Your market predictions for 2025

[41_swish]

Americans will always find a way to swipe that credit card ;)

[Radagast]

10 year prediction: Market has some ups and downs, enough to convince everyone that their risk tolerance is being tested, but not enough to shake their faith that US stocks are the highest performing and safest investment bet out there. US market continues a generally steady climb up to a new permanently high plateau around 2035. This will turn to have been an epic bubble to rival 1989 Japan however, and a lost decade or two or three follow.

[bthewalls]

Sorry for slight but related deviation……but isn’t increasing national and corporate debt the big global issues now?

What are the upper limits on USA national debt before it causes a market or dollar valuation issue? Etc

B

[NorCal]

I was reviewing and updating my asset allocation for the new year.

I made some minor tweaks. I previously held some sector specific ETF’s to balance out the tech-concentrated main index’s.  I decided to just move these to SCHD (dividend focused ETF) to accomplish the same thing. Now my domestic stocks are split evenly between SCHB, SCHA, and SCHD. It’s well diversified across sectors and company sizes while eliminating some complexity.

The only change that is somewhat influenced by current events is that I decided to put about 15% of my Fixed Income in a TIPS fund. My overall fixed income allocation is staying the same.  Diversifying bonds seems prudent, particularly as I have a comparable allocation in long bonds.

[ChpBstrd]

Sorry for slight but related deviation……but isn’t increasing national and corporate debt the big global issues now?

What are the upper limits on USA national debt before it causes a market or dollar valuation issue? Etc

Ray Dalio has some thoughts, based on significant historical research. In his mind, the U.S. is on the precipice of a debt crisis. You can subscribe to "How Countries Go Broke" to get the book emailed to you for free.
https://www.principles.com/

[41_swish]

I also think yesterday was a lesson in volatility. The U.S. markets basically live on tech. There were probably at least two or three more big up and down swings until it finishes slightly above average for the year.

[rocketpj]

What are your predictions for the TSX100?

I expect volatility.  Drops as the trade war kicks off and retaliatory gestures go back and forth, with occasional recoveries and then further drops.  Where it all ends, nobody knows.

How much do Canadians invest in the American markets? Is it common to buy an S&P 500 fund in CAD?

Most of us invest a fair amount in the US.  I'm about 1/3 US with my equity investments, and I know many people who are 50% or higher.

I used to.  I haven't sold any of my US equity stuff, but I did stop buying it.  Mostly because it was disproportionately large in my portfolio, but also because I think the US has elected a coalition of reality denying bomb throwers into government, so I have a lot less confidence in the legal and regulatory system that ACTUALLY 'make america great'.  If it transitions into the crony capitalist oligarchy that Trump and the techbros so obviously want then I'll be treating the US much like I treat my emerging market stocks - as a niche.

[EliteZags]

PLTR to the mooooooon