You+are+now+less+dumb%22

mushroom

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Re: Predictably Irrational discussion thread
« Reply #55 on: July 21, 2013, 08:23:40 AM »
Having not read The Righteous Mind, would you go into a bit more detail about what exactly you liked better?
All this said, "Predictably Irrational" is an easier, more fun read. It was written more for the general public. I think "A Righteous Mind" was also written for the general public, but because of the information density, it is a less accessible read. It feels more like homework. But reading it made me feel smarter! And now that I've returned that book to the library, I wish I had taken notes-- there's so much in there that I want to remember and try to apply to every day life. Since "Predictably Irrational" was less dense, I think I can remember the lessons without those notes...

Totally agree with jfer. I read Predictably Irrational and Ariely's other book, too, even though I found his writing style irritating for both. I forget which of Ariely's books talks about doing a study in India with dangling sums of money that aren't too big for us but very meaningful to his research subjects, and the whole thing seemed kind of cruel to me.

I loved the Righteous Mind and thought it explored fewer topics in much more depth than Ariely's quick skimming. Not to get too off track, but if you're interested in social psychology and have a lot of time on your hands, the most mind-blowing popular book I've read in this area is Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow. It's very long and in-depth and completely changed the way I think about the world. It's more dry and academic than Predictably Irrational but still very accessible to the layperson and way, way better IMO. But maybe this is because I'm a big nerd.

arebelspy

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Re: Predictably Irrational discussion thread
« Reply #56 on: July 21, 2013, 09:33:45 AM »
I forget which of Ariely's books talks about doing a study in India with dangling sums of money that aren't too big for us but very meaningful to his research subjects, and the whole thing seemed kind of cruel to me.

That was in this month's book, PI (may have been in the after part of the revised and expanded edition, IIRC?), and gives us a great topic of discussion for this thread!  :)

I didn't find it cruel at all.

To refresh people: it was trying to test if big payments to CEOs helped their performance.  So it was offering incentives like 3-6 month's worth of someone's pay as a "bonus" on a task if they performed well.  Since that would be quite expensive here (costing payments from 20-100k++), they did it in India where wages were quite low.

They then gave these people tasks (physical, mental, etc.) and monitored their performance versus people that didn't have the giant incentives.  The people with the incentives tended to perform the same or worse, not better.

To me, that's an awesome opportunity to earn lots of money.  If I was offered 6-months pay for a short study, I'd be ecstatic, not think it was cruel.  Especially if I were living in a situation where that sort of money made a large difference in standard of living.

Did others reading that this month think that was cruel, or not?  (Please base your answer on what you read in the book, not the summary from my faulty memory above, and feel free to correct any errors or omissions I made.)
I am a former teacher who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and am now settled with three kids.
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mushroom

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Re: Predictably Irrational discussion thread
« Reply #57 on: July 21, 2013, 10:56:12 AM »
Perhaps I am coming from it from the perspective of today's IRBs, which perhaps has swung too far in the other direction away from the experiments decades ago (the Milgram experiment, the Stanford prison experiment) that would obviously never fly today.

Now this is all from memory so correct me if I'm wrong about how the experiment was set up:

But I imagine struggling by in India and I have a once-in-a-lifetime chance that these rich Americans come and talk about these crazy sums of money that I could win, but I get so nervous that I totally blow it and walk away with nothing. These are pretty easy tasks so I have only myself to blame and I feel horrible about it. It's not like a lottery where it's just about luck. I never get an opportunity like this again and for the rest of my life I cringe whenever I remember what happened and berate myself.

Now I'm sure this is not every participant's reaction, but I don't think it's so far-fetched that some people ended up feeling this way, with some real psychological harm. IIRC there was no minimum amount that participants got. Even a $20 minimum would have been nice. I dunno, the whole thing struck me as manipulative and careless...oh hey, these people in this other country are way poorer than us so let's tantalize them with sums of money that aren't that big of a deal to us without really considering how it might affect them. When I read the book, I described the study to my husband, who has a Ph.D. in social psychology, and I may have been biased in how I described it, but he had a hard time believing that something like that would pass the IRB in the U.S., especially if it involved American participants.

arebelspy

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Re: Predictably Irrational discussion thread
« Reply #58 on: July 21, 2013, 11:24:21 AM »
They did it in the US with small and large sums of money ($60 vs $600) and it apparently passed IRB.

In India the pay was about 1 days work, two weeks, or 5 months.  (Seems about equivalent to the one days vs. 2 weeks in the one in the U.S. above, for MIT students).

Also clarification on my summary above: with a mechanical skill (e.g. typing a keypad as fast as possible), performance was tied to bonus level, with cognitive it was not.

You would rather they not have the chance to earn it, then have the chance and fail?

FWIW, I do think the pendulum has swung too far on IRBs.
I am a former teacher who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and am now settled with three kids.
If you want to know more about me, this Business Insider profile tells the story pretty well.
I (rarely) blog at AdventuringAlong.com. Check out the Now page to see what I'm up to currently.

mushroom

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Re: Predictably Irrational discussion thread
« Reply #59 on: July 21, 2013, 11:55:24 AM »
You would rather they not have the chance to earn it, then have the chance and fail?

FWIW, I do think the pendulum has swung too far on IRBs.

No, I would rather they have the chance. But I think they should have given them a solid minimum amount at the end for their participation that would mean a lot more to them than us. The way it was designed and the way Ariely wrote about it felt somewhat exploitative to me when you're talking about dealing with a population that has much fewer resources and privileges than Americans do. Obviously it wasn't even close to being as bad as the Tuskegee experiment by any means, but imagine if at Tuskegee they gave half the participants penicillin and the other half no treatment. Should I then be grateful that half the group got penicillin? That's way on the other end of the spectrum, but I do feel like it's on that spectrum.

And I do agree that the pendulum has probably swung too far on IRBs.

avonlea

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Re: Predictably Irrational discussion thread
« Reply #60 on: July 31, 2013, 09:11:00 AM »
I read Predictably Irrational several years ago when it first came out.  The lesson I learned the most from it is that for us humans the fear of loss is stronger than the hope of gain. (or was that in the second book he made after?)  Anyway, that tidbit comes back to me when I find I am being irrationally tight-gripped on something that might need to be let go.

As a suggestion for a future book read, I have noticed that a lot of people on this forum talk about how they are introverts.  I'm included in that group.  Have you all read Quiet: The Power of Introverts In A World That Can't Stop Talking?  I really enjoyed it.  I'd like to pick it up again.

grantmeaname

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Re: Predictably Irrational discussion thread
« Reply #61 on: July 31, 2013, 09:20:26 AM »
Quiet could be an interesting choice. Personally, I'd love to read another food book in the vein of everything by Michael Pollan, but I can't seem to find anything like that that I haven't already read.

I read the first half of Predictably Irrational while I was stuck on a long plane ride last week, and I was overcome by the similarities to Duhigg's The Power of Habit, which some of us read in November. Both authors share amusing anecdotes and write persuasively with just a little bit of convincing science thrown in (more for Ariely than Duhigg, which makes sense). Ultimately, though, I think both went way too far in suggesting attempts to reform society based on very limited information -- Ariely's suggestions for reforming the education system based on conclusions drawn from a large handful of undergraduates eating kisses was especially memorable as far as that goes. I don't know -- after reading both books, I'm pretty convinced that after you've read one pop psychology book you've read them all.

imustachemystash

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Re: Predictably Irrational discussion thread
« Reply #62 on: August 01, 2013, 09:43:32 PM »
I just finished and thought it was an interesting book.  Chapter 4 discussed the cost of social norms.  It coincided with another book I am reading "What Money Can't Buy" by Michael J. Sandel (if you liked this chapter then I recommend this book too).  Reading about categorizing social norms vs. market norms was enlightening and how once social norms have crossed into market norms, it's hard to turn back.  The chapter also touched on how corporations have tried to establish social norms with their employees to improve loyalty.  This is a good strategy because people will work harder for the benefit of the company.

Also, reading about the experiments that took place around different universities made me reminisce about my old college days.  When I reach FI it would be fun to go back and take some classes just for the fun of it.

anastrophe

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Re: Predictably Irrational discussion thread
« Reply #63 on: August 02, 2013, 06:55:51 AM »
Quiet could be an interesting choice.

I loved Quiet. Though if you haven't got the time to read her TED talk sums it up very well.

avonlea

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Re: Predictably Irrational discussion thread
« Reply #64 on: August 02, 2013, 12:12:02 PM »
I loved Quiet. Though if you haven't got the time to read her TED talk sums it up very well.

So true.  Watching her TEDTalk presentation is how I found out about the book. :)

avonlea

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Re: Predictably Irrational discussion thread
« Reply #65 on: August 02, 2013, 12:39:36 PM »
Personally, I'd love to read another food book in the vein of everything by Michael Pollan, but I can't seem to find anything like that that I haven't already read.

For some reason, I haven't been checking out many food books lately.  I'd love to read a good one.  Unfortunately, I have nothing to suggest. :(

Btw, I'm also a fan of Michael Pollan...but I have a feeling a lot of people on this site are!

grantmeaname

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Re: Predictably Irrational discussion thread
« Reply #66 on: August 02, 2013, 03:53:15 PM »
For some reason, I haven't been checking out many food books lately.  I'd love to read a good one.
Try The $64 Tomato, it's little-known and among my favorites. Along a different vein, if you like Good Eats, What Einstein Told His Cook and its sequel are well worth the time.

aj_yooper

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Re: Predictably Irrational discussion thread
« Reply #67 on: August 02, 2013, 05:21:36 PM »
In keeping with PI discussion:  I watched an older "Through the Wormhole" today where they talked about individuals being generally overly optimistic regarding their capabilities (Lake Wobegon effect) and vulnerabilities (e.g., smokers felt less vulnerable to lung cancer), but more pessimistic regarding others'.  With corrective information, individuals would decrease their estimation of vulnerabilities, if their initial estimate of the outcome happening was greater than the actual probability of the event, but individuals did not significantly raise their vulnerability estimates if the actual probability was greater than their initial estimate.  It was also pointed out that visual stimuli tend to overwhelm auditory or other stimuli generally. 


mushroom

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Re: Predictably Irrational discussion thread
« Reply #68 on: August 02, 2013, 06:12:51 PM »
For some reason, I haven't been checking out many food books lately.  I'd love to read a good one. 

I loved An Everlasting Meal: Cooking with Economy and Grace by Tamar Adler, which has been recommended on here before.

jfer_rose

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Re: Predictably Irrational discussion thread
« Reply #69 on: August 03, 2013, 05:55:31 AM »
For some reason, I haven't been checking out many food books lately.  I'd love to read a good one. 

I loved An Everlasting Meal: Cooking with Economy and Grace by Tamar Adler, which has been recommended on here before.

WOW, WOW, WOW!!! I loved that book. One of my favorites.

avonlea

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Re: Predictably Irrational discussion thread
« Reply #70 on: August 03, 2013, 04:42:21 PM »
Try The $64 Tomato, it's little-known and among my favorites. Along a different vein, if you like Good Eats, What Einstein Told His Cook and its sequel are well worth the time.

I loved An Everlasting Meal: Cooking with Economy and Grace by Tamar Adler, which has been recommended on here before.

Thank you!  I just placed the library hold requests.  I'm looking forward to reading them.