when do we call for the bear?

[mistymoney]

pretty grim out there today.....

[Watchmaker]

pretty grim out there today.....

Is it? Good thing I'm inside then.

[dividendman]

pretty grim out there today.....

Is it? Good thing I'm inside then.

60 degrees and sunny where I am

[simonsez]

Does your IPS tell you to act differently if the situation is qualified a certain way?

[PDXTabs]

Does your IPS tell you to act differently if the situation is qualified a certain way?

My IPS tells me to get excited in a bear market because stonks are on sale.

[Adventine]

Does your IPS tell you to act differently if the situation is qualified a certain way?

My IPS tells me to get excited in a bear market because stonks are on sale.

Stonks, stonks, stonks!

[DaTrill]

Does your IPS tell you to act differently if the situation is qualified a certain way?

My IPS tells me to get excited in a bear market because stonks are on sale.

Be careful what you wish for.  I still remember people getting excited about the NASADQ hitting 4,000 in 2000.  It eventually bottomed at 1100 a few years later.  Major selloffs can cascade and never come back.  Nobody can predict if companies like PTON, TSLA, AMC, GME, ZM, ROKU can sustain operations without the support of high stock prices.  I'm normally a 98/2 investor and will probably settle at 50/50 after today, no tech mostly boring index.         

[PDXTabs]

Does your IPS tell you to act differently if the situation is qualified a certain way?

My IPS tells me to get excited in a bear market because stonks are on sale.

Be careful what you wish for.  I still remember people getting excited about the NASADQ hitting 4,000 in 2000.  It eventually bottomed at 1100 a few years later.  Major selloffs can cascade and never come back.  Nobody can predict if companies like PTON, TSLA, AMC, GME, ZM, ROKU can sustain operations without the support of high stock prices.  I'm normally a 98/2 investor and will probably settle at 50/50 after today, no tech mostly boring index.       

Well, my IPS also tells me to stay at least 90% global market cap weighted. The stonks part was a joke, except to the extent that it is a cute way to spell stocks.

[waltworks]

Be careful what you wish for.  I still remember people getting excited about the NASADQ hitting 4,000 in 2000.  It eventually bottomed at 1100 a few years later.  Major selloffs can cascade and never come back.  Nobody can predict if companies like PTON, TSLA, AMC, GME, ZM, ROKU can sustain operations without the support of high stock prices.  I'm normally a 98/2 investor and will probably settle at 50/50 after today, no tech mostly boring index.       

And yet, if you just left your money where it was in good old Y2K (in the S&P500 or something similar, that is) you'd be up 392% as of today. If you were picking tech stonks you might be broke, of course.

But hey, feel free to freak out and change your asset allocation all you want. You've got a good shot at considerably extending your career!

-W

[Weisass]

I mean, call it what you want, but by the end of the day….

[chevy1956]

Is anyone doing anything. My take is that I have enough cash/bonds to last a couple of years and I do nothing. I track my portfolio in a spreadsheet along with expenses. I've written down my stock portfolio significantly which means when I check my funds it appears high rather than low. It's a stupid psychological trick but it works.

[boarder42]

What is going on here.

OP and those questioning what people are doing in times like today need to start re evaluating their emotional relationship with their 8nvestments and probably need to stop looking at it daily. Nothing changes we don't time markets here we don't invest in unicorn fart coins. If you want conversations on that topic the internet is full of YouTube chart readers. 

I was down 20k this morning made 32k by day end. Seems like doing nothing is still working.

[Blender Bender]

Is anyone doing anything. My take is that I have enough cash/bonds to last a couple of years and I do nothing. I track my portfolio in a spreadsheet along with expenses. I've written down my stock portfolio significantly which means when I check my funds it appears high rather than low. It's a stupid psychological trick but it works.

Not selling anything. I owned x% of USA economy months ago and this did not change.
If market goes more down then maybe will do some more shopping.

FI and still working part time as software engineer. Pleasure plus a fallback. So, no need to mess with my stache.
All my assets feel good since I would buy them again. No dead meat.

[chevy1956]

Is anyone doing anything. My take is that I have enough cash/bonds to last a couple of years and I do nothing. I track my portfolio in a spreadsheet along with expenses. I've written down my stock portfolio significantly which means when I check my funds it appears high rather than low. It's a stupid psychological trick but it works.

Not selling anything. I owned x% of USA economy months ago and this did not change.
If market goes more down then maybe will do some more shopping.

FI and still working part time as software engineer. Pleasure plus a fallback. So, no need to mess with my stache.

I think it's easier if you are working because you just keep chucking in and it's cheaper. I'm retired and your portfolio drops. In stating that I'm not stressed at all as I expect the market to drop 50% and that is why I have cash/bonds. I reckon we have at least 4 years of cash/bonds/dividends to use prior to having to sell stocks.

[Blender Bender]

Is anyone doing anything. My take is that I have enough cash/bonds to last a couple of years and I do nothing. I track my portfolio in a spreadsheet along with expenses. I've written down my stock portfolio significantly which means when I check my funds it appears high rather than low. It's a stupid psychological trick but it works.

Not selling anything. I owned x% of USA economy months ago and this did not change.
If market goes more down then maybe will do some more shopping.

FI and still working part time as software engineer. Pleasure plus a fallback. So, no need to mess with my stache.

I think it's easier if you are working because you just keep chucking in and it's cheaper. I'm retired and your portfolio drops. In stating that I'm not stressed at all as I expect the market to drop 50% and that is why I have cash/bonds. I reckon we have at least 4 years of cash/bonds/dividends to use prior to having to sell stocks.

Understood. 4 years of buffer sounds good to me 👍
Quality assets should come back sooner or later.

[Travis]

What is going on here.

OP and those questioning what people are doing in times like today need to start re evaluating their emotional relationship with their 8nvestments and probably need to stop looking at it daily. Nothing changes we don't time markets here we don't invest in unicorn fart coins. If you want conversations on that topic the internet is full of YouTube chart readers. 

I was down 20k this morning made 32k by day end. Seems like doing nothing is still working.

If it wasn't for you lot I'd have no idea anything was happening. My next stock purchase isn't until the 1st because it always is.

According to Vanguard, the most successful investors are dead people because they don't touch their accounts.

[American GenX]

I wouldn't call it a bear.  Stocks were actually up today.  But I did use some dry powder on Friday catching some buys at near lows, that are up over 2% today.

[MoneyTree]

Threw in a small chunk of cash into VTI when things were down 3% this morning. The only reason I didn’t put in a lot more was because I start off every year low on cash because I front load my 401k and IRA contributions.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

At the end of 2021, markets were very optimistic... in the face of Fed rate hikes, overvalued stocks, high inflation that should end soon, and a pandemic that people don't expect to have more variants.  The market wasn't accepting uncertainty, so I felt 2022 was going to be a riskier than average year.

I sold 100% of my crypto, which would have been -24% and -38% YTD.  I sold my 2x Nasdaq calls, which would have been down -11% x 2 = -22% YTD.  I even had 5x S&P 500 calls that were up +100%, and sold those... those would have been down -7.4% x 5 = -37%.  I didn't expect 2022 to have bad returns this quickly, but I expected it to be a risky year - so far, that's been the case.

[ender]

let me know when the 12 month SP500 returns aren't 10%+ and I might consider it a bear.

[DaTrill]

Getting close to less than 10% 12-month return.  For me, the ringing of the bell was NFLX down 20% in a day.  This does not happen in a bull market.  This only happens in a bear market.  There will be places to make money in the markets, but the indexes are headed for trouble. 

[chevy1956]

let me know when the 12 month SP500 returns aren't 10%+ and I might consider it a bear.

I hear you but the bear has to come and it seems about time. The signs are also there that we are going to have a bear market. Firstly I don't pick markets or react so it's just BAU for me. I know that I'll get it wrong consistently and even if I get it right that doesn't mean I'll take the right action and make money. After stating that I think the big questions are how low it goes and maybe even more importantly how long do we have a bear market.

We had a massive drop over COVID times. It came straight back up.

[dividendman]

let me know when the 12 month SP500 returns aren't 10%+ and I might consider it a bear.

I hear you but the bear has to come and it seems about time. The signs are also there that we are going to have a bear market. Firstly I don't pick markets or react so it's just BAU for me. I know that I'll get it wrong consistently and even if I get it right that doesn't mean I'll take the right action and make money. After stating that I think the big questions are how low it goes and maybe even more importantly how long do we have a bear market.

We had a massive drop over COVID times. It came straight back up.

I hope we all realize "the bear" and "the bull" are not actual things that have personalities and abilities. They are just names for when markets go up/down some arbitrary amount (20% from a high/low). So... while 20% moves do occur, once it's a "bear market" i.e. the market retreats 20% from a high... it tells you absolutely nothing, really, except that stocks are now valued lower so that they are less risky than before the drop.

So... "the bear" may come, but it doesn't really mean much.

[chevy1956]

let me know when the 12 month SP500 returns aren't 10%+ and I might consider it a bear.

I hear you but the bear has to come and it seems about time. The signs are also there that we are going to have a bear market. Firstly I don't pick markets or react so it's just BAU for me. I know that I'll get it wrong consistently and even if I get it right that doesn't mean I'll take the right action and make money. After stating that I think the big questions are how low it goes and maybe even more importantly how long do we have a bear market.

We had a massive drop over COVID times. It came straight back up.

I hope we all realize "the bear" and "the bull" are not actual things that have personalities and abilities. They are just names for when markets go up/down some arbitrary amount (20% from a high/low). So... while 20% moves do occur, once it's a "bear market" i.e. the market retreats 20% from a high... it tells you absolutely nothing, really, except that stocks are now valued lower so that they are less risky than before the drop.

So... "the bear" may come, but it doesn't really mean much.

I like this idea. There is no need to stress or think about it much at all.

[Wintergreen78]

Why are people posting about bears? Has anything weird happened in the last week?

[PDXTabs]

Why are people posting about bears? Has anything weird happened in the last week?

yup

[Wintergreen78]

Why are people posting about bears? Has anything weird happened in the last week?

yup

That is a nasty bear!

[GuitarStv]

Why are people posting about bears? Has anything weird happened in the last week?

yup

That is a nasty bear!

Black bears are just looking for an easy meal, and tend to be easy to scare off.  I wouldn't like to have seen what happened if the guy tried the same with a grizzly . . . particularly the way he proffered his neck while ducking in like he did.

[YttriumNitrate]

Why are people posting about bears? Has anything weird happened in the last week?

yup

Florida man fights with bear... no wonder the meme stocks are reacting.

[ChpBstrd]

I'm down about $300k this month, so I sold about $40k in call options on Monday to reverse the tide.

It worked. The market noticed that the dumb money was cashing out and the Nasdaq is up 2.5% today. The bottom is nigh.

Send your thanks to my gofundme.

[Wintergreen78]

Why are people posting about bears? Has anything weird happened in the last week?

yup

That is a nasty bear!

Black bears are just looking for an easy meal, and tend to be easy to scare off.  I wouldn't like to have seen what happened if the guy tried the same with a grizzly . . . particularly the way he proffered his neck while ducking in like he did.

I was on a trip to Alaska and saw this advice posted: If a grizzly comes at you, play dead. If the grizzly starts to eat you, fight back.

All the grizzlies I saw took off running the other way when they saw me. Except a mom with two cubs she herded the cubs away, but one of them was really curious and kept turning back to get a better look at us.

[Scio5]

I didn't really have cash lying around for the 2020 dip, but my goal for 2022 was to save up two years of living expenses in cash (hopefully taking a mini-FIRE sabbatical soon) and I'm definitely having a harder time not throwing more money in! I rebalanced my asset allocation (90/10) just to feed the itch a tiny bit.

[chevy1956]

I didn't really have cash lying around for the 2020 dip, but my goal for 2022 was to save up two years of living expenses in cash (hopefully taking a mini-FIRE sabbatical soon) and I'm definitely having a harder time not throwing more money in! I rebalanced my asset allocation (90/10) just to feed the itch a tiny bit.

I got the cash to chuck in but I'd rather slowly spend that crash. I suppose and I'm not one to pick the market but inflation leads to increased interest rates which leads to asset bubbles deflating. I suggest the most vulnerable assets could crash massively. I'm glad I don't have one cent in cryptos.

[ender]

let me know when the 12 month SP500 returns aren't 10%+ and I might consider it a bear.

I hear you but the bear has to come and it seems about time. The signs are also there that we are going to have a bear market. Firstly I don't pick markets or react so it's just BAU for me. I know that I'll get it wrong consistently and even if I get it right that doesn't mean I'll take the right action and make money. After stating that I think the big questions are how low it goes and maybe even more importantly how long do we have a bear market.

We had a massive drop over COVID times. It came straight back up.

I hope we all realize "the bear" and "the bull" are not actual things that have personalities and abilities. They are just names for when markets go up/down some arbitrary amount (20% from a high/low). So... while 20% moves do occur, once it's a "bear market" i.e. the market retreats 20% from a high... it tells you absolutely nothing, really, except that stocks are now valued lower so that they are less risky than before the drop.

So... "the bear" may come, but it doesn't really mean much.

Not to mention taking them out of context is silly.

Is it really a bear market if the market goes up 25% one year but then drops 20% the next year?

I mean sure maybe it pedantically is but who the heck cares at that point.

[Villanelle]

With about 7 figures invested, this thread is literally the first I've heard about the market sucking yesterday, and from the sounds of it, today as well. 

Every time this comes up, people seem to find that hard to believe, but... I just don't care and since I don't want TV news, it's not something I'd hear much about.  I don't follow the market.  At all.  That will likely change to some extent with I'm withdrawing instead of investing, but for now... meh.

Slight bear is probably good for me since I'm still putting money it.  But like a little sun bear, so not too many people get too hurt.  Kodiak-sized bear is a lot of suffering, even if not for me personally.  But either way, it's not actionable, so I don't much care. 

That said, now that I know, the $15k in total market I sold recently to buy bonds, in order to rebalance per my IPS, seems nicely timed.  ASSuming, that is, that bonds fared better than stocks. 

[DaTrill]

The definition of a bear is a fall of 20% or more, but there is also a time component.  Corrections last a few weeks, bear markets last a few years/decades/centuries.  With a higher proportion of people being flippant about a bear market only makes them more likely to be large and last a long time.  Land in parts of the US are still in 100-year bear markets.  Silver is down 80% in 40 years.  People still trade silver everyday;) 

[chevy1956]

With a higher proportion of people being flippant about a bear market only makes them more likely to be large and last a long time.

I doubt it.

I do know something that is a lot more likely to lead to a bear market - interest rate rises. Inflation at 7% means interest rate rises are coming.

I'm glad I don't have any crypto now. It could all go belly up.

[vand]

There's no universally agreed definition of a bear market, it's just a widely used and accepted term for a meaningful decline in prices.

The 20% mark is a pretty useless barometer because it doesn't take into account the nature of the preceeding bull/bear market. Something that goes up 10 times in a year and then corrects 20% isn't in a bear market. Likewise a market that tanks 90% isn't in in a new bull market if it just dead cat bounces by 20%.

I also personally think there should be an element of duration about it, so it has to be a decline over a period of, let's say, at least 6 months from peak to trough. Thus, I don't see 1987 and 2020 as bear markets, just steep corrections.  They certainly didn't mark the end of the natural business cycle that signals major secular changes in underlying economic fundamentals.

[NorCal]

It will be good if some of the “OMG, stocks only go up forever” crowd gets a reality check while still (mostly) young and with plenty of time to pick up better investment behavior.

I won’t lie, a major correction that only rebounds over several years would be a big blow to plans. But it would also make FI much more secure when it happens.

Will this drop be a big reckoning, or just a minor drop?  I have no idea.

[DaTrill]

It will be good if some of the “OMG, stocks only go up forever” crowd gets a reality check while still (mostly) young and with plenty of time to pick up better investment behavior.

I won’t lie, a major correction that only rebounds over several years would be a big blow to plans. But it would also make FI much more secure when it happens.

Will this drop be a big reckoning, or just a minor drop?  I have no idea.

I remember as a child my father guiding me to go thru quite a bit of change to look for quarters, half dollars and silver dollars that were made before some date (60's-70's).  We then took that change that was worth roughly a few hundred and exchanged it for a few thousand and didn't understand it at the time.  That same change today might be worth a few hundred dollars.  The next bear was when a stranger offered my father 3x what our house was worth because it qualified to be converted into some kind of Arabian horse stall and we lived near a racetrack/auction house, a few months later all the stables in the area were empty.  Those were just a few of the first of probably 10 bear markets I've experienced.   

The saying "That's what makes a market" as some people will hold onto to the Bull market years after it has passed.  Not shorting as equity bear markets are notorious for rip your face off rallies that crush all but the most nimble and hedged bears.  If markets are still bumping along in 6 months and Fed is still hinting at more rate rises coming, I will call it a bear.  It's still just a correction right now, but IMHO, the bear has stopped hibernating and kind of grumpy.  Bears play with the market first, then start pouncing and pounding everyone.  Kind of like a Polar Bear hunting in the ice, first sniffs, sneaks then pounces. 

David Attenborough might agree to narrate this bear market.  The seal is being played by Meme/crypto traders.  We are at about the 1:00 point in the market where the seal can still swim away.  But if it's complacent, the seals fate might not end well.  The seal diving would be a relief rally, but it usually ends the same way.
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zNO0kxTClYo       

[dividendman]

It will be good if some of the “OMG, stocks only go up forever” crowd gets a reality check while still (mostly) young and with plenty of time to pick up better investment behavior.

I won’t lie, a major correction that only rebounds over several years would be a big blow to plans. But it would also make FI much more secure when it happens.

Will this drop be a big reckoning, or just a minor drop?  I have no idea.

I remember as a child my father guiding me to go thru quite a bit of change to look for quarters, half dollars and silver dollars that were made before some date (60's-70's).  We then took that change that was worth roughly a few hundred and exchanged it for a few thousand and didn't understand it at the time.  That same change today might be worth a few hundred dollars.  The next bear was when a stranger offered my father 3x what our house was worth because it qualified to be converted into some kind of Arabian horse stall and we lived near a racetrack/auction house, a few months later all the stables in the area were empty.  Those were just a few of the first of probably 10 bear markets I've experienced.   

The saying "That's what makes a market" as some people will hold onto to the Bull market years after it has passed.  Not shorting as equity bear markets are notorious for rip your face off rallies that crush all but the most nimble and hedged bears.  If markets are still bumping along in 6 months and Fed is still hinting at more rate rises coming, I will call it a bear.  It's still just a correction right now, but IMHO, the bear has stopped hibernating and kind of grumpy.  Bears play with the market first, then start pouncing and pounding everyone.  Kind of like a Polar Bear hunting in the ice, first sniffs, sneaks then pounces. 

David Attenborough might agree to narrate this bear market.  The seal is being played by Meme/crypto traders.  We are at about the 1:00 point in the market where the seal can still swim away.  But if it's complacent, the seals fate might not end well.  The seal diving would be a relief rally, but it usually ends the same way.
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zNO0kxTClYo       

um... what? haha. I read this and I still don't know what you're trying to say.... there will be a market slowdown or something?

[boarder42]

It will be good if some of the “OMG, stocks only go up forever” crowd gets a reality check while still (mostly) young and with plenty of time to pick up better investment behavior.

I won’t lie, a major correction that only rebounds over several years would be a big blow to plans. But it would also make FI much more secure when it happens.

Will this drop be a big reckoning, or just a minor drop?  I have no idea.

I remember as a child my father guiding me to go thru quite a bit of change to look for quarters, half dollars and silver dollars that were made before some date (60's-70's).  We then took that change that was worth roughly a few hundred and exchanged it for a few thousand and didn't understand it at the time.  That same change today might be worth a few hundred dollars.  The next bear was when a stranger offered my father 3x what our house was worth because it qualified to be converted into some kind of Arabian horse stall and we lived near a racetrack/auction house, a few months later all the stables in the area were empty.  Those were just a few of the first of probably 10 bear markets I've experienced.   

The saying "That's what makes a market" as some people will hold onto to the Bull market years after it has passed.  Not shorting as equity bear markets are notorious for rip your face off rallies that crush all but the most nimble and hedged bears.  If markets are still bumping along in 6 months and Fed is still hinting at more rate rises coming, I will call it a bear.  It's still just a correction right now, but IMHO, the bear has stopped hibernating and kind of grumpy.  Bears play with the market first, then start pouncing and pounding everyone.  Kind of like a Polar Bear hunting in the ice, first sniffs, sneaks then pounces. 

David Attenborough might agree to narrate this bear market.  The seal is being played by Meme/crypto traders.  We are at about the 1:00 point in the market where the seal can still swim away.  But if it's complacent, the seals fate might not end well.  The seal diving would be a relief rally, but it usually ends the same way.
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zNO0kxTClYo       

um... what? haha. I read this and I still don't know what you're trying to say.... there will be a market slowdown or something?

Maybe that's the point?

We don't know what the market will do it's confusing and irrational.

[Wintergreen78]

Are we out of the January 12-27 bear market?

Should I rotate from a defensive to aggressive asset allocation?

[boarder42]

Are we out of the January 12-27 bear market?

Should I rotate from a defensive to aggressive asset allocation?

I like to rotate from west to south every couple hours to make sure I can still pivot.

[GuitarStv]

Are we out of the January 12-27 bear market?

Should I rotate from a defensive to aggressive asset allocation?

I like to rotate from west to south every couple hours to make sure I can still pivot.

Indeed, one of the sages of our age recommended "If it's worth it, you've got to work it.  Put your thing down, flip it and reverse it".

[dividendman]

Are we out of the January 12-27 bear market?

Should I rotate from a defensive to aggressive asset allocation?

I like to rotate from west to south every couple hours to make sure I can still pivot.

Indeed, one of the sages of our age recommended "If it's worth it, you've got to work it.  Put your thing down, flip it and reverse it".

Ti esrever dna ti pilf nwod gnaht ym tup i.
Ti esrever dna ti pilf nwod gnaht ym tup i.

[DaTrill]

It will be good if some of the “OMG, stocks only go up forever” crowd gets a reality check while still (mostly) young and with plenty of time to pick up better investment behavior.

I won’t lie, a major correction that only rebounds over several years would be a big blow to plans. But it would also make FI much more secure when it happens.

Will this drop be a big reckoning, or just a minor drop?  I have no idea.

I remember as a child my father guiding me to go thru quite a bit of change to look for quarters, half dollars and silver dollars that were made before some date (60's-70's).  We then took that change that was worth roughly a few hundred and exchanged it for a few thousand and didn't understand it at the time.  That same change today might be worth a few hundred dollars.  The next bear was when a stranger offered my father 3x what our house was worth because it qualified to be converted into some kind of Arabian horse stall and we lived near a racetrack/auction house, a few months later all the stables in the area were empty.  Those were just a few of the first of probably 10 bear markets I've experienced.   

The saying "That's what makes a market" as some people will hold onto to the Bull market years after it has passed.  Not shorting as equity bear markets are notorious for rip your face off rallies that crush all but the most nimble and hedged bears.  If markets are still bumping along in 6 months and Fed is still hinting at more rate rises coming, I will call it a bear.  It's still just a correction right now, but IMHO, the bear has stopped hibernating and kind of grumpy.  Bears play with the market first, then start pouncing and pounding everyone.  Kind of like a Polar Bear hunting in the ice, first sniffs, sneaks then pounces. 

David Attenborough might agree to narrate this bear market.  The seal is being played by Meme/crypto traders.  We are at about the 1:00 point in the market where the seal can still swim away.  But if it's complacent, the seals fate might not end well.  The seal diving would be a relief rally, but it usually ends the same way.
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zNO0kxTClYo       

um... what? haha. I read this and I still don't know what you're trying to say.... there will be a market slowdown or something?

Maybe that's the point?

We don't know what the market will do it's confusing and irrational.

Yep, much of the market action is hidden and below the water.  One only knows the outcome in the aftermath.  Now that the third general has been shot (NFLC, PYPL and META) this is all the hints I need to assume the probability of bear market is high.  There are 10,000,000+ actions that could prevent this and why shorting a bear market is one of the surest ways to have a short investment career.  I will be much better off if the bull continues but protecting myself and FIRE plans in case it doesn't.  Anyone cheering for a correction or bear has never lived through one as they are brutal and crush a lot of good people.   

[Villanelle]

Are we out of the January 12-27 bear market?

Should I rotate from a defensive to aggressive asset allocation?

You should do both.  Half your profile should be in ~60% bonds and 40% equities, and the the other half should be in 5% bonds and 95% equites.  Make sure to keep both halves separate so they don't contaminate one another, or the bear might eat the bull, or the bull might gore the bear.  Both of those things are very, very bad. 

[chevy1956]

Are we out of the January 12-27 bear market?

Should I rotate from a defensive to aggressive asset allocation?

I get that this is a joke but this is exactly what you don't do. I still reckon we are going to have a proper bear market soon and this is probably the start. Interest rates are rising. Stocks will fall on the back of interest rate rises.

I don't change my portfolio and I'm not stressed at all.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

Stocks fell earlier in January because of new rate hikes plus the possibility the Fed might start dumping bonds.  I starting selling when CNN's "fear and greed" index showed "greedy", and now it's showing "fear".  CNBC's selection of analysts seem to also be more pessimistic.

I've generally heard -20% considered a "recession" or crash.  I don't know if that will happen, but at the end of 2021 I thought it was more likely in 2022.  I sold risky assets (crypto, leverage, high P/E tech stocks) before the January drops.

For the market, only buying and selling determines stock prices.  Passive investors (unless they "flip it and reverse it", to become active) don't factor into stock prices if they don't buy or sell.  So it's okay if passive investors are confused - they won't be doing anything about it.