Author Topic: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market  (Read 21543 times)

markbike528CBX

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 992
  • Location: the Everbrown part of the Evergreen State (WA)
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #200 on: April 08, 2019, 07:43:40 PM »
@HBFIRE, Thanks for the link to the bogleheads thread.   It is even better than The TOP IS IN thread here, as in more graphs and fewer memes.   I looked up the SP500 since the beginning of the bogleheads thread (2011) to now and was amused about the doooooom and gloooom contrasted by the SP500 chart.

Radagast

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1426
  • Location: West of the Mountains, East of the Sea
  • hedonismbot
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #201 on: April 08, 2019, 08:34:00 PM »
@HBFIRE, Thanks for the link to the bogleheads thread.   It is even better than The TOP IS IN thread here, as in more graphs and fewer memes.
I only see three posts containing graphs in seven pages of posts? And way less memes = not as good. TOP IS IN is way better and has way more graphs too!

And like Sol, I'm actually hoping the OP gets a chance to buy back in at a discount.
I am hoping for that as well, but not because I am an altruistic retiree like Sol. With two 401ks and an HSA on biweekly investments, two IRAs on monthly, and taxable accounts quarterly, I want my upcoming regular purchases to be at a discount!

JAYSLOL

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1132
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #202 on: April 08, 2019, 08:44:03 PM »
@HBFIRE, Thanks for the link to the bogleheads thread.   It is even better than The TOP IS IN thread here, as in more graphs and fewer memes.
I only see three posts containing graphs in seven pages of posts? And way less memes = not as good. TOP IS IN is way better and has way more graphs too!

And like Sol, I'm actually hoping the OP gets a chance to buy back in at a discount.
I am hoping for that as well, but not because I am an altruistic retiree like Sol. With two 401ks and an HSA on biweekly investments, two IRAs on monthly, and taxable accounts quarterly, I want my upcoming regular purchases to be at a discount!

Here here!  Bring on the discounts! 

AdrianC

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 949
  • Location: Cincinnati
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #203 on: April 09, 2019, 08:43:30 AM »
Relevant piece here (by an active manager, but don't let that put you off):

https://www.oakmark.com/Commentary/Commentary-Archives/Bill-Nygren-Market-Commentary-1Q19.htm?dtr

"Our position at Oakmark, consistent with historical returns by asset class, is that stocks will produce the highest long-term returns. Therefore, the only market timing that investors can reliably benefit from is periodic rebalancing ó moving portfolios back to their target asset allocations after the market has moved them away."

tedman

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 10
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #204 on: April 10, 2019, 01:26:40 PM »
Apparently Vanguard can break down your investments on an each event basis. So in light of this thread I decided to look at our joint taxable account (my wife is sooooop conservative, like 25% of her networth in cash, but sheís a tenured professor with an insane pension so she won life at this point so I stopped trying to get that cash into a CD or the like) and we invest 2k a month into life growth aggressive (VASGX?) and the swings in 2018 were crazy. We invest on the 25th of the month, and for August and September we got destroyed, October and November were ok to made some money and the December purchase is up like 200%!?!?!?!?.

Itís amazing to me people manage to convince themselves they know anything about this stuff. I invest my Roth on my birthday every year on the closest open market day (Jan 3). So this year I look like a genius and in previous years Iíve looked beyond stupid (as if it matters).

BicycleB

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 969
  • Location: Live Music Capital of the World
  • Older than the internet, but not wiser... yet
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #205 on: April 10, 2019, 05:24:37 PM »
^200% seems a little high.

https://www.google.com/search?q=vasgx&oq=vasgx&aqs=chrome..69i57j69i60j0j69i59j0l2.2195j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

12% sounds closer. Maybe check your records?

Curiosity activated...

Regardless, congrats for having a reliable method and sticking to it. Also congrats on being a wise spouse of a prosperous wife!  :)

tedman

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 10
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #206 on: April 11, 2019, 11:01:00 AM »
19.4, I rounded to 20% and then promptly confused my personal VTSAX that I do on the 25th as well. Weíre up 12.2% on that buy, which is still insane to me given how that fund appears to work.

My point though terribly explained that Iím up ~20% on my Dec buy VTSAX and ~12% on our joint VASGX through pure happenstance. I feel as though the more I learn about finance and investing the more obvious it is you really know nothing. I just canít erap my head around someone who comes to this forum and also thinks they can time it. But maybe Iím just more of a veteran since I lost my job in 2009 and theyíve never seen that panic or felt it.

Edit: I just checked, our September Ď18 buy weíre still down and at one point we were probably down 18-20% though itís come back a lot. I havenít looked at my VTSAX, but doing this exercise has really cemented for me why most people should own Bonds or simple funds just to avoid the mental strain in the seinhgs
« Last Edit: April 11, 2019, 11:48:02 AM by tedman »

phildonnia

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 87
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #207 on: April 11, 2019, 11:25:07 AM »
A little story about market timing:

My kids (ages 10, 10, and 12) were interested in stocks, so I set up a fantasy game on MarketWatch so that we could play around with it. 

I've been shrewdly reading the news and trying to do some "value investing" by buying stuff that drops suddenly after a newsworthy event or disappointing earnings report (PG&E, National Beverage Corp, Boeing, etc.) 

My kids bought a whole bunch of stuff they recognized (Nike, Coca-Cola, McDonalds) and then got bored and stopped playing.

The kids have made a little money over the months.  Their genius dad has lost more money that all three of them combined. 

So it's a good lesson, I think: buy good companies; ignore the news; and never trust that your old man is as smart as he pretends to be.

tyort1

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2232
  • Age: 47
  • Location: Denver, Colorado
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #208 on: April 11, 2019, 11:40:38 AM »
A little story about market timing:

My kids (ages 10, 10, and 12) were interested in stocks, so I set up a fantasy game on MarketWatch so that we could play around with it. 

I've been shrewdly reading the news and trying to do some "value investing" by buying stuff that drops suddenly after a newsworthy event or disappointing earnings report (PG&E, National Beverage Corp, Boeing, etc.) 

My kids bought a whole bunch of stuff they recognized (Nike, Coca-Cola, McDonalds) and then got bored and stopped playing.

The kids have made a little money over the months.  Their genius dad has lost more money that all three of them combined. 

So it's a good lesson, I think: buy good companies; ignore the news; and never trust that your old man is as smart as he pretends to be.

That is awesome.

Full_Beard

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 56
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #209 on: April 11, 2019, 02:01:13 PM »
Yes, that is an awesome, relatable story.

I think this thread would be more apt if, rather than titled, "Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market," the title read, "Welp, I'm super nervous about market and political indicators and someone needs to talk me off the ledge. How can I diversify my 100% SP500 portfolio into something that better reflects my personal risk tolerances?"

Chuck

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 402
  • Age: 30
  • Location: Northern VA
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #210 on: April 11, 2019, 02:23:59 PM »
I remain long-term optimistic on the US stock market but I'm short-term pessimistic. I think the sitting president is going to be impeached and there's going to be a knock-down, drag-out fight in which the markets temporarily plummet as all this Russia stuff comes to light.

Absolutely none of this aged well. Especially trying to exit the market at the near-bottom.

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8372
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #211 on: April 11, 2019, 02:36:17 PM »
I remain long-term optimistic on the US stock market but I'm short-term pessimistic. I think the sitting president is going to be impeached and there's going to be a knock-down, drag-out fight in which the markets temporarily plummet as all this Russia stuff comes to light.

Absolutely none of this aged well. Especially trying to exit the market at the near-bottom.

I was nervous about the market in early 2014. The index had shot up 50% in the preceding two years, and I was sure things had to cool off at some point, to stabilize and let earnings catch up.  I took approximately fifteen thousand dollars out of my taxable brokerage account to buy solar panels for my house, thinking that their very modest financial return would at least be a positive number while I expected the stock market to stay flat or decline. 

Well the solar panels are great, don't get me wrong.  They have already paid for themselves and are now making me money.  But the stock market is up another 50% since then, and I would have made more money by leaving that $15k invested for the past 4+ years. 

My point is that even though it looked like a "top is in" moment, the most profitable thing I could have done was absolutely nothing.  None of us really have any idea what the market is doing to do next.  Whenever you try to guess, you're just guessing.

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8372
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #212 on: April 12, 2019, 06:37:27 PM »
Another week, another missed opportunity to make money by holding the index.

junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11 after one week of trying to time the market.
On Feb 22 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $1,866.26 after two weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 01 the closing price was $70.28, meaning that he had cost himself $2,402.03 after three weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 08 the closing price was $68.62, meaning that he had cost himself $919.73 after four weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 15 the closing price was $70.56, meaning that he had cost himself $2,652.05 after five weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 22 the closing price was $69.49, meaning that he had cost himself $1,696.60 after six weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,030.21.
On Mar 29 the closing price was $70.43, meaning that he had cost himself $2,535.97 after seven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,869.58.
On Apr 05 the closing price was $71.94, meaning that he had cost himself $3,884.32 after eight weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,217.94.
On Apr 12 the closing price was $72.35, meaning that he had cost himself $4,250.43 after nine weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,584.04.

Sadly, there has not yet been a single day since he announced his intention to time the market when he could have bought back in as a winner.  He's just sitting on the sidelines, watching the rest of us make more and more money, week after week.

secondcor521

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2055
  • Age: 49
  • Location: Boise, Idaho
  • Big cattle, no hat.
    • Age of Eon - Overwatch player videos
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #213 on: April 12, 2019, 10:22:23 PM »
He's just sitting on the sidelines, watching the rest of us make more and more money, week after week.

Not to mention that we don't have as much angst about when to get out and when to get in.

Not to mention that we probably have less tax consequences than he does.

Not to mention that we did less.  (I've been watching Survivor.)

ender

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4606
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #214 on: April 13, 2019, 11:07:47 AM »
The bright side is the first digit of our net worth went up again.

Glad I'm not in cash ;-)

MrOnyx

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 553
  • Location: East Anglia, UK
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #215 on: April 13, 2019, 11:42:58 AM »
Again, a reminder to any newcomers: the objective here is not to attack or humiliate OP. If anything, we're looking to make an example out of him to any future would-be market timers. Sure, the game isn't over yet, but as things stand, this serves as a cautionary tale.

ender

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4606
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #216 on: April 13, 2019, 11:43:40 AM »
Again, a reminder to any newcomers: the objective here is not to attack or humiliate OP. If anything, we're looking to make an example out of him to any future would-be market timers. Sure, the game isn't over yet, but as things stand, this serves as a cautionary tale.

It's worth pointing out the number of times in the past 50 years that people have said similar things to the OP and the relatively few times they were right.

Mighty-Dollar

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 377
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #217 on: April 13, 2019, 08:22:40 PM »
I think the sitting president is going to be impeached and there's going to be a knock-down, drag-out fight in which the markets temporarily plummet as all this Russia stuff comes to light.
How's that Trump / Russia collusion hoax working out for you? I would advise not getting your news from sources like MSNBC, CNN, the NY Times, the Washington Compost, etc. These are fake news outlets. Once upon a time CNN broadcast real news and InfoWars was fake conspiracy theory news. Now it has been reversed. Everything InfoWars said about Trump has turned out to be true and everything CNN said for 2 years was completely wrong and based on no evidence.

theolympians

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 124
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #218 on: April 14, 2019, 01:09:11 AM »
I think the sitting president is going to be impeached and there's going to be a knock-down, drag-out fight in which the markets temporarily plummet as all this Russia stuff comes to light.
How's that Trump / Russia collusion hoax working out for you? I would advise not getting your news from sources like MSNBC, CNN, the NY Times, the Washington Compost, etc. These are fake news outlets. Once upon a time CNN broadcast real news and InfoWars was fake conspiracy theory news. Now it has been reversed. Everything InfoWars said about Trump has turned out to be true and everything CNN said for 2 years was completely wrong and based on no evidence.

+1

davisgang90

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1223
  • Location: Roanoke, VA
    • Photography by Rich Davis
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #219 on: April 14, 2019, 05:20:12 AM »
I continue to follow this thread much more closely than my investments.

waltworks

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3174
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #220 on: April 14, 2019, 10:39:43 AM »
No news source is going to put you in position to time the market, regardless of political leanings.

Lots of people thought Obama would crash the economy too, because they spent too much time reading right wing news.

-W

JAYSLOL

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1132
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #221 on: April 14, 2019, 10:53:40 AM »
No news source is going to put you in position to time the market, regardless of political leanings.

Lots of people thought Obama would crash the economy too, because they spent too much time reading right wing news.

-W

+1

AdrianC

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 949
  • Location: Cincinnati
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #222 on: April 14, 2019, 01:52:11 PM »
The bright side is the first digit of our net worth went up again.

Glad I'm not in cash ;-)

Heh. Me too.

Full_Beard

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 56
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #223 on: April 16, 2019, 06:02:39 PM »
I think the sitting president is going to be impeached and there's going to be a knock-down, drag-out fight in which the markets temporarily plummet as all this Russia stuff comes to light.
How's that Trump / Russia collusion hoax working out for you? I would advise not getting your news from sources like MSNBC, CNN, the NY Times, the Washington Compost, etc. These are fake news outlets. Once upon a time CNN broadcast real news and InfoWars was fake conspiracy theory news. Now it has been reversed. Everything InfoWars said about Trump has turned out to be true and everything CNN said for 2 years was completely wrong and based on no evidence.
Wow, this went very political - the fake news meme. How about we agree to stick to investment chatter, market timing, and whether one thinks indicators (economic and/or political (regardless of whether you agree/support them)) should factor into your personal balancing of risk/tolerance with diversification?

I can see both sides of the argument, but at the end of the day, I think it's all about one's willingness to take risk and tolerance for when the market is spiraling downward.

That Boglehead post that was linked was very illustrative of the impossibility of knowing with a high degree (perhaps any degree) of certainty where we currently are plotted on the graph that represents the next decade from this point in time.

Mr. Boh

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 115
  • Location: The Land of Pleasant Living
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #224 on: April 22, 2019, 10:40:23 AM »
I think the sitting president is going to be impeached and there's going to be a knock-down, drag-out fight in which the markets temporarily plummet as all this Russia stuff comes to light.
How's that Trump / Russia collusion hoax working out for you? I would advise not getting your news from sources like MSNBC, CNN, the NY Times, the Washington Compost, etc. These are fake news outlets. Once upon a time CNN broadcast real news and InfoWars was fake conspiracy theory news. Now it has been reversed. Everything InfoWars said about Trump has turned out to be true and everything CNN said for 2 years was completely wrong and based on no evidence.

Mighty-Dollar you clearly have not read the Mueller report. I suspect that you haven't read much about Alex Jones either.

lowroller4111

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 25
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #225 on: April 22, 2019, 11:17:54 AM »
Well the solar panels are great, don't get me wrong.  They have already paid for themselves and are now making me money.  But the stock market is up another 50% since then, and I would have made more money by leaving that $15k invested for the past 4+ years. 

Yeah, these types of things happen, i've lost way more than that.  I had around $200,000 on the sidelines from 2010-2017 (cumulative across the years not a lumpsum at the start).  This was earmarked for a home purchase which I never really bought due to a multitude of changes in my personal life as well as rapidly escalating prices post 2012.  So in the end, no house and a total waste of capital which I could've deployed.  Oh well, I still have a very nice sized portfolio and i'm fully invested now, thankfully i'm only in my mid 40s so I have loads of time to make up for any prior errors.

Still irks me that I lost out on potentially $200k of market gains...

talltexan

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2326
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #226 on: April 22, 2019, 12:45:08 PM »
I think the same thing about my opulent wedding in 2008 and my opulent car purchase and travel during the year that included it (and, yes, in 2009).

powskier

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 341
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #227 on: April 23, 2019, 10:01:55 AM »
The hardest part of market timing is deciding when to get back in. It is always the part most market timers are quiet about, usually because the fear/emotions that motivate the sell are immediate and concrete but the mythical future time when they "know" when to buy back is predicated on future emotions that do not exist.
Some traders may use specifics such as "I'll buy back in at launch of product X" or" before/after quarterly earnings" but it's going to be tough for OP.
Many of those that thought the market would tank if Trump was elected  lost out when market went up after election. The good thing about staying the course is none of us have to worry if market goes up or down if Trump does/does not go to jail.

J Boogie

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 906
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #228 on: April 23, 2019, 10:21:48 AM »
Well the solar panels are great, don't get me wrong.  They have already paid for themselves and are now making me money.  But the stock market is up another 50% since then, and I would have made more money by leaving that $15k invested for the past 4+ years. 

Yeah, these types of things happen, i've lost way more than that.  I had around $200,000 on the sidelines from 2010-2017 (cumulative across the years not a lumpsum at the start).  This was earmarked for a home purchase which I never really bought due to a multitude of changes in my personal life as well as rapidly escalating prices post 2012.  So in the end, no house and a total waste of capital which I could've deployed.  Oh well, I still have a very nice sized portfolio and i'm fully invested now, thankfully i'm only in my mid 40s so I have loads of time to make up for any prior errors.

Still irks me that I lost out on potentially $200k of market gains...

I still like the solar decision though. That's a sure thing, no speculation, pure value to yourself and the planet.

After all, bitcoin would have been a better investment too. Whenever you can get pure productivity uncoupled from speculation I say go for it, but especially if the markets are at or near historic shiller PE ratio highs.

Pennycounter

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 214
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #229 on: April 24, 2019, 08:55:09 AM »
While my reasons are different than OP, I just exchanged some equities for bond funds. I need some of my post tax in the coming year and was heavily weighted in stocks.  I love the look of the steady upward climb but knew if there was a tumble a la Q4 2018, that it could have short term impacts to us. 

So I wasn't trying to strictly time the market but did get uncomfortable since we are trying to deploy some cash for other investments and everything is just so high.  But I also understand that its the cost of doing business that we may miss some gains.  It also underscores what everyone is saying about an investment plan. I feel like remedial student who hasn't done her homework but I see the value now that I've been doing this for a while.

SubL stache

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 59
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #230 on: April 24, 2019, 10:37:21 AM »
Where is jr old timer?  I wish he would give us a look into what he is thinking right now, hold a little longer for a correction?  Jump in now and chalk up the ~8% wiff to learning?

It seems the psychological problem with market timing is that once you do it you are committed to the strategy.  We all understand that sometimes you win and sometimes you lose, but they are betting on winning more and if you accept this premise then you have to keep playing the game...especially if you start out losing...you can never rest, you must always ring your hands and worry about the ups and downs...

ChpBstrd

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1314
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #231 on: April 24, 2019, 10:51:35 AM »
I think I could time the market if someone could create an index of doom posts on the MMM forum. Just have a flag denoting that the OP expressed worry about stocks and graph these by date posted. When the MMM Top is In Index is high, itís a bullish signal. When low, time to enter stop loss orders.

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8372
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #232 on: April 24, 2019, 11:23:49 AM »
Where is jr old timer?  I wish he would give us a look into what he is thinking right now, hold a little longer for a correction?  Jump in now and chalk up the ~8% wiff to learning?

He's around.  He was last active on the forum four days ago, but has not posted in any other threads since this one.  So presumably he's reading along with the rest of us, and having a good laugh at the whims of the market.

Or maybe he's biding his time, smirking in a dark corner somewhere just waiting for the horrible crash he still thinks is coming, just waiting for his chance to jump back into this thread with a giant GOTCHA!

ChpBstrd

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1314
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #233 on: April 24, 2019, 01:08:33 PM »
Where is jr old timer?  I wish he would give us a look into what he is thinking right now, hold a little longer for a correction?  Jump in now and chalk up the ~8% wiff to learning?

He's around.  He was last active on the forum four days ago, but has not posted in any other threads since this one.  So presumably he's reading along with the rest of us, and having a good laugh at the whims of the market.

Or maybe he's biding his time, smirking in a dark corner somewhere just waiting for the horrible crash he still thinks is coming, just waiting for his chance to jump back into this thread with a giant GOTCHA!

With zerohedge on one screen and MMM forums on the other, one could play this in a way that guaranteed a gotcha.

GuitarStv

  • Senior Mustachian
  • ********
  • Posts: 13116
  • Age: 37
  • Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #234 on: April 24, 2019, 01:37:35 PM »
These threads are fun!

solon

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1497
  • Age: 1818
  • Location: CO
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #235 on: April 24, 2019, 02:40:22 PM »
I think I could time the market if someone could create an index of doom posts on the MMM forum. Just have a flag denoting that the OP expressed worry about stocks and graph these by date posted. When the MMM Top is In Index is high, itís a bullish signal. When low, time to enter stop loss orders.

Genius! Someone needs to do this.

sideHustler

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 17
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #236 on: April 24, 2019, 02:44:16 PM »
Timing the market is tough. The only thing I've done to even attempt it is to buy up stock in strong companies going through some sort of scare or scandal. The price dip is a nice discount that almost always rebounds.

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8372
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #237 on: April 24, 2019, 02:55:27 PM »
I think I could time the market if someone could create an index of doom posts on the MMM forum. Just have a flag denoting that the OP expressed worry about stocks and graph these by date posted. When the MMM Top is In Index is high, itís a bullish signal. When low, time to enter stop loss orders.

Genius! Someone needs to do this.

Ahhh, but this is just more recency bias.  Your priors are bad. 

It only looks like a great idea because for the entire lifetime of this forum, the market has soared while forum members predicted doom.  I don't see any predictive power in that history, because I'm not a market timer and I don't believe in chartist bullshit.  Just because you've data mined a convincing signal from the historical record doesn't mean that your signal actually works.  Could just be coincidence, out of the millions of different ways to plot correlations, that you've hit upon one that looks decent.

Unhumorously, that's just as true for the MMM satire index as it is for anything by Gary Antonacci.

talltexan

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2326
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #238 on: April 26, 2019, 07:29:10 AM »
Timing the market is tough. The only thing I've done to even attempt it is to buy up stock in strong companies going through some sort of scare or scandal. The price dip is a nice discount that almost always rebounds.

I'd be curious to know some of your recent moves here. GE has certainly been a dog lately. Boeing was a popular choice around the office. Ford also.

Blueberries

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 186
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #239 on: April 26, 2019, 08:46:22 AM »
Timing the market is tough. The only thing I've done to even attempt it is to buy up stock in strong companies going through some sort of scare or scandal. The price dip is a nice discount that almost always rebounds.

Timing the market and timing individual stocks are two completely different animals.

You will find many people that successfully time stocks (this isn't to say they don't have losses), but it is very difficult, even for professionals, to time the market.  Most don't try.

lowroller4111

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 25
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #240 on: April 26, 2019, 01:09:52 PM »
Keep sharing this great link whenever I can from legendary investor Burton Malkiel (who wrote the bestseller "A random walk down Wall St.")

https://youtu.be/NqKXv5Dkbw4



Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk


Maenad

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 448
  • Location: Minneapolis 'burbs
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #241 on: April 26, 2019, 04:01:00 PM »
The hardest part of market timing is deciding when to get back in. It is always the part most market timers are quiet about, usually because the fear/emotions that motivate the sell are immediate and concrete but the mythical future time when they "know" when to buy back is predicated on future emotions that do not exist.

Yeah, it's a lot easier to be fearful when others are greedy than greedy when they're fearful. There's a lot of perma-bears out there that sound very convincing, and if you combine that with the pessimistic bias that news sources have (bad news gets clicks!), and experiences where something was too good to be true and burned you, you get a reasonable human response that something bad is about to happen and you should cash out while you still can.

It's one of the downsides of our ability to see patterns and predict things - we're so often wrong when it's big complex stuff that has more inputs than we can account for in our little monkey brains.

I'm mentally falling prey to this myself right now. As of market close today, I'm 96.5% FI. I'm literally something like 3 months away, and a year from ER. A recession right now or a crash that doesn't recover quickly would pull this away right as I'm about to reach it, and I'm fighting fear and anger almost constantly, trying to focus on the big picture, and the reality that I'm only in my 40s, and a couple more years of working is far from catastrophic.

I'm almost ashamed of having such a privileged "problem", but there you go.

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8372
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #242 on: April 26, 2019, 06:47:55 PM »
Markets were closed last Friday, but using last Thursday's prices and then today's prices I've been able to update the tracking list.

junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11 after one week of trying to time the market.
On Feb 22 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $1,866.26 after two weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 01 the closing price was $70.28, meaning that he had cost himself $2,402.03 after three weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 08 the closing price was $68.62, meaning that he had cost himself $919.73 after four weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 15 the closing price was $70.56, meaning that he had cost himself $2,652.05 after five weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 22 the closing price was $69.49, meaning that he had cost himself $1,696.60 after six weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,030.21.
On Mar 29 the closing price was $70.43, meaning that he had cost himself $2,535.97 after seven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,869.58.
On Apr 05 the closing price was $71.94, meaning that he had cost himself $3,884.32 after eight weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,217.94.
On Apr 12 the closing price was $72.35, meaning that he had cost himself $4,250.43 after nine weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,584.04.
On Apr 19 the closing price was $72.16, meaning that he had cost himself $4,080.77 after ten weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4412.38.
On Apr 26 the closing price was $73.09, meaning that he had cost himself $4,911.21 after eleven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $5,244.82.

The market would need to drop 8.7% from here for junioroldtimer to have the chance to make money off of his decision to go all cash back on page one of this thread.

Friends don't let friends time the market.

solon

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1497
  • Age: 1818
  • Location: CO
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #243 on: April 26, 2019, 09:30:13 PM »
Keep sharing this great link whenever I can from legendary investor Burton Malkiel (who wrote the bestseller "A random walk down Wall St.")

https://youtu.be/NqKXv5Dkbw4

I feel like this should be underscored. For those of you who haven't watched this yet, this is Burton Malkiel explaining what he thinks of timing the market. Very strong, very emphatic, very good to watch over and over.

markbike528CBX

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 992
  • Location: the Everbrown part of the Evergreen State (WA)
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #244 on: April 26, 2019, 10:06:04 PM »
Keep sharing this great link whenever I can from legendary investor Burton Malkiel (who wrote the bestseller "A random walk down Wall St.")

https://youtu.be/NqKXv5Dkbw4

I feel like this should be underscored. For those of you who haven't watched this yet, this is Burton Malkiel explaining what he thinks of timing the market. Very strong, very emphatic, very good to watch over and over.

But But..via random Youtube playlist...  Alessio  Rastani  says other wise in 2015 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GBGeeKVcE1Y
All you have to do is h ave a 21 monthly average and interest rate trend and some "flexibility"  and you can " How to time the market"
and  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MX0IV1qNt4w  "Your Savings are about to Evaporate"  - 2012? -15.....
/snark

cl_noll

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 70
  • Age: 35
  • Location: Madtown, WI
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #245 on: May 13, 2019, 07:50:22 PM »
Markets were closed last Friday, but using last Thursday's prices and then today's prices I've been able to update the tracking list.

junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11 after one week of trying to time the market.
On Feb 22 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $1,866.26 after two weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 01 the closing price was $70.28, meaning that he had cost himself $2,402.03 after three weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 08 the closing price was $68.62, meaning that he had cost himself $919.73 after four weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 15 the closing price was $70.56, meaning that he had cost himself $2,652.05 after five weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 22 the closing price was $69.49, meaning that he had cost himself $1,696.60 after six weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,030.21.
On Mar 29 the closing price was $70.43, meaning that he had cost himself $2,535.97 after seven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,869.58.
On Apr 05 the closing price was $71.94, meaning that he had cost himself $3,884.32 after eight weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,217.94.
On Apr 12 the closing price was $72.35, meaning that he had cost himself $4,250.43 after nine weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4,584.04.
On Apr 19 the closing price was $72.16, meaning that he had cost himself $4,080.77 after ten weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $4412.38.
On Apr 26 the closing price was $73.09, meaning that he had cost himself $4,911.21 after eleven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $5,244.82.

The market would need to drop 8.7% from here for junioroldtimer to have the chance to make money off of his decision to go all cash back on page one of this thread.

Friends don't let friends time the market.

It's getting closer to the break even point for Junior Old Timer! Not to steal Sol's thunder but...

On May 13 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $2,134.14 after eleven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,467.65

The market would need to drop 3.5% from here for junioroldtimer to have the chance to make money off of his decision to go all cash back on page one of this thread.

HBFIRE

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 790
  • Age: 40
  • Location: Huntington Beach, CA
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #246 on: May 13, 2019, 08:49:17 PM »

It's getting closer to the break even point for Junior Old Timer! Not to steal Sol's thunder but...

On May 13 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $2,134.14 after eleven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,467.65

The market would need to drop 3.5% from here for junioroldtimer to have the chance to make money off of his decision to go all cash back on page one of this thread.

IF he were a real pro he would have sold a week ago.

PDXTabs

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 932
  • Age: 36
  • Location: Vancouver, WA, USA
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #247 on: May 13, 2019, 09:14:34 PM »
plus $333.61 in dividends not paid

What makes you think that his money is currently earning 0.00%? I think you should ignore the dividends because he almost certainly isn't getting 0.00% on his cash. VMFXX is yielding ~2.4% right now.

sol

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8372
  • Age: 42
  • Location: Pacific Northwest
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #248 on: May 13, 2019, 10:05:37 PM »
What makes you think that

"What makes me think that" is his post in this thread in which he said he was converting it to cash.

You can argue with him, if you like, but I took him at his word.

PDXTabs

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 932
  • Age: 36
  • Location: Vancouver, WA, USA
Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #249 on: May 13, 2019, 11:06:12 PM »
"What makes me think that" is his post in this thread in which he said he was converting it to cash.

He never said that he pulled his money out and put it under his mattress. FDIC Ally savings accounts are yielding 2.2% right now. I'm pretty sure that in the vernacular of the peasantry that is still "cash."