Author Topic: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market  (Read 21545 times)

talltexan

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #50 on: February 13, 2019, 09:32:44 AM »
I still can't figure out why Trump being impeached would cause a stock market plunge.

1973-1974 was a horrendous bear market.

But 1998-1999 wasn't. And there was an impeachment in there, too.

jps

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #51 on: February 13, 2019, 09:35:37 AM »
This thread is helping me vicariously live out my market timing fantasies. All of the fun, none of the losses.

Thanks for the favor, OP.

MrOnyx

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #52 on: February 13, 2019, 09:52:12 AM »
I still can't figure out why Trump being impeached would cause a stock market plunge.

1973-1974 was a horrendous bear market.

But 1998-1999 wasn't. And there was an impeachment in there, too.

Off the top of my head, I can't think of any particular political event like this that caused a market drop, but let's go along with it anyway!

Also, I like to think that Trump being impeached is on the list of 'things we kinda expect to happen at some point', which means it'll have even less impact than it otherwise would have.

Joseppi

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #53 on: February 13, 2019, 09:57:20 AM »
Wonder if Brexit will have a negative (positive for buyers!) impact on markets?? I'm sure OP is hoping so.

Interested observer.

stashing_it

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #54 on: February 13, 2019, 10:01:13 AM »
My question to the OP is, when would you buy back in if you are wrong?

Let's say that instead of a Trump impeachment what we get is
- Mueller investigation ramps up, some Trump aides are charged / convicted of perjury and obstruction, but no one is charged with Russia collusion, and Trump is not charged with anything
- There is some border deal that avoids any painful shutdown
- There is a China deal that improves the trade / IP theft situation

And let's say that SP 500 is up 10% by the end of the year

Do you take your missed gains then, and buy back in, or remain sitting out?

sol

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #55 on: February 13, 2019, 10:09:53 AM »
Timing the general market isn't for me, but good luck! 

I hope this works out for the OP.

I do too, but mostly because I'd love a few years of real nice discounts.

You just had a 20% decline back in December, remember?  What more do you want?

Have we already forgotten what the forum was like in December?  So much doom and gloom, "the recession is here" talk and lots of people posting their six figure losses.  The top was in, right?

Oh wait, it's almost like we're all terrible at timing the market.  Because things have been great since then, instead of terrible.

theolympians

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #56 on: February 13, 2019, 10:41:46 AM »
The news is always bad. Experts are always worried. If you are being affected by news reports, look away and return in a year.

One caveat: Sanders is elected prez, Booker is vice-prez, and AOC is appointed Special Minister of the Economy and Restorative Justice. That happens I'll cash out and head to .....to.....to......I'll tell you later.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #57 on: February 13, 2019, 10:54:36 AM »
Timing the general market isn't for me, but good luck! 

I hope this works out for the OP.

I do too, but mostly because I'd love a few years of real nice discounts.

You just had a 20% decline back in December, remember?  What more do you want?


I know, and I dumped in everything I could without going into debt or selling my organs on the black market.  I'm still accumulating and am set to save a lot more starting this year than the last few years, so a discount for a while would feel really great.

FIRE 20/20

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #58 on: February 13, 2019, 10:13:17 PM »
892.9490 shares sold at $67.59 each for a total of $60,354.42.

I don't agree with your logic, but kudos for giving us actual numbers to back up your trades.

Agreed.  I *feel* like the markets have to crash for any of a dozen different reasons, but I felt that way in 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, etc.  But I admire the guts it takes to admit it and post here. 

MaaS

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #59 on: February 14, 2019, 08:19:37 AM »
The more likely political risk is that an impeachment leads to an election landslide that puts the Democrats in control of the Senate as well as the presidency. If serious talk of rolling back the corporate tax cuts came up, the market would take a beating. The fundamentals would become a nightmare as soon as the market priced a high probability in.

Also, I'm not saying the above would be a good or bad thing for the country. But, it would almost certainly be bad for the short-term market price. With that said, I'm not selling a single share based on that.

waltworks

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #60 on: February 14, 2019, 11:28:30 AM »
VTSAX is at $68.85 right now, so now OP is:

893*($68.85-$67.59)=$1125 in the hole

Since we don't know what the tax hit was yet, if any, we'll leave that out.

In another month we'll have some dividends distributed as well, of course.

Should be fun to track!

-W

sol

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #61 on: February 14, 2019, 12:08:55 PM »
VTSAX is at $68.85 right now, so now OP is:

893*($68.85-$67.59)=$1125 in the hole

The most hilarious part about this little experiment, IMO, is that if you click on the OP's post history the last thing he posted before this thread announcing that he was going all cash was this post on October 13th, in which he is optimistic about what a good investment his VTSAX purchases were.

The kicker?  The price on October 13th was $68.83!  Yesterday's price was $68.85.  What changed, junioroldtimer?  Why were you happy about buying in at today's price back in October, but now so fearful that you're hiding in cash? 

ChpBstrd

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #62 on: February 14, 2019, 01:26:04 PM »
VTSAX is at $68.85 right now, so now OP is:

893*($68.85-$67.59)=$1125 in the hole

The most hilarious part about this little experiment, IMO, is that if you click on the OP's post history the last thing he posted before this thread announcing that he was going all cash was this post on October 13th, in which he is optimistic about what a good investment his VTSAX purchases were.

The kicker?  The price on October 13th was $68.83!  Yesterday's price was $68.85.  What changed, junioroldtimer?  Why were you happy about buying in at today's price back in October, but now so fearful that you're hiding in cash?

^ This may seem mean-spirited, O.P, but it's the sense of discipline and the little drill seargent voice in one's head that gets us all the way through the dips and to the other side. Another self-discipline tool is having a written investment plan that you have to rewrite and rejustify to yourself if you want to change investments*. So if you can convert the annoying experience of having made this post into a mental toolkit that keeps you following a plan, then this could be a six-figure experience.

*note this does not mean "stay in a 100% stock portfolio". It means setting your AA based on your risk tolerance and sticking with whatever that is.

robartsd

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #63 on: February 14, 2019, 03:38:38 PM »
Timing the general market isn't for me, but good luck! 

I hope this works out for the OP.

I do too, but mostly because I'd love a few years of real nice discounts.

You just had a 20% decline back in December, remember?  What more do you want?

Have we already forgotten what the forum was like in December?  So much doom and gloom, "the recession is here" talk and lots of people posting their six figure losses.  The top was in, right?

Oh wait, it's almost like we're all terrible at timing the market.  Because things have been great since then, instead of terrible.
Sure the decline in December gave some people a great bargains, but it didn't last very long. My purchases are early in the month (shortly after I get paid) so the late December drop wasn't very helpful to me. Compared to my September buy, I only got a 10% discount in January (7% discount in December and 6% discount in February). Pretty soon I'll be paying record prices for my shares again.

sol

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #64 on: February 14, 2019, 05:09:55 PM »
Sure the decline in December gave some people a great bargains, but it didn't last very long. My purchases are early in the month (shortly after I get paid) so the late December drop wasn't very helpful to me. Compared to my September buy, I only got a 10% discount in January (7% discount in December and 6% discount in February). Pretty soon I'll be paying record prices for my shares again.

Mustachian people problems, friend.

"The stock market didn't crash hard enough or long enough for me" is not a complaint you hear very often.

dividendman

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #65 on: February 14, 2019, 10:15:27 PM »
Well, since Top is in, I have to follow this thread to see how the OP is going to cash in on Top being in.

MrOnyx

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #66 on: February 15, 2019, 04:32:30 AM »
Wonder if Brexit will have a negative (positive for buyers!) impact on markets?? I'm sure OP is hoping so.

Interested observer.

Outside of the UK markets? Not sure. The EU market might lose a little from our exports, I suppose, short-term. Trade won't totally cease between the EU and UK, even if we crash out no-deal, but it will just be subject to the WTO tariffs IIRC. It'll just be more expensive to trade with the EU, and to get our regular imports in.

Long-term, if our government gets its act together and starts negotiating some good trade agreements with the US, Asia, Europe again, South America, etc. then perhaps those markets will improve where we replace trade that used to be done with the EU with those other markets.

Brexit has been a long time coming, and so investors and other money people have had a long time to anticipate it, and prepare plans and contingencies. Brexit won't be a mushroom cloud on the markets, I suspect, but it will probably be a bit of a pop. It could cause another recession (even if just for the UK), but I don't suspect it will be a big one. I voted remain, but I'm still optimistic enough that things won't be quite as bad as certain fear-mongers will have you believe.

talltexan

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #67 on: February 15, 2019, 08:05:41 AM »
OP, I appreciate you starting this thread and being willing to take your medicine in public.

To the rest, you guys should be gracious. Most market-timers try to use sleight-of-hand to hide their mistakes or mentally account for them as something else. OP's sell order meant someone else--maybe someone reading this thread--was able to get the shares cheaply after all.

HamsterStache

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #68 on: February 15, 2019, 08:38:00 AM »
I'm an investing newbie, but still find this quite an interesting thread - PTF

firemeup

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #69 on: February 15, 2019, 02:45:18 PM »
If Trump is truly a Russian puppet and everyone seems so sure of it, wouldn't the market go up once he is finally proved of his misdeeds?  We don't even need anything certain just something minor and Congress can move him out. Market may spike. Quick buy back!

Also with every little thing being leaked, if there was anything that would directly tie Trump to the Russians would this somehow be the one thing that isn't leaked? Sell everything hes innocent! Or buy?! No wait sell!

If Trump is some Russian puppet would Mueller really not have moved a little more hastily to produce evidence so we wouldn't have a Putin hand puppet at the head of our country for well over 2 years? Buy! There is nothing there! Or maybe there is...sell! We've been headed by Russia for 2+ years! Sell sell sell!

I for one really hope there is nothing on Trump because I root for America. I root for the economy. I would never wager my savings and potential future savings by timing the market especially when logic seems to indicate there is probably nothing there and if there is, wouldn't it be good for the market if the this man who is supposedly such a buffoon and so stupid yet concealed his affairs with Russia, was gone?

Do not make decisions based on political leanings. America always self corrects.  If we swing hard left in 2020, I will still hold because we will likely return to the middle the next election after dabbling all over the spectrum in such a short period of time.

Your 60k would be better invested, if you do wait 10% to get back in it only cost you 6 grand no biggie. But just be careful. Famed economist Paul Krugman wrote an op ed the day after Trumps election that the markets may never recover as the futures were plummeting. I think it took until about noon for them to recover.  If he has no idea what's going on, I certainly dont and most likely none of us do.

Good luck. I commend your willingness to be held accountable.  I wish all politicians would be accountable to the people as well.

Telecaster

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #70 on: February 15, 2019, 03:09:31 PM »
Sure the decline in December gave some people a great bargains, but it didn't last very long. My purchases are early in the month (shortly after I get paid) so the late December drop wasn't very helpful to me. Compared to my September buy, I only got a 10% discount in January (7% discount in December and 6% discount in February). Pretty soon I'll be paying record prices for my shares again.

Mustachian people problems, friend.

"The stock market didn't crash hard enough or long enough for me" is not a complaint you hear very often.

I'll make it!  I'm still in accumulation phase.  I was relieved when it dropped.   It is causing me stress that it has rebounded so strongly. 

sol

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #71 on: February 15, 2019, 07:41:08 PM »
junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 12 the closing price was $68.64, meaning that he had cost himself $937.60.
On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11.
On Feb 15 the closing price was $69.49, meaning that he has cost himself $1,696.60.  In the first 8 days.

Market timing is fun!  As long as you're not the one doing it.

frugledoc

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #72 on: February 15, 2019, 11:36:30 PM »
junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 12 the closing price was $68.64, meaning that he had cost himself $937.60.
On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11.
On Feb 15 the closing price was $69.49, meaning that he has cost himself $1,696.60.  In the first 8 days.

Market timing is fun!  As long as you're not the one doing it.

For me, I donít have any fear of market crashes but do have a fear of missing out on gains.

I will always be 100% equities (not including my DB pension)

COEE

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #73 on: February 16, 2019, 09:40:46 AM »
junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 12 the closing price was $68.64, meaning that he had cost himself $937.60.
On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11.
On Feb 15 the closing price was $69.49, meaning that he has cost himself $1,696.60.  In the first 8 days.

Market timing is fun!  As long as you're not the one doing it.

No need to rub salt in the wound on a daily basis.  We all know the ticker and can do math.  junioroldtimer may still win.  With only 22 posts, may also be a troll.  If not a troll, certainly has some big cojones laying it all out there for the world to know and watch.

Good luck junioroldtimer! 

bacchi

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #74 on: February 16, 2019, 10:28:55 AM »
junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 12 the closing price was $68.64, meaning that he had cost himself $937.60.
On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11.
On Feb 15 the closing price was $69.49, meaning that he has cost himself $1,696.60.  In the first 8 days.

Market timing is fun!  As long as you're not the one doing it.

No need to rub salt in the wound on a daily basis.  We all know the ticker and can do math.  junioroldtimer may still win.  With only 22 posts, may also be a troll.  If not a troll, certainly has some big cojones laying it all out there for the world to know and watch.

Good luck junioroldtimer!

Eventually, a market timer will correctly predict the decline. That thread will attract all the nascent market-timers who will use that thread as proof that it can be done.


sol

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #75 on: February 16, 2019, 10:44:19 AM »
junioroldtimer may still win.  With only 22 posts, may also be a troll. 

The reason I've been watching so closely is that I'm really hoping the market dips below his sell price, so that he can jump back in and declare himself a success.  I'm just worried he's going to hold all the way down and then all the way back up again.  If you're going to time the market, you have to be ready to pull the trigger on potential gains quickly.

brandino29

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #76 on: February 18, 2019, 01:01:04 PM »

No need to rub salt in the wound on a daily basis.  We all know the ticker and can do math.  junioroldtimer may still win.  With only 22 posts, may also be a troll.  If not a troll, certainly has some big cojones laying it all out there for the world to know and watch.

Good luck junioroldtimer!

Yeah, the least fun part about this thread has been Sol's odd obsession and kinda fanatical glee in attacking the OP.

MrThatsDifferent

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #77 on: February 18, 2019, 01:07:16 PM »

No need to rub salt in the wound on a daily basis.  We all know the ticker and can do math.  junioroldtimer may still win.  With only 22 posts, may also be a troll.  If not a troll, certainly has some big cojones laying it all out there for the world to know and watch.

Good luck junioroldtimer!

Yeah, the least fun part about this thread has been Sol's odd obsession and kinda fanatical glee in attacking the OP.

Awww, thatís actually my favorite part. Itís like the battle between the young whippersnapper who thinks he knows everything and the crusty been there done that old guy who gets off on telling everyone ďI told you soĒ.  Iím eating caramel flavored popcorn btw.

Also, to Solís persistence, my investments are doing the best now than ever so Iím really wondering how much this guy has lost with his wait for disaster gamble?

waltworks

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #78 on: February 18, 2019, 01:33:36 PM »
OP, were you reinvesting dividends? That will have some effect on how you track this going forward, starting in about a month here.

-W

theoverlook

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #79 on: February 19, 2019, 09:53:04 AM »

Yeah, the least fun part about this thread has been Sol's odd obsession and kinda fanatical glee in attacking the OP.
I don't see it as an odd obsession at all.. he's just updating what the market's done since the OP posted their move. It's interesting. I also don't see numbers as an attack. If he was berating the OP then yes but he's just saying "here's what's happened since:" and giving facts. If facts are uncomfortable or an attack to you, then I guess that's your perspective.

HBFIRE

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #80 on: February 22, 2019, 09:55:27 AM »
following, this should be fun

lowroller4111

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #81 on: February 24, 2019, 04:39:30 PM »
I think the OP made a real error by getting out of the market... the trade issues are being resolved, just today Trump announced significant progress towards a deal.  We may have an easy 10-11% upside from here.  This is a classic lesson on why timing does not work.  OP may learn a very expensive lesson on staying the course.

sol

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #82 on: February 24, 2019, 07:16:56 PM »
Another week has passed, let's review!

junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11 after one week of trying to time the market.
On Feb 22 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he has cost himself $1,866.26 after two weeks of trying to time the market.

As of today, he needs the market to drop at least 3.42% to get back to break-even on his decision.  Still very possible!  I'm keeping my fingers crossed for you, junioroldtimer.

SubL stache

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #83 on: February 24, 2019, 08:10:37 PM »
This needs to be updated weekly until OP jumps back in, whether at a loss or a gain.

Thanks for actually calling your shot OP.

ender

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #84 on: February 24, 2019, 08:43:16 PM »
I'm glad the OP actually was honest enough to admit it might be a mistake.


mies

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #85 on: February 25, 2019, 01:06:01 AM »
This needs to be updated weekly until OP jumps back in, whether at a loss or a gain.

Thanks for actually calling your shot OP.

The original poster seems to have gone radio silent. Maybe heíll do an occasional thorstach style ďI told you so!Ē post the next time there is a large drop in the markets?

Either way, I hope he doesnít miss out on too much time in the market and end up buying back in at even higher share prices.

Dicey

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #86 on: February 25, 2019, 07:18:35 AM »

No need to rub salt in the wound on a daily basis.  We all know the ticker and can do math.  junioroldtimer may still win.  With only 22 posts, may also be a troll.  If not a troll, certainly has some big cojones laying it all out there for the world to know and watch.

Good luck junioroldtimer!

Yeah, the least fun part about this thread has been Sol's odd obsession and kinda fanatical glee in attacking the OP.
Frankly, @brandino29, I find it the best part. Sol responds with logic, experience, intelligence, and reason. His is helping others understand the fallacy of market timing so that they don't make the same mistake(s). Some of us old FIRE folks hang around here specifically to help other people reach their own FIRE goals more efficiently. Criticize him all you want, within the bounds of the forum rules, of course, but ignore his teaching at your own peril.

And @COEE, what you're calling big cojones look like small potatoes to me. I actually exhaled when I saw the amount of money the OP was playing with risking gambling. People have blown more money on depreciators such as cars and other motorized toys. This will be a painful lesson, but he will hopefully make a complete recovery and this experiment will prove valuable to him, and to many, in the long run. And we're all about the long run here, aren't we?

ender

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #87 on: February 25, 2019, 07:29:35 AM »
Frankly, @brandino29, I find it the best part. Sol responds with logic, experience, intelligence, and reason. His is helping others understand the fallacy of market timing so that they don't make the same mistake(s). Some of us old FIRE folks hang around here specifically to help other people reach their own FIRE goals more efficiently. Criticize him all you want, within the bounds of the forum rules, of course, but ignore his teaching at your own peril.

And @COEE, what you're calling big cojones look like small potatoes to me. I actually exhaled when I saw the amount of money the OP was playing with risking gambling. People have blown more money on depreciators such as cars and other motorized toys. This will be a painful lesson, but he will hopefully make a complete recovery and this experiment will prove valuable to him, and to many, in the long run. And we're all about the long run here, aren't we?

It reads like mocking to me. Pretty blatantly.

Maybe that's the "best part" to you but mocking someone openly on forums isn't really something I think belongs here.

Malkynn

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #88 on: February 25, 2019, 07:44:47 AM »

No need to rub salt in the wound on a daily basis.  We all know the ticker and can do math.  junioroldtimer may still win.  With only 22 posts, may also be a troll.  If not a troll, certainly has some big cojones laying it all out there for the world to know and watch.

Good luck junioroldtimer!

Yeah, the least fun part about this thread has been Sol's odd obsession and kinda fanatical glee in attacking the OP.
Frankly, @brandino29, I find it the best part. Sol responds with logic, experience, intelligence, and reason. His is helping others understand the fallacy of market timing so that they don't make the same mistake(s). Some of us old FIRE folks hang around here specifically to help other people reach their own FIRE goals more efficiently. Criticize him all you want, within the bounds of the forum rules, of course, but ignore his teaching at your own peril.

And @COEE, what you're calling big cojones look like small potatoes to me. I actually exhaled when I saw the amount of money the OP was playing with risking gambling. People have blown more money on depreciators such as cars and other motorized toys. This will be a painful lesson, but he will hopefully make a complete recovery and this experiment will prove valuable to him, and to many, in the long run. And we're all about the long run here, aren't we?

Agreed.

What I don't really understand is the level of risk for the magnitude of potential reward.

I mean, realistically, how much is he expecting the market to actually drop? Say it drops as much as 50%, which would be astounding. The max he gains is, what??? a few tens of thousands?

And if the wheels fall off the entire economy so badly that it drops that significantly, I can imagine it would be pants-shittingly terrifying to dump back in every cent of your savings while the news screams every day of the collapse of the entire economy and constantly warns of impending violent conflict.

I'm really only slightly dramatizing, or maybe I'm not, you never know what news outlets will report. I remember in 2013 when CNN had a constant stream of warnings that a North Korean nuclear attack was practically imminent.
A massive 50% drop in the market would make news agencies apoplectic. The fear rhetoric would be overwhelming, which would make it extremely difficult to assess what the likelihood of a recovery would be.

I can see someone faltering in dumping it all back in at a time if extreme economic uncertainty when cash might be king. In that unlikely case, the real benefit of this plan is having cashed out before the crash if you end up needing to use your cash without having to sell at a loss.

The opportunity to buy back in low just doesn't produce all that much of a benefit in the grand scheme.

It's a move of taking on a very high risk of losing out on gains for the very low possibility of gaining a few tens of thousands, but only if you have an iron sphincter and an absolute and total faith in the economy recovering from an astronomical drop.

Or...it could dip 10-20% as it has in the past and the gains will be even more non-significant, so why even bother??

Regardless, there's no permutation of this plan that I can see where it would impact someone's lifetime savings by very much. By the time OP hits FI, the affects of normal market fluctuations should alter their net worth more than this move will.

If there's a "big win" scenario here, I'm just not seeing it.

radram

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #89 on: February 25, 2019, 07:49:27 AM »
Still no word from OP about when the buyback will occur, and idle for over a week.

Somthin' smells fishy.

waltworks

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #90 on: February 25, 2019, 07:54:28 AM »
This is the land of the facepunch, Ender. Or it was when Sol and I started here.

Indeed, we are basically just interested in helping people. If a memorable market timing thread prevents some people from market timing, we've done our job.

I don't think we'll see OP again regardless, though.

-W

Dabnasty

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #91 on: February 25, 2019, 09:24:39 AM »
@junioroldtimer, I don't think we ever got an answer on what kind of time frame you're looking at. You mentioned that you would buy back in when the price is significantly cheaper but no indication of how long you would give that to happen.

Are you tying your decisions to the Mueller investigation? For example, if all the evidence is laid out and still no impeachment, do you buy back in? What if Trump is impeached and the markets go up or remain flat?

Or do you have a time limit in mind? Weeks, months, years?

I'm interested in part because if you're ready to let it go 2 years before you give up, sol's weekly updates probably don't mean much to you, but if you're checking the market every few days, these little movements are more relevant.

Not saying you should stop sol, I'm just curious about what it means to OP.

sol

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #92 on: February 25, 2019, 09:39:17 AM »
you're ready to let it go 2 years before you give up, sol's weekly updates probably don't mean much to you

My impression from his last post is that he's expecting a post-Mueller market drop, and is planning to wait at least a few more weeks until after the report is public, and maybe a few more years to see what the political fallout will be.

But like so many other market timing threads we have followed over the years, correctly predicting a future 10% drop doesn't help you at all if the market climbs 15% before then.  My worry for junioroldtimer is that the market will continue to rise before it drops, and then it might not drop enough to make it worthwhile.  I think his best chance (or anyone's best chance) for market timing success is to capitalize on the quasi-random daily fluctuations in the index price, and try to catch a down day ASAP after your sell date to buy back in.  You can maybe squeeze out an extra half percent, if you get lucky enough to sell on an up day and then buy in later that same week on a down day.  Unfortunately, in this case there hasn't yet been a single moment after his sell date when it would have been profitable for him to do so, because the market is on a steady upward climb these days.

But we're only up a few percent so far.  Another 10% correction this year would not shock me, and that would be the moment to declare yourself a market timing genius and get back into the market.  It still seems to me like a lot of work and stress, for a chance to deviate from market returns by a tiny amount.

secondcor521

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #93 on: February 25, 2019, 10:17:04 AM »
I remain long-term optimistic on the US stock market but I'm short-term pessimistic. I think the sitting president is going to be impeached and there's going to be a knock-down, drag-out fight in which the markets temporarily plummet as all this Russia stuff comes to light.

I'll let you guys know how I do. I intend to sell 893 shares of VTSAX. I will buy back in when the price is significantly cheaper.

Current VSTAX price: $68.18

Cross your fingers for me or call me crazy. We'll see how this goes.

I'll take the opposite point of view for $200, Alex.

I'm long term optimistic and short-term indifferent to the market performance because I am a LTBH broad-market low-cost index fund investor.  I personally do not expect President Trump to be impeached, and even if he is impeached, I expect the market will go up after such an event.  The market went up after Clinton was impeached.

I held, hold, and will continue to hold 893 shares of VTSAX in my taxable account - more than that, actually.  I have no interest, need, or plans to sell those shares, buy more shares, buy or sell call or put options, or do much of anything other than sit here and collect dividends.  (Well actually I sell some shares every 3-6 months or so to live on; that's a written part of my FIRE plan.)

@sol, I did buy some shares of VTSAX on 12/18/18 and 12/24/18 at $63.39 and $58.19.  Be greedy when others are fearful is a phrase I like.  It was a small amount of shares and was just an opportunity to shift towards stocks and was also part of a predetermined plan based on data and a long-term outlook.

I would call you foolish.  You're making investment decisions on a short-term basis, without any real plan for what to do next, based on information everyone knows and speculations that have been out there for about two years, without any apparent consideration for economic data or stock market earnings or conditions in the world or technological advances or even historical patterns.  I think that either you will be burned so badly that you stay out of the market for years afterward, or you'll accidentally succeed on this particular trade which will unfortunately mislead you into thinking that you're smarter than the average bear and you'll fail on a bigger trade later because you mistook good luck for skill.

Good luck!

HBFIRE

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #94 on: February 25, 2019, 01:25:32 PM »
Some people need expensive lessons in life, this could be one of those.

I know I've made my share of expensive lessons throughout my life (understatement).  Someone said "Successful people have a lot of experience.  Experience comes from making a lot of bad mistakes".  Now the scary thing is I think it was a surgeon who made this comment.

harvestbook

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #95 on: February 25, 2019, 03:30:26 PM »
Whenever I think some political event is going to move markets one way or another, I recall Warren Buffett saying he bought his first stocks when the US was losing the war to Japan. That seemed to work out okay.

I'll just stick with my motto and not think.

COEE

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #96 on: February 26, 2019, 07:05:00 AM »
Frankly, @brandino29, I find it the best part. Sol responds with logic, experience, intelligence, and reason. His is helping others understand the fallacy of market timing so that they don't make the same mistake(s). Some of us old FIRE folks hang around here specifically to help other people reach their own FIRE goals more efficiently. Criticize him all you want, within the bounds of the forum rules, of course, but ignore his teaching at your own peril.

And @COEE, what you're calling big cojones look like small potatoes to me. I actually exhaled when I saw the amount of money the OP was playing with risking gambling. People have blown more money on depreciators such as cars and other motorized toys. This will be a painful lesson, but he will hopefully make a complete recovery and this experiment will prove valuable to him, and to many, in the long run. And we're all about the long run here, aren't we?

It reads like mocking to me. Pretty blatantly.

Maybe that's the "best part" to you but mocking someone openly on forums isn't really something I think belongs here.

Yep - it reads as mockery to me as well. 

If you go back and reread my statement about the big cojones you may realize that it had nothing to do with the cash value, but the public lashings they would get from the likes of some of the people on this forum.  You can educate without daily/weekly/whatever reminders of the market price and over analysis of the situation.  The OP surely has all of these factors in mind... or will eventually.

I still think OP is probably a troll.

Car Jack

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #97 on: February 26, 2019, 07:44:12 AM »
$70.07 as I write this.

Mueller report, impeachment would not tank the market.  It will cause a rally.  Why?  The market doesn't move down on bad news, it moves down on expected bad news (fed expected to raise interest rates) or on insecurity (Congress to send Trump a bill that he said he'd sign, now he won't sign it and will only sign bills that start out with the words "We pledge allegiance to Donald Trump").  If Pence takes over, he'll be seen as a rational person who will sign something he says he'll sign.

My prediction......Trump impeached......Dow goes up 2,000 points.

wenchsenior

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #98 on: February 26, 2019, 07:49:30 AM »
Trump is almost certainly not going to be impeached.  But if he is, so what? Trump's even LESS likely to be removed from office. And even on the teeny tiny infinitesimal chance that he WERE removed from office, I fail to see how that would affect the stock market for more than a blip.

HBFIRE

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #99 on: February 26, 2019, 08:17:18 AM »
The market doesn't move down on bad news, it moves down on expected bad news

Mostly true, unless the news is unexpected.  Certainly the odds of Trump getting removed from office are very low, it wouldn't be expected by the markets.  That said, the markets might actually like the news as there could be less volatility in decision making without Trump in office.  Pence would probably do nothing.  The market has been impacted by several news events (including presidential election and political news) throughout history.
« Last Edit: February 26, 2019, 08:19:02 AM by dustinst22 »