I agree with others...VTSAX is by far the superior option in terms of risk and performance. If you really wanted to go into this healthcare fund, I'd make it a small holding out of your whole portfolio.
So I should not take the risk? Even though it has been doing very well over the 20 years? I can also throw a million facts about the health industry and how much it will continue to grow for decades to come. Still, the only factor you have is fear? is that the only drawback?
Since you're so insistent, I can give you quite a few reasons why healthcare might not grow.
No drug targets - the big issue facing big pharma. No more drug targets. We have nothing to target! Or running out of ideas. When was the last time you saw a new blood pressure medication? Or a new allergy medication? Or a new diabetic medication? Or a new statin drug? So many drugs are going generic and we have great drugs for many conditions already, no company will go into those disease states because even if the FDA passes it, insurers won't pay thousands for a very minimal if not equal benefit. Hence stocks like gilead not doing too hot now. I remember analysts raving about "Oh Gilead will hit $150 blah blah blah last year." Expect by next year for it to do well. Now what? Then the analysts say in their column, oh well i was a bit premature, i still maintain my belief in gilead, well now what? Bunch of baloney good thing I didn't listen to those people, the way they talk is like inspires the opposite of trust.
So long-term drug targets are a big problem. That's one reason you saw many mergers last year and consolidation. Big pharma don't even make their own drugs anymore. Buy the small companies and help them apply to the FDA.
Generics - you can argue biologics but that's a risk you'd have to take.
Millions of people getting older - well costs are getting cheaper, ever hear of the ACA? Big deal long way back in ancient times. Medicare negotiates prices, asking for blind bids on things like test strips. Drive prices down. Hospitals are closing and contracting. And what will happen when all the baby boomers die and there aren't so many old people around anymore. You gonna time the dying out of baby boomers? Let me know if you find out how.
Risk of political forces socializing healthcare. If the costs become so high and the push to make healthcare actually affordable somehow goes through, then what? Gonna time it? While they draft a new law? No one 100% knows the future. I know though 100% your health fund is more expensive.
The big fear I think is lack of targets though IMO. Again just opinion. But we hit every protein, receptor, inhibit, stimulate, do everything we can or god forbid we cure so many things, then what? Where do we go? Cybernetics? That'll be cool. Combination therapy? Stem cells? That and cost of developing drugs and recovering those costs show no signs of abating. IMO there's overvaluation but I honestly have no clue what a fair price is. You're infinitely better off with VTSAX as others said and the reasons they provided. But hey why not buy that fund, come check on us in 20 years and we can compare? Who knows, maybe you're right, you wanna bet on that uncertainty?