Where will the S&P 500 be on Dec 31, 2013?

[hybrid]

Mustachian investors, are you feeling bullish, bearish, or somewhere in the middle in regards to the S&P 500? 

[mgreczyn]

In my portfolio.

[matchewed]

I don't try to predict the market, is there a who cares option?

[tooqk4u22]

Where is it now?

[smedleyb]

It will close exactly where Bernanke wants it to close. 

[hybrid]

Where is it now?

Closed at 1691 on 9-27, down 0.4%.

[Cecil]

At an annual rate of 10%, I'd expect about a 2.4% increase between now and the end of the year.

So my prediction is 1732, plus or minus 40%.

[grantmeaname]

More importantly, where will the S&P 500 be on Dec 31, 2022, when I first need the money I have in stocks?

[ender]

At an annual rate of 10%, I'd expect about a 2.4% increase between now and the end of the year.

So my prediction is 1732, plus or minus 40%.

This cracked me up.

[hybrid]

I don't try to predict the market, is there a who cares option?

Yep.  Made it just for you.

[hybrid]

Interesting numbers so far.  The S&P was close to 1700 when this poll started, so loosely speaking any votes for 1700 and up indicated higher, and 1699 and down were lower.  And after 23 votes (not a lot, to be certain) it's about half and half, with 20 voters voting between 1600 and 1800, or less than 6% fluctuation either way between now and the end of the year.  The outliers are bearish, and no one is strongly bullish.  Will be curious to see how this plays out over the duration of the poll. 

[eyePod]

Funny because it's not going to change my investment strategy.  Granted, I was never one to say "oh it's up, let me pile money in since it's doing so well!"  I would just keep my 401k contributions in my target fund.  :-/  I've since improved and I can now say that I'm going to keep investing as well as possible and if there were a huge dip, I might be more inclined to dump a few grand over quickly from our house fund instead of just letting that grow at our shitty savings interest rate.

[workathomedad]

I don't even know what it is now!

[Half-Borg]

i think it will go up after the silly government shutdown issue has been resolved and be stable afterwards. So I'm voting 1700-1799.

[Belial]

IMHO, a more interesting question is when will the government shutdown / debt ceiling crisis drive stocks to their lowest prices?  And will the impact be greater on foreign or domestic stocks?

And before the market timing face punches come in, I was already planning on setting up a Roth IRA about now.  I just want to take advantage of the sale. 

[hybrid]

IMHO, a more interesting question is when will the government shutdown / debt ceiling crisis drive stocks to their lowest prices?  And will the impact be greater on foreign or domestic stocks?

And before the market timing face punches come in, I was already planning on setting up a Roth IRA about now.  I just want to take advantage of the sale.

No face punch from me.  If this were just a random September 30 and there was nothing newsworthy going on, then yeah, timing the market would be the same as betting against the house.  Sure, it might just work out for you but odds are it won't.

This isn't a random event.  It's one of those rare occasions where a problem is on the horizon, you get plenty of advance warning, and chances are quite good that stocks won't react favorably as that problem approaches.  I pulled out of the market during the debt ceiling debates a year or two ago and avoided losses, and then got right back in when the storm passed.  I don't do that sort of thing often, but I am also the kind of guy that doesn't put much stock (pardon the pun) into hard and fast rules with no exceptions.  This feels like one of those exceptions.  And I got out of the market midweek last week.  S&P has gone down 3 of the last 4 sessions including today.

When this resolves I get right back in and put the funds back on autopilot.

[grantmeaname]

And before the market timing face punches come in, I was already planning on setting up a Roth IRA about now.  I just want to take advantage of the sale.

That's still market timing.

[Half-Borg]

The question was: "Where will the S&P 500 be on Dec 31, 2013?"
I gave a vote and a reason, of course it's market timing, how can it not be?

My real money is not that influcend by US economy anyway, but I still don't feel much like investing right now, I might buy some Europe Stoxx 600 soon, not sure yet and not enough cash anyway.

[Freeyourchains2]

"Buy low, sell high" requires valuation skills and a little speculation skill whether on macro or micro scale economies.

A great read is The Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith.

[hybrid]

Poll closes in five days.

[hybrid]

Voting closes Monday morning.

[workathomedad]

It will probably be ~600

:-o

Kidding

[militaryincome]

I guess this just goes to show how useless it is to try to predict the future. I'm glad I didn't trade on my predictions.

I kinda hope it will slow down in 2014, so I can get some better prices.

No face punch from me.  If this were just a random September 30 and there was nothing newsworthy going on, then yeah, timing the market would be the same as betting against the house.  Sure, it might just work out for you but odds are it won't.

This isn't a random event.  It's one of those rare occasions where a problem is on the horizon, you get plenty of advance warning, and chances are quite good that stocks won't react favorably as that problem approaches.  I pulled out of the market during the debt ceiling debates a year or two ago and avoided losses, and then got right back in when the storm passed.  I don't do that sort of thing often, but I am also the kind of guy that doesn't put much stock (pardon the pun) into hard and fast rules with no exceptions.  This feels like one of those exceptions.  And I got out of the market midweek last week.  S&P has gone down 3 of the last 4 sessions including today.

When this resolves I get right back in and put the funds back on autopilot.

How'd that work out for you this time? I had considered pulling out, but I wasn't really following the news enough to make an "informed" decision. Did you buy back at a lower price than you sold?

[Stache In Training]

So it was 1848.36... Only 2 people had the right bracket.  Yep, can't predict the market.

[Mazzinator]

So it was 1848.36... Only 2 people had the right bracket.  Yep, can't predict the market.

Holy shit.. I was one of them...
***runs out to pick winning lotto numbers :)

[NinetyFour]

So where will it be on 12/31/14??  (Can someone pick the right answer two years in a row?  That would be quite impressive!!)

[Cecil]

I'd put the over/under about 2,030, as in it's a coin flip above or below that.

[NinetyFour]

Anyone else want to venture a guess for 12/31/2014?

[Cecil]

Well, would you look at that. We've now left 2030 in the dust and there's still a month to go.

[Water]

Well, would you look at that. We've now left 2030 in the dust and there's still a month to go.

2000-2099

[eyePod]

Well, would you look at that. We've now left 2030 in the dust and there's still a month to go.

2000-2099

I'm hoping for a huge drop because I'm rolling over a pension into an IRA in January! So would like a nice sale. :)

[skyrefuge]

I've been watching jlcollinsnh's prediction with a smile recently. http://jlcollinsnh.com/2014/01/01/1st-annual-louis-rukeyser-memorial-market-prediction-contest-2013-results-and-your-chance-to-enter-for-2014/

For those unaware, at the beginning of 2013, he started a contest to guess the 2013 ending value of the S&P 500, as a joke/experiment to show how worthless predictions are. To his embarrassment, he won his own contest in the 'high' and 'close' categories, guessing within 1.3% of the 'high' (guessed 1825 vs. actual 1849), and within 5.1% of the close (guessed 1754 vs. 1848).

He made new guesses for 2014, and at the moment he's poised to do even better than 2013!

As of 11/30 he's only 7.3% off the high (guessed 2218 vs. current 2068), only 2.8% off the close (guessed 2125 vs. 2068) and only 3.7% off the low (guessed 1806 vs. 1742).

So guess this last month of 2014 will determine whether or not he deletes his whole Stock Series, sells all his index funds, and returns to his days as an active trader!

[Stache In Training]

So guess this last month of 2014 will determine whether or not he deletes his whole Stock Series, sells all his index funds, and returns to his days as an active trader!

I do think it's funny that he kind of had to eat his own words.  However, picking where an index will close, is still much different than picking the individual stocks that will make it close there.  That's why he'll still never be an active trader again... and why we shouldn't either. Yes I know I'm preaching to the choir, but I just wanted to point out that nuance.