Author Topic: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market  (Read 27587 times)

PDXTabs

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #300 on: June 04, 2019, 09:01:31 AM »
So actually would been just fine sitting out for some very long periods when the market went nowhere... 1965-1983, 1999-2013

Wrong.  Times when the market when nowhere and also times when it dipped are actually the best times to invest because you're buying cheap.  Putting money in when it's going up or has already gone up is actually worse. 

When the stock market was stagnating in the early 80s my grandfather was buying 30 year treasury bonds with double digit coupon yields. But that really isn't an option today.

tyort1

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #301 on: June 04, 2019, 09:05:33 AM »
So actually would been just fine sitting out for some very long periods when the market went nowhere... 1965-1983, 1999-2013

Wrong.  Times when the market when nowhere and also times when it dipped are actually the best times to invest because you're buying cheap.  Putting money in when it's going up or has already gone up is actually worse. 

When the stock market was stagnating in the early 80s my grandfather was buying 30 year treasury bonds with double digit coupon yields. But that really isn't an option today.

Oh sure, that would have been a great investment.  And to give another example, my parents had a mortgage in the 80's with interest rates in the 16% range, and with a mortgage that high, it makes sense to pay it down.  But nowadays, interest rates are low so stocks make the most sense.

fattest_foot

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #302 on: June 04, 2019, 09:30:50 AM »
So actually would been just fine sitting out for some very long periods when the market went nowhere... 1965-1983, 1999-2013

This is the fallacy with only looking at market peaks and valleys.

Why do you completely overlook all of the time between those? If you're buying all those dips, you're making money on the way up. VERY few people lump sum invest at the top and then withdraw everything all at once.

It's why the 4% rule works. Sometimes you withdraw a little bit when the market is down, and sometimes when it's up. But because it's mostly up, you're not completely bankrupt just because of a recession.

talltexan

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #303 on: June 04, 2019, 09:43:28 AM »
I've been wondering about the markets.....the S&P has been going up for 10 years or so and apparently things never tend to go up for that long....there tends to be a depression of some sort every ten years or so....I'm in the UK and with Brexit in Oct....I'm unsure as to whether to wait to buy some investments in the next year or so, or just invest now accepting that it'll go down, but over 10 years come back up.

Hmm, tricky.....

There is a chinese proverb about the best time for investing was 20 years ago, the second best time is now.....I just think markets all might go down in next year or so.....

I have been only been casually following the brexit stuff. Am I reading this right: you are assuming markets in Britannia will tank if brexit happens? Why would this be the case? It might be bumpy, but over the long term the UK will likely benefit. Look at the U.S. When we broke away from an over-bearing, uncaring gov't our economy took off. The same could be for you. In this case it would be bloodless.

On another note, buy now!

I'm not sure that comparing the United States colonial uprising 200 plus years ago against the British to the UK leaving the EU today makes any sort of sense.  The situations are not comparable just about any way you look at them.

There's an awful lot of information saying that Brexit is a bad idea long term for the UK.  Don't take my word for it, check out the UK government's own reports (https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/the-governments-own-brexit-analysis-says-the-uk-will-be).  Or check out what economists are overwhelmingly saying (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/28/economists-reject-brexit-boost-cameron, https://piie.com/publications/working-papers/brexit-everyone-loses-britain-loses-most, etc).  The economic evidence appears to be heavily against Brexit.

Can you provide the sources you're using that say otherwise?

When the American colonies were at the brink of independence (in the 1770's), their citizens were already among the most affluent in the world.

Chuck Ditallin

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #304 on: June 04, 2019, 11:52:37 AM »
Northern Ireland certainly isn't staying in the EU. Eire is staying in the EU.

I'll also point out that economists were predicting disaster for the UK economy immediately if the referendum result was in favour of leaving the EU; they were completely wrong.

They may or may not be correct about the consequences should the UK leave the EU with no deal, but their track record on Brexit-related matters leaves much to be desired.

talltexan

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #305 on: June 04, 2019, 12:19:27 PM »
1.8% real GDP growth for UK in 2017.

Compared to US figure 0f 2.2%.

Is all of that difference attributed to Brexit? probably not.

Telecaster

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #306 on: June 04, 2019, 01:50:39 PM »
Northern Ireland certainly isn't staying in the EU. Eire is staying in the EU.

I'll also point out that economists were predicting disaster for the UK economy immediately if the referendum result was in favour of leaving the EU; they were completely wrong.

They may or may not be correct about the consequences should the UK leave the EU with no deal, but their track record on Brexit-related matters leaves much to be desired.

To me, this is one of the fascinating things about Brexit.   The Good Friday Agreement prohibits a hard border between Northern Ireland and EU member Ireland.   So how do customs work between the UK and the EU if there is no hard border?   One solution would be to leave the border open between NI and Ireland, and have the hard border around the rest of the UK.  But that makes NI more like EU member Ireland than a UK member.    The Good Friday Agreement does allow for re-unification of NI and Ireland, and there is now some popular support for just that:

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/brexit/2019/02/united-ireland-now-looks-increasing-possibility

Similarly, Scotland has a strong, but minority, independence movement, and Scotland would like to remain in the EU.   Maybe this is the issue that forces the Independence issue for Scotland as well.   

appleshampooid

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #307 on: June 05, 2019, 12:39:55 PM »
Similarly, Scotland has a strong, but minority, independence movement, and Scotland would like to remain in the EU.   Maybe this is the issue that forces the Independence issue for Scotland as well.
The last referendum was fairly close (45 vs 55 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) so I wonder if they vote again sometime soon, if the EU issue will tip the scales. 

PDXTabs

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #308 on: June 05, 2019, 12:51:17 PM »
To me, this is one of the fascinating things about Brexit.   The Good Friday Agreement prohibits a hard border between Northern Ireland and EU member Ireland.   So how do customs work between the UK and the EU if there is no hard border?   One solution would be to leave the border open between NI and Ireland, and have the hard border around the rest of the UK.  But that makes NI more like EU member Ireland than a UK member.    The Good Friday Agreement does allow for re-unification of NI and Ireland, and there is now some popular support for just that:

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/brexit/2019/02/united-ireland-now-looks-increasing-possibility

Similarly, Scotland has a strong, but minority, independence movement, and Scotland would like to remain in the EU.   Maybe this is the issue that forces the Independence issue for Scotland as well.

This is also my perspective as a UK citizen that has been abroad so long that I only half count, but I could move to Scotland long enough to vote to remain in the EU.

EDITed to add for clarity: there is a small but real chance that a hard Brexit could be the motivation for a unified Ireland and an independent Scotland.
« Last Edit: June 05, 2019, 12:54:01 PM by PDXTabs »

ChpBstrd

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #309 on: June 05, 2019, 02:28:49 PM »
The rationales for Brexit are so emotional - no more rules and bureaucracy from Brussels! (As if the rules and bureaucracy from London are a different form of rules and bureaucracy that would change everyone’s lives for the better.)

Meanwhile in the big picture the British Empire which once spanned the globe, led world culture, and made English the language of world trade is about to become a minor European country occupying only the southern portion of an island, having lost the Scots, their status as a financial center, and apparently all ambition. Perhaps by the same logic Wales will secede too. Try to imagine how many people lost their lives trying to defeat or defend this empire which in the end folded itself like a bad hand at cards.

Lest we gloat, the U.S. will be the next victim of divide-and-conquer.

How crafty of the Russians to use our own inventions against us.

talltexan

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #310 on: June 06, 2019, 07:57:08 AM »
Truthfully, UK lost its status as the leading world power in the 1960's when it became clear that Pound-sterling was not going to remain as the world's reserve currency. Brexit won't be helping.

The US could have been in a position to strike a grand trade deal with UK, but I just don't think Trump has the skills to assemble a team that could honestly accomplish this.

daverobev

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #311 on: June 06, 2019, 09:17:24 AM »

To me, this is one of the fascinating things about Brexit.   The Good Friday Agreement prohibits a hard border between Northern Ireland and EU member Ireland.

It doesn't.

dividendman

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #312 on: June 06, 2019, 07:51:57 PM »
Truthfully, UK lost its status as the leading world power in the 1960's when it became clear that Pound-sterling was not going to remain as the world's reserve currency. Brexit won't be helping.

The US could have been in a position to strike a grand trade deal with UK, but I just don't think Trump has the skills to assemble a team that could honestly accomplish this.

Wales and England could join as the 51st and 52nd state.

talltexan

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #313 on: June 11, 2019, 08:35:21 AM »
Britain is popular here, but I cannot imagine Wales being desirable when people realize that they have this whole other distinct language.

Laserjet3051

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #314 on: June 20, 2019, 12:06:02 PM »
Surely by now, junioroldtimer must be getting close to a break even point?

sol

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #315 on: June 20, 2019, 01:04:15 PM »
Surely by now, junioroldtimer must be getting close to a break even point?

Hahahah, no.

Let's update!

junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On June 19 the closing price was $72.264, meaning that he had cost himself $4,509.39 after ~4 months of trying to time the market, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid on 3/21 plus $236.36 dividends not paid on 6/17 totals $5,079.36.  He's literally farther behind today than at any point since making the decision to bail on the markets back in February.

He's had a couple of chances to get back in with less than $1000 in losses, but so far there hasn't been a single moment when he could have broken even on his attempt at market timing.  He needs about an 8% drop in the index to end up back where he started.


GuitarStv

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #316 on: June 20, 2019, 01:08:22 PM »
Are you suggesting that the top was not in?

DadJokes

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #317 on: June 20, 2019, 01:14:34 PM »
Any time I think I'm smart enough to time the market, I find the graph below very helpful.  If following my own logic/insight, I would have sold during a LOT of world events that seemed like they would tank the market, but in fact had no effect at all:



Can someone explain the SNL crisis between 1987-1991 to me? Did a popular cast member leave?

HBFIRE

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #318 on: June 20, 2019, 01:17:41 PM »

Can someone explain the SNL crisis between 1987-1991 to me? Did a popular cast member leave?

Savings & Loan crisis

DadJokes

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #319 on: June 20, 2019, 01:28:26 PM »

Can someone explain the SNL crisis between 1987-1991 to me? Did a popular cast member leave?

Savings & Loan crisis

I prefer if it were a Saturday Night Live crisis.

HBFIRE

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #320 on: June 20, 2019, 01:32:17 PM »

I prefer if it were a Saturday Night Live crisis.

Well the prime years were 1980-1985, so I guess it kind of coincides for you.

davisgang90

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #321 on: June 20, 2019, 01:34:36 PM »
So actually would been just fine sitting out for some very long periods when the market went nowhere... 1965-1983, 1999-2013

Wrong.  Times when the market when nowhere and also times when it dipped are actually the best times to invest because you're buying cheap.  Putting money in when it's going up or has already gone up is actually worse. 

When the stock market was stagnating in the early 80s my grandfather was buying 30 year treasury bonds with double digit coupon yields. But that really isn't an option today.

Oh sure, that would have been a great investment.  And to give another example, my parents had a mortgage in the 80's with interest rates in the 16% range, and with a mortgage that high, it makes sense to pay it down.  But nowadays, interest rates are low so stocks make the most sense.
My parents had a ridiculously high interest mortgage on a house they couldn't sell in the early 80's.  My super rich CEO uncle famously told my dad that we would never see mortgages below 12% again.