What are your bubble indicators?

[tooqk4u22]

Probably TSLA being worth more than Berkshire Hathaway, Walmart, or Facebook.

I was pondering that the early stages of a new bull market is characterised by the general public being excited by the product of a company while ignorant of its stock. In the latter stages of a bubble the general public are ignorant of the product of a company while being excited by its stock.

And the record levels of IPOs in 2020 and countles spacs with countless more blank check entities created to do more spacs, all of which don't make money and some don't even have products yet - sure seems bubble like to me.

As for TSLA, I am sorry but it was difficult to value a year ago so there is no f'ing way that anyone can argue its value with sincerity today, don't get me wrong I know there are plenty that are and will - its green innovation, tech company not an auto company, solar, batteries, blah blah blah blah.  For it to have even an absurdly high valuation in reasonable times (40x pe) its earnings would be $21billion per year - not far where it is currently hahaha

As for the SPACs, you should listen to some of the people managing them. While some are probably doing it just for the easy money in fees, others at least ‘claim’ that they are doing SPACs so that the general public can get access to investing in early stage companies. Rather than getting them once their growth has slowed and insiders are just trying to cash out.

In an early stage company, you don’t want them to be profitable. You want them to be growing so fast that they would be stupid not to be investing every dollar they have (along with taking on debt and outside investment) to grow and take over their market as quickly as possible. You are buying a promise of future profits some day down the road.

Sure, I heard it too democratization of the IPO for smaller companies, they are so altruistic - NOT AT ALL.  Its 100% easy money in an easy environment.  I do appreciate the access argument for the average investor, but one of the things that make early stage companies successful (besides reinvesting all cash) is discipline of said cash and founders/early personnel to get a big pay day at some point.  Angel and PE investors usually provide that discipline and motivation through varies raises - hit your marks, get more cash, hit your next mark, get more cash. 

 If the cash is front loaded and the founders/early personnel are suddenly rich the discipline and motivation drivers go out the window.   So I don't buy it. 

[MustacheAndaHalf]

...
Well, I'm 99% VT which includes both REITs and foreign equities. I said equities, I never said US non-REIT equities.

I can save you about 0.03% of expense ratio: split VT into VTI and VXUS.

Investing equally in VTI and VXUS gives a combined 0.055% expense ratio, or if you use current weights (57% VTI, 43% VXUS) you get a 0.0515% expense ratio.  Both of which improve on VT's 0.08% expense ratio, with the same holdings from the same company - all are Vanguard ETFs.

---
Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) could be making up for the lack of IPOs in 2020, but were already big in 2019.  Wikipedia's stats show a 30% increase from 2019 to 2020.  The numbers don't seem like bubble territory.
EDIT: I accidentally compared 2018 and 2019, when there was a 1.3x increase.  In 2020, there was a 6.4x increase.  Thanks to tooqk4u22's correction, I agree it could be bubble territory.

One of the many things I don't get about SPACs is why they accept $10/share, and then watch their stock rise much higher in the public market.  If it's clear every SPAC should be paying $12/share or more, why do companies keep accepting $10/share to hand over their stock?

[tooqk4u22]

...
Well, I'm 99% VT which includes both REITs and foreign equities. I said equities, I never said US non-REIT equities.

I can save you about 0.03% of expense ratio: split VT into VTI and VXUS.

Investing equally in VTI and VXUS gives a combined 0.055% expense ratio, or if you use current weights (57% VTI, 43% VXUS) you get a 0.0515% expense ratio.  Both of which improve on VT's 0.08% expense ratio, with the same holdings from the same company - all are Vanguard ETFs.

---
Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) could be making up for the lack of IPOs in 2020, but were already big in 2019.  Wikipedia's stats show a 30% increase from 2019 to 2020.  The numbers don't seem like bubble territory.

One of the many things I don't get about SPACs is why they accept $10/share, and then watch their stock rise much higher in the public market.  If it's clear every SPAC should be paying $12/share or more, why do companies keep accepting $10/share to hand over their stock?

Lack of IPOs in 2020, there were 218 raising $78Bil both are more than any year since 2014 that had 275 and $85bil.   So no there wasn't a shortage. 

And there were 248 SPAC offerings in 2020 raising $83 bil vs. 59 in 2019 raising $13.6bil.     https://spacinsider.com/stats/

So yeah, a big year and kinda bubble like IMO. 

Don't know for sure but I suspect the SPACs done in 2019 had better underwriting. 

[MustacheAndaHalf]

tooqk4u22 - Thank you, I was wrong.  I looked at $10B followed by $13B and thought that was a small increase... because I accidentally compared 2018 to 2019.  Given your data of $83B vs $13B, I'd agree that's extreme for 2020.  SPACs typically have to find a company to take public, or liquidate within 2 years.  So I guess that makes 2022 an interesting year for SPACs?

---
Investco QQQ (representing Nasdaq) gained +39% in 2019 and +49% in 2020 according to morningstar.
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/xnas/qqq/performance

Those seem like rather high returns that are unlikely to continue.  So I'd expect returns to be lower in 2021, but I don't know by how much.  It seems logical that companies like Amazon had more business during a lockdown, and certainly moviegoers had to settle for Netflix over actually seeing a movie.  Although a percentage of new customers will probably keep using online services, I think enough will depart to leave a mark on expected revenues.

I guess for me, it might make sense to sell QQQ and tech investments now, before things reopen.  Not necessarily a bubble, but unlikely to continue the +39%/+49% trend of the past 2 years.

[ChpBstrd]

Too bad SIGL doesn't have a put options market.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/signal-advance-stock-price-surge-elon-musk-tweet-privacy-app-2021-1-1029956384

No remaining doubt about the "dumb money".

[maizefolk]

Reminds me of the Long Island Iced Tea Corp/Long Blockchain Corp story from three years ago.

[tooqk4u22]

Too bad SIGL doesn't have a put options market.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/signal-advance-stock-price-surge-elon-musk-tweet-privacy-app-2021-1-1029956384

No remaining doubt about the "dumb money".

And the dumbest part is that once it came out that it was unrelated to Musk's tweet the stock still closed up 5x from where it did on Friday.   WTF is going on!

[hodedofome]

Probably TSLA being worth more than Berkshire Hathaway, Walmart, or Facebook.

I was pondering that the early stages of a new bull market is characterised by the general public being excited by the product of a company while ignorant of its stock. In the latter stages of a bubble the general public are ignorant of the product of a company while being excited by its stock.

And the record levels of IPOs in 2020 and countles spacs with countless more blank check entities created to do more spacs, all of which don't make money and some don't even have products yet - sure seems bubble like to me.

As for TSLA, I am sorry but it was difficult to value a year ago so there is no f'ing way that anyone can argue its value with sincerity today, don't get me wrong I know there are plenty that are and will - its green innovation, tech company not an auto company, solar, batteries, blah blah blah blah.  For it to have even an absurdly high valuation in reasonable times (40x pe) its earnings would be $21billion per year - not far where it is currently hahaha

As for the SPACs, you should listen to some of the people managing them. While some are probably doing it just for the easy money in fees, others at least ‘claim’ that they are doing SPACs so that the general public can get access to investing in early stage companies. Rather than getting them once their growth has slowed and insiders are just trying to cash out.

In an early stage company, you don’t want them to be profitable. You want them to be growing so fast that they would be stupid not to be investing every dollar they have (along with taking on debt and outside investment) to grow and take over their market as quickly as possible. You are buying a promise of future profits some day down the road.

Sure, I heard it too democratization of the IPO for smaller companies, they are so altruistic - NOT AT ALL.  Its 100% easy money in an easy environment.  I do appreciate the access argument for the average investor, but one of the things that make early stage companies successful (besides reinvesting all cash) is discipline of said cash and founders/early personnel to get a big pay day at some point.  Angel and PE investors usually provide that discipline and motivation through varies raises - hit your marks, get more cash, hit your next mark, get more cash. 

 If the cash is front loaded and the founders/early personnel are suddenly rich the discipline and motivation drivers go out the window.   So I don't buy it.

Discipline and motivation may go out the window for me (somebody hands me millions of dollars, you can bet I ain't working 60 hours a week again), but the kind of personality who starts and runs a fast growing company are overachievers. They want to take over the world. Having money isn't enough, total world domination is the only thing that satisfies their lust.

Amazon has been on top of the world for years now, but Bezos doesn't care. He hasn't taken over the entire world yet, so he still drives everyone like they are a startup. That's the kind of person to invest your money with, and the kind of people who run most of the successful companies out there.

[tooqk4u22]

...
Well, I'm 99% VT which includes both REITs and foreign equities. I said equities, I never said US non-REIT equities.

I can save you about 0.03% of expense ratio: split VT into VTI and VXUS.

Investing equally in VTI and VXUS gives a combined 0.055% expense ratio, or if you use current weights (57% VTI, 43% VXUS) you get a 0.0515% expense ratio.  Both of which improve on VT's 0.08% expense ratio, with the same holdings from the same company - all are Vanguard ETFs.

---
Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) could be making up for the lack of IPOs in 2020, but were already big in 2019.  Wikipedia's stats show a 30% increase from 2019 to 2020.  The numbers don't seem like bubble territory.

One of the many things I don't get about SPACs is why they accept $10/share, and then watch their stock rise much higher in the public market.  If it's clear every SPAC should be paying $12/share or more, why do companies keep accepting $10/share to hand over their stock?

Lack of IPOs in 2020, there were 218 raising $78Bil both are more than any year since 2014 that had 275 and $85bil.   So no there wasn't a shortage. 

And there were 248 SPAC offerings in 2020 raising $83 bil vs. 59 in 2019 raising $13.6bil.     https://spacinsider.com/stats/

So yeah, a big year and kinda bubble like IMO. 

Don't know for sure but I suspect the SPACs done in 2019 had better underwriting.

So here we are well into the year (21 days) and already up to 59 SPACs (total # done in 2019).  Sure, no bubble here, nothing to see here, move along.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

That quote misses a correction I made to the original post, so I'll repost here:

Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) could be making up for the lack of IPOs in 2020, but were already big in 2019.  Wikipedia's stats show a 30% increase from 2019 to 2020.  The numbers don't seem like bubble territory.
EDIT: I accidentally compared 2018 and 2019, when there was a 1.3x increase.  In 2020, there was a 6.4x increase.  Thanks to tooqk4u22's correction, I agree it could be bubble territory.

Another point about SPACs: the success / failure results are skewed by the time frame.  SPACs can succeed in months, but failures take 2 years to show up.  That makes 2020 SPACs look successful, because all of the failed attempts have until some time in 2022 before they declare failure and liquidate.

[Die_Wealthy]

What made me look for a thread exactly like this is two things that happened this past week.
1) My girlfriend's friend sent her an invitation to join Robinhood because if she refers enough people she gets 1 free "stock". This girl has a young child and doesnt make a lot of money and always tries to drag my girlfriend to ridiculous birthday celebrations such as VIP table with bottle service at clubs or trips to the Dominican Republic.
2) A coworker was lamenting to me and someone else separately that today was a bad day because his TLSA stock dropped a couple points that particular day. Later that day he told me he leases a new truck every SIX to TWELVE MONTHS because he "needs change". My brain was about to implode trying to comprehend this.

Now I dont want to come off like a snob, I'm pretty new to investing (3 years) and  I passively buy and hold index funds and am currently debt free. I've tried in the past to convince people to take finances serious and get into the FIRE movement but NOBODY is ever interested. So when I hear these types of people talk about trendy stocks or get interested in stocks it makes me wonder if these are the signs I've always heard about.

[maizefolk]

1) My girlfriend's friend sent her an invitation to join Robinhood because if she refers enough people she gets 1 free "stock". This girl has a young child and doesnt make a lot of money and always tries to drag my girlfriend to ridiculous birthday celebrations such as VIP table with bottle service at clubs or trips to the Dominican Republic.

I remember Robinhood used to run an ad about this on a number of podcasts I listen to. I think the options were one share of Sprint, Ford, and Apple when Sprint and Ford were around $5/share and Apple was around $500 (pre-split).* Remember thinking at the time it was striking they'd found a way to turn a regular referral bonus program into "intermittent reinforcement" (essentially gambling) which is tends to produce much bigger changes in people's behavior than a predictable and constant reward.

*It was a long time ago so I could be remembering the companies or share prices wrong.

[dividendman]

S&P 500 will be at 6000 by the end of the year.

[Die_Wealthy]

[/quote]

I remember Robinhood used to run an ad about this on a number of podcasts I listen to. I think the options were one share of Sprint, Ford, and Apple when Sprint and Ford were around $5/share and Apple was around $500 (pre-split).* Remember thinking at the time it was striking they'd found a way to turn a regular referral bonus program into "intermittent reinforcement" (essentially gambling) which is tends to produce much bigger changes in people's behavior than a predictable and constant reward.

*It was a long time ago so I could be remembering the companies or share prices wrong.
[/quote]

I havent used it but I've heard that Robinhood's interface is set up to be almost game or gambling like to keep people hooked. What you just said seems to further reinforce this

[PDXTabs]

As @mistymoney pointed out it Please teach me about TSLA, Chamath Palihapitiya told CNBC on Thursday that Tesla's stock could be worth three times its current valuation, which would make CEO Elon Musk the first trillionaire. - https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/chamath-palihapitiya-tesla-stock-price-target-elon-musk-net-worth-2021-1-1029941932

Tripling TSLA and leaving the rest of the market where it is would give Tesla the highest market cap on the planet. That's my new bubble indicator.

[ctuser1]

Not sure how to categorize this, but it sure feels like a bubble indicator:
   AMEX offers has a 100% cashback offer on Motley Fool membership.

[vand]

As @mistymoney pointed out it Please teach me about TSLA, Chamath Palihapitiya told CNBC on Thursday that Tesla's stock could be worth three times its current valuation, which would make CEO Elon Musk the first trillionaire. - https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/chamath-palihapitiya-tesla-stock-price-target-elon-musk-net-worth-2021-1-1029941932

Tripling TSLA and leaving the rest of the market where it is would give Tesla the highest market cap on the planet. That's my new bubble indicator.

I find it quite offensive that he tries to label his firm as Berkshire Hathaway 2.0.  The couldn't be more different.

[HPstache]

I'm starting to think that the bubble we're in is about to pop.  And, of course, I will do nothing but stay the course.  But here's what I'm thinking.  I think in the future it will be coined the "Retail investor bubble".  My theory is that the Gamestop shenanigans has made enough national media for most investors to see it and think "that ain't right", Gamestop will be the story everyone tells like the Pets.com / Enron of .com bubble.  Watching this unfold has made me realize personally, also why Tesla is where it is right now... it's the retail traders propping it up to levels it should not be.  This was probably obvious to many of the posters here who know a lot more than I do about investing, but when it's obvious to the layman (as you can tell by how I am describing my position) it the indicator that we are in for a correction.  I might be wrong, but I'm so confident... I might just rebalance :).   

[Steeze]

I found out today that a group of friends are trading options on robinhood. These guys have absolutely no insight to what they are doing, they just buy whatever option on whatever stock they can afford. Start with $100, if it works and you make $300, roll it into the next option. Rinse and repeat until you lose everything or retire. Is this the new normal? Seems frothy to me, damn.

[tooqk4u22]

So here we are well into the year (21 days) and already up to 59 SPACs (total # done in 2019).  Sure, no bubble here, nothing to see here, move along.

I take it back, SPACs are not a bubble indicator, bc the master of all investments formed one.....wait for it........COLIN KAEPERNICK!   That guy has been an investing genius for decades, Am I right?

WTF is going on!

[vand]

"TSLA BUYS BITCOIN" is as clear an indicator to me that we are now at full blown "this shit is gonna hurt on the way down" stage.


Back in the late 1980s Japanese companies would routinely buy the common stock of other Japanese companies. The thinking was that, because they would never sell their holdings, the supply would be increasingly restricted and so the high prices would be permanently sustained... yeah, it didn't turn out so well.

This, similarly, will end very badly.

[trollwithamustache]

...
Well, I'm 99% VT which includes both REITs and foreign equities. I said equities, I never said US non-REIT equities.

I can save you about 0.03% of expense ratio: split VT into VTI and VXUS.

Investing equally in VTI and VXUS gives a combined 0.055% expense ratio, or if you use current weights (57% VTI, 43% VXUS) you get a 0.0515% expense ratio.  Both of which improve on VT's 0.08% expense ratio, with the same holdings from the same company - all are Vanguard ETFs.

---
Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) could be making up for the lack of IPOs in 2020, but were already big in 2019.  Wikipedia's stats show a 30% increase from 2019 to 2020.  The numbers don't seem like bubble territory.

One of the many things I don't get about SPACs is why they accept $10/share, and then watch their stock rise much higher in the public market.  If it's clear every SPAC should be paying $12/share or more, why do companies keep accepting $10/share to hand over their stock?

Lack of IPOs in 2020, there were 218 raising $78Bil both are more than any year since 2014 that had 275 and $85bil.   So no there wasn't a shortage. 

And there were 248 SPAC offerings in 2020 raising $83 bil vs. 59 in 2019 raising $13.6bil.     https://spacinsider.com/stats/

So yeah, a big year and kinda bubble like IMO. 

Don't know for sure but I suspect the SPACs done in 2019 had better underwriting.

Do these IPO numbers not include SPAC Ipos?  Because SPACs are IPOing like crazy... then later buying companies that might have IPOd and merging them public.... so if the SPAC IPOs are not included that seems a bit disinengous of the data source.  SPACs would be shifting early the timing of when IPOs hit the market. sort of.

I think 10 SPACs IPOd yesterday? so yeah agree a bubble is forming.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

I take it back, SPACs are not a bubble indicator, bc the master of all investments formed one.....wait for it........COLIN KAEPERNICK!   That guy has been an investing genius for decades, Am I right?

In the past, events like that have been indicators of peak mania.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/colin-kaepernick-spac-blank-check-company-social-purpose-mission-advancement-2021-2-1030065429

I thought in 2020 IPOs and SPACs attracted similar levels of investment dollars?  But it looks like it's headed towards excess.

[ChpBstrd]

Maybe I should start a SPAC and short the market with it.

[frugalnacho]

I don't know what a SPAC is, but I want in.

[HPstache]

I don't know what a SPAC is, but I want in.

I listened to this podcast about a month and a half ago:

https://www.npr.org/2021/01/12/956169423/the-spac-is-back

Never heard of them before this.

[tooqk4u22]

I don't know what a SPAC is, but I want in.

I listened to this podcast about a month and a half ago:

https://www.npr.org/2021/01/12/956169423/the-spac-is-back

Never heard of them before this.

My dog should have one ready in a week or so - RPG 1 Poo Poo 4U.   You all can buy in early! It will be awesome.   

[MustacheAndaHalf]

My dog should have one ready in a week or so - RPG 1 Poo Poo 4U.   You all can buy in early! It will be awesome.

I can't wait for the distributions.

[maizefolk]

Garden variety SPACs are so last year. 2021 is the year of the SCALEs.

We are pioneering a new structure called SCALE, or Stakeholder-Centered Aligned Listed Equity, where returns for the sponsor are primarily dependent on the stock price performance of the company with which we enter into a business combination. Traditionally, sponsors of blank check companies purchase 20% of the issued stock at a nominal price that is awarded to the sponsor regardless of performance, and solely on the ability to close an initial business combination. Instead, in NightDragon Acquisition Corp.’s SCALE structure, our sponsor will earn its promote based on the occurrence of certain triggering events

[PDXTabs]

Does Colin Kaepernick getting into SPACs count?

I have nothing against Kaepernick, and I fully support his social justice work, but this would seem to be a little bit out of his wheelhouse?

EDIT: whoops, you folks already had this

[ChpBstrd]

Someone just told me Dogecoin is going to $1 so I should get in now before it goes higher.

Something tells me Tesla, crypto, and pot stocks are all the same frothy investment thesis.

[Steeze]

Someone just told me Dogecoin is going to $1 so I should get in now before it goes higher.

Something tells me Tesla, crypto, and pot stocks are all the same frothy investment thesis.

Buy investments high, get high gains. It makes sense - worked in college.

[frugalnacho]

Can't go wrong.  Combo it with mrmoneymustache's new margin loan strategy to amplify your gains.

[PDXTabs]

I think that my new favorite is: nonfungible tokens.

[Steeze]

Can't go wrong.  Combo it with mrmoneymustache's new margin loan strategy to amplify your gains.

Supercharge it by taking your 25% margin to a new broker and get another 25% margin which you take to a new broker and get another 25%. Few accounts later and you have close to 50% margin with only 25% exposure.

Or Refi your house to buy stock then get a margin loan and use it as a down payment on rentals.

[frugalnacho]

Can't go wrong.  Combo it with mrmoneymustache's new margin loan strategy to amplify your gains.

Supercharge it by taking your 25% margin to a new broker and get another 25% margin which you take to a new broker and get another 25%. Few accounts later and you have close to 50% margin with only 25% exposure.

Or Refi your house to buy stock then get a margin loan and use it as a down payment on rentals.

Obviously. I thought that went without saying.  Fractional reserve margin crypto investing. 

[PDXTabs]

It's like I find a new one every day:

'There's never been a time like this': Wall Street is piling into trading cards as prices soar

Talk about an everything bubble.

[waltworks]

Ok yeah, the sports cards thing is just terrifying. I feel like I need to start one of those "I'm not a market timer but..." threads.

Maybe I can get the jump on the hedge fund guys on the remaining Ty Beanie Babies... hell, those might actually be rare by now!

-W

[Steeze]

And I gave away my entire stash of 90's baseball cards about 2 months ago. Missed it. Even had some super rare WWE (WWF?) cards <- DW: "WHY DO YOU HAVE GAY PORN CARDS!?" she did not know what WWF was.

Edit: moved 10% of my net worth to cash / bonds today. now 80/20 instead of 90/10. Traded a VTSAX equivalent. Couldn't handle the pressure.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

I might have to buy one share of the "Shaq SPAC", just for the name.  It turns out celebrity SPACs have decided to leave other bubble indicators in the dust.  Besides Shaq, there's 3 other sports figures and a singer joining SPACs:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-celebrity-spacs-consider-shaq-222007933.html

Then there's sports team owners and politicians adding their name to SPACS:
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/04/jim-cramer-issues-caution-about-celebrity-spac-plays.html

[BicycleB]

My dog should have one ready in a week or so - RPG 1 Poo Poo 4U.   You all can buy in early! It will be awesome.

I can't wait for the distributions.

I might have to scoop one up!

[theoverlook]

It's like I find a new one every day:

'There's never been a time like this': Wall Street is piling into trading cards as prices soar

Talk about an everything bubble.

Oh, no.. one of my tenants (office building) started a sports card trading shop last year. He's in the bubble!

[waltworks]

When all this finally pops it's going to be epic.

Too bad I have no idea when that might happen. The trading cards and GME insanity make me think it might be soon, though.

-W

[HPstache]

It's like I find a new one every day:

'There's never been a time like this': Wall Street is piling into trading cards as prices soar

Talk about an everything bubble.

Oh, no.. one of my tenants (office building) started a sports card trading shop last year. He's in the bubble!

He's had a helluva year I am sure.  If anything, sports cards have doubled in the last year.

[waltworks]

Someone, just for the sake of performance art, needs to start a Tulip bulb futures business.

-W

[Steeze]

Someone, just for the sake of performance art, needs to start a Tulip bulb futures business.

-W

I suggest we create an ETF which invests only in SPACs which take public companies which exclusively invest in Rare Tulip Bulb Non-Fungible Token futures. It will be the first 3X Tulip Bulb NFT ETF

[BicycleB]

Tulips to the moon! Diamond Tulip hands!

[Steeze]

I just saw an add for transparentbusiness.com IPO.

The entire pitch was “IPOs make people rich, Amazon is up 10 million %, we have an IPO, it’s just 2$ a share, what are you waiting for? Get the pre-ipo shares now”

Had 0 information about their business, just random info about how great IPOs are. Was a 4min long ad on YouTube.

[markbike528CBX]

I just saw an add for transparentbusiness.com IPO.

The entire pitch was “IPOs make people rich, Amazon is up 10 million %, we have an IPO, it’s just 2$ a share, what are you waiting for? Get the pre-ipo shares now”

Had 0 information about their business, just random info about how great IPOs are. Was a 4min long ad on YouTube.

err.. isn't that a lack of transparency in their business?....  asking for a friend. 

Tl;Dr  ...   Lotsa claims, looks like micromanagement from here.

[ChpBstrd]

I just saw an add for transparentbusiness.com IPO.

The entire pitch was “IPOs make people rich, Amazon is up 10 million %, we have an IPO, it’s just 2$ a share, what are you waiting for? Get the pre-ipo shares now”

Had 0 information about their business, just random info about how great IPOs are. Was a 4min long ad on YouTube.

err.. isn't that a lack of transparency in their business?....  asking for a friend. 

Tl;Dr  ...   Lotsa claims, looks like micromanagement from here.

I think it's very transparent. There is no business, only an IPO. People don't want to buy businesses; they want an IPO. So there you go, an IPO!