Author Topic: When is it okay to try to time the market?  (Read 4435 times)

BlueHouse

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When is it okay to try to time the market?
« on: February 12, 2018, 09:57:22 AM »
Over the past year, I've made more than I ever thought possible in the market.  In some investments, I doubled my money.  If I were gambling, I'd think "wow, I made a huge amount...don't get greedy, get out".  So why shouldn't I take some of the earnings out as capital gains, put those into something less risky (like pay off a debt for a known savings on interest), and then just earn as much as I can as fast as I can to start buying back into the market at a lower price? 

All the pundits are saying to expect more volatility in the short term and many are saying to expect lower returns in the long term.  If I believe this, wouldn't it make sense for me to try to time the market?

TheAnonOne

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Re: When is it okay to try to time the market?
« Reply #1 on: February 12, 2018, 10:18:07 AM »
Ultimately, it's your money. Paying off debt isn't a horrible idea.

If your like most here, piled into VTSAX INDEX, timing the market is a losing game. You may win once and a while but overall, it's a loss. It also adds a whole emotional level to investing, which is why. . .

*literally most people lose money in the market*

Let that sink in.

MDM

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Re: When is it okay to try to time the market?
« Reply #2 on: February 12, 2018, 11:47:11 AM »
There is a difference between timing the market (aka thinking you know better than everyone else) vs. rebalancing to a pre-set asset allocation, based on specific predefined criteria.

Rob_bob

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Re: When is it okay to try to time the market?
« Reply #3 on: February 12, 2018, 11:49:53 AM »
If you can afford to set aside some "play money" that might give you the opportunity to get trading out of your system.  Only use what you originally set aside, don't add to it if you are down.  If you do real well take some profits off the table from time to time and add it to your long term portfolio.

BlueHouse

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Re: When is it okay to try to time the market?
« Reply #4 on: February 12, 2018, 12:08:35 PM »
If you can afford to set aside some "play money" that might give you the opportunity to get trading out of your system.  Only use what you originally set aside, don't add to it if you are down.  If you do real well take some profits off the table from time to time and add it to your long term portfolio.

this may cure my desire to "beat the market".  Thanks.  I think I'll carve out a bit of play money. 

I'm also very aware that I didn't start making huge strides in investment saving until I stopped trying to beat or time the market and wrote out an investment policy and followed it.  It still doesn't cure my desire to win. 

Cycling Stache

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Re: When is it okay to try to time the market?
« Reply #5 on: February 12, 2018, 12:49:49 PM »
Over the past year, I've made more than I ever thought possible in the market.  In some investments, I doubled my money.  If I were gambling, I'd think "wow, I made a huge amount...don't get greedy, get out".  So why shouldn't I take some of the earnings out as capital gains, put those into something less risky (like pay off a debt for a known savings on interest), and then just earn as much as I can as fast as I can to start buying back into the market at a lower price? 

This analysis is completely wrong, although interestingly so, because the logical flaw might not be obvious. 

Assuming you don't have any special skills in gambling or in investing, the key difference is the expected win rate.

In gambling, the house wins, and your most likely expectation is that you will lose.  The longer and more often you play, the more likely that you will lose.  Thus, if you happen to be in the statistically unlikely position of being up, you should stop immediately because the odds with each and every play are that you will lose.  Of course, those are the same odds all the time, so the best time to stop is always as early as possible.  Indeed, the sense that your odds change based on a winning or losing streak is a common error called the "gambler's fallacy."

In the market, stocks go up over the long term.  That means that each dollar invested is statistically likely to appreciate in value.  If you don't know when stocks will go up or down (you don't), then you should always invest at the earliest possible time, and stay invested, because the odds each additional day are that you will be up rather than down.

dycker1978

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Re: When is it okay to try to time the market?
« Reply #6 on: February 12, 2018, 12:58:19 PM »
If you can afford to set aside some "play money" that might give you the opportunity to get trading out of your system.  Only use what you originally set aside, don't add to it if you are down.  If you do real well take some profits off the table from time to time and add it to your long term portfolio.

this may cure my desire to "beat the market".  Thanks.  I think I'll carve out a bit of play money. 

I'm also very aware that I didn't start making huge strides in investment saving until I stopped trying to beat or time the market and wrote out an investment policy and followed it.  It still doesn't cure my desire to win.

Umm... by your admission you are winning since you stopped trying to time the market.  Sit back relax and enjoy it, don't throw money away by trying to time the market. 

bridget

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Re: When is it okay to try to time the market?
« Reply #7 on: February 12, 2018, 01:42:42 PM »
Over the past year, I've made more than I ever thought possible in the market.  In some investments, I doubled my money.  If I were gambling, I'd think "wow, I made a huge amount...don't get greedy, get out".  So why shouldn't I take some of the earnings out as capital gains, put those into something less risky (like pay off a debt for a known savings on interest), and then just earn as much as I can as fast as I can to start buying back into the market at a lower price? 

This analysis is completely wrong, although interestingly so, because the logical flaw might not be obvious. 

Assuming you don't have any special skills in gambling or in investing, the key difference is the expected win rate.

In gambling, the house wins, and your most likely expectation is that you will lose.  The longer and more often you play, the more likely that you will lose.  Thus, if you happen to be in the statistically unlikely position of being up, you should stop immediately because the odds with each and every play are that you will lose.  Of course, those are the same odds all the time, so the best time to stop is always as early as possible.  Indeed, the sense that your odds change based on a winning or losing streak is a common error called the "gambler's fallacy."

In the market, stocks go up over the long term.  That means that each dollar invested is statistically likely to appreciate in value.  If you don't know when stocks will go up or down (you don't), then you should always invest at the earliest possible time, and stay invested, because the odds each additional day are that you will be up rather than down.

This is true if Blue House is invested in index funds, but the OP says that some of the investments have "doubled" in the past year.  Sounds like there might be some individual stocks in there, or funds that aren't broad-based index funds?  The index has been good the past year, but it hasn't doubled. 

Once you get out of index fund territory, the maxim you cited doesn't apply.  Individual companies or narrow funds can and do tank for good sometimes.   

ChpBstrd

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Re: When is it okay to try to time the market?
« Reply #8 on: February 12, 2018, 04:33:47 PM »
Zoom a ^SPX chart in and out a few times. Note how at large time intervals (e.g. a 50 year chart) the market rises fairly reliably. But at shorter intervals (i.e. days/weeks) the price is utterly random/unpredictable. This is why most people lose money with market timing. They're making a series of trades in the short term unpredictable market instead of the long term predictable market.

matchewed

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Re: When is it okay to try to time the market?
« Reply #9 on: February 13, 2018, 07:18:23 AM »
If you can afford to set aside some "play money" that might give you the opportunity to get trading out of your system.  Only use what you originally set aside, don't add to it if you are down.  If you do real well take some profits off the table from time to time and add it to your long term portfolio.

this may cure my desire to "beat the market".  Thanks.  I think I'll carve out a bit of play money. 

I'm also very aware that I didn't start making huge strides in investment saving until I stopped trying to beat or time the market and wrote out an investment policy and followed it.  It still doesn't cure my desire to win.

See I don't get this mentality in general. Engage in an activity to get a fix in order to prevent you from getting your fix elsewhere. Instead of buying an eightball why not just do a line instead to get it out of your system?

You are having a desire to do an activity which may harm you so the solution you take is to engage in that same activity on a minor scale in the hope that it scratches that itch. What if it is a successful activity? Then you've proven to yourself it can work and then why not do the same activity with higher risk (read more money)? My point is you may reinforce a bad decision by using this mental model.

CorpRaider

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Re: When is it okay to try to time the market?
« Reply #10 on: February 13, 2018, 07:24:22 AM »
I wouldn't start ad-hoc timing based on punditry or your market feel.  It might result in you becoming less stable and more prone to fear and intuition based errors.  Feeding the beast, if you will. 

Maybe you could allocate some small percentage to a trend following system, or if you are really just uncomfortable with the equity swings, you have too much equity, so adjust your allocation to take down the equity exposure and up some bonds or cash or whatever.

v8rx7guy

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Re: When is it okay to try to time the market?
« Reply #11 on: February 13, 2018, 08:50:56 AM »
I think we are going to see a lot of posts like this when the first major market downturn happens in the history of this forum.

Telecaster

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Re: When is it okay to try to time the market?
« Reply #12 on: February 13, 2018, 09:22:28 AM »
All the pundits are saying to expect more volatility in the short term and many are saying to expect lower returns in the long term.  If I believe this, wouldn't it make sense for me to try to time the market?

The pundits have no idea if the markets will be more or less volatile.   But logically, the markets can't grow faster than earnings for any long period time--and they have been.  So it isn't crazy to suggest returns will be lower in the future.   I don't know how you trade on that information, however. 

aboatguy

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Re: When is it okay to try to time the market?
« Reply #13 on: February 13, 2018, 11:36:13 AM »

libertarian4321

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Re: When is it okay to try to time the market?
« Reply #14 on: February 14, 2018, 03:43:23 AM »
If you can afford to set aside some "play money" that might give you the opportunity to get trading out of your system.  Only use what you originally set aside, don't add to it if you are down.  If you do real well take some profits off the table from time to time and add it to your long term portfolio.

this may cure my desire to "beat the market".  Thanks.  I think I'll carve out a bit of play money. 

I'm also very aware that I didn't start making huge strides in investment saving until I stopped trying to beat or time the market and wrote out an investment policy and followed it.  It still doesn't cure my desire to win.

I have foolishly avoided timing the market since 1986.

So of course, I haven't "won."  Nothing dramatic here.  I just kept investing steadily no matter what the pundits and gurus said.  Paid no attention to the froth and blather, whether the market was up or down.

I can't help thinking that a multi million dollar portfolio ain't bad for a loser.

Who knows, with a net worth nearly $5 million (which is going to take a big "hit" soon as we fund a scholarship program at my wife's old HS- so we'll be a bit north of $4.5 million), my boring old "buy and hold" strategy may have even done better than some of the market timing "winners?"

Nah, probably not.  Go ahead and show us that you can do what Warren Buffet admits he can't do. 

Go ahead and try to time the market.

I'll be curious to see how that works out for you...


BlueHouse

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Re: When is it okay to try to time the market?
« Reply #15 on: February 14, 2018, 10:07:56 AM »
Guys,
I'm not actually trying to "win".  I'm extremely risk averse and I'm trying to cut future losses.  I fully understand the math and the long-term outlook, but my age and my proximity to FI make my choices a little more favorable for more conservative policies.   

I'll try to explain it this way: 
1.  I already have my "old man money" set.  Based on conservative calculations, I don't have to work another day in my life and I will be FI in 4 years time, as long as I don't touch any of that "old man money" during those 4 years.
2.  For the "next 4 years money", I could earn just enough to pay my bills, but my tax situation is better if I earn top dollar and stash top dollar in tax-advantaged accounts.  Part-time work is not an option right now.
3.  So I look at it like:  how much is enough?  I don't want to blow the money I have now because there may not be time in MY timeline to get it back.  That's all there is to it.

If we have another 2000 or 2008, then my 4 year plan is screwed.  Yes, I'm timing the market because I think the market is high enough for me to seal in those gains and prepay some other part of my lifestyle.  Or you could say that my risk posture has changed and now I want a more conservative asset allocation. 

Help me find the downside of this goal.  And for those of you worried about me getting high on the rewards, you don't have to worry.  I'm not an addict for high-risk. 


MDM

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Re: When is it okay to try to time the market?
« Reply #16 on: February 14, 2018, 10:16:01 AM »
Or you could say that my risk posture has changed and now I want a more conservative asset allocation. 
If that is true, and not merely something one could say, then go forth and rebalance.

matchewed

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Re: When is it okay to try to time the market?
« Reply #17 on: February 14, 2018, 10:30:13 AM »
Guys,
I'm not actually trying to "win".  I'm extremely risk averse and I'm trying to cut future losses.  I fully understand the math and the long-term outlook, but my age and my proximity to FI make my choices a little more favorable for more conservative policies.   

this may cure my desire to "beat the market".  Thanks.  I think I'll carve out a bit of play money. 

I'm also very aware that I didn't start making huge strides in investment saving until I stopped trying to beat or time the market and wrote out an investment policy and followed it.  It still doesn't cure my desire to win.

So which is it? Are you trying to "win" (whatever the hell that means), or are you not trying to "win" (again wthtm)?

As MDM already pointed out then just adjust your AA accordingly and execute.

BlueHouse

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Re: When is it okay to try to time the market?
« Reply #18 on: February 22, 2018, 06:10:19 PM »
Guys,
I'm not actually trying to "win".  I'm extremely risk averse and I'm trying to cut future losses.  I fully understand the math and the long-term outlook, but my age and my proximity to FI make my choices a little more favorable for more conservative policies.   

this may cure my desire to "beat the market".  Thanks.  I think I'll carve out a bit of play money. 

I'm also very aware that I didn't start making huge strides in investment saving until I stopped trying to beat or time the market and wrote out an investment policy and followed it.  It still doesn't cure my desire to win.

So which is it? Are you trying to "win" (whatever the hell that means), or are you not trying to "win" (again wthtm)?

As MDM already pointed out then just adjust your AA accordingly and execute.
okay, Done.  Matchewed, if you're trying to point out that I contradicted myself, that was the point of the second quoted post where I said "okay, not actually trying to win".  I thought it might be obvious that I meant "oh, okay, so I shouldn't have written it that way, here's what I really meant".  So, when you ask "which is it"?  I think you already knew the answer.  (don't be a dick)

Is anybody going to take issue with the fact that I rebalanced at a time when the Dow graph was near its 52-week high?  Is anybody going to have a problem with what I rebalanced into?   I'm actually feeling pretty darn good about my decision and I feel like I cut a lot of risk from my overall portfolio by transferring out of the market altogether and into another asset class. 




aspiringnomad

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Re: When is it okay to try to time the market?
« Reply #19 on: February 24, 2018, 11:13:05 PM »
Honestly, this is one of the more confusing threads Iíve read on this forum. FWIW, the Dow has been near its 52 week high for most of the past several years and I donít think anyone quite understands what it is you rebalanced into. Seems like youíre good with whatever it was you did, so if thatís the case, you do you.

privatefarmer

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Re: When is it okay to try to time the market?
« Reply #20 on: February 25, 2018, 07:19:52 AM »
when you don't care about having money.

Telecaster

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Re: When is it okay to try to time the market?
« Reply #21 on: February 25, 2018, 12:03:10 PM »
Honestly, this is one of the more confusing threads Iíve read on this forum. FWIW, the Dow has been near its 52 week high for most of the past several years and I donít think anyone quite understands what it is you rebalanced into. Seems like youíre good with whatever it was you did, so if thatís the case, you do you.

^ This.  I was just about to type the same thing when I saw your post.  Moving out of the market entirely doesn't sound like re-balancing. 

FWIW, my mom has 100% of her portfolio in bonds.   She has plenty of money, and zero desire to stomach another 2008 type crash.  So she's done with the market.  If you want a port with less volatility, then more power to you.  I get it.  I don't think you'll save a dime with your timing strategy though. 

CBnCO

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Re: When is it okay to try to time the market?
« Reply #22 on: February 26, 2018, 01:43:24 PM »
Ok, I'm keenly aware that buying diversified index funds and having an age/risk appropriate allocation has proven to be a winning formula for most investors; but...

What if you have a considerable amount of money to invest now and you are not already in the market. By every historical valuation metric today's market is screaming "bubble" and, personally, I think it's all being kept afloat by financial engineering (low interest rates and government debt/spending).

Of course, who knows whether there will be a recession or crash anytime soon or a continuation of the bull market. I'm interested in somebody explaining what exactly is different this time that will keep valuations from eventually reverting to the historical mean? And, would this not be the time to employ caution and wait for valuations to be, at least, in the realm of normalcy before entering the market?

I interpret the original poster's viewpoint as he's more concerned with losing big than winning big at this point and that's mine as well. Once invested, I'll ride out the volatility; but, isn't the entry point important?

ChpBstrd

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Re: When is it okay to try to time the market?
« Reply #23 on: February 27, 2018, 01:07:08 PM »
There's always a rationale for why the market will crash in the near term future. Use the search function to find posts by people concerned about a "bubble", "crash", or "correction" and note the dates. Plot these dates against a chart of the S&P 500. Then go back and read the rationales...

-it's gone up too fast
-Brexit
-Greek debt crisis
-Yuan devaluation
-Government shutdowns
-Leverage/debt
-Volatility
-Tech stocks too expensive
-National debt spiraling out of control
-Terror attacks
-Hurricanes
-Interest rates sure to rise imminently
Etc...

These are all good sounding reasons, but in the world that matters corporate employees continued going to work each day making money for shareholders.

Telecaster

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Re: When is it okay to try to time the market?
« Reply #24 on: February 27, 2018, 02:05:11 PM »
Ok, I'm keenly aware that buying diversified index funds and having an age/risk appropriate allocation has proven to be a winning formula for most investors; but...

What if you have a considerable amount of money to invest now and you are not already in the market. By every historical valuation metric today's market is screaming "bubble" and, personally, I think it's all being kept afloat by financial engineering (low interest rates and government debt/spending).

Of course, who knows whether there will be a recession or crash anytime soon or a continuation of the bull market. I'm interested in somebody explaining what exactly is different this time that will keep valuations from eventually reverting to the historical mean? And, would this not be the time to employ caution and wait for valuations to be, at least, in the realm of normalcy before entering the market?

I interpret the original poster's viewpoint as he's more concerned with losing big than winning big at this point and that's mine as well. Once invested, I'll ride out the volatility; but, isn't the entry point important?

First, I agree with your main point that by any reasonable metric stocks are currently over valued.  But secondly, we don't know what the historical mean will be until all the data are in, right?  Every day adds a new data point.    That sounds like a minor point, but it really isn't and here's why:  The stock market itself has changed fairly dramatically.  In the early 20th century (and before), dividends, not price, accounted for the majority of stock market returns.  Dividends of course depress the stock price by the amount of the dividend.  Hence the P/E is decreased.

But over time companies have increasingly chosen to retain dividends, mostly for reasons of tax efficiency.  Today of course, and for a number of decades price is the primary driver of returns from stocks.  Retaining dividends makes the company more valuable, and drives the P/E upward.  Additionally in the early 1990s the S&P changed the rules how earnings were reported (mark to market) which tends to depress earnings on paper and pushes the P/E up.   In other words, you can't directly compare P/E ratios from the past with those of today, except in a general sort of way.

Another thing that needs to be considered is bond prices.  Stock investors require a premium over the risk-free rate of return.   Currently the 10-year T-bill (good proxy for the risk free rate) is about 2.9%.  But dividends alone are about 1.7%   So if you think stocks will only appreciate by a couple percent a year over the next ten years, then stocks are still attractive.  That's not an outlandish position. 

But the real problem with market timing is finding the entry point.  Since 1992, the P/E10 has been above its historical mean every year except for 2009.   So if in 1993 you were waiting for the historical average as entry point, you missed an enormous pile of gains.  A lot of people seem to think that market corrections are big blow offs.  They can be, but they can also be markets that simply trend sideways for years until the earnings catch up. 

Leisured

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Re: When is it okay to try to time the market?
« Reply #25 on: March 01, 2018, 08:29:43 PM »
On rare occasions, the market is clearly overpriced, as it was in 1987, before the great crash of that year. I knew that the market was overvalued for a year before thee crash, so stopped buying. Like a lot of people, I knew that the market was overvalued, but did not know when the correction would come, or how bad it would be.

So my market timing was only slight, but I avoided buying at a bad time. I sold nothing, rode the crash out, and my shares eventually went up again, as I knew they would. I have been watching the stock market since the lat sixties, and knew that there are rare occasions when the market is high, but the amateurs do not know that. The professionals sit on the sidelines, and the amateurs create their own crash.

eljefe-speaks

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Re: When is it okay to try to time the market?
« Reply #26 on: March 02, 2018, 07:26:40 AM »
I very recently got started in investing with a VTSMX purchase. My timing might have been terrible. "Trade wars are good, and easy to win.Ē http://lmgtfy.com/?q=trade+wars+are+good

Temptation to jump out very, very strong.

edit: added link
« Last Edit: March 02, 2018, 07:28:49 AM by eljefe-speaks »

BTDretire

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Re: When is it okay to try to time the market?
« Reply #27 on: March 02, 2018, 08:20:02 AM »
Ultimately, it's your money. Paying off debt isn't a horrible idea.

If your like most here, piled into VTSAX INDEX, timing the market is a losing game. You may win once and a while but overall, it's a loss. It also adds a whole emotional level to investing, which is why. . .

*literally most people lose money in the market*

Let that sink in.

 I just read a good quote about Market timing. "You need to be right twice", buying and then selling.
This can be a problem if you happen to get lucky once, and then think you have some special ability.

Mighty-Dollar

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Re: When is it okay to try to time the market?
« Reply #28 on: March 03, 2018, 01:15:22 AM »
Maybe when stocks have dropped 50% or more I'd over weight into stocks.

Alex239

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Re: When is it okay to try to time the market?
« Reply #29 on: March 04, 2018, 06:49:23 PM »
I day trade /ES futures. Timing is everything. Yet, its my full-time job and casual day trading is dangerous. Full time day trading can certainly be applied to the 10k hour rule. Its tough at the start but it gets easier, less emotional and much more automatic as time goes on.

boarder42

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Re: When is it okay to try to time the market?
« Reply #30 on: March 05, 2018, 09:13:57 AM »
I day trade /ES futures. Timing is everything. Yet, its my full-time job and casual day trading is dangerous. Full time day trading can certainly be applied to the 10k hour rule. Its tough at the start but it gets easier, less emotional and much more automatic as time goes on.

you should start a journal and list your trades the minute you're making them and the prices - i'd be interested to see if you're actually beating the market over the next 5 years. Minute you make them meaning once you buy something come here and post it once you sell come here an post it immediately. dont come here and post i sold xyz that i bought 4 days ago and made 1k anyone can do this and we have no idea if you're actually telling the truth.

Alex239

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Re: When is it okay to try to time the market?
« Reply #31 on: March 05, 2018, 11:16:43 AM »
I day trade /ES futures. Timing is everything. Yet, its my full-time job and casual day trading is dangerous. Full time day trading can certainly be applied to the 10k hour rule. Its tough at the start but it gets easier, less emotional and much more automatic as time goes on.

you should start a journal and list your trades the minute you're making them and the prices - i'd be interested to see if you're actually beating the market over the next 5 years. Minute you make them meaning once you buy something come here and post it once you sell come here an post it immediately. dont come here and post i sold xyz that i bought 4 days ago and made 1k anyone can do this and we have no idea if you're actually telling the truth.

We aren't talking about trades lasting a few days or even a few hours. More like a few minutes. I have been learning from this guy, he does daily chart reviews 4 days a week. I belong to a FB group where we all trade in a similar style. Warning - It will sound like a foreign language unless you have day traded futures or forex. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qSq5-6g_e78

Scandium

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Re: When is it okay to try to time the market?
« Reply #32 on: March 05, 2018, 11:25:30 AM »
We aren't talking about trades lasting a few days or even a few hours. More like a few minutes. I have been learning from this guy, he does daily chart reviews 4 days a week. I belong to a FB group where we all trade in a similar style. Warning - It will sound like a foreign language unless you have day traded futures or forex. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qSq5-6g_e78

Haha! thanks for that, that was hilarious! Looking at old charts, going "this would have been a great point to enter". "you should have gotten out here". "get in before start of this run".. ROFL.
If that's what it takes I could make an "instructional video" too!

This seems appropriate here


Alex239

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Re: When is it okay to try to time the market?
« Reply #33 on: March 05, 2018, 12:19:55 PM »
We aren't talking about trades lasting a few days or even a few hours. More like a few minutes. I have been learning from this guy, he does daily chart reviews 4 days a week. I belong to a FB group where we all trade in a similar style. Warning - It will sound like a foreign language unless you have day traded futures or forex. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qSq5-6g_e78

Haha! thanks for that, that was hilarious! Looking at old charts, going "this would have been a great point to enter". "you should have gotten out here". "get in before start of this run".. ROFL.
If that's what it takes I could make an "instructional video" too!

This seems appropriate here


Without context of what price action is and what the chart is actually presenting your response is appropriate. There are 3 kinds of day traders long term. Ones that make money, ones that sell their "education" and ones that lose money and bail usually without discipline. Emotional discipline is probably 80% of the equation. Mack doesn't charge for his review videos as they are just that, review videos, he doesn't have a "trading room" he doesn't hawk a specific service or indicators. He has just been doing this style of trading for almost 2 decades and it seems to work for him. The mechanics are easy the emotional execution is the hard part. I am still trading a very small account but I am up about ~20% for the month of February and that includes the wide market sellout in the first 3 days of Feb. I didn't even take any trades today. I worked through the reasoning for a few and took one on my play money account and it was a winner that would have met my cash goal for the day, but as a review candidate it was a weak entry that just happened to work.

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Cycling Stache

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Re: When is it okay to try to time the market?
« Reply #34 on: March 05, 2018, 12:25:13 PM »
We aren't talking about trades lasting a few days or even a few hours. More like a few minutes. I have been learning from this guy, he does daily chart reviews 4 days a week. I belong to a FB group where we all trade in a similar style. Warning - It will sound like a foreign language unless you have day traded futures or forex. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qSq5-6g_e78

Haha! thanks for that, that was hilarious! Looking at old charts, going "this would have been a great point to enter". "you should have gotten out here". "get in before start of this run".. ROFL.
If that's what it takes I could make an "instructional video" too!

This seems appropriate here


Without context of what price action is and what the chart is actually presenting your response is appropriate. There are 3 kinds of day traders long term. Ones that make money, ones that sell their "education" and ones that lose money and bail usually without discipline. Emotional discipline is probably 80% of the equation. Mack doesn't charge for his review videos as they are just that, review videos, he doesn't have a "trading room" he doesn't hawk a specific service or indicators. He has just been doing this style of trading for almost 2 decades and it seems to work for him. The mechanics are easy the emotional execution is the hard part. I am still trading a very small account but I am up about ~20% for the month of February and that includes the wide market sellout in the first 3 days of Feb. I didn't even take any trades today. I worked through the reasoning for a few and took one on my play money account and it was a winner that would have met my cash goal for the day, but as a review candidate it was a weak entry that just happened to work.

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I'm up $1 million in the last 4 years.  Ask me how.

Scortius

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Re: When is it okay to try to time the market?
« Reply #35 on: March 05, 2018, 12:49:20 PM »
We aren't talking about trades lasting a few days or even a few hours. More like a few minutes. I have been learning from this guy, he does daily chart reviews 4 days a week. I belong to a FB group where we all trade in a similar style. Warning - It will sound like a foreign language unless you have day traded futures or forex. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qSq5-6g_e78

Haha! thanks for that, that was hilarious! Looking at old charts, going "this would have been a great point to enter". "you should have gotten out here". "get in before start of this run".. ROFL.
If that's what it takes I could make an "instructional video" too!

This seems appropriate here


Without context of what price action is and what the chart is actually presenting your response is appropriate. There are 3 kinds of day traders long term. Ones that make money, ones that sell their "education" and ones that lose money and bail usually without discipline. Emotional discipline is probably 80% of the equation. Mack doesn't charge for his review videos as they are just that, review videos, he doesn't have a "trading room" he doesn't hawk a specific service or indicators. He has just been doing this style of trading for almost 2 decades and it seems to work for him. The mechanics are easy the emotional execution is the hard part. I am still trading a very small account but I am up about ~20% for the month of February and that includes the wide market sellout in the first 3 days of Feb. I didn't even take any trades today. I worked through the reasoning for a few and took one on my play money account and it was a winner that would have met my cash goal for the day, but as a review candidate it was a weak entry that just happened to work.

Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk

Daily cash goals? Good Lord... you are definitely onto 'something'.

Alex239

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Re: When is it okay to try to time the market?
« Reply #36 on: March 05, 2018, 12:52:04 PM »
We aren't talking about trades lasting a few days or even a few hours. More like a few minutes. I have been learning from this guy, he does daily chart reviews 4 days a week. I belong to a FB group where we all trade in a similar style. Warning - It will sound like a foreign language unless you have day traded futures or forex. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qSq5-6g_e78

Haha! thanks for that, that was hilarious! Looking at old charts, going "this would have been a great point to enter". "you should have gotten out here". "get in before start of this run".. ROFL.
If that's what it takes I could make an "instructional video" too!

This seems appropriate here


Without context of what price action is and what the chart is actually presenting your response is appropriate. There are 3 kinds of day traders long term. Ones that make money, ones that sell their "education" and ones that lose money and bail usually without discipline. Emotional discipline is probably 80% of the equation. Mack doesn't charge for his review videos as they are just that, review videos, he doesn't have a "trading room" he doesn't hawk a specific service or indicators. He has just been doing this style of trading for almost 2 decades and it seems to work for him. The mechanics are easy the emotional execution is the hard part. I am still trading a very small account but I am up about ~20% for the month of February and that includes the wide market sellout in the first 3 days of Feb. I didn't even take any trades today. I worked through the reasoning for a few and took one on my play money account and it was a winner that would have met my cash goal for the day, but as a review candidate it was a weak entry that just happened to work.

Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk

I'm up $1 million in the last 4 years.  Ask me how.
How? I imagine it has something to do with starting at a much higher cash value say somewhere in the neighborhood of $800k. Regularly adding more savings and letting your Vanguard fund keep going? I mean my long term account is doing fine but it's has stagnated a bit because I haven't been fully employed by someone else for almost 2 years. I enjoy hanging out with my dog everyday and keeping the house and seeing my fiance all of the hours she isn't at her cushy gov job. MMM is all about choices right? I'm not fretting about stacking away every last penny of savings for some drawdown in the future. I like my day trading job as long as it keeps paying the bills and I can add to my long term account while not working for someone else. So to restate my answer to the Ops question I day trade futures contracts and timing(in a way) is important in this area of trading. Day trading is NOT investing. It takes skill, patience and experience. I liken it to being a parking valet at an extremely high end restaurant or hotel. There is plenty of money on the fringes as far as tips to extract a nice income without having to deal with customers in any capacity. Does this make sense? I also don't recommend day trading unless your personality is somewhat anti social and you like a combination of psychology and numbers with a deep love of why markets do what they do on any timeframe.

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Scandium

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Re: When is it okay to try to time the market?
« Reply #37 on: March 05, 2018, 12:55:46 PM »
I liken it to being a parking valet at an extremely high end restaurant or hotel. There is plenty of money on the fringes as far as tips to extract a nice income without having to deal with customers in any capacity. Does this make sense?

No it absolutely does not. Please elaborate.
From the video you linked to, it involves reading tea leaves, sorry "charts", and betting which direction the market will go minute by minute, then placing a bet on that movement? And hoping you're right (lucky) more often than you're wrong (unlucky)?

Alex239

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Re: When is it okay to try to time the market?
« Reply #38 on: March 05, 2018, 01:05:55 PM »
I liken it to being a parking valet at an extremely high end restaurant or hotel. There is plenty of money on the fringes as far as tips to extract a nice income without having to deal with customers in any capacity. Does this make sense?

No it absolutely does not. Please elaborate.
From the video you linked to, it involves reading tea leaves, sorry "charts", and betting which direction the market will go minute by minute, then placing a bet on that movement? And hoping you're right (lucky) more often than you're wrong (unlucky)?
It's ok Scandium, I thought this thread was about calling the top?! I don't need Yacht Money or even Yacht tender money. I will sure as heck stand around those SEC/FBI guys and pick up those $100 bills Jordan Belfort is throwing off the side of the Yacht in Wolf of Wall Street. I'm not exposing my longterm savings and investments to this risk. Nor am I yolo'ing my small day trade account. If I manage to blow it up I've done something seriously wrong. Jesus this isn't about dick wagging either. Calling the top is equally as funny as calling the bottom and crawling to my white Lamborghini wasted on ludes. The retirement police are strong in here.

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matchewed

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Re: When is it okay to try to time the market?
« Reply #39 on: March 05, 2018, 01:54:02 PM »
I liken it to being a parking valet at an extremely high end restaurant or hotel. There is plenty of money on the fringes as far as tips to extract a nice income without having to deal with customers in any capacity. Does this make sense?

No it absolutely does not. Please elaborate.
From the video you linked to, it involves reading tea leaves, sorry "charts", and betting which direction the market will go minute by minute, then placing a bet on that movement? And hoping you're right (lucky) more often than you're wrong (unlucky)?
It's ok Scandium, I thought this thread was about calling the top?! I don't need Yacht Money or even Yacht tender money. I will sure as heck stand around those SEC/FBI guys and pick up those $100 bills Jordan Belfort is throwing off the side of the Yacht in Wolf of Wall Street. I'm not exposing my longterm savings and investments to this risk. Nor am I yolo'ing my small day trade account. If I manage to blow it up I've done something seriously wrong. Jesus this isn't about dick wagging either. Calling the top is equally as funny as calling the bottom and crawling to my white Lamborghini wasted on ludes. The retirement police are strong in here.

Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk

No one is questioning whether you think you're retired. Just whether you can time the market.

Scandium

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Re: When is it okay to try to time the market?
« Reply #40 on: March 05, 2018, 02:11:40 PM »
I liken it to being a parking valet at an extremely high end restaurant or hotel. There is plenty of money on the fringes as far as tips to extract a nice income without having to deal with customers in any capacity. Does this make sense?

No it absolutely does not. Please elaborate.
From the video you linked to, it involves reading tea leaves, sorry "charts", and betting which direction the market will go minute by minute, then placing a bet on that movement? And hoping you're right (lucky) more often than you're wrong (unlucky)?
It's ok Scandium, I thought this thread was about calling the top?! I don't need Yacht Money or even Yacht tender money. I will sure as heck stand around those SEC/FBI guys and pick up those $100 bills Jordan Belfort is throwing off the side of the Yacht in Wolf of Wall Street. I'm not exposing my longterm savings and investments to this risk. Nor am I yolo'ing my small day trade account. If I manage to blow it up I've done something seriously wrong. Jesus this isn't about dick wagging either. Calling the top is equally as funny as calling the bottom and crawling to my white Lamborghini wasted on ludes. The retirement police are strong in here.

Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk

No one is questioning whether you think you're retired. Just whether you can time the market.

You understood any of that?? Sounded like Jim Cramer hopped up on disco biscuits so I didn't know how to respond!

I don't need Yacht Money or even Yacht tender money.
stand around those SEC/FBI guys and pick up those $100 bills
yolo'ing my small day trade account.
crawling to my white Lamborghini wasted on ludes.

Cycling Stache

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Re: When is it okay to try to time the market?
« Reply #41 on: March 05, 2018, 02:30:57 PM »
I liken it to being a parking valet at an extremely high end restaurant or hotel. There is plenty of money on the fringes as far as tips to extract a nice income without having to deal with customers in any capacity. Does this make sense?

No it absolutely does not. Please elaborate.
From the video you linked to, it involves reading tea leaves, sorry "charts", and betting which direction the market will go minute by minute, then placing a bet on that movement? And hoping you're right (lucky) more often than you're wrong (unlucky)?
It's ok Scandium, I thought this thread was about calling the top?! I don't need Yacht Money or even Yacht tender money. I will sure as heck stand around those SEC/FBI guys and pick up those $100 bills Jordan Belfort is throwing off the side of the Yacht in Wolf of Wall Street. I'm not exposing my longterm savings and investments to this risk. Nor am I yolo'ing my small day trade account. If I manage to blow it up I've done something seriously wrong. Jesus this isn't about dick wagging either. Calling the top is equally as funny as calling the bottom and crawling to my white Lamborghini wasted on ludes. The retirement police are strong in here.

Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk

No one is questioning whether you think you're retired. Just whether you can time the market.

You understood any of that?? Sounded like Jim Cramer hopped up on disco biscuits so I didn't know how to respond!

I don't need Yacht Money or even Yacht tender money.
stand around those SEC/FBI guys and pick up those $100 bills
yolo'ing my small day trade account.
crawling to my white Lamborghini wasted on ludes.

Markets closed and up $10K today.

Going to be wearing hundies for undies!

Alex239

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Re: When is it okay to try to time the market?
« Reply #42 on: March 05, 2018, 02:50:03 PM »
I liken it to being a parking valet at an extremely high end restaurant or hotel. There is plenty of money on the fringes as far as tips to extract a nice income without having to deal with customers in any capacity. Does this make sense?

No it absolutely does not. Please elaborate.
From the video you linked to, it involves reading tea leaves, sorry "charts", and betting which direction the market will go minute by minute, then placing a bet on that movement? And hoping you're right (lucky) more often than you're wrong (unlucky)?
It's ok Scandium, I thought this thread was about calling the top?! I don't need Yacht Money or even Yacht tender money. I will sure as heck stand around those SEC/FBI guys and pick up those $100 bills Jordan Belfort is throwing off the side of the Yacht in Wolf of Wall Street. I'm not exposing my longterm savings and investments to this risk. Nor am I yolo'ing my small day trade account. If I manage to blow it up I've done something seriously wrong. Jesus this isn't about dick wagging either. Calling the top is equally as funny as calling the bottom and crawling to my white Lamborghini wasted on ludes. The retirement police are strong in here.

Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk

No one is questioning whether you think you're retired. Just whether you can time the market.

You understood any of that?? Sounded like Jim Cramer hopped up on disco biscuits so I didn't know how to respond!

I don't need Yacht Money or even Yacht tender money.
stand around those SEC/FBI guys and pick up those $100 bills
yolo'ing my small day trade account.
crawling to my white Lamborghini wasted on ludes.

reddit.com/r/WallStreetBets

matchewed

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Re: When is it okay to try to time the market?
« Reply #43 on: March 05, 2018, 02:53:00 PM »
I liken it to being a parking valet at an extremely high end restaurant or hotel. There is plenty of money on the fringes as far as tips to extract a nice income without having to deal with customers in any capacity. Does this make sense?

No it absolutely does not. Please elaborate.
From the video you linked to, it involves reading tea leaves, sorry "charts", and betting which direction the market will go minute by minute, then placing a bet on that movement? And hoping you're right (lucky) more often than you're wrong (unlucky)?
It's ok Scandium, I thought this thread was about calling the top?! I don't need Yacht Money or even Yacht tender money. I will sure as heck stand around those SEC/FBI guys and pick up those $100 bills Jordan Belfort is throwing off the side of the Yacht in Wolf of Wall Street. I'm not exposing my longterm savings and investments to this risk. Nor am I yolo'ing my small day trade account. If I manage to blow it up I've done something seriously wrong. Jesus this isn't about dick wagging either. Calling the top is equally as funny as calling the bottom and crawling to my white Lamborghini wasted on ludes. The retirement police are strong in here.

Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk

No one is questioning whether you think you're retired. Just whether you can time the market.

You understood any of that?? Sounded like Jim Cramer hopped up on disco biscuits so I didn't know how to respond!

I don't need Yacht Money or even Yacht tender money.
stand around those SEC/FBI guys and pick up those $100 bills
yolo'ing my small day trade account.
crawling to my white Lamborghini wasted on ludes.

I did coke once...

j/k


Alex239

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Re: When is it okay to try to time the market?
« Reply #44 on: March 05, 2018, 03:33:54 PM »