Author Topic: Empty Planet: The shock of global population decline (2019, Bricker & Ibbitson)  (Read 30913 times)

rudged

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This is a fascinating reevaluation of dire predictions that have been historically made regarding the explosive growth of the human population. The authors contend that far from progressing from over 7 billion today to about 11 billion by the end of the century (the current best estimate by the UN), we will probably rise to at most about 9 billion before starting to level off and decline. The reasons for this decline, simply put, rest in two trends: (1) urbanization (in cities children cease to be assets (cheap farm labor) and become liabilities) and (2) dramatic social and cultural changes taking place (such as the widespread increase in the education of women) that lead individuals to have fewer or no children. Two particularly striking examples they draw attention to are Japan and Korea, where one can already start to appreciate the consequences of declining birth rates. Both will be characterized by an increasingly elderly population that will rely heavily upon the younger generation for support. They also draw attention to similar trends taking place throughout the world in many countries where you might not suspect this same trend would happen, including countries in Africa and also China (for which they declare the briefly held one family one child policy to be an unmitigated disaster waiting to happen as the parental generation ages). The authors are suspicious that government efforts to increase family size will be successful, but do think that enlightened migration policies such as what takes place in Canada, can mitigate the effects. The problem with counting on migration, of course, is that the current source countries for surplus population are facing these same trends. I have to share I read the book primarily out of curiosity regarding what they would say about the economic changes that await us in light of these demographic changes. The bottom line is that they don't say much, other than that markets in consumer based economies will gradually need to come to grips with the new reality: fewer young people purchasing consumables and an increasingly elderly population that have money to spend, but generally don't spend because they have already furnished their houses, etc. I wonder whether members of the FIRE community might buck these trends, e.g. once one is financially independent, one will have more time to devote to raising children. But, as they emphasize, the decision to have a second or third child is not just economic. Even among those that do choose to have children, many are increasingly comfortable with the idea that two children is enough.

Comar

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A book I read called Factfulness uses statistical data to point out this is happening all over the world where countries are getting richer. People choose to have fewer children. I wonder how that is a bad thing. I understand the imminent problem of the burden of a giant boomer generation getting older. And that will be a problem for decades to come as we all get older. But also, there are too many consumers in the world contributing to global warming, too many infant deaths, poverty which leads to crime and violence and human suffering. If people have fewer children they will hopefully be able to spend more time with them, nurture them and "produce" good people. Increasingly better technology will help us produce consumer goods for this less plentyful generation. I hope. Do you think I'm over simplifying?

rudged

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A book I read called Factfulness uses statistical data to point out this is happening all over the world where countries are getting richer. People choose to have fewer children. I wonder how that is a bad thing. I understand the imminent problem of the burden of a giant boomer generation getting older. And that will be a problem for decades to come as we all get older. But also, there are too many consumers in the world contributing to global warming, too many infant deaths, poverty which leads to crime and violence and human suffering. If people have fewer children they will hopefully be able to spend more time with them, nurture them and "produce" good people. Increasingly better technology will help us produce consumer goods for this less plentyful generation. I hope. Do you think I'm over simplifying?

Thanks for your reply. The authors of Empty Planet contend the trend is happening everywhere, not just in wealthy countries, although you are correct to point out it is more obvious among them. Part of the reason why we don't notice it as much so far is that people are living longer. As such, median ages of populations throughout the world will rise, meaning that a relatively large population of older people will have to be supported by an increasingly smaller group of working aged people. Demands on social services to meet the needs of retirees will increase and as such presumably increase taxes on those who are working. Government programs to encourage larger family sizes cost money and, as the authors point out, are among the first to be cut when we have an economic downturn. As you perceptively point out, there is some upside to a world with fewer people. The environment will be a big winner and with increased urbanization it is possible that species driven to near extinction owing to the loss of territory to agriculture will make a comeback. In previous generations, families could be supported by a single breadwinner. Nowadays middle class people have a hard time even imagining being able to afford a third child. A two income household often leads to less time to take care of children. (Couples need to have at least two to replace themselves and more if the population is to be maintained in the face of individuals who don't have children.) The authors repeatedly draw attention to how unique and unusual it will be to live in a world where 40 year olds outnumber 30 year olds, who outnumber 20 year olds (compared to all other historical periods).

John Galt incarnate!

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I read that Italy's fertility is way below replacement and that if all immigration into Italy ceased it's population will be zero 100 years hence.

Here's another book about declining fertility.



« Last Edit: November 16, 2019, 09:41:58 AM by John Galt incarnate! »

Metalcat

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@rudged paragraphs pretty please?

rudged

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@rudged paragraphs pretty please?

I'm not sure what you mean. Are you asking for direct quotations from the book? or are you reminding me not to quote responses? I borrowed the book via interlibrary loan and no longer have it.

Metalcat

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@rudged paragraphs pretty please?

I'm not sure what you mean. Are you asking for direct quotations from the book? or are you reminding me not to quote responses? I borrowed the book via interlibrary loan and no longer have it.

Lol, no, I mean can you break your posts up into paragraphs? Those of us with dyslexia have a hard time with walls of text. It's literally uncomfortable for me to try and read your posts.

pecunia

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For an ugly black cat you do pretty well with dyslexia.

Metalcat

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For an ugly black cat you do pretty well with dyslexia.

Cornish Rex cats are beautiful. It's not my fault you have shit taste in cats :P
« Last Edit: November 17, 2019, 04:48:18 AM by Malkynn »

driftwood

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I can see how this will all get rather messy real quick. Imagine growing up in a world where your parents and society are preparing you not to just support your parents when you get old enough to work, but maybe 4, 5, 6 … 10 retirees? Take all the angst and frustration our youth feel now against outrageous school loans vs available career opportunities and aim it an older generation. Add in that the older generation being supported will always outnumber the younger generation doing the supporting, and therefore be in a position to outvote the younger generation in any and all votes for policy regarding taxation and social support.

Maybe this trend will push people to be more concerned about saving/investing for their own future instead of spending all their money and then some on the latest gadgets, biggest house they an afford, etc.

former player

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Perhaps not a constructive addition to the debate, but can I say how much I hate the phrase "declining fertility"?  A decrease in rates of childbirth has almost nothing to do with "fertility" and almost everything to do with giving people, particularly women, control over their own bodies.  To call this "declining fertility" is to fundamentally misstate the factors involved, in ways which are reminiscent of treating women as breeding machines that have become faulty to the detriment of men.

Vashy

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Perhaps not a constructive addition to the debate, but can I say how much I hate the phrase "declining fertility"?  A decrease in rates of childbirth has almost nothing to do with "fertility" and almost everything to do with giving people, particularly women, control over their own bodies.  To call this "declining fertility" is to fundamentally misstate the factors involved, in ways which are reminiscent of treating women as breeding machines that have become faulty to the detriment of men.

THIS. It's funny how countries where women are supported with state-funded (ie free or very cheap) childcare and all-day school actually have more women choosing to have children (or more children). You can't make child-bearing "solely women's responsibility" (loading the work, expenses and all the disadvantages - ie smaller pensions and smaller salaries) and simply assume they'll just grin and ear it. If the state wants babies, it better helps pay for them and rear them.

LWYRUP

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Declining global population will be good for the environment.

Most seniors have savings so can live off them, or work longer.  Those that don't will be supported by the state / family but have more spartan lifestyles.  Which is not that big of a deal, the developed world is quite rich already.  Also, all these trends will happen gradually so people will have time to adjust.

If population declines real estate should become more affordable, so that may help people decide later to have more children.  Or maybe some of those elderly people can take on childcare responsibility, which is what people used to do historically. 

I am not that concerned about this.  I think it's highly likely that fertility rates will just wax and wane over time.  Right now they are 2.4 globally and ideally they should be about 1.9 so we can have a slightly declining population and ease the burden on our overstressed planet. 

I do agree countries on the extremes (fertility above 3 or below 1.5) will have more difficulty in adapting than those in the middle.  If push comes to shove, I am sure there are people that would be happy to have 6+ kids if the state paid them to do so.  But I don't think it will come to that anyways. 

I have three kids.  They are an absolute joy but also a lot of work and lot of money.  Having them definitely put off FIRE.
 Knowing all I know now, I would have them again.  :)
« Last Edit: November 17, 2019, 03:06:02 PM by blinx7 »

rudged

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@rudged paragraphs pretty please?

I'm not sure what you mean. Are you asking for direct quotations from the book? or are you reminding me not to quote responses? I borrowed the book via interlibrary loan and no longer have it.

Lol, no, I mean can you break your posts up into paragraphs? Those of us with dyslexia have a hard time with walls of text. It's literally uncomfortable for me to try and read your posts.

Will do.

I've forgotten whether the authors used the phrase "fertility rates." The certainly did use "birth rates," and they do ascribe declines primarily to choices women (and their partners) are making about how many children to have.

rudged

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If population declines real estate should become more affordable, so that may help people decide later to have more children.  Or maybe some of those elderly people can take on childcare responsibility, which is what people used to do historically. 


Perhaps, but I wonder if that will indeed be the case. I don't see that a declining world population in and of itself implies anything about trends regarding wealth inequality. A world with fewer people who become increasingly concentrated in cities could be one with even greater wealth inequality than we see today.

maizefolk

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If push comes to shove, I am sure there are people that would be happy to have 6+ kids if the state paid them to do so.  But I don't think it will come to that anyways. 

I wouldn't be so sure. Countries with low birth rates are already paying people to have children and it's not doing a low to change the downward drift in the birth rate. I earned my folks about two years of kindergeld payments during the time we spent in Germany growing up. In Singapore you get cash bonuses for each child born that increase up to $28,000 for families that have five or more children.

Yet birth rates continue to decline in both countries. Raising children gets more and more expensive in more industrialized countries so covering the full economic cost to parents of deciding to have children becomes pricy fast* and for anything less than that, it's likely to act as a subsidy to parents who were going to have children anyway but not push many people to change their decision about having kids in the first place.

*Because I enjoy numbers: If you go off the USDA estimate of $233k/child and look at the 4M children born in the USA every year that's about $1T/year spent on raising the next generation (not counting any help with college), and before you consider that the idea of subsidizing children would be to increase the number of children which would increase the number of payments the government would need to make each year.


If population declines real estate should become more affordable, so that may help people decide later to have more children.  Or maybe some of those elderly people can take on childcare responsibility, which is what people used to do historically. 


Perhaps, but I wonder if that will indeed be the case. I don't see that a declining world population in and of itself implies anything about trends regarding wealth inequality. A world with fewer people who become increasingly concentrated in cities could be one with even greater wealth inequality than we see today.

Certainly, but a fixed number of houses and a declining population implies a decline in price for many of those houses even in the case of extreme wealth inequality because billionaires simply won't have any use for large numbers of small (and potentially poorly maintained) middle class homes.

LWYRUP

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Yes, but we are only in the very early stages of population declines.  Check back when the population is half of what it is now in, say, Italy, and I am guessing the culture (not just the state) will be different, and more effort will go into supporting young parents (e.g., childless uncles actually driving kids to soccer practice every week and not just throwing a ball once a year) and things will turn around.  One of the consequences of the decline of the extended family has been that young parents are basically left on their own.  I agree that's bad, but if it's going to change there will need to be cultural change not just state support.  But cultures do adapt to challenges and changed circumstances, though it can take a very long time (decades, or even generations).  There have been fertility increases in Russia, for example, since the fall of the Soviet Union.

Singapore is very crowded and expensive so I wouldn't expect the situation there to change anytime soon.  But that's a unique case. 

In any event, I just think homo sapiens will adapt, either way, though there may be some bumps in the road along the way.

Given global TFR is still 2.4 these concerns seem a little premature, though I agree with the general sentiment that our culture should do a better job of supporting young parents.

maizefolk

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Singapore is very crowded and expensive so I wouldn't expect the situation there to change anytime soon.  But that's a unique case. 

Is it though? A larger and larger percentage of the human population lives in crowded urban settings where the cost of living is high. And while Singapore as country-that-is-a-city is in a small club with places like Hong Kong, things like Kindergeld in Germany has also not exhibited a lot of success at turning around birth rates.

Quote
In any event, I just think homo sapiens will adapt, either way, though there may be some bumps in the road along the way.

Oh absolutely. Humans likely aren't going extinct. But the bumps seem likely to be rather large and may last for quite a while.

Miss Piggy

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@rudged paragraphs pretty please?

I'm not sure what you mean. Are you asking for direct quotations from the book? or are you reminding me not to quote responses? I borrowed the book via interlibrary loan and no longer have it.

Lol, no, I mean can you break your posts up into paragraphs? Those of us with dyslexia have a hard time with walls of text. It's literally uncomfortable for me to try and read your posts.

I could not agree more. Please insert some empty lines.

Kyle Schuant

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Part of declining birth rates is people having them when older. If you start at 21 you simply have more time to pop out 5-6 than if you start at 31 years old. As well, in your 20s you can physically handle lots of interrupted sleep and the like, in your 30s it's harder, and in your 40s it's awful (as I know, having had children at 40 and 44yo). I think the expense is largely just an excuse - children are hard work at any age, and as you get older you simply can't be bothered.


A government which wants to encourage a higher birth rate thus needs to encourage early parenthood. But that's not happening in any country where women are educated. As you increase women's education, birth rates decline - that's why even Saudi Arabia and Iran are close to 2 children per woman now.

The authors of Empty Planet contend the trend is happening everywhere, not just in wealthy countries, although you are correct to point out it is more obvious among them. Part of the reason why we don't notice it as much so far is that people are living longer. As such, median ages of populations throughout the world will rise, meaning that a relatively large population of older people will have to be supported by an increasingly smaller group of working aged people. Demands on social services to meet the needs of retirees will increase and as such presumably increase taxes on those who are working. Government programs to encourage larger family sizes cost money and, as the authors point out, are among the first to be cut when we have an economic downturn. As you perceptively point out, there is some upside to a world with fewer people. The environment will be a big winner and with increased urbanization it is possible that species driven to near extinction owing to the loss of territory to agriculture will make a comeback.
There are other things which will happen, too.

There will be social changes and civil conflicts in many countries. For example, Iran and Saudi Arabia have gone from 6-8 children per woman in 1980 to nearly 2 now. This means that at least 25% of families have accepted they won't have a son - this is a pretty enormous change, socially, as even the most patriarchal sexist father is likely to send his daughter to university if he has no son. Thus we will see an erosion of patriarchal systems - which is to say, the monarchical or theocratic rule - in those and similar countries. Those systems will fight back, if they can, or else simply collapse one day as the old Soviet Union did.

Urbanisation will at some point stop. In parts of the world like Syria and Egypt it's been driven by climate change - if your farm turns to a dust bowl, you eventually leave it. And thus climate change is a proximate cause of the revolutions and civil wars in those countries, since they suddenly had a million hungry unemployed young blokes in their cities. That change is largely irreversible in the near term, rain's not going to suddenly start falling in these new deserts.

But the other thing driving people off the land and into cities has been cheap energy. 12 men can plough an acre in one day, or one man and one horse (though the horse needs 4+ acres to sustain it) - but a tractor, as expensive as it is for rural peasants, can plough 20 acres in a day. Ammonium nitrate from natural gas likewise makes each area of land more productive, and pesticides and herbicides from oil do, too.

Fossil fuels are depleting, and though in principle elements like iron and boron can be endlessly recycled, fossil fuels once burned are gone forever. And so they will rise in price. Cheap fossil fuels give us cheap food, too, and drive people off the land and into cities, since the whole infrastructure of modern megacities can't exist without cheap fossil fuels. As fossil fuels become more expensive, the infrastructure of cities will begin to wear down and not be replaced, and they'll become worse places to live. Couple that with the rise in fuel, fertiliser, pesticide and herbicide prices, and we will see some people return to the land.

We won't go back to the Middle Ages with 10 of every 11 people involved in food production, but nor will be sustain today's Western systems with 0.5-2% of the population involved. I'm pegging something like around 1900, which was about 25% across much of the West - happening not tomorrow, but in a century or two.

At some point, economies will not grow any more. Economic growth ultimately comes from increased consumption of goods and services, but they can't be consumed without being produced, and that requires fossil fuels. And people aged 20-40 are the largest consumers, children and elderly consume much less. So there'll be neither the demand nor the supply.

Absent economic growth, the only way to FIRE will be a landlord lifestyle.
« Last Edit: November 17, 2019, 07:25:42 PM by Kyle Schuant »

waltworks

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I read that Italy's fertility is way below replacement and that if all immigration into Italy ceased it's population will be zero 100 years hence.

Here's another book about declining fertility.

Erm, no. Even if you only had 1 child per woman, on average, you'd just have each generation half the size of the last. As older generations died off, the population of course would shrink, but getting to zero would take 27 generations (at 26 generations, there's just one person born), from a current population of something like 30 million people currently of plausible child-having age.

Give each generation 25 years or so and you're at ~675 years. Then that poor kid, assuming he/she doesn't die of boredom, still has 80 years or so to go before the last Italian is gone.

-W

Leisured

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Two posters have raised the idea that in a world with static or slowly declining birthrates, retired people will have to be supported by a smaller number of younger workers. This is true in a simplistic way, but does not take into account the effect of automation. Automation is the equivalent of slave labor, and is to be applauded. We now have what is in effect a slave labor force, but the slaves are mechanical, so there is no problem with ethics. A world with a large number of retirees relative to younger workers means more job opportunities for workers.

Old folk have the clothes and appliances they need, and eat less than young folk, and many are self supporting through investment. I do not have figures, but I suspect that a larger proportion of retirees are self supporting now than fifty years ago.


Hula Hoop

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Perhaps not a constructive addition to the debate, but can I say how much I hate the phrase "declining fertility"?  A decrease in rates of childbirth has almost nothing to do with "fertility" and almost everything to do with giving people, particularly women, control over their own bodies.  To call this "declining fertility" is to fundamentally misstate the factors involved, in ways which are reminiscent of treating women as breeding machines that have become faulty to the detriment of men.

THIS. It's funny how countries where women are supported with state-funded (ie free or very cheap) childcare and all-day school actually have more women choosing to have children (or more children). You can't make child-bearing "solely women's responsibility" (loading the work, expenses and all the disadvantages - ie smaller pensions and smaller salaries) and simply assume they'll just grin and ear it. If the state wants babies, it better helps pay for them and rear them.

Really?  I live and had my kids here in Italy, which is pretty much the poster child for declining rates of childbirth.  I think we have almost the lowest rate in the world (maybe Japan is lower?)  Anyway, here we have state subsidized daycare from age 5 months onward on a sliding scale depending on income/assets. We paid very little. From age 3-5, full time preschool (8.30-4.30 5 days a week) is free.  Public elementary school starts at age 6 and the day is 8.30-4.30.  At my kids' low income public school there was inexpensive or free before and after school care available for those who need it - on a sliding scale based on income/wealth.

I assume that declining rates of childbirth aren't just about women though but the situation is a lot more complex than you make out.

Metalcat

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Perhaps not a constructive addition to the debate, but can I say how much I hate the phrase "declining fertility"?  A decrease in rates of childbirth has almost nothing to do with "fertility" and almost everything to do with giving people, particularly women, control over their own bodies.  To call this "declining fertility" is to fundamentally misstate the factors involved, in ways which are reminiscent of treating women as breeding machines that have become faulty to the detriment of men.

THIS. It's funny how countries where women are supported with state-funded (ie free or very cheap) childcare and all-day school actually have more women choosing to have children (or more children). You can't make child-bearing "solely women's responsibility" (loading the work, expenses and all the disadvantages - ie smaller pensions and smaller salaries) and simply assume they'll just grin and ear it. If the state wants babies, it better helps pay for them and rear them.

Really?  I live and had my kids here in Italy, which is pretty much the poster child for declining rates of childbirth.  I think we have almost the lowest rate in the world (maybe Japan is lower?)  Anyway, here we have state subsidized daycare from age 5 months onward on a sliding scale depending on income/assets. We paid very little. From age 3-5, full time preschool (8.30-4.30 5 days a week) is free.  Public elementary school starts at age 6 and the day is 8.30-4.30.  At my kids' low income public school there was inexpensive or free before and after school care available for those who need it - on a sliding scale based on income/wealth.

I assume that declining rates of childbirth aren't just about women though but the situation is a lot more complex than you make out.

Yeah...I'd like to see the stats where countries with more social programs supporting parents have a higher birth rates. That goes against everything I have ever read about global birth rates...

waltworks

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Lots of countries have tried improved maternity leave/free daycare/etc. Lots have tried tax breaks (we do that here in the US) and even straight cash payments to get people to have children. None of those things (look at, say, Denmark, or really almost any European country) has worked at all, or at least hasn't worked to get back up to a ~2.1 rate that maintains a stable population.

I thought this times article (paywall) was pretty interesting: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/11/16/opinion/sunday/capitalism-children.html

We live in UT where people are pretty into kids, and we have 3 kids of our own, which isn't unusual at all here. But if we moved to, say Pete's hometown of Longmont, we'd be total weirdos.

-W

dougules

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Lots of countries have tried improved maternity leave/free daycare/etc. Lots have tried tax breaks (we do that here in the US) and even straight cash payments to get people to have children. None of those things (look at, say, Denmark, or really almost any European country) has worked at all, or at least hasn't worked to get back up to a ~2.1 rate that maintains a stable population.

I thought this times article (paywall) was pretty interesting: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/11/16/opinion/sunday/capitalism-children.html

We live in UT where people are pretty into kids, and we have 3 kids of our own, which isn't unusual at all here. But if we moved to, say Pete's hometown of Longmont, we'd be total weirdos.

-W

France is generally held up as a place that's managed to buck that trend.  I think it's usually chocked up to a combination of generous government assistance and a progressive culture.  I think the trend may have slumped a little in the last few years, but that may just be the echo of a baby bust in the 90s.

waltworks

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Yeah, but France, as the EU overachiever, is still just hovering around 2.0 as of 2010, still a tad below replacement. Take first generation immigrants out and it's lower than that significantly.

I'd say 50% of my peer group from college/graduate school that I stay in touch with have zero kids. Another quarter of them only have one. People just seem to feel like it'll cramp their style too much or something.

Should be a lot easier for my kids to get into college/find jobs, I guess?

-W

Kyle Schuant

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Automation is the equivalent of slave labor, and is to be applauded. We now have what is in effect a slave labor force, but the slaves are mechanical, so there is no problem with ethics. A world with a large number of retirees relative to younger workers means more job opportunities for workers.

Except automation doesn't work that well, or there'd be more of it, so expecting more relies on technological breakthroughs, which is not something we can predict, it's just a matter of faith. It's no more rational to say that "technology will save us" than it is to say, "Jesus will descend on a cloud with harps playing and save us."

Let's work with what we know we've got.

Automation in any case requires cheap surplus energy. Which means fossil fuels. Which are finite, being burned and thus declining. So it ain't gonna happen. This, ladies and gentlemen, is as good as it gets. How do we know our society is declining? Because we're being constantly told how swimmingly everything is going, and how the bright technological future is just around the corner! It's like the boyfriend who tells you he's loyal and honest - if he were, he wouldn't need to tell you.
« Last Edit: November 20, 2019, 10:29:21 PM by Kyle Schuant »

maizefolk

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Automation is the equivalent of slave labor, and is to be applauded. We now have what is in effect a slave labor force, but the slaves are mechanical, so there is no problem with ethics. A world with a large number of retirees relative to younger workers means more job opportunities for workers.

Except automation doesn't work that well, or there'd be more of it, so expecting more relies on technological breakthroughs, which is not something we can predict, it's just a matter of faith. It's no more rational to say that "technology will save us" than it is to say, "Jesus will descend on a cloud with harps playing and save us."

Wait, what? We see more and more automation every year, both of physical labor done previously done by humans and of the mental labor done by humans. Expecting the increases in automation we've seen each year in the recent past will stop dead in their tracks next year would seem to require a much larger leap of faith.

I hadn't been in a fast food restaurant for several years but ducked into a McDonalds a couple of weeks ago for coffee. It was shocking how much the ordering process has changed. About half the people had placed orders on their phone and just waited for their number to come up on a screen and place an order. For the remainder, there was a big touch screen where people could navigate the menu and put in their order with any special substitutions or changes to condiments. There was also still one woman behind a cash register taking orders. The second striking thing I noticed was that a group of young guys (well younger than me anyway) came in, and stood in line to use the touch screen, even though there was no line to talk to and order from the human cashier.

Automatic checkouts at grocery stores have come and gone over the years, but my local store went in for them in a big way about a year and a half ago and they are so much easier and faster than the old models. At work, I've be shocked by how much better and more adaptable pick and place machines have gotten for even very small PCB runs, and after years of liquid handling robots being something that only really made sense for large batches of molecular biology, we're starting to hit the point where it makes sense to have robots handle even the simple individual PCR reactions that were previously set up by a human pipetting reagents by hand. The robot's not faster than a human yet, but it makes far fewer mistakes.

But the examples above are mostly physical work. If we look at law, natural language processing started to displace a lot of the work done by paralegals and entry level lawyers during the discovery process almost a decade ago, and it hasn't slowed down since. I recently had my first direct experience working with someone who used "Amy Ingram" to schedule their meetings, but the company has been around and growing for almost five years already. People keep asking Amy out on dates.

Anyway, this is a longer rambling digression than I anticipated, sorry about that.

TL;DR version: People are using more and more automation, so it's clearly working (at least for some things).

Linea_Norway

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Automation is the equivalent of slave labor, and is to be applauded. We now have what is in effect a slave labor force, but the slaves are mechanical, so there is no problem with ethics. A world with a large number of retirees relative to younger workers means more job opportunities for workers.

Except automation doesn't work that well, or there'd be more of it, so expecting more relies on technological breakthroughs, which is not something we can predict, it's just a matter of faith. It's no more rational to say that "technology will save us" than it is to say, "Jesus will descend on a cloud with harps playing and save us."

Let's work with what we know we've got.

Automation in any case requires cheap surplus energy. Which means fossil fuels. Which are finite, being burned and thus declining. So it ain't gonna happen. This, ladies and gentlemen, is as good as it gets. How do we know our society is declining? Because we're being constantly told how swimmingly everything is going, and how the bright technological future is just around the corner! It's like the boyfriend who tells you he's loyal and honest - if he were, he wouldn't need to tell you.

I do agree on that automation needs access to cheap energy. But that can just as well be clean energy. Some international companies are opening large data centers in Norway, because we have cheap, clean energy (and sell it way too cheap to those data centers, but that is another case).

For automation, there is so much of it just in recent years:
Everybody is using cell phones.
My cell phone (mostly) replaces the following things that I used in the past: shopping list, walkman, phone, GPS, phone book, general notebook, audio recorder, drivers licence, radio, TV, physical games, flashlight, paper book with personal contacts, light switch, photo albums, bank transfer checks, customer cards, calculator, agenda, password notebook, paper books, navigation maps for car or for hiking, encyclopedia, small cash for train ticket machines, small cash for parking machines.

Many are using a smart watch and a smart device on their table at home that takes away the need to get out of the couch. Many have a robot vacuum and robot lawn mover. All the people who I know that have one of these are very pleased with it, so they obviously work reasonably well. There exist driver-less subways and busses. Most of us book our plan tickets and hotels online, instead of through a travel agency. Practically all my bills are received electronically and paid automatically (America has a long way to go here from what I have understood). My taxes are handled automatically, I just need to verify the correctness. Doctors are sending my prescription electronically to the pharmacies and I can get my medicine anywhere. And there is probably a lot more, like Google and Facebook know everything there is to know about me.

maizefolk

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Here's another fascinating one I just read about:

MGM in Las Vegas is cutting out $100M in payroll costs over two years by replacing bartenders with automatic drink mixing machines.

https://www.masslive.com/news/2019/03/robot-bartenders-are-mixing-drinks-at-mgm-springfield-and-the-technology-is-now-headed-to-las-vegas-casinos.html


pecunia

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The intent of automation is to free the time of human beings so that we can spend our time on better things.  It is neither a bad idea nor can you expect it to go away.  If one could have a person from just a few generations take a look at what we have today, they would not view it as a negative, but would marvel at the achievement.

La Bibliotecaria Feroz

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Perhaps not a constructive addition to the debate, but can I say how much I hate the phrase "declining fertility"?  A decrease in rates of childbirth has almost nothing to do with "fertility" and almost everything to do with giving people, particularly women, control over their own bodies.  To call this "declining fertility" is to fundamentally misstate the factors involved, in ways which are reminiscent of treating women as breeding machines that have become faulty to the detriment of men.

OK, but sperm counts are down worldwide... so yes, fertility is declining. It is particularly tough combined with the increasing age of moms. A woman in her late 30s matched with a guy with a low count is facing an uphill battle.

maizefolk

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The intent of automation is to free the time of human beings so that we can spend our time on better things.  It is neither a bad idea nor can you expect it to go away.

I agree that automation is not going away and that it has the potential to make our lives much better, not worse. Whether it is ultimately a good or bad thing for our societal cohesion and ability to pursue our maximum potential has human beings depends on whether or not we're able to adapt as a civilization the the dramatic change that occurs when a lot of the world people have been doing in the past can now be done by robots and computers.

That's why I'm so excited to see candidates like Andrew Yang starting to emerge who are talking about the issues automation creates, without painting automation or technological progress as inherently bad, just something that requires us to reexamine some of our long standing assumptions about labor and the economy.

Kyle Schuant

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I do agree on that automation needs access to cheap energy. But that can just as well be clean energy. Some international companies are opening large data centers in Norway, because we have cheap, clean energy (and sell it way too cheap to those data centers, but that is another case).
So, Norway has the data centres because it's selling its already cheap energy at a loss. This is not financially sustainable. Note also that the machinery for the data centres is not made in Norway, nor the materials for it mined there.

All the electronics etc you mention depend not only on cheap energy to run, but on cheap energy to mine, refine, and so on. And cheap labour. For example a key element in modern electronics is tantalum, which comes from coltan ore, about 80% of which is in the Congo. Access to coltan was a proximate cause of the prolongation of the Second Congo War, resulting in the deaths of millions of people. It's mined with slave and child labour. If we had to pay qualified adults to mine it, using modern occupational health and safety methods, it'd be a lot more expensive. Likewise rare earths mined in China with very low worker safety and environmental standards. And so on.

Now add in all the energy used to refine the stuff and transport it around the world to various factories, and then around the world to various countries. There's a stupendous amount of embodied energy in even a smartphone, it's around a gigajoule, energy equivalent to about 50kg of iron - or 4 bicycles. See for example here.

Renewable energy can't offer us this vast energy surplus because of the concept of energy return on energy invested. the first oil wells offered 100:1 - that is, it took the equivalent of a barrel of oil spent to get 100 out of the ground. Shale oil's well under 10, as low as 2-4 in some places. Biofuel's about 1.4:1 which is why hardly anyone bothers with it now. Natural gas and coal-fired plants run 50-100:1. Wind's 50:1 depending where you put it, but solar PV makes about 10-20:1. However, their electricity must be transported to other things, such as car batteries, which also cost energy to make, with losses along the way, reducing the effective EROEI. At best we'd manage 20:1 overall.

If it takes a certain amount of energy to create a power plant, car and so on, then it also takes energy to maintain and repair them, and replace them eventually. Which means more and more of our energy will be going just to keep the whole system going. If our main energy source has an EROEI of 100:1 then we all get to have smartphones. If it's 20:1 then less of us will have them.

Automation will never be global for the same reason that the Third World are never all going to have modern Western middle class lifestyles: there are simply not enough energy and resources for it all. Our days of happy motoring and the three thousand mile caesar salad are passing.

The country famous for a low birthrate and high automation is Japan, which has a massive foreign debt - because someone has to pay for all those energy and resources, and even at today's cheap prices they can't afford them. They're passing the debt onto future generations, which since the next generation will be a lot smaller, is neither prudent nor kind.

TempusFugit

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I read an article the other day whose author took the position that China had already passed the point of no return demographically due to the decades of one child policy. 

https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/10/china-precarious-future-robust-economic-growth-will-become-more-elusive/

A couple of points Will makes: “...fertility has been below the replacement level for at least 25 years. China’s population will shrink after 2027; its working-age population has been shrinking for five years and will be at least 100 million smaller by 2040...The number of elderly will have increased from 135 million to 325 million in 25 years, with the nation’s median age having gone from less than 25 in 1990 to 48. “No country,” says Eberstadt, “has ever gone gray at a faster pace.”


perhaps even more troubling, they may very soon have a large restless population of men for whom there are no possible mates.   When their economy slows even further ( the trade wars are only one part of their economic problems) history suggests that they will become an even bigger threat to the region. 

TempusFugit

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And i think that all the folks who believe that overpopulation is the problem are mistaken. 

The idea that we are going to run out of resources is an old one that has been proven wrong every time, but it just seems logical so most people still fervently believe it.  But it is as wrong today as it was in the 70’s when the Population Bomb was published predicting mass famine within a few decades.  People are creative and resourceful.  We figure out ways to not just manage but thrive. 

My bet is on human potential.  We could be just a few years from revolutionary technological advances that will make all of these concerns seem quaint.  Like the horse crap crisis in Manhattan circa 1901.  While it was piling 50 ft high and people were despairing of suffocating under a mass of equine excrement, the internal combustion engine was about to eliminate the problem in just a few years.   

pecunia

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- SNIP -

Renewable energy can't offer us this vast energy surplus because of the concept of energy return on energy invested.

- SNIP-

Nukes can.  There's still lots of Uranium out there and enough Thorium to last as fuel virtually forever.  Newer reactor designs have very little waste.  When built, they will easily be able to handle the needs of the declining population without greenhouse gases.

TempusFugit

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- SNIP -

Renewable energy can't offer us this vast energy surplus because of the concept of energy return on energy invested.

- SNIP-

Nukes can.  There's still lots of Uranium out there and enough Thorium to last as fuel virtually forever.  Newer reactor designs have very little waste.  When built, they will easily be able to handle the needs of the declining population without greenhouse gases.


Not to get political, but it really is a shame that all the folks who claim that climate change is an existential threat to humanity refuse to even consider nuclear energy, the one known energy source that is conceivably able to replace fossil fuels within the next few decades.  I'm all for solar and wind and thermal and all the rest (except bio fuels which have never really held any promise except financial for some folks) but we are trying to solve this huge problem without using our most potent tool. If we had been spending the past few decades optimizing nuclear reactors and making them smaller and safer (both very much possible)  we would be well on the way to truly eliminating fossil fuels.

 

maizefolk

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- SNIP -

Renewable energy can't offer us this vast energy surplus because of the concept of energy return on energy invested.

- SNIP-

Nukes can.  There's still lots of Uranium out there and enough Thorium to last as fuel virtually forever.  Newer reactor designs have very little waste.  When built, they will easily be able to handle the needs of the declining population without greenhouse gases.


Not to get political, but it really is a shame that all the folks who claim that climate change is an existential threat to humanity refuse to even consider nuclear energy, the one known energy source that is conceivably able to replace fossil fuels within the next few decades.  I'm all for solar and wind and thermal and all the rest (except bio fuels which have never really held any promise except financial for some folks) but we are trying to solve this huge problem without using our most potent tool. If we had been spending the past few decades optimizing nuclear reactors and making them smaller and safer (both very much possible)  we would be well on the way to truly eliminating fossil fuels.

As the number of people who see climate change as an existential threat grows, it seems like the refusal to even consider nuclear power is becoming less consistent.

I don't think that anyone is actually changing their minds about nuclear power, but more people who aren't fundamentally opposed to nuclear are starting to feel threatened by climate change.

rudged

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Re. automation, the authors of Empty Planet make the point that with fewer young people, we will presumably have fewer innovators.

GuitarStv

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Re. automation, the authors of Empty Planet make the point that with fewer young people, we will presumably have fewer innovators.

Is innovation purely a numbers game?  Or can we foster it by better education, better nutrition, and better enrichment opportunities.  All of which should actually be easier to achieve with fewer young people crowding each other.

cats

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Personally, I do think the earth could stand to have fewer (or at least not *more* people).  Yes, humans are innovative and will come up with ways to do more with less but ultimately...the planet's size is finite and we don't seem to really be on the verge of finding another one that is practical to colonize or extract resources from.  Ideally, automation will progress at a pace that softens the blow of shrinking populations, in reality...we as a species don't seem to excel at smooth transitions.

Anecdotally, I'm in my late 30s and when I think about how many of my friends from school do or don't have kids, it's pretty crazy how many do NOT have kids at all (and also how many not only don't have kids but also don't have nieces/nephews).  Obviously not a sample representative of the whole population but I'd say my friend group is well below replacement level birth rates.

Kronsey

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Absent economic growth, the only way to FIRE will be a landlord lifestyle.


Somewhat of a thread derailment, but I'll post anyway. I've enjoyed reading your replies to this thread @Kyle Schuant and have been thinking similar thoughts lately.

What most are ignoring about this entire discussion in relation to FIRE is that the whole Jack Bogle mantra of index investing is based upon never ending economic growth. Long term, low (or no) growth would make the entire notion of index investing obsolete (or at least drive down returns for sustained periods pushing people out of that strategy all together).

For anyone who agrees with the idea that an economic growth model built on the back of cheap energy is impossible to sustain forever, have you moved towards a landlord type investment FIRE plan?

I'm strongly considering a change in strategy, though it will have to be multi faceted as my ability to control taxable income for health insurance reasons is built on the 401(k), IRA, and profit sharing plan model.   

pecunia

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A landlord type investment - If some sort of catastrophe happened and our energy intensive culture were transformed to a smaller GDP, etc - Wouldn't the pie shrink overall?  Wouldn't the landlord type investment also decrease in value? 

Of course with real estate, the rule has been location, location and location and perhaps your investment may be in a preferred area that wouldn't be hit as the economy shrank, but it seems like it may be similar to picking the best stock.

Kronsey

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A landlord type investment - If some sort of catastrophe happened and our energy intensive culture were transformed to a smaller GDP, etc - Wouldn't the pie shrink overall?  Wouldn't the landlord type investment also decrease in value? 

Of course with real estate, the rule has been location, location and location and perhaps your investment may be in a preferred area that wouldn't be hit as the economy shrank, but it seems like it may be similar to picking the best stock.

Yes, no doubt that a worldwide economic crash or permanent slow down would create downward pressure on RE prices.

But on a more simplistic level, people will always need a place to live and therefore RE provides cash flow opportunities that VTSAX would not under permanent slow down scenarios.

So you do bring up a good point that highly leveraged RE may do as poorly as index investing as decreased rent prices could lead to negative cash flow.

I've thought that through and believe it would be smart to have a portion of an RE portfolio owned free and clear to hedge against being over leveraged for the points you mention.

waltworks

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Erm, you are aware that VTSAX has quite a bit of RE exposure, right?

If the economy/population both crash, so does RE. Not very complex, really.

I prefer to imagine a future where automation and cheap clean energy mean humans can do what they want without a ton of working. So your SWR failure cases? Irrelevant.

-W

Michael in ABQ

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Although it may seem far off in the future - there is essentially infinite resources available in space. A single small asteroid could contain enough iron to meet world demand for multiple years, not to mention elements like gold and platinum that are relatively rare on Earth. Now obviously there's not a whole lot of light sweet crude on the moon or in asteroids nearby but there is solar energy that could be beamed back to earth via microwave. I imagine we will see solar satellites and asteroid mining within all of our lifetimes, probably within a couple of decades. We'll still be using natural gas and coal in some places for a while but we've still got a significant chunk of the third world still using wood as a primary energy source. So Japan might be an early adopter of solar power satellites due to their lack of oil while Burundi is probably going to be a ways behind.


Personally we've got six kids so we're waaay off the right side of the bell curve these days. My mom was one of nine and my father-in-law was one of eight. Meanwhile, my generation in our extended family (siblings plus ~10 first cousins) who are in their mid 20s to early 40s are between 0 and 4 kids each with an average closer to 1.5 as maybe half have kids. My wife's side of her family is right at about 2 kids each between her siblings and first cousins.

pecunia

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There is no shortage of iron on Earth.  There are huge deposits in Australia, Brazil and plenty left in the Mesabi and Marquette iron ranges.  Harvesting more exotic metals may make sense.  For example, the moon has Titanium.

https://www.space.com/13247-moon-map-lunar-titanium.html

Harvesting these metals combined with high efficiency Thorium reactors can possibly make us look forward to a bright future.

Linea_Norway

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Re. automation, the authors of Empty Planet make the point that with fewer young people, we will presumably have fewer innovators.

Is innovation purely a numbers game?  Or can we foster it by better education, better nutrition, and better enrichment opportunities.  All of which should actually be easier to achieve with fewer young people crowding each other.

And can we let self learning AIs make inventions. They can probably think outside the human box, in both positive and negative ways.