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Learning, Sharing, and Teaching => Investor Alley => Topic started by: junioroldtimer on February 07, 2019, 02:22:33 PM

Title: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: junioroldtimer on February 07, 2019, 02:22:33 PM
I remain long-term optimistic on the US stock market but I'm short-term pessimistic. I think the sitting president is going to be impeached and there's going to be a knock-down, drag-out fight in which the markets temporarily plummet as all this Russia stuff comes to light.

I'll let you guys know how I do. I intend to sell 893 shares of VTSAX. I will buy back in when the price is significantly cheaper.

Current VSTAX price: $68.18

Cross your fingers for me or call me crazy. We'll see how this goes.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: JAYSLOL on February 07, 2019, 02:47:50 PM
Well, I wouldn't agree with the decision to sell, but I do appreciate you actually posting exactly what, when and how much you intend to sell (ahem, thorstach take note).  It should make for some good entertainment, educational case study or if things go well for you super internet bragging rights.  Good luck!
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: plog on February 07, 2019, 02:52:46 PM
Quote
president is going to be impeached and there's going to be a knock-down, drag-out fight in which the markets temporarily plummet as all this Russia stuff comes to light

I remember the first time I heard that exact statement---11/8/2016 .  The S&P closed at 2,139 on that date.  All those people are now in Canada and  still waiting to be proven right. 
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: braje on February 07, 2019, 03:13:23 PM
Curious as to what price you intend to buy back in is.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: UnleashHell on February 07, 2019, 03:15:33 PM
dude.
you created 7 identical threads.
if you can't use a forum then why do you think you can time the market?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: ILikeDividends on February 07, 2019, 03:23:45 PM
Good luck!

Good luck!

Good luck!

Good luck!

Good luck!

Good luck!

Good luck!
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: junioroldtimer on February 07, 2019, 03:34:45 PM
Sorry on the multiple threads, I was having some issues with my network connection and never got the confirmation page that my post went out. I've since removed them.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: junioroldtimer on February 07, 2019, 03:35:48 PM
I tried to remove them -- apparently I can't delete my own posts. I'll need a moderator to clean that mess up.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: junioroldtimer on February 07, 2019, 03:39:00 PM
dude.
you created 7 identical threads.
if you can't use a forum then why do you think you can time the market?

I don't know why your inference of my critical thinking skills hinge on the stability of the MMM forum but I wish you the best.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: junioroldtimer on February 07, 2019, 03:40:18 PM
Curious as to what price you intend to buy back in is.

I haven't worked that out but I have a sinking feeling that things are going to get worse before they get better.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Rob_bob on February 07, 2019, 03:42:36 PM
So what are you doing to time the market?  Just going to cash?  All or just some % of your portfolio?

If you really believe in a big sell off put some $ into the ProShares Short S&P 500 Inverse ETF ticker SH.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: junioroldtimer on February 07, 2019, 03:44:44 PM
Quote
president is going to be impeached and there's going to be a knock-down, drag-out fight in which the markets temporarily plummet as all this Russia stuff comes to light

I remember the first time I heard that exact statement---11/8/2016 .  The S&P closed at 2,139 on that date.  All those people are now in Canada and  still waiting to be proven right.

Robert Mueller is winding down his investigation. The president (liked Nixon) asked to stop being investigated. He is going to be found guilty of more than a handful of crimes.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: junioroldtimer on February 07, 2019, 03:45:22 PM
So what are you doing to time the market?  Just going to cash?  All or just some % of your portfolio?

If you really believe in a big sell off put some $ into the ProShares Short S&P 500 Inverse ETF ticker SH.

Yes, going back to cash for now.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Villanelle on February 07, 2019, 03:52:17 PM
Curious as to what price you intend to buy back in is.

I haven't worked that out but I have a sinking feeling that things are going to get worse before they get better.

This seems like a pretty key thing to figure out as part of this decision, no?  Otherwise, how will you know when you've reached "significantly cheaper"?  And will you create any kind of trigger to get back in the market if you aren't at that "cheaper" level?  Otherwise, it's possible you could actually never get back in the market, if there isn't the significant drop you are looking for.

Seems like these are questions you should answer ASAP.  I plan to buy back all shares/dollars when VTSAX reaches $60, or no matter what after 18 months, regardless of price." (Or "at 18 months I'll buy back half, and give the other half 18 months to hit $60, before buying that back, too.  Or whatever.)  That's actually executable, at least.  Otherwise, you are just flailing around without a plan.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: max9505672 on February 07, 2019, 03:59:17 PM
PTF
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: junioroldtimer on February 07, 2019, 04:12:19 PM
I'll be the first to admit it if this blows up in my face.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: MrThatsDifferent on February 07, 2019, 04:16:51 PM
Heís not going to be impeached, sadly. The worst (best for us) scenario would be resigning before impeachment. But this is DT, he wonít do that as it would hurt his brand. What will help his brand is simply to not run for a second term. Thereís no reason he should. He can say heís accomplished everything on earth during his first term and with Dems blocking him thereís no point for a second. Then he builds the TrumpTV network that was the original plan and becomes some conservative god, I guess. Although, NY will go after him hard and most likely get him on something, which canít be pardoned. That should be yummy but wonít impact the markets.

I donít think your doomsday scenario makes sense really. It would take something bigger than him to cause the scenario youíre describing. Anyways, might as well play the lottery too ;-)
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: solon on February 07, 2019, 04:36:18 PM
Have you actually sold the shares, yet? Be sure to post the date and share price when you sell.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: MissNancyPryor on February 07, 2019, 04:48:37 PM
Too bad MrPercentage never was so honest about his attempts to time things.  That dude lied A LOT.

I canít wish you good luck, I hope it is a bust, but I admire the moxie to be honest. 
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Brother Esau on February 07, 2019, 05:07:09 PM
Good luck!

Good luck!

Good luck!

Good luck!

Good luck!

Good luck!

Good luck!

Hahahaaaa!!!!
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: PDXTabs on February 07, 2019, 07:47:03 PM
Robert Mueller is winding down his investigation. The president (liked Nixon) asked to stop being investigated. He is going to be found guilty of more than a handful of crimes.

If he is smart, like Nixon, he will step down in exchange for a blanket pardon at the Federal level.

Good luck with the market timing. I tried some of that at the begging of his term and got burned. The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent, or something like that.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: ILikeDividends on February 07, 2019, 08:06:37 PM
Robert Mueller is winding down his investigation. The president (liked Nixon) asked to stop being investigated. He is going to be found guilty of more than a handful of crimes.

If he is smart, like Nixon, he will step down in exchange for a blanket pardon at the Federal level.
#1 A presidential pardon is only available for Federal crimes.  State convictions, such as some of what the SDNY is going after, cannot be pardoned by any President.

#2 Any federal criminals pardoned by the president lose any immunity granted under the 5th amendment for those crimes (since they can no longer be prosecuted for them).  So, once pardoned, they can be subpoenaed by a prosecutor or by Congress, and they have to answer questions, or do time for contempt until they do.  Any new acts of perjury committed in new testimony would be new crimes that can then be prosecuted.

Compared to Trump, Nixon was basically just guilty of Federal jaywalking.  Trump might well become the first president to trade the Oval Office in for a prison cell; regardless of whether he is impeached (and then convicted by the Senate) or not.

Trump is trapped in a box.  I don't think he is going to pardon anyone.  And if he doesn't run for -- and WIN -- a second term, the statute of limitations will not yet have expired for whatever he might be guilty of when he leaves (or is ejected from) office.  In other words, he can't resign, unless he actually is the innocent lamb he pretends to be.  And all indications are that his possible connections to many criminal activities within various jurisdictions cannot all be pardoned by a succeeding president; whomever that might turn out to be.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: PDXTabs on February 07, 2019, 08:22:58 PM
Robert Mueller is winding down his investigation. The president (liked Nixon) asked to stop being investigated. He is going to be found guilty of more than a handful of crimes.

If he is smart, like Nixon, he will step down in exchange for a blanket pardon at the Federal level.
#1 A presidential pardon is only available for Federal crimes.  State convictions, such as some of what the SDNY is going after, cannot be pardoned by any President.

I don't disagree, that's why I specified that the pardon would only be for Federal crimes. But I stand by my statement that if he is smart he will at least get that.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Trevor Reznik on February 08, 2019, 12:46:37 AM
Be great if it works, but what if good news is on the horizon and the market moves up.  At what point do you buy back in?  Or you just keep hanging out for the drop that doesn't come?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: junioroldtimer on February 08, 2019, 07:03:51 AM
Any point cheaper than $68.18 will be a win, though I'm expecting a steeper discount. The transaction is in progress, I will update this thread with the final sell price.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: junioroldtimer on February 08, 2019, 08:20:58 AM
892.9490 shares sold at $67.59 each for a total of $60,354.42.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: GoCubsGo on February 08, 2019, 08:46:42 AM
Is the $60K a large portion of your portfolio?  Just curious if this is a small slice of a larger equity portfolio or just a 5% gamble.  No need for specifics, just curious.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: junioroldtimer on February 08, 2019, 08:53:24 AM
All the marbles (in my taxable investment account).

I have a handful of other retirement accounts (HSA, 401ks, Roth, tIRA) totaling approximately $100k.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: economist on February 08, 2019, 08:56:47 AM
Oof. I'll say that as someone who isn't a fan of the current leadership, I still think timing the market for political reasons is a very dangerous game. The people who thought Obama was a socialist who would destroy the economy missed out on one of the greatest bull markets in history. The people who said we were due for a recession once Trump was elected have missed out on further, less spectacular, but still good gains.

Even during an impeachment trial, if one happens, the overwhelming majority of the government and economy will basically continue as it has been. The market cares much more about earnings and wage growth than it does politics.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Mississippi Mudstache on February 08, 2019, 09:12:46 AM
892.9490 shares sold at $67.59 each for a total of $60,354.42.

I don't agree with your logic, but kudos for giving us actual numbers to back up your trades.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: UnleashHell on February 08, 2019, 09:44:50 AM
dude.
you created 7 identical threads.
if you can't use a forum then why do you think you can time the market?

I don't know why your inference of my critical thinking skills hinge on the stability of the MMM forum but I wish you the best.

it looked funny. thats all.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: sol on February 08, 2019, 09:57:26 AM
892.9490 shares sold at $67.59 each for a total of $60,354.42.

I don't agree with your logic, but kudos for giving us actual numbers to back up your trades.

That was yesterday's (Feb7) vtsax closing price.  It's also noteworthy that he already missed the first wiggle, because between making a decision when this thread started and actually having the trade execute at end-of-day prices, vtsax dropped about 1%.  Nothing quite like starting out in the hole, amirite?

I used to play this game with my regular taxable investments, shoveling a few hundred dollars in per week and only getting end-of-day pricing.  It was always a game, where I was hoping that the market would drop between clicking the "buy" button and the trade actually executing at the end of the day, so that I could get slightly more fractional shares than I thought I was getting when I made the decision.  But junior is doing the reverse, pre-selling instead of pre-buying.

So far, the sp500 is red for the day.  Take your wins, Junior!  Buy back in today and claim victory!  Be an internet legend, the guy who timed the market and WON!
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: junioroldtimer on February 08, 2019, 10:34:34 AM
I put
892.9490 shares sold at $67.59 each for a total of $60,354.42.

I don't agree with your logic, but kudos for giving us actual numbers to back up your trades.

That was yesterday's (Feb7) vtsax closing price.  It's also noteworthy that he already missed the first wiggle, because between making a decision when this thread started and actually having the trade execute at end-of-day prices, vtsax dropped about 1%.  Nothing quite like starting out in the hole, amirite?

I used to play this game with my regular taxable investments, shoveling a few hundred dollars in per week and only getting end-of-day pricing.  It was always a game, where I was hoping that the market would drop between clicking the "buy" button and the trade actually executing at the end of the day, so that I could get slightly more fractional shares than I thought I was getting when I made the decision.  But junior is doing the reverse, pre-selling instead of pre-buying.

So far, the sp500 is red for the day.  Take your wins, Junior!  Buy back in today and claim victory!  Be an internet legend, the guy who timed the market and WON!

I put my order in before 4PM ET yesterday. I had already executed the sell order before posting on the forum.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: phildonnia on February 08, 2019, 11:00:29 AM
I have a fantasy portfolio on MarketWatch, where I concentrate all my market-timing genius.  I've discovered that I'm not a genius.  My strategy is generally to assume that whatever I hear on the news is overblown hype.  This often works well, but I did end up making several purchases of Pacific Gas & Electric, which is now in bankruptcy.

In real life, I hold boring diversified funds forever, and don't worry about it.  This approach has been very good to me.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: StressLess on February 08, 2019, 01:21:53 PM
To the OP

Sounds like you are risk averse. You should consider changing the fundamentals of your IPS / asset allocation.

I don't remember where I saw it... Maybe will Bernstein book but...

Never more than 75% equities and never less than 25% equities...

Portfolios with > 75% equities are not for the emotional types...
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: frugledoc on February 08, 2019, 02:09:47 PM
I remain long-term optimistic on the US stock market but I'm short-term pessimistic. I think the sitting president is going to be impeached and there's going to be a knock-down, drag-out fight in which the markets temporarily plummet as all this Russia stuff comes to light.

I'll let you guys know how I do. I intend to sell 893 shares of VTSAX. I will buy back in when the price is significantly cheaper.

Current VSTAX price: $68.18

Cross your fingers for me or call me crazy. We'll see how this goes.

an honourable market timer for once, actually posting details before the event.

Good luck!    What price will buy back in at, and do you have a Plan B if the market crashes up?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: MrThatsDifferent on February 08, 2019, 02:28:16 PM
But, wonít he have to pay CGT on what heís sold? And while the money is sitting outside eating little, isnít he losing all of that? So really, if you add it all up, he has to make up for the lost opportunity. Or am I missing something?

What a bizarre, unnecessary gamble.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Eric on February 08, 2019, 03:34:47 PM
892.9490 shares sold at $67.59 each for a total of $60,354.42.

I don't agree with your logic, but kudos for giving us actual numbers to back up your trades.

Seconded.

I don't know how you can look at the amount of volatility of the last 5 months and have any idea which direction it would go from here, but I'm definitely interested to watch and appreciate the transparency.

I do have one question.  Are you factoring the tax bill into the equation?

Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: sol on February 08, 2019, 03:52:34 PM
I put my order in before 4PM ET yesterday. I had already executed the sell order before posting on the forum.

I'm a little confused about why you first posted the price from two days ago when you submitted your order that was eventually executed at yesterday's price.

But no matter, you say you sold at $67.59  Today the market had a late hours rally and closed barely in the green, so you missed out on a tiny amount of gains by selling yesterday instead of continuing to hold. 

I also have at least $60k in my taxable account invested in vtsax, and today I am richer by doing nothing than you are by selling, by a tiny tiny amount.  Let's see what next week brings, shall we?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Boofinator on February 08, 2019, 03:59:22 PM
892.9490 shares sold at $67.59 each for a total of $60,354.42.

I don't agree with your logic, but kudos for giving us actual numbers to back up your trades.

Seconded.

I don't know how you can look at the amount of volatility of the last 5 months and have any idea which direction it would go from here, but I'm definitely interested to watch and appreciate the transparency.

I do have one question.  Are you factoring the tax bill into the equation?

Excellent point. Unless you can capital gains harvest, taxes will drag down any timing strategy by a significant amount.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: nsmall on February 08, 2019, 08:20:26 PM
I appreciate the OP for sharing what they are up too.  This was a real fun thread to read.

Can't you find a new asset allocation and play games with lets say $5,000????  Maybe I missed this, but are trying to increase your time to retire by making this gamble?

You have 100k invested, 63k in cash, that 63k is 39% of your total investments.  Again, I like your honesty and maybe you can be right, but most likely you will be wrong long term.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: ChpBstrd on February 08, 2019, 09:50:04 PM
1) Why not use stop-loss orders or options to create a position where, if you are incorrect about the market's future you still get to enjoy most of the market's gains over a period of years, and if you are right you lose very little? You can't do this with VTSAX but you could with SPY. Little to lose and lots to gain sounds much better than making a big binary bet on gut instinct.

2) Why sit in cash? At least buy a treasury bond and earn 2% per year instead of nothing.That's $1200/year.

3) By what mechanism would impeachment lead to reduced corporate earnings or projections of future earnings? Did you see how the market rallied during the federal shutdown just last month? Research has also shown that markets do better during periods of divided government and gridlock. Investors get excited when there is a low risk of disruptive legislation passing, and the impeachment process would represent full federal paralysis and distraction.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: brandino29 on February 08, 2019, 10:33:26 PM
Posting to follow.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: sol on February 12, 2019, 07:51:59 PM
892.9490 shares sold at $67.59 each for a total of $60,354.42.

I feel obligated to check in on this thread periodically for accountability purposes.

junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each.  Today's closing price was $68.64, meaning that he has cost himself $937.60 in his first first five days of trying to time the market.  Only three of those days were trading days!

All values reported here are assuming zero transaction costs and zero tax liabilities.  I sure hope none of that $60k sale was short term capital gains!


I'll be the first to admit it if this blows up in my face.

What's your timeline like for making that determination?  At what date and/or price are you planning to buy back in?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: JAYSLOL on February 12, 2019, 09:13:34 PM
What's your timeline like for making that determination?  At what date and/or price are you planning to buy back in?

Pretty sure the answer is "I'm winging it". 
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: theolympians on February 12, 2019, 09:56:20 PM
Question (It may have been written here, so this may be a repeat): Was the sale in a retirement account? If so any gains would not be taxed. However, if in a taxable account the sale would. Am I correct?

While I don't believe in the reasons (speculations) for his market timing, I am impressed he put up some numbers.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Much Fishing to Do on February 13, 2019, 05:41:36 AM
This is an awesome thread.  Let us know how and when you have a plan regarding buying back in, it sounds like maybe when or slightly after an impeachment is imminent? Or if no impeachment when if and when it appears he'll lose the election.  And if neither of those then maybe at the end of next term? 

I used to enjoy doing this but was always such a wimp and did it with such a small portion of my acct I just decided to bet sports with that money instead.  THough one thing I did do differently is I always used my IRAs and not my taxable so I didnt have to worry about any tax implications (or even having to keep up with the transactions for tax purposes at all)
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: MrOnyx on February 13, 2019, 06:10:25 AM
Oh boy, the latest episode of "watch someone on the MMM forums try to time the market"!

Like others have said though, good on you and thanks for sharing actual numbers rather than just spouting words with no material.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Blueberries on February 13, 2019, 08:58:28 AM
Timing the general market isn't for me, but good luck! 

Timing the general market is a tough game, even for those who successfully time stock purchases.  But, this thread really does give insight into why many people fail at trading.  You can't expect to be successful without a plan.  It's no different than any other venture in which you attempt to make money.  Sure, some get lucky without a plan, but they are the minority.  Their luck only reinforces that if they did it you can do it. 

I hope this works out for the OP. 
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: JAYSLOL on February 13, 2019, 09:25:58 AM
Timing the general market isn't for me, but good luck! 

I hope this works out for the OP.

I do too, but mostly because I'd love a few years of real nice discounts. 
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: talltexan on February 13, 2019, 09:32:44 AM
I still can't figure out why Trump being impeached would cause a stock market plunge.

1973-1974 was a horrendous bear market.

But 1998-1999 wasn't. And there was an impeachment in there, too.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: jps on February 13, 2019, 09:35:37 AM
This thread is helping me vicariously live out my market timing fantasies. All of the fun, none of the losses.

Thanks for the favor, OP.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: MrOnyx on February 13, 2019, 09:52:12 AM
I still can't figure out why Trump being impeached would cause a stock market plunge.

1973-1974 was a horrendous bear market.

But 1998-1999 wasn't. And there was an impeachment in there, too.

Off the top of my head, I can't think of any particular political event like this that caused a market drop, but let's go along with it anyway!

Also, I like to think that Trump being impeached is on the list of 'things we kinda expect to happen at some point', which means it'll have even less impact than it otherwise would have.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Joseppi on February 13, 2019, 09:57:20 AM
Wonder if Brexit will have a negative (positive for buyers!) impact on markets?? I'm sure OP is hoping so.

Interested observer.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: stashing_it on February 13, 2019, 10:01:13 AM
My question to the OP is, when would you buy back in if you are wrong?

Let's say that instead of a Trump impeachment what we get is
- Mueller investigation ramps up, some Trump aides are charged / convicted of perjury and obstruction, but no one is charged with Russia collusion, and Trump is not charged with anything
- There is some border deal that avoids any painful shutdown
- There is a China deal that improves the trade / IP theft situation

And let's say that SP 500 is up 10% by the end of the year

Do you take your missed gains then, and buy back in, or remain sitting out?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: sol on February 13, 2019, 10:09:53 AM
Timing the general market isn't for me, but good luck! 

I hope this works out for the OP.

I do too, but mostly because I'd love a few years of real nice discounts.

You just had a 20% decline back in December, remember?  What more do you want?

Have we already forgotten what the forum was like in December?  So much doom and gloom, "the recession is here" talk and lots of people posting their six figure losses.  The top was in, right?

Oh wait, it's almost like we're all terrible at timing the market.  Because things have been great since then, instead of terrible.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: theolympians on February 13, 2019, 10:41:46 AM
The news is always bad. Experts are always worried. If you are being affected by news reports, look away and return in a year.

One caveat: Sanders is elected prez, Booker is vice-prez, and AOC is appointed Special Minister of the Economy and Restorative Justice. That happens I'll cash out and head to .....to.....to......I'll tell you later.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: JAYSLOL on February 13, 2019, 10:54:36 AM
Timing the general market isn't for me, but good luck! 

I hope this works out for the OP.

I do too, but mostly because I'd love a few years of real nice discounts.

You just had a 20% decline back in December, remember?  What more do you want?


I know, and I dumped in everything I could without going into debt or selling my organs on the black market.  I'm still accumulating and am set to save a lot more starting this year than the last few years, so a discount for a while would feel really great.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: FIRE 20/20 on February 13, 2019, 10:13:17 PM
892.9490 shares sold at $67.59 each for a total of $60,354.42.

I don't agree with your logic, but kudos for giving us actual numbers to back up your trades.

Agreed.  I *feel* like the markets have to crash for any of a dozen different reasons, but I felt that way in 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, etc.  But I admire the guts it takes to admit it and post here. 
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: MaaS on February 14, 2019, 08:19:37 AM
The more likely political risk is that an impeachment leads to an election landslide that puts the Democrats in control of the Senate as well as the presidency. If serious talk of rolling back the corporate tax cuts came up, the market would take a beating. The fundamentals would become a nightmare as soon as the market priced a high probability in.

Also, I'm not saying the above would be a good or bad thing for the country. But, it would almost certainly be bad for the short-term market price. With that said, I'm not selling a single share based on that.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: waltworks on February 14, 2019, 11:28:30 AM
VTSAX is at $68.85 right now, so now OP is:

893*($68.85-$67.59)=$1125 in the hole

Since we don't know what the tax hit was yet, if any, we'll leave that out.

In another month we'll have some dividends distributed as well, of course.

Should be fun to track!

-W
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: sol on February 14, 2019, 12:08:55 PM
VTSAX is at $68.85 right now, so now OP is:

893*($68.85-$67.59)=$1125 in the hole

The most hilarious part about this little experiment, IMO, is that if you click on the OP's post history (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/profile/?area=showposts;u=37723) the last thing he posted before this thread announcing that he was going all cash was this post (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/on-staying-optimistic/msg2168757/#msg2168757) on October 13th, in which he is optimistic about what a good investment his VTSAX purchases were.

The kicker?  The price on October 13th was $68.83!  Yesterday's price was $68.85.  What changed, junioroldtimer?  Why were you happy about buying in at today's price back in October, but now so fearful that you're hiding in cash? 
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: ChpBstrd on February 14, 2019, 01:26:04 PM
VTSAX is at $68.85 right now, so now OP is:

893*($68.85-$67.59)=$1125 in the hole

The most hilarious part about this little experiment, IMO, is that if you click on the OP's post history (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/profile/?area=showposts;u=37723) the last thing he posted before this thread announcing that he was going all cash was this post (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/on-staying-optimistic/msg2168757/#msg2168757) on October 13th, in which he is optimistic about what a good investment his VTSAX purchases were.

The kicker?  The price on October 13th was $68.83!  Yesterday's price was $68.85.  What changed, junioroldtimer?  Why were you happy about buying in at today's price back in October, but now so fearful that you're hiding in cash?

^ This may seem mean-spirited, O.P, but it's the sense of discipline and the little drill seargent voice in one's head that gets us all the way through the dips and to the other side. Another self-discipline tool is having a written investment plan that you have to rewrite and rejustify to yourself if you want to change investments*. So if you can convert the annoying experience of having made this post into a mental toolkit that keeps you following a plan, then this could be a six-figure experience.

*note this does not mean "stay in a 100% stock portfolio". It means setting your AA based on your risk tolerance and sticking with whatever that is.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: robartsd on February 14, 2019, 03:38:38 PM
Timing the general market isn't for me, but good luck! 

I hope this works out for the OP.

I do too, but mostly because I'd love a few years of real nice discounts.

You just had a 20% decline back in December, remember?  What more do you want?

Have we already forgotten what the forum was like in December?  So much doom and gloom, "the recession is here" talk and lots of people posting their six figure losses.  The top was in, right?

Oh wait, it's almost like we're all terrible at timing the market.  Because things have been great since then, instead of terrible.
Sure the decline in December gave some people a great bargains, but it didn't last very long. My purchases are early in the month (shortly after I get paid) so the late December drop wasn't very helpful to me. Compared to my September buy, I only got a 10% discount in January (7% discount in December and 6% discount in February). Pretty soon I'll be paying record prices for my shares again.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: sol on February 14, 2019, 05:09:55 PM
Sure the decline in December gave some people a great bargains, but it didn't last very long. My purchases are early in the month (shortly after I get paid) so the late December drop wasn't very helpful to me. Compared to my September buy, I only got a 10% discount in January (7% discount in December and 6% discount in February). Pretty soon I'll be paying record prices for my shares again.

Mustachian people problems, friend.

"The stock market didn't crash hard enough or long enough for me" is not a complaint you hear very often.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: dividendman on February 14, 2019, 10:15:27 PM
Well, since Top is in, I have to follow this thread to see how the OP is going to cash in on Top being in.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: MrOnyx on February 15, 2019, 04:32:30 AM
Wonder if Brexit will have a negative (positive for buyers!) impact on markets?? I'm sure OP is hoping so.

Interested observer.

Outside of the UK markets? Not sure. The EU market might lose a little from our exports, I suppose, short-term. Trade won't totally cease between the EU and UK, even if we crash out no-deal, but it will just be subject to the WTO tariffs IIRC. It'll just be more expensive to trade with the EU, and to get our regular imports in.

Long-term, if our government gets its act together and starts negotiating some good trade agreements with the US, Asia, Europe again, South America, etc. then perhaps those markets will improve where we replace trade that used to be done with the EU with those other markets.

Brexit has been a long time coming, and so investors and other money people have had a long time to anticipate it, and prepare plans and contingencies. Brexit won't be a mushroom cloud on the markets, I suspect, but it will probably be a bit of a pop. It could cause another recession (even if just for the UK), but I don't suspect it will be a big one. I voted remain, but I'm still optimistic enough that things won't be quite as bad as certain fear-mongers will have you believe.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: talltexan on February 15, 2019, 08:05:41 AM
OP, I appreciate you starting this thread and being willing to take your medicine in public.

To the rest, you guys should be gracious. Most market-timers try to use sleight-of-hand to hide their mistakes or mentally account for them as something else. OP's sell order meant someone else--maybe someone reading this thread--was able to get the shares cheaply after all.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: HamsterStache on February 15, 2019, 08:38:00 AM
I'm an investing newbie, but still find this quite an interesting thread - PTF
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: firemeup on February 15, 2019, 02:45:18 PM
If Trump is truly a Russian puppet and everyone seems so sure of it, wouldn't the market go up once he is finally proved of his misdeeds?  We don't even need anything certain just something minor and Congress can move him out. Market may spike. Quick buy back!

Also with every little thing being leaked, if there was anything that would directly tie Trump to the Russians would this somehow be the one thing that isn't leaked? Sell everything hes innocent! Or buy?! No wait sell!

If Trump is some Russian puppet would Mueller really not have moved a little more hastily to produce evidence so we wouldn't have a Putin hand puppet at the head of our country for well over 2 years? Buy! There is nothing there! Or maybe there is...sell! We've been headed by Russia for 2+ years! Sell sell sell!

I for one really hope there is nothing on Trump because I root for America. I root for the economy. I would never wager my savings and potential future savings by timing the market especially when logic seems to indicate there is probably nothing there and if there is, wouldn't it be good for the market if the this man who is supposedly such a buffoon and so stupid yet concealed his affairs with Russia, was gone?

Do not make decisions based on political leanings. America always self corrects.  If we swing hard left in 2020, I will still hold because we will likely return to the middle the next election after dabbling all over the spectrum in such a short period of time.

Your 60k would be better invested, if you do wait 10% to get back in it only cost you 6 grand no biggie. But just be careful. Famed economist Paul Krugman wrote an op ed the day after Trumps election that the markets may never recover as the futures were plummeting. I think it took until about noon for them to recover.  If he has no idea what's going on, I certainly dont and most likely none of us do.

Good luck. I commend your willingness to be held accountable.  I wish all politicians would be accountable to the people as well.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Telecaster on February 15, 2019, 03:09:31 PM
Sure the decline in December gave some people a great bargains, but it didn't last very long. My purchases are early in the month (shortly after I get paid) so the late December drop wasn't very helpful to me. Compared to my September buy, I only got a 10% discount in January (7% discount in December and 6% discount in February). Pretty soon I'll be paying record prices for my shares again.

Mustachian people problems, friend.

"The stock market didn't crash hard enough or long enough for me" is not a complaint you hear very often.

I'll make it!  I'm still in accumulation phase.  I was relieved when it dropped.   It is causing me stress that it has rebounded so strongly. 
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: sol on February 15, 2019, 07:41:08 PM
junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 12 the closing price was $68.64, meaning that he had cost himself $937.60.
On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11.
On Feb 15 the closing price was $69.49, meaning that he has cost himself $1,696.60.  In the first 8 days.

Market timing is fun!  As long as you're not the one doing it.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: frugledoc on February 15, 2019, 11:36:30 PM
junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 12 the closing price was $68.64, meaning that he had cost himself $937.60.
On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11.
On Feb 15 the closing price was $69.49, meaning that he has cost himself $1,696.60.  In the first 8 days.

Market timing is fun!  As long as you're not the one doing it.

For me, I donít have any fear of market crashes but do have a fear of missing out on gains.

I will always be 100% equities (not including my DB pension)
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: COEE on February 16, 2019, 09:40:46 AM
junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 12 the closing price was $68.64, meaning that he had cost himself $937.60.
On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11.
On Feb 15 the closing price was $69.49, meaning that he has cost himself $1,696.60.  In the first 8 days.

Market timing is fun!  As long as you're not the one doing it.

No need to rub salt in the wound on a daily basis.  We all know the ticker and can do math.  junioroldtimer may still win.  With only 22 posts, may also be a troll.  If not a troll, certainly has some big cojones laying it all out there for the world to know and watch.

Good luck junioroldtimer! 
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: bacchi on February 16, 2019, 10:28:55 AM
junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 12 the closing price was $68.64, meaning that he had cost himself $937.60.
On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11.
On Feb 15 the closing price was $69.49, meaning that he has cost himself $1,696.60.  In the first 8 days.

Market timing is fun!  As long as you're not the one doing it.

No need to rub salt in the wound on a daily basis.  We all know the ticker and can do math.  junioroldtimer may still win.  With only 22 posts, may also be a troll.  If not a troll, certainly has some big cojones laying it all out there for the world to know and watch.

Good luck junioroldtimer!

Eventually, a market timer will correctly predict the decline. That thread will attract all the nascent market-timers who will use that thread as proof that it can be done.

Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: sol on February 16, 2019, 10:44:19 AM
junioroldtimer may still win.  With only 22 posts, may also be a troll. 

The reason I've been watching so closely is that I'm really hoping the market dips below his sell price, so that he can jump back in and declare himself a success.  I'm just worried he's going to hold all the way down and then all the way back up again.  If you're going to time the market, you have to be ready to pull the trigger on potential gains quickly.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: brandino29 on February 18, 2019, 01:01:04 PM

No need to rub salt in the wound on a daily basis.  We all know the ticker and can do math.  junioroldtimer may still win.  With only 22 posts, may also be a troll.  If not a troll, certainly has some big cojones laying it all out there for the world to know and watch.

Good luck junioroldtimer!

Yeah, the least fun part about this thread has been Sol's odd obsession and kinda fanatical glee in attacking the OP.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: MrThatsDifferent on February 18, 2019, 01:07:16 PM

No need to rub salt in the wound on a daily basis.  We all know the ticker and can do math.  junioroldtimer may still win.  With only 22 posts, may also be a troll.  If not a troll, certainly has some big cojones laying it all out there for the world to know and watch.

Good luck junioroldtimer!

Yeah, the least fun part about this thread has been Sol's odd obsession and kinda fanatical glee in attacking the OP.

Awww, thatís actually my favorite part. Itís like the battle between the young whippersnapper who thinks he knows everything and the crusty been there done that old guy who gets off on telling everyone ďI told you soĒ.  Iím eating caramel flavored popcorn btw.

Also, to Solís persistence, my investments are doing the best now than ever so Iím really wondering how much this guy has lost with his wait for disaster gamble?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: waltworks on February 18, 2019, 01:33:36 PM
OP, were you reinvesting dividends? That will have some effect on how you track this going forward, starting in about a month here.

-W
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: theoverlook on February 19, 2019, 09:53:04 AM

Yeah, the least fun part about this thread has been Sol's odd obsession and kinda fanatical glee in attacking the OP.
I don't see it as an odd obsession at all.. he's just updating what the market's done since the OP posted their move. It's interesting. I also don't see numbers as an attack. If he was berating the OP then yes but he's just saying "here's what's happened since:" and giving facts. If facts are uncomfortable or an attack to you, then I guess that's your perspective.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: HBFIRE on February 22, 2019, 09:55:27 AM
following, this should be fun
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: lowroller4111 on February 24, 2019, 04:39:30 PM
I think the OP made a real error by getting out of the market... the trade issues are being resolved, just today Trump announced significant progress towards a deal.  We may have an easy 10-11% upside from here.  This is a classic lesson on why timing does not work.  OP may learn a very expensive lesson on staying the course.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: sol on February 24, 2019, 07:16:56 PM
Another week has passed, let's review!

junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11 after one week of trying to time the market.
On Feb 22 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he has cost himself $1,866.26 after two weeks of trying to time the market.

As of today, he needs the market to drop at least 3.42% to get back to break-even on his decision.  Still very possible!  I'm keeping my fingers crossed for you, junioroldtimer.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: SubL stache on February 24, 2019, 08:10:37 PM
This needs to be updated weekly until OP jumps back in, whether at a loss or a gain.

Thanks for actually calling your shot OP.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: ender on February 24, 2019, 08:43:16 PM
I'm glad the OP actually was honest enough to admit it might be a mistake.

Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: mies on February 25, 2019, 01:06:01 AM
This needs to be updated weekly until OP jumps back in, whether at a loss or a gain.

Thanks for actually calling your shot OP.

The original poster seems to have gone radio silent. Maybe heíll do an occasional thorstach style ďI told you so!Ē post the next time there is a large drop in the markets?

Either way, I hope he doesnít miss out on too much time in the market and end up buying back in at even higher share prices.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Dicey on February 25, 2019, 07:18:35 AM

No need to rub salt in the wound on a daily basis.  We all know the ticker and can do math.  junioroldtimer may still win.  With only 22 posts, may also be a troll.  If not a troll, certainly has some big cojones laying it all out there for the world to know and watch.

Good luck junioroldtimer!

Yeah, the least fun part about this thread has been Sol's odd obsession and kinda fanatical glee in attacking the OP.
Frankly, @brandino29, I find it the best part. Sol responds with logic, experience, intelligence, and reason. His is helping others understand the fallacy of market timing so that they don't make the same mistake(s). Some of us old FIRE folks hang around here specifically to help other people reach their own FIRE goals more efficiently. Criticize him all you want, within the bounds of the forum rules, of course, but ignore his teaching at your own peril.

And @COEE, what you're calling big cojones look like small potatoes to me. I actually exhaled when I saw the amount of money the OP was playing with risking gambling. People have blown more money on depreciators such as cars and other motorized toys. This will be a painful lesson, but he will hopefully make a complete recovery and this experiment will prove valuable to him, and to many, in the long run. And we're all about the long run here, aren't we?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: ender on February 25, 2019, 07:29:35 AM
Frankly, @brandino29, I find it the best part. Sol responds with logic, experience, intelligence, and reason. His is helping others understand the fallacy of market timing so that they don't make the same mistake(s). Some of us old FIRE folks hang around here specifically to help other people reach their own FIRE goals more efficiently. Criticize him all you want, within the bounds of the forum rules, of course, but ignore his teaching at your own peril.

And @COEE, what you're calling big cojones look like small potatoes to me. I actually exhaled when I saw the amount of money the OP was playing with risking gambling. People have blown more money on depreciators such as cars and other motorized toys. This will be a painful lesson, but he will hopefully make a complete recovery and this experiment will prove valuable to him, and to many, in the long run. And we're all about the long run here, aren't we?

It reads like mocking to me. Pretty blatantly.

Maybe that's the "best part" to you but mocking someone openly on forums isn't really something I think belongs here.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Malkynn on February 25, 2019, 07:44:47 AM

No need to rub salt in the wound on a daily basis.  We all know the ticker and can do math.  junioroldtimer may still win.  With only 22 posts, may also be a troll.  If not a troll, certainly has some big cojones laying it all out there for the world to know and watch.

Good luck junioroldtimer!

Yeah, the least fun part about this thread has been Sol's odd obsession and kinda fanatical glee in attacking the OP.
Frankly, @brandino29, I find it the best part. Sol responds with logic, experience, intelligence, and reason. His is helping others understand the fallacy of market timing so that they don't make the same mistake(s). Some of us old FIRE folks hang around here specifically to help other people reach their own FIRE goals more efficiently. Criticize him all you want, within the bounds of the forum rules, of course, but ignore his teaching at your own peril.

And @COEE, what you're calling big cojones look like small potatoes to me. I actually exhaled when I saw the amount of money the OP was playing with risking gambling. People have blown more money on depreciators such as cars and other motorized toys. This will be a painful lesson, but he will hopefully make a complete recovery and this experiment will prove valuable to him, and to many, in the long run. And we're all about the long run here, aren't we?

Agreed.

What I don't really understand is the level of risk for the magnitude of potential reward.

I mean, realistically, how much is he expecting the market to actually drop? Say it drops as much as 50%, which would be astounding. The max he gains is, what??? a few tens of thousands?

And if the wheels fall off the entire economy so badly that it drops that significantly, I can imagine it would be pants-shittingly terrifying to dump back in every cent of your savings while the news screams every day of the collapse of the entire economy and constantly warns of impending violent conflict.

I'm really only slightly dramatizing, or maybe I'm not, you never know what news outlets will report. I remember in 2013 when CNN had a constant stream of warnings that a North Korean nuclear attack was practically imminent.
A massive 50% drop in the market would make news agencies apoplectic. The fear rhetoric would be overwhelming, which would make it extremely difficult to assess what the likelihood of a recovery would be.

I can see someone faltering in dumping it all back in at a time if extreme economic uncertainty when cash might be king. In that unlikely case, the real benefit of this plan is having cashed out before the crash if you end up needing to use your cash without having to sell at a loss.

The opportunity to buy back in low just doesn't produce all that much of a benefit in the grand scheme.

It's a move of taking on a very high risk of losing out on gains for the very low possibility of gaining a few tens of thousands, but only if you have an iron sphincter and an absolute and total faith in the economy recovering from an astronomical drop.

Or...it could dip 10-20% as it has in the past and the gains will be even more non-significant, so why even bother??

Regardless, there's no permutation of this plan that I can see where it would impact someone's lifetime savings by very much. By the time OP hits FI, the affects of normal market fluctuations should alter their net worth more than this move will.

If there's a "big win" scenario here, I'm just not seeing it.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: radram on February 25, 2019, 07:49:27 AM
Still no word from OP about when the buyback will occur, and idle for over a week.

Somthin' smells fishy.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: waltworks on February 25, 2019, 07:54:28 AM
This is the land of the facepunch, Ender. Or it was when Sol and I started here.

Indeed, we are basically just interested in helping people. If a memorable market timing thread prevents some people from market timing, we've done our job.

I don't think we'll see OP again regardless, though.

-W
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Davnasty on February 25, 2019, 09:24:39 AM
@junioroldtimer, I don't think we ever got an answer on what kind of time frame you're looking at. You mentioned that you would buy back in when the price is significantly cheaper but no indication of how long you would give that to happen.

Are you tying your decisions to the Mueller investigation? For example, if all the evidence is laid out and still no impeachment, do you buy back in? What if Trump is impeached and the markets go up or remain flat?

Or do you have a time limit in mind? Weeks, months, years?

I'm interested in part because if you're ready to let it go 2 years before you give up, sol's weekly updates probably don't mean much to you, but if you're checking the market every few days, these little movements are more relevant.

Not saying you should stop sol, I'm just curious about what it means to OP.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: sol on February 25, 2019, 09:39:17 AM
you're ready to let it go 2 years before you give up, sol's weekly updates probably don't mean much to you

My impression from his last post is that he's expecting a post-Mueller market drop, and is planning to wait at least a few more weeks until after the report is public, and maybe a few more years to see what the political fallout will be.

But like so many other market timing threads we have followed over the years, correctly predicting a future 10% drop doesn't help you at all if the market climbs 15% before then.  My worry for junioroldtimer is that the market will continue to rise before it drops, and then it might not drop enough to make it worthwhile.  I think his best chance (or anyone's best chance) for market timing success is to capitalize on the quasi-random daily fluctuations in the index price, and try to catch a down day ASAP after your sell date to buy back in.  You can maybe squeeze out an extra half percent, if you get lucky enough to sell on an up day and then buy in later that same week on a down day.  Unfortunately, in this case there hasn't yet been a single moment after his sell date when it would have been profitable for him to do so, because the market is on a steady upward climb these days.

But we're only up a few percent so far.  Another 10% correction this year would not shock me, and that would be the moment to declare yourself a market timing genius and get back into the market.  It still seems to me like a lot of work and stress, for a chance to deviate from market returns by a tiny amount.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: secondcor521 on February 25, 2019, 10:17:04 AM
I remain long-term optimistic on the US stock market but I'm short-term pessimistic. I think the sitting president is going to be impeached and there's going to be a knock-down, drag-out fight in which the markets temporarily plummet as all this Russia stuff comes to light.

I'll let you guys know how I do. I intend to sell 893 shares of VTSAX. I will buy back in when the price is significantly cheaper.

Current VSTAX price: $68.18

Cross your fingers for me or call me crazy. We'll see how this goes.

I'll take the opposite point of view for $200, Alex.

I'm long term optimistic and short-term indifferent to the market performance because I am a LTBH broad-market low-cost index fund investor.  I personally do not expect President Trump to be impeached, and even if he is impeached, I expect the market will go up after such an event.  The market went up after Clinton was impeached.

I held, hold, and will continue to hold 893 shares of VTSAX in my taxable account - more than that, actually.  I have no interest, need, or plans to sell those shares, buy more shares, buy or sell call or put options, or do much of anything other than sit here and collect dividends.  (Well actually I sell some shares every 3-6 months or so to live on; that's a written part of my FIRE plan.)

@sol, I did buy some shares of VTSAX on 12/18/18 and 12/24/18 at $63.39 and $58.19.  Be greedy when others are fearful is a phrase I like.  It was a small amount of shares and was just an opportunity to shift towards stocks and was also part of a predetermined plan based on data and a long-term outlook.

I would call you foolish.  You're making investment decisions on a short-term basis, without any real plan for what to do next, based on information everyone knows and speculations that have been out there for about two years, without any apparent consideration for economic data or stock market earnings or conditions in the world or technological advances or even historical patterns.  I think that either you will be burned so badly that you stay out of the market for years afterward, or you'll accidentally succeed on this particular trade which will unfortunately mislead you into thinking that you're smarter than the average bear and you'll fail on a bigger trade later because you mistook good luck for skill.

Good luck!
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: HBFIRE on February 25, 2019, 01:25:32 PM
Some people need expensive lessons in life, this could be one of those.

I know I've made my share of expensive lessons throughout my life (understatement).  Someone said "Successful people have a lot of experience.  Experience comes from making a lot of bad mistakes".  Now the scary thing is I think it was a surgeon who made this comment.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: harvestbook on February 25, 2019, 03:30:26 PM
Whenever I think some political event is going to move markets one way or another, I recall Warren Buffett saying he bought his first stocks when the US was losing the war to Japan. That seemed to work out okay.

I'll just stick with my motto and not think.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: COEE on February 26, 2019, 07:05:00 AM
Frankly, @brandino29, I find it the best part. Sol responds with logic, experience, intelligence, and reason. His is helping others understand the fallacy of market timing so that they don't make the same mistake(s). Some of us old FIRE folks hang around here specifically to help other people reach their own FIRE goals more efficiently. Criticize him all you want, within the bounds of the forum rules, of course, but ignore his teaching at your own peril.

And @COEE, what you're calling big cojones look like small potatoes to me. I actually exhaled when I saw the amount of money the OP was playing with risking gambling. People have blown more money on depreciators such as cars and other motorized toys. This will be a painful lesson, but he will hopefully make a complete recovery and this experiment will prove valuable to him, and to many, in the long run. And we're all about the long run here, aren't we?

It reads like mocking to me. Pretty blatantly.

Maybe that's the "best part" to you but mocking someone openly on forums isn't really something I think belongs here.

Yep - it reads as mockery to me as well. 

If you go back and reread my statement about the big cojones you may realize that it had nothing to do with the cash value, but the public lashings they would get from the likes of some of the people on this forum.  You can educate without daily/weekly/whatever reminders of the market price and over analysis of the situation.  The OP surely has all of these factors in mind... or will eventually.

I still think OP is probably a troll.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Car Jack on February 26, 2019, 07:44:12 AM
$70.07 as I write this.

Mueller report, impeachment would not tank the market.  It will cause a rally.  Why?  The market doesn't move down on bad news, it moves down on expected bad news (fed expected to raise interest rates) or on insecurity (Congress to send Trump a bill that he said he'd sign, now he won't sign it and will only sign bills that start out with the words "We pledge allegiance to Donald Trump").  If Pence takes over, he'll be seen as a rational person who will sign something he says he'll sign.

My prediction......Trump impeached......Dow goes up 2,000 points.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: wenchsenior on February 26, 2019, 07:49:30 AM
Trump is almost certainly not going to be impeached.  But if he is, so what? Trump's even LESS likely to be removed from office. And even on the teeny tiny infinitesimal chance that he WERE removed from office, I fail to see how that would affect the stock market for more than a blip.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: HBFIRE on February 26, 2019, 08:17:18 AM
The market doesn't move down on bad news, it moves down on expected bad news

Mostly true, unless the news is unexpected.  Certainly the odds of Trump getting removed from office are very low, it wouldn't be expected by the markets.  That said, the markets might actually like the news as there could be less volatility in decision making without Trump in office.  Pence would probably do nothing.  The market has been impacted by several news events (including presidential election and political news) throughout history.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Dicey on February 26, 2019, 08:41:34 AM
Frankly, @brandino29, I find it the best part. Sol responds with logic, experience, intelligence, and reason. His is helping others understand the fallacy of market timing so that they don't make the same mistake(s). Some of us old FIRE folks hang around here specifically to help other people reach their own FIRE goals more efficiently. Criticize him all you want, within the bounds of the forum rules, of course, but ignore his teaching at your own peril.

And @COEE, what you're calling big cojones look like small potatoes to me. I actually exhaled when I saw the amount of money the OP was playing with risking gambling. People have blown more money on depreciators such as cars and other motorized toys. This will be a painful lesson, but he will hopefully make a complete recovery and this experiment will prove valuable to him, and to many, in the long run. And we're all about the long run here, aren't we?

It reads like mocking to me. Pretty blatantly.

Maybe that's the "best part" to you but mocking someone openly on forums isn't really something I think belongs here.

Yep - it reads as mockery to me as well. 

If you go back and reread my statement about the big cojones you may realize that it had nothing to do with the cash value, but the public lashings they would get from the likes of some of the people on this forum.  You can educate without daily/weekly/whatever reminders of the market price and over analysis of the situation.  The OP surely has all of these factors in mind... or will eventually.

I still think OP is probably a troll.
This is the MMM Forum, a subset of the MMM Blog, where face punches and mockery strut with confidence in the face of silliness such as market timing. MMM's blunt ways and direct approach are much of what makes his voice stand out from the crowd. Sol's been around longer than I have, but we're both pretty cognizant of forum history and rules.

Anyone who hangs around here long enough realizes that many people do NOT (or cannot, which is even scarier) do the math, and there are new members joining our ranks every day. (Welcome!) To ignore someone who is extolling their adventures in market timing is a disservice to all, even if said person resembles a troll. Not everybody realizes that, and they could be left with the impression that market timing isn't such a bad thing. In this place, market timers deserve to be mocked. What you (and others) may perceive as sarcasm might just be a couple of salty old-timers, hanging around on the porch, mostly obeying the Forum Rules, and helping others reach their goal of FIRE.

And I did re-re-re-read your statement, COEE. "It" may not read the way you intended. I respectfully stand by my interpretation.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Eric on February 26, 2019, 12:12:13 PM
I'm sure the OP was prepared for at least the possibility of some public mockery, otherwise he wouldn't have started this thread, he would've just made terrible investment decisions in silence.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: ChpBstrd on February 26, 2019, 03:02:51 PM
I suspect OP has made this mistake a few times before, hates themselves for making the same mistake over and over again, and has vowed to let a mob of internet people give them the beatdown of a lifetime in the hopes of finally breaking the cycle. Self-punishment and self-shaming are sometimes attempts to train oneself to stop doing a thing.

In my younger, dumber days, I used to make trades in response to news-provoked anxieties even as I was reading elsewhere about what a bad move that was. I watched the losses pile up and read more about market timing. I set up play portfolios and destroyed them. Still l remained convinced that the next event I was reading about in the financial "news" would probably tank stocks this time, and I would feel so smart for avoiding years of losses. I reached a point where I knew I would probably lose at market timing AND STILL COULDN'T STOP. My fear was overriding both my own experience and the objective data that others were presenting me.

O.P. may have positioned themselves to fear this facepunchfest as a counterbalance to their fear of losing money in the stock market. Probably all they got was a cash portfolio being left in the dust and facepunches on top of that. There's a whole line of "talk me out of..." posts on this forum. Hopefully this is just another one, and OP didn't actually sell out in the middle of an epic rally.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: bisimpson on February 26, 2019, 05:22:05 PM
This has been an interesting thread. I don't have any plans on timing the marketóreading posts and replies like these cure any idea that I think I can make a better return jumping in and out of the market. But here's an innocent question though:

If you wanted to jump in and out of the market wouldn't there be a better tool than VTI or VTSAX? I think if I were an active investor (read 'actively buying and selling'), I would be looking for individual companies that might fare better or worse in a given political climate, not the broad American economy, which VTSAX seems to represent.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: secondcor521 on February 26, 2019, 06:36:23 PM
I suspect OP has made this mistake a few times before, hates themselves for making the same mistake over and over again, and has vowed to let a mob of internet people give them the beatdown of a lifetime in the hopes of finally breaking the cycle. Self-punishment and self-shaming are sometimes attempts to train oneself to stop doing a thing.

In my younger, dumber days, I used to make trades in response to news-provoked anxieties even as I was reading elsewhere about what a bad move that was. I watched the losses pile up and read more about market timing. I set up play portfolios and destroyed them. Still l remained convinced that the next event I was reading about in the financial "news" would probably tank stocks this time, and I would feel so smart for avoiding years of losses. I reached a point where I knew I would probably lose at market timing AND STILL COULDN'T STOP. My fear was overriding both my own experience and the objective data that others were presenting me.

O.P. may have positioned themselves to fear this facepunchfest as a counterbalance to their fear of losing money in the stock market. Probably all they got was a cash portfolio being left in the dust and facepunches on top of that. There's a whole line of "talk me out of..." posts on this forum. Hopefully this is just another one, and OP didn't actually sell out in the middle of an epic rally.

Seems like quite a bit of projecting there.

OP did state that they put in the transaction about the same time they made the post, and then followed up that the transaction had actually gone through.  I don't think they were expecting to be talked out of it.  Which is another point for foolishness - deciding to do something first and then maybe asking for guidance and feedback second, rather than the other way around.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: radram on February 27, 2019, 07:41:14 AM
This has been an interesting thread. I don't have any plans on timing the marketóreading posts and replies like these cure any idea that I think I can make a better return jumping in and out of the market. But here's an innocent question though:

If you wanted to jump in and out of the market wouldn't there be a better tool than VTI or VTSAX? I think if I were an active investor (read 'actively buying and selling'), I would be looking for individual companies that might fare better or worse in a given political climate, not the broad American economy, which VTSAX seems to represent.

That's a really interesting point.  Is it easier to gauge the short-term movement of an individual company, or the movement of the market as a whole.  I think I agree with you. I'd rather bet on an individual company than the market as a whole.


Now that I think about it, I do not know if that research has been done. When looking at market timers,which should under-perform the market as a whole, do individual stock timers outperform their index timer counterparts?

My guess would be no. This would be interesting reporting.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: bisimpson on February 27, 2019, 08:45:57 AM
This has been an interesting thread. I don't have any plans on timing the marketóreading posts and replies like these cure any idea that I think I can make a better return jumping in and out of the market. But here's an innocent question though:

If you wanted to jump in and out of the market wouldn't there be a better tool than VTI or VTSAX? I think if I were an active investor (read 'actively buying and selling'), I would be looking for individual companies that might fare better or worse in a given political climate, not the broad American economy, which VTSAX seems to represent.

That's a really interesting point.  Is it easier to gauge the short-term movement of an individual company, or the movement of the market as a whole.  I think I agree with you. I'd rather bet on an individual company than the market as a whole.

Now that I think about it, I do not know if that research has been done. When looking at market timers,which should under-perform the market as a whole, do individual stock timers outperform their index timer counterparts?

My guess would be no. This would be interesting reporting.

Sounds like too much work for this know-nothing investor.

I think if I were to bet on government outcomes, it wouldnít be an impeachment. I think I would be more interested in the outcome of the trade war with China, or the southern wall.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: solon on February 27, 2019, 09:08:40 AM
Welp, I love the title of this thread. I haven't heard 'welp' since growing up in Minnestota. OP may be right or wrong about the stock market, but I'm inclined to like him as a person.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: talltexan on February 28, 2019, 01:55:14 PM
I cannot help but notice that the market has barely budged over the last several days. Doesn't that kind of stability portend a sell-off?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Eric on February 28, 2019, 02:40:05 PM
I cannot help but notice that the market has barely budged over the last several days. Doesn't that kind of stability portend a sell-off?

Let me ask my Magic 8 ball (http://www.ask8ball.net/).  It says: "Concentrate and ask again"

Even the 8 ball doesn't know!!
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: solon on February 28, 2019, 02:41:54 PM
I cannot help but notice that the market has barely budged over the last several days. Doesn't that kind of stability portend a sell-off?

Let me ask my Magic 8 ball (http://www.ask8ball.net/).  It says: "Concentrate and ask again"

Even the 8 ball doesn't know!!

I got, "Very doubtful"!
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: ChpBstrd on February 28, 2019, 02:48:54 PM
I cannot help but notice that the market has barely budged over the last several days. Doesn't that kind of stability portend a sell-off?

Let me ask my Magic 8 ball (http://www.ask8ball.net/).  It says: "Concentrate and ask again"

Even the 8 ball doesn't know!!

I got, "Very doubtful"!

I got "IT'S THE FUCKING TRIPLE MEGA DEATH CROSS ON THE HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERN. SELL EVERYTHING AND BUY PUTS ON THE S&P500 At 2680 THAT WILL YIELD A 350% RETURN AT 2600!!!!"

I think it's the first time that one has ever come up.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: waltworks on February 28, 2019, 02:55:35 PM
Mine says "it's Thursday so put some more money in if you have it".

-W
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: ILikeDividends on February 28, 2019, 06:45:13 PM
Mine says "it's Thursday so put some more money in if you have it".

-W
Mine said, "Reboot is required to install the latest updates."

So I drop-kicked it, and smashed it against the wall.

Now it alternates between just two results no matter what my question is: "Top is in" and "Your battery has experienced a permanent failure and needs to be replaced."
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: talltexan on March 01, 2019, 07:50:05 AM
Now you guys are starting to sound like "top is in" people...yeesh
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: sol on March 02, 2019, 04:50:46 PM
Another week has passed, let's review!

junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11 after one week of trying to time the market.
On Feb 22 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $1,866.26 after two weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 01 the closing price was $70.28, meaning that he has cost himself $2,402.03 after three weeks of trying to time the market.  Bummer.

As of today, he needs the market to drop at least 3.83% to get back to break-even on his decision.  Still very possible!  I'm keeping my fingers crossed for you, junioroldtimer.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Dicey on March 03, 2019, 11:51:25 PM
♡♡Thanks for the update, @sol!♡♡
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: robartsd on March 04, 2019, 09:26:44 AM
Another week has passed, let's review!

junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11 after one week of trying to time the market.
On Feb 22 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $1,866.26 after two weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 01 the closing price was $70.28, meaning that he has cost himself $2,402.03 after three weeks of trying to time the market.  Bummer.

As of today, he needs the market to drop at least 3.83% to get back to break-even on his decision.  Still very possible!  I'm keeping my fingers crossed for you, junioroldtimer.
Hopefully the drop will coincide with my buy order this week!
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: lowroller4111 on March 08, 2019, 05:00:50 PM
I just bought $4k worth of VTSAX today... yeah it may go down next week, it may even crash 10% this month I have no idea but that isn't the point.  I do not know what is going to happen and I do not care as this is money for when I turn 70 or so, I MAY withdraw it then.  I am currently 44 LOL!

So, OP just get back in and this time don't jump ship.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: MrThatsDifferent on March 08, 2019, 05:51:00 PM
♡♡Thanks for the update, @sol!♡♡

I have a legitimate man crush on sol.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: waltworks on March 08, 2019, 07:51:32 PM
♡♡Thanks for the update, @sol!♡♡

I have a legitimate man crush on sol.

Get in line.

-W
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: sol on March 08, 2019, 10:17:50 PM
♡♡Thanks for the update, @sol!♡♡

I have a legitimate man crush on sol.

Get in line.

Boys, boys, reign it in already!  There's more than enough of me to go around.  I can go aaaaaall night.


Also, another week has passed, so let's review!

junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11 after one week of trying to time the market.
On Feb 22 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $1,866.26 after two weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 01 the closing price was $70.28, meaning that he had cost himself $2,402.03 after three weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 08 the closing price was $68.62, meaning that he has cost himself $919.73 after four weeks of trying to time the market.

It was a bad week in the market (down ~2.4%), so he recovered some of his paper losses.  Is the bottom in?  Is today the right day to get back into vtsax at the smallest possible loss, or is this just the start of the big correction OP was hoping to see when he went all cash a month ago?

Stay tuned next week for the next exciting installment of "can junioroldtimer time the market?"
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: MrOnyx on March 09, 2019, 02:41:31 AM
I'm on the edge of my seat. This is the big plot reveal, and I've been in anticipation since halfway through the last season.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: v8rx7guy on March 13, 2019, 03:53:25 PM
Can we get an update @sol ?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: waltworks on March 13, 2019, 04:07:55 PM
Can we get an update @sol ?

Updates on Fridays, it hasn't been a full week yet.

What are we going to do when dividends get paid out in another week? OP didn't say if they were reinvesting or not.

-W
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: v8rx7guy on March 13, 2019, 04:28:01 PM
Can we get an update @sol ?

Updates on Fridays, it hasn't been a full week yet.

What are we going to do when dividends get paid out in another week? OP didn't say if they were reinvesting or not.

-W

Oops... I thought it would be an appropriate update day due to being a high for 2019.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: sol on March 15, 2019, 09:38:43 PM
Can we get an update @sol ?

Yes.  Yes we can.

Remember last week when I said "Is the bottom in?  Is today the right day to get back into vtsax at the smallest possible loss?"  The answer to that question appears to be yes, the bottom was in, and that was the correct day for the OP to buy back in while losing as little money as possible.  Because today's vtsax closing price was $70.56 per share, a high for 2019.

junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11 after one week of trying to time the market.
On Feb 22 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $1,866.26 after two weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 01 the closing price was $70.28, meaning that he had cost himself $2,402.03 after three weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 08 the closing price was $68.62, meaning that he had cost himself $919.73 after four weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 15 the closing price was $70.56, meaning that he has cost himself $2,652.05 after five weeks of trying to time the market.

So we're over a month into this experiment, and there hasn't been a single day when the OP could have bought back in at a lower price than he sold for.  So far, this has been a monumentally bad call. 

Just to be clear, I don't claim to know any better.  My crystal ball is totally not-magic, and when we started tracking this thread I had no idea if he was going to be right or wrong.  I have no idea what the market is going to do tomorrow, or next month, and neither does anyone else.  But I do know that trying to make money by timing the market is necessarily an exercise in betting against the house.  The long term average has always been upwards, and any time you sell with an intention to re-buy you are betting that it will at some point go down instead.  So I don't play that game. 

Right about now I'm guessing junioroldtimer is wishing he hadn't played, either.

Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: MrOnyx on March 17, 2019, 04:26:53 AM
[...]
Right about now I'm guessing junioroldtimer is wishing he hadn't played, either.

I can't speak for anyone else, but I suspect JOT doesn't wish they hadn't played this game. Indeed, if we do at some point over the next few months have a recession that causes a dip that's even as big as 10/15%, JOT can buy back in at a profit. Yeah, that's a big if, and it's not a gamble that I'd take, but it's still possible to win here.

I can't remember if they ever predicted how long it would take for the market to do what they said it would, so I don't know if it's too early to say that JOT is wishing they hadn't started this.

The caveat is when they start losing out on dividend payments. I know they can be at different times depending on what particular fund you held, but that's the big thing at the moment.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: waltworks on March 17, 2019, 06:25:32 AM
Yeah, there will be a dividend distribution this week - on Thursday, I believe. VTSAX only yields like 1.9% right now but that's still real money JOT is not going to be getting.

-W
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: ender on March 17, 2019, 06:26:23 AM
I'm really hoping there's a market drop to justify this because we're rolling over a 403b now and it'd be nice timing for that ;-)
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Wrenchturner on March 19, 2019, 12:34:59 AM
Eh.  Looking at his to-date losses seems too noisy anyway.  He could be right in a year, but wrong in five.  Or he could be right this time, and wrong the next time.  I'll stick with "time in the market" because I frankly don't know any better. 
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: PDXTabs on March 19, 2019, 09:03:31 AM
Yeah, there will be a dividend distribution this week - on Thursday, I believe. VTSAX only yields like 1.9% right now but that's still real money JOT is not going to be getting.

That depends where the OP parked their money. VMFXX is yielding ~2.4% right now.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: sol on March 19, 2019, 09:30:36 AM
Eh.  Looking at his to-date losses seems too noisy anyway.  He could be right in a year, but wrong in five.  Or he could be right this time, and wrong the next time.  I'll stick with "time in the market" because I frankly don't know any better.

I also don't know any better, and neither does anyone else.

However, the OP has already missed out on a 5% gain in the first five weeks of this experiment, so his odds of making money on this trade continue to drop day by day.  I'm sure the market will drop 15% at some point in the future, I just don't know if it will rise another 25% before it does.  Neither does the OP.

But he took a shot at guessing.  I'm still hoping we get a wild temporary down-swing and he can pounce on a vtsax price lower than $67.59 and declare himself a market timing genius.  That's just looking more and more unlikely the longer we follow along.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Wrenchturner on March 19, 2019, 09:39:19 AM
Eh.  Looking at his to-date losses seems too noisy anyway.  He could be right in a year, but wrong in five.  Or he could be right this time, and wrong the next time.  I'll stick with "time in the market" because I frankly don't know any better.

I also don't know any better, and neither does anyone else.

However, the OP has already missed out on a 5% gain in the first five weeks of this experiment, so his odds of making money on this trade continue to drop day by day.  I'm sure the market will drop 15% at some point in the future, I just don't know if it will rise another 25% before it does.  Neither does the OP.

But he took a shot at guessing.  I'm still hoping we get a wild temporary down-swing and he can pounce on a vtsax price lower than $67.59 and declare himself a market timing genius.  That's just looking more and more unlikely the longer we follow along.
True.  It's a good illustration for bad psychology I suppose.  Everybody has a plan until they get face-punched.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: waltworks on March 19, 2019, 10:16:08 AM
That depends where the OP parked their money. VMFXX is yielding ~2.4% right now.

OP said it was all in VTSAX.

-W
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: EvenSteven on March 19, 2019, 10:24:46 AM
That depends where the OP parked their money. VMFXX is yielding ~2.4% right now.

OP said it was all in VTSAX.

-W

PDX probably meant it depends on where they put all that cash once they sold their VTSAX, with VMFXX being a common sweep account.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: waltworks on March 19, 2019, 10:53:20 AM
That depends where the OP parked their money. VMFXX is yielding ~2.4% right now.

OP said it was all in VTSAX.

-W

PDX probably meant it depends on where they put all that cash once they sold their VTSAX, with VMFXX being a common sweep account.

Ah, gotcha. I don't think we'll be hearing from OP again on this anyway, c'est la vie.

-W
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: sol on March 19, 2019, 11:00:28 AM
I don't think we'll be hearing from OP again on this anyway, c'est la vie.

I'm not so sure.  If you check his profile (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/profile/?area=summary;u=37723), you'll see that he's been active on the forum this morning.  He went offline for like the first two weeks after starting this thread, but he's been back since.  I'm pretty sure he's still reading along.

Hi, junioroldtimer!  Fingers still crossed for you.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: waltworks on March 23, 2019, 09:36:58 AM
Hey, where's our update, @sol?

With that yield curve inversion, JOT might just have a shot!

-W
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Tyson on March 23, 2019, 09:46:47 AM
The thing about market timers  (and bulls in general) is this:  If the market is a proxy for how well we are doing as a country, (financially) timers and bulls are in the somewhat icky position of having to hope that things go shitty so they can make money.  In other words, they are in the position of hoping others fail so that they can succeed.  That can't be emotionally healthy.  I much prefer the passive index approach - "hey, market's up, everyone's winning, and I am too!"

The other thing is this:  IME the best thing that can happen when someone tries this is that they fail, badly.  Because I've seen with family that if they were successful even just once or twice in the beginning, they will keep trying to time the market over and over and over, even when they are losing money hand over fist.  I've seen people blow through almost their entire stash doing this type of stuff. 
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: secondcor521 on March 23, 2019, 10:12:31 AM
Hey, where's our update, @sol?

With that yield curve inversion, JOT might just have a shot!

-W

He might, but not this week.

VTSAX closed yesterday at $69.49 per share.  Since JOT sold 892.949 shares at $67.59, that means he is still underwater by $1,696.60 on the shares themselves.  He also lost out on $0.3736 per share of dividends that was paid this week which translates to $333.61 in dividends.  But he might be making a little interest depending on what he did with the proceeds.  But then he'll have to pay taxes on the interest at ordinary income tax rates rather than the qualified dividend tax rate.  And then there could be transaction costs depending on how he executed the trade(s).
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: sol on March 23, 2019, 10:40:37 AM
VTSAX closed yesterday at $69.49 per share.  Since JOT sold 892.949 shares at $67.59, that means he is still underwater by $1,696.60 on the shares themselves.  He also lost out on $0.3736 per share of dividends that was paid this week which translates to $333.61 in dividends.  But he might be making a little interest depending on what he did with the proceeds.  But then he'll have to pay taxes on the interest at ordinary income tax rates rather than the qualified dividend tax rate.  And then there could be transaction costs depending on how he executed the trade(s).

See, you guys don't even need me anymore!  You can just copy and paste the list below and add the new week (or month or year or however long this thread takes until junioroldtimer joins us again).

As for dividends, those are real dollars that he missed out on so I think they should get added to his running total.

junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11 after one week of trying to time the market.
On Feb 22 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $1,866.26 after two weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 01 the closing price was $70.28, meaning that he had cost himself $2,402.03 after three weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 08 the closing price was $68.62, meaning that he had cost himself $919.73 after four weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 15 the closing price was $70.56, meaning that he had cost himself $2,652.05 after five weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 22 the closing price was $69.49, meaning that he had cost himself $1,696.60 after six weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,030.21.

Maybe $2k of losses on $60k of assets is enough to convince him this was a bad decision?  Maybe he's holding out for some hoped-for larger future drop?  In his position, I think I might face the mental block of being unable to admit my mistake and cut my losses, causing me to double down on this bet and sell even MORE market funds into cash in an attempt to recover my losses on some future negative fluctuation.

He's still only a few percent off from breaking even, so it's not even unreasonable to assume he might someday see a vtsax spot price at which he could buy back in real quick and declare himself a winner.  But frankly, all of the work of updating this thread every week has been a good reminder for me of another reason why I don't time the market.  I think it would drive me crazy to have check every day trying to catch that little window of profit opportunity.  Indexing is set-and-forget easy, and relaxing, and reassuring, and in the long term a mathematically superior strategy anyway.

And in this case, mathematically superior in the short term, too.  By about two thousand dollars of free money that I have made in the past six weeks by doing nothing with the same amount of money that junioroldtimer decided to cash out.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: JAYSLOL on March 23, 2019, 09:06:20 PM
Well, at least the report JOTs been waiting for just dropped, so I guess we'll find out pretty quick if this was a good move or not.  Personally I think there's a 50/50 chance at best of this report damaging the market in a significant way no matter what it says, but I'm rooting for JOT to get back in at a discount
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: BigMoneyJim on March 24, 2019, 05:42:44 PM
Posting to follow.This will continue to be entertaining.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: secondcor521 on March 24, 2019, 10:37:22 PM
I remain long-term optimistic on the US stock market but I'm short-term pessimistic. I think the sitting president is going to be impeached and there's going to be a knock-down, drag-out fight in which the markets temporarily plummet as all this Russia stuff comes to light.

At this point it seems the underlying investing thesis isn't working out:

"No Impeachment in View, but Democrats Push On With Investigations of Trump" - https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/24/us/politics/trump-impeachment-democrats.html

"S&P 500 futures flat after report finds no Trump campaign collusion with Russia" - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-500-futures-rise-report-221836472.html
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: dividendman on March 25, 2019, 10:49:24 AM
I remain long-term optimistic on the US stock market but I'm short-term pessimistic. I think the sitting president is going to be impeached and there's going to be a knock-down, drag-out fight in which the markets temporarily plummet as all this Russia stuff comes to light.

At this point it seems the underlying investing thesis isn't working out:

"No Impeachment in View, but Democrats Push On With Investigations of Trump" - https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/24/us/politics/trump-impeachment-democrats.html

"S&P 500 futures flat after report finds no Trump campaign collusion with Russia" - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-500-futures-rise-report-221836472.html

Wait...we made the wrong predictions about world events and market reactions to them? How odd...
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: JAYSLOL on March 26, 2019, 02:33:34 PM
I remain long-term optimistic on the US stock market but I'm short-term pessimistic. I think the sitting president is going to be impeached and there's going to be a knock-down, drag-out fight in which the markets temporarily plummet as all this Russia stuff comes to light.

At this point it seems the underlying investing thesis isn't working out:

"No Impeachment in View, but Democrats Push On With Investigations of Trump" - https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/24/us/politics/trump-impeachment-democrats.html

"S&P 500 futures flat after report finds no Trump campaign collusion with Russia" - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-500-futures-rise-report-221836472.html

Wait...we made the wrong predictions about world events and market reactions to them? How odd...

Welp, looks like this isn't going to work out, at least for the reasons the OP stated.  Still possible Trump will go down for something not Russia related, or markets will tank for other reasons, but I think we have to call it

Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: ChpBstrd on March 26, 2019, 03:19:57 PM
I remain long-term optimistic on the US stock market but I'm short-term pessimistic. I think the sitting president is going to be impeached and there's going to be a knock-down, drag-out fight in which the markets temporarily plummet as all this Russia stuff comes to light.

At this point it seems the underlying investing thesis isn't working out:

"No Impeachment in View, but Democrats Push On With Investigations of Trump" - https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/24/us/politics/trump-impeachment-democrats.html

"S&P 500 futures flat after report finds no Trump campaign collusion with Russia" - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-500-futures-rise-report-221836472.html

Wait...we made the wrong predictions about world events and market reactions to them? How odd...

Welp, looks like this isn't going to work out, at least for the reasons the OP stated.  Still possible Trump will go down for something not Russia related, or markets will tank for other reasons, but I think we have to call it

Keep in mind all we've seen is a 4 page summary by a Trump employee. The actual Mueller report has not been disclosed to Congress or anyone else outside the White House. Nor will it be. Instead there will be years of legal wrangling and political gridlock over the issue. Stocks could skyrocket under such stable conditions.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: sol on March 29, 2019, 08:41:58 PM
Another week, another lost opportunity to make money in the stock market.

junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11 after one week of trying to time the market.
On Feb 22 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $1,866.26 after two weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 01 the closing price was $70.28, meaning that he had cost himself $2,402.03 after three weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 08 the closing price was $68.62, meaning that he had cost himself $919.73 after four weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 15 the closing price was $70.56, meaning that he had cost himself $2,652.05 after five weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 22 the closing price was $69.49, meaning that he had cost himself $1,696.60 after six weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,030.21.
On Mar 29 the closing price was $70.43, meaning that he had cost himself $2,535.97 after seven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,869.58.

No comment this week, just sadness.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: dividendman on March 29, 2019, 10:48:32 PM
Another week, another lost opportunity to make money in the stock market.

junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11 after one week of trying to time the market.
On Feb 22 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $1,866.26 after two weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 01 the closing price was $70.28, meaning that he had cost himself $2,402.03 after three weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 08 the closing price was $68.62, meaning that he had cost himself $919.73 after four weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 15 the closing price was $70.56, meaning that he had cost himself $2,652.05 after five weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 22 the closing price was $69.49, meaning that he had cost himself $1,696.60 after six weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,030.21.
On Mar 29 the closing price was $70.43, meaning that he had cost himself $2,535.97 after seven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,869.58.

No comment this week, just sadness.

On the bright side, Top might be in for his losses
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: davisgang90 on March 30, 2019, 04:43:29 AM
I keep tabs on this thread more than my own investments!  Set and forget.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: never give up on March 30, 2019, 07:19:36 AM
Yep I only know what the market has been doing because of this thread. Other than that I havenít got a clue.

I think this is a really useful thread for anyone new to investing. By all means try to time the market if you want. You may get lucky, you may not. If like me though you havenít got a clue, just keep buying at whatever asset allocation makes you happy and ignore the noise of global political events, that are offputting when new to investing. The key for me (once scared of investing) is to perceive the stocks I buy as me purchasing a bit of the world economy rather than a slip of paper that may rise or fall over the next couple of weeks. Iím not gambling here Iím investing for my future. It really has helped me stop worrying about market falls.

The media here (Iím in the UK) are starting to talk up a global recession (bless them) so junioroldtimer may still be able to buy in at a lower point at some point in the future. However Iím not selling and will just keep buying. Best of luck to the OP.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: philli14 on March 30, 2019, 10:19:07 AM
PTF. Has been fun catching up on the thread.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Alchemisst on March 30, 2019, 07:08:39 PM
I have been looking into this also and I believe the PE10 ratio is important - the average of the past 10 years earnings of the market divided by current price. Historically the average has been around 15, and over 15 leads to below average returns over the next 10 years, over 25 is negative returns. The market is currently at 30 I belive.

Some good charts/info here:

http://www.early-retirement-planning-in ... eturn.html

http://www.early-retirement-planning-in ... ictor.html

http://www.early-retirement-planning-in ... heory.html

http://www.early-retirement-planning-in ... 6-VII.html

There is also a market timers thread on bogleheads that has been pretty active lately:

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=276618
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: waltworks on March 30, 2019, 10:40:08 PM
The last time Schiller PE/10 was at or below 15 was the 1980s, dude, except for a very brief period in 2009 when it got close. There are also all kinds of problems with comparing earnings pre-GAAP mark to market (90s sometime?) which depresses the modern PE numbers in comparison. 

I expect lower returns than historical averages due to P/E ratios being high, sure. But the alternative is to sit on cash and I *know* that is a crap move. PE has a numerator AND a denominator, remember. High PE ratios don't mean you can expect to buy in cheap after a crash - they can also mean that prices grow slower than earnings for a while.

-W
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: ChpBstrd on March 31, 2019, 08:39:32 PM
The last time Schiller PE/10 was at or below 15 was the 1980s, dude, except for a very brief period in 2009 when it got close. There are also all kinds of problems with comparing earnings pre-GAAP mark to market (90s sometime?) which depresses the modern PE numbers in comparison. 

^ YES.

I would like a 2nd opinion besides PE ratio. Ideally, that would be the price to free cash flow (i.e. free cash flow yield) of the S&P 500, charted over the course of decades. Apparently, Google can't find it. Anyone know where I could locate historical data on this metric?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: FrugalSaver on April 01, 2019, 05:17:00 AM
I remain long-term optimistic on the US stock market but I'm short-term pessimistic. I think the sitting president is going to be impeached and there's going to be a knock-down, drag-out fight in which the markets temporarily plummet as all this Russia stuff comes to light.

I'll let you guys know how I do. I intend to sell 893 shares of VTSAX. I will buy back in when the price is significantly cheaper.

Current VSTAX price: $68.18

Cross your fingers for me or call me crazy. We'll see how this goes.

This has not aged well. Careful where one gets their propaganda. It can cost you a fortune
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: sol on April 01, 2019, 09:17:36 AM
Careful where one gets their propaganda. It can cost you a fortune

In this case it's cost him about $3k, based on moving $60k of assets, or roughly 5% of his fortune in less than two months. 

There are worse ways to lose your money. 

But he's not sunk yet. Missing out on a 5% rise after you pull out of the market hurts, but it's not fatal.  We've certainly had days in the market where we dropped more than 5% in a matter of hours, so maybe he's hoping for some sort of economic catastrophe?  You know, the kind your every-day average guy sits at home and prays for, where millions of people are out of work and children go hungry?  Where pillars of our economy crumble to dust, and the national debt skyrockets, and our foreign adversaries lick their chops at the prospect of America's downfall? 

This sort of steady average climb is always the problem for market timers, though.  At this rate, in another few months we could have a full blown recession and the market could drop 20% and he would STILL have lost money on the trade.  Even if you can correctly predict a coming crash, if you get the timing wrong by a matter of months you can miss out on more in gains that you avoid in losses, making the whole thing a losing strategy even if you're mostly correct.

I'm still playing it safe.  I'm fully invested in the stock market at percentages dictated by my asset allocation, just like I have been for the past 10 years.  Some day the market will tank and I'll lose big, but my losses will be much smaller than my gains over that 10 year period.  I accept this volatility as a necessary part of the market making me so very very rich in the long run.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Telecaster on April 01, 2019, 11:57:27 AM
The last time Schiller PE/10 was at or below 15 was the 1980s, dude, except for a very brief period in 2009 when it got close. There are also all kinds of problems with comparing earnings pre-GAAP mark to market (90s sometime?) which depresses the modern PE numbers in comparison. 

I expect lower returns than historical averages due to P/E ratios being high, sure. But the alternative is to sit on cash and I *know* that is a crap move. PE has a numerator AND a denominator, remember. High PE ratios don't mean you can expect to buy in cheap after a crash - they can also mean that prices grow slower than earnings for a while.

-W

^ This simple fact is misunderstood by many people.  A higher than average PE implies lower than average long term future returns.  Nothing wrong with that.  Mathematically you can't be above average all the time.   A high PE ratio does not imply the market is about to crash.  It might crash.  Or it might simply go sideways for a period of time. 

Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: HBFIRE on April 01, 2019, 01:39:05 PM
   A high PE ratio does not imply the market is about to crash.  It might crash.  Or it might simply go sideways for a period of time.

If you really think it indicates these two options statistically, then it would make sense to take your money out during such indicators and put it somewhere earning some interest.  The PE ratio has been high for 27 years.  What do you think is going to change in the next few decades?

The problem is that a "high PE ratio" keeps getting adjusted upward over time, the "experts" have to keep adjusting it upward as new data contradicts what they had predicted.  They used to say low 20's was considered high, and over 25 was considered "extreme".  Now 30 is the new marker.

The wild card in all of this is that companies are going to see profitability shoot the roof over the next few decades as AI takes over.  How will that impact the PE ratio?  I'm sure this is being priced in already to some extent.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Raeon on April 01, 2019, 07:55:32 PM
Part of me wants to move from 95/5 stocks/bonds to 80/20 until the next big drop but I just can't justify creating a tax event to do so.  Even if the market were to go sideways for awhile or drop I'm not sure it'd be enough to offset the tax hit.  Instead, newly earned/deposited money went into bonds last month and I continue to keep my speculation within my "play money" retail account to scratch the itch. (~5% of stash)

There seems to be a big drop every decade or so on average.  What's everyone's thoughts on leveraging some margin when the next one hits?  Even if I don't perfectly catch the bottom the big dips never seem to last long so it doesn't seem like I'd get eaten up too much in interest while waiting for a turnaround.  Once it returns to pre-drop levels (or even just a reasonable return) I would back out of margin and go back to plain money again.  It's an idea I've been toying with to keep from sitting on the sidelines in an irrational bull market but still capitalize on those nasty 20%+ drops.  As far as I can see the biggest risk lies in incorrectly identifying the bottom and getting in too soon, thus multiplying your losses to the point of not being able to break even.  [Again, this would be in my play money account]
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: theolympians on April 01, 2019, 10:47:02 PM
Part of me wants to move from 95/5 stocks/bonds to 80/20 until the next big drop but I just can't justify creating a tax event to do so.  Even if the market were to go sideways for awhile or drop I'm not sure it'd be enough to offset the tax hit.  Instead, newly earned/deposited money went into bonds last month and I continue to keep my speculation within my "play money" retail account to scratch the itch. (~5% of stash)

There seems to be a big drop every decade or so on average.  What's everyone's thoughts on leveraging some margin when the next one hits?  Even if I don't perfectly catch the bottom the big dips never seem to last long so it doesn't seem like I'd get eaten up too much in interest while waiting for a turnaround.  Once it returns to pre-drop levels (or even just a reasonable return) I would back out of margin and go back to plain money again.  It's an idea I've been toying with to keep from sitting on the sidelines in an irrational bull market but still capitalize on those nasty 20%+ drops.  As far as I can see the biggest risk lies in incorrectly identifying the bottom and getting in too soon, thus multiplying your losses to the point of not being able to break even.  [Again, this would be in my play money account]

Is that "market timing"?   :)
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: secondcor521 on April 01, 2019, 10:53:03 PM
Part of me wants to move from 95/5 stocks/bonds to 80/20 until the next big drop but I just can't justify creating a tax event to do so.  Even if the market were to go sideways for awhile or drop I'm not sure it'd be enough to offset the tax hit.  Instead, newly earned/deposited money went into bonds last month and I continue to keep my speculation within my "play money" retail account to scratch the itch. (~5% of stash)

There seems to be a big drop every decade or so on average.  What's everyone's thoughts on leveraging some margin when the next one hits?  Even if I don't perfectly catch the bottom the big dips never seem to last long so it doesn't seem like I'd get eaten up too much in interest while waiting for a turnaround.  Once it returns to pre-drop levels (or even just a reasonable return) I would back out of margin and go back to plain money again.  It's an idea I've been toying with to keep from sitting on the sidelines in an irrational bull market but still capitalize on those nasty 20%+ drops.  As far as I can see the biggest risk lies in incorrectly identifying the bottom and getting in too soon, thus multiplying your losses to the point of not being able to break even.  [Again, this would be in my play money account]

Is that "market timing"?   :)

Only when other people do it.  :)
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Telecaster on April 02, 2019, 01:03:55 AM
   A high PE ratio does not imply the market is about to crash.  It might crash.  Or it might simply go sideways for a period of time.

If you really think it indicates these two options statistically, then it would make sense to take your money out during such indicators and put it somewhere earning some interest.  The PE ratio has been high for 27 years.  What do you think is going to change in the next few decades?

It might make sense to you, but it doesn't make a lick of sense to me.  I made a point of agreeing with Waltwork's post that going to cash based on PE was meritless.

The part of my post that you didn't quote was the important part, namely  "A higher than average PE implies lower than average long term future returns.  Nothing wrong with that.  Mathematically you can't be above average all the time.  "

If we go back 20 years the PE/10 was 32 (that's higher than average) and the next 20 years the S&P gained (including dividends) about 6.6% a year, which is lower than the all-time long term average (as far back as we have data) which is about 9%.  So yeah, the starting valuation matters.  But it is stupid to give up the 6.6% hoping for a better entry point.  Sometimes the better entry point never happens.

And again, you can't be above average all the time. So just accept "below average" and forget about timing the market.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Raeon on April 02, 2019, 07:44:42 AM
Definitely still market timing lol, you're right. I guess it just feels like timing based on a reaction to a wild market event vs a proactive hope for one.
Probably not justifiable from an investment perspective, but I do enjoy the gamble from an entertainment perspective.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: ChpBstrd on April 02, 2019, 09:10:51 AM
Part of me wants to move from 95/5 stocks/bonds to 80/20 until the next big drop but I just can't justify creating a tax event to do so.  Even if the market were to go sideways for awhile or drop I'm not sure it'd be enough to offset the tax hit.  Instead, newly earned/deposited money went into bonds last month and I continue to keep my speculation within my "play money" retail account to scratch the itch. (~5% of stash)

There seems to be a big drop every decade or so on average.  What's everyone's thoughts on leveraging some margin when the next one hits?  Even if I don't perfectly catch the bottom the big dips never seem to last long so it doesn't seem like I'd get eaten up too much in interest while waiting for a turnaround.  Once it returns to pre-drop levels (or even just a reasonable return) I would back out of margin and go back to plain money again.  It's an idea I've been toying with to keep from sitting on the sidelines in an irrational bull market but still capitalize on those nasty 20%+ drops.  As far as I can see the biggest risk lies in incorrectly identifying the bottom and getting in too soon, thus multiplying your losses to the point of not being able to break even.  [Again, this would be in my play money account]

My IPS says to hold most of my equity allocation in a protected put strategy. E.g. Buy 100 shares of SPY and buy one put option. SPY is my tool of choice because options are available with 2+ years duration, meaning that time decay occurs about as slowly as possible AND I have a good amount of time to wait out a bear market. Then I have a rule that I will sell my puts if SPY drops 20% from the most recent high, no matter how scary it is at the time. Proceeds are to go into more shares of the stock.

I set this strategy about a year ago and it served me well in early January 2019 when I followed my rule and sold the puts for a few thousand in profits and bought more shares near what happened to be the bottom. I am now buying the puts back for half what I sold them for, and/or rolling forward in time. I have to sell some (but not all) of the shares I bought in January to buy the puts.

My portfolio value still dropped in the 4th quarter, because options do not move dollar-for-dollar with shares. Had markets continued to drop 2008-style, I would have simply "missed out" on a big part of the losses.

This is not market timing because no prediction about future performance is made. If stocks go up, that's fine because my hedge allowed me to tolerate a higher stock allocation than I'd normally hold, and that higher allocation offsets the losses on the hedge. If stocks go down, that's fine, I'll just make profits from selling my puts when we're 20% down (and the puts are maybe 100% up). The strategy only assumes 20% downturns will occur about as often as they've always occurred.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: HBFIRE on April 02, 2019, 10:46:42 AM


It might make sense to you, but it doesn't make a lick of sense to me.  I made a point of agreeing with Waltwork's post that going to cash based on PE was meritless.

The part of my post that you didn't quote was the important part, namely  "A higher than average PE implies lower than average long term future returns.  Nothing wrong with that.  Mathematically you can't be above average all the time.  "

If we go back 20 years the PE/10 was 32 (that's higher than average) and the next 20 years the S&P gained (including dividends) about 6.6% a year, which is lower than the all-time long term average (as far back as we have data) which is about 9%.  So yeah, the starting valuation matters.  But it is stupid to give up the 6.6% hoping for a better entry point.  Sometimes the better entry point never happens.

And again, you can't be above average all the time. So just accept "below average" and forget about timing the market.

No, I would not pull my money out because I don't think those are the 2 options.

Your quote was
It might crash.  Or it might simply go sideways for a period of time.

  If these are really what you think the options are, logically pulling your money out would be a good play.  Maybe this is not what you meant?   Sideways does not mean gaining 6% a year.  Sideways would be akin to the Japan market.  Either of these options is horrible for an investment.  Hence if you really think these are the two possibilities, keeping invested would be like banging your head against a wall.  The bottom line is we don't know what the markets will do.  If the PE ratio was an accurate predictor indicator, market timing would be a valid strategy.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Tyson on April 02, 2019, 11:43:44 AM


It might make sense to you, but it doesn't make a lick of sense to me.  I made a point of agreeing with Waltwork's post that going to cash based on PE was meritless.

The part of my post that you didn't quote was the important part, namely  "A higher than average PE implies lower than average long term future returns.  Nothing wrong with that.  Mathematically you can't be above average all the time.  "

If we go back 20 years the PE/10 was 32 (that's higher than average) and the next 20 years the S&P gained (including dividends) about 6.6% a year, which is lower than the all-time long term average (as far back as we have data) which is about 9%.  So yeah, the starting valuation matters.  But it is stupid to give up the 6.6% hoping for a better entry point.  Sometimes the better entry point never happens.

And again, you can't be above average all the time. So just accept "below average" and forget about timing the market.

No, I would not pull my money out because I don't think those are the 2 options.

Your quote was
It might crash.  Or it might simply go sideways for a period of time.

  If these are really what you think the options are, logically pulling your money out would be a good play.  Maybe this is not what you meant?   Sideways does not mean gaining 6% a year.  Sideways would be akin to the Japan market.  Either of these options is horrible for an investment.  Hence if you really think these are the two possibilities, keeping invested would be like banging your head against a wall.  The bottom line is we don't know what the markets will do.  If the PE ratio was an accurate predictor indicator, market timing would be a valid strategy.

Yeah, its funny, people are often like "wait, PE ratio means I might not get 9% return on my money in the future", and then they proceed to do things with their money that will almost certainly GUARANTEE not getting 9%.  Like "Hey, stocks might only get me 5% so I'm going to cash where I might end up with zero percent".  Good lord have these people never taken a statistics class or understand the nature of probability? 
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Telecaster on April 02, 2019, 01:47:58 PM
  If these are really what you think the options are, logically pulling your money out would be a good play.  Maybe this is not what you meant?   Sideways does not mean gaining 6% a year.  Sideways would be akin to the Japan market.  Either of these options is horrible for an investment.  Hence if you really think these are the two possibilities, keeping invested would be like banging your head against a wall.  The bottom line is we don't know what the markets will do.  If the PE ratio was an accurate predictor indicator, market timing would be a valid strategy.

Either you didn't read my post carefully or I'm not making myself clear. 

I'd best repeat this part again so it is front and center:

 
Quote from: Telecaster
I made a point of agreeing with Waltwork's post that going to cash based on PE was meritless.

What I am saying--and I've said this several times but I'll say it again--Higher than average PE predicts lower than average future returns.   And there's nothing wrong with below average future returns.   It is mathematically impossible to be above average all of the time. 

How you construct that "below average" means you should go cash is beyond me.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: HBFIRE on April 02, 2019, 02:12:27 PM

Either you didn't read my post carefully or I'm not making myself clear. 

Ok I guess I misunderstood your statement then when you said either things will crash or go sideways. 

It might crash.  Or it might simply go sideways for a period of time.

To me sideways means no gains as in what we saw with Japan -- in that case you would not want to be invested.  If the options were truly sideways or crash, going to cash would be a no brainer.  Also, history does not bear out that PE ratio can predict future returns.  Even recent history has gone counter to this notion.  This is why the "experts" keep adjusting the markers.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: ChpBstrd on April 02, 2019, 08:11:57 PM
What I am saying--and I've said this several times but I'll say it again--Higher than average PE predicts lower than average future returns.   And there's nothing wrong with below average future returns.   It is mathematically impossible to be above average all of the time. 

I wouldn't call it mathematically impossible. If a country's expected growth rate went from, say, 2% per year to 5% per year, for enduring reasons such as market liberalization, a reduction in corruption, resolving a debt or currency crisis, etc. then it would make sense for PE ratios to be permanently higher. The expected growth rate of the country would have increased. Similarly, if a country was hit by a series of crises that depressed earnings for decades and lowered PE's, then a resolution of those crises might lead to normalization in PE ratios, which would bring them above the long-term average.

None of these scenarios necessarily describes the U.S, which is moving backwards in terms of governance, solvency, and stability. However, there are some underreported good things happening in the areas of culture, education, basic research, human resource management, and of course I.T. that make for a long-term bullish case. The math would only be impossible if one assumes flat growth, but that is one scenario among many.

Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Radagast on April 02, 2019, 09:30:27 PM
I wish that we had a way to call bullshit on people's political beliefs as easily as their stock market beliefs. The stock market is just a fraction of American society, ie. society is considerably more complex and less predictable. Yet everybody thinks they are always correct 100% of the time. You would think that people would step back and think "wow my stock market belief has proven to be utterly wrong! Maybe I should stop and challenge all these other deeply held convictions I hold about even more complex matters about which I have even less understanding!"
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Eric on April 03, 2019, 01:01:46 PM
To me sideways means no gains as in what we saw with Japan -- in that case you would not want to be invested.  If the options were truly sideways or crash, going to cash would be a no brainer. 

Dividends exist, and generally pay more than cash, so even literal sideways with 0 increase in the raw measure of the market index would still mean you'd come out ahead by staying invested.

Also, history does not bear out that PE ratio can predict future returns.  Even recent history has gone counter to this notion.  This is why the "experts" keep adjusting the markers.

So you think Shiller won a fucking Nobel prize for something that doesn't actually work?  That's a pretty bold claim.  While we don't know what will happen in the future, CAPE has very high correlation to 10 year real returns in the past.

https://www.kitces.com/blog/shiller-cape-market-valuation-terrible-for-market-timing-but-valuable-for-long-term-retirement-planning/
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: secondcor521 on April 03, 2019, 01:10:24 PM
Shiller didn't win the Nobel Prize for CAPE10.

Cite:  https://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/bios/Shiller.html
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: HBFIRE on April 03, 2019, 01:31:34 PM

Dividends exist, and generally pay more than cash, so even literal sideways with 0 increase in the raw measure of the market index would still mean you'd come out ahead by staying invested.


You'd lose to inflation, there are other places to put your money with a guaranteed inflation return.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Eric on April 03, 2019, 01:35:17 PM
Shiller didn't win the Nobel Prize for CAPE10.

Cite:  https://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/bios/Shiller.html

Okay, "technically" he didn't win explicitly for CAPE alone.  He won for "for their empirical analysis of asset prices" but his main contribution to that is/was CAPE. 

https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2013/shiller/facts/
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Eric on April 03, 2019, 01:36:18 PM

Dividends exist, and generally pay more than cash, so even literal sideways with 0 increase in the raw measure of the market index would still mean you'd come out ahead by staying invested.


You'd lose to inflation, there are other places to put your money with a guaranteed inflation return.

Cash loses to inflation too.  Not sure how pointing out inflation helps your point at all.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: HBFIRE on April 03, 2019, 01:50:32 PM

Cash loses to inflation too.  Not sure how pointing out inflation helps your point at all.

Not if its kept in a decent savings/high yield checking.  Even bonds would be superior to sideways returns.  My point is that if you really expect returns to be sideways or negative based on indicators you think are "reliable", then you should be a market timer.   Also, dividends are just taken from the market share price.  You gain nothing but pay more in taxes.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Eric on April 03, 2019, 02:10:26 PM

Cash loses to inflation too.  Not sure how pointing out inflation helps your point at all.

Not if its kept in a decent savings/high yield checking.  Even bonds would be superior to sideways returns.  My point is that if you really expect returns to be sideways or negative based on indicators you think are "reliable", then you should be a market timer.   Also, dividends are just taken from the market share price.  You gain nothing but pay more in taxes.

I think you should make up your mind.  First you claimed it was a "no brainer to be in cash" for a sideways market.  Now you state that bonds would be better.  Then you claim that "you gain nothing" when receiving a dividend, but that's patently false.  Dividends are part of total return.  And since this discussion is focusing on a sideways market, in that case, dividends are the sole return.  Claiming they are subject to inflation is obvious, but everything is subject to inflation so it's a moot point.

Either way, investing is nearly always going to win, because even sideways markets have returns. Indicators are reliable, but not for short term market timing.  You really should read that Kitces post. I'll link it again for you.


https://www.kitces.com/blog/shiller-cape-market-valuation-terrible-for-market-timing-but-valuable-for-long-term-retirement-planning/
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: HBFIRE on April 03, 2019, 02:13:04 PM

I think you should make up your mind.  First you claimed it was a "no brainer to be in cash" for a sideways market. 

No, I'd never take my money out of the stock market.  But that's because I don't think the PE ratio is a reliable indicator.  It seems you've lost track of what the discussion was.  I was responding to a user who said the current ratio indicates an imminent crash or sideways returns.  My comment was that if he really thinks that, he should immediately remove his investments and put it into something that will provide a return.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Eric on April 03, 2019, 02:35:29 PM

I think you should make up your mind.  First you claimed it was a "no brainer to be in cash" for a sideways market. 

No, I'd never take my money out of the stock market.  But that's because I don't think the PE ratio is a reliable indicator.  It seems you've lost track of what the discussion was.  I was responding to a user who said the current ratio indicates an imminent crash or sideways returns.  My comment was that if he really thinks that, he should immediately remove his investments and put it into something that will provide a return.

I'm following along.  I agree with everything Telecaster said.  You're either taking what he said out of context or focusing to much on the idea that sideways means zero returns.  It does not.  Here was the whole statement, with context:

The last time Schiller PE/10 was at or below 15 was the 1980s, dude, except for a very brief period in 2009 when it got close. There are also all kinds of problems with comparing earnings pre-GAAP mark to market (90s sometime?) which depresses the modern PE numbers in comparison. 

I expect lower returns than historical averages due to P/E ratios being high, sure. But the alternative is to sit on cash and I *know* that is a crap move. PE has a numerator AND a denominator, remember. High PE ratios don't mean you can expect to buy in cheap after a crash - they can also mean that prices grow slower than earnings for a while.

-W

^ This simple fact is misunderstood by many people.  A higher than average PE implies lower than average long term future returns.  Nothing wrong with that.  Mathematically you can't be above average all the time.   A high PE ratio does not imply the market is about to crash.  It might crash.  Or it might simply go sideways for a period of time.

A high CAPE absolutely does imply lower than average forward looking returns, whether you believe in it or not.  The threshold for what is "high" has shifted over time, but it still exists, and when CAPE is high, future returns are likely to be lower than when the opposite is the case.  Telecaster's statements above in no way, shape, or form imply that anything imminent is about to happen nor that anyone should time the market based on CAPE. His post and the following one (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/welp-i'm-going-to-take-a-stab-at-timing-the-market/msg2338782/#msg2338782) are saying the exact opposite of that, stating that lower than average returns still mean it's good to be invested because they are better than the alternative.

I agree that CAPE is not a reliable indicator of an imminent crash, but no one ever claimed it was.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: HBFIRE on April 03, 2019, 02:44:37 PM

the idea that sideways means zero returns.  It does not.  Here was the whole statement, with context:

Sideways indeed means negative returns, as inflation eats away at your money.  As mentioned, you can match or even outperform inflation with safer investments if you think the market will be headed sideways or negative. 
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Eric on April 03, 2019, 02:47:51 PM
Welp, I tried.  I didn't realize you were being intentionally obtuse when I started.  But it's clear now!
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: waltworks on April 03, 2019, 02:55:14 PM
Well, my point was that P/E can stay stable while share prices skyrocket - if earnings skyrocket too. Likewise P/E can drop to be super low without share prices losing anything at all if earnings go up.

I mean, 3 or 4 years ago P/E was up close to 25. That didn't make it a bad time to invest, because even though P/E has dropped since then, earnings have risen a ton and so have share prices.

Note that I'm not saying stocks will never crash, or that investing now guarantees you anything. But if you're waiting for P/E at historical averages to invest, I think you'll be waiting a long time. We've been stable around 20 or so for almost 30 years now, albeit with a couple wild swings up crazy high. If I were a betting man, I'd bet on 20 being the new normal.

Oh, wait, I am betting on that. All the time when my dividends reinvest.

-W
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: dougules on April 03, 2019, 03:44:26 PM

the idea that sideways means zero returns.  It does not.  Here was the whole statement, with context:

Sideways indeed means negative returns, as inflation eats away at your money.  As mentioned, you can match or even outperform inflation with safer investments if you think the market will be headed sideways or negative.

What investments are guaranteed to keep up with inflation?  The only thing I can think of are TIPS.  Returns on those are pretty low right now, so you're paying for that really low risk with a really low reward. 
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: HBFIRE on April 03, 2019, 03:46:30 PM

What investments are guaranteed to keep up with inflation?  The only thing I can think of are TIPS.  Returns on those are pretty low right now, so you're paying for that really low risk with a really low reward.

Currently high yield checking accts are paying 3.3%.  Highest savings rate is at 2.45%.  Both of these are above current inflation rate.  TIPS is another option.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: sol on April 03, 2019, 03:55:44 PM

Currently high yield checking accts are paying 3.3%.  Highest savings rate is at 2.45%.  Both of these are above current inflation rate.  TIPS is another option.

TIPS are the only option that I know of.  They were created for this specific purpose.

Neither checking nor savings count are guaranteed to match or beat inflation.  The fact that some of them are beating inflation right now is no more relevant than is the fact that stocks are also beating inflation right now.  That can all change next week.  There is no guarantee that your high yield checking account will actually pay 3.3% over the course of the next year, or three or ten. 
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Telecaster on April 03, 2019, 11:17:26 PM

No, I'd never take my money out of the stock market.  But that's because I don't think the PE ratio is a reliable indicator.  It seems you've lost track of what the discussion was.  I was responding to a user who said the current ratio indicates an imminent crash or sideways returns. 

Yes, and we've been trying to correct your misconceptions ever since.   This is what I said:

Quote from: Telecaster
A high PE ratio does not imply the market is about to crash.


Only a liar or a person with  limited mental abilities would conclude that means there will be an imminent crash.  Yet you're all in.  Good luck with your investing. 

Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Full_Beard on April 04, 2019, 11:11:34 AM
Timing the market works for few and fails for many. Tracking the OP's decision is fine, but trying to find any meaning as to whether his decision a month ago was wise or foolish based on day-to-day changes is about as useful as checking your portfolio's balance every day.

As for pulling out, I agree that it shouldn't be based on pure politics -- impeachment, Russia, etc. But, if you're concerned about the effects from President Trump's trade policies, his disintegrating rapport with foreign leaders, the long-term effects from his tax cuts, the potential effect from his verbal barbs at the Fed, etc. In other words, if you're looking around at the state of play and you have a lack of confidence in what the next 1-2 years will bring, then there might be some financial moves (other than selling all to time the market) that create a more conservative profile and make you feel better. If you feel better riding out the waves, don't do a thing. There are logical reasons to ride the waves based on history. But, your comfort/anxiety can be factored into the process.

The Shiller PE ratio is a useful indicator for managing expectations for future 5- and 10-year averages. It's not a market timing tool.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Davnasty on April 04, 2019, 12:25:17 PM
No, I'd never take my money out of the stock market.  But that's because I don't think the PE ratio is a reliable indicator.  It seems you've lost track of what the discussion was.  I was responding to a user who said the current ratio indicates an imminent crash or sideways returns. 

Yes, and we've been trying to correct your misconceptions ever since.   This is what I said:

Quote from: Telecaster
A high PE ratio does not imply the market is about to crash.


Only a liar or a person with  limited mental abilities would conclude that means there will be an imminent crash.  Yet you're all in.  Good luck with your investing.

I think what really happened here is that HBFIRE read the last part of what you said

Quote
A high PE ratio does not imply the market is about to crash.  It might crash.  Or it might simply go sideways for a period of time.

And assumed you meant those were the only two options, which of course is not what you said. In fact if you put it back into context that's pretty obvious.

Quote
This simple fact is misunderstood by many people.  A higher than average PE implies lower than average long term future returns.  Nothing wrong with that.  Mathematically you can't be above average all the time.   A high PE ratio does not imply the market is about to crash.  It might crash.  Or it might simply go sideways for a period of time.

Which you explained but it didn't get through for some reason.

The part of my post that you didn't quote was the important part, namely  "A higher than average PE implies lower than average long term future returns.  Nothing wrong with that.  Mathematically you can't be above average all the time.  "

No, I would not pull my money out because I don't think those are the 2 options.

Your quote was
It might crash.  Or it might simply go sideways for a period of time.

  If these are really what you think the options are, logically pulling your money out would be a good play.  Maybe this is not what you meant? Sideways does not mean gaining 6% a year.  Sideways would be akin to the Japan market.  Either of these options is horrible for an investment.  Hence if you really think these are the two possibilities, keeping invested would be like banging your head against a wall.  The bottom line is we don't know what the markets will do.  If the PE ratio was an accurate predictor indicator, market timing would be a valid strategy.

Does this make sense now @HBFIRE? There was never really disagreement about what a high PE ratio indicates, just an incorrect assumption about what somebody meant.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Tyson on April 07, 2019, 10:08:25 AM
You know, in my own investing mindset, I used to be tempted to try to time the market on occasion.  But threads like this one and the epic (and continual) failures demonstrated in them has pretty much cured me of that mindset completely. 

So, OP, I'm sorry you've lost out on some gains, but just know that your posting has helped others to learn a valuable lesson.  Thank you.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: JAYSLOL on April 07, 2019, 11:23:10 AM
Update this week?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: waltworks on April 07, 2019, 01:48:07 PM
Swiping a bit from @sol:

junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11 after one week of trying to time the market.
On Feb 22 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $1,866.26 after two weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 01 the closing price was $70.28, meaning that he had cost himself $2,402.03 after three weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 08 the closing price was $68.62, meaning that he had cost himself $919.73 after four weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 15 the closing price was $70.56, meaning that he had cost himself $2,652.05 after five weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 22 the closing price was $69.49, meaning that he had cost himself $1,696.60 after six weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,030.21.
On Mar 29 the closing price was $70.43, meaning that he had cost himself $2,535.97 after seven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,869.58.

And now, on April 5th the closing price was $71.94, meaning that he had cost himself $3884.32 after eight weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid - a total of $4217.93.

That's almost 7% of his initial investment.

I agree that tracking it week to week is a bit silly, but I think it's worth keeping this at the top of the forum so that folks considering a similar strategy can see it. And like Sol, I'm actually hoping the OP gets a chance to buy back in at a discount.

-W

Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: JAYSLOL on April 07, 2019, 09:15:18 PM

I agree that tracking it week to week is a bit silly, but I think it's worth keeping this at the top of the forum so that folks considering a similar strategy can see it. And like Sol, I'm actually hoping the OP gets a chance to buy back in at a discount.

-W

Thanks.  Agreed, these market timing threads should be strung around the neck of this forum like cloves of garlic to ward off the market timing vampires. 
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: bisimpson on April 08, 2019, 11:29:52 AM
You know, in my own investing mindset, I used to be tempted to try to time the market on occasion.  But threads like this one and the epic (and continual) failures demonstrated in them has pretty much cured me of that mindset completely. 

So, OP, I'm sorry you've lost out on some gains, but just know that your posting has helped others to learn a valuable lesson.  Thank you.

I agree. I know all the catch phrases like ďitís not timing the market, itís time in the market,Ē but seeing it play out is truly a cautionary tale. Even if the market drops 15% from this point, Iím not sure that the gain that he would make is worth the risk. And he still has to call the bottom.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: HBFIRE on April 08, 2019, 12:05:02 PM
You know, in my own investing mindset, I used to be tempted to try to time the market on occasion.  But threads like this one and the epic (and continual) failures demonstrated in them has pretty much cured me of that mindset completely. 

Agreed.  Of course I've never had substantial assets in a big downturn (i had nothing invested in the great recession).  That will be the true "test" for myself, and I'm sure there are several threads that went through that period to look to.  I am not going to pretend in our current long bull market that it will be easy for me to deal with seeing things drop by 50%.  I like to think I'll be fine emotionally, but I have to be realistic -- long term investors frequently write about the sense of panic they deal with, even after going through several downturns.  I guess its the price we pay for higher returns.  As Buffet loves to say ďYou only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out. ď   I feel like it's hard to know what asset allocation I'm emotionally "comfortable" with without going through a huge downturn.  Sure, I can intellectualize it and rationalize what I'm comfortable with, but how can I really viscerally know?  I "think" I'm fine with my current allocation, but am I really?  I guess I'll find out.  Small downturns are a good time to always be evaluating the allocation jitters I guess.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: BicycleB on April 08, 2019, 02:13:56 PM
Small downturns are a good time to always be evaluating the allocation jitters I guess.

@HBFIRE, great point!
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: sol on April 08, 2019, 03:44:54 PM
I've never had substantial assets in a big downturn (i had nothing invested in the great recession).  That will be the true "test" for myself, and I'm sure there are several threads that went through that period to look to.

This forum has a wealth of history from people going through this "testing" process.  My impression from reading a bunch of them is that basically nobody gets nervous about their asset allocation and then switches it to something more conservative in time to avoid a crash.  Either people get nervous and switch to cash/bonds too early, and miss out on prolonged bull market runs, or they don't get nervous at all and let it ride through thick and thin.  A very few unlucky souls have watched a crash unfold and then gotten nervous and switched to cash bonds, essentially dooming themselves by selling low and not rebuying ever. 

So if you're the type of person who is has internalized the investing advice here and will ride the market up and down, then congratulations you're done and your investing life will be relatively stress free.  But if not, and you're the type of person who is just waiting for your turn to freak out (and cash everything out) you're basically doomed to guess wrong one way or the other.  Sorry.

But someone is busily switching their asset allocation to all-cash basically all the time, so eventually someone is going to guess right and avoid a dip.  The problem we've had is that all of the folks who fall into that bucket and came here to brag about missing a week or two of negative returns have miraculously disappeared from the forum when the market strongly rebounded the following month or quarter.  Remember, you have to guess right twice in a row, at the top AND the bottom, to win that bet.  We have seen a few lucky souls do one or the other, but not do both on purpose.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: HBFIRE on April 08, 2019, 03:54:28 PM

So if you're the type of person who is has internalized the investing advice here and will ride the market up and down, then congratulations you're done and your investing life will be relatively stress free. 

I have, at least on an intellectual level.  I guess I'm trying to be honest with myself that being able to withstand a massive downturn on a visceral level is something else entirely, and until I have gone through that I won't know how I'll handle it.  Unfortunately, as a human, logic alone isn't always enough.  I like to review this thread every now and then just to keep my perspective.  https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=79939
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: BigMoneyJim on April 08, 2019, 07:19:08 PM
Well this is brutal. I haven't been tempted to market time...ever? But I did change my total stock allocation from 60% to 75%+ about the time this thread started.

Not because I thought it was a particularly good time to do so. I just have almost 2 years' worth of cash in taxable accounts, a pension in 6 years and SS in 13 years. With the fixed income closer than it was 20 years ago and accessible cash, my long term strategy is now to go more aggressive with my nest egg since I'm more confident my pension and SS will be there when I get there.

I did notice that at the time, even though I "missed" the big drop in October as a strategy-shift opportunity, year-to-year was flat at the time this thread started. So I made the change feeling satisfied enough that at least year over year wasn't a full bull. I still have all my cash; I just moved a bunch out of bond index funds and into stock index funds.

I'm as shocked as anyone that it's skyrocketing so quickly.

I was recently tempted to try picking individual stocks, because I feel like I can predict some trends better these days. But then it hit me that I'm awful at predicting who profits from those trends. Here's something I posted on another forum (http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/made-in-u-s-shunned-in-china-18580.html#post341716) in 2005. I pretty much called the cloud but got the major players wrong. A bookseller is the leader-by-far for IT infrastructure services? More index funds, please!

Quote
As for how it bodes well for the economy keep reading for a laugh. GM and/or Ford go bankrupt, screw their workers royally but reorganize much leaner and in-the-black and manage to create a few desirable and reliable models. Boeing sells more planes because airlines hate the mammoth A380 and the Boeing fits at any existing gate and existing maintenance hangars. IBM sells higher margin hardware and maintains its reputation as a reliable quality vendor that's worth the price for its products. IKEA and the Gap become popular in China as their economy grows and their workers earn more. Either Microsoft pulls another ace from its sleeve and maintains its dominance everywhere or Red Hat and IBM become major beneficiaries of MS's decline by selling enterprise virtualization hardware and consulting services in traditional form or in prepackaged application servers that are easily customized for the end user by a couple hours of a low-paid tech's time.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: markbike528CBX on April 08, 2019, 07:43:40 PM
@HBFIRE, Thanks for the link to the bogleheads thread.   It is even better than The TOP IS IN thread here, as in more graphs and fewer memes.   I looked up the SP500 since the beginning of the bogleheads thread (2011) to now and was amused about the doooooom and gloooom contrasted by the SP500 chart.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Radagast on April 08, 2019, 08:34:00 PM
@HBFIRE, Thanks for the link to the bogleheads thread.   It is even better than The TOP IS IN thread here, as in more graphs and fewer memes.
I only see three posts containing graphs in seven pages of posts? And way less memes = not as good. TOP IS IN is way better and has way more graphs too!

And like Sol, I'm actually hoping the OP gets a chance to buy back in at a discount.
I am hoping for that as well, but not because I am an altruistic retiree like Sol. With two 401ks and an HSA on biweekly investments, two IRAs on monthly, and taxable accounts quarterly, I want my upcoming regular purchases to be at a discount!
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: JAYSLOL on April 08, 2019, 08:44:03 PM
@HBFIRE, Thanks for the link to the bogleheads thread.   It is even better than The TOP IS IN thread here, as in more graphs and fewer memes.
I only see three posts containing graphs in seven pages of posts? And way less memes = not as good. TOP IS IN is way better and has way more graphs too!

And like Sol, I'm actually hoping the OP gets a chance to buy back in at a discount.
I am hoping for that as well, but not because I am an altruistic retiree like Sol. With two 401ks and an HSA on biweekly investments, two IRAs on monthly, and taxable accounts quarterly, I want my upcoming regular purchases to be at a discount!

Here here!  Bring on the discounts! 
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: AdrianC on April 09, 2019, 08:43:30 AM
Relevant piece here (by an active manager, but don't let that put you off):

https://www.oakmark.com/Commentary/Commentary-Archives/Bill-Nygren-Market-Commentary-1Q19.htm?dtr

"Our position at Oakmark, consistent with historical returns by asset class, is that stocks will produce the highest long-term returns. Therefore, the only market timing that investors can reliably benefit from is periodic rebalancing ó moving portfolios back to their target asset allocations after the market has moved them away."
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: tedman on April 10, 2019, 01:26:40 PM
Apparently Vanguard can break down your investments on an each event basis. So in light of this thread I decided to look at our joint taxable account (my wife is sooooop conservative, like 25% of her networth in cash, but sheís a tenured professor with an insane pension so she won life at this point so I stopped trying to get that cash into a CD or the like) and we invest 2k a month into life growth aggressive (VASGX?) and the swings in 2018 were crazy. We invest on the 25th of the month, and for August and September we got destroyed, October and November were ok to made some money and the December purchase is up like 200%!?!?!?!?.

Itís amazing to me people manage to convince themselves they know anything about this stuff. I invest my Roth on my birthday every year on the closest open market day (Jan 3). So this year I look like a genius and in previous years Iíve looked beyond stupid (as if it matters).
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: BicycleB on April 10, 2019, 05:24:37 PM
^200% seems a little high.

https://www.google.com/search?q=vasgx&oq=vasgx&aqs=chrome..69i57j69i60j0j69i59j0l2.2195j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

12% sounds closer. Maybe check your records?

Curiosity activated...

Regardless, congrats for having a reliable method and sticking to it. Also congrats on being a wise spouse of a prosperous wife!  :)
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: tedman on April 11, 2019, 11:01:00 AM
19.4, I rounded to 20% and then promptly confused my personal VTSAX that I do on the 25th as well. Weíre up 12.2% on that buy, which is still insane to me given how that fund appears to work.

My point though terribly explained that Iím up ~20% on my Dec buy VTSAX and ~12% on our joint VASGX through pure happenstance. I feel as though the more I learn about finance and investing the more obvious it is you really know nothing. I just canít erap my head around someone who comes to this forum and also thinks they can time it. But maybe Iím just more of a veteran since I lost my job in 2009 and theyíve never seen that panic or felt it.

Edit: I just checked, our September Ď18 buy weíre still down and at one point we were probably down 18-20% though itís come back a lot. I havenít looked at my VTSAX, but doing this exercise has really cemented for me why most people should own Bonds or simple funds just to avoid the mental strain in the seinhgs
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: phildonnia on April 11, 2019, 11:25:07 AM
A little story about market timing:

My kids (ages 10, 10, and 12) were interested in stocks, so I set up a fantasy game on MarketWatch so that we could play around with it. 

I've been shrewdly reading the news and trying to do some "value investing" by buying stuff that drops suddenly after a newsworthy event or disappointing earnings report (PG&E, National Beverage Corp, Boeing, etc.) 

My kids bought a whole bunch of stuff they recognized (Nike, Coca-Cola, McDonalds) and then got bored and stopped playing.

The kids have made a little money over the months.  Their genius dad has lost more money that all three of them combined. 

So it's a good lesson, I think: buy good companies; ignore the news; and never trust that your old man is as smart as he pretends to be.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Tyson on April 11, 2019, 11:40:38 AM
A little story about market timing:

My kids (ages 10, 10, and 12) were interested in stocks, so I set up a fantasy game on MarketWatch so that we could play around with it. 

I've been shrewdly reading the news and trying to do some "value investing" by buying stuff that drops suddenly after a newsworthy event or disappointing earnings report (PG&E, National Beverage Corp, Boeing, etc.) 

My kids bought a whole bunch of stuff they recognized (Nike, Coca-Cola, McDonalds) and then got bored and stopped playing.

The kids have made a little money over the months.  Their genius dad has lost more money that all three of them combined. 

So it's a good lesson, I think: buy good companies; ignore the news; and never trust that your old man is as smart as he pretends to be.

That is awesome.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Full_Beard on April 11, 2019, 02:01:13 PM
Yes, that is an awesome, relatable story.

I think this thread would be more apt if, rather than titled, "Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market," the title read, "Welp, I'm super nervous about market and political indicators and someone needs to talk me off the ledge. How can I diversify my 100% SP500 portfolio into something that better reflects my personal risk tolerances?"
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Chuck on April 11, 2019, 02:23:59 PM
I remain long-term optimistic on the US stock market but I'm short-term pessimistic. I think the sitting president is going to be impeached and there's going to be a knock-down, drag-out fight in which the markets temporarily plummet as all this Russia stuff comes to light.

Absolutely none of this aged well. Especially trying to exit the market at the near-bottom.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: sol on April 11, 2019, 02:36:17 PM
I remain long-term optimistic on the US stock market but I'm short-term pessimistic. I think the sitting president is going to be impeached and there's going to be a knock-down, drag-out fight in which the markets temporarily plummet as all this Russia stuff comes to light.

Absolutely none of this aged well. Especially trying to exit the market at the near-bottom.

I was nervous about the market in early 2014. The index had shot up 50% in the preceding two years, and I was sure things had to cool off at some point, to stabilize and let earnings catch up.  I took approximately fifteen thousand dollars out of my taxable brokerage account to buy solar panels for my house, thinking that their very modest financial return would at least be a positive number while I expected the stock market to stay flat or decline. 

Well the solar panels are great, don't get me wrong.  They have already paid for themselves and are now making me money.  But the stock market is up another 50% since then, and I would have made more money by leaving that $15k invested for the past 4+ years. 

My point is that even though it looked like a "top is in" (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/) moment, the most profitable thing I could have done was absolutely nothing.  None of us really have any idea what the market is doing to do next.  Whenever you try to guess, you're just guessing.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: sol on April 12, 2019, 06:37:27 PM
Another week, another missed opportunity to make money by holding the index.

junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11 after one week of trying to time the market.
On Feb 22 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $1,866.26 after two weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 01 the closing price was $70.28, meaning that he had cost himself $2,402.03 after three weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 08 the closing price was $68.62, meaning that he had cost himself $919.73 after four weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 15 the closing price was $70.56, meaning that he had cost himself $2,652.05 after five weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 22 the closing price was $69.49, meaning that he had cost himself $1,696.60 after six weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,030.21.
On Mar 29 the closing price was $70.43, meaning that he had cost himself $2,535.97 after seven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,869.58.
On Apr 05 the closing price was $71.94, meaning that he had cost himself $3,884.32 after eight weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,217.94.
On Apr 12 the closing price was $72.35, meaning that he had cost himself $4,250.43 after nine weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,584.04.

Sadly, there has not yet been a single day since he announced his intention to time the market when he could have bought back in as a winner.  He's just sitting on the sidelines, watching the rest of us make more and more money, week after week.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: secondcor521 on April 12, 2019, 10:22:23 PM
He's just sitting on the sidelines, watching the rest of us make more and more money, week after week.

Not to mention that we don't have as much angst about when to get out and when to get in.

Not to mention that we probably have less tax consequences than he does.

Not to mention that we did less.  (I've been watching Survivor.)
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: ender on April 13, 2019, 11:07:47 AM
The bright side is the first digit of our net worth went up again.

Glad I'm not in cash ;-)
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: MrOnyx on April 13, 2019, 11:42:58 AM
Again, a reminder to any newcomers: the objective here is not to attack or humiliate OP. If anything, we're looking to make an example out of him to any future would-be market timers. Sure, the game isn't over yet, but as things stand, this serves as a cautionary tale.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: ender on April 13, 2019, 11:43:40 AM
Again, a reminder to any newcomers: the objective here is not to attack or humiliate OP. If anything, we're looking to make an example out of him to any future would-be market timers. Sure, the game isn't over yet, but as things stand, this serves as a cautionary tale.

It's worth pointing out the number of times in the past 50 years that people have said similar things to the OP and the relatively few times they were right.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Mighty-Dollar on April 13, 2019, 08:22:40 PM
I think the sitting president is going to be impeached and there's going to be a knock-down, drag-out fight in which the markets temporarily plummet as all this Russia stuff comes to light.
How's that Trump / Russia collusion hoax working out for you? I would advise not getting your news from sources like MSNBC, CNN, the NY Times, the Washington Compost, etc. These are fake news outlets. Once upon a time CNN broadcast real news and InfoWars was fake conspiracy theory news. Now it has been reversed. Everything InfoWars said about Trump has turned out to be true and everything CNN said for 2 years was completely wrong and based on no evidence.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: theolympians on April 14, 2019, 01:09:11 AM
I think the sitting president is going to be impeached and there's going to be a knock-down, drag-out fight in which the markets temporarily plummet as all this Russia stuff comes to light.
How's that Trump / Russia collusion hoax working out for you? I would advise not getting your news from sources like MSNBC, CNN, the NY Times, the Washington Compost, etc. These are fake news outlets. Once upon a time CNN broadcast real news and InfoWars was fake conspiracy theory news. Now it has been reversed. Everything InfoWars said about Trump has turned out to be true and everything CNN said for 2 years was completely wrong and based on no evidence.

+1
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: davisgang90 on April 14, 2019, 05:20:12 AM
I continue to follow this thread much more closely than my investments.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: waltworks on April 14, 2019, 10:39:43 AM
No news source is going to put you in position to time the market, regardless of political leanings.

Lots of people thought Obama would crash the economy too, because they spent too much time reading right wing news.

-W
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: JAYSLOL on April 14, 2019, 10:53:40 AM
No news source is going to put you in position to time the market, regardless of political leanings.

Lots of people thought Obama would crash the economy too, because they spent too much time reading right wing news.

-W

+1
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: AdrianC on April 14, 2019, 01:52:11 PM
The bright side is the first digit of our net worth went up again.

Glad I'm not in cash ;-)

Heh. Me too.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Full_Beard on April 16, 2019, 06:02:39 PM
I think the sitting president is going to be impeached and there's going to be a knock-down, drag-out fight in which the markets temporarily plummet as all this Russia stuff comes to light.
How's that Trump / Russia collusion hoax working out for you? I would advise not getting your news from sources like MSNBC, CNN, the NY Times, the Washington Compost, etc. These are fake news outlets. Once upon a time CNN broadcast real news and InfoWars was fake conspiracy theory news. Now it has been reversed. Everything InfoWars said about Trump has turned out to be true and everything CNN said for 2 years was completely wrong and based on no evidence.
Wow, this went very political - the fake news meme. How about we agree to stick to investment chatter, market timing, and whether one thinks indicators (economic and/or political (regardless of whether you agree/support them)) should factor into your personal balancing of risk/tolerance with diversification?

I can see both sides of the argument, but at the end of the day, I think it's all about one's willingness to take risk and tolerance for when the market is spiraling downward.

That Boglehead post that was linked was very illustrative of the impossibility of knowing with a high degree (perhaps any degree) of certainty where we currently are plotted on the graph that represents the next decade from this point in time.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Mr. Boh on April 22, 2019, 10:40:23 AM
I think the sitting president is going to be impeached and there's going to be a knock-down, drag-out fight in which the markets temporarily plummet as all this Russia stuff comes to light.
How's that Trump / Russia collusion hoax working out for you? I would advise not getting your news from sources like MSNBC, CNN, the NY Times, the Washington Compost, etc. These are fake news outlets. Once upon a time CNN broadcast real news and InfoWars was fake conspiracy theory news. Now it has been reversed. Everything InfoWars said about Trump has turned out to be true and everything CNN said for 2 years was completely wrong and based on no evidence.

Mighty-Dollar you clearly have not read the Mueller report. I suspect that you haven't read much about Alex Jones either.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: lowroller4111 on April 22, 2019, 11:17:54 AM
Well the solar panels are great, don't get me wrong.  They have already paid for themselves and are now making me money.  But the stock market is up another 50% since then, and I would have made more money by leaving that $15k invested for the past 4+ years. 

Yeah, these types of things happen, i've lost way more than that.  I had around $200,000 on the sidelines from 2010-2017 (cumulative across the years not a lumpsum at the start).  This was earmarked for a home purchase which I never really bought due to a multitude of changes in my personal life as well as rapidly escalating prices post 2012.  So in the end, no house and a total waste of capital which I could've deployed.  Oh well, I still have a very nice sized portfolio and i'm fully invested now, thankfully i'm only in my mid 40s so I have loads of time to make up for any prior errors.

Still irks me that I lost out on potentially $200k of market gains...
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: talltexan on April 22, 2019, 12:45:08 PM
I think the same thing about my opulent wedding in 2008 and my opulent car purchase and travel during the year that included it (and, yes, in 2009).
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: powskier on April 23, 2019, 10:01:55 AM
The hardest part of market timing is deciding when to get back in. It is always the part most market timers are quiet about, usually because the fear/emotions that motivate the sell are immediate and concrete but the mythical future time when they "know" when to buy back is predicated on future emotions that do not exist.
Some traders may use specifics such as "I'll buy back in at launch of product X" or" before/after quarterly earnings" but it's going to be tough for OP.
Many of those that thought the market would tank if Trump was elected  lost out when market went up after election. The good thing about staying the course is none of us have to worry if market goes up or down if Trump does/does not go to jail.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: J Boogie on April 23, 2019, 10:21:48 AM
Well the solar panels are great, don't get me wrong.  They have already paid for themselves and are now making me money.  But the stock market is up another 50% since then, and I would have made more money by leaving that $15k invested for the past 4+ years. 

Yeah, these types of things happen, i've lost way more than that.  I had around $200,000 on the sidelines from 2010-2017 (cumulative across the years not a lumpsum at the start).  This was earmarked for a home purchase which I never really bought due to a multitude of changes in my personal life as well as rapidly escalating prices post 2012.  So in the end, no house and a total waste of capital which I could've deployed.  Oh well, I still have a very nice sized portfolio and i'm fully invested now, thankfully i'm only in my mid 40s so I have loads of time to make up for any prior errors.

Still irks me that I lost out on potentially $200k of market gains...

I still like the solar decision though. That's a sure thing, no speculation, pure value to yourself and the planet.

After all, bitcoin would have been a better investment too. Whenever you can get pure productivity uncoupled from speculation I say go for it, but especially if the markets are at or near historic shiller PE ratio highs.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Pennycounter on April 24, 2019, 08:55:09 AM
While my reasons are different than OP, I just exchanged some equities for bond funds. I need some of my post tax in the coming year and was heavily weighted in stocks.  I love the look of the steady upward climb but knew if there was a tumble a la Q4 2018, that it could have short term impacts to us. 

So I wasn't trying to strictly time the market but did get uncomfortable since we are trying to deploy some cash for other investments and everything is just so high.  But I also understand that its the cost of doing business that we may miss some gains.  It also underscores what everyone is saying about an investment plan. I feel like remedial student who hasn't done her homework but I see the value now that I've been doing this for a while.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: SubL stache on April 24, 2019, 10:37:21 AM
Where is jr old timer?  I wish he would give us a look into what he is thinking right now, hold a little longer for a correction?  Jump in now and chalk up the ~8% wiff to learning?

It seems the psychological problem with market timing is that once you do it you are committed to the strategy.  We all understand that sometimes you win and sometimes you lose, but they are betting on winning more and if you accept this premise then you have to keep playing the game...especially if you start out losing...you can never rest, you must always ring your hands and worry about the ups and downs...
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: ChpBstrd on April 24, 2019, 10:51:35 AM
I think I could time the market if someone could create an index of doom posts on the MMM forum. Just have a flag denoting that the OP expressed worry about stocks and graph these by date posted. When the MMM Top is In Index is high, itís a bullish signal. When low, time to enter stop loss orders.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: sol on April 24, 2019, 11:23:49 AM
Where is jr old timer?  I wish he would give us a look into what he is thinking right now, hold a little longer for a correction?  Jump in now and chalk up the ~8% wiff to learning?

He's around.  He was last active on the forum four days ago, but has not posted in any other threads since this one.  So presumably he's reading along with the rest of us, and having a good laugh at the whims of the market.

Or maybe he's biding his time, smirking in a dark corner somewhere just waiting for the horrible crash he still thinks is coming, just waiting for his chance to jump back into this thread with a giant GOTCHA!
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: ChpBstrd on April 24, 2019, 01:08:33 PM
Where is jr old timer?  I wish he would give us a look into what he is thinking right now, hold a little longer for a correction?  Jump in now and chalk up the ~8% wiff to learning?

He's around.  He was last active on the forum four days ago, but has not posted in any other threads since this one.  So presumably he's reading along with the rest of us, and having a good laugh at the whims of the market.

Or maybe he's biding his time, smirking in a dark corner somewhere just waiting for the horrible crash he still thinks is coming, just waiting for his chance to jump back into this thread with a giant GOTCHA!

With zerohedge on one screen and MMM forums on the other, one could play this in a way that guaranteed a gotcha.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: GuitarStv on April 24, 2019, 01:37:35 PM
These threads are fun!
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: solon on April 24, 2019, 02:40:22 PM
I think I could time the market if someone could create an index of doom posts on the MMM forum. Just have a flag denoting that the OP expressed worry about stocks and graph these by date posted. When the MMM Top is In Index is high, itís a bullish signal. When low, time to enter stop loss orders.

Genius! Someone needs to do this.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: sideHustler on April 24, 2019, 02:44:16 PM
Timing the market is tough. The only thing I've done to even attempt it is to buy up stock in strong companies going through some sort of scare or scandal. The price dip is a nice discount that almost always rebounds.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: sol on April 24, 2019, 02:55:27 PM
I think I could time the market if someone could create an index of doom posts on the MMM forum. Just have a flag denoting that the OP expressed worry about stocks and graph these by date posted. When the MMM Top is In Index is high, itís a bullish signal. When low, time to enter stop loss orders.

Genius! Someone needs to do this.

Ahhh, but this is just more recency bias.  Your priors are bad. 

It only looks like a great idea because for the entire lifetime of this forum, the market has soared while forum members predicted doom.  I don't see any predictive power in that history, because I'm not a market timer and I don't believe in chartist bullshit.  Just because you've data mined a convincing signal from the historical record doesn't mean that your signal actually works.  Could just be coincidence, out of the millions of different ways to plot correlations, that you've hit upon one that looks decent.

Unhumorously, that's just as true for the MMM satire index as it is for anything by Gary Antonacci.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: talltexan on April 26, 2019, 07:29:10 AM
Timing the market is tough. The only thing I've done to even attempt it is to buy up stock in strong companies going through some sort of scare or scandal. The price dip is a nice discount that almost always rebounds.

I'd be curious to know some of your recent moves here. GE has certainly been a dog lately. Boeing was a popular choice around the office. Ford also.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Blueberries on April 26, 2019, 08:46:22 AM
Timing the market is tough. The only thing I've done to even attempt it is to buy up stock in strong companies going through some sort of scare or scandal. The price dip is a nice discount that almost always rebounds.

Timing the market and timing individual stocks are two completely different animals.

You will find many people that successfully time stocks (this isn't to say they don't have losses), but it is very difficult, even for professionals, to time the market.  Most don't try.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: lowroller4111 on April 26, 2019, 01:09:52 PM
Keep sharing this great link whenever I can from legendary investor Burton Malkiel (who wrote the bestseller "A random walk down Wall St.")

https://youtu.be/NqKXv5Dkbw4



Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Maenad on April 26, 2019, 04:01:00 PM
The hardest part of market timing is deciding when to get back in. It is always the part most market timers are quiet about, usually because the fear/emotions that motivate the sell are immediate and concrete but the mythical future time when they "know" when to buy back is predicated on future emotions that do not exist.

Yeah, it's a lot easier to be fearful when others are greedy than greedy when they're fearful. There's a lot of perma-bears out there that sound very convincing, and if you combine that with the pessimistic bias that news sources have (bad news gets clicks!), and experiences where something was too good to be true and burned you, you get a reasonable human response that something bad is about to happen and you should cash out while you still can.

It's one of the downsides of our ability to see patterns and predict things - we're so often wrong when it's big complex stuff that has more inputs than we can account for in our little monkey brains.

I'm mentally falling prey to this myself right now. As of market close today, I'm 96.5% FI. I'm literally something like 3 months away, and a year from ER. A recession right now or a crash that doesn't recover quickly would pull this away right as I'm about to reach it, and I'm fighting fear and anger almost constantly, trying to focus on the big picture, and the reality that I'm only in my 40s, and a couple more years of working is far from catastrophic.

I'm almost ashamed of having such a privileged "problem", but there you go.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: sol on April 26, 2019, 06:47:55 PM
Markets were closed last Friday, but using last Thursday's prices and then today's prices I've been able to update the tracking list.

junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11 after one week of trying to time the market.
On Feb 22 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $1,866.26 after two weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 01 the closing price was $70.28, meaning that he had cost himself $2,402.03 after three weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 08 the closing price was $68.62, meaning that he had cost himself $919.73 after four weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 15 the closing price was $70.56, meaning that he had cost himself $2,652.05 after five weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 22 the closing price was $69.49, meaning that he had cost himself $1,696.60 after six weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,030.21.
On Mar 29 the closing price was $70.43, meaning that he had cost himself $2,535.97 after seven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,869.58.
On Apr 05 the closing price was $71.94, meaning that he had cost himself $3,884.32 after eight weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,217.94.
On Apr 12 the closing price was $72.35, meaning that he had cost himself $4,250.43 after nine weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,584.04.
On Apr 19 the closing price was $72.16, meaning that he had cost himself $4,080.77 after ten weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4412.38.
On Apr 26 the closing price was $73.09, meaning that he had cost himself $4,911.21 after eleven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $5,244.82.

The market would need to drop 8.7% from here for junioroldtimer to have the chance to make money off of his decision to go all cash back on page one of this thread.

Friends don't let friends time the market.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: solon on April 26, 2019, 09:30:13 PM
Keep sharing this great link whenever I can from legendary investor Burton Malkiel (who wrote the bestseller "A random walk down Wall St.")

https://youtu.be/NqKXv5Dkbw4

I feel like this should be underscored. For those of you who haven't watched this yet, this is Burton Malkiel explaining what he thinks of timing the market. Very strong, very emphatic, very good to watch over and over.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: markbike528CBX on April 26, 2019, 10:06:04 PM
Keep sharing this great link whenever I can from legendary investor Burton Malkiel (who wrote the bestseller "A random walk down Wall St.")

https://youtu.be/NqKXv5Dkbw4

I feel like this should be underscored. For those of you who haven't watched this yet, this is Burton Malkiel explaining what he thinks of timing the market. Very strong, very emphatic, very good to watch over and over.

But But..via random Youtube playlist...  Alessio  Rastani  says other wise in 2015 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GBGeeKVcE1Y
All you have to do is h ave a 21 monthly average and interest rate trend and some "flexibility"  and you can " How to time the market"
and  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MX0IV1qNt4w  "Your Savings are about to Evaporate"  - 2012? -15.....
/snark
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: cl_noll on May 13, 2019, 07:50:22 PM
Markets were closed last Friday, but using last Thursday's prices and then today's prices I've been able to update the tracking list.

junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11 after one week of trying to time the market.
On Feb 22 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $1,866.26 after two weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 01 the closing price was $70.28, meaning that he had cost himself $2,402.03 after three weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 08 the closing price was $68.62, meaning that he had cost himself $919.73 after four weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 15 the closing price was $70.56, meaning that he had cost himself $2,652.05 after five weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 22 the closing price was $69.49, meaning that he had cost himself $1,696.60 after six weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,030.21.
On Mar 29 the closing price was $70.43, meaning that he had cost himself $2,535.97 after seven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,869.58.
On Apr 05 the closing price was $71.94, meaning that he had cost himself $3,884.32 after eight weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,217.94.
On Apr 12 the closing price was $72.35, meaning that he had cost himself $4,250.43 after nine weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,584.04.
On Apr 19 the closing price was $72.16, meaning that he had cost himself $4,080.77 after ten weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4412.38.
On Apr 26 the closing price was $73.09, meaning that he had cost himself $4,911.21 after eleven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $5,244.82.

The market would need to drop 8.7% from here for junioroldtimer to have the chance to make money off of his decision to go all cash back on page one of this thread.

Friends don't let friends time the market.

It's getting closer to the break even point for Junior Old Timer! Not to steal Sol's thunder but...

On May 13 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $2,134.14 after eleven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,467.65

The market would need to drop 3.5% from here for junioroldtimer to have the chance to make money off of his decision to go all cash back on page one of this thread.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: HBFIRE on May 13, 2019, 08:49:17 PM

It's getting closer to the break even point for Junior Old Timer! Not to steal Sol's thunder but...

On May 13 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $2,134.14 after eleven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,467.65

The market would need to drop 3.5% from here for junioroldtimer to have the chance to make money off of his decision to go all cash back on page one of this thread.

IF he were a real pro he would have sold a week ago.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: PDXTabs on May 13, 2019, 09:14:34 PM
plus $333.61 in dividends not paid

What makes you think that his money is currently earning 0.00%? I think you should ignore the dividends because he almost certainly isn't getting 0.00% on his cash. VMFXX (https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/VMFXX) is yielding ~2.4% right now.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: sol on May 13, 2019, 10:05:37 PM
What makes you think that

"What makes me think that" is his post in this thread in which he said he was converting it to cash.

You can argue with him, if you like, but I took him at his word.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: PDXTabs on May 13, 2019, 11:06:12 PM
"What makes me think that" is his post in this thread in which he said he was converting it to cash.

He never said that he pulled his money out and put it under his mattress. FDIC Ally savings accounts are yielding 2.2% right now. I'm pretty sure that in the vernacular of the peasantry that is still "cash."
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: sol on May 13, 2019, 11:49:49 PM
"What makes me think that" is his post in this thread in which he said he was converting it to cash.

He never said that he pulled his money out and put it under his mattress. FDIC Ally savings accounts are yielding 2.2% right now. I'm pretty sure that in the vernacular of the peasantry that is still "cash."

Hey, I would love for junioroldtimer to come back and enlighten us as to where he's holding his cash.  I'm guessing it's not at Ally bank, but until he chimes in I guess we'll never know.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Full_Beard on May 14, 2019, 12:27:41 PM
I suspect the tone of this thread deters him from coming back.

I'm not an advocate of trying to time the market, and I don't think there are pro's who should have done it last week. Undoubtedly, there are some pro's/gamblers who did. The jury is still out on the wiseness of that move.

That said, if one is having difficulty sitting idle given the current economic or political indicators, or both, I would treat "market timing" like selling a stock short and select boundaries on your gain/loss from the start (e.g., I get back in if there's a 10% drop or a 15% gain, or the Schiller PE ratio drops to 25, etc. -- whatever numbers reflect your willingness to accept loss and reasonable expectation of gain). Maybe that's what the OP did. I can't say.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: waltworks on May 14, 2019, 12:55:39 PM
Hilariously, I sold $100k or so of stock last week to pay off my mortgage. Market timing FTW!

Of course, in 30 years, come ask me how that worked out...

-W
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: the_fixer on May 14, 2019, 09:51:11 PM
$69.98 5/13/2019


Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: ChpBstrd on May 15, 2019, 07:42:05 AM
I suspect the tone of this thread deters him from coming back.

I'm not an advocate of trying to time the market, and I don't think there are pro's who should have done it last week. Undoubtedly, there are some pro's/gamblers who did. The jury is still out on the wiseness of that move.

That said, if one is having difficulty sitting idle given the current economic or political indicators, or both, I would treat "market timing" like selling a stock short and select boundaries on your gain/loss from the start (e.g., I get back in if there's a 10% drop or a 15% gain, or the Schiller PE ratio drops to 25, etc. -- whatever numbers reflect your willingness to accept loss and reasonable expectation of gain). Maybe that's what the OP did. I can't say.

To some lessor extent, internet mockery is a bet on market timing too. The majority of the time, the market goes up, so it is a safe bet to criticize someone who is going short or neutral. You will be right the majority of the time. However, just like holding a long position opens you up to the risk of the occasional bear market, criticizing those predicting a bear market opens you up to the risk of them being right and you being wrong at some particular time. The majority of us have watched buy-and-hold work wonders for our entire lives, but the tail risk is out there and we've never experienced it. We have experienced the consistent validation of being right, over and over again, about preaching time in the market, but this is not some infallible natural law. it only worked 90+% of the time. If the future of the U.S. resembles Turkey, Venezuela, or Argentina, the rules may change. Consider how many regulations put in place after the Great Depression to protect against an over-leveraged financial sector have been removed in the last 20 years.

There are bullish options trades you can take right now with a 10% probability of a very large payoff and a 90% probability of total loss. That doesn't mean it's a mark of knowledgeability to mock the long shot bet.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: sol on May 15, 2019, 08:17:49 AM
To some lessor extent, internet mockery is a bet on market timing too.

I think we've mostly avoided the mockery.  It just looks like mockery because it has turned out to be a losing bet thus far.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: waltworks on May 15, 2019, 08:28:51 AM
Well *some* of us are old enough to have experienced a couple of major crashes...

Sheesh, I feel like a geezer, but I do remember the 1990s and 2000s. My pitifully small retirement money (generated entirely by an automatic contribution situation from a DOE grad student job I had) cratered a couple of times in the intervening 20 years. Yet somehow I kept putting money in and now I'm a rich guy.

I honestly hope JuniorOldTimer does great. I really do. And I actually suspect he might (though not for the reasons he pulled the money in the first place). But the underlying mindset of folks who do this is basically never going to lead to long term success.

-W
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Tyson on May 15, 2019, 08:37:55 AM
Any time I think I'm smart enough to time the market, I find the graph below very helpful.  If following my own logic/insight, I would have sold during a LOT of world events that seemed like they would tank the market, but in fact had no effect at all:

(https://concentuswealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/market-history.png)
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: EvenSteven on May 15, 2019, 09:09:15 AM
Any time I think I'm smart enough to time the market, I find the graph below very helpful.  If following my own logic/insight, I would have sold during a LOT of world events that seemed like they would tank the market, but in fact had no effect at all:

(https://concentuswealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/market-history.png)

That's a nice graph for the most part, but I don't think Dennis Miller leaving the cast in 1990 was all that bad, and certainly not a crisis. But even if it was a crisis, I don't see how a late night sketch comedy show would affect the stock market all that much.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Tyson on May 15, 2019, 09:16:44 AM
Any time I think I'm smart enough to time the market, I find the graph below very helpful.  If following my own logic/insight, I would have sold during a LOT of world events that seemed like they would tank the market, but in fact had no effect at all:



That's a nice graph for the most part, but I don't think Dennis Miller leaving the cast in 1990 was all that bad, and certainly not a crisis. But even if it was a crisis, I don't see how a late night sketch comedy show would affect the stock market all that much.

Right, the point is there's no correlation.  Like who would have predicted that a recession would co-exist with strong market performance (but there it is in 1959 and 1991) or that rising interest rates would also co-exist with strong market performance (but there it is in 1966-1970 and 1994), or that the Korean and Iraqi wars had zero affect on the market.  Or that Y2K would correlate with a massive dip.  It's all just random. 

The sooner people realize there's no way to correlate current events with market performance, the sooner they will stop making mistakes like the one made at the start of this thread.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: talltexan on May 15, 2019, 09:46:26 AM
I love these threads.  They are fun.  Although they are usually more fun when the timer is overconfident and strutting around -- love when those types slip on the banana peel.  The OP in this thread seems like a nice guy so it's not quite as enjoyable (maybe it's because he used the word, "Welp"? )

 At some point, I'm sure I'll try to time it again, and the next time I do, I'll try to remember to start a thread.  I'll take my turn on the banana peel... :)

Note: the banana peel could surprise those of use who've been Bulls on this thread so far. Indeed, that would be an amazing irony!
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Psychstache on May 15, 2019, 10:14:14 AM
Any time I think I'm smart enough to time the market, I find the graph below very helpful.  If following my own logic/insight, I would have sold during a LOT of world events that seemed like they would tank the market, but in fact had no effect at all:

(https://concentuswealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/market-history.png)

That's a nice graph for the most part, but I don't think Dennis Miller leaving the cast in 1990 was all that bad, and certainly not a crisis. But even if it was a crisis, I don't see how a late night sketch comedy show would affect the stock market all that much.

Obviously as the additions of Chris Farley and David Spade panned out, the market called it a wash.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Psychstache on May 15, 2019, 10:18:17 AM
BUT: I also believe some of the flak comes from Mustachians working out their own angst at staying the course in the market.  It is painful to stay the course sometimes, isn't it?  Even when, historically and mathematically, you believe you're doing the right thing.

Is it? I'm not trying to be snarky, I just want to understand this mindframe. I feel no angst about my choice. I did the research, which did cause some angst as I grew and learned, but since then I have felt no reservations about my decision. Do you think it is something that is unique to money allocation or more a component of an overall personal mindset?

I think of it just like I do any other product research. Did I spent countless hours looking at couches, sitting on them in showrooms, measuring and remeasuring my space when I was trying to find the right furniture for my living room? Yeah. Did I immediately forget all of that knowledge and never think about couches again as soon as I bought it? Yes.

Edit: spelling and grammar are hard.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Tyson on May 15, 2019, 11:59:53 AM
BUT: I also believe some of the flak comes from Mustachians working out their own angst at staying the course in the market.  It is painful to stay the course sometimes, isn't it?  Even when, historically and mathematically, you believe you're doing the right thing.

Is it? I'm not trying to be snarky, I just want to understand this mindframe. I feel no angst about my choice. I did the research, which did cause some angst as I grew and learned, but since then I have felt no reservations about my decision. Do you think it is something that is unique to money allocation or more a component of an overall personal mindset?

I think of it just like I do any other product research. Did I spent countless hours looking at couches, sitting on them in showrooms, measuring and remeasuring my space when I was trying to find the right furniture for my living room? Yeah. Did I immediately forget all of it knowlegde and never think about couches again as soon as I bought it? Yes.

In terms of the angst and the flak... Certainly I was projecting based on my own personal experience, but it wouldn't surprise me to find out that the way I've been thinking about things is not common and not optimal.  I know I feel the need to dance in and out of the market -- even when I know I shouldn't -- but maybe I'm the only one.

I like your approach a lot better.

Why do you feel the need to dance in and out of the market?  No snark, I'm genuinely curious.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Maenad on May 15, 2019, 03:02:24 PM
BUT: I also believe some of the flak comes from Mustachians working out their own angst at staying the course in the market.  It is painful to stay the course sometimes, isn't it?  Even when, historically and mathematically, you believe you're doing the right thing.

Is it? I'm not trying to be snarky, I just want to understand this mindframe. I feel no angst about my choice. I did the research, which did cause some angst as I grew and learned, but since then I have felt no reservations about my decision. Do you think it is something that is unique to money allocation or more a component of an overall personal mindset?

It can be, depending on mindset and circumstances. I'm thisclose to FI, and the recent market dip due to tariff angst has at least doubled the time left to FI for me. It felt like someone jerked away a beautiful dream just as I was about to reach out and touch it.

Logically, I know that a few months is nothing in the long run, but damn if I didn't feel like Charlie Brown and that football. So sometimes there can be angst - what if he's right? I mean, eventually one of the Big Scary Bear Market predictions will be right, but if it's now, the timing is absolutely horrible for me in the short term. And this is after being invested through the dot-com crash and the great recession - I think I wasn't as worried then because I had years to go yet.

My actions are driven by logic, so I'm investing for the long term and sticking to my AA, but logic isn't too good at dealing with the emotions. For that I spend time outdoors and time with friends and family. And my cats, cuz pets are awesome and make everything better.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Full_Beard on May 15, 2019, 03:20:15 PM
buy-and-hold . . . . it only worked 90+% of the time.
I know you don't mean that literally, but I'll repost a link to this article which explains that there have been 20-year periods of negative growth and there's a fair amount of pure luck -- when you happened to get in and when you reach the age to begin withdrawing:

http://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/01/02/business/20110102-metrics-graphic.html

And for some disclosure -- I am a buy-and-hold investor, 75% in SP500 and 25% in stocks. The economic and political indicators have me nervous,  so I totally get why one would park it on the sideline and wait for change among those indicators to occur. But, I wouldn't go back and forth to jump on days when it drops, etc. I would pick a target savings and a target loss and just suck it up.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: waltworks on May 15, 2019, 07:21:10 PM
buy-and-hold . . . . it only worked 90+% of the time.
I know you don't mean that literally, but I'll repost a link to this article which explains that there have been 20-year periods of negative growth and there's a fair amount of pure luck -- when you happened to get in and when you reach the age to begin withdrawing:

http://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/01/02/business/20110102-metrics-graphic.html

And for some disclosure -- I am a buy-and-hold investor, 75% in SP500 and 25% in stocks. The economic and political indicators have me nervous,  so I totally get why one would park it on the sideline and wait for change among those indicators to occur. But, I wouldn't go back and forth to jump on days when it drops, etc. I would pick a target savings and a target loss and just suck it up.

That's a great article, but it can be misleading since it assumes a lump sum going in, then a lump sum coming back out.

The lump sum in might for some people be a realistic scenario (inheritance) but the bulk withdrawal is something basically nobody would do.

If you're putting money in starting in any of those years, and continue putting it in for 20 years, you'll have done just fine. OP has very little money right now, so he's in a great spot to just plug it in every month.

-W
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Telecaster on May 16, 2019, 11:57:39 PM
It can be, depending on mindset and circumstances. I'm thisclose to FI, and the recent market dip due to tariff angst has at least doubled the time left to FI for me. It felt like someone jerked away a beautiful dream just as I was about to reach out and touch it.

Doubled?  Were you a month away and now you are two months away? 
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Full_Beard on May 28, 2019, 11:12:14 PM
buy-and-hold . . . . it only worked 90+% of the time.
I know you don't mean that literally, but I'll repost a link to this article which explains that there have been 20-year periods of negative growth and there's a fair amount of pure luck -- when you happened to get in and when you reach the age to begin withdrawing:

http://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/01/02/business/20110102-metrics-graphic.html

And for some disclosure -- I am a buy-and-hold investor, 75% in SP500 and 25% in stocks. The economic and political indicators have me nervous,  so I totally get why one would park it on the sideline and wait for change among those indicators to occur. But, I wouldn't go back and forth to jump on days when it drops, etc. I would pick a target savings and a target loss and just suck it up.

That's a great article, but it can be misleading since it assumes a lump sum going in, then a lump sum coming back out.

The lump sum in might for some people be a realistic scenario (inheritance) but the bulk withdrawal is something basically nobody would do.

If you're putting money in starting in any of those years, and continue putting it in for 20 years, you'll have done just fine. OP has very little money right now, so he's in a great spot to just plug it in every month.

-W

Very valid point. I'll quibble with "misleading" as I think the article is clear that its focus is a single investment.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: JAYSLOL on May 30, 2019, 07:30:24 AM
buy-and-hold . . . . it only worked 90+% of the time.
I know you don't mean that literally, but I'll repost a link to this article which explains that there have been 20-year periods of negative growth and there's a fair amount of pure luck -- when you happened to get in and when you reach the age to begin withdrawing:

http://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/01/02/business/20110102-metrics-graphic.html

And for some disclosure -- I am a buy-and-hold investor, 75% in SP500 and 25% in stocks. The economic and political indicators have me nervous,  so I totally get why one would park it on the sideline and wait for change among those indicators to occur. But, I wouldn't go back and forth to jump on days when it drops, etc. I would pick a target savings and a target loss and just suck it up.

That's a great article, but it can be misleading since it assumes a lump sum going in, then a lump sum coming back out.

The lump sum in might for some people be a realistic scenario (inheritance) but the bulk withdrawal is something basically nobody would do.

If you're putting money in starting in any of those years, and continue putting it in for 20 years, you'll have done just fine. OP has very little money right now, so he's in a great spot to just plug it in every month.

-W

Very valid point. I'll quibble with "misleading" as I think the article is clear that its focus is a single investment.

I'll actually second that it's misleading.  Perhaps not intentionally, but by saying "It's when you start and when you finish" implies that's the only way to invest, as in you need to be able to buy and sell at exactly the right time for your investment to work out, otherwise don't bother.  Thats just not the case with a typical saver/investor and it's a misleading way to look at it for the vast majority of people that work for 20-40 year and then draw down slowly in retirement.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: talltexan on May 30, 2019, 07:50:20 AM
Now that stocks are dropping again, should some of us who were castigating the OP starting eating a bit of crow?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: sol on May 30, 2019, 08:14:55 AM
Now that stocks are dropping again, should some of us who were castigating the OP starting eating a bit of crow?

Well, let's do a quick check in. 

junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On May 29 the closing price was $69.28, meaning that he had cost himself $1,509.08 after ~3.5 months of trying to time the market, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $1,842.69

That's better than the ~$5k he was out when markets were higher, but there still hasn't been a single day when he could have bought back in for a profit since he decided to go all cash.  He literally sold at the market's lowest point for the window of Feb 7 to May 29.  ANY other day in that window would have lost him less money.

So no, it doesn't look like we're quite at the "eating crow" stage just yet.  Personally I'm still hoping for a short dip below $67.59 so that junioroldtimer can rationalize getting back into stocks.  Maybe one week?  That should give him enough time to notice and then get around to making a transaction.

Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Maenad on May 30, 2019, 08:26:06 AM
It can be, depending on mindset and circumstances. I'm thisclose to FI, and the recent market dip due to tariff angst has at least doubled the time left to FI for me. It felt like someone jerked away a beautiful dream just as I was about to reach out and touch it.

Doubled?  Were you a month away and now you are two months away?

2 months to 4. At the beginning of May it looked like we may hit FI end of June. We do our month-end summary on Saturday, and I think I'm going to be grumpy. I'm trying to keep it in perspective - if there's a recession and bear market due to a trade war, a lot of people will be in much worse situations than I would. I've still made a LOT of money over the last decade.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Davnasty on May 30, 2019, 08:43:56 AM
Now that stocks are dropping again, should some of us who were castigating the OP starting eating a bit of crow?

I don't think so. Even if OP comes out ahead with this decision, I would stand by my opinion that it was the wrong decision at the time it was made.

If someone places a bet on black, they're making a statistically poor choice. If you told them so and explained your reasoning to them but then they won, does this mean you were wrong? A 47.4% chance of something happening isn't exactly a long shot but losing is the more likely outcome. That's all that matters to me.

Not to mention the reasoning behind the expected drop in the markets has not played out as predicted.

I think the sitting president is going to be impeached and there's going to be a knock-down, drag-out fight in which the markets temporarily plummet as all this Russia stuff comes to light.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Tyson on May 30, 2019, 08:59:25 AM
The worse thing that can happen when someone tries to time the market is that they get lucky the first time or 2.  Because it plants the idea that they are somehow right or special and can just keep on timing the market in the future.  So they will start to lose money before too long but will NOT change their behavior and stop trying to time the market.  Rather, they will take bigger and bigger risks to "make back" their money.  It's classic gambling mentality and we as a species are VERY prone to this sort of selective bias. 

Hell, the entire gambling industry is built on this specific blindspot that humans have.  And Vegas seems to be doing pretty well :P
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: ChpBstrd on May 30, 2019, 09:01:15 AM
It can be, depending on mindset and circumstances. I'm thisclose to FI, and the recent market dip due to tariff angst has at least doubled the time left to FI for me. It felt like someone jerked away a beautiful dream just as I was about to reach out and touch it.

Doubled?  Were you a month away and now you are two months away?
í

2 months to 4. At the beginning of May it looked like we may hit FI end of June. We do our month-end summary on Saturday, and I think I'm going to be grumpy. I'm trying to keep it in perspective - if there's a recession and bear market due to a trade war, a lot of people will be in much worse situations than I would. I've still made a LOT of money over the last decade.

This is exactly why I donít think we should call ourselves FIRE based on daily/monthly account balance changes. Is someone really FI on Monday because stocks went up 1% and then back to being work dependent on Tuesday when the market gives up those gains? One could spend years with oneís portfolio value going up and down around their FIRE number, all while owning the same assets!

Look at the cash flows from your investments, including hard-to-calculate index funds, to see if your expenses are covered. At a market peak, e.g. 2000, you will have lots of market value but little cash flow, and that is your warning not to retire yet. At a market low point, e.g. 2009, you might own assets with a history of earning all you need, but not qualify for retirement per the 4% rule because prices are depressed. Your FIRE number should this be stated in terms of number of shares.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: sol on May 30, 2019, 11:01:28 PM
Look at the cash flows from your investments, including hard-to-calculate index funds, to see if your expenses are covered. At a market peak, e.g. 2000, you will have lots of market value but little cash flow, and that is your warning not to retire yet. At a market low point, e.g. 2009, you might own assets with a history of earning all you need, but not qualify for retirement per the 4% rule because prices are depressed. Your FIRE number should this be stated in terms of number of shares.

Except that the 4% rule assumes you sell of some of those shares each year.  You don't need cash flows to cover your living expenses, you need share prices to be high enough that you can liquidate enough shares each year to cover your living expenses.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Full_Beard on May 31, 2019, 05:56:45 PM
I think most of us subscribe to buy and hold, so I don't think anyone needs to eat crow if/when others successfully time the market. At one point, I did think the tone of the thread veered towards mockery and I don't think that's necessary or productive, but I confess that I haven't reread it and I recognize that there's no good way to reliably read the tone of anyone's comment here. So perhaps I'm wrong.

The market will dive. It is cyclical and, given the record highs, economic indicators, trade war, etc., it very well may happen this year. You can weather it and anticipate that it will recover in time, you can risk trying to time it, or you can follow some other strategy in between. Who comes out on top 1, 2, 3, or 4 years from now is anybody's guess. Ten to 20 years from now, it's a fairly safe bet that the buy-and-hold and dollar-cost averaging crowd will be more than fine. I've been doing that for 20 years and have saved $1.2M on a non-profit (10 years) and government salary (10 years).

ETA: VTSAX closed at $68.52. It's getting very close to our case study's break even point. Next week will bring new news, new dips and jumps, and new guesses.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Full_Beard on May 31, 2019, 06:09:22 PM
buy-and-hold . . . . it only worked 90+% of the time.
I know you don't mean that literally, but I'll repost a link to this article which explains that there have been 20-year periods of negative growth and there's a fair amount of pure luck -- when you happened to get in and when you reach the age to begin withdrawing:

http://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/01/02/business/20110102-metrics-graphic.html

And for some disclosure -- I am a buy-and-hold investor, 75% in SP500 and 25% in stocks. The economic and political indicators have me nervous,  so I totally get why one would park it on the sideline and wait for change among those indicators to occur. But, I wouldn't go back and forth to jump on days when it drops, etc. I would pick a target savings and a target loss and just suck it up.

That's a great article, but it can be misleading since it assumes a lump sum going in, then a lump sum coming back out.

The lump sum in might for some people be a realistic scenario (inheritance) but the bulk withdrawal is something basically nobody would do.

If you're putting money in starting in any of those years, and continue putting it in for 20 years, you'll have done just fine. OP has very little money right now, so he's in a great spot to just plug it in every month.

-W

Very valid point. I'll quibble with "misleading" as I think the article is clear that its focus is a single investment.

I'll actually second that it's misleading.  Perhaps not intentionally, but by saying "It's when you start and when you finish" implies that's the only way to invest, as in you need to be able to buy and sell at exactly the right time for your investment to work out, otherwise don't bother.  Thats just not the case with a typical saver/investor and it's a misleading way to look at it for the vast majority of people that work for 20-40 year and then draw down slowly in retirement.

Well, I don't mind some dispassionate, quibbling over articles. So, chart that Easterling created "shows annualized returns based on thousands of possible combinations of market entry and exit." The chart itself depicts annualized returns; the NY Times used a point in time reference for emphasis.

How often do you read, $100 invested on X date would be worth $80K today. The Times simply used that common phrase to show how Easterling's chart reveals how such statements are close to worthless. The date you pick matters. But, the chart isn't meant to discourage dollar cost averaging or any particular investment strategy.

So, again, I don't think it's misleading. I think what you're saying is that it doesn't provide the entire view, and for a one page article with a chart, I would say, "You're right; that wasn't its goal."
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: JTColton on May 31, 2019, 11:41:47 PM
I'll continue to market time, every 1st and 15th.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Vicster on June 01, 2019, 05:16:40 AM
I've been wondering about the markets.....the S&P has been going up for 10 years or so and apparently things never tend to go up for that long....there tends to be a depression of some sort every ten years or so....I'm in the UK and with Brexit in Oct....I'm unsure as to whether to wait to buy some investments in the next year or so, or just invest now accepting that it'll go down, but over 10 years come back up.

Hmm, tricky.....

There is a chinese proverb about the best time for investing was 20 years ago, the second best time is now.....I just think markets all might go down in next year or so.....

Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: BigMoneyJim on June 01, 2019, 08:33:04 AM
I just think markets all might go down in next year or so.....

Yeah, I've been thinking that for several years. Good thing I didn't try to market time then.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: FIREstache on June 01, 2019, 10:39:31 AM
I've been wondering about the markets.....the S&P has been going up for 10 years or so and apparently things never tend to go up for that long....there tends to be a depression of some sort every ten years or so....

The S&P 500 price index was down over 6% in 2018, about 8% factoring in inflation.  Then take about 2 points off that figure if you factor in dividend reinvestment.  Anyway you slice it, it wasn't up for the year last year.  At one point, it was down about 20% from the high.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Travis on June 01, 2019, 10:47:21 AM
I just think markets all might go down in next year or so.....

Yeah, I've been thinking that for several years. Good thing I didn't try to market time then.

It's possible to have a market drop without a recession.  Shocking I know. Precisely this happened six months ago and some folks must have slept through it.  It might be happening again as we speak.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: JAYSLOL on June 01, 2019, 01:11:06 PM
buy-and-hold . . . . it only worked 90+% of the time.
I know you don't mean that literally, but I'll repost a link to this article which explains that there have been 20-year periods of negative growth and there's a fair amount of pure luck -- when you happened to get in and when you reach the age to begin withdrawing:

http://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/01/02/business/20110102-metrics-graphic.html

And for some disclosure -- I am a buy-and-hold investor, 75% in SP500 and 25% in stocks. The economic and political indicators have me nervous,  so I totally get why one would park it on the sideline and wait for change among those indicators to occur. But, I wouldn't go back and forth to jump on days when it drops, etc. I would pick a target savings and a target loss and just suck it up.

That's a great article, but it can be misleading since it assumes a lump sum going in, then a lump sum coming back out.

The lump sum in might for some people be a realistic scenario (inheritance) but the bulk withdrawal is something basically nobody would do.

If you're putting money in starting in any of those years, and continue putting it in for 20 years, you'll have done just fine. OP has very little money right now, so he's in a great spot to just plug it in every month.

-W

Very valid point. I'll quibble with "misleading" as I think the article is clear that its focus is a single investment.

I'll actually second that it's misleading.  Perhaps not intentionally, but by saying "It's when you start and when you finish" implies that's the only way to invest, as in you need to be able to buy and sell at exactly the right time for your investment to work out, otherwise don't bother.  Thats just not the case with a typical saver/investor and it's a misleading way to look at it for the vast majority of people that work for 20-40 year and then draw down slowly in retirement.

Well, I don't mind some dispassionate, quibbling over articles. So, chart that Easterling created "shows annualized returns based on thousands of possible combinations of market entry and exit." The chart itself depicts annualized returns; the NY Times used a point in time reference for emphasis.

How often do you read, $100 invested on X date would be worth $80K today. The Times simply used that common phrase to show how Easterling's chart reveals how such statements are close to worthless. The date you pick matters. But, the chart isn't meant to discourage dollar cost averaging or any particular investment strategy.

So, again, I don't think it's misleading. I think what you're saying is that it doesn't provide the entire view, and for a one page article with a chart, I would say, "You're right; that wasn't its goal."

Yes, that's actually an excellent way of putting it. 
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: theolympians on June 02, 2019, 12:36:45 PM
I've been wondering about the markets.....the S&P has been going up for 10 years or so and apparently things never tend to go up for that long....there tends to be a depression of some sort every ten years or so....I'm in the UK and with Brexit in Oct....I'm unsure as to whether to wait to buy some investments in the next year or so, or just invest now accepting that it'll go down, but over 10 years come back up.

Hmm, tricky.....

There is a chinese proverb about the best time for investing was 20 years ago, the second best time is now.....I just think markets all might go down in next year or so.....

I have been only been casually following the brexit stuff. Am I reading this right: you are assuming markets in Britannia will tank if brexit happens? Why would this be the case? It might be bumpy, but over the long term the UK will likely benefit. Look at the U.S. When we broke away from an over-bearing, uncaring gov't our economy took off. The same could be for you. In this case it would be bloodless.

On another note, buy now!
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: bacchi on June 02, 2019, 01:02:09 PM
I have been only been casually following the brexit stuff. Am I reading this right: you are assuming markets in Britannia will tank if brexit happens? Why would this be the case?

Company relocations.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: GuitarStv on June 03, 2019, 07:54:55 AM
I've been wondering about the markets.....the S&P has been going up for 10 years or so and apparently things never tend to go up for that long....there tends to be a depression of some sort every ten years or so....I'm in the UK and with Brexit in Oct....I'm unsure as to whether to wait to buy some investments in the next year or so, or just invest now accepting that it'll go down, but over 10 years come back up.

Hmm, tricky.....

There is a chinese proverb about the best time for investing was 20 years ago, the second best time is now.....I just think markets all might go down in next year or so.....

I have been only been casually following the brexit stuff. Am I reading this right: you are assuming markets in Britannia will tank if brexit happens? Why would this be the case? It might be bumpy, but over the long term the UK will likely benefit. Look at the U.S. When we broke away from an over-bearing, uncaring gov't our economy took off. The same could be for you. In this case it would be bloodless.

On another note, buy now!

I'm not sure that comparing the United States colonial uprising 200 plus years ago against the British to the UK leaving the EU today makes any sort of sense.  The situations are not comparable just about any way you look at them.

There's an awful lot of information saying that Brexit is a bad idea long term for the UK.  Don't take my word for it, check out the UK government's own reports (https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/the-governments-own-brexit-analysis-says-the-uk-will-be (https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/the-governments-own-brexit-analysis-says-the-uk-will-be)).  Or check out what economists are overwhelmingly saying (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/28/economists-reject-brexit-boost-cameron (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/28/economists-reject-brexit-boost-cameron), https://piie.com/publications/working-papers/brexit-everyone-loses-britain-loses-most (https://piie.com/publications/working-papers/brexit-everyone-loses-britain-loses-most), etc).  The economic evidence appears to be heavily against Brexit.

Can you provide the sources you're using that say otherwise?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: waltworks on June 03, 2019, 08:17:38 AM
I'm agnostic about the implications of Brexit, but comparing it to the Revolutionary war is hilarious. There are literally no useful parallels between those situations other than a disagreement about sovereignty.

If Britain were suddenly connected (Atlantis!) to an entire relatively unpopulated continent filled with tons of natural resources, then maybe we could start making the comparison. Then again they'd need/want a ton of immigration in that scenario...

-W
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: never give up on June 03, 2019, 10:34:11 AM
Yep as someone from the UK the whole Brexit shenanigans is very concerning. Ludicrous as it sounds I wish there was some website that existed that provided a solution to escaping the world of work early. That would be really handy right now.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: theolympians on June 03, 2019, 12:06:22 PM
I've been wondering about the markets.....the S&P has been going up for 10 years or so and apparently things never tend to go up for that long....there tends to be a depression of some sort every ten years or so....I'm in the UK and with Brexit in Oct....I'm unsure as to whether to wait to buy some investments in the next year or so, or just invest now accepting that it'll go down, but over 10 years come back up.

Hmm, tricky.....

There is a chinese proverb about the best time for investing was 20 years ago, the second best time is now.....I just think markets all might go down in next year or so.....

I have been only been casually following the brexit stuff. Am I reading this right: you are assuming markets in Britannia will tank if brexit happens? Why would this be the case? It might be bumpy, but over the long term the UK will likely benefit. Look at the U.S. When we broke away from an over-bearing, uncaring gov't our economy took off. The same could be for you. In this case it would be bloodless.

On another note, buy now!

I'm not sure that comparing the United States colonial uprising 200 plus years ago against the British to the UK leaving the EU today makes any sort of sense.  The situations are not comparable just about any way you look at them.

There's an awful lot of information saying that Brexit is a bad idea long term for the UK.  Don't take my word for it, check out the UK government's own reports (https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/the-governments-own-brexit-analysis-says-the-uk-will-be (https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/the-governments-own-brexit-analysis-says-the-uk-will-be)).  Or check out what economists are overwhelmingly saying (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/28/economists-reject-brexit-boost-cameron (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/28/economists-reject-brexit-boost-cameron), https://piie.com/publications/working-papers/brexit-everyone-loses-britain-loses-most (https://piie.com/publications/working-papers/brexit-everyone-loses-britain-loses-most), etc).  The economic evidence appears to be heavily against Brexit.

Can you provide the sources you're using that say otherwise?

I was being tongue and cheek reference the American Revolution. That said, I find it odd that the British would consent to a continental governing body. I get the borderless argument, free trade etc. However, the Brits existed long before the EU and were able to negotiate their own trade deals. There was a time when the sun never set on the British Empire, when they were able to decide their own destiny. They are are long way from that. Now they are bound by edicts from Brussels.

Sure, it might be economically rough for a period. Then again, do you want your own country? Why should "you" allow an outside governing body dictate national and internal policy? Why should Croatia, Sweden, and the other 25 countries have control over your country?

Tongue in cheek again: Sure I can live with my parents for the rest of my life. They ensure the lights stay on, the fridge is stocked, and my clothes are washed. I just have to deal with curfews, them telling me how to dress, who can come over, and what to do with my money. Or I can leave home, be poor for a bit, but find a life and build.

Anyhoo, that is my two cents. I realize we are way off topic, and will refrain from drifting further!

Buy now, don't worry about Brexit. If Brexit happens and the economy tanks, buy more. Don't time the market. It will take years for the political stuff to iron itself out.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: solon on June 03, 2019, 12:48:49 PM
The Wall Street Journal literally just ran an article comparing Theresa May to John Adams, and what May's exit could have learned from Adams' exit.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/theresa-may-should-have-listened-to-john-adams-11559361665
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: waltworks on June 03, 2019, 12:53:50 PM
The Wall Street Journal literally just ran an article comparing Theresa May to John Adams, and what May's exit could have learned from Adams' exit.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/theresa-may-should-have-listened-to-john-adams-11559361665

That's an article about internal political wrangling/vote-whipping, not about the economic consequences, though, right? I can only read the first few paragraphs, rest is paywalled. But that's what it sounds like.

-W
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: GuitarStv on June 03, 2019, 06:21:42 PM
I've been wondering about the markets.....the S&P has been going up for 10 years or so and apparently things never tend to go up for that long....there tends to be a depression of some sort every ten years or so....I'm in the UK and with Brexit in Oct....I'm unsure as to whether to wait to buy some investments in the next year or so, or just invest now accepting that it'll go down, but over 10 years come back up.

Hmm, tricky.....

There is a chinese proverb about the best time for investing was 20 years ago, the second best time is now.....I just think markets all might go down in next year or so.....

I have been only been casually following the brexit stuff. Am I reading this right: you are assuming markets in Britannia will tank if brexit happens? Why would this be the case? It might be bumpy, but over the long term the UK will likely benefit. Look at the U.S. When we broke away from an over-bearing, uncaring gov't our economy took off. The same could be for you. In this case it would be bloodless.

On another note, buy now!

I'm not sure that comparing the United States colonial uprising 200 plus years ago against the British to the UK leaving the EU today makes any sort of sense.  The situations are not comparable just about any way you look at them.

There's an awful lot of information saying that Brexit is a bad idea long term for the UK.  Don't take my word for it, check out the UK government's own reports (https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/the-governments-own-brexit-analysis-says-the-uk-will-be (https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/the-governments-own-brexit-analysis-says-the-uk-will-be)).  Or check out what economists are overwhelmingly saying (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/28/economists-reject-brexit-boost-cameron (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/28/economists-reject-brexit-boost-cameron), https://piie.com/publications/working-papers/brexit-everyone-loses-britain-loses-most (https://piie.com/publications/working-papers/brexit-everyone-loses-britain-loses-most), etc).  The economic evidence appears to be heavily against Brexit.

Can you provide the sources you're using that say otherwise?

I was being tongue and cheek reference the American Revolution. That said, I find it odd that the British would consent to a continental governing body. I get the borderless argument, free trade etc. However, the Brits existed long before the EU and were able to negotiate their own trade deals. There was a time when the sun never set on the British Empire, when they were able to decide their own destiny. They are are long way from that. Now they are bound by edicts from Brussels.

'Bound by edicts from Brussels' sounds scary . . . what 'edicts' exactly were causing you concern?


Sure, it might be economically rough for a period. Then again, do you want your own country? Why should "you" allow an outside governing body dictate national and internal policy? Why should Croatia, Sweden, and the other 25 countries have control over your country?

Well, it's just that the majority of economists believe that it will be rough immediately . . . and then that will continue to be rough for a very long time to come.  That's why I was asking where your information was coming from.  It conflicts with most of what I've read about the matter from economists.  Including those hired by the British government to study the matter.


Tongue in cheek again: Sure I can live with my parents for the rest of my life. They ensure the lights stay on, the fridge is stocked, and my clothes are washed. I just have to deal with curfews, them telling me how to dress, who can come over, and what to do with my money. Or I can leave home, be poor for a bit, but find a life and build.

This isn't a good analogy.  In their awkward teen years the Brits left home, conquered bits of the world, started a bunch of wars (including conflicts in Afghanistan, Iraq, and all over Africa that still rage to this day), eventually lost those bits of the world when the native populations largely threw off their control.  Then older and maybe a little bit wiser they decided to rent an apartment with some friends (the EU).  Now they seem to be throwing a hissy fit over being occasionally asked to do the dishes  . . . and despite not being able to afford an apartment of their own are telling their roomies to fuck off.

From where I'm sitting this seems like a regression more than progression - unless waving a flag around is more important to you than being successful and paying the bills.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: ChpBstrd on June 03, 2019, 09:28:22 PM
I've been wondering about the markets.....the S&P has been going up for 10 years or so and apparently things never tend to go up for that long....there tends to be a depression of some sort every ten years or so....I'm in the UK and with Brexit in Oct....I'm unsure as to whether to wait to buy some investments in the next year or so, or just invest now accepting that it'll go down, but over 10 years come back up.

Hmm, tricky.....

There is a chinese proverb about the best time for investing was 20 years ago, the second best time is now.....I just think markets all might go down in next year or so.....

I have been only been casually following the brexit stuff. Am I reading this right: you are assuming markets in Britannia will tank if brexit happens? Why would this be the case? It might be bumpy, but over the long term the UK will likely benefit. Look at the U.S. When we broke away from an over-bearing, uncaring gov't our economy took off. The same could be for you. In this case it would be bloodless.

On another note, buy now!

I'm not sure that comparing the United States colonial uprising 200 plus years ago against the British to the UK leaving the EU today makes any sort of sense.  The situations are not comparable just about any way you look at them.

There's an awful lot of information saying that Brexit is a bad idea long term for the UK.  Don't take my word for it, check out the UK government's own reports (https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/the-governments-own-brexit-analysis-says-the-uk-will-be (https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/the-governments-own-brexit-analysis-says-the-uk-will-be)).  Or check out what economists are overwhelmingly saying (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/28/economists-reject-brexit-boost-cameron (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/28/economists-reject-brexit-boost-cameron), https://piie.com/publications/working-papers/brexit-everyone-loses-britain-loses-most (https://piie.com/publications/working-papers/brexit-everyone-loses-britain-loses-most), etc).  The economic evidence appears to be heavily against Brexit.

Can you provide the sources you're using that say otherwise?

I was being tongue and cheek reference the American Revolution. That said, I find it odd that the British would consent to a continental governing body. I get the borderless argument, free trade etc. However, the Brits existed long before the EU and were able to negotiate their own trade deals. There was a time when the sun never set on the British Empire, when they were able to decide their own destiny. They are are long way from that. Now they are bound by edicts from Brussels.

Sure, it might be economically rough for a period. Then again, do you want your own country? Why should "you" allow an outside governing body dictate national and internal policy? Why should Croatia, Sweden, and the other 25 countries have control over your country?

Tongue in cheek again: Sure I can live with my parents for the rest of my life. They ensure the lights stay on, the fridge is stocked, and my clothes are washed. I just have to deal with curfews, them telling me how to dress, who can come over, and what to do with my money. Or I can leave home, be poor for a bit, but find a life and build.

Anyhoo, that is my two cents. I realize we are way off topic, and will refrain from drifting further!

Buy now, don't worry about Brexit. If Brexit happens and the economy tanks, buy more. Don't time the market. It will take years for the political stuff to iron itself out.

Would you also suggest Texas or Alaska leave the U.S. for the same reasons?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Full_Beard on June 03, 2019, 10:02:37 PM
Brexit could use its own thread.

The EU doesn't govern the internal affairs of its member states.

An overwhelming majority of economists predict, nay, are reasonably certain that Britain's exit from the EU will have serious economic consequences and create enormous problems re travel/migration, esp. since Ireland is remaining in the EU.

Surprised the people of the UK voted for it? You have a better view of humanity than I.

(Edited to correct Ireland vs. N. Ireland - shouldn't write too late at night . . .)
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: vand on June 04, 2019, 02:25:06 AM
Any time I think I'm smart enough to time the market, I find the graph below very helpful.  If following my own logic/insight, I would have sold during a LOT of world events that seemed like they would tank the market, but in fact had no effect at all:

(https://concentuswealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/market-history.png)

So actually would been just fine sitting out for some very long periods when the market went nowhere... 1965-1983, 1999-2013


Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: robartsd on June 04, 2019, 08:40:34 AM
Any time I think I'm smart enough to time the market, I find the graph below very helpful.  If following my own logic/insight, I would have sold during a LOT of world events that seemed like they would tank the market, but in fact had no effect at all:

(https://concentuswealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/market-history.png)

So actually would been just fine sitting out for some very long periods when the market went nowhere... 1965-1983, 1999-2013
The chart is price of an index, not total returns - you'd miss the dividends paid over those periods.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Davnasty on June 04, 2019, 08:51:30 AM
Any time I think I'm smart enough to time the market, I find the graph below very helpful.  If following my own logic/insight, I would have sold during a LOT of world events that seemed like they would tank the market, but in fact had no effect at all:


So actually would been just fine sitting out for some very long periods when the market went nowhere... 1965-1983, 1999-2013

The purpose of the graph is to show how little relation there is between stock prices and major events, not to prove that the stock market always goes up. In fact many of these events likely did effect stock prices somewhere or somehow but even with the benefit of hindsight it's difficult to say why with any certainty.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Tyson on June 04, 2019, 08:53:30 AM
Any time I think I'm smart enough to time the market, I find the graph below very helpful.  If following my own logic/insight, I would have sold during a LOT of world events that seemed like they would tank the market, but in fact had no effect at all:

(https://concentuswealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/market-history.png)

So actually would been just fine sitting out for some very long periods when the market went nowhere... 1965-1983, 1999-2013

Wrong.  Times when the market when nowhere and also times when it dipped are actually the best times to invest because you're buying cheap.  Putting money in when it's going up or has already gone up is actually worse. 

Don't get me wrong, it'd be great if the market went up at a steady, predictable rate, but it doesn't.  So the best time to invest is NOW, whatever the conditions might be.  And keep investing all the way to FIRE, through all the ups, downs and flat periods. 

I mean, if you're point is that you'll do better if you can predict the future, then I'd agree with that.  What the chart illustrates is that it's impossible to do that. 
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: PDXTabs on June 04, 2019, 09:01:31 AM
So actually would been just fine sitting out for some very long periods when the market went nowhere... 1965-1983, 1999-2013

Wrong.  Times when the market when nowhere and also times when it dipped are actually the best times to invest because you're buying cheap.  Putting money in when it's going up or has already gone up is actually worse. 

When the stock market was stagnating in the early 80s my grandfather was buying 30 year treasury bonds with double digit coupon yields. But that really isn't an option today.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Tyson on June 04, 2019, 09:05:33 AM
So actually would been just fine sitting out for some very long periods when the market went nowhere... 1965-1983, 1999-2013

Wrong.  Times when the market when nowhere and also times when it dipped are actually the best times to invest because you're buying cheap.  Putting money in when it's going up or has already gone up is actually worse. 

When the stock market was stagnating in the early 80s my grandfather was buying 30 year treasury bonds with double digit coupon yields. But that really isn't an option today.

Oh sure, that would have been a great investment.  And to give another example, my parents had a mortgage in the 80's with interest rates in the 16% range, and with a mortgage that high, it makes sense to pay it down.  But nowadays, interest rates are low so stocks make the most sense.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: fattest_foot on June 04, 2019, 09:30:50 AM
So actually would been just fine sitting out for some very long periods when the market went nowhere... 1965-1983, 1999-2013

This is the fallacy with only looking at market peaks and valleys.

Why do you completely overlook all of the time between those? If you're buying all those dips, you're making money on the way up. VERY few people lump sum invest at the top and then withdraw everything all at once.

It's why the 4% rule works. Sometimes you withdraw a little bit when the market is down, and sometimes when it's up. But because it's mostly up, you're not completely bankrupt just because of a recession.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: talltexan on June 04, 2019, 09:43:28 AM
I've been wondering about the markets.....the S&P has been going up for 10 years or so and apparently things never tend to go up for that long....there tends to be a depression of some sort every ten years or so....I'm in the UK and with Brexit in Oct....I'm unsure as to whether to wait to buy some investments in the next year or so, or just invest now accepting that it'll go down, but over 10 years come back up.

Hmm, tricky.....

There is a chinese proverb about the best time for investing was 20 years ago, the second best time is now.....I just think markets all might go down in next year or so.....

I have been only been casually following the brexit stuff. Am I reading this right: you are assuming markets in Britannia will tank if brexit happens? Why would this be the case? It might be bumpy, but over the long term the UK will likely benefit. Look at the U.S. When we broke away from an over-bearing, uncaring gov't our economy took off. The same could be for you. In this case it would be bloodless.

On another note, buy now!

I'm not sure that comparing the United States colonial uprising 200 plus years ago against the British to the UK leaving the EU today makes any sort of sense.  The situations are not comparable just about any way you look at them.

There's an awful lot of information saying that Brexit is a bad idea long term for the UK.  Don't take my word for it, check out the UK government's own reports (https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/the-governments-own-brexit-analysis-says-the-uk-will-be (https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/the-governments-own-brexit-analysis-says-the-uk-will-be)).  Or check out what economists are overwhelmingly saying (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/28/economists-reject-brexit-boost-cameron (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/28/economists-reject-brexit-boost-cameron), https://piie.com/publications/working-papers/brexit-everyone-loses-britain-loses-most (https://piie.com/publications/working-papers/brexit-everyone-loses-britain-loses-most), etc).  The economic evidence appears to be heavily against Brexit.

Can you provide the sources you're using that say otherwise?

When the American colonies were at the brink of independence (in the 1770's), their  citizens were already among the most affluent in the world.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Chuck Ditallin on June 04, 2019, 11:52:37 AM
Northern Ireland certainly isn't staying in the EU. Eire is staying in the EU.

I'll also point out that economists were predicting disaster for the UK economy immediately if the referendum result was in favour of leaving the EU; they were completely wrong.

They may or may not be correct about the consequences should the UK leave the EU with no deal, but their track record on Brexit-related matters leaves much to be desired.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: talltexan on June 04, 2019, 12:19:27 PM
1.8% real GDP growth for UK in 2017.

Compared to US figure 0f 2.2%.

Is all of that difference attributed to Brexit? probably not.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Telecaster on June 04, 2019, 01:50:39 PM
Northern Ireland certainly isn't staying in the EU. Eire is staying in the EU.

I'll also point out that economists were predicting disaster for the UK economy immediately if the referendum result was in favour of leaving the EU; they were completely wrong.

They may or may not be correct about the consequences should the UK leave the EU with no deal, but their track record on Brexit-related matters leaves much to be desired.

To me, this is one of the fascinating things about Brexit.   The Good Friday Agreement prohibits a hard border between Northern Ireland and EU member Ireland.   So how do customs work between the UK and the EU if there is no hard border?   One solution would be to leave the border open between NI and Ireland, and have the hard border around the rest of the UK.  But that makes NI more like EU member Ireland than a UK member.    The Good Friday Agreement does allow for re-unification of NI and Ireland, and there is now some popular support for just that:

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/brexit/2019/02/united-ireland-now-looks-increasing-possibility

Similarly, Scotland has a strong, but minority, independence movement, and Scotland would like to remain in the EU.   Maybe this is the issue that forces the Independence issue for Scotland as well.   
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: appleshampooid on June 05, 2019, 12:39:55 PM
Similarly, Scotland has a strong, but minority, independence movement, and Scotland would like to remain in the EU.   Maybe this is the issue that forces the Independence issue for Scotland as well.
The last referendum was fairly close (45 vs 55 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) so I wonder if they vote again sometime soon, if the EU issue will tip the scales. 
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: PDXTabs on June 05, 2019, 12:51:17 PM
To me, this is one of the fascinating things about Brexit.   The Good Friday Agreement prohibits a hard border between Northern Ireland and EU member Ireland.   So how do customs work between the UK and the EU if there is no hard border?   One solution would be to leave the border open between NI and Ireland, and have the hard border around the rest of the UK.  But that makes NI more like EU member Ireland than a UK member.    The Good Friday Agreement does allow for re-unification of NI and Ireland, and there is now some popular support for just that:

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/brexit/2019/02/united-ireland-now-looks-increasing-possibility

Similarly, Scotland has a strong, but minority, independence movement, and Scotland would like to remain in the EU.   Maybe this is the issue that forces the Independence issue for Scotland as well.

This is also my perspective as a UK citizen that has been abroad so long that I only half count, but I could move to Scotland long enough to vote to remain in the EU.

EDITed to add for clarity: there is a small but real chance that a hard Brexit could be the motivation for a unified Ireland and an independent Scotland.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: ChpBstrd on June 05, 2019, 02:28:49 PM
The rationales for Brexit are so emotional - no more rules and bureaucracy from Brussels! (As if the rules and bureaucracy from London are a different form of rules and bureaucracy that would change everyoneís lives for the better.)

Meanwhile in the big picture the British Empire which once spanned the globe, led world culture, and made English the language of world trade is about to become a minor European country occupying only the southern portion of an island, having lost the Scots, their status as a financial center, and apparently all ambition. Perhaps by the same logic Wales will secede too. Try to imagine how many people lost their lives trying to defeat or defend this empire which in the end folded itself like a bad hand at cards.

Lest we gloat, the U.S. will be the next victim of divide-and-conquer.

How crafty of the Russians to use our own inventions against us.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: talltexan on June 06, 2019, 07:57:08 AM
Truthfully, UK lost its status as the leading world power in the 1960's when it became clear that Pound-sterling was not going to remain as the world's reserve currency. Brexit won't be helping.

The US could have been in a position to strike a grand trade deal with UK, but I just don't think Trump has the skills to assemble a team that could honestly accomplish this.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: daverobev on June 06, 2019, 09:17:24 AM

To me, this is one of the fascinating things about Brexit.   The Good Friday Agreement prohibits a hard border between Northern Ireland and EU member Ireland.

It doesn't.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: dividendman on June 06, 2019, 07:51:57 PM
Truthfully, UK lost its status as the leading world power in the 1960's when it became clear that Pound-sterling was not going to remain as the world's reserve currency. Brexit won't be helping.

The US could have been in a position to strike a grand trade deal with UK, but I just don't think Trump has the skills to assemble a team that could honestly accomplish this.

Wales and England could join as the 51st and 52nd state.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: talltexan on June 11, 2019, 08:35:21 AM
Britain is popular here, but I cannot imagine Wales being desirable when people realize that they have this whole other distinct language.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Laserjet3051 on June 20, 2019, 12:06:02 PM
Surely by now, junioroldtimer must be getting close to a break even point?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: sol on June 20, 2019, 01:04:15 PM
Surely by now, junioroldtimer must be getting close to a break even point?

Hahahah, no.

Let's update!

junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On June 19 the closing price was $72.264, meaning that he had cost himself $4,509.39 after ~4 months of trying to time the market, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid on 3/21 plus $236.36 dividends not paid on 6/17 totals $5,079.36.  He's literally farther behind today than at any point since making the decision to bail on the markets back in February.

He's had a couple of chances to get back in with less than $1000 in losses, but so far there hasn't been a single moment when he could have broken even on his attempt at market timing.  He needs about an 8% drop in the index to end up back where he started.

Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: GuitarStv on June 20, 2019, 01:08:22 PM
Are you suggesting that the top was not in?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: DadJokes on June 20, 2019, 01:14:34 PM
Any time I think I'm smart enough to time the market, I find the graph below very helpful.  If following my own logic/insight, I would have sold during a LOT of world events that seemed like they would tank the market, but in fact had no effect at all:

(https://concentuswealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/market-history.png)

Can someone explain the SNL crisis between 1987-1991 to me? Did a popular cast member leave?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: HBFIRE on June 20, 2019, 01:17:41 PM

Can someone explain the SNL crisis between 1987-1991 to me? Did a popular cast member leave?

Savings & Loan crisis
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: DadJokes on June 20, 2019, 01:28:26 PM

Can someone explain the SNL crisis between 1987-1991 to me? Did a popular cast member leave?

Savings & Loan crisis

I prefer if it were a Saturday Night Live crisis.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: HBFIRE on June 20, 2019, 01:32:17 PM

I prefer if it were a Saturday Night Live crisis.

Well the prime years were 1980-1985, so I guess it kind of coincides for you.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: davisgang90 on June 20, 2019, 01:34:36 PM
So actually would been just fine sitting out for some very long periods when the market went nowhere... 1965-1983, 1999-2013

Wrong.  Times when the market when nowhere and also times when it dipped are actually the best times to invest because you're buying cheap.  Putting money in when it's going up or has already gone up is actually worse. 

When the stock market was stagnating in the early 80s my grandfather was buying 30 year treasury bonds with double digit coupon yields. But that really isn't an option today.

Oh sure, that would have been a great investment.  And to give another example, my parents had a mortgage in the 80's with interest rates in the 16% range, and with a mortgage that high, it makes sense to pay it down.  But nowadays, interest rates are low so stocks make the most sense.
My parents had a ridiculously high interest mortgage on a house they couldn't sell in the early 80's.  My super rich CEO uncle famously told my dad that we would never see mortgages below 12% again.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: v8rx7guy on July 24, 2019, 02:24:41 PM
We need an update in lieu of Sol...
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: v8rx7guy on July 24, 2019, 02:33:27 PM
I'll give it my best shot...

junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11 after one week of trying to time the market.
On Feb 22 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $1,866.26 after two weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 01 the closing price was $70.28, meaning that he had cost himself $2,402.03 after three weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 08 the closing price was $68.62, meaning that he had cost himself $919.73 after four weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 15 the closing price was $70.56, meaning that he had cost himself $2,652.05 after five weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 22 the closing price was $69.49, meaning that he had cost himself $1,696.60 after six weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,030.21.
On Mar 29 the closing price was $70.43, meaning that he had cost himself $2,535.97 after seven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,869.58.
On Apr 05 the closing price was $71.94, meaning that he had cost himself $3,884.32 after eight weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,217.94.
On Apr 12 the closing price was $72.35, meaning that he had cost himself $4,250.43 after nine weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,584.04.
On Apr 19 the closing price was $72.16, meaning that he had cost himself $4,080.77 after ten weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4412.38.
On Apr 26 the closing price was $73.09, meaning that he had cost himself $4,911.21 after eleven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $5,244.82.
On Jul 24 the closing price was $74.55, meaning that he had cost himself $6,214.93 after twenty three weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $6,784.90

Friends don't let friends time the market.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Davnasty on July 24, 2019, 02:44:45 PM
Or maybe he's bought back in? Found an alternative investment? @junioroldtimer ?


Quote
Last Active: July 23, 2019, 06:39:14 PM
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Laserjet3051 on July 24, 2019, 04:50:40 PM
Or maybe he's bought back in? Found an alternative investment? @junioroldtimer ?


Quote
Last Active: July 23, 2019, 06:39:14 PM
[/b]

So, I'm guessing he's quietly visiting this thread and taking the relentless humiliation on a regular basis?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: lowroller4111 on July 24, 2019, 08:22:11 PM
never ever ever time the market... stay the course!  People sometimes are their own worst enemy when it comes to investing.   As JL Collins once said... the best investment performers are DEAD PEOPLE because they never touch their portfolio and just let it sit there.  The next best performers are those that FORGOT they even had a portfolio LOL!
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Radagast on July 24, 2019, 11:17:09 PM
The problem with market timing is that the market takes six small steps forward for every single double size step back. Even if you correctly predict a crash and would have come out 20% ahead - with great timing on the bottom buy - , you will still spend twice as long watching the market creep up as you will in the duration of the eventual crash. Watching, waiting, wondering, as every month, for a year, the market crawls higher, questioning, second guessing, surely it was a bad call and it is time to capitulate, it has been two years, two and a half, you give up and buy back. Finally 3 years later a small crash gives you a lower entry point. It is the protracted waiting wrongness that will psyche people out even if they would have been right, coupled with the knowledge that they would be lucky to have as high as a 50% chance of ever being right.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: ChpBstrd on July 25, 2019, 08:21:30 AM
I wonder why stop loss orders and protective puts are not as popular as jumping in and out of the markets in response to media reports? An inability to hold two conflicting thoughts at once?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Maenad on July 26, 2019, 07:08:08 AM
So, I'm guessing he's quietly visiting this thread and taking the relentless humiliation on a regular basis?

Yuck, I hope not! We all make mistakes, and it's far better to learn from them and move on, than to feel constantly humiliated. I've certainly made much bigger ones than the ~$6800 one here.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: UnleashHell on July 26, 2019, 08:21:29 AM
So, I'm guessing he's quietly visiting this thread and taking the relentless humiliation on a regular basis?

Yuck, I hope not! We all make mistakes, and it's far better to learn from them and move on, than to feel constantly humiliated. I've certainly made much bigger ones than the ~$6800 one here.

me too.

I bought Lehman bros.
no way would they crash....... ooops.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Tyson on July 26, 2019, 09:32:18 AM
So, I'm guessing he's quietly visiting this thread and taking the relentless humiliation on a regular basis?

Yuck, I hope not! We all make mistakes, and it's far better to learn from them and move on, than to feel constantly humiliated. I've certainly made much bigger ones than the ~$6800 one here.

me too.

I bought Lehman bros.
no way would they crash....... ooops.

Part of the reason I never, ever, ever try to stock pick.  Boneheaded moves like that are exactly my wheelhouse.  Haha.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: UnleashHell on July 26, 2019, 10:00:00 AM
So, I'm guessing he's quietly visiting this thread and taking the relentless humiliation on a regular basis?

Yuck, I hope not! We all make mistakes, and it's far better to learn from them and move on, than to feel constantly humiliated. I've certainly made much bigger ones than the ~$6800 one here.

me too.

I bought Lehman bros.
no way would they crash....... ooops.

Part of the reason I never, ever, ever try to stock pick.  Boneheaded moves like that are exactly my wheelhouse.  Haha.

to make it worse I actually was going to invest that money in a stock that tripled from 2006 to 2009 but I took the advice of Merrill and bought 12k of lehman instead. that 12k and dividends in my initial choice would be worth about 70K today instead I got nothing.... sigh...

thats why I now invest in vanguard instead..
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: JAYSLOL on July 26, 2019, 06:35:54 PM
So, I'm guessing he's quietly visiting this thread and taking the relentless humiliation on a regular basis?

Yuck, I hope not! We all make mistakes, and it's far better to learn from them and move on, than to feel constantly humiliated. I've certainly made much bigger ones than the ~$6800 one here.

me too.

I bought Lehman bros.
no way would they crash....... ooops.

Part of the reason I never, ever, ever try to stock pick.  Boneheaded moves like that are exactly my wheelhouse.  Haha.

to make it worse I actually was going to invest that money in a stock that tripled from 2006 to 2009 but I took the advice of Merrill and bought 12k of lehman instead. that 12k and dividends in my initial choice would be worth about 70K today instead I got nothing.... sigh...

thats why I now invest in vanguard instead..

Thatís nothing, an old colleague of mine told me he inherited around 40k, not sure how long ago this was though.  He said he didnít know what to do with it, so he put the whole thing in Apple stock.  The stock price took a huge dip almost immediately and he vowed to sell as soon as it went back up to the 40k, which he did.  ...and today that 40k would have been like 900k or something like that. 
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: cl_noll on August 05, 2019, 06:36:44 PM

I'll give it my best shot...

junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11 after one week of trying to time the market.
On Feb 22 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $1,866.26 after two weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 01 the closing price was $70.28, meaning that he had cost himself $2,402.03 after three weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 08 the closing price was $68.62, meaning that he had cost himself $919.73 after four weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 15 the closing price was $70.56, meaning that he had cost himself $2,652.05 after five weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 22 the closing price was $69.49, meaning that he had cost himself $1,696.60 after six weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,030.21.
On Mar 29 the closing price was $70.43, meaning that he had cost himself $2,535.97 after seven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,869.58.
On Apr 05 the closing price was $71.94, meaning that he had cost himself $3,884.32 after eight weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,217.94.
On Apr 12 the closing price was $72.35, meaning that he had cost himself $4,250.43 after nine weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,584.04.
On Apr 19 the closing price was $72.16, meaning that he had cost himself $4,080.77 after ten weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4412.38.
On Apr 26 the closing price was $73.09, meaning that he had cost himself $4,911.21 after eleven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $5,244.82.
On Jul 24 the closing price was $74.55, meaning that he had cost himself $6,214.93 after twenty three weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $6,784.90

Friends don't let friends time the market.

Junior Old-timer nears the break even point!  WILL HE BE PROVEN RIGHT?

On Aug 05 the closing price was $70.62, meaning that he had cost himself $2,178.92 after twenty six weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $2,748.89
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: HBFIRE on August 05, 2019, 07:06:03 PM

Junior Old-timer nears the break even point!  WILL HE BE PROVEN RIGHT?

On Aug 05 the closing price was $70.62, meaning that he had cost himself $2,178.92 after twenty six weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $2,748.89

I'm assuming he's kept that cash in a high yield savings, so it is definitely getting pretty close to break even.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: nsmall on August 05, 2019, 10:45:29 PM
Junior Old-timer.  Its time to jump back in.   
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: talltexan on August 07, 2019, 12:47:45 PM
I had lunch with one of the perma-bears in the office today. He sees global ascendancy of China causing decreasing prices and labor costs, implying that there will be very little demand to propel growth forward for the next twenty years.

I told him that I'm 80% stocks, and he thought I was bearing some serious risk. I might be.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: PatronWizard11 on August 14, 2019, 08:00:39 PM
did you put your money into something else or sitting for the market to return to your break even price or go down further?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Swish on August 15, 2019, 11:38:11 AM
The suspense is killing me
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Tyson on August 15, 2019, 01:30:41 PM

Junior Old-timer nears the break even point!  WILL HE BE PROVEN RIGHT?

On Aug 05 the closing price was $70.62, meaning that he had cost himself $2,178.92 after twenty six weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $2,748.89

I'm assuming he's kept that cash in a high yield savings, so it is definitely getting pretty close to break even.

All that stress & toil, only to 'merely' break even in the end.  Assuming he even CAN break even at this point.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: ILikeDividends on August 15, 2019, 02:42:04 PM

Junior Old-timer nears the break even point!  WILL HE BE PROVEN RIGHT?

On Aug 05 the closing price was $70.62, meaning that he had cost himself $2,178.92 after twenty six weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $2,748.89

I'm assuming he's kept that cash in a high yield savings, so it is definitely getting pretty close to break even.

All that stress & toil, only to 'merely' break even in the end.  Assuming he even CAN break even at this point.
Assuming he realized capital gains when he first sold, he's possibly a lot further away from a break-even reentry point than where the market is now.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: v8rx7guy on August 15, 2019, 03:48:55 PM

Junior Old-timer nears the break even point!  WILL HE BE PROVEN RIGHT?

On Aug 05 the closing price was $70.62, meaning that he had cost himself $2,178.92 after twenty six weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $2,748.89

I'm assuming he's kept that cash in a high yield savings, so it is definitely getting pretty close to break even.

All that stress & toil, only to 'merely' break even in the end.  Assuming he even CAN break even at this point.

The basis of selling shares was "Russia" and "Impeachment", if it dips below the sell price... it's because of luck, not correct predictions.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: v8rx7guy on August 15, 2019, 03:55:36 PM
junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11 after one week of trying to time the market.
On Feb 22 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $1,866.26 after two weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 01 the closing price was $70.28, meaning that he had cost himself $2,402.03 after three weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 08 the closing price was $68.62, meaning that he had cost himself $919.73 after four weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 15 the closing price was $70.56, meaning that he had cost himself $2,652.05 after five weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 22 the closing price was $69.49, meaning that he had cost himself $1,696.60 after six weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,030.21.
On Mar 29 the closing price was $70.43, meaning that he had cost himself $2,535.97 after seven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,869.58.
On Apr 05 the closing price was $71.94, meaning that he had cost himself $3,884.32 after eight weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,217.94.
On Apr 12 the closing price was $72.35, meaning that he had cost himself $4,250.43 after nine weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,584.04.
On Apr 19 the closing price was $72.16, meaning that he had cost himself $4,080.77 after ten weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4412.38.
On Apr 26 the closing price was $73.09, meaning that he had cost himself $4,911.21 after eleven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $5,244.82.
On Jul 24 the closing price was $74.55, meaning that he had cost himself $6,214.93 after twenty three weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $6,784.90
On Aug 15 the closing price was $70.64, meaning that he had cost himself $2,723.49 after twenty six weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $3,293.46

Friends don't let friends time the market.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: dragoncar on August 15, 2019, 04:08:46 PM
We need an update in lieu of Sol...

What happened to sol?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: v8rx7guy on August 15, 2019, 04:29:22 PM
We need an update in lieu of Sol...

What happened to sol?

He left the forum about a month ago and never came back
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: JAYSLOL on August 15, 2019, 08:40:33 PM
We need an update in lieu of Sol...

What happened to sol?

He left the forum about a month ago and never came back

Just MIA, or was there a reason?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: solon on August 15, 2019, 08:44:28 PM
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/where-is-sol/
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: dragoncar on August 15, 2019, 10:40:19 PM
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/where-is-sol/

First they came for boarder42 and I didnít speak up because Iím not aggressively paying down my mortgage...

Then they came for sol and I didnít speak up because I didnít have a vitamix...

Somebody is systematically taking out walruses.  If we donít do something soon, nobody will be there to speak up for us

Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: markbike528CBX on August 15, 2019, 11:15:05 PM
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/where-is-sol/

First they came for boarder42 and I didnít speak up because Iím not aggressively paying down my mortgage...

Then they came for sol and I didnít speak up because I didnít have a vitamix...

Somebody is systematically taking out walruses.  If we donít do something soon, nobody will be there to speak up for us

Godwin and NiemŲller saw what you did there.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: EscapeVelocity2020 on August 15, 2019, 11:18:18 PM
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/where-is-sol/

First they came for boarder42 and I didnít speak up because Iím not aggressively paying down my mortgage...

Then they came for sol and I didnít speak up because I didnít have a vitamix...

Somebody is systematically taking out walruses.  If we donít do something soon, nobody will be there to speak up for us

Godwin saw what you did there.

So this is how to kill antithetical / heretical threads?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: dividendman on August 16, 2019, 12:39:19 AM
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/where-is-sol/

First they came for boarder42 and I didnít speak up because Iím not aggressively paying down my mortgage...

Then they came for sol and I didnít speak up because I didnít have a vitamix...

Somebody is systematically taking out walruses.  If we donít do something soon, nobody will be there to speak up for us

We must take a stand now and speak up for the Top!
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: robartsd on August 16, 2019, 08:49:56 AM
Just to be clear, Sol was never banned (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/where-is-sol/msg2419315/#msg2419315). He chose to leave the forums after being warned by mods for a post he chose to make (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/off-topic/are-social-conservatives-always-wrong/msg2405352/#msg2405352) knowingly violating forum rules (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/off-topic/are-social-conservatives-always-wrong/msg2405500/#msg2405500). I think he overreacted to the post that triggered his fury, but I do understand why he was offended. This forum chooses to be a place where people are allowed to express points of view that some/many/most find offensive, but disallows personal attacks on anyone. Sol decided that such a place was not where he wanted to spend his time in retirement.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: dragoncar on August 16, 2019, 11:37:09 AM
Just to be clear, Sol was never banned (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/where-is-sol/msg2419315/#msg2419315). He chose to leave the forums after being warned by mods for a post he chose to make (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/off-topic/are-social-conservatives-always-wrong/msg2405352/#msg2405352) knowingly violating forum rules (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/off-topic/are-social-conservatives-always-wrong/msg2405500/#msg2405500). I think he overreacted to the post that triggered his fury, but I do understand why he was offensive. This forum chooses to be a place where people are allowed to express points of view that some/many/most find offensive, but disallows personal attacks on anyone. Sol decided that such a place was not where he wanted to spend his time in retirement.

You understand why he was offended, offensive, or both?

I definitely donít want to spend my time getting worked up in Internet political discussions, but thatís why I mostly stick to the light sided areas of the forum.  I might exchange a couple off topic jabs but anything over a handful of responses is just talking to the wind
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: BicycleB on August 16, 2019, 12:15:59 PM
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/where-is-sol/

First they came for boarder42 and I didnít speak up because Iím not aggressively paying down my mortgage...

Then they came for sol and I didnít speak up because I didnít have a vitamix...

Somebody is systematically taking out walruses.  If we donít do something soon, nobody will be there to speak up for us

Now I realize why my unconscious made me misspell my own screen name (and thus start over). By avoiding Walrus status, I can avoid the invisible hand of Forum Darwin indefinitely!
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: robartsd on August 16, 2019, 02:07:16 PM
Just to be clear, Sol was never banned (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/where-is-sol/msg2419315/#msg2419315). He chose to leave the forums after being warned by mods for a post he chose to make (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/off-topic/are-social-conservatives-always-wrong/msg2405352/#msg2405352) knowingly violating forum rules (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/off-topic/are-social-conservatives-always-wrong/msg2405500/#msg2405500). I think he overreacted to the post that triggered his fury, but I do understand why he was offensiveoffended. This forum chooses to be a place where people are allowed to express points of view that some/many/most find offensive, but disallows personal attacks on anyone. Sol decided that such a place was not where he wanted to spend his time in retirement.

You understand why he was offended, offensive, or both?

I definitely donít want to spend my time getting worked up in Internet political discussions, but thatís why I mostly stick to the light sided areas of the forum.  I might exchange a couple off topic jabs but anything over a handful of responses is just talking to the wind
Opps, I meant "offended". I agree that most of those off topic threads are a bunch of people mostly ignoring each other's point of view while trying to promote their own.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: dragoncar on August 16, 2019, 02:29:09 PM
Just to be clear, Sol was never banned (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/where-is-sol/msg2419315/#msg2419315). He chose to leave the forums after being warned by mods for a post he chose to make (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/off-topic/are-social-conservatives-always-wrong/msg2405352/#msg2405352) knowingly violating forum rules (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/off-topic/are-social-conservatives-always-wrong/msg2405500/#msg2405500). I think he overreacted to the post that triggered his fury, but I do understand why he was offensiveoffended. This forum chooses to be a place where people are allowed to express points of view that some/many/most find offensive, but disallows personal attacks on anyone. Sol decided that such a place was not where he wanted to spend his time in retirement.

You understand why he was offended, offensive, or both?

I definitely donít want to spend my time getting worked up in Internet political discussions, but thatís why I mostly stick to the light sided areas of the forum.  I might exchange a couple off topic jabs but anything over a handful of responses is just talking to the wind
Opps, I meant "offended". I agree that most of those off topic threads are a bunch of people mostly ignoring each other's point of view while trying to promote their own.

No, you're wrong.  I really feel that most of those off topic threads are a bunch of people mostly ignoring each other's point of view while trying to promote their own.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: v8rx7guy on August 16, 2019, 03:11:25 PM
Just to be clear, Sol was never banned (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/where-is-sol/msg2419315/#msg2419315). He chose to leave the forums after being warned by mods for a post he chose to make (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/off-topic/are-social-conservatives-always-wrong/msg2405352/#msg2405352) knowingly violating forum rules (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/off-topic/are-social-conservatives-always-wrong/msg2405500/#msg2405500). I think he overreacted to the post that triggered his fury, but I do understand why he was offensiveoffended. This forum chooses to be a place where people are allowed to express points of view that some/many/most find offensive, but disallows personal attacks on anyone. Sol decided that such a place was not where he wanted to spend his time in retirement.

You understand why he was offended, offensive, or both?

I definitely donít want to spend my time getting worked up in Internet political discussions, but thatís why I mostly stick to the light sided areas of the forum.  I might exchange a couple off topic jabs but anything over a handful of responses is just talking to the wind
Opps, I meant "offended". I agree that most of those off topic threads are a bunch of people mostly ignoring each other's point of view while trying to promote their own.

No, you're wrong.  I really feel that most of those off topic threads are a bunch of people mostly ignoring each other's point of view while trying to promote their own.

I see what ya did there...
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: dragoncar on August 16, 2019, 03:56:19 PM
Just to be clear, Sol was never banned (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/where-is-sol/msg2419315/#msg2419315). He chose to leave the forums after being warned by mods for a post he chose to make (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/off-topic/are-social-conservatives-always-wrong/msg2405352/#msg2405352) knowingly violating forum rules (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/off-topic/are-social-conservatives-always-wrong/msg2405500/#msg2405500). I think he overreacted to the post that triggered his fury, but I do understand why he was offensiveoffended. This forum chooses to be a place where people are allowed to express points of view that some/many/most find offensive, but disallows personal attacks on anyone. Sol decided that such a place was not where he wanted to spend his time in retirement.

You understand why he was offended, offensive, or both?

I definitely donít want to spend my time getting worked up in Internet political discussions, but thatís why I mostly stick to the light sided areas of the forum.  I might exchange a couple off topic jabs but anything over a handful of responses is just talking to the wind
Opps, I meant "offended". I agree that most of those off topic threads are a bunch of people mostly ignoring each other's point of view while trying to promote their own.

No, you're wrong.  I really feel that most of those off topic threads are a bunch of people mostly ignoring each other's point of view while trying to promote their own.

I see what ya did there...

Why does everyone keep seeing what I did?  Stop watching me, people
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: BicycleB on August 16, 2019, 04:08:49 PM
Dragons and cars. Some things you just can't unsee.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Davnasty on August 17, 2019, 12:23:12 PM
Dragons and cars. Some things you just can't unsee.

Indeed. That avatar will never look the same now that I know.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: JAYSLOL on August 18, 2019, 10:44:24 AM
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/where-is-sol/

First they came for boarder42 and I didnít speak up because Iím not aggressively paying down my mortgage...

Then they came for sol and I didnít speak up because I didnít have a vitamix...

Somebody is systematically taking out walruses.  If we donít do something soon, nobody will be there to speak up for us

At what post count do you get walrus status?  I donít want to fall victim to the forum assassins, if I get too close can I delete old posts to keep posting but stay just under the limit?  Is there a way to reverse-post?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: DadJokes on August 19, 2019, 07:09:55 AM
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/welcome-to-the-forum/where-is-sol/

First they came for boarder42 and I didnít speak up because Iím not aggressively paying down my mortgage...

Then they came for sol and I didnít speak up because I didnít have a vitamix...

Somebody is systematically taking out walruses.  If we donít do something soon, nobody will be there to speak up for us

At what post count do you get walrus status?  I donít want to fall victim to the forum assassins, if I get too close can I delete old posts to keep posting but stay just under the limit?  Is there a way to reverse-post?

I think 5k, so you're probably safe for a bit.

But you know how these slippery slope things work...
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: norajean on August 19, 2019, 09:52:07 AM
Market timing can work really well but many people forget there are two things required. 1) you need to know *which way* the market will go and 2) you need to know *when*.    Anyone can predict the market will rise or crash and be correct, eventually.  But if you get the timing wrong, it can ruin you financially (if you are acting on your predictions). If you missed the best 10 days the market had the last 20 years, you cut your returns in half vs staying invested.  Market timing is playing with FIRE, so to speak.   What is weird to me is that most people read and learn all these lessons from others who have learned them the hard way, but some still want to learn their own lessons.

The good news is the market has gone up, so the OP maybe has learned a hard lesson he can use.  Far worse would have been for the market to fall and the OP to get the false impression she/he was able to predict market behavior and reap rewards. In that case, she/he would made a far larger mistake in the future and eventually been much sorrier that she/he is today.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: HBFIRE on August 19, 2019, 10:07:33 AM
Market timing can work really well but many people forget there are two things required. 1) you need to know *which way* the market will go and 2) you need to know *when*.   

Not only that, but you need to know "when" twice.  When to sell and when to buy back in.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: dragoncar on August 19, 2019, 12:35:25 PM
Itís hard, even for someone who has been doing this for quite a while.  I have a family member that has accumulated perhaps a year worth of expenses (extra beyond any emergency fund or monthly buffer) in cash right now and isnít sure if they should invest it.  I know that the generally optimal approach is just invest it now according to their current AA.  Nevertheless, itís hard for me to suggest given the current market volatility.  Itís much easier for ME to do it myself because Iím less guilty if I am ďwrongĒ and the market ranks, which of course it eventually will
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Tyson on August 19, 2019, 01:05:43 PM
Itís hard, even for someone who has been doing this for quite a while.  I have a family member that has accumulated perhaps a year worth of expenses (extra beyond any emergency fund or monthly buffer) in cash right now and isnít sure if they should invest it.  I know that the generally optimal approach is just invest it now according to their current AA.  Nevertheless, itís hard for me to suggest given the current market volatility.  Itís much easier for ME to do it myself because Iím less guilty if I am ďwrongĒ and the market ranks, which of course it eventually will

That's what dollar-cost-averaging is meant for.  Take the total $$, divide it into 12 or 24 or 36 equal portions and then invest it over 12 months, 24 months, or 36 months, whichever is easiest for the person to bear.  It's less optimal than just dumping it all in, but it does help if people are skittish about volatility.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: dragoncar on August 19, 2019, 01:13:01 PM
Itís hard, even for someone who has been doing this for quite a while.  I have a family member that has accumulated perhaps a year worth of expenses (extra beyond any emergency fund or monthly buffer) in cash right now and isnít sure if they should invest it.  I know that the generally optimal approach is just invest it now according to their current AA.  Nevertheless, itís hard for me to suggest given the current market volatility.  Itís much easier for ME to do it myself because Iím less guilty if I am ďwrongĒ and the market ranks, which of course it eventually will

That's what dollar-cost-averaging is meant for.  Take the total $$, divide it into 12 or 24 or 36 equal portions and then invest it over 12 months, 24 months, or 36 months, whichever is easiest for the person to bear.  It's less optimal than just dumping it all in, but it does help if people are skittish about volatility.

Because itís statistically sub-optimal I also hesitate to recommend this.  Obviously I can push the ultimate choice to the investor but their indecisiveness got us here in the first place.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Tyson on August 19, 2019, 02:27:46 PM
Either choice is better than letting the money sit idle.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: BicycleB on August 19, 2019, 03:20:35 PM
If they're new, maybe the best thing is to just continue praising their saving.

Until they're willing to invest a little per month in stock, of course.

Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: NWOutlier on August 19, 2019, 06:02:36 PM
this may have already been posted - but, "time in the market is better than timing the market"

From Buffet
Dancing In and Out of Investments

ďSince the basic game is so favorable, Charlie and I believe itís a terrible mistake to try to dance in and out of it based upon the turn of tarot cards, the predictions of ďexperts,Ē or the ebb and flow of business activity. The risks of being out of the game are huge compared to the risks of being in it.Ē -Warren Buffet in his 2012 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: AdrianC on August 20, 2019, 07:29:43 AM
And yet...Berkshire is currently sitting on $120B in cash.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Boofinator on August 20, 2019, 03:29:38 PM
Itís hard, even for someone who has been doing this for quite a while.  I have a family member that has accumulated perhaps a year worth of expenses (extra beyond any emergency fund or monthly buffer) in cash right now and isnít sure if they should invest it.  I know that the generally optimal approach is just invest it now according to their current AA.  Nevertheless, itís hard for me to suggest given the current market volatility.  Itís much easier for ME to do it myself because Iím less guilty if I am ďwrongĒ and the market ranks, which of course it eventually will

That's what dollar-cost-averaging is meant for.  Take the total $$, divide it into 12 or 24 or 36 equal portions and then invest it over 12 months, 24 months, or 36 months, whichever is easiest for the person to bear.  It's less optimal than just dumping it all in, but it does help if people are skittish about volatility.

Because itís statistically sub-optimal I also hesitate to recommend this.  Obviously I can push the ultimate choice to the investor but their indecisiveness got us here in the first place.

It depends on the statistic one is using to determine optimality. DCA reduces left-tail risk, especially when combined with putting the money that is sitting on the sidelines into some low-risk interest bearing instrument. So DCA might be an optimal approach for someone nearing retirement (the low human capital type) who needs their money to last.

But, for most people in most times of their lives, DCA is suboptimal from the perspective of maximizing expected returns. Just do it. The equivalent to DCA would be if you could take out a chunk of your investments out of the market without tax consequences and then reinvest slowly over time, would you? Obviously not for I'd guess at least 99% of us.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: talltexan on August 27, 2019, 11:57:45 AM
I always thought DCA was your internal risk-meter telling you that you don't have the guts to be 100% in stocks?

Wanting to keep some out of the market in case it drops? Vanguard Wellington for you!
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: markbike528CBX on August 27, 2019, 09:26:51 PM
I always thought DCA was your internal risk-meter telling you that you don't have the guts to be 100% in stocks?

Wanting to keep some out of the market in case it drops? Vanguard Wellington No soup for you!
FTFY
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: vand on August 28, 2019, 01:18:58 AM
Another way to look at DCAing is that it is a form of diversification, but instead of across different securities/asset classes it is diversification across time.

Is it optimal? That depends upon your tolerance for risk. I will never criticize someone who using DCAing because I have an appreciation for managing risk. As always your rate of accumulation can be more or less agressive depending on how you see the balance of risk vs reward.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: habaneroNorway on August 28, 2019, 01:51:14 AM
And yet...Berkshire is currently sitting on $120B in cash.

One of Buffet's sacred principles is to never, ever have less than 20bn in cash available (another is to have no debt)

But he has repeatedly stated they are currently lacking investment alternatives. He wants to "shoot an elephant" but can't find any reasonably priced. He also once said "It's generally better to do nothing than doing the wrong thing".
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: ecchastang on August 28, 2019, 06:57:39 AM

One of Buffet's sacred principles is to never, ever have less than 20bn in cash available (another is to have no debt)

But he has repeatedly stated they are currently lacking investment alternatives. He wants to "shoot an elephant" but can't find any reasonably priced. He also once said "It's generally better to do nothing than doing the wrong thing".
Interesting perspective.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: habaneroNorway on August 28, 2019, 08:14:49 AM
The 20bn refers to Berkshire, obviously, not his PA.... They shall never be in a situation where they run out of liquidity and it's considered important for the credibility of the insurance business which is at the very core of the empire.

His case for no debt is that it's the only way it's possible to loose everything. They don't need leverage for anything (some of the subsdiaries, due to the nature of the business - especially in utilities hold sizeable debt, but it's not guaranteed by the mothership).

Here is his famous quote on debt:

We use debt sparingly. Many managers, it should be noted, will disagree with this policy, arguing that significant debt juices the returns for equity owners. And these more venturesome CEOs will be right most of the time.

At rare and unpredictable intervals, however, credit vanishes and debt becomes financially fatal.
A Russian-roulette equation Ė usually win, occasionally die Ė may make financial sense for someone who gets a piece of a companyís upside but does not share in its downside. But that strategy would be madness for Berkshire.

Rational people donít risk what they have and need for what they donít have and donít need.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Tyson on August 28, 2019, 09:47:29 AM
Buffet is a value investor - it means he's very active about picking stocks/companies to invest in. 

His advice to everyone is basically "if you're not as good as me, avoid stock picking, period.  Everyone not at my level should be investing in Index funds". 

And the fact that even Buffet can't find a "value" company to invest in now, means that everyone else sure as hell should NOT be trying to freaking stock pick or do any freaking market timing. 
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: habaneroNorway on August 29, 2019, 12:00:28 PM
His advice to everyone is basically "if you're not as good as me, avoid stock picking, period.  Everyone not at my level should be investing in Index funds". 

Yes, his instructions to whoever is gonna take care of his wife's wealth when he dies (and probably for everyone else as well) is very simple: 90% in a low-cost S&P 500 index fund, 10% in short-term US treasuries.

Another classic, which is on the topic of this thread:

"The Dow started the last century at 66 and ended at 11,400. How could you lose money during a period like that? A lot of people did because they tried to dance in and out."
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: YoungGranny on September 04, 2019, 06:25:54 AM
junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11 after one week of trying to time the market.
On Feb 22 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $1,866.26 after two weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 01 the closing price was $70.28, meaning that he had cost himself $2,402.03 after three weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 08 the closing price was $68.62, meaning that he had cost himself $919.73 after four weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 15 the closing price was $70.56, meaning that he had cost himself $2,652.05 after five weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 22 the closing price was $69.49, meaning that he had cost himself $1,696.60 after six weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,030.21.
On Mar 29 the closing price was $70.43, meaning that he had cost himself $2,535.97 after seven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,869.58.
On Apr 05 the closing price was $71.94, meaning that he had cost himself $3,884.32 after eight weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,217.94.
On Apr 12 the closing price was $72.35, meaning that he had cost himself $4,250.43 after nine weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,584.04.
On Apr 19 the closing price was $72.16, meaning that he had cost himself $4,080.77 after ten weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4412.38.
On Apr 26 the closing price was $73.09, meaning that he had cost himself $4,911.21 after eleven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $5,244.82.
On Jul 24 the closing price was $74.55, meaning that he had cost himself $6,214.93 after twenty three weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $6,784.90
On Aug 15 the closing price was $70.64, meaning that he had cost himself $2,723.49 after twenty six weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $3,293.46
On Sep 3 the closing price was $72.04, meaning that he had cost himself $3,973.62 after thirty weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $4,543.59

Friends don't let friends time the market.

Updated because I'm using this as an example for a friend who is trying to time the market :)
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: solon on September 04, 2019, 03:13:16 PM
junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11 after one week of trying to time the market.
On Feb 22 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $1,866.26 after two weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 01 the closing price was $70.28, meaning that he had cost himself $2,402.03 after three weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 08 the closing price was $68.62, meaning that he had cost himself $919.73 after four weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 15 the closing price was $70.56, meaning that he had cost himself $2,652.05 after five weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 22 the closing price was $69.49, meaning that he had cost himself $1,696.60 after six weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,030.21.
On Mar 29 the closing price was $70.43, meaning that he had cost himself $2,535.97 after seven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,869.58.
On Apr 05 the closing price was $71.94, meaning that he had cost himself $3,884.32 after eight weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,217.94.
On Apr 12 the closing price was $72.35, meaning that he had cost himself $4,250.43 after nine weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,584.04.
On Apr 19 the closing price was $72.16, meaning that he had cost himself $4,080.77 after ten weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4412.38.
On Apr 26 the closing price was $73.09, meaning that he had cost himself $4,911.21 after eleven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $5,244.82.
On Jul 24 the closing price was $74.55, meaning that he had cost himself $6,214.93 after twenty three weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $6,784.90
On Aug 15 the closing price was $70.64, meaning that he had cost himself $2,723.49 after twenty six weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $3,293.46
On Sep 3 the closing price was $72.04, meaning that he had cost himself $3,973.62 after thirty weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $4,543.59

Friends don't let friends time the market.

Updated because I'm using this as an example for a friend who is trying to time the market :)

Thanks for updating. It's fun to follow along.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: EvenSteven on September 04, 2019, 03:39:00 PM
junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11 after one week of trying to time the market.
On Feb 22 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $1,866.26 after two weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 01 the closing price was $70.28, meaning that he had cost himself $2,402.03 after three weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 08 the closing price was $68.62, meaning that he had cost himself $919.73 after four weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 15 the closing price was $70.56, meaning that he had cost himself $2,652.05 after five weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 22 the closing price was $69.49, meaning that he had cost himself $1,696.60 after six weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,030.21.
On Mar 29 the closing price was $70.43, meaning that he had cost himself $2,535.97 after seven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,869.58.
On Apr 05 the closing price was $71.94, meaning that he had cost himself $3,884.32 after eight weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,217.94.
On Apr 12 the closing price was $72.35, meaning that he had cost himself $4,250.43 after nine weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,584.04.
On Apr 19 the closing price was $72.16, meaning that he had cost himself $4,080.77 after ten weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4412.38.
On Apr 26 the closing price was $73.09, meaning that he had cost himself $4,911.21 after eleven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $5,244.82.
On Jul 24 the closing price was $74.55, meaning that he had cost himself $6,214.93 after twenty three weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $6,784.90
On Aug 15 the closing price was $70.64, meaning that he had cost himself $2,723.49 after twenty six weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $3,293.46
On Sep 3 the closing price was $72.04, meaning that he had cost himself $3,973.62 after thirty weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $4,543.59

Friends don't let friends time the market.

Updated because I'm using this as an example for a friend who is trying to time the market :)

I don't know why people think timing the market is difficult. You should have bought on March 8th, then sold on July 24th. It took me about 5 seconds of looking at this table to figure it out.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: catorbe on September 04, 2019, 03:46:37 PM
junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11 after one week of trying to time the market.
On Feb 22 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $1,866.26 after two weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 01 the closing price was $70.28, meaning that he had cost himself $2,402.03 after three weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 08 the closing price was $68.62, meaning that he had cost himself $919.73 after four weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 15 the closing price was $70.56, meaning that he had cost himself $2,652.05 after five weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 22 the closing price was $69.49, meaning that he had cost himself $1,696.60 after six weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,030.21.
On Mar 29 the closing price was $70.43, meaning that he had cost himself $2,535.97 after seven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,869.58.
On Apr 05 the closing price was $71.94, meaning that he had cost himself $3,884.32 after eight weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,217.94.
On Apr 12 the closing price was $72.35, meaning that he had cost himself $4,250.43 after nine weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,584.04.
On Apr 19 the closing price was $72.16, meaning that he had cost himself $4,080.77 after ten weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4412.38.
On Apr 26 the closing price was $73.09, meaning that he had cost himself $4,911.21 after eleven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $5,244.82.
On Jul 24 the closing price was $74.55, meaning that he had cost himself $6,214.93 after twenty three weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $6,784.90
On Aug 15 the closing price was $70.64, meaning that he had cost himself $2,723.49 after twenty six weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $3,293.46
On Sep 3 the closing price was $72.04, meaning that he had cost himself $3,973.62 after thirty weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $4,543.59

Friends don't let friends time the market.

Updated because I'm using this as an example for a friend who is trying to time the market :)

I don't know why people think timing the market is difficult. You should have bought on March 8th, then sold on July 24th. It took me about 5 seconds of looking at this table to figure it out.

Odd Todd says you should also buy again on August 15th
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: YoungGranny on October 28, 2019, 08:05:03 AM

junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11 after one week of trying to time the market.
On Feb 22 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $1,866.26 after two weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 01 the closing price was $70.28, meaning that he had cost himself $2,402.03 after three weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 08 the closing price was $68.62, meaning that he had cost himself $919.73 after four weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 15 the closing price was $70.56, meaning that he had cost himself $2,652.05 after five weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 22 the closing price was $69.49, meaning that he had cost himself $1,696.60 after six weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,030.21.
On Mar 29 the closing price was $70.43, meaning that he had cost himself $2,535.97 after seven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,869.58.
On Apr 05 the closing price was $71.94, meaning that he had cost himself $3,884.32 after eight weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,217.94.
On Apr 12 the closing price was $72.35, meaning that he had cost himself $4,250.43 after nine weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,584.04.
On Apr 19 the closing price was $72.16, meaning that he had cost himself $4,080.77 after ten weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4412.38.
On Apr 26 the closing price was $73.09, meaning that he had cost himself $4,911.21 after eleven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $5,244.82.
On Jul 24 the closing price was $74.55, meaning that he had cost himself $6,214.93 after twenty three weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $6,784.90
On Aug 15 the closing price was $70.64, meaning that he had cost himself $2,723.49 after twenty six weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $3,293.46
On Sep 3 the closing price was $72.04, meaning that he had cost himself $3,973.62 after thirty weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $4,543.59
On Oct 25 the closing price was $74.71, meaning that he had cost himself $6,357.80 after thirty seven weeks, plus $899.59 in dividends not paid is $7,257.39

Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Kierun on October 28, 2019, 02:42:08 PM
Thanks for the update YG!
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: ender on October 28, 2019, 08:44:50 PM
the dividend thing is interesting because it means even if/when shares go below the sale price, it has to go further below now (almost exactly $1/share more).
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: HBFIRE on October 28, 2019, 09:00:20 PM
the dividend thing is interesting because it means even if/when shares go below the sale price, it has to go further below now (almost exactly $1/share more).

This is assuming that money isn't being invested into anything.....surely it's at least in a high yield savings acc.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: YoungGranny on October 29, 2019, 09:04:59 AM
I know I personally reinvest all my dividends which would make the value of dividends not paid $931.41 if the OP had kept the money invested with the auto-reinvest dividends turned on or $910.72 if they put it in a high yield savings account earning 2%.

I've used this thread a handful of times to warn various friends who were trying to time the market and not a single one of them thought about dividends.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: talltexan on October 29, 2019, 01:16:53 PM
It's interesting how this thread has aged.

the President now appears all-but-certain to be impeached. The chances of his removal from office appear higher now than they did in February. But the Mueller report wasn't what moved the needle.

And--with all of that going on--the market has carved out fresh, new highs.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Tyson on October 29, 2019, 03:16:56 PM
the dividend thing is interesting because it means even if/when shares go below the sale price, it has to go further below now (almost exactly $1/share more).

This is assuming that money isn't being invested into anything.....surely it's at least in a high yield savings acc.

The OP said he was going to cash.  See reply #12 in this thread.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Laserjet3051 on October 29, 2019, 05:25:41 PM
It's interesting how this thread has aged.

the President now appears all-but-certain to be impeached. The chances of his removal from office appear higher now than they did in February. But the Mueller report wasn't what moved the needle.

And--with all of that going on--the market has carved out fresh, new highs.

"All but certain".......eh? Really? Market doesnt seem to think so though my crystal ball is not nearly as good as yours.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: HBFIRE on October 29, 2019, 05:35:30 PM


The OP said he was going to cash.  See reply #12 in this thread.

Well a lot of people use the term "cash" and savings/checking/money market accounts interchangeably.  I'll give the OP the benefit of the doubt there since he's on this forum.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Davnasty on October 29, 2019, 05:39:18 PM
It's interesting how this thread has aged.

the President now appears all-but-certain to be impeached. The chances of his removal from office appear higher now than they did in February. But the Mueller report wasn't what moved the needle.

And--with all of that going on--the market has carved out fresh, new highs.

"All but certain".......eh? Really? Market doesnt seem to think so though my crystal ball is not nearly as good as yours.

Why would these things be related? Isn't that a primary point of this thread?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Wrenchturner on October 29, 2019, 05:56:31 PM
Someone should make a thread like this for Trump's inevitable impeachment.


(or not.)


It's funny to look at those numbers and imagine what you'd do.  Would you buy in again at $69?  Sell at $70?  You'd want to stay in up to $74.  Buy in again at $70 and ride the current wave up...  Yeah right.  You're not going to cut through the volatility with your speculative brain.  It reminds me of the MythBusters episode where they walk blindfolded into a field trying to trace a straight line.

This pic was done in a forest but same thing.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: bacchi on October 29, 2019, 06:43:04 PM
It's interesting how this thread has aged.

the President now appears all-but-certain to be impeached. The chances of his removal from office appear higher now than they did in February. But the Mueller report wasn't what moved the needle.

And--with all of that going on--the market has carved out fresh, new highs.

"All but certain".......eh? Really? Market doesnt seem to think so though my crystal ball is not nearly as good as yours.

The "sole Power of Impeachment" lies with the House. That takes a majority vote on the articles of impeachment. Once the articles are approved by the full House, the President is impeached. Being "impeached" does not mean the President is removed from office or even convicted; that's the Senate's job.

There's a 79% chance at predictit that Trump will be impeached. Given the Democratic majority, that seems like a pretty good prediction.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: talltexan on November 06, 2019, 07:19:08 AM
Contrary to OP, my belief is that Trump's removal from office would cause a surge in stock prices. People have been holding back because of the uncertainty of the trade war project.

I'm 20% bonds, and 80% risky assets.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: TheHardenedInvestor on November 06, 2019, 07:23:43 AM
Depends on the fear you replace it with. If we go from trade wars to Democratic Socialism that seeks to regulate businesses, break them apart, tax them heavily, censor them, etc and generally meddle in their affairs, then maybe what we have isnít worse. But yeah, I hate tariffs and this trade war. Open up trade and watch America surge.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: ender on November 06, 2019, 07:45:30 AM
Contrary to OP, my belief is that Trump's removal from office would cause a surge in stock prices. People have been holding back because of the uncertainty of the trade war project.

I'm 20% bonds, and 80% risky assets.

Trump is interesting because while he's very pro-business, he's also not really pro-stability. Both of those outcomes are good for the market. Stability is, in the case Trump is gone, and so is him being pro-business.

But in other words, top is was in
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: bacchi on November 06, 2019, 12:15:15 PM
Depends on the fear you replace it with. If we go from trade wars to Democratic Socialism that seeks to regulate businesses, break them apart, tax them heavily, censor them, etc and generally meddle in their affairs, then maybe what we have isnít worse. But yeah, I hate tariffs and this trade war. Open up trade and watch America surge.

Warren/Sanders won't be able to implement any new taxes or M4A plan without Congress' help. That's unlikely to happen.

If Trump loses, the trade wars can immediately disappear. The pressure on the Fed also goes away (presumably).

But, yeah, there will be some fear about new taxes if Warren takes office. It'll go away pretty quickly if/when the Senate Republican majority refuses to budge.

If that happens, the top will truly be in.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: dragoncar on November 06, 2019, 05:18:21 PM
Depends on the fear you replace it with. If we go from trade wars to Democratic Socialism that seeks to regulate businesses, break them apart, tax them heavily, censor them, etc and generally meddle in their affairs, then maybe what we have isnít worse. But yeah, I hate tariffs and this trade war. Open up trade and watch America surge.

Breaking apart monopolies isnít good for the monopolies, but itís good for their competitors and the overall economy
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: talltexan on November 08, 2019, 02:05:35 PM
Indeed I wonder how our country will fare with that Democratic Socialist Mike Pence as our President. Giving him almost a year to wreck our economy...there is practically no bottom.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: v8rx7guy on November 15, 2019, 04:01:58 PM
junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11 after one week of trying to time the market.
On Feb 22 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $1,866.26 after two weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 01 the closing price was $70.28, meaning that he had cost himself $2,402.03 after three weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 08 the closing price was $68.62, meaning that he had cost himself $919.73 after four weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 15 the closing price was $70.56, meaning that he had cost himself $2,652.05 after five weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 22 the closing price was $69.49, meaning that he had cost himself $1,696.60 after six weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,030.21.
On Mar 29 the closing price was $70.43, meaning that he had cost himself $2,535.97 after seven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,869.58.
On Apr 05 the closing price was $71.94, meaning that he had cost himself $3,884.32 after eight weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,217.94.
On Apr 12 the closing price was $72.35, meaning that he had cost himself $4,250.43 after nine weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,584.04.
On Apr 19 the closing price was $72.16, meaning that he had cost himself $4,080.77 after ten weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4412.38.
On Apr 26 the closing price was $73.09, meaning that he had cost himself $4,911.21 after eleven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $5,244.82.
On Jul 24 the closing price was $74.55, meaning that he had cost himself $6,214.93 after twenty three weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $6,784.90
On Aug 15 the closing price was $70.64, meaning that he had cost himself $2,723.49 after twenty six weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $3,293.46
On Sep 3 the closing price was $72.04, meaning that he had cost himself $3,973.62 after thirty weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $4,543.59
On Oct 25 the closing price was $74.71, meaning that he had cost himself $6,357.80 after thirty seven weeks, plus $899.59 in dividends not paid is $7,257.39
On Nov 15 the closing price was $76.60, meaning that he had cost himself $8,045.47 after forty weeks, plus $899.59 in dividends not paid is $8,945.06
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: TheHardenedInvestor on November 15, 2019, 04:03:42 PM
+1 recap
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Malkynn on November 15, 2019, 05:39:21 PM
Every time I see an update in this thread, I just keep coming back to the sad fact that there was never some big money making play here in the first place. There was no huge jack pot even if the plan had worked out.

I mean, if OP had simply left their money in the market, it would have been profitable long term regardless of whatever happens, so it's not like they were hedging against some major loss.

Meanwhile, had they been able to accurately predict a profound drop, AND if they had managed to time their exit and re-entry with absolutely perfect market timing precision, the grand outcome of such a spectacular once in a lifetime feat would be...what?? A five figure increase in net worth?

As in, the kind of fluctuations that a mature, full FI stache go through on a regular basis? ie, no big deal at the end of the day after pulling off an incredibly improbable move with enormous chance of failure?

The maximum possible payoff is just so... disappointing.
It's like making a half court shot and getting rewarded with a gift certificate to Denny's.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Stamag on December 03, 2019, 05:22:48 PM
So you would have rather seen OP short the market instead of just liquidating to cash?  I agree that would be pretty exciting. 

I think the payoff would be worth it though, if the market crashes 25% and you buy back in then you would be cutting your time to retirement down by quite a bit
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Villanelle on December 03, 2019, 06:07:56 PM
So you would have rather seen OP short the market instead of just liquidating to cash?  I agree that would be pretty exciting. 

I think the payoff would be worth it though, if the market crashes 25% and you buy back in then you would be cutting your time to retirement down by quite a bit

Sure.  *If* you sell right before that 25% drop, and then buy back in magically at the very bottom. That is exceptionally unlikely, which I believe was the point.  It's a huge gamble--very tiny odds of getting it right--and yet the pay off isn't especially great.  Lots of risk, relatively little reward even if it comes out your way. 

I suspect she would have rather--to the extent that she has preferences about a stranger's finances--see him leave his money alone.  Why would the only choices be liquidate or short? 
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: MoneyQuirk on December 03, 2019, 08:35:44 PM
I think this post is an excellent summary of why it's a bad idea to be in cash.

Cash is betting against the market. The market overall goes up. Have enough cash for any concerns you need, and otherwise just relax and let the money work $ :).
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: talltexan on December 05, 2019, 09:11:39 AM
If cash is betting against the market, how would you describe buying a put option on $SPY?

Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: YoungGranny on December 05, 2019, 11:34:39 AM
I think an interesting take-away is that now the market would have to drop almost 13% just for the OP to break-even on this decision. So even when the market does eventually drop does the OP re-enter if there's a 10% drop, knowing they lost a bit of money but happy to enter at a lower price? Does the OP wait for a 20-30% drop but that could take years and perhaps the gains in the meantime offset the potential gain from timing the market. It's obvious now that the OP did not time the peak correctly (which is very difficult to do) so now what?

Personally, I'd re-enter the market ASAP and consider it a lesson learned but I could see why it would be tempting to double-down on your stance and try to wait for a drop.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: DadJokes on December 05, 2019, 11:42:58 AM
If cash is betting against the market, how would you describe buying a put option on $SPY?

An even bigger bet against the market?

It's betting the money line on a major underdog, as opposed to just betting that they will beat the spread.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: ChpBstrd on December 05, 2019, 07:55:23 PM
If cash is betting against the market, how would you describe buying a put option on $SPY?

A long put is a bet against the market. And cash is not a bet against the market; it's enough spending money to get through probabilistically likely negative fluctuations in the market price, at a confidence level that balances the risk of lost gains with the risk of being forced to sell low. The decision to go to cash is more complicated than the decision to buy a put.

Too bad the OP didn't risk a tiny fraction of their cash to buy a call option or the market wouldn't have run off without them.

Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Tyson on December 05, 2019, 09:43:59 PM
I think an interesting take-away is that now the market would have to drop almost 13% just for the OP to break-even on this decision. So even when the market does eventually drop does the OP re-enter if there's a 10% drop, knowing they lost a bit of money but happy to enter at a lower price? Does the OP wait for a 20-30% drop but that could take years and perhaps the gains in the meantime offset the potential gain from timing the market. It's obvious now that the OP did not time the peak correctly (which is very difficult to do) so now what?

Personally, I'd re-enter the market ASAP and consider it a lesson learned but I could see why it would be tempting to double-down on your stance and try to wait for a drop.

Some people hate to be wrong so much, they will refuse to admit a mistake, even when it costs them money.  Hell, especially when it costs them money!  Not saying that's true of the OP, but it is true of many.  Sometimes me included, haha.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: v8rx7guy on December 06, 2019, 02:49:18 PM
junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11 after one week of trying to time the market.
On Feb 22 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $1,866.26 after two weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 01 the closing price was $70.28, meaning that he had cost himself $2,402.03 after three weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 08 the closing price was $68.62, meaning that he had cost himself $919.73 after four weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 15 the closing price was $70.56, meaning that he had cost himself $2,652.05 after five weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 22 the closing price was $69.49, meaning that he had cost himself $1,696.60 after six weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,030.21.
On Mar 29 the closing price was $70.43, meaning that he had cost himself $2,535.97 after seven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,869.58.
On Apr 05 the closing price was $71.94, meaning that he had cost himself $3,884.32 after eight weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,217.94.
On Apr 12 the closing price was $72.35, meaning that he had cost himself $4,250.43 after nine weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,584.04.
On Apr 19 the closing price was $72.16, meaning that he had cost himself $4,080.77 after ten weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4412.38.
On Apr 26 the closing price was $73.09, meaning that he had cost himself $4,911.21 after eleven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $5,244.82.
On Jul 24 the closing price was $74.55, meaning that he had cost himself $6,214.93 after twenty three weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $6,784.90
On Aug 15 the closing price was $70.64, meaning that he had cost himself $2,723.49 after twenty six weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $3,293.46
On Sep 3 the closing price was $72.04, meaning that he had cost himself $3,973.62 after thirty weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $4,543.59
On Oct 25 the closing price was $74.71, meaning that he had cost himself $6,357.80 after thirty seven weeks, plus $899.59 in dividends not paid is $7,257.39
On Nov 15 the closing price was $76.60, meaning that he had cost himself $8,045.47 after forty weeks, plus $899.59 in dividends not paid is $8,945.06
On Dec 3 the closing price was $77.31, meaning that he had cost himself $8,679.46 after forty weeks, plus $899.59 in dividends not paid is $9,579.05
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: MoneyQuirk on December 10, 2019, 01:36:38 AM
OP "I remain confident on long-term prospects of the market".

Well.... ~\(-_-)/~
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: EliteZags on December 12, 2019, 04:07:49 PM
this woulda been cheaper for OP

https://www.personalfinanceclub.com/time-the-market-game/
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: MissNancyPryor on December 12, 2019, 05:22:12 PM
At the one year mark someone needs to do the math showing what it would have been with fully re-invested dividends all along which is the most common scenario during the accumulation phase to FIRE.  I might pencil that out myself from curiosity.

I wish OP would tell us when he bought back in- I can't imagine he is still sitting on the sidelines waiting for Russia to be a thing considering we are in full impeachment mode and the market gives approximately zero fucks. 

I appreciated the honesty to publicly make this play and it would be fine for him to admit he couldn't stand watching the Dow breach 28,000 from the sidelines.  The reasons he gave for expecting a crash obviously will not happen and it is OK to come out and complete the lesson here with the group.     
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: bisimpson on December 13, 2019, 03:08:11 PM
this woulda been cheaper for OP

https://www.personalfinanceclub.com/time-the-market-game/

This just took up the last 15 minutes....fascinating.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: JAYSLOL on December 13, 2019, 04:18:17 PM
this woulda been cheaper for OP

https://www.personalfinanceclub.com/time-the-market-game/

This just took up the last 15 minutes....fascinating.

The thing I notice most about games like this is that when I ďwinĒ and beat the market, itís usually for only a few % above the buy and hold return over the 10 year period, pretty low reward for considering when I lose (which is like 3/4 of the time) I usually lose by a lot. 
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: YoungGranny on December 30, 2019, 09:07:20 AM
junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11 after one week of trying to time the market.
On Feb 22 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $1,866.26 after two weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 01 the closing price was $70.28, meaning that he had cost himself $2,402.03 after three weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 08 the closing price was $68.62, meaning that he had cost himself $919.73 after four weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 15 the closing price was $70.56, meaning that he had cost himself $2,652.05 after five weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 22 the closing price was $69.49, meaning that he had cost himself $1,696.60 after six weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,030.21.
On Mar 29 the closing price was $70.43, meaning that he had cost himself $2,535.97 after seven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,869.58.
On Apr 05 the closing price was $71.94, meaning that he had cost himself $3,884.32 after eight weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,217.94.
On Apr 12 the closing price was $72.35, meaning that he had cost himself $4,250.43 after nine weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,584.04.
On Apr 19 the closing price was $72.16, meaning that he had cost himself $4,080.77 after ten weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4412.38.
On Apr 26 the closing price was $73.09, meaning that he had cost himself $4,911.21 after eleven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $5,244.82.
On Jul 24 the closing price was $74.55, meaning that he had cost himself $6,214.93 after twenty three weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $6,784.90
On Aug 15 the closing price was $70.64, meaning that he had cost himself $2,723.49 after twenty six weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $3,293.46
On Sep 3 the closing price was $72.04, meaning that he had cost himself $3,973.62 after thirty weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $4,543.59
On Oct 25 the closing price was $74.71, meaning that he had cost himself $6,357.80 after thirty seven weeks, plus $899.59 in dividends not paid is $7,257.39
On Nov 15 the closing price was $76.60, meaning that he had cost himself $8,045.47 after forty weeks, plus $899.59 in dividends not paid is $8,945.06
On Dec 3 the closing price was $77.31, meaning that he had cost himself $8,679.46 after forty weeks, plus $899.59 in dividends not paid is $9,579.05
On Dec 27 the closing price was $79.88, meaning that he had cost himself $10,974.34 after forty six weeks, plus $1,282.58 in dividends not paid is $12,256.92.

If OP had reinvested the dividends each quarter the total cost would be $12,340.96 which means the initial investment would have grown by about 20%. Assuming the OP moved the money to a savings account earning 2% they would have earned $1,115.76 on their original cash out making the difference $11,141.16.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: MissNancyPryor on December 30, 2019, 11:46:04 AM
If OP had reinvested the dividends each quarter the total cost would be $12,340.96 which means the initial investment would have grown by about 20%. Assuming the OP moved the money to a savings account earning 2% they would have earned $1,115.76 on their original cash out making the difference $11,141.16.

Thank you for doing this additional analysis. 


Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: talltexan on December 30, 2019, 11:50:45 AM
What's awkward is that I have a bunch of co-workers coming up to me and basically doing the same thing, i.e. telling me they're taking positions in bonds to whether whatever storm may be coming. I try not to hammer on them about how much they lose, but they also do not exhibit the candor of OP.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: ender on December 31, 2019, 07:54:01 PM
What's awkward is that I have a bunch of co-workers coming up to me and basically doing the same thing, i.e. telling me they're taking positions in bonds to whether whatever storm may be coming. I try not to hammer on them about how much they lose, but they also do not exhibit the candor of OP.

Maybe their IPS says to have a large bond position.


lol.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: talltexan on January 03, 2020, 11:44:57 AM
Yesterday was the day of truth...and...it turns out I have more bonds than any of the rest of them (I am the youngest).

Which means they out-returned me for 2019.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: BicycleB on January 04, 2020, 02:20:01 PM
@talltexan - well, the rubber meets the road the market drops. After that you can find out whether they still have less bonds!
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: TheHobbit on January 05, 2020, 03:14:21 PM
junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.
...

On Nov 15 the closing price was $76.60, meaning that he had cost himself $8,045.47 after forty weeks, plus $899.59 in dividends not paid is $8,945.06
On Dec 3 the closing price was $77.31, meaning that he had cost himself $8,679.46 after forty weeks, plus $899.59 in dividends not paid is $9,579.05
On Dec 27 the closing price was $79.88, meaning that he had cost himself $10,974.34 after forty six weeks, plus $1,282.58 in dividends not paid is $12,256.92.

If OP had reinvested the dividends each quarter the total cost would be $12,340.96 which means the initial investment would have grown by about 20%. Assuming the OP moved the money to a savings account earning 2% they would have earned $1,115.76 on their original cash out making the difference $11,141.16.

The actual cost is far far higher, inflation adjusted this cost OP something like 265k (552k not adjusted) over 40 years of future growth or 123k (213k not adjusted) over 30 years.  *poof* gonzo.  If OP is younger than say 40.... the numbers are even more stark....572k adjusted for inflation over 50yrs...  The power of compounding cuts both ways.

The damage one does with money mistakes in their 20s and 30s pail in comparison to the damage you might do in your 50s blowing it on that mid life crisis.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: v8rx7guy on January 17, 2020, 03:39:26 PM
junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11 after one week of trying to time the market.
On Feb 22 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $1,866.26 after two weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 01 the closing price was $70.28, meaning that he had cost himself $2,402.03 after three weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 08 the closing price was $68.62, meaning that he had cost himself $919.73 after four weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 15 the closing price was $70.56, meaning that he had cost himself $2,652.05 after five weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 22 the closing price was $69.49, meaning that he had cost himself $1,696.60 after six weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,030.21.
On Mar 29 the closing price was $70.43, meaning that he had cost himself $2,535.97 after seven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,869.58.
On Apr 05 the closing price was $71.94, meaning that he had cost himself $3,884.32 after eight weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,217.94.
On Apr 12 the closing price was $72.35, meaning that he had cost himself $4,250.43 after nine weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,584.04.
On Apr 19 the closing price was $72.16, meaning that he had cost himself $4,080.77 after ten weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4412.38.
On Apr 26 the closing price was $73.09, meaning that he had cost himself $4,911.21 after eleven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $5,244.82.
On Jul 24 the closing price was $74.55, meaning that he had cost himself $6,214.93 after twenty three weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $6,784.90
On Aug 15 the closing price was $70.64, meaning that he had cost himself $2,723.49 after twenty six weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $3,293.46
On Sep 3 the closing price was $72.04, meaning that he had cost himself $3,973.62 after thirty weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $4,543.59
On Oct 25 the closing price was $74.71, meaning that he had cost himself $6,357.80 after thirty seven weeks, plus $899.59 in dividends not paid is $7,257.39
On Nov 15 the closing price was $76.60, meaning that he had cost himself $8,045.47 after forty weeks, plus $899.59 in dividends not paid is $8,945.06
On Dec 3 the closing price was $77.31, meaning that he had cost himself $8,679.46 after forty weeks, plus $899.59 in dividends not paid is $9,579.05
On Dec 27 the closing price was $79.88, meaning that he had cost himself $10,974.34 after forty six weeks, plus $1,282.58 in dividends not paid is $12,256.92
On Jan 11 the closing price was $81.95, meaning that he had cost himself $12,822.75 after forty nine weeks, plus $1,282.58 in dividends not paid is $14,105.33
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: JLee on January 17, 2020, 03:49:04 PM
This was a hell of a year to miss.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: jps on January 17, 2020, 03:56:39 PM
junioroldtimer has missed out $14,105.33, or 23% of the original value! It could have grown by a quarter!
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Valhalla on January 17, 2020, 04:55:42 PM
Yup, it's impossible to time the market.  Just as OP moves back in, there could be a 25% crash, LOL.  Wouldn't that be a hell of a thing?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: HBFIRE on January 17, 2020, 04:58:42 PM
Yup, it's impossible to time the market.  Just as OP moves back in, there could be a 25% crash, LOL.  Wouldn't that be a hell of a thing?

Thats exactly the issue, knowing when to get back in is nearly impossible.  Even if you wait for a future large dip, it may not be lower than what the current price is now.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: FIRE 20/20 on January 17, 2020, 08:37:26 PM
junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.
...

Thank you for updating this!  One request - could you put the year on this, probably just in the first line?  I don't think it's necessary on each update line, but as we cross the one year mark new people might not be clear on when this started without going back to the beginning of the thread. 
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: HBFIRE on January 17, 2020, 08:44:46 PM
Well, the OP hasn't been active on here since July 29, 2019.  I don't think we'll get to hear from him.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: dragoncar on January 17, 2020, 09:47:42 PM
Well, the OP hasn't been active on here since July 29, 2019.  I don't think we'll get to hear from him.

Not until the next crash at least
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: frugledoc on January 18, 2020, 12:49:48 AM
Why do all the failed market timers go into hiding. Has anybody ever known if one to come back, accept they were wrong?  Are they just posting all over the internet with different usernames until they are right and can bask in their glory?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: GuitarStv on January 18, 2020, 07:05:16 AM
Maybe he can no longer pay for Internet.  :P
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Joe Schmo on January 18, 2020, 09:20:28 AM
Extra large huevos on that man for putting it out there on the interweb.
Gotta show respect.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Maenad on January 18, 2020, 10:08:53 AM
Why do all the failed market timers go into hiding. Has anybody ever known if one to come back, accept they were wrong?  Are they just posting all over the internet with different usernames until they are right and can bask in their glory?

Could be scared that we're all sitting here laughing at him. Given how much people can suck, it's an understandable fear.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Tyson on January 18, 2020, 10:51:34 AM
Why do all the failed market timers go into hiding. Has anybody ever known if one to come back, accept they were wrong?  Are they just posting all over the internet with different usernames until they are right and can bask in their glory?

Could be scared that we're all sitting here laughing at him. Given how much people can suck, it's an understandable fear.

I find that people will laugh for a bit at a mistake but will generally stop laughing once you own up to it and change your behavior.  It's only if someone obstinately refuses to learn that "laughing" turns to "mocking". 
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: JAYSLOL on January 18, 2020, 11:41:21 AM
Why do all the failed market timers go into hiding. Has anybody ever known if one to come back, accept they were wrong?  Are they just posting all over the internet with different usernames until they are right and can bask in their glory?

Could be scared that we're all sitting here laughing at him. Given how much people can suck, it's an understandable fear.

I find that people will laugh for a bit at a mistake but will generally stop laughing once you own up to it and change your behavior.  It's only if someone obstinately refuses to learn that "laughing" turns to "mocking".

This.  *cough* Top is In thread *cough*

I had higher hopes for OP, he stated his reasons, but didnít insist or argue that he couldnít be wrong, and seemed generally open and honest about taking a gamble.  Sucks that the market had to deliver such a blow to the guy over the last year, but thatís why we try not to time the market.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: dragoncar on January 18, 2020, 01:11:46 PM
It wasnít the optimal decision, but I wonder if it helped him sleep at night.... or if all the missed gains made him sleep worse. 
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: EliteZags on January 18, 2020, 02:49:40 PM
I'll be the first to admit it if this blows up in my face.

at what point will you consider it may have blown up in your face?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: daverobev on January 19, 2020, 02:35:44 AM
It wasnít the optimal decision, but I wonder if it helped him sleep at night.... or if all the missed gains made him sleep worse.

That's the rub, isn't it.

Honestly I'm nervous. S&P multiples are crazy. The 'Top is In' thread is hideous but it'll go dead pretty quickly when there is a significant drop. But of course we can't see the future - and where ARE you supposed to put money except in the stock market? That's what I keep asking myself.

So I've got a bit more cash than I had a couple of years ago, all of which made more complex by moving countries/buying a house/renovating... etc.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Davnasty on January 19, 2020, 07:42:33 PM
It wasnít the optimal decision, but I wonder if it helped him sleep at night.... or if all the missed gains made him sleep worse.

That's the rub, isn't it.

Honestly I'm nervous. S&P multiples are crazy. The 'Top is In' thread is hideous but it'll go dead pretty quickly when there is a significant drop. But of course we can't see the future - and where ARE you supposed to put money except in the stock market? That's what I keep asking myself.

So I've got a bit more cash than I had a couple of years ago, all of which made more complex by moving countries/buying a house/renovating... etc.

Methinks you've missed the point of "Top is in".

Also if I recall correctly it became more active with the drop of late 2018.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: daverobev on January 20, 2020, 01:14:01 AM
It wasnít the optimal decision, but I wonder if it helped him sleep at night.... or if all the missed gains made him sleep worse.

That's the rub, isn't it.

Honestly I'm nervous. S&P multiples are crazy. The 'Top is In' thread is hideous but it'll go dead pretty quickly when there is a significant drop. But of course we can't see the future - and where ARE you supposed to put money except in the stock market? That's what I keep asking myself.

So I've got a bit more cash than I had a couple of years ago, all of which made more complex by moving countries/buying a house/renovating... etc.

Methinks you've missed the point of "Top is in".

Also if I recall correctly it became more active with the drop of late 2018.

Please do enlighten me.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: BuildingFrugalHabits on January 20, 2020, 09:26:57 AM
Aside from selling and going to cash, if the OP is still working what is he doing with the money that he would have been investing in the market?  Is the cash just piling up somewhere and what is the plan for getting back into the market? 
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: TheAnonOne on January 20, 2020, 10:53:20 AM
Aside from selling and going to cash, if the OP is still working what is he doing with the money that he would have been investing in the market?  Is the cash just piling up somewhere and what is the plan for getting back into the market?

^This is what I was going to say.

The $14,000 or so he has lost on the initial is likely pennies next to the presumably stopped 401k contributions, yearly IRA, HSA and brokerage.

If you are a high earner you may max those accounts *many do here* and put away that 60k he sold just about every. single. year. So OPs 'loss'*** is likely 50-100% higher than stated now.

***loss is subjective here, missed gains might be better?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: HamsterStache on January 20, 2020, 11:17:15 AM
Aside from selling and going to cash, if the OP is still working what is he doing with the money that he would have been investing in the market?  Is the cash just piling up somewhere and what is the plan for getting back into the market?

^This is what I was going to say.

The $14,000 or so he has lost on the initial is likely pennies next to the presumably stopped 401k contributions, yearly IRA, HSA and brokerage.

If you are a high earner you may max those accounts *many do here* and put away that 60k he sold just about every. single. year. So OPs 'loss'*** is likely 50-100% higher than stated now.

***loss is subjective here, missed gains might be better?

That's not how I read OP's original post at all, unless there was a follow up at some point clarifying that I forgot about. I didn't assume he took everything out of the market and didn't continue putting anything else in. I assumed he "diversified" the specified portion into cash as an experiment with the assumption it could be put back into the market later for a profit.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: TheAnonOne on January 20, 2020, 11:19:22 AM
Aside from selling and going to cash, if the OP is still working what is he doing with the money that he would have been investing in the market?  Is the cash just piling up somewhere and what is the plan for getting back into the market?

^This is what I was going to say.

The $14,000 or so he has lost on the initial is likely pennies next to the presumably stopped 401k contributions, yearly IRA, HSA and brokerage.

If you are a high earner you may max those accounts *many do here* and put away that 60k he sold just about every. single. year. So OPs 'loss'*** is likely 50-100% higher than stated now.

***loss is subjective here, missed gains might be better?

That's not how I read OP's original post at all, unless there was a follow up at some point clarifying that I forgot about. I didn't assume he took everything out of the market and didn't continue putting anything else in. I assumed he "diversified" the specified portion into cash as an experiment with the assumption it could be put back into the market later for a profit.

You may be right on this, honestly it has been quite a while since I read the OP.

That being said, IF someone did this, the initial sell is just the start.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: fattest_foot on January 20, 2020, 12:45:10 PM
It wasnít the optimal decision, but I wonder if it helped him sleep at night.... or if all the missed gains made him sleep worse.

That's the rub, isn't it.

Honestly I'm nervous. S&P multiples are crazy. The 'Top is In' thread is hideous but it'll go dead pretty quickly when there is a significant drop. But of course we can't see the future - and where ARE you supposed to put money except in the stock market? That's what I keep asking myself.

So I've got a bit more cash than I had a couple of years ago, all of which made more complex by moving countries/buying a house/renovating... etc.

I dunno, seems like a lot of people have already forgotten the 20% drop from October through December of 2018. Top Is In thread didn't die because of it.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Davnasty on January 21, 2020, 08:02:19 AM
It wasnít the optimal decision, but I wonder if it helped him sleep at night.... or if all the missed gains made him sleep worse.

That's the rub, isn't it.

Honestly I'm nervous. S&P multiples are crazy. The 'Top is In' thread is hideous but it'll go dead pretty quickly when there is a significant drop. But of course we can't see the future - and where ARE you supposed to put money except in the stock market? That's what I keep asking myself.

So I've got a bit more cash than I had a couple of years ago, all of which made more complex by moving countries/buying a house/renovating... etc.

Methinks you've missed the point of "Top is in".

Also if I recall correctly it became more active with the drop of late 2018.

Please do enlighten me.

Who do you think I am, Thorstache?

But if I was going to make an attempt at summing it up, I'd say the point is to mock those who think they can predict the direction of the market as a whole, particularly when they use vocabulary like this:

"Fear is back, VIX above 15, XIV breaking down. SPY to follow, earnings will be a reality check."

Whether their prediction is up/down/sideways is beside the point.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: dragoncar on January 21, 2020, 12:13:04 PM
The ďbottom is inĒ game is only slightly less fun than the ďtop is inĒ game.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: GuitarStv on January 21, 2020, 12:30:21 PM
The ďbottom is inĒ game is only slightly less fun than the ďtop is inĒ game.

Who doesn't like a nice bottom?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: MrThatsDifferent on January 21, 2020, 12:32:09 PM
Geez, this thread has been going forever and it used to crack me up but now it just seems sad, especially as it feels like a whole lot of the same message: we told you so. We all get it, this guy was wrong, but really, 11 pages to make this point? Also, the OP hasnít been on the board since ď July 29, 2019, 06:34:03 PMĒ so at this point the repeated facepunching is really just kicking a corpse. Maybe we can dial down the smug and shift our energies to other topics that would help people learn and grow?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: GuitarStv on January 21, 2020, 12:53:15 PM
Geez, this thread has been going forever and it used to crack me up but now it just seems sad, especially as it feels like a whole lot of the same message: we told you so. We all get it, this guy was wrong, but really, 11 pages to make this point? Also, the OP hasnít been on the board since ď July 29, 2019, 06:34:03 PMĒ so at this point the repeated facepunching is really just kicking a corpse. Maybe we can dial down the smug and shift our energies to other topics that would help people learn and grow?

It's important that this type of example doesn't fade into the background, but can be brought forward every time a new member talks about doing the same (which is often).
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: MissNancyPryor on January 21, 2020, 12:54:11 PM
That will happen when new "time the market" themed threads stop being created by people with 22 posts. 

MMM is a tough schoolmaster but maybe others will see and learn along by reading these aging threads. 

Since Junior has departed he is suffering no ego bruises but there are many who may be getting something from it.  It is not personal and serves as a billboard of warnings to others, kept active. 

@GuitarStv, jinx
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: JAYSLOL on January 21, 2020, 01:09:48 PM
Geez, this thread has been going forever and it used to crack me up but now it just seems sad, especially as it feels like a whole lot of the same message: we told you so. We all get it, this guy was wrong, but really, 11 pages to make this point? Also, the OP hasnít been on the board since ď July 29, 2019, 06:34:03 PMĒ so at this point the repeated facepunching is really just kicking a corpse. Maybe we can dial down the smug and shift our energies to other topics that would help people learn and grow?

Iím pretty sure that showing the brutal truth of market timing is a topic that helps people learn and grow.  It has for me anyway.  Iíve gotten more confidence in my investment strategy through the ups and downs from reading through these threads. 
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: YoungGranny on January 21, 2020, 01:12:34 PM
Agree with GuitarStv and MissNancyPryor.

I don't think any of us are sitting here laughing at OP. I personally hope that a couple months into his adventure into timing the market he bit the bullet and got back in anyway so he hasn't lost out on all the gains. He's departed from the forums so we won't know but instead this thread can be used as a learning tool for everyone who comes here asking if it's a good time to get out of the market or wait to invest. We can say "Time in the market is always better than timing the market" but having a real-life example can be helpful.

It's also pretty rare to have a data point on how much somebody sold and when, I personally think it'll be interesting whenever the next market correction happens to see if the market drops enough to combat the market gains and dividends from when OP sold. Just a real-life example to illustrate market timing with actual numbers versus telling people it's never a good idea to time the market which doesn't necessarily give the same lesson. Especially when the typical person only posts market timing success stories, it's important to remember the losses.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Tyson on January 21, 2020, 02:32:52 PM
Maybe the OP is hanging out with mrpercentage, waiting for that Red Dow to wash over us:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/here-it-comes-red-dow/
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: MissNancyPryor on January 21, 2020, 02:49:19 PM
Maybe the OP is hanging out with mrpercentage, waiting for that Red Dow to wash over us:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/here-it-comes-red-dow/

We found his apparent doppleganger over doing a DIY growth fund on the forum recently.  Uncanny resemblance.  It would be fun to see if his picks work out though without jumping in to beat him up too badly, he could redeem any suspicions by letting everyone in on the good and bad outcomes of his attempts.  Mr. P was always missing big chunks of information and apparently never lost a nickel and that led everyone to believe he was just lying.  Maybe the new poster will just shoot straight and we can all learn.     
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Tyson on January 21, 2020, 02:53:08 PM
Maybe the OP is hanging out with mrpercentage, waiting for that Red Dow to wash over us:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/here-it-comes-red-dow/

We found his apparent doppleganger over doing a DIY growth fund on the forum recently.  Uncanny resemblance.  It would be fun to see if his picks work out though without jumping in to beat him up too badly, he could redeem any suspicions by letting everyone in on the good and bad outcomes of his attempts.  Mr. P was always missing big chunks of information and apparently never lost a nickel and that led everyone to believe he was just lying.  Maybe the new poster will just shoot straight and we can all learn.   

It's funny - the people that take the long, boring sure thing approach to investing always end up so much better off in the long run than the people that try to jump start their gains by 'gaming the system' or being a 'super smart active investor'. 

I mean, I guess it's statistically possible to time/beat the market.  But the odds are about the same as being struck by lightning.  While being eaten by sharks.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: UnleashHell on January 21, 2020, 02:55:32 PM
Maybe the new poster will just shoot straight and we can all learn.   

sure.
can I have some of whatever you are drinking please?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Psychstache on January 21, 2020, 02:57:34 PM
Maybe the OP is hanging out with mrpercentage, waiting for that Red Dow to wash over us:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/here-it-comes-red-dow/

We found his apparent doppleganger over doing a DIY growth fund on the forum recently.  Uncanny resemblance.  It would be fun to see if his picks work out though without jumping in to beat him up too badly, he could redeem any suspicions by letting everyone in on the good and bad outcomes of his attempts.  Mr. P was always missing big chunks of information and apparently never lost a nickel and that led everyone to believe he was just lying.  Maybe the new poster will just shoot straight and we can all learn.   

It's funny - the people that take the long, boring sure thing approach to investing always end up so much better off in the long run than the people that try to jump start their gains by 'gaming the system' or being a 'super smart active investor'. 

I mean, I guess it's statistically possible to time/beat the market.  But the odds are about the same as being struck by lightning.  While being eaten by sharks.

I kinda get it. In the vast majority of systems/fields in life, knowledge, experience, and talent will give you a consistent advantage over typical performance. Investing has all of the outward appearing features of systems, it just isn't. Some people have to learn that the hard way.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: MissNancyPryor on January 21, 2020, 03:00:22 PM
Maybe the new poster will just shoot straight and we can all learn.   

sure.
can I have some of whatever you are drinking please?

That was my obvious attempt to be overly niiiice so we can't be accused of being rude and having that thread locked by mods.  No fun if the babysitters take the ball away. 

Here, take a sip. 
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: UnleashHell on January 21, 2020, 03:03:23 PM
Maybe the new poster will just shoot straight and we can all learn.   

sure.
can I have some of whatever you are drinking please?

That was my obvious attempt to be overly niiiice so we can't be accused of being rude and having that thread locked by mods.  No fun if the babysitters take the ball away. 

Here, take a sip.

I know, I know. I've been poking the bear in that thread but I have to stop before I get brutally honest....


I'll sit on the sidelines and drink.... cheers.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: robartsd on January 23, 2020, 08:50:37 AM
I kinda get it. In the vast majority of systems/fields in life, knowledge, experience, and talent will give you a consistent advantage over typical performance. Investing has all of the outward appearing features of systems, it just isn't. Some people have to learn that the hard way.
The argument that convinced me that it wasn't worth trying was that there are plenty of people in control of billions of dollars worth of investments who work full time trying to find a way to beat the market and they are not successful more than half the time.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Tyson on January 23, 2020, 09:41:47 AM
I kinda get it. In the vast majority of systems/fields in life, knowledge, experience, and talent will give you a consistent advantage over typical performance. Investing has all of the outward appearing features of systems, it just isn't. Some people have to learn that the hard way.
The argument that convinced me that it wasn't worth trying was that there are plenty of people in control of billions of dollars worth of investments who work full time trying to find a way to beat the market and they are not successful more than half the time.

Yep, me too.  It reminds me of Vegas.  Plenty of people go to Vegas with an grand idea/scheme that's going to let them 'beat the odds' and clean up over all the other suckers. 

What they don't realize is that there are people FAR more sophisticated and dedicated to beating the system already out there and THOSE people aren't doing better than average, because the system has already accounted for them. 

In other words, stock picking is exactly the same - it's gambling.  You might win sometimes, but that's simply luck.  Most of the time you're going to lose, at least a little.  And sometimes you'll lose a lot. 

Faaaarrrrr better to just dump your money into an index fund & let it grow at it's boring, safe 9% rate over the long term.  People that try to game the system for higher returns are generally the real suckers.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: EliteZags on January 23, 2020, 04:42:42 PM
https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/89D3121A-DB8E-11E7-88B6-0CA5AD615D24 (https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/89D3121A-DB8E-11E7-88B6-0CA5AD615D24)
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: ender on January 28, 2020, 08:34:50 PM
This thread is famous now!

https://www.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/comments/ev7ij1/when_you_try_to_time_the_market_a_true_story/
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: FIRE 20/20 on January 28, 2020, 09:09:05 PM
https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/89D3121A-DB8E-11E7-88B6-0CA5AD615D24 (https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/89D3121A-DB8E-11E7-88B6-0CA5AD615D24)

The link isn't working for me.  Is it working for other people?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: dragoncar on January 29, 2020, 12:22:12 AM
https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/89D3121A-DB8E-11E7-88B6-0CA5AD615D24 (https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/89D3121A-DB8E-11E7-88B6-0CA5AD615D24)

The link isn't working for me.  Is it working for other people?

Works for me.. here's another version https://www.marketwatch.com/story/think-you-can-time-the-stock-market-look-at-this-chart-first-2017-12-08
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: mies on January 29, 2020, 04:26:44 AM
This thread is famous now!

https://www.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/comments/ev7ij1/when_you_try_to_time_the_market_a_true_story/

It looks like there are a lot of ďyeah, but...Ē replies in the reddit thread. I remember why I donít follow that sub anymore.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: solon on January 29, 2020, 10:34:11 AM
This thread is famous now!

https://www.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/comments/ev7ij1/when_you_try_to_time_the_market_a_true_story/

Which one of us is filmhamster? And is filming hamsters something to be proud of?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: FIRE 20/20 on January 29, 2020, 11:14:46 AM
https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/89D3121A-DB8E-11E7-88B6-0CA5AD615D24 (https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/89D3121A-DB8E-11E7-88B6-0CA5AD615D24)

The link isn't working for me.  Is it working for other people?

Works for me.. here's another version https://www.marketwatch.com/story/think-you-can-time-the-stock-market-look-at-this-chart-first-2017-12-08
Thanks!  That one worked.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: v8rx7guy on February 07, 2020, 03:51:27 PM
Welp, today is the one year anniversary of junioroldtimer's attempt at market timing.

junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th, 2019 at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 7, 2020 the closing price was $82.11, meaning that he had cost himself $12,965.62 after one year, plus $1,282.58 in dividends not paid is $14,248.20

I'll be back in a year for our next update.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: BicycleB on February 07, 2020, 04:14:01 PM
At some point, OP will become senioroldtimer.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Valhalla on February 11, 2020, 03:11:23 AM
If there's ANY proof that you can't time the market, the last few weeks / months have certainly been shockingly illuminating.

The stock market barely made a bump in regards to the US / Iranian hostilities.  Now the stock market seems to be barely nudging in reaction to coronavirus, which the media has hyped to be the zombie apocalypse overwhelming the world.

It seems investors / people are smarter than ever, and you can't really outsmart / outguess them even with overwhelming conviction that the market is going to crash due to these crazy events.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: ender on February 11, 2020, 06:08:26 AM
Well the media had a lot more to gain by sensationalizing everything than reporting actual, factual truths.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Tyson on February 11, 2020, 10:30:32 AM
If there's ANY proof that you can't time the market, the last few weeks / months have certainly been shockingly illuminating.

The stock market barely made a bump in regards to the US / Iranian hostilities.  Now the stock market seems to be barely nudging in reaction to coronavirus, which the media has hyped to be the zombie apocalypse overwhelming the world.

It seems investors / people are smarter than ever, and you can't really outsmart / outguess them even with overwhelming conviction that the market is going to crash due to these crazy events.

Yes, the stock market seems to be generally immune to world events, and that's been true historically as well:

(https://ritholtz.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/reasons.jpg)
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: DadJokes on February 11, 2020, 11:26:04 AM
I learned from that graph that the JFK assassination was good for the market, and the RFK assassination was bad for the market.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: appleshampooid on February 11, 2020, 12:46:31 PM
I learned from that graph that the JFK assassination was good for the market, and the RFK assassination was bad for the market.
I learned that the Vietnam war happened in 1973.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: TheHardenedInvestor on February 11, 2020, 02:13:33 PM
Welp, today is the one year anniversary of junioroldtimer's attempt at market timing.

junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th, 2019 at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Jan 7, 2020 the closing price was $82.11, meaning that he had cost himself $12,965.62 after one year, plus $1,282.58 in dividends not paid is $14,248.20

I'll be back in a year for our next update.

+1 for recap.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Mighty-Dollar on February 12, 2020, 02:22:55 AM
Face palm! I could have told the OP that the whole Trump / Russia collusion thing was a hoax that started because of Hilary Clinton's fake Russian dossier. Fox news and talk radio had been talking about this from DAY ONE!
And Trump would NEVER be impeached either. It would spell the death of the Republican party if enough Republican senators voted to impeach Trump. But the media hypes this nonsense because the media is in bed with the dems.
The lesson learned is that the mainstream media is lying to you. It's all democrat party propaganda. If you watch or read ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC, CNN, NY Times, Washington Post, etc then you are being fed left-wing propaganda.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: dragoncar on February 12, 2020, 03:06:47 AM
Even if a crazed lunatic like Bernie Sanders becomes president, congress still has to approve his crazed budget. I think there would be a stock market correction if a democrat got elected, especially a socialist. Wall Street is not stupid. When it comes to people and their money, political propaganda (ex- OrangeManBad) takes a back seat. The smart money knows that Trump is great for business.
Just look at what he's done: Rolling back regulations, getting the corporate tax down from 35% to 21%, and just plain improving company willingness to invest, expand, etc because Trump is business-friendly. Stocks will go up after Trump wins, much like stocks went up after the 2016 election.

Face palm! I could have told the OP that the whole Trump / Russia collusion thing was a hoax that started because of Hilary Clinton's fake Russian dossier. Fox news and talk radio had been talking about this from DAY ONE!
And Trump would NEVER be impeached either. It would spell the death of the Republican party if enough Republican senators voted to impeach Trump. But the media hypes this nonsense because the media is in bed with the dems.
The lesson learned is that the mainstream media is lying to you. It's all democrat party propaganda. If you watch or read ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC, CNN, NY Times, Washington Post, etc then you are being fed left-wing propaganda.

I'd like to subscribe to your satire newsletter
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: mies on February 12, 2020, 03:40:00 AM
Even if a crazed lunatic like Bernie Sanders becomes president, congress still has to approve his crazed budget. I think there would be a stock market correction if a democrat got elected, especially a socialist. Wall Street is not stupid. When it comes to people and their money, political propaganda (ex- OrangeManBad) takes a back seat. The smart money knows that Trump is great for business.
Just look at what he's done: Rolling back regulations, getting the corporate tax down from 35% to 21%, and just plain improving company willingness to invest, expand, etc because Trump is business-friendly. Stocks will go up after Trump wins, much like stocks went up after the 2016 election.

Face palm! I could have told the OP that the whole Trump / Russia collusion thing was a hoax that started because of Hilary Clinton's fake Russian dossier. Fox news and talk radio had been talking about this from DAY ONE!
And Trump would NEVER be impeached either. It would spell the death of the Republican party if enough Republican senators voted to impeach Trump. But the media hypes this nonsense because the media is in bed with the dems.
The lesson learned is that the mainstream media is lying to you. It's all democrat party propaganda. If you watch or read ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC, CNN, NY Times, Washington Post, etc then you are being fed left-wing propaganda.

I'd like to subscribe to your satire newsletter

Iím sure if you ask nicely, heíll add your email address to the conspiracy chain emails he forwards everyone.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: jeroly on February 12, 2020, 04:27:26 AM
Face palm! I could have told the OP that the whole Trump / Russia collusion thing was a hoax that started because of Hilary Clinton's fake Russian dossier. Fox news and talk radio had been talking about this from DAY ONE!
And Trump would NEVER be impeached either. It would spell the death of the Republican party if enough Republican senators voted to impeach Trump. But the media hypes this nonsense because the media is in bed with the dems.
The lesson learned is that the mainstream media is lying to you. It's all democrat party propaganda. If you watch or read ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC, CNN, NY Times, Washington Post, etc then you are being fed left-wing propaganda.
+1 to all of this...as you are probably aware, reality has a well-known liberal bias.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: UnleashHell on February 12, 2020, 07:12:49 AM
Face palm! I could have told the OP that the whole Trump / Russia collusion thing was a hoax that started because of Hilary Clinton's fake Russian dossier. Fox news and talk radio had been talking about this from DAY ONE!
And Trump would NEVER be impeached either. It would spell the death of the Republican party if enough Republican senators voted to impeach Trump. But the media hypes this nonsense because the media is in bed with the dems.
The lesson learned is that the mainstream media is lying to you. It's all democrat party propaganda. If you watch or read ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC, CNN, NY Times, Washington Post, etc then you are being fed left-wing propaganda.

all those business are all in favour of the democrats. whose fiscal policies who probably hurt them.

ok them.


its not you - its all the others.


Lucky we have Murdoch to show us the light.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: GuitarStv on February 12, 2020, 09:41:10 AM
Even if a crazed lunatic like Bernie Sanders becomes president, congress still has to approve his crazed budget. I think there would be a stock market correction if a democrat got elected, especially a socialist. Wall Street is not stupid. When it comes to people and their money, political propaganda (ex- OrangeManBad) takes a back seat. The smart money knows that Trump is great for business.
Just look at what he's done: Rolling back regulations, getting the corporate tax down from 35% to 21%, and just plain improving company willingness to invest, expand, etc because Trump is business-friendly. Stocks will go up after Trump wins, much like stocks went up after the 2016 election.

Face palm! I could have told the OP that the whole Trump / Russia collusion thing was a hoax that started because of Hilary Clinton's fake Russian dossier. Fox news and talk radio had been talking about this from DAY ONE!
And Trump would NEVER be impeached either. It would spell the death of the Republican party if enough Republican senators voted to impeach Trump. But the media hypes this nonsense because the media is in bed with the dems.
The lesson learned is that the mainstream media is lying to you. It's all democrat party propaganda. If you watch or read ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC, CNN, NY Times, Washington Post, etc then you are being fed left-wing propaganda.

I'd like to subscribe to your satire newsletter

He forgot to blame Obama.  And I didn't hear a word about Benghazi.  As far as tin-foil hat rants go, this is like a 5/10 at best . . . doesn't feel like his heart is really in it.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: HBFIRE on February 12, 2020, 02:43:43 PM
He's spot on though.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: dividendman on February 12, 2020, 09:49:32 PM
Even if a crazed lunatic like Bernie Sanders becomes president, congress still has to approve his crazed budget. I think there would be a stock market correction if a democrat got elected, especially a socialist. Wall Street is not stupid. When it comes to people and their money, political propaganda (ex- OrangeManBad) takes a back seat. The smart money knows that Trump is great for business.
Just look at what he's done: Rolling back regulations, getting the corporate tax down from 35% to 21%, and just plain improving company willingness to invest, expand, etc because Trump is business-friendly. Stocks will go up after Trump wins, much like stocks went up after the 2016 election.

Are you really arguing stock market performance can be tied to the "goodness" of the economic policy of the president who presides over them?

If we look at the last 100 years or so I guess my ol' pal Coolidge is the winner with a run up of over 230% in his tenure. Clinton was over 220% too. Obama had a 150% run. Reagan's market was up about 148%. FDR had over 200% run up (and probably implemented the most government programs and control over the US economy than any other president, though he was in office 12 years instead of 4 or 8).

Eisenhower, Johnson, Kennedy, George H.W. Bush and Truman all had decent showings. With Ike leading this pack at an over 100% gain.

Under Trump the market is up about 50%.

Under Nixon, George W. Bush, and Carter the market declined, but Nixon and Bush's declines were over 20% while Carter's was almost flat at a decline of 0.7%. Poor Hoover had the worst performance with an 80% decline on his watch.

Seems that there is no real pattern with the how far left or right on the free market a President was to stock performance during their tenure.

(Numbers are the increase/decrease in the DJIA over the term(s) of the president).
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: ChpBstrd on February 13, 2020, 08:23:32 AM
Thereís also a big difference between quality of life and corporate profitability.

A government with our best interests at heart might tax the shite out of cigarettes, alcohol, smartphones, gasoline, fast food, and sugar, and then raise the maximum Roth IRA contribution to $25k/year. This would direct some marginal consumption out of destructive products and towards retirement savings, but it would also reduce corporate profits for everyone from farmers to shippers to retailers, and decrease economic growth. Life would get better, but stocks would go down.

Likewise, if we told our political leaders that ALL we want is a strong economy with fat corporate profits, the logical way to achieve that goal might be to wage a (non-nuclear) war somewhere, cut off all public assistance so that people must work or starve, eliminate weekends, reduce wages, rollback enviro rules, allow monopolies and duopolies to exist and extract maximum profits, and lower corporate taxes to the point we have trillion dollar govt deficits which appear on corporate income statements as trillion dollar profits. The stock market might go up, but we would spend most of our daylight hours working in a daily struggle to pay for things.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: DadJokes on February 13, 2020, 08:27:36 AM
Well this educational thread has now jumped the shark by diving into politics.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Scandium on February 13, 2020, 08:38:16 AM
wage a (non-nuclear) war somewhere, cut off all public assistance so that people must work or starve, eliminate weekends, reduce wages, rollback enviro rules, allow monopolies and duopolies to exist and extract maximum profits, and lower corporate taxes to the point we have trillion dollar govt deficits which appear on corporate income statements as trillion dollar profits. The stock market might go up, but we would spend most of our daylight hours working in a daily struggle to pay for things.

Low effort posting just stealing the Republican party platform like that.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: HBFIRE on February 13, 2020, 08:58:50 AM
Even if a crazed lunatic like Bernie Sanders becomes president, congress still has to approve his crazed budget. I think there would be a stock market correction if a democrat got elected, especially a socialist. Wall Street is not stupid. When it comes to people and their money, political propaganda (ex- OrangeManBad) takes a back seat. The smart money knows that Trump is great for business.
Just look at what he's done: Rolling back regulations, getting the corporate tax down from 35% to 21%, and just plain improving company willingness to invest, expand, etc because Trump is business-friendly. Stocks will go up after Trump wins, much like stocks went up after the 2016 election.

Are you really arguing stock market performance can be tied to the "goodness" of the economic policy of the president who presides over them?

If we look at the last 100 years or so I guess my ol' pal Coolidge is the winner with a run up of over 230% in his tenure. Clinton was over 220% too. Obama had a 150% run. Reagan's market was up about 148%. FDR had over 200% run up (and probably implemented the most government programs and control over the US economy than any other president, though he was in office 12 years instead of 4 or 8).

Eisenhower, Johnson, Kennedy, George H.W. Bush and Truman all had decent showings. With Ike leading this pack at an over 100% gain.

Under Trump the market is up about 50%.

Under Nixon, George W. Bush, and Carter the market declined, but Nixon and Bush's declines were over 20% while Carter's was almost flat at a decline of 0.7%. Poor Hoover had the worst performance with an 80% decline on his watch.

Seems that there is no real pattern with the how far left or right on the free market a President was to stock performance during their tenure.

(Numbers are the increase/decrease in the DJIA over the term(s) of the president).

Context matters.  Coming out of a recession, coming out of a bull market, extending an expansion beyond what should happen, etc.  The market has traditionally reacted favorably to pro business policies in relation to the current situation of the time.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Tyson on February 13, 2020, 11:57:38 AM
Even if a crazed lunatic like Bernie Sanders becomes president, congress still has to approve his crazed budget. I think there would be a stock market correction if a democrat got elected, especially a socialist. Wall Street is not stupid. When it comes to people and their money, political propaganda (ex- OrangeManBad) takes a back seat. The smart money knows that Trump is great for business.
Just look at what he's done: Rolling back regulations, getting the corporate tax down from 35% to 21%, and just plain improving company willingness to invest, expand, etc because Trump is business-friendly. Stocks will go up after Trump wins, much like stocks went up after the 2016 election.

Are you really arguing stock market performance can be tied to the "goodness" of the economic policy of the president who presides over them?

If we look at the last 100 years or so I guess my ol' pal Coolidge is the winner with a run up of over 230% in his tenure. Clinton was over 220% too. Obama had a 150% run. Reagan's market was up about 148%. FDR had over 200% run up (and probably implemented the most government programs and control over the US economy than any other president, though he was in office 12 years instead of 4 or 8).

Eisenhower, Johnson, Kennedy, George H.W. Bush and Truman all had decent showings. With Ike leading this pack at an over 100% gain.

Under Trump the market is up about 50%.

Under Nixon, George W. Bush, and Carter the market declined, but Nixon and Bush's declines were over 20% while Carter's was almost flat at a decline of 0.7%. Poor Hoover had the worst performance with an 80% decline on his watch.

Seems that there is no real pattern with the how far left or right on the free market a President was to stock performance during their tenure.

(Numbers are the increase/decrease in the DJIA over the term(s) of the president).

Context matters.  Coming out of a recession, coming out of a bull market, extending an expansion beyond what should happen, etc.  The market has traditionally reacted favorably to pro business policies in relation to the current situation of the time.

I love how when the facts agree with someone's prior ideas, they are all "The data speaks for itself!" and when the data does NOT match up to their prior ideas, it's all "Well, context matters!". 

One truth that transcends ALL facts is:  Top Is In.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: HBFIRE on February 13, 2020, 12:02:09 PM

I love how when the facts agree with someone's prior ideas, they are all "The data speaks for itself!" and when the data does NOT match up to their prior ideas, it's all "Well, context matters!". 

One truth that transcends ALL facts is:  Top Is In.

I don't think I did that here, I'm merely pointing out that context matters, which should be obvious.  You're making a strawman logical fallacy.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Tyson on February 13, 2020, 01:01:21 PM

I love how when the facts agree with someone's prior ideas, they are all "The data speaks for itself!" and when the data does NOT match up to their prior ideas, it's all "Well, context matters!". 

One truth that transcends ALL facts is:  Top Is In.

I don't think I did that here, I'm merely pointing out that context matters, which should be obvious.  You're making a strawman logical fallacy.

It's not directed specifically at you.  Just an observation of behavior I've seen in people that are data/facts driven.  Which it's GOOD to be data/facts driven, but even then it doesn't mean we don't have blind spots.  This is one pattern I've seen in this particular population.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: ender on February 13, 2020, 05:03:20 PM
wtf happened to this thread
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: dragoncar on February 13, 2020, 06:09:07 PM
wtf happened to this thread

Make this thread great again!
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: dividendman on February 13, 2020, 09:59:38 PM
Even if a crazed lunatic like Bernie Sanders becomes president, congress still has to approve his crazed budget. I think there would be a stock market correction if a democrat got elected, especially a socialist. Wall Street is not stupid. When it comes to people and their money, political propaganda (ex- OrangeManBad) takes a back seat. The smart money knows that Trump is great for business.
Just look at what he's done: Rolling back regulations, getting the corporate tax down from 35% to 21%, and just plain improving company willingness to invest, expand, etc because Trump is business-friendly. Stocks will go up after Trump wins, much like stocks went up after the 2016 election.

Are you really arguing stock market performance can be tied to the "goodness" of the economic policy of the president who presides over them?

If we look at the last 100 years or so I guess my ol' pal Coolidge is the winner with a run up of over 230% in his tenure. Clinton was over 220% too. Obama had a 150% run. Reagan's market was up about 148%. FDR had over 200% run up (and probably implemented the most government programs and control over the US economy than any other president, though he was in office 12 years instead of 4 or 8).

Eisenhower, Johnson, Kennedy, George H.W. Bush and Truman all had decent showings. With Ike leading this pack at an over 100% gain.

Under Trump the market is up about 50%.

Under Nixon, George W. Bush, and Carter the market declined, but Nixon and Bush's declines were over 20% while Carter's was almost flat at a decline of 0.7%. Poor Hoover had the worst performance with an 80% decline on his watch.

Seems that there is no real pattern with the how far left or right on the free market a President was to stock performance during their tenure.

(Numbers are the increase/decrease in the DJIA over the term(s) of the president).

Context matters.  Coming out of a recession, coming out of a bull market, extending an expansion beyond what should happen, etc.  The market has traditionally reacted favorably to pro business policies in relation to the current situation of the time.

I agree it matters, but which way? Did Trump "extend an expansion beyond what should happen"? Or was it his policies and tax cuts that did it? Is he just riding the benefits of the policies of his predecessor?

Did tax increases and government spending under FDR help the economy in the long run that allowed all future presidents to ride those coattails? Or did he just luck out after the great depression and a massive economy expanding war and his policies actually hamstrung future presidents?

Did social security help or hurt the country economically?

I think making any causal relationship between stock market performance and the current presidential policies isn't possible because context matters, but also because we don't know the lasting implications of many policies on the economy and stock market until a president or two or ten later.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: talltexan on February 17, 2020, 08:44:16 AM
I think that the expectation of something like TCJA drove the market higher from Nov. 2016 to Dec. 2017.

Then TCJA was passed and we got further increases. that was a policy that was pretty transparently about increasing the profitability of corporations, including ones that are publicly traded.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: ChpBstrd on February 17, 2020, 02:13:56 PM
I think that the expectation of something like TCJA drove the market higher from Nov. 2016 to Dec. 2017.

Then TCJA was passed and we got further increases. that was a policy that was pretty transparently about increasing the profitability of corporations, including ones that are publicly traded.

Then there's the expansion of PE ratios. The S&P 500's PE ratio expanded from 23.35 in 11/2016 to about 25.43 today, a gain of 8.9% before we even factor in earnings growth from tax cuts, etc.

https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio/table/by-month (https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio/table/by-month)
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Full_Beard on February 27, 2020, 06:57:34 PM
With regard to presidents, I would note that looking at their tenure doesn't give the whole picture since they inherit policies and pass them on. That is, any analysis that looks only at what the stock market did from the day they took office until the day they left does not, I think in anyone's view, provide a fair picture. Where to cut that off (6 months, 9 months, 1 year) is also interminably debatable. Further, Congress has a strong role in the matter, so it's hard to pin it on the president only. I think if you teased out situations when the President's party aligned with the House and Senate and then factor in predecessor policy overlap, maybe you could find some trend on political party and success of stocks. But, whatever one produced would be vulnerable because it's going to be imperfect.

Back to the point of timing the market, I think if one were to say that they were concerned because our country was cutting taxes and, with a rising economy, not cutting the national debt and therefore he was going to go more conservative on his investments, despite otherwise strong indicators, I would nonetheless say that's a legitimate point. But, I recognize that someone could also make a legitimate counter point -- trying to time the market for most is folly.

The OP may, in hindsight come 2021, have made a wise play. Or not.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: v8rx7guy on February 27, 2020, 07:12:09 PM
wtf happened to this thread

Make this thread great again!

We hit the one year mark.  So now it is a yearly revisit from me to update unless someone else takes over.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Joe Schmo on February 27, 2020, 07:59:54 PM
Two more days and heís breaking even??!!??!!
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: HBFIRE on February 27, 2020, 08:37:25 PM
Two more days and heís breaking even??!!??!!

Very well could, if it drops another 11% or so into bear market.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Mr Mark on February 27, 2020, 09:11:32 PM
this reminds me of why I have 30% bonds...


Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: HBFIRE on February 27, 2020, 09:38:51 PM
this reminds me of why I have 30% bonds...

I carry about 10% in bonds.  But then I also have about 200 K in my business (liquid) and then a years worth of expenses in a 3.3% account, so that's enough of a ballast for me.  What's the Buffet saying again?  When the tide goes out we'll see who's swimming naked.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Full_Beard on February 27, 2020, 11:41:02 PM
892.9490 shares sold at $67.59 each for a total of $60,354.42.

Very well could, if it drops another 11% or so into bear market.

VTSAX closed today at $73.76. So, he's now 8.36% shy of his original sale price. What he did with the cash from the sale for the last 12 months is relevant too. But, he may be close to the true break even point, if not the mathematical break even point that assumes he just sat on his cash since the sale.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: HamsterStache on February 28, 2020, 07:29:32 AM
But, he may be close to the true break even point

But not really for reasons related to his original reasoning unless he thinks Russia and/or Trump created the virus...
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Full_Beard on February 28, 2020, 08:48:38 AM
But, he may be close to the true break even point

But not really for reasons related to his original reasoning unless he thinks Russia and/or Trump created the virus...

Haha and true, though not that important for purposes of tracking whether it was a good financial move.

And, I personally don't think the continued correction is entirely about coronavirus. The stock market is overinflated (and has been). The coronavirus' risk to global markets precipitated the correction. If that's the only factor, it should stop, settle, and readjust. If other factors are in play, it may not.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: American GenX on February 28, 2020, 09:02:24 AM
But, he may be close to the true break even point

But not really for reasons related to his original reasoning unless he thinks Russia and/or Trump created the virus...

Haha and true, though not that important for purposes of tracking whether it was a good financial move.

And, I personally don't think the continued correction is entirely about coronavirus. The stock market is overinflated (and has been). The coronavirus' risk to global markets precipitated the correction. If that's the only factor, it should stop, settle, and readjust. If other factors are in play, it may not.

OTOH, something like this global COVID-19 outbreak could be enough to kick us into a recession, despite what stock market valuations are.  In that case, it could be a long recovery after the market finally finds its bottom.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: moof on February 28, 2020, 10:54:41 AM
this reminds me of why I have 30% bonds...
In the vein of timing the market I am around 20% in bonds (going up percentage wise every day).  Basically with valuations in nose-bleed range and my Fire date now less than 5 years away I moved from ~90/10 to 80/20 over the summer.  Now I'm siting here wondering when to move to 100% stocks.  Probably going to wait another week or two in hopes things drop more before I pull the trigger.  Knowing my own luck I will be kicking myself at some future date no matter what I do, oh well.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: dragoncar on February 28, 2020, 01:52:48 PM
this reminds me of why I have 30% bonds...
In the vein of timing the market I am around 20% in bonds (going up percentage wise every day).  Basically with valuations in nose-bleed range and my Fire date now less than 5 years away I moved from ~90/10 to 80/20 over the summer.  Now I'm siting here wondering when to move to 100% stocks.  Probably going to wait another week or two in hopes things drop more before I pull the trigger.  Knowing my own luck I will be kicking myself at some future date no matter what I do, oh well.

Probably better to move into 100% stonks after retirement.  You accidentally did a bond tent so just enjoy the shade
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: YoungGranny on March 02, 2020, 06:59:28 AM
junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11 after one week of trying to time the market.
On Feb 22 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $1,866.26 after two weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 01 the closing price was $70.28, meaning that he had cost himself $2,402.03 after three weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 08 the closing price was $68.62, meaning that he had cost himself $919.73 after four weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 15 the closing price was $70.56, meaning that he had cost himself $2,652.05 after five weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 22 the closing price was $69.49, meaning that he had cost himself $1,696.60 after six weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,030.21.
On Mar 29 the closing price was $70.43, meaning that he had cost himself $2,535.97 after seven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,869.58.
On Apr 05 the closing price was $71.94, meaning that he had cost himself $3,884.32 after eight weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,217.94.
On Apr 12 the closing price was $72.35, meaning that he had cost himself $4,250.43 after nine weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,584.04.
On Apr 19 the closing price was $72.16, meaning that he had cost himself $4,080.77 after ten weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4412.38.
On Apr 26 the closing price was $73.09, meaning that he had cost himself $4,911.21 after eleven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $5,244.82.
On Jul 24 the closing price was $74.55, meaning that he had cost himself $6,214.93 after twenty three weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $6,784.90
On Aug 15 the closing price was $70.64, meaning that he had cost himself $2,723.49 after twenty six weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $3,293.46
On Sep 3 the closing price was $72.04, meaning that he had cost himself $3,973.62 after thirty weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $4,543.59
On Oct 25 the closing price was $74.71, meaning that he had cost himself $6,357.80 after thirty seven weeks, plus $899.59 in dividends not paid is $7,257.39
On Nov 15 the closing price was $76.60, meaning that he had cost himself $8,045.47 after forty weeks, plus $899.59 in dividends not paid is $8,945.06
On Dec 3 the closing price was $77.31, meaning that he had cost himself $8,679.46 after forty weeks, plus $899.59 in dividends not paid is $9,579.05
On Dec 27 the closing price was $79.88, meaning that he had cost himself $10,974.34 after forty six weeks, plus $1,282.58 in dividends not paid is $12,256.92
On Jan 11 the closing price was $81.95, meaning that he had cost himself $12,822.75 after forty nine weeks, plus $1,282.58 in dividends not paid is $14,105.33
On Feb 28, 2020 the closing price was $73.13, meaning that he had cost himself $4,946.94 after fifty six weeks, plus $1,282.58 in dividends not paid is $6,229.52.

This means OP would have had annualized earnings of 7.58% if he stayed in the market.

After the market losses last week I was curious to see if the OP decision (made for different reasons) paid off or not but it doesn't look like we've hit that point just yet.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: waltworks on March 02, 2020, 10:22:15 AM
It is going to be really interesting to see if OP can manage to break even on this... I'm still personally predicting no, but who knows?

-W
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: BicycleB on March 03, 2020, 09:42:56 AM
If the market drops enough that OP could break even, the question becomes: Will OP choose to get back in the market, or not?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: v8rx7guy on March 03, 2020, 09:54:25 AM
It is going to be really interesting to see if OP can manage to break even on this... I'm still personally predicting no, but who knows?

-W

Most of the time there will be a drop to the point you can get back in at a break even.  It's that one time where it never drop back down that spoils the plan of a market timer...
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Full_Beard on March 03, 2020, 12:36:13 PM
It is going to be really interesting to see if OP can manage to break even on this... I'm still personally predicting no, but who knows?

-W
You mean break even on purely on price/dividends of VTSAX on the assumption that he kept his money in 0% returning cash? If he converted it to Vanguard's total bond market fund (VVTLX), his $60K would be up over 11% at the end of February 2020. My point is we'll never know exactly what his break even point is unless he tells us what he did with his $60K. But, if the exercise is merely about whether/when VTSAX will return to its price at the close of markets on 2/7/19, then carry on.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: v8rx7guy on March 03, 2020, 12:43:55 PM
^ Here is a quote from page 1.  "Going to cash"

So what are you doing to time the market?  Just going to cash?  All or just some % of your portfolio?

If you really believe in a big sell off put some $ into the ProShares Short S&P 500 Inverse ETF ticker SH.

Yes, going back to cash for now.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: waltworks on March 03, 2020, 01:20:28 PM
You mean break even on purely on price/dividends of VTSAX on the assumption that he kept his money in 0% returning cash? If he converted it to Vanguard's total bond market fund (VVTLX), his $60K would be up over 11% at the end of February 2020. My point is we'll never know exactly what his break even point is unless he tells us what he did with his $60K. But, if the exercise is merely about whether/when VTSAX will return to its price at the close of markets on 2/7/19, then carry on.

There are tons of strategies (lever up on Tesla!) that would have beaten buy/hold. So what?

OP said "cash". You could maybe be generous and assume t-bonds or a CD or something, but you can't assume s/he bought bonds, because they specifically said "cash".

Regardless, OP isn't reading this anymore probably. So it's just for entertainment at this stage.

-W
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Full_Beard on March 03, 2020, 01:55:49 PM
I'm certainly not making any assumptions about what he did. And all he said was:  I'm going to cash for now. Maybe he stayed in cash, maybe he bought a bond fund. I could care less, but I can't imagine someone interested in investing, let alone timing markets, would just sit on cash for 12 months. I wouldn't.

Right now, it looks like he was prescient. Tomorrow, maybe not. It's a rapidly changing question.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Davnasty on March 03, 2020, 02:32:30 PM
I'm certainly not making any assumptions about what he did. And all he said was:  I'm going to cash for now. Maybe he stayed in cash, maybe he bought a bond fund. I could care less, but I can't imagine someone interested in investing, let alone timing markets, would just sit on cash for 12 months. I wouldn't.

Right now, it looks like he was prescient. Tomorrow, maybe not. It's a rapidly changing question.

Strange conclusion

I think the sitting president is going to be impeached and there's going to be a knock-down, drag-out fight in which the markets temporarily plummet as all this Russia stuff comes to light.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Full_Beard on March 03, 2020, 02:52:20 PM
Ha, I was referring to his market timing. Did anyone take his political predictions seriously?

But, the president was indeed impeached and Congress' sh't show was a knock-down, drag-out fight (maybe perspectives differ on that latter part).
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: v8rx7guy on March 03, 2020, 02:55:53 PM
Ha, I was referring to his market timing. Did anyone take his political predictions seriously?

But, the president was indeed impeached and Congress' sh't show was a knock-down, drag-out fight (maybe perspectives differ on that latter part).

I personally think the OP was one of the high percentage of Americans that believed that impeachment always meant removal from office.  "Knock down, Drag out fight" was referring to Trump refusing to leave office.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Davnasty on March 03, 2020, 02:56:13 PM
Ha, I was referring to his market timing. Did anyone take his political predictions seriously?

But, the president was indeed impeached and Congress' sh't show was a knock-down, drag-out fight (maybe perspectives differ on that latter part).

True, but the key part of their prediction was that these events would cause markets to temporarily plummet.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Full_Beard on March 03, 2020, 03:19:43 PM
Not disputing any of that. Whatever logic or lack thereof lay underneath the OP's reasons for selling, this thread has mostly tracked that purely from a single market transaction - sell on 2/7 and watch the daily price of VTSAX mostly go up until last week.

Anyone else here get 100% out of equities in 2019 and, if so, what were your reasons?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: dragoncar on March 03, 2020, 04:07:10 PM
Not disputing any of that. Whatever logic or lack thereof lay underneath the OP's reasons for selling, this thread has mostly tracked that purely from a single market transaction - sell on 2/7 and watch the daily price of VTSAX mostly go up until last week.

Anyone else here get 100% out of equities in 2019 and, if so, what were your reasons?

I sold everything on a hot tip that the Illuminati would be dropping COVID-19
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Stamag on March 04, 2020, 07:43:59 AM
I love this thread.  I've been following for about a year now.  I feel like it's a real life example of why not timing the market is good advice.  The OP did successfully predict that there would be a market drop relatively soon.  Even with that, after a year of market prominence OP has missed out on gains.  Of course there could be deeper recessions to come, only time will tell.

Thanks to the OP for posting his numbers and people like @YoungGranny for giving updates
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: frugalnacho on March 04, 2020, 11:58:54 AM
It is going to be really interesting to see if OP can manage to break even on this... I'm still personally predicting no, but who knows?

-W

Most of the time there will be a drop to the point you can get back in at a break even.  It's that one time where it never drop back down that spoils the plan of a market timer...

I don't think that is true.  I don't have any data to back up this claim, but a quick look at a graph of stock market prices shows a pretty steady upward march in prices.  Even with a crystal ball where you know all future stock prices there are an abundance of all-time-highs (at the time) that are quickly surpassed never to be seen again.  Even the graph of stock prices is slightly misleading since it's not including reinvested dividends, which skews the data even more in favor of never being able to break even. 
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Full_Beard on March 04, 2020, 12:59:12 PM
I don't think that is true.  I don't have any data to back up this claim, but a quick look at a graph of stock market prices shows a pretty steady upward march in prices.  Even with a crystal ball where you know all future stock prices there are an abundance of all-time-highs (at the time) that are quickly surpassed never to be seen again.  Even the graph of stock prices is slightly misleading since it's not including reinvested dividends, which skews the data even more in favor of never being able to break even.
Well, this thread will give us one data point. I think, in the world of market timing propositions, the OP sold at a reasonable time (in terms of calculated guesses). So, it will be interesting to see whether VTSAX ever dips to a point where he could buy back in and break even or better.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Tyson on March 04, 2020, 01:06:06 PM
I don't think that is true.  I don't have any data to back up this claim, but a quick look at a graph of stock market prices shows a pretty steady upward march in prices.  Even with a crystal ball where you know all future stock prices there are an abundance of all-time-highs (at the time) that are quickly surpassed never to be seen again.  Even the graph of stock prices is slightly misleading since it's not including reinvested dividends, which skews the data even more in favor of never being able to break even.
Well, this thread will give us one data point. I think, in the world of market timing propositions, the OP sold at a reasonable time (in terms of calculated guesses). So, it will be interesting to see whether VTSAX ever dips to a point where he could buy back in and break even or better.

The point of market timing is to do BETTER than just leaving it in.  So far the OP hasn't even accomplished that.  And it's doubtful he ever will. At this point, more drops are required for him to just break even. 

In other words, the OP took on extra risk by taking that money out and didn't even manage to beat the index.  Plus, cashing out was certainly not a tax neutral action, so even "breaking even" isn't enough.  The market has to drop below the original sell price in order for the OP to even hope to recoup the original capital plus the costs of cashing out. 

It's a crappy situation to be in, and a strong reason to never time the market.  All this stress and worry has been added to the OP's world and for what?  For less than zero, it turns out.  Jeez.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: dragoncar on March 04, 2020, 01:19:17 PM
I don't think that is true.  I don't have any data to back up this claim, but a quick look at a graph of stock market prices shows a pretty steady upward march in prices.  Even with a crystal ball where you know all future stock prices there are an abundance of all-time-highs (at the time) that are quickly surpassed never to be seen again.  Even the graph of stock prices is slightly misleading since it's not including reinvested dividends, which skews the data even more in favor of never being able to break even.
Well, this thread will give us one data point. I think, in the world of market timing propositions, the OP sold at a reasonable time (in terms of calculated guesses). So, it will be interesting to see whether VTSAX ever dips to a point where he could buy back in and break even or better.

The point of market timing is to do BETTER than just leaving it in.  So far the OP hasn't even accomplished that.  And it's doubtful he ever will. At this point, more drops are required for him to just break even. 

In other words, the OP took on extra risk by taking that money out and didn't even manage to beat the index.  Plus, cashing out was certainly not a tax neutral action, so even "breaking even" isn't enough.  The market has to drop below the original sell price in order for the OP to even hope to recoup the original capital plus the costs of cashing out. 

It's a crappy situation to be in, and a strong reason to never time the market.  All this stress and worry has been added to the OP's world and for what?  For less than zero, it turns out.  Jeez.

I wouldnít call it MORE risk, itís a different kind of risk.  He reduced his volatility risk to zero, which is the most common definition of risk.  He did increase underperformance risk, or FOMO risk.. not sure what itís called

Iím not a market timer but there are good reasons to reduce risk in a strategic way
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Full_Beard on March 04, 2020, 03:50:05 PM
I agree. He didn't take on extra risk, he sought to minimize his risk at a time when lots thought (and still think) stocks are inflated. And I personally agree with that assessment (and, superficially, it's supported by the Schiller PE ratio). It's a different question, however, as to whether one should do anything about it (most say no) or whether one should partially diversity (personal, fact-specific question that one might take irrespective of price of stocks).

And again, we don't know what he did with the $60K in cash. Let it ride on Tesla (doubtful), put it in a bond fund (what I would have done), nada, or something else (maybe he even bought back in at 70 and cut his lost opportunity costs). We may never know.

And, I personally am not convinced the VTSAX won't dip below 67 before 2022. Volatility these past 2 weeks looks like a crayon drawing by a 4-year old. Am I going to bet that it will dip to those levels? No, I've got years to ride out the waves. But I see plenty of reasons to justify a market timing experiment, even after acknowledging that they're generally ill-advised and unsuccessful. I watch this thread with academic interest.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Tyson on March 04, 2020, 04:03:47 PM
I agree. He didn't take on extra risk, he sought to minimize his risk at a time when lots thought (and still think) stocks are inflated. And I personally agree with that assessment (and, superficially, it's supported by the Schiller PE ratio). It's a different question, however, as to whether one should do anything about it (most say no) or whether one should partially diversity (personal, fact-specific question that one might take irrespective of price of stocks).

And again, we don't know what he did with the $60K in cash. Let it ride on Tesla (doubtful), put it in a bond fund (what I would have done), nada, or something else (maybe he even bought back in at 70 and cut his lost opportunity costs). We may never know.

And, I personally am not convinced the VTSAX won't dip below 67 before 2022. Volatility these past 2 weeks looks like a crayon drawing by a 4-year old. Am I going to bet that it will dip to those levels? No, I've got years to ride out the waves. But I see plenty of reasons to justify a market timing experiment, even after acknowledging that they're generally ill-advised and unsuccessful. I watch this thread with academic interest.

It seems to me that diversification is a good thing and should already be done as part of your overall investing strategy.  Making changes "on the fly" is a really bad idea, if your basic investing approach is already sound. 

For example, I'm 80% stocks and 20% bonds, and within the stocks I'm 70% US and 30% World.  So I agree with you, diversification is important.  BUT, it's not something to monkey with based on what the freaking market is doing.  That's almost a guarantee to allow emotion to sway your decision making (usually fear). 

And if a person is still in the accumulation phase, then stock volatility doesn't even matter.  The ONLY scenario where it would is if it quickly drops and then stays low for a long time or has a very slow recovery. 

But EVEN THEN, lets say you only get 5% return from stocks vs. the usual 9%.  5% is still better than your other investing options.  So again, I just don't understand people wanting to dance in and out of the market.  It's madness.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Radagast on March 04, 2020, 09:21:10 PM
I agree. He didn't take on extra risk, he sought to minimize his risk at a time when lots thought (and still think) stocks are inflated. And I personally agree with that assessment (and, superficially, it's supported by the Schiller PE ratio). It's a different question, however, as to whether one should do anything about it (most say no) or whether one should partially diversity (personal, fact-specific question that one might take irrespective of price of stocks).

And again, we don't know what he did with the $60K in cash. Let it ride on Tesla (doubtful), put it in a bond fund (what I would have done), nada, or something else (maybe he even bought back in at 70 and cut his lost opportunity costs). We may never know.

And, I personally am not convinced the VTSAX won't dip below 67 before 2022. Volatility these past 2 weeks looks like a crayon drawing by a 4-year old. Am I going to bet that it will dip to those levels? No, I've got years to ride out the waves. But I see plenty of reasons to justify a market timing experiment, even after acknowledging that they're generally ill-advised and unsuccessful. I watch this thread with academic interest.

It seems to me that diversification is a good thing and should already be done as part of your overall investing strategy.  Making changes "on the fly" is a really bad idea, if your basic investing approach is already sound. 

For example, I'm 80% stocks and 20% bonds, and within the stocks I'm 70% US and 30% World.  So I agree with you, diversification is important.  BUT, it's not something to monkey with based on what the freaking market is doing.  That's almost a guarantee to allow emotion to sway your decision making (usually fear). 

And if a person is still in the accumulation phase, then stock volatility doesn't even matter.  The ONLY scenario where it would is if it quickly drops and then stays low for a long time or has a very slow recovery. 

But EVEN THEN, lets say you only get 5% return from stocks vs. the usual 9%.  5% is still better than your other investing options.  So again, I just don't understand people wanting to dance in and out of the market.  It's madness.
+1 to every sentence. So, +11 or something.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: mastrr on March 04, 2020, 09:56:10 PM
I just don't understand people wanting to dance in and out of the market.  It's madness.

i just dance in more. madness is fun
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: MrThatsDifferent on March 09, 2020, 02:26:11 AM
Umm, so whatís the analysis of OPís decision now?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: dragoncar on March 09, 2020, 03:14:34 AM
Umm, so whatís the analysis of OPís decision now?

Still negative for now.  Still sold for the wrong reasons.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: waltworks on March 09, 2020, 08:10:48 AM
Umm, so whatís the analysis of OPís decision now?

Still negative for now.  Still sold for the wrong reasons.

But could still end up ahead through dumb luck! It's getting close!

-W
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: ChpBstrd on March 09, 2020, 08:46:52 AM
When @junioroldtimer returns and bitch-slaps us all, Iím going all-in!
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Tyson on March 09, 2020, 10:22:54 AM
When @junioroldtimer returns and bitch-slaps us all, Iím going all-in!

I'm hoping the market drops and stays down for a while.  Then maybe the 'smart guys' will STFU about CAPE. 
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: DadJokes on March 09, 2020, 10:43:41 AM
When @junioroldtimer returns and bitch-slaps us all, Iím going all-in!

I'm hoping the market drops and stays down for a while.  Then maybe the 'smart guys' will STFU about CAPE.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Full_Beard on March 09, 2020, 12:09:48 PM
When @junioroldtimer returns and bitch-slaps us all, Iím going all-in!
haha. I agree.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: the_fixer on March 09, 2020, 05:23:29 PM
Closed at $67.58 today might be close to break even.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Full_Beard on March 09, 2020, 06:24:32 PM
On February 7th or 8th, Jr. OT sold 892.949 shares at $67.59 each for a total of $60,354.42. Here's the progress report:

On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11 after one week of trying to time the market.
On Feb 22 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $1,866.26 after two weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 01 the closing price was $70.28, meaning that he had cost himself $2,402.03 after three weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 08 the closing price was $68.62, meaning that he had cost himself $919.73 after four weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 15 the closing price was $70.56, meaning that he had cost himself $2,652.05 after five weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 22 the closing price was $69.49, meaning that he had cost himself $1,696.60 after six weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,030.21.
On Mar 29 the closing price was $70.43, meaning that he had cost himself $2,535.97 after seven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,869.58.
On Apr 05 the closing price was $71.94, meaning that he had cost himself $3,884.32 after eight weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,217.94.
On Apr 12 the closing price was $72.35, meaning that he had cost himself $4,250.43 after nine weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,584.04.
On Apr 19 the closing price was $72.16, meaning that he had cost himself $4,080.77 after ten weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4412.38.
On Apr 26 the closing price was $73.09, meaning that he had cost himself $4,911.21 after eleven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $5,244.82.
On Jul 24 the closing price was $74.55, meaning that he had cost himself $6,214.93 after twenty three weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $6,784.90
On Aug 15 the closing price was $70.64, meaning that he had cost himself $2,723.49 after twenty six weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $3,293.46
On Sep 3 the closing price was $72.04, meaning that he had cost himself $3,973.62 after thirty weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $4,543.59
On Oct 25 the closing price was $74.71, meaning that he had cost himself $6,357.80 after thirty seven weeks, plus $899.59 in dividends not paid is $7,257.39
On Nov 15 the closing price was $76.60, meaning that he had cost himself $8,045.47 after forty weeks, plus $899.59 in dividends not paid is $8,945.06
On Dec 3 the closing price was $77.31, meaning that he had cost himself $8,679.46 after forty weeks, plus $899.59 in dividends not paid is $9,579.05
On Dec 27 the closing price was $79.88, meaning that he had cost himself $10,974.34 after forty six weeks, plus $1,282.58 in dividends not paid is $12,256.92
On Jan 11 the closing price was $81.95, meaning that he had cost himself $12,822.75 after forty nine weeks, plus $1,282.58 in dividends not paid is $14,105.33
On Feb 28, 2020 the closing price was $73.13, meaning that he had cost himself $4,946.94 after fifty six weeks, plus $1,282.58 in dividends not paid is $6,229.52.
On March 9, 2020, the closing price was $67.58, meaning he saved himself $8.93 after 56 weeks and 5 days, but he's still in the hole $1,247.45 in missed dividends ($1256.38 - $8.93).

Let's look at the predictions:

I remain long-term optimistic on the US stock market but I'm short-term pessimistic. I think the sitting president is going to be impeached and there's going to be a knock-down, drag-out fight in which the markets temporarily plummet as all this Russia stuff comes to light.

I'll let you guys know how I do. I intend to sell 893 shares of VTSAX. I will buy back in when the price is significantly cheaper.


The House impeached President Trump on December 18, 2019.
"All this Russia stuff" is ridiculously vague, but Russia's stance vis-a-vis OPEC has seemingly begun a knock-down, drag-out fight in which the markets are plummeting.

When will the OP buy back in? What does "significantly cheaper" mean?
The two-year low is $59.77. The five-year low is $45.94.

What was the OP's rate of return for the last 397 days? If it was more than ~2.0%, he would be in the black. Not bad for a seemingly random guess.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: HBFIRE on March 09, 2020, 07:02:01 PM
A true market timer would have waited until about 2 weeks ago :)
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Radagast on March 09, 2020, 07:33:49 PM
The problem with market timing is that the market takes six small steps forward for every single double size step back. Even if you correctly predict a crash and would have come out 20% ahead - with great timing on the bottom buy - , you will still spend twice as long watching the market creep up as you will in the duration of the eventual crash. Watching, waiting, wondering, as every month, for a year, the market crawls higher, questioning, second guessing, surely it was a bad call and it is time to capitulate, it has been two years, two and a half, you give up and buy back. Finally 3 years later a small crash gives you a lower entry point. It is the protracted waiting wrongness that will psyche people out even if they would have been right, coupled with the knowledge that they would be lucky to have as high as a 50% chance of ever being right.
See, classic illustration of my point.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Full_Beard on March 09, 2020, 07:39:26 PM
The problem with market timing is that the market takes six small steps forward for every single double size step back. Even if you correctly predict a crash and would have come out 20% ahead - with great timing on the bottom buy - , you will still spend twice as long watching the market creep up as you will in the duration of the eventual crash. Watching, waiting, wondering, as every month, for a year, the market crawls higher, questioning, second guessing, surely it was a bad call and it is time to capitulate, it has been two years, two and a half, you give up and buy back. Finally 3 years later a small crash gives you a lower entry point. It is the protracted waiting wrongness that will psyche people out even if they would have been right, coupled with the knowledge that they would be lucky to have as high as a 50% chance of ever being right.
See, classic illustration of my point.
Well, if I could come out 20% better off with each crash, I'd happily spend all that time second guessing. It's knowing that I can't achieve those results that keeps me at bay. For this particular one, I did inoculate myself though.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: YoungGranny on March 10, 2020, 06:42:37 AM
On February 7th or 8th, Jr. OT sold 892.949 shares at $67.59 each for a total of $60,354.42. Here's the progress report:

On March 9, 2020, the closing price was $67.58, meaning he saved himself $8.93 after 56 weeks and 5 days, but he's still in the hole $1,247.45 in missed dividends ($1256.38 - $8.93).


Was coming over to update this morning and it was already done, thanks!

At this point OP is only out dividends, yesterday would not have been a bad time to jump back in. Alas, we will never know what Jr. OT is up to these days since he's remained silent.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: ender on March 10, 2020, 06:47:16 AM
On February 7th or 8th, Jr. OT sold 892.949 shares at $67.59 each for a total of $60,354.42. Here's the progress report:

On March 9, 2020, the closing price was $67.58, meaning he saved himself $8.93 after 56 weeks and 5 days, but he's still in the hole $1,247.45 in missed dividends ($1256.38 - $8.93).


Was coming over to update this morning and it was already done, thanks!

At this point OP is only out dividends, yesterday would not have been a bad time to jump back in. Alas, we will never know what Jr. OT is up to these days since he's remained silent.

Could be up slightly if OP went into a high yield savings account though?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: YoungGranny on March 10, 2020, 07:27:19 AM
Well interest rates have dropped in the past year as well. If anyone knows where to get over a 2% savings rate still, in all honesty, please let me know. I've been with Ally Savings since they're typically on the higher end but the savings rate is down to 1.6% now.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: waltworks on March 10, 2020, 08:56:07 AM
At the time OP posted, (s)he could have gotten around 2.5% in a CD, probably. But there's really no point speculating - unless they tell us, we'll never know what happened to the money.

OP's back in the red (only by a bit!) as of this morning.

-W
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Tyson on March 10, 2020, 10:22:07 AM
At the time OP posted, (s)he could have gotten around 2.5% in a CD, probably. But there's really no point speculating - unless they tell us, we'll never know what happened to the money.

OP's back in the red (only by a bit!) as of this morning.

-W

Man, when you try to time the market, you have to pay CLOSE attention to what's going on, all day, every day otherwise you might miss when to sell and more importantly when to buy back in. 

Sorry, but that sounds like work.  And work is something I'm trying to get away from via FIRE.  Even supposing that one could get better results via market timing - the time/effort/stress generated as a result is just not freaking worth it.

It's funny though - I've been doing this long enough now to see how emotionally people behave when there's a dip.  Even people on this board, who should know better. 
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: waltworks on March 10, 2020, 11:25:50 AM
It's funny, I never look at the value of my own investments, I just plow money in there when I have it and otherwise ignore it.

But I check this thread every time it updates!

I figure I'm getting all the fun of market timing without the stress/actual losing of money.

-W
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Full_Beard on March 10, 2020, 02:12:28 PM
Man, when you try to time the market, you have to pay CLOSE attention to what's going on, all day, every day otherwise you might miss when to sell and more importantly when to buy back in. 

Sorry, but that sounds like work.  And work is something I'm trying to get away from via FIRE.  Even supposing that one could get better results via market timing - the time/effort/stress generated as a result is just not freaking worth it.

It's funny though - I've been doing this long enough now to see how emotionally people behave when there's a dip.  Even people on this board, who should know better.
I think one should just treat it like selling short. On the date you get out, pick a target number for when you'd buy back in and pick a number for when you'd cut your losses (lost opportunity profits). Stick to the plan, and it doesn't have to be an emotional roller coaster. If it's going to be one, I'd question why you'd try in the first place. Well, let me say that I'd question why you'd try in the first place regardless, but if you're bold/crazy enough to go down that route, I'd recommend doing so according to a plan.

And we wouldn't have these jumps and dips if people didn't behave so emotionally in response to good/bad news. It's just how people are, in spite of evidence that staying the course has been tested time and again and continually prevails. "This is just different" will always prevail in the minds of many.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: dragoncar on March 10, 2020, 02:16:33 PM
Probably bought back in at the top.  Which, BTW, is in
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: robartsd on March 11, 2020, 03:39:11 PM
Well interest rates have dropped in the past year as well. If anyone knows where to get over a 2% savings rate still, in all honesty, please let me know. I've been with Ally Savings since they're typically on the higher end but the savings rate is down to 1.6% now.
The amount of money in question would have been reasonable to use jumping through the hoops of bank account signup bonuses. Of course those don't scale, but it is certainly plausible that someone could average at least 2% for a year on a few tens of thousands of dollars.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: HBFIRE on March 11, 2020, 07:34:35 PM
Well interest rates have dropped in the past year as well. If anyone knows where to get over a 2% savings rate still, in all honesty, please let me know. I've been with Ally Savings since they're typically on the higher end but the savings rate is down to 1.6% now.

i use heritage checking, pays 3%
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on March 11, 2020, 08:22:18 PM
Man, when you try to time the market, you have to pay CLOSE attention to what's going on, all day, every day otherwise you might miss when to sell and more importantly when to buy back in. 

Sorry, but that sounds like work.  And work is something I'm trying to get away from via FIRE.
...
As someone doing this right now, this is hilarious and spot on.  It's like coming out of retirement to watch news and markets too often.

In my opinion, the best market timer of all time (now a controversial political figure) is George Soros, who gained fame for breaking the bank of England.  But his approach of doing experiments in the markets, of "reflexivity" is hard to understand, in my view.  But I would point out he wasn't aiming for a certain level, he was expecting certain events.  Beyond the billion dollar bet against England, he also ran the Quantum Fund which beat the market for decades.  But the main lesson I take away is that I can't do what he did.  Day in, day out calculating experiments and watching to see how they play out in markets... it definitely sounds like a full time job.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Joe Schmo on March 12, 2020, 09:09:08 AM
Mad respect to put it out there oldtimer!!

vs

"We don't time the market"**

**Only applies when it's a 10 year bull run but then panic hits and everything we ran our mouths about for years and years goes out the door and we time the market like everyone else that we've been talking down to for years

Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Tyson on March 12, 2020, 09:38:57 AM
Mad respect to put it out there oldtimer!!

vs

"We don't time the market"**

**Only applies when it's a 10 year bull run but then panic hits and everything we ran our mouths about for years and years goes out the door and we time the market like everyone else that we've been talking down to for years

If it weren't for this forum, I wouldn't even know that there was a drop.  My only real wish is that it doesn't rebound for a while so I can get some of my auto-purchases at a cheaper rate, those happen 2x every month.  Got another one coming up here in about a week. 

But I really don't get why people panic.  Aren't they in this for the long haul?  Don't they realize that short term volatility is just noise? 
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: dragoncar on March 12, 2020, 10:18:54 AM
Mad respect to put it out there oldtimer!!

vs

"We don't time the market"**

**Only applies when it's a 10 year bull run but then panic hits and everything we ran our mouths about for years and years goes out the door and we time the market like everyone else that we've been talking down to for years

If it weren't for this forum, I wouldn't even know that there was a drop.  My only real wish is that it doesn't rebound for a while so I can get some of my auto-purchases at a cheaper rate, those happen 2x every month.  Got another one coming up here in about a week. 

But I really don't get why people panic.  Aren't they in this for the long haul?  Don't they realize that short term volatility is just noise?

Well itís looking like more than short term volatility and an extended drawdown is what kills retirements.  Anyone who retired last year is probably swearing it even if thereís still a good chance of ultimate success
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: arebelspy on March 12, 2020, 10:25:31 AM
Mad respect to put it out there oldtimer!!

vs

"We don't time the market"**

**Only applies when it's a 10 year bull run but then panic hits and everything we ran our mouths about for years and years goes out the door and we time the market like everyone else that we've been talking down to for years

If it weren't for this forum, I wouldn't even know that there was a drop.  My only real wish is that it doesn't rebound for a while so I can get some of my auto-purchases at a cheaper rate, those happen 2x every month.  Got another one coming up here in about a week. 

But I really don't get why people panic.  Aren't they in this for the long haul?  Don't they realize that short term volatility is just noise?

Well itís looking like more than short term volatility and an extended drawdown is what kills retirements.  Anyone who retired last year is probably swearing it even if thereís still a good chance of ultimate success

I think you meant sweating it, but there's probably some swearing going on too.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: dragoncar on March 12, 2020, 10:29:33 AM
Yeah mostly on mobile so guaranteed one autocorrect error per porst.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: HBFIRE on March 12, 2020, 10:30:34 AM
Maybe off topic for this thread but I'm going to spill it out anyway as its on my mind.

I think a lot of us in this community are either 1) are too young to have experienced the the great recession pains, or 2) near ~40ish and maybe didn't have much at stake back then.  I fall into the latter camp.

Unfortunately, figuring out what you're comfortable with in terms of asset allocation might require feeling the pain of a downturn.  Sure, we can think about what we're comfortable with on an intellectual level, but I think real world experience is what really solidifies an understanding.  Now is probably the best time to truly evaluate what asset allocation you think is good for you in the long term.  My own allocation is ~ 70/30, and fortunately I think it's about in line with what I'm comfortable with -- maybe some minor calibration.  That said, as my portfolio increases, I will very likely tweak that down to something like 50/50 and will absolutely want to diversify into rental properties.  This particular downturn has me really thinking about how much it would be nice to have additional income streams like rental properties.  Additionally, I'm really thankful that I've set aside a large emergency fund that is not exposed to equities.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: MoMoneyFewerProblems on March 12, 2020, 11:00:24 AM
Mad respect to put it out there oldtimer!!

vs

"We don't time the market"**

**Only applies when it's a 10 year bull run but then panic hits and everything we ran our mouths about for years and years goes out the door and we time the market like everyone else that we've been talking down to for years

If it weren't for this forum, I wouldn't even know that there was a drop.  My only real wish is that it doesn't rebound for a while so I can get some of my auto-purchases at a cheaper rate, those happen 2x every month.  Got another one coming up here in about a week. 

But I really don't get why people panic.  Aren't they in this for the long haul?  Don't they realize that short term volatility is just noise?
I'd like to echo this, especially in this case. It isn't as if the selloff is the result of a weak economy. Rather, it is a combination of intentional manipulation of oil prices and a temporary health scare which will pass.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: arebelspy on March 12, 2020, 11:23:41 AM
Regardless of what you think of COVID-19, I think the ripples from the economy slowdown leading to layoffs will be real.

Restaurants have already closed both temporarily and permanently here in Seattle.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: secondcor521 on March 12, 2020, 11:49:05 AM
Yeah mostly on mobile so guaranteed one autocorrect error per porst.

I see what you did there.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Boofinator on March 12, 2020, 12:19:21 PM
My only real wish is that it doesn't rebound for a while so I can get some of my auto-purchases at a cheaper rate, those happen 2x every month.

My only real wish is that the fundamentals of the economy are sound and that the current disturbances (oil and coronavirus) flash quickly and without much devastation (though perhaps the oil fight can be a good thing, if it helps wean us off oil). A falling tide drops all boats....
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Full_Beard on March 12, 2020, 02:27:01 PM
Jr. Old Timer!! I'm still impressed, even if she/he checked out permanently, or got back in on VTSAX on Feb. 1st. OK, not really.

If this forum is the only way some of you have heard there's a drop, pick up a newspaper a bit more frequently. But, stay away from cable news.

Whether this is a short-term drop or the start of something bigger, it's impossible to say with a high degree of certainty. There are indicators to make the argument on both sides. The scene in Seattle may be a harbinger for other coastal cities, perhaps other cities generally.

I think we all agree that it makes no sense to panic. If you have a plan, stick to the plan. If you don't have a plan, panic.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: HBFIRE on March 12, 2020, 02:35:30 PM
The thing that impresses me most about jroldtimer, is that he hasn't logged in to rub it in our faces.  Dude checked out sometime mid last year. 
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Full_Beard on March 12, 2020, 04:18:39 PM
On February 7th or 8th, Jr. OT sold 892.949 shares at $67.59 each for a total of $60,354.42. Here's the progress report for Thursday, 3/12:

On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11 after one week of trying to time the market.
On Feb 22 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $1,866.26 after two weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 01 the closing price was $70.28, meaning that he had cost himself $2,402.03 after three weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 08 the closing price was $68.62, meaning that he had cost himself $919.73 after four weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 15 the closing price was $70.56, meaning that he had cost himself $2,652.05 after five weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 22 the closing price was $69.49, meaning that he had cost himself $1,696.60 after six weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,030.21.
On Mar 29 the closing price was $70.43, meaning that he had cost himself $2,535.97 after seven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,869.58.
On Apr 05 the closing price was $71.94, meaning that he had cost himself $3,884.32 after eight weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,217.94.
On Apr 12 the closing price was $72.35, meaning that he had cost himself $4,250.43 after nine weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,584.04.
On Apr 19 the closing price was $72.16, meaning that he had cost himself $4,080.77 after ten weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4412.38.
On Apr 26 the closing price was $73.09, meaning that he had cost himself $4,911.21 after eleven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $5,244.82.
On Jul 24 the closing price was $74.55, meaning that he had cost himself $6,214.93 after twenty three weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $6,784.90
On Aug 15 the closing price was $70.64, meaning that he had cost himself $2,723.49 after twenty six weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $3,293.46
On Sep 3 the closing price was $72.04, meaning that he had cost himself $3,973.62 after thirty weeks, plus $569.97 in dividends not paid is $4,543.59
On Oct 25 the closing price was $74.71, meaning that he had cost himself $6,357.80 after thirty seven weeks, plus $899.59 in dividends not paid is $7,257.39
On Nov 15 the closing price was $76.60, meaning that he had cost himself $8,045.47 after forty weeks, plus $899.59 in dividends not paid is $8,945.06
On Dec 3 the closing price was $77.31, meaning that he had cost himself $8,679.46 after forty weeks, plus $899.59 in dividends not paid is $9,579.05
On Dec 27 the closing price was $79.88, meaning that he had cost himself $10,974.34 after forty six weeks, plus $1,282.58 in dividends not paid is $12,256.92
On Jan 11 the closing price was $81.95, meaning that he had cost himself $12,822.75 after forty nine weeks, plus $1,282.58 in dividends not paid is $14,105.33
On Feb 28, 2020 the closing price was $73.13, meaning that he had cost himself $4,946.94 after fifty six weeks, plus $1,282.58 in dividends not paid is $6,229.52.
On March 9, 2020, the closing price was $67.58, meaning he saved himself $8.93 after 56 weeks and 5 days, but he's still in the hole $1,247.45 in missed dividends ($1256.38 - $8.93).
On March 12, 2020, the closing price was $60.69, meaning he saved himself $4,904.97 after 57 weeks and after factoring in missed dividends.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: dividendman on March 12, 2020, 04:19:58 PM
I wonder when he'll buy in now that he's saved himself thousands of dollars.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: jps on March 12, 2020, 05:24:15 PM
juniormarkettimer probably bought back in at the top, thinking he had already missed out on enough.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: PDXTabs on March 12, 2020, 05:25:03 PM
juniormarkettimer probably bought back in at the top, thinking he had already missed out on enough.

I know I did during the financial crisis. That's why I don't try to time the markets anymore.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: bacchi on March 12, 2020, 05:25:41 PM
He was ahead of his time.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Davnasty on March 12, 2020, 06:49:26 PM
juniormarkettimer probably bought back in at the top, thinking he had already missed out on enough.

I like to think he went all in on March 9
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: robartsd on March 13, 2020, 05:41:25 PM
I think a lot of us in this community are either 1) are too young to have experienced the the great recession pains, or 2) near ~40ish and maybe didn't have much at stake back then.  I fall into the latter camp.
I'm more in the latter camp as well. Our first investments were in March 2008. We were pretty nervous about being new to investing and very conservative in our allocation (DW wanted 100% bonds, I started with about 1/3 stocks 2/3 bonds), so we didn't experience that much of a dip with the great recession. We did have the stress of insufficient income for a while due to difficulty finding jobs. We also didn't get more confident in long term prospects (or think all that much about our how long our timeline was) until we missed out on a lot of the recovery as well. I'm looking forward to not missing out on the recovery from this downturn. Just bumped our savings level up this year (now about 1/3 of income). At the beginning of this year I though that by the end of the year 25-30% of our total investment portfolio would be due to this year's contributions, but now I'm hoping it will be more.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: junioroldtimer on March 15, 2020, 03:01:02 PM
Put in my order on 3/12 when shares were >10% lower than my sell price but Vanguard didn't process my transaction until 3/13 at a price of $66.14. 

Purchased 907.1670 shares for $66.14 each for $60,000.00. I've been checking in on this thread periodically and don't really have the desire to want to get into it with each and every person who's been rooting against me. My (correct) assumption was that prices would one day be cheaper than they were when I sold. I kept the money in a no-penalty Ally Bank CD at a 2.30% interest rate.

In hindsight, I'll concede that I'm not sure the exercise was worth it but I did gain a few (15) more shares than I would have for the same $ in February of last year.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Joe Schmo on March 15, 2020, 03:07:59 PM
I agree with not wanting to take the heat. Good on you for putting it out there!!
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: dividendman on March 15, 2020, 03:08:51 PM
Put in my order on 3/12 when shares were >10% lower than my sell price but Vanguard didn't process my transaction until 3/13 at a price of $66.14. 

Purchased 907.1670 shares for $66.14 each for $60,000.00. I've been checking in on this thread periodically and don't really have the desire to want to get into it with each and every person who's been rooting against me. My (correct) assumption was that prices would one day be cheaper than they were when I sold. I kept the money in a no-penalty Ally Bank CD at a 2.30% interest rate.

In hindsight, I'll concede that I'm not sure the exercise was worth it but I did gain a few (15) more shares than I would have for the same $ in February of last year.

Nice work! I think the next 12 months are gonna be interesting either way.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: BicycleB on March 15, 2020, 06:47:53 PM
Put in my order on 3/12 when shares were >10% lower than my sell price but Vanguard didn't process my transaction until 3/13 at a price of $66.14. 

Purchased 907.1670 shares for $66.14 each for $60,000.00. I've been checking in on this thread periodically and don't really have the desire to want to get into it with each and every person who's been rooting against me. My (correct) assumption was that prices would one day be cheaper than they were when I sold. I kept the money in a no-penalty Ally Bank CD at a 2.30% interest rate.

In hindsight, I'll concede that I'm not sure the exercise was worth it but I did gain a few (15) more shares than I would have for the same $ in February of last year.

@junioroldtimer, you're back! Gutsiest update of the day. 

And congrats on coming out ahead. I totally respect that you called your shot publicly, then came back with the resolution.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: frugalnacho on March 15, 2020, 06:56:45 PM
I don't know if everyone is necessarily rooting against you specifically, or just viewed it as a cautionary tale to others.  Most here believe you can't time the market. I'm glad it worked out for you, but the vast majority of people that try to time the market get burned.  Kudos on getting it right though.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: norajean on March 15, 2020, 09:38:40 PM
The worst thing you can do is get lucky and imagine you know what you are doing. This often leads to eventual ruin.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: waltworks on March 15, 2020, 09:51:26 PM
I wasn't rooting against you at all - I like buying stocks at a discount!

Kudos for coming back. And for buying back in at a time when many people wouldn't have the guts.

If I were you I'd probably not look to get bailed out again by a pandemic, though, and stick with staying invested going forward.

-W
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Radagast on March 15, 2020, 10:53:08 PM
Put in my order on 3/12 when shares were >10% lower than my sell price but Vanguard didn't process my transaction until 3/13 at a price of $66.14. 

Purchased 907.1670 shares for $66.14 each for $60,000.00. I've been checking in on this thread periodically and don't really have the desire to want to get into it with each and every person who's been rooting against me. My (correct) (lucky) assumption was that prices would one day be cheaper than they were when I sold. I kept the money in a no-penalty Ally Bank CD at a 2.30% interest rate.

In hindsight, I'll concede that I'm not sure the exercise was worth it but I did gain a few (15) more shares than I would have for the same $ in February of last year.
Thank you for coming back, and for keeping us updated with exact numbers! This has probably been one of, if not the, best learning thread that has gone through here.

I do not agree with your "correct" characterization. Your sell was more than a year early, you missed the top by more than 25%, your rebuy price was not "significantly cheaper", and the cause of the crash was unrelated to your stated cause. I think "lucky" is the best word here. That said, I do think your experience has mimicked others, eg. in 1997-1999, 2005-2006, and more recently 2017-2019. People who eventually become correct/lucky will generally have it play out about like you did. It is hard to nail the top, and often the rewards of being right will be tiny.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: dragoncar on March 15, 2020, 10:57:02 PM
Put in my order on 3/12 when shares were >10% lower than my sell price but Vanguard didn't process my transaction until 3/13 at a price of $66.14. 

Purchased 907.1670 shares for $66.14 each for $60,000.00. I've been checking in on this thread periodically and don't really have the desire to want to get into it with each and every person who's been rooting against me. My (correct) (lucky) assumption was that prices would one day be cheaper than they were when I sold. I kept the money in a no-penalty Ally Bank CD at a 2.30% interest rate.

In hindsight, I'll concede that I'm not sure the exercise was worth it but I did gain a few (15) more shares than I would have for the same $ in February of last year.
Thank you for coming back, and for keeping us updated with exact numbers! This has probably been one of, if not the, best learning thread that has gone through here.

I do not agree with your "correct" characterization. Your sell was more than a year early, you missed the top by more than 25%, your rebuy price was not "significantly cheaper", and the cause of the crash was unrelated to your stated cause. I think "lucky" is the best word here. That said, I do think your experience has mimicked others, eg. in 1997-1999, 2005-2006, and more recently 2017-2019. People who eventually become correct/lucky will generally have it play out about like you did. It is hard to nail the top, and often the rewards of being right will be tiny.

When the "lucky" scenario is break-even....

And were I a market timer, I probably would not buy back in at this point.  I'd probably wait a month or two more. 
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: ChpBstrd on March 16, 2020, 06:27:53 AM
When @junioroldtimer returns and bitch-slaps us all, Iím going all-in!

@junioroldtimer is polite. No "told-ya-so's", and nary an accusation of "stupid". Problem is, I can't tell - is the bitch-slap in?

(https://thumbs.gfycat.com/RespectfulViciousArmadillo-mobile.mp4)
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: YoungGranny on March 16, 2020, 07:11:40 AM
Thanks for coming back and providing an update junioroldtimer. Glad you got back in at a cheaper price.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Blueberries on March 16, 2020, 07:18:30 AM
When @junioroldtimer returns and bitch-slaps us all, Iím going all-in!

@junioroldtimer is polite. No "told-ya-so's", and nary an accusation of "stupid". Problem is, I can't tell - is the bitch-slap in?

(https://thumbs.gfycat.com/RespectfulViciousArmadillo-mobile.mp4)

No shit, especially after some of the pompous responses in this thread. 

What a delicious read.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: junioroldtimer on March 16, 2020, 12:50:35 PM
Put in my order on 3/12 when shares were >10% lower than my sell price but Vanguard didn't process my transaction until 3/13 at a price of $66.14. 

Purchased 907.1670 shares for $66.14 each for $60,000.00. I've been checking in on this thread periodically and don't really have the desire to want to get into it with each and every person who's been rooting against me. My (correct) (lucky) assumption was that prices would one day be cheaper than they were when I sold. I kept the money in a no-penalty Ally Bank CD at a 2.30% interest rate.

In hindsight, I'll concede that I'm not sure the exercise was worth it but I did gain a few (15) more shares than I would have for the same $ in February of last year.
Thank you for coming back, and for keeping us updated with exact numbers! This has probably been one of, if not the, best learning thread that has gone through here.

I do not agree with your "correct" characterization. Your sell was more than a year early, you missed the top by more than 25%, your rebuy price was not "significantly cheaper", and the cause of the crash was unrelated to your stated cause. I think "lucky" is the best word here. That said, I do think your experience has mimicked others, eg. in 1997-1999, 2005-2006, and more recently 2017-2019. People who eventually become correct/lucky will generally have it play out about like you did. It is hard to nail the top, and often the rewards of being right will be tiny.

To me "lucky" and "correct" are not mutually exclusive. I think you and I would agree that we would not call the timing of the trades optimal. Further, I'd consider 10% off a significant savings but my transaction wasn't processed fast enough (maybe because I was transferring money from Ally).
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: dragoncar on March 16, 2020, 01:24:45 PM
Put in my order on 3/12 when shares were >10% lower than my sell price but Vanguard didn't process my transaction until 3/13 at a price of $66.14. 

Purchased 907.1670 shares for $66.14 each for $60,000.00. I've been checking in on this thread periodically and don't really have the desire to want to get into it with each and every person who's been rooting against me. My (correct) (lucky) assumption was that prices would one day be cheaper than they were when I sold. I kept the money in a no-penalty Ally Bank CD at a 2.30% interest rate.

In hindsight, I'll concede that I'm not sure the exercise was worth it but I did gain a few (15) more shares than I would have for the same $ in February of last year.
Thank you for coming back, and for keeping us updated with exact numbers! This has probably been one of, if not the, best learning thread that has gone through here.

I do not agree with your "correct" characterization. Your sell was more than a year early, you missed the top by more than 25%, your rebuy price was not "significantly cheaper", and the cause of the crash was unrelated to your stated cause. I think "lucky" is the best word here. That said, I do think your experience has mimicked others, eg. in 1997-1999, 2005-2006, and more recently 2017-2019. People who eventually become correct/lucky will generally have it play out about like you did. It is hard to nail the top, and often the rewards of being right will be tiny.

To me "lucky" and "correct" are not mutually exclusive. I think you and I would agree that we would not call the timing of the trades optimal. Further, I'd consider 10% off a significant savings but my transaction wasn't processed fast enough (maybe because I was transferring money from Ally).

Vanguard let me buy shares while funds were in transit.  Not sure if I have a different kind of account than you. 

Either way, there have been a number of brokerage outages.  Should be a reminder to everyone that if your plan calls for a level of investment services that you are used to in non-crisis situations to continue through crises, you should rethink your plan.  A lot of options traders got burned when Robinhood went down and couldn't close out their trades.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: MissNancyPryor on March 17, 2020, 12:47:25 PM
So you watched the Russia collusion report be a nothing burger and impeachment go nowhere and then watched the massive run up over the winter into mid February and didn't buy back in.  The 20% run up was not enough to bring you back in over that year and you had no fear you were missing out all that time, watching some days go by with 600 point gains. 

Lucky the virus happened relatively soon, otherwise years might have slipped by without a similar opportunity.

Impressive crystal ball, that. 

   
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: markbike528CBX on March 17, 2020, 01:23:24 PM
Despite all the hassle @junioroldtimer (OP for the newcomers)  has received, I'd like to commend the OP for coming back to update us. 
Not many ( any? ) of the prognosticators do so.

I think it was a wise move for the OP to ghost the thread until something was actually reportable.

NOT defending the position early on was also a wise move on the OP's part as Sol has figured out. 
You can't win an argument on the internet.

That said MissNancyPryor's comments just above are concurred with.   Not jumping back in at +20% must have  been difficult.
 If only the OP had waited just a few more days......to come back with a much greater than breakeven move.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: dragoncar on March 17, 2020, 01:52:51 PM
Despite all the hassle @junioroldtimer (OP for the newcomers)  has received, I'd like to commend the OP for coming back to update us. 
Not many ( any? ) of the prognosticators do so.

I think it was a wise move for the OP to ghost the thread until something was actually reportable.

NOT defending the position early on was also a wise move on the OP's part as Sol has figured out. 
You can't win an argument on the internet.

That said MissNancyPryor's comments just above are concurred with.   Not jumping back in at +20% must have  been difficult.
 If only the OP had waited just a few more days......to come back with a much greater than breakeven move.

Sure he came back when he was ďvindicatedĒ.  Where was he the rest of the time?  What if COVID didnít happen and things went flat or up... would he have come back to update?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: frugalnacho on March 17, 2020, 02:00:07 PM
Despite all the hassle @junioroldtimer (OP for the newcomers)  has received, I'd like to commend the OP for coming back to update us. 
Not many ( any? ) of the prognosticators do so.

I think it was a wise move for the OP to ghost the thread until something was actually reportable.

NOT defending the position early on was also a wise move on the OP's part as Sol has figured out. 
You can't win an argument on the internet.

That said MissNancyPryor's comments just above are concurred with.   Not jumping back in at +20% must have  been difficult.
 If only the OP had waited just a few more days......to come back with a much greater than breakeven move.

Sure he came back when he was ďvindicatedĒ.  Where was he the rest of the time?  What if COVID didnít happen and things went flat or up... would he have come back to update?

He would have been added to the growing list of market timers with failed predictions.  This forum is littered with them.

Melt it down and add it to the others.

(https://i117.photobucket.com/albums/o51/alexandraleaving/gifs/slemysword_optim.gif)
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Full_Beard on March 18, 2020, 12:45:51 AM
So you watched the Russia collusion report be a nothing burger and impeachment go nowhere and then watched the massive run up over the winter into mid February and didn't buy back in.  The 20% run up was not enough to bring you back in over that year and you had no fear you were missing out all that time, watching some days go by with 600 point gains. 

Lucky the virus happened relatively soon, otherwise years might have slipped by without a similar opportunity.

Impressive crystal ball, that.   
I'll give you that the "impeachment" went nowhere, though that's true in all cases unless the impeached president is convicted by the Senate. But Manafort, Stone, Cohen (to name a few) were all convicted. I'd hardly say the Russian investigation was a nothing burger.

In any event, plaudits to JrOT for coming back. Except for some very, very few savvy investors, market timing is about getting lucky. He caught it, ever so slightly.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Jamese20 on March 18, 2020, 12:54:14 AM
I think the only time you can time it as such is in times like now when market is getting a hammering and you somehow have a ton of cash laying around

I don't see how you predict selling before something like this happens unless it's blind luck but you have more chance sitting on the sidelines for years losing out on gains and dividends.

If you have followed fire advice then I don't see how anyone can take huge advantage of the drops in a big way other than their usual monthly investment
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: MissNancyPryor on March 18, 2020, 10:46:16 AM
I am not arguing what was a thing or not a thing.  Those events did not cause the market crash JoT needed to make his gambit successful.  The Russia report was his first prediction that would make the market tank and it did not.  There were many events that didn't make it go down all this last year; it is only the virus that has done that.  And despite the massive run up JoT says he managed to wait it out.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: frugalnacho on March 18, 2020, 11:15:35 AM
I am not arguing what was a thing or not a thing.  Those events did not cause the market crash JoT needed to make his gambit successful.  The Russia report was his first prediction that would make the market tank and it did not.  There were many events that didn't make it go down all this last year; it is only the virus that has done that.  And despite the massive run up JoT says he managed to wait it out.

I'm reminded of all the threads from 2013, 2014, 2015, etc where someone claimed the top was in for X reason and they were getting out of the market and we never heard from them again.  I'm assuming because they were crying about missing the subsequent years of gains from the bull market. 
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: MissNancyPryor on March 18, 2020, 11:29:57 AM
They did get back in but will never admit it.  No one likes to talk about the hands they lost, only their aces.

JL Collins bailed out in 1987 at the bottom but at least he is teaching others why that was a bad idea. 
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Chuck on March 18, 2020, 11:35:02 AM
They did get back in but will never admit it.  No one likes to talk about the hands they lost, only their aces.

JL Collins bailed out in 1987 at the bottom but at least he is teaching others why that was a bad idea.
The secret is bailing out when things are bad, but not as bad as they eventually get.

This situation has been a gift financially because the damage can be estimated well in advance: 2-2.5 Spread, 1-4% fatality. No vaccine. Many, many, many people will lose their lives before we can mitigate this. A true flattening of the curve will take 12 months or more of the current economic shutdown. Pick a stock market bottom in your mind and slice it in half.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: MissNancyPryor on March 18, 2020, 12:19:27 PM
I hope you come back and tell us how you were wrong one day. 
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Full_Beard on March 18, 2020, 04:18:02 PM
It is luck. And some educating guessing perhaps. But, no one, save some professionals (who too are wrong quite a bit), can make money long term from timing.

I'm happy to share what I did and haven't yet finalized. On April 2, 2019, I sold all my holdings in my retirement accounts (75% SP500, 25% stocks) and bought bonds. It was worth $1.2M then; today, it's worth about $1.3M. I just sold the bonds and am going to repurchase my holdings soon.

I based my guess on (a) the high Schiller PE; (b) my concern for the long term effects from Trump's tax cuts and tariffs; (c) Trump's unabashed willingness to publicly punch the Fed and Fed Chairman; (d) Trump's foreign policy which generally involved alienating our traditional, staunch allies; and (e) my lack of confidence in Trump's leadership. That sounds very political, and perhaps it can't be divorced from the political nature of it, but my advice on page 4 of this thread was that such decisions shouldn't be political and I didn't consider mine to be that at the time.

In any event, I put sideboards on myself. When I sold, I figured I'd stay on the sidelines until a 20% dip or a 20% climb, or if neither, a change in leadership. The SP500 was valued around 2850 when I sold and my target re-entry was 2300. I was mentally ready to take the 20% lost opportunity costs going into my 1-year sale anniversary. I certainly could not have predicted, or would have wished for, a pandemic such as this one. It's pretty horrible.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: BicycleB on March 18, 2020, 07:30:23 PM
They did get back in but will never admit it.  No one likes to talk about the hands they lost, only their aces.

JL Collins bailed out in 1987 at the bottom but at least he is teaching others why that was a bad idea.
The secret is bailing out when things are bad, but not as bad as they eventually get.

This situation has been a gift financially because the damage can be estimated well in advance: 2-2.5 Spread, 1-4% fatality. No vaccine. Many, many, many people will lose their lives before we can mitigate this. A true flattening of the curve will take 12 months or more of the current economic shutdown. Pick a stock market bottom in your mind and slice it in half.

This "gift" - @Chuck, do like Full_Beard and tell us how you are operationalizing it. Did you sell stock and go to cash? When? With all of your marbles, or some? What bottom-sliced-in-half do you anticipate? Are you committed to cash for 12 months from now? What are your criteria for buying back in?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: frugalnacho on March 18, 2020, 08:07:05 PM
It's so easy.  It's so obvious the power Ball was going to be 08, y'all should have just picked the winning numbers like I did.

I am somewhat stunned by the number of people that make it sound so simple like that. Like the entire world is full of retards that can't tell the future. Just sell high, then buy back in low, it's so obvious guys. It's practically fool proof.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: junioroldtimer on March 21, 2020, 02:07:00 PM
Purchased 17.8440 additional shares @ $56.04 each.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: dragoncar on March 21, 2020, 03:14:27 PM
Purchased 17.8440 additional shares @ $56.04 each.

Do come back regularly to update us.  You donít need to engage with people crapping on you but it would be nice to hear from you more often!

Also I think you get more crap when you disappear... most of us assumed you were not reading the thread and never como  back
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: waltworks on March 21, 2020, 03:39:42 PM
Yeah, 99/100 market timing threads the OP just ghosts forever.

Keep us updated! I bought $1500ish of shares on Friday too, though mine was VTIAX. Foreign stuff is getting stupid cheap.

-W
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: junioroldtimer on March 27, 2020, 10:26:31 AM
This move might have most forum regulars face palming (more than this entire thread).

Last night I put in a trade that was executed this morning selling 469.41 shares @ $63.91 each, taking a loss of $1,046.78 from my purchase on 3/15. My hypothesis is that VTSAX will again be lower than its current price at which point I will buy back in at a discount. Keep your fingers crossed for me and stay healthy everyone. 

Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: dividendman on March 27, 2020, 10:31:42 AM
This move might have most forum regulars face palming (more than this entire thread).

Last night I put in a trade that was executed this morning selling 469.41 shares @ $63.91 each, taking a loss of $1,046.78 from my purchase on 3/15. My hypothesis is that VTSAX will again be lower than its current price at which point I will buy back in at a discount. Keep your fingers crossed for me and stay healthy everyone.

Good luck man.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: utaca on March 27, 2020, 10:40:38 AM
Yeah, 99/100 market timing threads the OP just ghosts forever.


That's what it seems like. But I find these posts super interesting because they show what usually goes wrong when a person tries to time the market. And if the person actually beats the market - good for them!
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: waltworks on March 27, 2020, 11:19:58 AM
In other news, I bought my usual $1500 of VTIAX this morning.

-W
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: frugalnacho on March 27, 2020, 11:28:09 AM
Yeah, 99/100 market timing threads the OP just ghosts forever.


That's what it seems like. But I find these posts super interesting because they show what usually goes wrong when a person tries to time the market. And if the person actually beats the market - good for them!

He's already back at it though.  He jumped back in in March, and is already back out as of 3 posts ago.  When you dance in and out you have to be correct every time.  Being right initially usually just emboldens you to keep taking that losing bet.  Just by the sheer volume of people that try to time the market a bunch of them are likely to be correct at least some of the time.  Similar to having a big coin flip guessing contest - with enough participants the statistical distribution means some people will appear to be very good at guessing coin flips, much better than the average.  It has to be that way.

Good luck to the op but he is playing with fire.  He has publicly recorded multiple times now that is has tried to time the market. 
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: junioroldtimer on March 30, 2020, 11:58:12 AM
What I didn't account for were the brakes Vanguard has implemented and the month long period between selling and buying VTSAX.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: AdrianC on March 30, 2020, 12:03:22 PM
What I didn't account for were the brakes Vanguard has implemented and the month long period between selling and buying VTSAX.
Use VTI and know what price you're getting.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: junioroldtimer on March 31, 2020, 09:24:57 AM
What I didn't account for were the brakes Vanguard has implemented and the month long period between selling and buying VTSAX.
Use VTI and know what price you're getting.

Thanks -- what did you mean by the second half of your statement? "Know what you're getting"?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: frugalnacho on March 31, 2020, 09:50:19 AM
What I didn't account for were the brakes Vanguard has implemented and the month long period between selling and buying VTSAX.
Use VTI and know what price you're getting.

Thanks -- what did you mean by the second half of your statement? "Know what you're getting"?

VTI is an ETF and is traded in real time.  VTSAX is a mutual fund and is done at "end of day" pricing.

If you place an order for VTI right now, you pay the current price and the transaction is almost immediate.  If you place an order for VTSAX right now, you will pay whatever the price closes out at at the end of the day.  I got boned by this a couple weeks ago when Trump held a press conference and declared a state of emergency.  My order was already placed, then in the last 30 minutes of trading the market shot up at a record pace and ended up like 9% for no fucking reason, and my transaction completed at the +9% end of day price. 
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: talltexan on March 31, 2020, 09:54:28 AM
I remember that 9% jump in the last hour.

It happened on a payday, so it affected the clearing price for retirement account purchases. And it all evaporated in trading on Monday.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: junioroldtimer on March 31, 2020, 09:55:12 AM
Ouch! I now understand. Thanks for explaining.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: waltworks on March 31, 2020, 10:17:36 AM
Dunning-Kruger inspired facepalm...

Yes, you want VTI if you want to jump in and out of the market in a time of high volatility. You are giving up some mutual fund conveniences (automatic investing and such) but that's probably not a big deal. And you save 1 basis point of expenses, woot.

I don't remember if you're actually still holding any VTSAX but you can call Vanguard and have them convert it to VTI (not a taxable event). You can't convert back, though, without selling VTI (taxable event) and buying VTSAX again.

-W
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on March 31, 2020, 10:27:29 AM
If you switch to ETFs for market timing, it's easy to violate SEC regulation T.  That happens if you buy an ETF, and the same day - or in the next 2 trading days - sell the same ETF.  It's called "free riding" because you avoided the settlement by selling early.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_riding
https://www.sec.gov/oiea/investor-alerts-and-bulletins/ib_cashaccounts

One perfectly legal way to avoid it is have multiple ETFs, like "VTI" and "SCHX".   Maybe you only do sales of SCHX, and only buy VTI for awhile.  When it's been 3 days and you haven't done any trades, you can flip it around: all sales of VTI shares, all buys use SCHX shares (both are $0/trade at Vanguard).
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Jack0Life on April 01, 2020, 10:03:30 AM
What I didn't account for were the brakes Vanguard has implemented and the month long period between selling and buying VTSAX.
Use VTI and know what price you're getting.

Thanks -- what did you mean by the second half of your statement? "Know what you're getting"?

VTI is an ETF and is traded in real time.  VTSAX is a mutual fund and is done at "end of day" pricing.

If you place an order for VTI right now, you pay the current price and the transaction is almost immediate.  If you place an order for VTSAX right now, you will pay whatever the price closes out at at the end of the day.  I got boned by this a couple weeks ago when Trump held a press conference and declared a state of emergency.  My order was already placed, then in the last 30 minutes of trading the market shot up at a record pace and ended up like 9% for no fucking reason, and my transaction completed at the +9% end of day price.

Yeah I learned the hard way too so now whenever I decide to reallocate, I wait till 3:55 and later before I hit the SUBMIT.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Jack0Life on April 01, 2020, 10:06:15 AM
What I didn't account for were the brakes Vanguard has implemented and the month long period between selling and buying VTSAX.

What I do is move it between various Index funds.
Go from VTSAX to VBTLX(bonds).
VBTLX to VLCAX(large market index).
VLCAX to VLGSX(different bonds).
VLGSX to another Index.
You can do this while waiting out the 1 month restriction.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: ChpBstrd on April 01, 2020, 02:25:57 PM
I still canít comprehend why VTSAX is preferred over VTI, but thatís been asked in other posts.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Jack0Life on April 01, 2020, 02:44:09 PM
I still canít comprehend why VTSAX is preferred over VTI, but thatís been asked in other posts.

Most investors are beginners and passive.
First thing they learn is to buy mutual funds and just let it grow.
Reading MMM about VTSAX as the simpliest way to invest helps.
I include myself. Put all my investment in VTSAX and forget it.
Most investors are passive. They aren't going to move funds around so no need to buy VTI.
Once this crisis began and I started moving funds around, you can see the limitation with mutual funds. Its only now that I started looking into VTI
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: BigMoneyJim on April 01, 2020, 04:00:57 PM
I still canít comprehend why VTSAX is preferred over VTI, but thatís been asked in other posts.

ETFs are relatively newer, until recently cost money to trade, require a brokerage account with the accompanying pushy sales pitches, and as a passive investor I just couldn't find a compelling reason to try ETFs for a long, long time.

Most of the oft-touted advantages don't apply to a passive indexer willing to ride out dips, recessions, and depressions.

I only started dabbling with them in the past year since so many became free to trade, just to get a little experience. I discovered two advantages that *do* apply to a passive investor like me:

Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Psychstache on April 01, 2020, 07:46:55 PM
I still canít comprehend why VTSAX is preferred over VTI, but thatís been asked in other posts.

Could also be an issue of access. I can buy VTSAX in my employer sponsored tax advantaged accounts (where 90+% of my invested money is) but not VTI.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: moneytaichi on April 07, 2020, 10:10:26 PM
What I didn't account for were the brakes Vanguard has implemented and the month long period between selling and buying VTSAX.
Use VTI and know what price you're getting.

Thanks -- what did you mean by the second half of your statement? "Know what you're getting"?

VTI is an ETF and is traded in real time.  VTSAX is a mutual fund and is done at "end of day" pricing.

If you place an order for VTI right now, you pay the current price and the transaction is almost immediate.  If you place an order for VTSAX right now, you will pay whatever the price closes out at at the end of the day.  I got boned by this a couple weeks ago when Trump held a press conference and declared a state of emergency.  My order was already placed, then in the last 30 minutes of trading the market shot up at a record pace and ended up like 9% for no fucking reason, and my transaction completed at the +9% end of day price.

I had the same experience when buying VIIIX and learned it the hard way. My retirement is in Fidelity, which only offers mutual funds. Now I use the prices of VTI (ETF) as a bench mark for VIIIX (mutual fund). If the VTI's prices rise or drop to my desired % change, I'd issue VIIIX transaction in the last 5 minutes and pray that neither my computer nor the trading system will crash in the last 5 minutes :-) It worked out well for me for a couple of transactions already.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: dragoncar on May 28, 2020, 01:22:25 AM
This move might have most forum regulars face palming (more than this entire thread).

Last night I put in a trade that was executed this morning selling 469.41 shares @ $63.91 each, taking a loss of $1,046.78 from my purchase on 3/15. My hypothesis is that VTSAX will again be lower than its current price at which point I will buy back in at a discount. Keep your fingers crossed for me and stay healthy everyone.

Where we at now?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: mrmoonymartian on May 28, 2020, 01:47:01 AM
This move might have most forum regulars face palming (more than this entire thread).

Last night I put in a trade that was executed this morning selling 469.41 shares @ $63.91 each, taking a loss of $1,046.78 from my purchase on 3/15. My hypothesis is that VTSAX will again be lower than its current price at which point I will buy back in at a discount. Keep your fingers crossed for me and stay healthy everyone.

Where we at now?
74.80 facepalms.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: The_Big_H on May 28, 2020, 02:44:42 AM
This move might have most forum regulars face palming (more than this entire thread).

Last night I put in a trade that was executed this morning selling 469.41 shares @ $63.91 each, taking a loss of $1,046.78 from my purchase on 3/15. My hypothesis is that VTSAX will again be lower than its current price at which point I will buy back in at a discount. Keep your fingers crossed for me and stay healthy everyone.

Where we at now?

Seeing as how the price only dipped minorly (<5%) from 3/27 - 4/6 I think we are at a $1046.78 lesson in market timing.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on May 28, 2020, 08:42:25 AM
What I didn't account for were the brakes Vanguard has implemented and the month long period between selling and buying VTSAX.
You can avoid that by switching to ETF shares.  VTSAX and VTI are the exact same thing - Vanguard actually pools them together, behind the scenes, using some patented approach.  I believe you can even ask Vanguard to convert VTSAX into VTI shares.

With ETF shares, there's no monthly restrictions.  For VTI in particular, it's very frequently traded, so there isn't even a bid-ask spread.  Both buys and sells trade in the middle of a 1 penny range.  ETF trades cost $0 at Vanguard, so you don't pay anything to trade shares of VTI.

Consider if you don't switch to ETF shares, the next delayed sale might go against you.  For example, stocks dropped on 3/12, when your sell order got in too late.  The next day, President Trump declared a state of emergency, markets made gains, and after that your sell order executed.  Compare that delay to selling VTI (Vanguard Total Stock Market, ETF shares)... during market hours, the sale happens immediately.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Full_Beard on June 02, 2020, 11:38:12 PM
Where we at now?
That is the $64K question. For some, the markets are still rational and forward-looking. To others, at present, they are unrealistically optimistic in their forward-looking. I'm in the latter category.

1. The earnings in P/E ratios seem totally irrelevant. Sure, we're expecting a turn around, but P/E ratios were already high going into 2020 and now that earnings have taken a massive hit and experts don't expect them to return to 2020 levels from 2 maybe 10 years from now, stock prices are insanely high.

2. Stock buybacks accounted for the single largest source of demand over the last several years. That demand has been significantly diminished.

3. Whether the economy takes off in the 3rd quarter of 2020 or the 3rd quarter of 2021 is 50-50, yet the markets seem think it's almost certainly the 3rd quarter of 2020.

4. Our national debt is over $23 trillion. Yet, you don't hear a whisper about that, even from the fiscal conservatives who couldn't do anything but complain about that since the beginning of time.

5. Unemployment is off the charts. That's not going to snap back into place the month after the vaccine is released.

The bulls among us -- I wish you well and hope my own pessimism is unwarranted. I pulled out of all equities a year ago and remain on the sidelines. I will be fine if all returns to normal and the SP500 never drops below 3000 again. I hope you will be fine it drops to 2000. This isn't a zero sum game; we're here to trade ideas and information, not root for each other's demise.

Cheers.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: BigMoneyJim on June 03, 2020, 12:04:36 AM
I pulled out of all equities a year ago and remain on the sidelines. I will be fine if all returns to normal and the SP500 never drops below 3000 again.

I don't know if I'm a bull or bear right now. I'm just really confused about the apparent market optimism versus how the world looks today and how it looked a few months ago when nominal prices were here.

However, do remember that cash also can vary greatly in value. It's been quite a few yearsómaybe 15-20ósince I last believed and argued this, but the time may be coming soon where "cash is overvalued".

Or not.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: dragoncar on June 03, 2020, 12:13:08 AM

I pulled out of all equities a year ago and remain on the sidelines. I will be fine if all returns to normal and the SP500 never drops below 3000 again.

Will you buy back in if it never drops again?  If so, at what point?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Full_Beard on June 03, 2020, 12:59:51 AM

Will you buy back in if it never drops again?  If so, at what point?
Yes, extremely likely.

Not sure at what point. Initially, I was thinking if SP500 hit 2300, and then it did rapidly and I took a whiff at a grand slam opportunity (in hindsight, of course). So I don't know. I'd like to see some better fundamentals, better leadership, etc. That would restore my own confidence. I'm not in a rush and will be pleasantly surprised if the SP500 lingers at 3000-3500 over the next 3 years.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on June 03, 2020, 02:33:08 AM
Full_Beard - Why not invest in international equities, instead?

For me, I plan to keep at least 50% invested (half U.S., half international).  If I make a mistake in market timing, that limits my mistake to one half of my portfolio.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: waltworks on June 03, 2020, 07:18:28 AM
Yeah, if you don't like US equities valuations, you should be investing elsewhere, not sitting in cash (especially if you're worried about the national debt/inflation).

But whatever. Some people are not cut out to be in equities. If the S&P takes a dump, I'll buy more. If it doesn't, I'll buy more.

-W
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: ChpBstrd on June 03, 2020, 08:42:46 AM
Full_Beard - Why not invest in international equities, instead?

Lack of a Powell put?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Full_Beard on June 03, 2020, 02:59:21 PM
The inexplicable response of the U.S. stock markets to the economic situation is also happening around the world (and perhaps inexplicable is the wrong word since explanations are coming out every day). The poster child for that is Iran:

https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/05/21/why-iran-has-the-worlds-best-performing-stockmarket

And the poster child for the U.S.'s market insanity are the cruise line stocks. Losing $250M per month, can't sail in Canada through early fall or in the U.S. through mid-summer (and maybe longer). And here's a foreboding event: a fishing vessel with 127 crew that instituted pre-boarding testing measures and pre-boarding quarantine measures lasted only a week or so at sea before 85 of those 127 tested positive, forcing the vessel back to port:

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/american-seafoods-factory-trawler-returns-to-seattle-after-85-crew-members-test-positive-for-covid-19/

Anyone think the cruise lines can institute those relatively strict measures for 4,000 passengers? Actually, they'd have to be stricter because they didn't work.

Morgan Stanley just trashed the cruise line stocks as well. Yet, the market reacts by buying more of them - the prices have been soaring, through today!

I'm sticking to the maxim, be afraid when everyone's greedy and be greedy when everyone's afraid. I personally see us in the greedy phase right now.

Make no mistake - I have moderate confidence in my own lack of confidence. If we have a vaccine by early January - early March, I can see the entire situation becoming a rear-view memory by June 2021 and the summer tourism providing a swift and symbolic boost to world economies. But, my view is that that outcome is less than 50-50 and one I'm not going to wager on. On other hand, it is possible that the large assumption of corporate debt to, in part, finance buybacks for many years eventually comes home to roost, the unemployment numbers were seeing crushes consumer spending for many more months, the government is unwilling or unable to spend its way out of it while holding $25 - $30 trillion in debt, and then there's a significant drop in the prices/values of many companies. We hit bottom somewhere in 2021 or 2022 and then begin a slow climb upward that takes 2-10 years before the market is at its early 2020 high. That scenario seems more likely to me, even though I wouldn't bet the house on that either.

So, here I am, sitting on 20+ years of retirement savings through buy-and-hold investing, unwilling to continue that method given the economic and political situations. I'm okay with that for the time being. I'll get back into stocks in either of the above scenarios; it's just a matter of when. I'm not trying to time the market; I'm hoping to regain confidence in our economic situation.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: habaneroNorway on June 03, 2020, 03:43:22 PM
I'll be the first to admit that the levels equities trade at currently, or more precisely how fast and sharp the turnaround was make no sense to me whatsoever. But I have read the books, read the posts etc and I have kept to my plan by buying at a steady pace no matter what happens and not sold anything despite it being tempting and as per now, in hindsight, also the wrong thing to do. Per my AA I have a decent amount of cash at hand so I did put some more to work over the last few months then I normally would to "catch up", but in hindsight I should have bought even more equities. But the plan is the plan and it should be stuck to.

What the swift and sharp downturn revealed for me is that I am quite comfy with my current risk level and could increase it a bit over time. I'm currently at about 60/15/25 equities/bonds/cash but that is partly due to the available bond universe is vastly smaller for me than for a US based investor and it doesnt really make that much sense to own bonds and at current yields its not something I really want more of as the upside is very. very small. My "bond" part is not really bonds, but it's FDIC insured bank accounts with a fixed rate for a set time and a weird retirement scheme I won't go into details about but it has bond-like characteristics like a guaranteed minimum return per year  but some limited equity upside sprinkled on top.

I did read an interesting post the other day, point was that people worry about the left tail. But there is a right tail. With money being free at 0% interest rates and the government pretty guaranteeing no defaults and probably willing to support equity markets directly if need be, do you really want to leave out the possibility of a right-tail event?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: dragoncar on June 03, 2020, 04:39:36 PM
I still think there is an inflation mystery here.  Inflation was recently reported very low.  Mortgage rates are down, bond rates are down, again implying investors do not fear inflation.  The fed is pulling out all stops. Maybe the SPY lingers around 3000 for a few years but inflation increases (ie inflation-adjusted losses)?

Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: waltworks on June 03, 2020, 05:22:15 PM
So, here I am, sitting on 20+ years of retirement savings through buy-and-hold investing, unwilling to continue that method given the economic and political situations. I'm okay with that for the time being. I'll get back into stocks in either of the above scenarios; it's just a matter of when. I'm not trying to time the market; I'm hoping to regain confidence in our economic situation.

Dude, you gotta own it. What you are doing is the *definition* of market timing.

That's fine, if that's what you want to try to do - I assume you know the odds. It would help if you had a specific plan (ie, "I'll buy back it at level X, unless that doesn't happen within Y months, otherwise I'll buy back in then") because freaking out and selling is easy. Buying back in is what trips people up. If you don't even have a plan for when to do that... well, good luck.

If you've been at this for 20 years hopefully you've seen (like me) a lot of weird stuff that basically goes to show that the market isn't predictable in any useful way. You gotta just figure out an AA that lets you sleep at night and plug away.

-W
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Full_Beard on June 03, 2020, 05:37:46 PM
So, here I am, sitting on 20+ years of retirement savings through buy-and-hold investing, unwilling to continue that method given the economic and political situations. I'm okay with that for the time being. I'll get back into stocks in either of the above scenarios; it's just a matter of when. I'm not trying to time the market; I'm hoping to regain confidence in our economic situation.

Dude, you gotta own it. What you are doing is the *definition* of market timing.

That's fine, if that's what you want to try to do - I assume you know the odds. It would help if you had a specific plan (ie, "I'll buy back it at level X, unless that doesn't happen within Y months, otherwise I'll buy back in then") because freaking out and selling is easy. Buying back in is what trips people up. If you don't even have a plan for when to do that... well, good luck.

If you've been at this for 20 years hopefully you've seen (like me) a lot of weird stuff that basically goes to show that the market isn't predictable in any useful way. You gotta just figure out an AA that lets you sleep at night and plug away.

-W

Fair enough. I had said that I'm not trying to time it because I'll happily jump back in with the SP500 at 3500 when the situation normalizes a little. And, for the record, I didn't freak out and sell. I sold in April 2019 for a variety of reasons upon which I reflected and consulted others, such as: (1) I hit an amount on which my wife and I can retire when we're ready and (2) my personal view of the crappy politico-economy and overvalued nature of stocks (and yes, that was looking through a 2019 lens). Certainly, I don't (and couldn't, in hindsight) claim that my personal view is or was "the" right view. It was just right for me. And it's not cash. I'm in pathetic bonds, a fraction of a percent better than cash. :)

What we're seeing now is unprecedented. It's not the Internet bubble of the late 1990s and it's not the mortgage-backed securities sucker hole of the naughts. I will get back in, for sure. And I have some numbers in my mind, but there's a confidence factor that can't be reduced to words that's driving this.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: waltworks on June 03, 2020, 05:59:16 PM
What we're seeing now is unprecedented.

Lol. Yes, just like every day when you wake up.

Good luck.

-W
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on June 03, 2020, 11:25:46 PM
There's many articles like this one reporting increased cruise line bookings:
https://globalnews.ca/news/6937576/cruise-bookings-rise-coronavirus/
"Cruise ship bookings jump 600% as Carnival reveals plans to resume trips in August"

I'd agree that sounds too soon, which leads me to the bear case for vaccines.  Historically, a vaccine is not found within a few years of the first outbreak.  There's no vaccine for SARS or MERS, both corona viruses.  The good news and market rally is based on stage I trials, which are the easy part: there is only a 33% failure rate at that stage.

But a counter argument, and the bull case, is that normally most health care research isn't being directed at one disease.  Before 2020, costly approaches to vaccine development were not used - they wouldn't be profitable.  But with almost 8 billion people needing a vaccine, the market suddenly makes new techniques cost effective.  This article claims that vaccine research and production infrastructure will make a permanent step forward as a result of all the recent investment to combat COVID-19:
https://www.genengnews.com/topics/bioprocessing/covid-19-will-have-long-lasting-impact-on-biopharma-manufacturing/
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: jsloan on June 04, 2020, 07:12:49 AM
I'm a lurker on this website and more active trader than some here, but I wanted to throw in my 2 cents.  You don't have to get it 100% right when timing a bottom or top. You just have to be generally right.  I'm current +10% from my all time high in Feb as of yesterday.  I did pull out my active/retirement funds on Feb and re-entered the market in early April.  I'm also invested in some individual companies and stocks that I feel are still under valued based on the temporary Coronavirus pandemic. 

As of today I'm a successful market timer, if I had just let my investments ride I would still be down about -9%, instead I'm up +10%.  With that said, I don't trust this rally at all and I still have a 40% cash allocation.  I was expecting to get back in the market knowing that it may continue to go down but I would limit my losses, I did not expect the recent growth.  I plan to continue getting back in the market with my remaining cash, but very slowly.  I don't trust the current market for many reasons: Coronavirus 2nd wave, fed printer, civil unrest, continued deregulation and lowered demand.  At this point do we really expect the market to just continue hitting all time highs despite all these issues?       

       
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: frugalnacho on June 04, 2020, 07:29:16 AM
There's many articles like this one reporting increased cruise line bookings:
https://globalnews.ca/news/6937576/cruise-bookings-rise-coronavirus/
"Cruise ship bookings jump 600% as Carnival reveals plans to resume trips in August"

I'd agree that sounds too soon, which leads me to the bear case for vaccines.  Historically, a vaccine is not found within a few years of the first outbreak.  There's no vaccine for SARS or MERS, both corona viruses.  The good news and market rally is based on stage I trials, which are the easy part: there is only a 33% failure rate at that stage.

But a counter argument, and the bull case, is that normally most health care research isn't being directed at one disease.  Before 2020, costly approaches to vaccine development were not used - they wouldn't be profitable.  But with almost 8 billion people needing a vaccine, the market suddenly makes new techniques cost effective.  This article claims that vaccine research and production infrastructure will make a permanent step forward as a result of all the recent investment to combat COVID-19:
https://www.genengnews.com/topics/bioprocessing/covid-19-will-have-long-lasting-impact-on-biopharma-manufacturing/

I know I've said this before, but we don't have vaccines for SARS or MERS because almost no one gives a fuck.  SARS had 774 deaths in total and we haven't seen a case since 2004.  MERS is still ongoing, but only had a total of 866 deaths.  In contrast coronavirus has 6.6M+ cases and 389k deaths, and is still accelerating in many parts of the world.   In terms of total infections, total deaths, economic disruption, and daily disruption to people's everyday lives coronavirus is many, many, many orders of magnitude larger.  And likewise the amount of interest and resources being focussed at the coronavirus is many orders of magnitude larger.  The research and resources being poured into coronavirus aren't even comparable to SARS or MERS.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: waltworks on June 04, 2020, 08:29:25 AM
  At this point do we really expect the market to just continue hitting all time highs despite all these issues?             

The market is *often* hitting all-time highs. Not an unusual situation at all. It's within 5% of the all time high about 1/3 of the time.

That's what you'd expect from something that noisily trends upward (so far).

For reference, too, average return the year following an all-time high? 8.9% (nominal).

Congratulations on making 10% (assuming you didn't increase your cash position when you sold, that wasn't totally clear). The risk you took to get that was a pretty big one, though, and I'd strongly suggest taking your winnings and "walking away" - which in this case would mean, of course, leaving them in play, since you're the casino.

Again, I think stocks are crazy overvalued in the US too. But I've thought that lots of times in the last 20 years and been wrong enough to be glad I never acted on those feelings.

-W
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on June 04, 2020, 08:33:16 AM
There's many articles like this one reporting increased cruise line bookings:
https://globalnews.ca/news/6937576/cruise-bookings-rise-coronavirus/
"Cruise ship bookings jump 600% as Carnival reveals plans to resume trips in August"

I'd agree that sounds too soon, which leads me to the bear case for vaccines.  Historically, a vaccine is not found within a few years of the first outbreak.  There's no vaccine for SARS or MERS, both corona viruses.  The good news and market rally is based on stage I trials, which are the easy part: there is only a 33% failure rate at that stage.

But a counter argument, and the bull case, is that normally most health care research isn't being directed at one disease.  Before 2020, costly approaches to vaccine development were not used - they wouldn't be profitable.  But with almost 8 billion people needing a vaccine, the market suddenly makes new techniques cost effective.  This article claims that vaccine research and production infrastructure will make a permanent step forward as a result of all the recent investment to combat COVID-19:
https://www.genengnews.com/topics/bioprocessing/covid-19-will-have-long-lasting-impact-on-biopharma-manufacturing/
I know I've said this before, but we don't have vaccines for SARS or MERS because almost no one gives a fuck.  SARS had 774 deaths in total and we haven't seen a case since 2004.  MERS is still ongoing, but only had a total of 866 deaths.  In contrast coronavirus has 6.6M+ cases and 389k deaths, and is still accelerating in many parts of the world.   In terms of total infections, total deaths, economic disruption, and daily disruption to people's everyday lives coronavirus is many, many, many orders of magnitude larger.  And likewise the amount of interest and resources being focussed at the coronavirus is many orders of magnitude larger.  The research and resources being poured into coronavirus aren't even comparable to SARS or MERS.
I count 50 vaccine candidates for MERS-Cov, which argues against your claim that "almost no one gives a fuck".  It doesn't matter if "many orders of magnitude" of people are interested, what counts is the medical research.  Do you think there's 50,000 vaccine candidates for SARS-Cov-2?
https://www.who.int/who-documents-detail/overview-of-the-types-classes-of-candidate-vaccines-against-mers-cov

A MERS vaccine was being worked on when COVID-19 broke out.  The MERS vaccine trials reached stage 2 clinical testing in Saudi Arabia earlier this year.  One of the front runners for a SARS-Cov-2 vaccine was the same Oxford researchers developing a MERS vaccine - they used the same technique, and would not have been a front runner if they weren't already working on a MERS vaccine.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: frugalnacho on June 04, 2020, 08:43:49 AM
There's many articles like this one reporting increased cruise line bookings:
https://globalnews.ca/news/6937576/cruise-bookings-rise-coronavirus/
"Cruise ship bookings jump 600% as Carnival reveals plans to resume trips in August"

I'd agree that sounds too soon, which leads me to the bear case for vaccines.  Historically, a vaccine is not found within a few years of the first outbreak.  There's no vaccine for SARS or MERS, both corona viruses.  The good news and market rally is based on stage I trials, which are the easy part: there is only a 33% failure rate at that stage.

But a counter argument, and the bull case, is that normally most health care research isn't being directed at one disease.  Before 2020, costly approaches to vaccine development were not used - they wouldn't be profitable.  But with almost 8 billion people needing a vaccine, the market suddenly makes new techniques cost effective.  This article claims that vaccine research and production infrastructure will make a permanent step forward as a result of all the recent investment to combat COVID-19:
https://www.genengnews.com/topics/bioprocessing/covid-19-will-have-long-lasting-impact-on-biopharma-manufacturing/
I know I've said this before, but we don't have vaccines for SARS or MERS because almost no one gives a fuck.  SARS had 774 deaths in total and we haven't seen a case since 2004.  MERS is still ongoing, but only had a total of 866 deaths.  In contrast coronavirus has 6.6M+ cases and 389k deaths, and is still accelerating in many parts of the world.   In terms of total infections, total deaths, economic disruption, and daily disruption to people's everyday lives coronavirus is many, many, many orders of magnitude larger.  And likewise the amount of interest and resources being focussed at the coronavirus is many orders of magnitude larger.  The research and resources being poured into coronavirus aren't even comparable to SARS or MERS.
I count 50 vaccine candidates for MERS-Cov, which argues against your claim that "almost no one gives a fuck".  It doesn't matter if "many orders of magnitude" of people are interested, what counts is the medical research.  Do you think there's 50,000 vaccine candidates for SARS-Cov-2?
https://www.who.int/who-documents-detail/overview-of-the-types-classes-of-candidate-vaccines-against-mers-cov

A MERS vaccine was being worked on when COVID-19 broke out.  The MERS vaccine trials reached stage 2 clinical testing in Saudi Arabia earlier this year.  One of the front runners for a SARS-Cov-2 vaccine was the same Oxford researchers developing a MERS vaccine - they used the same technique, and would not have been a front runner if they weren't already working on a MERS vaccine.

I meant by comparison to coronavirus.  Yes some people have been working on vaccines for SARS and MERS, and they are now building on that research for the coronavirus.  I don't expect the number of vaccine candidates to be orders of magnitude greater, but the money and time being spent on the available candidates has increased.  I would be very interested in seeing the total amount of resources that have been dedicated to each, and I would be shocked if MERS or SARS had received more than a small fraction that's been dedicated to the coronavirus. 
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on June 04, 2020, 09:12:53 AM
There's many articles like this one reporting increased cruise line bookings:
https://globalnews.ca/news/6937576/cruise-bookings-rise-coronavirus/
"Cruise ship bookings jump 600% as Carnival reveals plans to resume trips in August"

I'd agree that sounds too soon, which leads me to the bear case for vaccines.  Historically, a vaccine is not found within a few years of the first outbreak.  There's no vaccine for SARS or MERS, both corona viruses.  The good news and market rally is based on stage I trials, which are the easy part: there is only a 33% failure rate at that stage.

But a counter argument, and the bull case, is that normally most health care research isn't being directed at one disease.  Before 2020, costly approaches to vaccine development were not used - they wouldn't be profitable.  But with almost 8 billion people needing a vaccine, the market suddenly makes new techniques cost effective.  This article claims that vaccine research and production infrastructure will make a permanent step forward as a result of all the recent investment to combat COVID-19:
https://www.genengnews.com/topics/bioprocessing/covid-19-will-have-long-lasting-impact-on-biopharma-manufacturing/
I know I've said this before, but we don't have vaccines for SARS or MERS because almost no one gives a fuck.  SARS had 774 deaths in total and we haven't seen a case since 2004.  MERS is still ongoing, but only had a total of 866 deaths.  In contrast coronavirus has 6.6M+ cases and 389k deaths, and is still accelerating in many parts of the world.   In terms of total infections, total deaths, economic disruption, and daily disruption to people's everyday lives coronavirus is many, many, many orders of magnitude larger.  And likewise the amount of interest and resources being focussed at the coronavirus is many orders of magnitude larger.  The research and resources being poured into coronavirus aren't even comparable to SARS or MERS.
I count 50 vaccine candidates for MERS-Cov, which argues against your claim that "almost no one gives a fuck".  It doesn't matter if "many orders of magnitude" of people are interested, what counts is the medical research.  Do you think there's 50,000 vaccine candidates for SARS-Cov-2?
https://www.who.int/who-documents-detail/overview-of-the-types-classes-of-candidate-vaccines-against-mers-cov

A MERS vaccine was being worked on when COVID-19 broke out.  The MERS vaccine trials reached stage 2 clinical testing in Saudi Arabia earlier this year.  One of the front runners for a SARS-Cov-2 vaccine was the same Oxford researchers developing a MERS vaccine - they used the same technique, and would not have been a front runner if they weren't already working on a MERS vaccine.
I meant by comparison to coronavirus.  Yes some people have been working on vaccines for SARS and MERS, and they are now building on that research for the coronavirus.  I don't expect the number of vaccine candidates to be orders of magnitude greater, but the money and time being spent on the available candidates has increased.  I would be very interested in seeing the total amount of resources that have been dedicated to each, and I would be shocked if MERS or SARS had received more than a small fraction that's been dedicated to the coronavirus.
Additional funding has encouraged more advanced - but more costly - vaccine research.  But those resources are only meaningful to the extent they translate into treatment, right?  That's why I'm using the yardstick of vaccine candidates - if those succeed, COVID-19 can be over.  If they fail, the greater resources were not enough.  Last I checked there were about 170 SARS-Cov-2 vaccine attempts, and MERS had about 50.  The greater resources have translated to more vaccine attempts now - and maybe more in future months - but it's not as great an influx as you believe.  Or if I'm missing something, how can resources cure COVID-19 without a vaccine?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: frugalnacho on June 04, 2020, 09:57:15 AM
I really don't know what goes into medical or vaccine research.  My gut instinct is telling me it's not nearly as simplistic as 50 MERS candidates vs 170 SARS-Cov-2 candidates translating to 3.4X the resources being spent, or 3.4X the chance of success.  I suspect the money and time being devoted to the research is orders of magnitudes greater, since the impact and consequences are orders of magnitudes greater. 
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Psychstache on June 04, 2020, 10:32:36 AM

Dude, you gotta own it. What you are doing is the *definition* of market timing.


Fair enough. I had said that I'm not trying to time it because I'll happily jump back in with the SP500 at 3500 when the situation normalizes a little.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_timing#:~:text=Market%20timing%20is%20the%20strategy,from%20technical%20or%20fundamental%20analysis.

Market timing is the strategy of making buying or selling decisions of financial assets (often stocks) by attempting to predict future market price movements. The prediction may be based on an outlook of market or economic conditions resulting from technical or fundamental analysis.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/markettiming.asp

Market timing is a type of investment or trading strategy. It is the act of moving in and out of a financial market or switching between asset classes based on predictive methods. These predictive tools include following technical indicators or economic data, to gauge how the market is going to move.

https://www.merrilledge.com/article/focus-on-time-in-market-not-market-timing

Market timing is an investing strategy in which the investor tries to identify the best times to be in the market and when to get out.


I'm with walt on this. It's your money so you can do what you want, but it seems silly to say what you are currently doing is not market timing.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: dragoncar on June 04, 2020, 12:05:35 PM

Dude, you gotta own it. What you are doing is the *definition* of market timing.


Fair enough. I had said that I'm not trying to time it because I'll happily jump back in with the SP500 at 3500 when the situation normalizes a little.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_timing#:~:text=Market%20timing%20is%20the%20strategy,from%20technical%20or%20fundamental%20analysis.

Market timing is the strategy of making buying or selling decisions of financial assets (often stocks) by attempting to predict future market price movements. The prediction may be based on an outlook of market or economic conditions resulting from technical or fundamental analysis.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/markettiming.asp

Market timing is a type of investment or trading strategy. It is the act of moving in and out of a financial market or switching between asset classes based on predictive methods. These predictive tools include following technical indicators or economic data, to gauge how the market is going to move.

https://www.merrilledge.com/article/focus-on-time-in-market-not-market-timing

Market timing is an investing strategy in which the investor tries to identify the best times to be in the market and when to get out.


I'm with walt on this. It's your money so you can do what you want, but it seems silly to say what you are currently doing is not market timing.

You guys arenít wrong, but I think heís going for more of a ďrisk offĒ approach than ďI think the market will go downĒ.  He will see lower volatility at the price of missing gains.  It could be seen as a different version of a conservative portfolio where instead of always investing 60/40 and giving up total return for stability, you invest 100/0 but only 60% of the time and again give up total return for stability.

Yes itís still market timing but itís a different flavor than that we usually see around here
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Full_Beard on June 04, 2020, 12:16:17 PM
I'm with walt on this. It's your money so you can do what you want, but it seems silly to say what you are currently doing is not market timing.
Fine, call it market timing. The label is irrelevant and the quotes from wiki-whatever are pedantic. I pulled out of the market once in my life and haven't gotten back in yet. If that's market timing, I'm timing the market. I see no shame in that label or strategy. Stupidity? Maybe. History will be my judge, but as I said before, I'll happily jump back when even if SP 500 is at 3500 provided that there's some modicum of normalcy (pandemic, fundamentals, earnings, debt, etc) -- and normalcy, in my view, is a low standard. I stayed in the market through 1998-2019 (I didn't change a thing, i.e., monthly investments in SP500 index, including 2007-10).

RE vaccines: The time, energy, and money going into vaccine development is impressive. Realistically, if one is available in December, that would exceptional. From what I've read, it seems Feb. - June is probably a more realistic time frame in the optimistic world. In the pessimistic world, it could be over 2 years. I agree that the past coronaviruses aren't good benchmarks because there was far less interest in developing a vaccine.

And then, of course, once it's developed, distributing it to achieve herd immunity will be challenging, both in terms of numbers and both in terms of the (growing?) number anti-vaxxers who see it as Bill Gates conspiracy to take over the world. But, I see that as a speed bump in the larger view of the road ahead.

Re markets: I think we all agree that the prices are way overvalued today and that that has been the case for several years now (and periodically throughout time). In the past, those over-values were based on outlooks of growth. And I see the argument that as soon as this pandemic is behind us, the economy will enter super charge mode. I think there are a lot of predictions/bets that that will occur in the 4th quarter of this year, maybe even the third. I personally think that that is too optimistic. And if I'm wrong, that would be excellent news. There's a ton of suffering happening these days and it's disheartening, bordering on depressing, to read the news each day.

As for cruise ships, yes, of course they're reporting that bookings are doing fine. Anyone who didn't think they'd actually get a refund or didn't care for one, told the cruise companies to rebook for later in the year or 2021. Some are seeing the super cheap offerings and the opportunity to cancel later and saying, why not, count me in. My friend didn't officially cancel her May 25th trip to Italy until May 15th because Air Italia offered her that. My point is that I would read very little at this point in time into late 2020 bookings given the realities of group social gatherings and group travel. Anyway, I just used cruise stocks to as the poster child for today's market insanity. Maybe there are better examples.

Good luck, everyone.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: jsloan on June 04, 2020, 12:31:03 PM
Quote
Congratulations on making 10% (assuming you didn't increase your cash position when you sold, that wasn't totally clear). The risk you took to get that was a pretty big one, though, and I'd strongly suggest taking your winnings and "walking away" - which in this case would mean, of course, leaving them in play, since you're the casino.

Again, I think stocks are crazy overvalued in the US too. But I've thought that lots of times in the last 20 years and been wrong enough to be glad I never acted on those feelings.

You are 100% correct, I was expecting the market to continue to tank but instead it went up and I got lucky.  It was luck, but at the same time my decision to get back in the market was based on real data such as simple PE for companies that were hit by the downturn for no reason other than the entire market went down (ie tech companies). 

Now I feel that a lot of the market is overvalued based on those same metrics.  There are some deals to be had in areas we expect to bounce back but have not yet (hospitality, airlines, oil), but these are more risky.  Because of this I have been pulling money out of the market and am now sitting on 40% cash position.  I started the pullback about a month ago and worked my way up to where I'm at now. 

I know we don't have a crystal ball, but we do have eyes and ears.  I'm not a bear by any means, but the current market feels like how things felt in 2008, but different.  Lots of volatility, unemployment, and bankruptcies but with added unknown of unlimited QE (not a good long term solution).  Just putting everything back into VSTAX just doesn't seem sensible at the moment, but then again I could be 100% wrong and everything ends up fine.  Probably being right so far has given me the confidence (wrongly) to know what is coming next.             
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: waltworks on June 04, 2020, 02:05:49 PM
The problem is that P/E doesn't predict shit. Even CAPE is only like .4 R2 for future returns predicting purposes.

Nobody knows. Period.

-W
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: plog on June 04, 2020, 11:49:00 PM
Quote
I was expecting... It was luck, but at the same time my decision to get back in the market was based on real data...Now I feel...I know we don't have a crystal ball...the current market feels like how things felt in 2008, but different... doesn't seem sensible at the moment, but then again I could be 100% wrong and everything ends up fine.  Probably being right so far has given me the confidence (wrongly) to know what is coming next.

Falsifiability. That's the foundation of science.  Scientists make hypothesis then they immediately tell the world how they could be wrong and the manner in which someone can prove them wrong.  They welcome being proven wrong as much as having their hypothesis affirmed because whichever of those happen it means knowledge has been advanced.

The aim of this forum is finding the most efficient investing method and teaching others.  No one can deny your 'feelings' or counter your gut. Worse since you have no real method it can't be tested and can't be used to help anyone.  All your doing is using this forum to justify\validate your own investment method.  That's fine I guess, but your not really advancing the aim of this board.

There may be a way to efficiently market time.  But that method must be falsifiable, and not just based on gut feeling.  Use all the common market metric terms you want, but if your just looking at those numbers and 'feeling' things, it's not a real method.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: jsloan on June 05, 2020, 06:06:15 AM
Quote
Falsifiability. That's the foundation of science.  Scientists make hypothesis then they immediately tell the world how they could be wrong and the manner in which someone can prove them wrong.  They welcome being proven wrong as much as having their hypothesis affirmed because whichever of those happen it means knowledge has been advanced.

The aim of this forum is finding the most efficient investing method and teaching others.  No one can deny your 'feelings' or counter your gut. Worse since you have no real method it can't be tested and can't be used to help anyone.  All your doing is using this forum to justify\validate your own investment method.  That's fine I guess, but your not really advancing the aim of this board.

There may be a way to efficiently market time.  But that method must be falsifiable, and not just based on gut feeling.  Use all the common market metric terms you want, but if your just looking at those numbers and 'feeling' things, it's not a real method.

I have been an index investor since 2000 and I believe that in the long term it is the way to go.  I would disagree with you about applying the scientific method to economics (soft science).  The economy is not a machine or process that can be tested via the scientific method like the movement of planets.  We cannot prove economic outcomes based on hypothesis like we can with other hard sciences.  We can back test and make predictions, but those predictions can be very wrong in the short term and long term.  I agree that indexing is the best long term strategy in the US today, but I also don't believe 100% in the "efficient market" to say that indexing will work forever or in all situations.  The market is sometimes very irrational and can reflect incorrect information.         
 

         
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on June 05, 2020, 06:26:37 AM
The new techniques for vaccine development are safer than prior approaches.  You'll often hear vaccine trials establish if a drug is "safe and effective", which gives the newer technologies an advantage.  Markets won't wait for people to get injected with a vaccine - early news of a success story will send markets sharply higher.  So for the optimists who are timing the market, it's better to be "all in" earlier, when any news of a vaccine might get announced.

Maybe that's months, maybe it's years.  That uncertainty opens up room for pessimists to stay out of the market, waiting for a fresh wave of infections to close down the economy.  Only... I'm not sure people will go along with it.  Polls show Republicans are less afraid of catching COVID-19, suggesting a preference to keep the economy open.  The current mass protests are more allied with Democrats, and unlikely to stop owing to a second wave.  But it's possible the situation gets serious enough to change everyone's minds, and prove pessimists right.

I plan on checking the growth rates in COVID-19 cases before the markets open an hour from now.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: waltworks on June 05, 2020, 07:46:27 AM
I have been an index investor since 2000 and I believe that in the long term it is the way to go.  I would disagree with you about applying the scientific method to economics (soft science).  The economy is not a machine or process that can be tested via the scientific method like the movement of planets.  We cannot prove economic outcomes based on hypothesis like we can with other hard sciences.  We can back test and make predictions, but those predictions can be very wrong in the short term and long term.  I agree that indexing is the best long term strategy in the US today, but I also don't believe 100% in the "efficient market" to say that indexing will work forever or in all situations.  The market is sometimes very irrational and can reflect incorrect information.         

That's some serious word salad to just say "I'm going with my gut".

The economy doesn't have to be perfectly predictable for you to at least have a set of metrics or numbers that would justify getting in or out of the market. What you're doing is just letting your emotions make the decisions - and there are a huge number of built in cognitive biases (I'd argue valuing losses more than gains is the worst one when it comes to investing) which mean that your emotions are not going to serve you well.

Really, I always wonder what happens to the market timers. We hear from folks anytime the market is down, with the same basic story ("I just feel like values are crazy", "This time is different", "Trump/Obama/Iran/Covid19/whatever is going to crash everything") then they disappear. Hundreds of them over the years. @FinancialVelociraptor has stuck around  but he's a trader, not a market timer.

I'm assuming they're all still in their cubicles letting their lives slip away and sitting in cash. But who knows, maybe the pina coladas on the beach are too tasty to bother coming back to tell everyone how successful they've been.

-W
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: plog on June 05, 2020, 08:05:49 AM
Quote
I would disagree with you about applying the scientific method to economics (soft science).

You can apply the scientific method to determine the most efficient investing method if the investing method is well defined.  Your and my hypothesis is that index investing is more effective than randomly choosing actively managed funds or even choosing funds that recently beat indexes.  Those are well defined methods that we ( and everyone else)  can use data to test and falsify.  Thus far our hypothesis has withstood testing.

His hypothesis is that his gut is the most efficient method.  Thats not well defined because  only people with access to his gut are able to implement.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: mrmoonymartian on June 05, 2020, 08:09:48 AM
Quote
I would disagree with you about applying the scientific method to economics (soft science).

You can apply the scientific method to determine the most efficient investing method if the investing method is well defined.  Your and my hypothesis is that index investing is more effective than randomly choosing actively managed funds or even choosing funds that recently beat indexes.  Those are well defined methods that we ( and everyone else)  can use data to test and falsify.  Thus far our hypothesis has withstood testing.

His hypothesis is that his gut is the most efficient method.  Thats not well defined because  only people with access to his gut are able to implement.

Scalpel? Check.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: ChpBstrd on June 05, 2020, 10:06:56 AM
The problem is that P/E doesn't predict shit. Even CAPE is only like .4 R2 for future returns predicting purposes.

Nobody knows. Period.

-W

What is your method to avoid buying the equivalent of pets.com in 1999? Is all valuation bunk, or just PE/CAPE? Should one also buy bonds regardless of expected yield?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: waltworks on June 05, 2020, 10:15:02 AM
The problem is that P/E doesn't predict shit. Even CAPE is only like .4 R2 for future returns predicting purposes.

Nobody knows. Period.

-W

What is your method to avoid buying the equivalent of pets.com in 1999? Is all valuation bunk, or just PE/CAPE? Should one also buy bonds regardless of expected yield?

I think that the pets.com question is a little different, since you'd need to be trying to pick stocks (which I don't try to but at least think is theoretically doable). I'm referring purely to index investing. And yes, you might as well just buy regardless of valuation.

I mean, CAPE has been saying values are way above average and returns will suffer (if you subscribe to the CAPE-as-predictor notion) for the last decade. If you set aside a couple of months in 2009, it's been a "bad deal" for 30 years!

If you'd refused to invest because you didn't like the numbers that whole time, you would have royally screwed yourself.

You and I and everyone else, deep down, wants to believe that there's an underlying pattern here and that if we can just figure it out, it'll all make sense. But the evidence so far suggests that's not true - it's just chaos with an upward trend.

-W
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: ChpBstrd on June 05, 2020, 10:29:20 AM
Quote
I would disagree with you about applying the scientific method to economics (soft science).

You can apply the scientific method to determine the most efficient investing method if the investing method is well defined.  Your and my hypothesis is that index investing is more effective than randomly choosing actively managed funds or even choosing funds that recently beat indexes.  Those are well defined methods that we ( and everyone else)  can use data to test and falsify.  Thus far our hypothesis has withstood testing.

His hypothesis is that his gut is the most efficient method.  Thats not well defined because  only people with access to his gut are able to implement.

As best I can tell, the stock market is a system of randomly switching the most successful strategies. During one timeframe, momentum works and during another the dogs of the Dow method. One decade itís all about growth stocks and during another itís all about value. Sometimes small caps do better and other times large caps. Sometimes itís energy stocks and other times itís tech stocks. Sometimes being hyper-aggressive works and other times itís best to sit in cash. And while winning strategies are popping up randomly, the duration of each winning strategy also seems to be random, so that it is not possible to know that because strategy X worked during the last timeframe, it cannot also work this year/quarter/month/day because itís time to switch to a new strategy.

The thing driving this random strategy and random timeframe generator seems to be the behavior of investors who tend to chase the performance of the currently successful strategy until the trade becomes too crowded and must necessarily collapse. E.g. when everyone bids up the prices of a particular sector, prices rise so high that the possible ROI becomes lower. As another example, when lots of people go to cash in a panic because stocks fell in the past, the only thing left that could possibly happen is for lots of people to get back into stocks because the world runs out of investors who want to go to cash.

There are some claims that the market goes through predictable cycles, but Iím suspicious that any such clear signal would rapidly be arbitraged away. Thus the only signal the system can produce is a false signal and the only pattern it can have is randomness.

This is confusing because we all know earnings come from discrete events with causes. The consumer buys the item, the oil well strikes oil, the number of dollars increases, a terrorist attack occurs, etc. Weíre also told that the only reason to buy stocks is the expectation of future earnings. Yet, PE ratios and PEG ratios float around like random numbers.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: BicycleB on June 06, 2020, 01:07:39 PM
Quote
I would disagree with you about applying the scientific method to economics (soft science).

You can apply the scientific method to determine the most efficient investing method if the investing method is well defined.  Your and my hypothesis is that index investing is more effective than randomly choosing actively managed funds or even choosing funds that recently beat indexes.  Those are well defined methods that we ( and everyone else)  can use data to test and falsify.  Thus far our hypothesis has withstood testing.

His hypothesis is that his gut is the most efficient method.  Thats not well defined because  only people with access to his gut are able to implement.

To me it looks like you two (plog, waltworks) are misinterpreting @jsloan's remark:


I have been an index investor since 2000 and I believe that in the long term it is the way to go.  I would disagree with you about applying the scientific method to economics (soft science).  The economy is not a machine or process that can be tested via the scientific method like the movement of planets.  We cannot prove economic outcomes based on hypothesis like we can with other hard sciences.  We can back test and make predictions, but those predictions can be very wrong in the short term and long term.  I agree that indexing is the best long term strategy in the US today, but I also don't believe 100% in the "efficient market" to say that indexing will work forever or in all situations.  The market is sometimes very irrational and can reflect incorrect information.         
 

         

I don't think he/she is saying "my gut is the most efficient method." I also don't see that he/she is urging market timing. Am I missing something, or is the market timing by jsloan something that you just assume he/she is after? (Maybe I missed something upthread. Will also accept correction by jsloan!)

I think jsloan's remark simply means what it says: that economic matters cannot be scientifically tested. I think there's some truth to that assertion, because the economy is an interrelated single entity. As such, it is not subject to repeated trials with a control group. There is no control group, only the one economy that we live in, and identical conditions needed for a falsifiable scientific test are not available for repeated testing.

Instead, the economy contains many conditions that can be quantified and viewed as variables, such as 10 year CAPE. But it also contains other variables, so any "test" you do inherently contains varied conditions that may or may not invalidate the test. You can't really test it scientifically.

I'm not urging market timing either. I continue pondering, with a lean toward "don't freakin' time." But from a strict methodological view, jsloan looks right to me. Whether we attempt to market time or urge each other to stay far from it, our guesses about market dynamics aren't completely scientific.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: waltworks on June 06, 2020, 01:27:27 PM
He makes it clear that he is market timing upthread (sold in February, re-entered in April). Thus far successfully, which is why we're hearing about it here.

-W
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: v8rx7guy on June 06, 2020, 03:20:18 PM
He makes it clear that he is market timing upthread (sold in February, re-entered in April). Thus far successfully, which is why we're hearing about it here.

-W

You must have missed that he re sold in march 26 and is down another 7k
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: BicycleB on June 06, 2020, 07:24:32 PM
Ok, I misunderstood. I'll just state my own opinion. We have only one economy, so we can't really do scientific tests on it.

We can measure various data and theorize something about them, but we'll never be quite certain that we've extracted the key elements of the situation. (I mean, we can be certain all we want, but falsely so. We never really have proof.) I don't think this fact says we should market time or not, just that we are guessing as wisely as we can when we can make our decisions.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: waltworks on June 06, 2020, 07:37:12 PM
So to summarize: in history, market timing basically never works for anyone. But the world is an uncertain place, so maybe market timing actually works or maybe it doesn't?

I don't understand what you're trying to say here, I guess.

I don't think you need to get too far down the philosophy of science rabbit hole. This is statistics, not science. In the world of stock trading/investing, market timing does not work any more than random chance would suggest it would, in the dataset we have. People who try to market time repeatedly tend to lose money. That's been shown pretty convincingly many times. If you want to make an argument that the market is somehow going to become predictable in the future (which would open a *real* philosophical can of worms) by all means do it...

-W

Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Tyson on June 06, 2020, 10:18:12 PM
Quote
I would disagree with you about applying the scientific method to economics (soft science).

You can apply the scientific method to determine the most efficient investing method if the investing method is well defined.  Your and my hypothesis is that index investing is more effective than randomly choosing actively managed funds or even choosing funds that recently beat indexes.  Those are well defined methods that we ( and everyone else)  can use data to test and falsify.  Thus far our hypothesis has withstood testing.

His hypothesis is that his gut is the most efficient method.  Thats not well defined because  only people with access to his gut are able to implement.

As best I can tell, the stock market is a system of randomly switching the most successful strategies. During one timeframe, momentum works and during another the dogs of the Dow method. One decade itís all about growth stocks and during another itís all about value. Sometimes small caps do better and other times large caps. Sometimes itís energy stocks and other times itís tech stocks. Sometimes being hyper-aggressive works and other times itís best to sit in cash. And while winning strategies are popping up randomly, the duration of each winning strategy also seems to be random, so that it is not possible to know that because strategy X worked during the last timeframe, it cannot also work this year/quarter/month/day because itís time to switch to a new strategy.

The thing driving this random strategy and random timeframe generator seems to be the behavior of investors who tend to chase the performance of the currently successful strategy until the trade becomes too crowded and must necessarily collapse. E.g. when everyone bids up the prices of a particular sector, prices rise so high that the possible ROI becomes lower. As another example, when lots of people go to cash in a panic because stocks fell in the past, the only thing left that could possibly happen is for lots of people to get back into stocks because the world runs out of investors who want to go to cash.

There are some claims that the market goes through predictable cycles, but Iím suspicious that any such clear signal would rapidly be arbitraged away. Thus the only signal the system can produce is a false signal and the only pattern it can have is randomness.

This is confusing because we all know earnings come from discrete events with causes. The consumer buys the item, the oil well strikes oil, the number of dollars increases, a terrorist attack occurs, etc. Weíre also told that the only reason to buy stocks is the expectation of future earnings. Yet, PE ratios and PEG ratios float around like random numbers.

That's really smart and insightful.  Thanks.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: jsloan on June 07, 2020, 07:12:32 AM
Quote
I don't think he/she is saying "my gut is the most efficient method." I also don't see that he/she is urging market timing. Am I missing something, or is the market timing by jsloan something that you just assume he/she is after? (Maybe I missed something upthread. Will also accept correction by jsloan!)

Yes!  I am not a market timer (at least not until recently), I feel like Walt is trying to portray my decision to get out of the market earlier this year like I'm some kind of YOLO options trader :-).  The point of my post is that the market cannot be predicted, but there are moments when the US markets get out of whack and it can be very profitable to take a different course of action.  These events may only happen once every 7-10 years and in those situations it can be very profitable to hedge your positions.  I currently think we are in one of those corrections based on "gut + data".

In the same way we (bogleheads/mustashcians) rely on "rules" for indexing like 10% returns, your money will double every 7 years etc there are also very persuasive arguments to be had that this correction is not sustainable.  I don't have a crystal ball, but neither does anyone else.  When I see something like this: https://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.php (https://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.php) it does give me pause.  Do I think that everything Buffet has done is 100% correct?  No.  Do I think he has been right enough for me to listen and at consider that there may be other opinions/options in the current market?  Yes.

Sometimes moments like this are a good opportunity for any investor to reevaluate your beliefs, become more well rounded and learn something new.  I may be back to indexing in 6 months, lose my 10% winnings by withholding my remaining cash from the market, but ultimately I'll try to make the best decision based on the information I have at the time.  I value the opinion of this community because of dedication to help others even when it isn't what they want to hear.
 
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: des999 on June 07, 2020, 07:48:52 AM
Quote
I don't think he/she is saying "my gut is the most efficient method." I also don't see that he/she is urging market timing. Am I missing something, or is the market timing by jsloan something that you just assume he/she is after? (Maybe I missed something upthread. Will also accept correction by jsloan!)

Yes!  I am not a market timer (at least not until recently), I feel like Walt is trying to portray my decision to get out of the market earlier this year like I'm some kind of YOLO options trader :-).  The point of my post is that the market cannot be predicted, but there are moments when the US markets get out of whack and it can be very profitable to take a different course of action.  These events may only happen once every 7-10 years and in those situations it can be very profitable to hedge your positions.  I currently think we are in one of those corrections based on "gut + data".

In the same way we (bogleheads/mustashcians) rely on "rules" for indexing like 10% returns, your money will double every 7 years etc there are also very persuasive arguments to be had that this correction is not sustainable.  I don't have a crystal ball, but neither does anyone else.  When I see something like this: https://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.php (https://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.php) it does give me pause.  Do I think that everything Buffet has done is 100% correct?  No.  Do I think he has been right enough for me to listen and at consider that there may be other opinions/options in the current market?  Yes.

Sometimes moments like this are a good opportunity for any investor to reevaluate your beliefs, become more well rounded and learn something new.  I may be back to indexing in 6 months, lose my 10% winnings by withholding my remaining cash from the market, but ultimately I'll try to make the best decision based on the information I have at the time.  I value the opinion of this community because of dedication to help others even when it isn't what they want to hear.
 

hate to say it, but Walt is right.  What you just typed is market timing, even though you are trying to convince yourself it's not.

reevaluate AA, sure, take money out of the market, convince yourself you have data that shows now is not the time to be in the market, market timing.

the way you said take your 10% 'winnings' makes it sound like gambling....oh wait.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: waltworks on June 07, 2020, 01:33:36 PM
Ok, so I actually read that terrible gurufocus thing. They say:
"It has been unfortunate for investors who entered the market after the late 1990s. Since that time, the market has nearly always been overvalued, only dropping to fairly valued since the declines that began in 2008. "

But, um, that's not true. Because their metric didn't (like most) predict jack shit.

Let's say I had an only sort of ok job during that time (starting in January of 2000). I could only save $1500 a month to invest (most people on the forum/white collar professionals could invest a lot more than that, of course). My employer contributed nothing, nor did anyone else. And I started with zero.

Well, gosh, I made an annualized 8% return (admittedly a bit under the 10% historical average) and ended up (as of the end of May, I'm doing a little better as of today) with about $881k. In the FIRE ballpark for a single person without expensive tastes, on an investment rate that could reasonably be accomplished with an entry-level (ie, $40-50k/year) salary over a career half the length of normal.

How "unfortunate"! I hope you stayed in cash that whole time!

You can input your own numbers here if you're curious: https://dqydj.com/sp-500-periodic-reinvestment-calculator-dividends/

What kind of idiots wrote that stuff?

-W
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: frugalnacho on June 08, 2020, 07:35:49 AM
So translation:  I am NOT a market timer! I don't believe you can successfully time the market.  However I think this time is different and I can absolutely time the market just this once...

You try to distance yourself from market timing by claiming you aren't some YOLO options trader, but then go on to describe text book market timing. 

So what makes you so much more insightful and clever than literally the entire market?  Everything indicates it's over valued and you shouldn't buy it...yet here we are.  Historically the best move has been to put money in as soon as you have it, and leave it in indefinitely. 

I know you think something is different this time and it makes sense to wait it out, but that's ALWAYS the case.  In retrospect it's always easy to look back and say "wow, that was a great time to get in the market!" or "wow, that was a bad time to get in the market! I should have waited in cash for 6 months", but it's never that easy in real time, and statistically the answer is to put your money in the market and leave it, and that turns out to be true time and time again despite all the apprehension you feel in real time. 

This forum is littered with nearly identical arguments, but for various time frames.  Many people in 2013 put forth the same argument.  Stocks are overvalued and this is unsustainable, so I'm taking my ball and going home and I'll get back in when it inevitably crashes, see you suckers at the next crash.  Then the same in 2014.  And 2015. Etc.  You could find dozens and dozens of threads like that on these boards, and across the internet as well.  Everyone one of those people was presented with the argument that you can't successfully market time, and study after study shows this, yet for them it was so obvious things were different this time, despite the fact that they didn't have any information that the entire world didn't already have access to. 
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: mrmoonymartian on June 08, 2020, 08:52:42 AM
A broken clock is a meaningless jumble of atoms to the Amondawa people of the Amazon, who experience sequences of events without needing an abstract concept of time. Likewise, market timing is meaningless to the buy & hold people of the internet hinterland. There is understanding that stock prices go up and down, but no ability to ignore either the statistical likelihood of market timing failure or the haruspices intent on outsmarting the market. A buy and holder can be carefully coaxed out of the safe jungle into modern speculation, but they will still go outside to shit on any dreams of retiring earlier.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: v8rx7guy on June 08, 2020, 09:08:59 AM
Ok, I believe this to be an accurate summary of the market timing endeavors:

junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on Feb 7, 2019 at $67.59 each converting $60,354.43 into cash

junioroldtimer purchased 907.167 shares on Mar 13, 2020 at $66.14 each for gain in position of $1,294.78

However, he missed out on dividends totaling $1,282.58 during this time, for a market timing loss of $12.19 . BUT, he had the initial $60,354.43 invested in an Ally savings account for 1 year at a rate of 2.3% compounded monthly for a gain of $1,402.88 .

This brings the total position gain of "Market timing attempt #1" to be a gain of$1,390.69

Next, junioroldtimer sold 469.41 shares on Mar 27, 2020 at $63.91 each converting $30,000 into cash.

On Jun 5, 2020 the closing price was $78.85, meaning he had cost himself $7,012.99 after 10 weeks.


This is a potential total endeavor loss of $5,622.30
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: Tyson on June 08, 2020, 09:17:51 AM
So translation:  I am NOT a market timer! I don't believe you can successfully time the market.  However I think this time is different and I can absolutely time the market just this once...

You try to distance yourself from market timing by claiming you aren't some YOLO options trader, but then go on to describe text book market timing. 

So what makes you so much more insightful and clever than literally the entire market?  Everything indicates it's over valued and you shouldn't buy it...yet here we are.  Historically the best move has been to put money in as soon as you have it, and leave it in indefinitely. 

I know you think something is different this time and it makes sense to wait it out, but that's ALWAYS the case.  In retrospect it's always easy to look back and say "wow, that was a great time to get in the market!" or "wow, that was a bad time to get in the market! I should have waited in cash for 6 months", but it's never that easy in real time, and statistically the answer is to put your money in the market and leave it, and that turns out to be true time and time again despite all the apprehension you feel in real time. 

This forum is littered with nearly identical arguments, but for various time frames.  Many people in 2013 put forth the same argument.  Stocks are overvalued and this is unsustainable, so I'm taking my ball and going home and I'll get back in when it inevitably crashes, see you suckers at the next crash.  Then the same in 2014.  And 2015. Etc.  You could find dozens and dozens of threads like that on these boards, and across the internet as well.  Everyone one of those people was presented with the argument that you can't successfully market time, and study after study shows this, yet for them it was so obvious things were different this time, despite the fact that they didn't have any information that the entire world didn't already have access to.

I think the underlying issue with almost all of these people is they simply don't feel comfortable with their money in the market.  So that underlying discomfort causes them to make irrational decisions in order to feel a greater sense of control. 
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: frugalnacho on June 08, 2020, 09:24:24 AM
So translation:  I am NOT a market timer! I don't believe you can successfully time the market.  However I think this time is different and I can absolutely time the market just this once...

You try to distance yourself from market timing by claiming you aren't some YOLO options trader, but then go on to describe text book market timing. 

So what makes you so much more insightful and clever than literally the entire market?  Everything indicates it's over valued and you shouldn't buy it...yet here we are.  Historically the best move has been to put money in as soon as you have it, and leave it in indefinitely. 

I know you think something is different this time and it makes sense to wait it out, but that's ALWAYS the case.  In retrospect it's always easy to look back and say "wow, that was a great time to get in the market!" or "wow, that was a bad time to get in the market! I should have waited in cash for 6 months", but it's never that easy in real time, and statistically the answer is to put your money in the market and leave it, and that turns out to be true time and time again despite all the apprehension you feel in real time. 

This forum is littered with nearly identical arguments, but for various time frames.  Many people in 2013 put forth the same argument.  Stocks are overvalued and this is unsustainable, so I'm taking my ball and going home and I'll get back in when it inevitably crashes, see you suckers at the next crash.  Then the same in 2014.  And 2015. Etc.  You could find dozens and dozens of threads like that on these boards, and across the internet as well.  Everyone one of those people was presented with the argument that you can't successfully market time, and study after study shows this, yet for them it was so obvious things were different this time, despite the fact that they didn't have any information that the entire world didn't already have access to.

I think the underlying issue with almost all of these people is they simply don't feel comfortable with their money in the market.  So that underlying discomfort causes them to make irrational decisions in order to feel a greater sense of control.

I get that, but what I don't get is why they insist they aren't market timers.  If you don't feel comfortable having your money in the market because you think it's over valued, so you sell and sit in cash, you are literally the textbook definition of market timing.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: secondcor521 on June 08, 2020, 09:27:01 AM
So translation:  I am NOT a market timer! I don't believe you can successfully time the market.  However I think this time is different and I can absolutely time the market just this once...

You try to distance yourself from market timing by claiming you aren't some YOLO options trader, but then go on to describe text book market timing. 

So what makes you so much more insightful and clever than literally the entire market?  Everything indicates it's over valued and you shouldn't buy it...yet here we are.  Historically the best move has been to put money in as soon as you have it, and leave it in indefinitely. 

I know you think something is different this time and it makes sense to wait it out, but that's ALWAYS the case.  In retrospect it's always easy to look back and say "wow, that was a great time to get in the market!" or "wow, that was a bad time to get in the market! I should have waited in cash for 6 months", but it's never that easy in real time, and statistically the answer is to put your money in the market and leave it, and that turns out to be true time and time again despite all the apprehension you feel in real time. 

This forum is littered with nearly identical arguments, but for various time frames.  Many people in 2013 put forth the same argument.  Stocks are overvalued and this is unsustainable, so I'm taking my ball and going home and I'll get back in when it inevitably crashes, see you suckers at the next crash.  Then the same in 2014.  And 2015. Etc.  You could find dozens and dozens of threads like that on these boards, and across the internet as well.  Everyone one of those people was presented with the argument that you can't successfully market time, and study after study shows this, yet for them it was so obvious things were different this time, despite the fact that they didn't have any information that the entire world didn't already have access to.

I think the underlying issue with almost all of these people is they simply don't feel comfortable with their money in the market.  So that underlying discomfort causes them to make irrational decisions in order to feel a greater sense of control.

I get that, but what I don't get is why they insist they aren't market timers.  If you don't feel comfortable having your money in the market because you think it's over valued, so you sell and sit in cash, you are literally the textbook definition of market timing.

What amuses me is those who say that they are not market timers because they have an AA.  Which they regularly change and adjust strategically due to changes in the market.  Not here, but on another FIRE forum.  Um, OK, sure.  Not my monkeys.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: frugalnacho on June 08, 2020, 09:38:52 AM
Are you implying that rebalancing to maintain an AA is market timing? Or are you talking about the folks that alter their AA, like they maintain 50/50 stocks/bonds until a stock crash in which they decide to now be 70/30?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: secondcor521 on June 08, 2020, 10:09:51 AM
Are you implying that rebalancing to maintain an AA is market timing? Or are you talking about the folks that alter their AA, like they maintain 50/50 stocks/bonds until a stock crash in which they decide to now be 70/30?

The latter.  Especially when they change their AA multiple times per year.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: waltworks on June 08, 2020, 10:38:27 AM
A broken clock is a meaningless jumble of atoms to the Amondawa people of the Amazon, who experience sequences of events without needing an abstract concept of time. Likewise, market timing is meaningless to the buy & hold people of the internet hinterland. There is understanding that stock prices go up and down, but no ability to ignore either the statistical likelihood of market timing failure or the haruspices intent on outsmarting the market. A buy and holder can be carefully coaxed out of the safe jungle into modern speculation, but they will still go outside to shit on any dreams of retiring earlier.

I love you, Moony.

-W
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on June 08, 2020, 11:48:20 AM
In one of the "bottom is in" threads, I predicted the market bottom on Mar 19-20.  I pushed to 100% equities, and then switched 1/4th of my portfolio to deeply discounted individual stocks.  I saw COVID-19 spreading 5x a week... but testing ramping up 10x a week.  I have a very clear goal for when I stop market timing: COVID-19 recovery.  I don't know if that's months or years away, I just figured if I buy stocks at -65% discounts, and they recover, they could triple.  Now I wait to see if they go bankrupt, or recover.  It's an odd combination of market timing (switching 1/4th of my portfolio one time) and passive investing (waiting months or years for the value of my initial purchase to be realized, or be wrong).

I've been tracking 3 equal weighted stock picks since March 26 in "An experiment".  With the economy closed, it was common for them to trail their benchmark by -10% to -20%.  Now that the economy is reopening, my experiment is beating it's benchmark by +30%.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: dragoncar on June 08, 2020, 11:41:37 PM
So translation:  I am NOT a market timer! I don't believe you can successfully time the market.  However I think this time is different and I can absolutely time the market just this once...


I did rockclimbing once or twice.  Does that make me a rockclimber?  I was at the time I did the activity, but in general?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: jsloan on June 09, 2020, 05:32:56 AM
What does everyone think of my new tattoo?  :-)

(https://i.ibb.co/JjPvF8d/Market-Timer.png)



Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: MustacheAndaHalf on June 09, 2020, 05:59:11 AM
So translation:  I am NOT a market timer! I don't believe you can successfully time the market.  However I think this time is different and I can absolutely time the market just this once...
I did rockclimbing once or twice.  Does that make me a rockclimber?  I was at the time I did the activity, but in general?
Those one or two times, you were rock climbing.
Placing trades based on a future prediction of the market is an act of market timing.

I had index funds for years.  In March I sold based on the future, then I bought based on the future.  That was market timing.  Doesn't matter what I am - it's important to know that action involved market timing, which entails a risk of under performing the market.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: frugalnacho on June 09, 2020, 09:16:31 AM
So translation:  I am NOT a market timer! I don't believe you can successfully time the market.  However I think this time is different and I can absolutely time the market just this once...


I did rockclimbing once or twice.  Does that make me a rockclimber?  I was at the time I did the activity, but in general?

Do a rock climbing wall once, and no one calls you a rock climber.  Build a fence on your property, and no one calls you a fence builder.  But you fuck one goat...
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: frugalnacho on June 09, 2020, 09:18:46 AM
...but seriously, it would be pretty hard to take that claim seriously if you were making that claim from atop a rock wall, even if it was the first one you've climbed.
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: waltworks on June 09, 2020, 09:33:30 AM
What does everyone think of my new tattoo?  :-)

(https://i.ibb.co/JjPvF8d/Market-Timer.png)

You can get a matching "Cubicle Slave" tat for your other arm!

-W
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: UnleashHell on June 09, 2020, 09:39:09 AM
...but seriously, it would be pretty hard to take that claim seriously if you were making that claim from atop a rock wall, even if it was the first one you've climbed.

first goat or first rock wall?
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: BicycleB on June 09, 2020, 02:31:21 PM
...but seriously, it would be pretty hard to take that claim seriously if you were making that claim from atop a rock wall, even if it was the first one you've climbed.

first goat or first rock wall?

If @frugalnacho were at the top of the rock wall holding a goat, he'd be screwed either way (so to speak).
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: BicycleB on June 09, 2020, 02:31:58 PM
What does everyone think of my new tattoo?  :-)

(https://i.ibb.co/JjPvF8d/Market-Timer.png)

It's amusingly...timed.  :)
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: UnleashHell on June 09, 2020, 02:33:46 PM
...but seriously, it would be pretty hard to take that claim seriously if you were making that claim from atop a rock wall, even if it was the first one you've climbed.

first goat or first rock wall?

If @frugalnacho were at the top of the rock wall holding a goat, he'd be screwed either way (so to speak).
Well someone would be.
The top is in?????
Title: Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
Post by: DadJokes on June 09, 2020, 04:02:16 PM
...but seriously, it would be pretty hard to take that claim seriously if you were making that claim from atop a rock wall, even if it was the first one you've climbed.

first goat or first rock wall?

If @frugalnacho were at the top of the rock wall holding a goat, he'd be screwed either way (so to speak).
Well someone would be.
The top is in?????

Every rancher knows that the best place to screw livestock (or a goat in this case) is at the edge of a cliff. That way the livestock will push back.