Author Topic: Where is Warren??  (Read 4046 times)

BicycleB

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 457
  • Location: Live Music Capital of the World
  • Older than the internet, but not wiser... yet
Re: Where is Warren??
« Reply #50 on: November 07, 2018, 12:20:29 PM »

Is rail transport going to look like the best freight option once there are fleets of autonomous electric semis available as an alternative?  Not so sure....

Isn't the advantage of rail relative to trucks that rail can carry heavier loads for a given energy expenditure?  That wouldn't change regardless of the trucks' autonomy level or power source, because it's related to vehicle size and the weight capacity of rail, isn't it?

Electric semis would be more ecological than gasoline ones, but wouldn't they still be less efficient than rail?

If electric were the key advantage, couldn't trains go electric?

Autonomous - couldn't trains become autonomous more easily than cars, if autonomy provides a significant advantage?

PS. Sorry if this sidetracks - haha! - from the Warren topic. Unsure if rail is great either, just asking based on prior (mis)"understanding" from other articles.


maizeman

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3191
Re: Where is Warren??
« Reply #51 on: November 07, 2018, 12:52:11 PM »
I think rail is supposed to be about 6x as energy efficient as hauling freight with an internal combustion engine powered vehicle.

A lot of (all?) modern locomotives are diesel/electric hybrids so that probably contributes in some part to that huge efficiency gap and having the trucking fleet go all electric might help them narrow that somewhat but my guess is that it wouldn't be enough to close the gap entirely.

But this is not at all my area of expertise, so other people please jump in if you know more.

Duke03

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 200
Re: Where is Warren??
« Reply #52 on: November 07, 2018, 01:14:53 PM »
When you divide the tonnage by fuel consumed rail is the most cost effective way to move freight other than floating it down a river... It basically boils down to you can move one ton of freight 350 miles on one gallon of fuel on a train.

UnleashHell

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5749
  • Age: 51
  • Location: Florida
  • Chapter IV - A New ... er.. something
Re: Where is Warren??
« Reply #53 on: November 07, 2018, 02:12:47 PM »
Trains.

Berkshires train play isn't just about transport - its land.
you have any idea how much land goes with that purchase. and running alongside those tracks is thousands of miles of fiber-optic cable that forms the backbone of information transportation in this country. How much is being collected in payments from the right to have that cable there?

talltexan

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2045
Re: Where is Warren??
« Reply #54 on: November 14, 2018, 09:19:48 AM »
The example of the public utilities having a lower p/e ratio is a poor one (I work for such a company):

Public utilities are expected to offset their lower growth with a dividend. BRK does not pay one.

Car Jack

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 890
Re: Where is Warren??
« Reply #55 on: November 19, 2018, 08:34:37 AM »
It's been suggested that BRK has lagged the market.  I suppose you can pick your time period and support this theory or the opposite.  I'll choose to present what I put my money on.  I was interested in picking up something that threw off no dividends as I got lots of bonuses last year, sending me into having to pay quarterly estimated taxes.  As such, I wanted to reduce my dividend income.  I've always thought of BRK to be like a single stock version of total US stock.  Yah, you could argue that this isn't accurate, but it's close enough for me.  So I bought a small stake at the beginning of May, selling some SCHB, Schwab US Broad market ETF.  Looking at the last 6 months (best line up of when I bought BRK/B), SCHB is down 1.7% and BRK/B is up 9.7%.  BRK took a big jump a few weeks ago (see my last post in this thread) and the price jumped about 10 points (5%) and has stuck. 

What about if Warren or Charlie die?  Well.....I think the price has this baked in.  Is there anyone who thinks they're going to be running BRK 20 years from now?  Going forward, I'll likely increase my stake in BRK as I get extra money to put into my taxable account.  For a bearing on me, I plan to retire in the next couple of years and will have 50 times my spending in liquid investment accounts plus no debt and a paid off house.  Parents for my wife and me are both in their mid 80's so there will be some inheritance as well, but we don't count on that......if they leave all of their money to the cat rescue shelter, that's fine with us.

Scandium

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2198
  • Location: EastCoast
Re: Where is Warren??
« Reply #56 on: November 19, 2018, 10:03:48 AM »
It's been suggested that BRK has lagged the market.  I suppose you can pick your time period and support this theory or the opposite.  I'll choose to present what I put my money on.  I was interested in picking up something that threw off no dividends as I got lots of bonuses last year, sending me into having to pay quarterly estimated taxes.  As such, I wanted to reduce my dividend income.  I've always thought of BRK to be like a single stock version of total US stock.  Yah, you could argue that this isn't accurate, but it's close enough for me.  So I bought a small stake at the beginning of May, selling some SCHB, Schwab US Broad market ETF.  Looking at the last 6 months (best line up of when I bought BRK/B), SCHB is down 1.7% and BRK/B is up 9.7%.  BRK took a big jump a few weeks ago (see my last post in this thread) and the price jumped about 10 points (5%) and has stuck. 

What about if Warren or Charlie die?  Well.....I think the price has this baked in.  Is there anyone who thinks they're going to be running BRK 20 years from now?  Going forward, I'll likely increase my stake in BRK as I get extra money to put into my taxable account.  For a bearing on me, I plan to retire in the next couple of years and will have 50 times my spending in liquid investment accounts plus no debt and a paid off house.  Parents for my wife and me are both in their mid 80's so there will be some inheritance as well, but we don't count on that......if they leave all of their money to the cat rescue shelter, that's fine with us.

Yeah makes sense, BRK is kinda total US, minus tech growth stock. Which is what's been suffering the largest losses lately. But also what's been driving the gains in the last decade.. So BRK might pay in the future, or might not, depending on which part of the market rises most. I have no idea, so I stick with total market. But who knows.

BicycleB

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 457
  • Location: Live Music Capital of the World
  • Older than the internet, but not wiser... yet
Re: Where is Warren??
« Reply #57 on: November 19, 2018, 12:26:51 PM »
@Car Jack, I like your view of BRK.

WynnDuffy73

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 34
Re: Where is Warren??
« Reply #58 on: November 22, 2018, 07:11:43 AM »
Warren Buffett is 88.  Charlie Munger is 94.  Nobody knows for sure yet who is going to run Berkshire Hathaway in the future, and whether they will have the same skill in picking companies to invest in. 

Most of us here prefer index investing, which as the PP pointed out includes some Berkshire Hathaway in it.  But if you want to sink 300k+ into a single A share, please feel free....

Totally agree.  Buffett had a hell of a run but Iím not handing over my money to someone who is 88 years old.  I have parents in their late 70ís and I have witnessed first hand their mental decline. 

powskier

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 324
Re: Where is Warren??
« Reply #59 on: November 29, 2018, 04:47:09 PM »
FYI: Berkshire is the 4th largest holding of VTI/VTSAX.