Author Topic: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market  (Read 21541 times)

Dicey

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #100 on: February 26, 2019, 08:41:34 AM »
Frankly, @brandino29, I find it the best part. Sol responds with logic, experience, intelligence, and reason. His is helping others understand the fallacy of market timing so that they don't make the same mistake(s). Some of us old FIRE folks hang around here specifically to help other people reach their own FIRE goals more efficiently. Criticize him all you want, within the bounds of the forum rules, of course, but ignore his teaching at your own peril.

And @COEE, what you're calling big cojones look like small potatoes to me. I actually exhaled when I saw the amount of money the OP was playing with risking gambling. People have blown more money on depreciators such as cars and other motorized toys. This will be a painful lesson, but he will hopefully make a complete recovery and this experiment will prove valuable to him, and to many, in the long run. And we're all about the long run here, aren't we?

It reads like mocking to me. Pretty blatantly.

Maybe that's the "best part" to you but mocking someone openly on forums isn't really something I think belongs here.

Yep - it reads as mockery to me as well. 

If you go back and reread my statement about the big cojones you may realize that it had nothing to do with the cash value, but the public lashings they would get from the likes of some of the people on this forum.  You can educate without daily/weekly/whatever reminders of the market price and over analysis of the situation.  The OP surely has all of these factors in mind... or will eventually.

I still think OP is probably a troll.
This is the MMM Forum, a subset of the MMM Blog, where face punches and mockery strut with confidence in the face of silliness such as market timing. MMM's blunt ways and direct approach are much of what makes his voice stand out from the crowd. Sol's been around longer than I have, but we're both pretty cognizant of forum history and rules.

Anyone who hangs around here long enough realizes that many people do NOT (or cannot, which is even scarier) do the math, and there are new members joining our ranks every day. (Welcome!) To ignore someone who is extolling their adventures in market timing is a disservice to all, even if said person resembles a troll. Not everybody realizes that, and they could be left with the impression that market timing isn't such a bad thing. In this place, market timers deserve to be mocked. What you (and others) may perceive as sarcasm might just be a couple of salty old-timers, hanging around on the porch, mostly obeying the Forum Rules, and helping others reach their goal of FIRE.

And I did re-re-re-read your statement, COEE. "It" may not read the way you intended. I respectfully stand by my interpretation.

Eric

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #101 on: February 26, 2019, 12:12:13 PM »
I'm sure the OP was prepared for at least the possibility of some public mockery, otherwise he wouldn't have started this thread, he would've just made terrible investment decisions in silence.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #102 on: February 26, 2019, 03:02:51 PM »
I suspect OP has made this mistake a few times before, hates themselves for making the same mistake over and over again, and has vowed to let a mob of internet people give them the beatdown of a lifetime in the hopes of finally breaking the cycle. Self-punishment and self-shaming are sometimes attempts to train oneself to stop doing a thing.

In my younger, dumber days, I used to make trades in response to news-provoked anxieties even as I was reading elsewhere about what a bad move that was. I watched the losses pile up and read more about market timing. I set up play portfolios and destroyed them. Still l remained convinced that the next event I was reading about in the financial "news" would probably tank stocks this time, and I would feel so smart for avoiding years of losses. I reached a point where I knew I would probably lose at market timing AND STILL COULDN'T STOP. My fear was overriding both my own experience and the objective data that others were presenting me.

O.P. may have positioned themselves to fear this facepunchfest as a counterbalance to their fear of losing money in the stock market. Probably all they got was a cash portfolio being left in the dust and facepunches on top of that. There's a whole line of "talk me out of..." posts on this forum. Hopefully this is just another one, and OP didn't actually sell out in the middle of an epic rally.

bisimpson

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #103 on: February 26, 2019, 05:22:05 PM »
This has been an interesting thread. I don't have any plans on timing the marketóreading posts and replies like these cure any idea that I think I can make a better return jumping in and out of the market. But here's an innocent question though:

If you wanted to jump in and out of the market wouldn't there be a better tool than VTI or VTSAX? I think if I were an active investor (read 'actively buying and selling'), I would be looking for individual companies that might fare better or worse in a given political climate, not the broad American economy, which VTSAX seems to represent.

secondcor521

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #104 on: February 26, 2019, 06:36:23 PM »
I suspect OP has made this mistake a few times before, hates themselves for making the same mistake over and over again, and has vowed to let a mob of internet people give them the beatdown of a lifetime in the hopes of finally breaking the cycle. Self-punishment and self-shaming are sometimes attempts to train oneself to stop doing a thing.

In my younger, dumber days, I used to make trades in response to news-provoked anxieties even as I was reading elsewhere about what a bad move that was. I watched the losses pile up and read more about market timing. I set up play portfolios and destroyed them. Still l remained convinced that the next event I was reading about in the financial "news" would probably tank stocks this time, and I would feel so smart for avoiding years of losses. I reached a point where I knew I would probably lose at market timing AND STILL COULDN'T STOP. My fear was overriding both my own experience and the objective data that others were presenting me.

O.P. may have positioned themselves to fear this facepunchfest as a counterbalance to their fear of losing money in the stock market. Probably all they got was a cash portfolio being left in the dust and facepunches on top of that. There's a whole line of "talk me out of..." posts on this forum. Hopefully this is just another one, and OP didn't actually sell out in the middle of an epic rally.

Seems like quite a bit of projecting there.

OP did state that they put in the transaction about the same time they made the post, and then followed up that the transaction had actually gone through.  I don't think they were expecting to be talked out of it.  Which is another point for foolishness - deciding to do something first and then maybe asking for guidance and feedback second, rather than the other way around.

radram

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #105 on: February 27, 2019, 07:41:14 AM »
This has been an interesting thread. I don't have any plans on timing the marketóreading posts and replies like these cure any idea that I think I can make a better return jumping in and out of the market. But here's an innocent question though:

If you wanted to jump in and out of the market wouldn't there be a better tool than VTI or VTSAX? I think if I were an active investor (read 'actively buying and selling'), I would be looking for individual companies that might fare better or worse in a given political climate, not the broad American economy, which VTSAX seems to represent.

That's a really interesting point.  Is it easier to gauge the short-term movement of an individual company, or the movement of the market as a whole.  I think I agree with you. I'd rather bet on an individual company than the market as a whole.


Now that I think about it, I do not know if that research has been done. When looking at market timers,which should under-perform the market as a whole, do individual stock timers outperform their index timer counterparts?

My guess would be no. This would be interesting reporting.

bisimpson

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #106 on: February 27, 2019, 08:45:57 AM »
This has been an interesting thread. I don't have any plans on timing the marketóreading posts and replies like these cure any idea that I think I can make a better return jumping in and out of the market. But here's an innocent question though:

If you wanted to jump in and out of the market wouldn't there be a better tool than VTI or VTSAX? I think if I were an active investor (read 'actively buying and selling'), I would be looking for individual companies that might fare better or worse in a given political climate, not the broad American economy, which VTSAX seems to represent.

That's a really interesting point.  Is it easier to gauge the short-term movement of an individual company, or the movement of the market as a whole.  I think I agree with you. I'd rather bet on an individual company than the market as a whole.

Now that I think about it, I do not know if that research has been done. When looking at market timers,which should under-perform the market as a whole, do individual stock timers outperform their index timer counterparts?

My guess would be no. This would be interesting reporting.

Sounds like too much work for this know-nothing investor.

I think if I were to bet on government outcomes, it wouldnít be an impeachment. I think I would be more interested in the outcome of the trade war with China, or the southern wall.

solon

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #107 on: February 27, 2019, 09:08:40 AM »
Welp, I love the title of this thread. I haven't heard 'welp' since growing up in Minnestota. OP may be right or wrong about the stock market, but I'm inclined to like him as a person.

talltexan

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #108 on: February 28, 2019, 01:55:14 PM »
I cannot help but notice that the market has barely budged over the last several days. Doesn't that kind of stability portend a sell-off?

Eric

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #109 on: February 28, 2019, 02:40:05 PM »
I cannot help but notice that the market has barely budged over the last several days. Doesn't that kind of stability portend a sell-off?

Let me ask my Magic 8 ball.  It says: "Concentrate and ask again"

Even the 8 ball doesn't know!!

solon

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #110 on: February 28, 2019, 02:41:54 PM »
I cannot help but notice that the market has barely budged over the last several days. Doesn't that kind of stability portend a sell-off?

Let me ask my Magic 8 ball.  It says: "Concentrate and ask again"

Even the 8 ball doesn't know!!

I got, "Very doubtful"!

ChpBstrd

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #111 on: February 28, 2019, 02:48:54 PM »
I cannot help but notice that the market has barely budged over the last several days. Doesn't that kind of stability portend a sell-off?

Let me ask my Magic 8 ball.  It says: "Concentrate and ask again"

Even the 8 ball doesn't know!!

I got, "Very doubtful"!

I got "IT'S THE FUCKING TRIPLE MEGA DEATH CROSS ON THE HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERN. SELL EVERYTHING AND BUY PUTS ON THE S&P500 At 2680 THAT WILL YIELD A 350% RETURN AT 2600!!!!"

I think it's the first time that one has ever come up.

waltworks

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #112 on: February 28, 2019, 02:55:35 PM »
Mine says "it's Thursday so put some more money in if you have it".

-W

ILikeDividends

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #113 on: February 28, 2019, 06:45:13 PM »
Mine says "it's Thursday so put some more money in if you have it".

-W
Mine said, "Reboot is required to install the latest updates."

So I drop-kicked it, and smashed it against the wall.

Now it alternates between just two results no matter what my question is: "Top is in" and "Your battery has experienced a permanent failure and needs to be replaced."
« Last Edit: February 28, 2019, 08:45:15 PM by ILikeDividends »

talltexan

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #114 on: March 01, 2019, 07:50:05 AM »
Now you guys are starting to sound like "top is in" people...yeesh

sol

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #115 on: March 02, 2019, 04:50:46 PM »
Another week has passed, let's review!

junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11 after one week of trying to time the market.
On Feb 22 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $1,866.26 after two weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 01 the closing price was $70.28, meaning that he has cost himself $2,402.03 after three weeks of trying to time the market.  Bummer.

As of today, he needs the market to drop at least 3.83% to get back to break-even on his decision.  Still very possible!  I'm keeping my fingers crossed for you, junioroldtimer.

Dicey

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #116 on: March 03, 2019, 11:51:25 PM »
♡♡Thanks for the update, @sol!♡♡

robartsd

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #117 on: March 04, 2019, 09:26:44 AM »
Another week has passed, let's review!

junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11 after one week of trying to time the market.
On Feb 22 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $1,866.26 after two weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 01 the closing price was $70.28, meaning that he has cost himself $2,402.03 after three weeks of trying to time the market.  Bummer.

As of today, he needs the market to drop at least 3.83% to get back to break-even on his decision.  Still very possible!  I'm keeping my fingers crossed for you, junioroldtimer.
Hopefully the drop will coincide with my buy order this week!

lowroller4111

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #118 on: March 08, 2019, 05:00:50 PM »
I just bought $4k worth of VTSAX today... yeah it may go down next week, it may even crash 10% this month I have no idea but that isn't the point.  I do not know what is going to happen and I do not care as this is money for when I turn 70 or so, I MAY withdraw it then.  I am currently 44 LOL!

So, OP just get back in and this time don't jump ship.

MrThatsDifferent

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #119 on: March 08, 2019, 05:51:00 PM »
♡♡Thanks for the update, @sol!♡♡

I have a legitimate man crush on sol.

waltworks

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #120 on: March 08, 2019, 07:51:32 PM »
♡♡Thanks for the update, @sol!♡♡

I have a legitimate man crush on sol.

Get in line.

-W

sol

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #121 on: March 08, 2019, 10:17:50 PM »
♡♡Thanks for the update, @sol!♡♡

I have a legitimate man crush on sol.

Get in line.

Boys, boys, reign it in already!  There's more than enough of me to go around.  I can go aaaaaall night.


Also, another week has passed, so let's review!

junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11 after one week of trying to time the market.
On Feb 22 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $1,866.26 after two weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 01 the closing price was $70.28, meaning that he had cost himself $2,402.03 after three weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 08 the closing price was $68.62, meaning that he has cost himself $919.73 after four weeks of trying to time the market.

It was a bad week in the market (down ~2.4%), so he recovered some of his paper losses.  Is the bottom in?  Is today the right day to get back into vtsax at the smallest possible loss, or is this just the start of the big correction OP was hoping to see when he went all cash a month ago?

Stay tuned next week for the next exciting installment of "can junioroldtimer time the market?"

MrOnyx

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #122 on: March 09, 2019, 02:41:31 AM »
I'm on the edge of my seat. This is the big plot reveal, and I've been in anticipation since halfway through the last season.

v8rx7guy

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #123 on: March 13, 2019, 03:53:25 PM »
Can we get an update @sol ?

waltworks

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #124 on: March 13, 2019, 04:07:55 PM »
Can we get an update @sol ?

Updates on Fridays, it hasn't been a full week yet.

What are we going to do when dividends get paid out in another week? OP didn't say if they were reinvesting or not.

-W

v8rx7guy

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #125 on: March 13, 2019, 04:28:01 PM »
Can we get an update @sol ?

Updates on Fridays, it hasn't been a full week yet.

What are we going to do when dividends get paid out in another week? OP didn't say if they were reinvesting or not.

-W

Oops... I thought it would be an appropriate update day due to being a high for 2019.

sol

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #126 on: March 15, 2019, 09:38:43 PM »
Can we get an update @sol ?

Yes.  Yes we can.

Remember last week when I said "Is the bottom in?  Is today the right day to get back into vtsax at the smallest possible loss?"  The answer to that question appears to be yes, the bottom was in, and that was the correct day for the OP to buy back in while losing as little money as possible.  Because today's vtsax closing price was $70.56 per share, a high for 2019.

junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11 after one week of trying to time the market.
On Feb 22 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $1,866.26 after two weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 01 the closing price was $70.28, meaning that he had cost himself $2,402.03 after three weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 08 the closing price was $68.62, meaning that he had cost himself $919.73 after four weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 15 the closing price was $70.56, meaning that he has cost himself $2,652.05 after five weeks of trying to time the market.

So we're over a month into this experiment, and there hasn't been a single day when the OP could have bought back in at a lower price than he sold for.  So far, this has been a monumentally bad call. 

Just to be clear, I don't claim to know any better.  My crystal ball is totally not-magic, and when we started tracking this thread I had no idea if he was going to be right or wrong.  I have no idea what the market is going to do tomorrow, or next month, and neither does anyone else.  But I do know that trying to make money by timing the market is necessarily an exercise in betting against the house.  The long term average has always been upwards, and any time you sell with an intention to re-buy you are betting that it will at some point go down instead.  So I don't play that game. 

Right about now I'm guessing junioroldtimer is wishing he hadn't played, either.


MrOnyx

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #127 on: March 17, 2019, 04:26:53 AM »
[...]
Right about now I'm guessing junioroldtimer is wishing he hadn't played, either.

I can't speak for anyone else, but I suspect JOT doesn't wish they hadn't played this game. Indeed, if we do at some point over the next few months have a recession that causes a dip that's even as big as 10/15%, JOT can buy back in at a profit. Yeah, that's a big if, and it's not a gamble that I'd take, but it's still possible to win here.

I can't remember if they ever predicted how long it would take for the market to do what they said it would, so I don't know if it's too early to say that JOT is wishing they hadn't started this.

The caveat is when they start losing out on dividend payments. I know they can be at different times depending on what particular fund you held, but that's the big thing at the moment.

waltworks

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #128 on: March 17, 2019, 06:25:32 AM »
Yeah, there will be a dividend distribution this week - on Thursday, I believe. VTSAX only yields like 1.9% right now but that's still real money JOT is not going to be getting.

-W
« Last Edit: March 17, 2019, 06:27:34 AM by waltworks »

ender

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #129 on: March 17, 2019, 06:26:23 AM »
I'm really hoping there's a market drop to justify this because we're rolling over a 403b now and it'd be nice timing for that ;-)

Wrenchturner

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #130 on: March 19, 2019, 12:34:59 AM »
Eh.  Looking at his to-date losses seems too noisy anyway.  He could be right in a year, but wrong in five.  Or he could be right this time, and wrong the next time.  I'll stick with "time in the market" because I frankly don't know any better. 

PDXTabs

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #131 on: March 19, 2019, 09:03:31 AM »
Yeah, there will be a dividend distribution this week - on Thursday, I believe. VTSAX only yields like 1.9% right now but that's still real money JOT is not going to be getting.

That depends where the OP parked their money. VMFXX is yielding ~2.4% right now.

sol

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #132 on: March 19, 2019, 09:30:36 AM »
Eh.  Looking at his to-date losses seems too noisy anyway.  He could be right in a year, but wrong in five.  Or he could be right this time, and wrong the next time.  I'll stick with "time in the market" because I frankly don't know any better.

I also don't know any better, and neither does anyone else.

However, the OP has already missed out on a 5% gain in the first five weeks of this experiment, so his odds of making money on this trade continue to drop day by day.  I'm sure the market will drop 15% at some point in the future, I just don't know if it will rise another 25% before it does.  Neither does the OP.

But he took a shot at guessing.  I'm still hoping we get a wild temporary down-swing and he can pounce on a vtsax price lower than $67.59 and declare himself a market timing genius.  That's just looking more and more unlikely the longer we follow along.

Wrenchturner

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #133 on: March 19, 2019, 09:39:19 AM »
Eh.  Looking at his to-date losses seems too noisy anyway.  He could be right in a year, but wrong in five.  Or he could be right this time, and wrong the next time.  I'll stick with "time in the market" because I frankly don't know any better.

I also don't know any better, and neither does anyone else.

However, the OP has already missed out on a 5% gain in the first five weeks of this experiment, so his odds of making money on this trade continue to drop day by day.  I'm sure the market will drop 15% at some point in the future, I just don't know if it will rise another 25% before it does.  Neither does the OP.

But he took a shot at guessing.  I'm still hoping we get a wild temporary down-swing and he can pounce on a vtsax price lower than $67.59 and declare himself a market timing genius.  That's just looking more and more unlikely the longer we follow along.
True.  It's a good illustration for bad psychology I suppose.  Everybody has a plan until they get face-punched.

waltworks

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #134 on: March 19, 2019, 10:16:08 AM »
That depends where the OP parked their money. VMFXX is yielding ~2.4% right now.

OP said it was all in VTSAX.

-W

EvenSteven

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #135 on: March 19, 2019, 10:24:46 AM »
That depends where the OP parked their money. VMFXX is yielding ~2.4% right now.

OP said it was all in VTSAX.

-W

PDX probably meant it depends on where they put all that cash once they sold their VTSAX, with VMFXX being a common sweep account.

waltworks

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #136 on: March 19, 2019, 10:53:20 AM »
That depends where the OP parked their money. VMFXX is yielding ~2.4% right now.

OP said it was all in VTSAX.

-W

PDX probably meant it depends on where they put all that cash once they sold their VTSAX, with VMFXX being a common sweep account.

Ah, gotcha. I don't think we'll be hearing from OP again on this anyway, c'est la vie.

-W

sol

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #137 on: March 19, 2019, 11:00:28 AM »
I don't think we'll be hearing from OP again on this anyway, c'est la vie.

I'm not so sure.  If you check his profile, you'll see that he's been active on the forum this morning.  He went offline for like the first two weeks after starting this thread, but he's been back since.  I'm pretty sure he's still reading along.

Hi, junioroldtimer!  Fingers still crossed for you.

waltworks

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #138 on: March 23, 2019, 09:36:58 AM »
Hey, where's our update, @sol?

With that yield curve inversion, JOT might just have a shot!

-W

tyort1

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #139 on: March 23, 2019, 09:46:47 AM »
The thing about market timers  (and bulls in general) is this:  If the market is a proxy for how well we are doing as a country, (financially) timers and bulls are in the somewhat icky position of having to hope that things go shitty so they can make money.  In other words, they are in the position of hoping others fail so that they can succeed.  That can't be emotionally healthy.  I much prefer the passive index approach - "hey, market's up, everyone's winning, and I am too!"

The other thing is this:  IME the best thing that can happen when someone tries this is that they fail, badly.  Because I've seen with family that if they were successful even just once or twice in the beginning, they will keep trying to time the market over and over and over, even when they are losing money hand over fist.  I've seen people blow through almost their entire stash doing this type of stuff. 

secondcor521

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #140 on: March 23, 2019, 10:12:31 AM »
Hey, where's our update, @sol?

With that yield curve inversion, JOT might just have a shot!

-W

He might, but not this week.

VTSAX closed yesterday at $69.49 per share.  Since JOT sold 892.949 shares at $67.59, that means he is still underwater by $1,696.60 on the shares themselves.  He also lost out on $0.3736 per share of dividends that was paid this week which translates to $333.61 in dividends.  But he might be making a little interest depending on what he did with the proceeds.  But then he'll have to pay taxes on the interest at ordinary income tax rates rather than the qualified dividend tax rate.  And then there could be transaction costs depending on how he executed the trade(s).

sol

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #141 on: March 23, 2019, 10:40:37 AM »
VTSAX closed yesterday at $69.49 per share.  Since JOT sold 892.949 shares at $67.59, that means he is still underwater by $1,696.60 on the shares themselves.  He also lost out on $0.3736 per share of dividends that was paid this week which translates to $333.61 in dividends.  But he might be making a little interest depending on what he did with the proceeds.  But then he'll have to pay taxes on the interest at ordinary income tax rates rather than the qualified dividend tax rate.  And then there could be transaction costs depending on how he executed the trade(s).

See, you guys don't even need me anymore!  You can just copy and paste the list below and add the new week (or month or year or however long this thread takes until junioroldtimer joins us again).

As for dividends, those are real dollars that he missed out on so I think they should get added to his running total.

junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11 after one week of trying to time the market.
On Feb 22 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $1,866.26 after two weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 01 the closing price was $70.28, meaning that he had cost himself $2,402.03 after three weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 08 the closing price was $68.62, meaning that he had cost himself $919.73 after four weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 15 the closing price was $70.56, meaning that he had cost himself $2,652.05 after five weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 22 the closing price was $69.49, meaning that he had cost himself $1,696.60 after six weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,030.21.

Maybe $2k of losses on $60k of assets is enough to convince him this was a bad decision?  Maybe he's holding out for some hoped-for larger future drop?  In his position, I think I might face the mental block of being unable to admit my mistake and cut my losses, causing me to double down on this bet and sell even MORE market funds into cash in an attempt to recover my losses on some future negative fluctuation.

He's still only a few percent off from breaking even, so it's not even unreasonable to assume he might someday see a vtsax spot price at which he could buy back in real quick and declare himself a winner.  But frankly, all of the work of updating this thread every week has been a good reminder for me of another reason why I don't time the market.  I think it would drive me crazy to have check every day trying to catch that little window of profit opportunity.  Indexing is set-and-forget easy, and relaxing, and reassuring, and in the long term a mathematically superior strategy anyway.

And in this case, mathematically superior in the short term, too.  By about two thousand dollars of free money that I have made in the past six weeks by doing nothing with the same amount of money that junioroldtimer decided to cash out.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #142 on: March 23, 2019, 09:06:20 PM »
Well, at least the report JOTs been waiting for just dropped, so I guess we'll find out pretty quick if this was a good move or not.  Personally I think there's a 50/50 chance at best of this report damaging the market in a significant way no matter what it says, but I'm rooting for JOT to get back in at a discount

BigMoneyJim

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #143 on: March 24, 2019, 05:42:44 PM »
Posting to follow.This will continue to be entertaining.

secondcor521

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #144 on: March 24, 2019, 10:37:22 PM »
I remain long-term optimistic on the US stock market but I'm short-term pessimistic. I think the sitting president is going to be impeached and there's going to be a knock-down, drag-out fight in which the markets temporarily plummet as all this Russia stuff comes to light.

At this point it seems the underlying investing thesis isn't working out:

"No Impeachment in View, but Democrats Push On With Investigations of Trump" - https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/24/us/politics/trump-impeachment-democrats.html

"S&P 500 futures flat after report finds no Trump campaign collusion with Russia" - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-500-futures-rise-report-221836472.html

dividendman

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #145 on: March 25, 2019, 10:49:24 AM »
I remain long-term optimistic on the US stock market but I'm short-term pessimistic. I think the sitting president is going to be impeached and there's going to be a knock-down, drag-out fight in which the markets temporarily plummet as all this Russia stuff comes to light.

At this point it seems the underlying investing thesis isn't working out:

"No Impeachment in View, but Democrats Push On With Investigations of Trump" - https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/24/us/politics/trump-impeachment-democrats.html

"S&P 500 futures flat after report finds no Trump campaign collusion with Russia" - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-500-futures-rise-report-221836472.html

Wait...we made the wrong predictions about world events and market reactions to them? How odd...

JAYSLOL

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #146 on: March 26, 2019, 02:33:34 PM »
I remain long-term optimistic on the US stock market but I'm short-term pessimistic. I think the sitting president is going to be impeached and there's going to be a knock-down, drag-out fight in which the markets temporarily plummet as all this Russia stuff comes to light.

At this point it seems the underlying investing thesis isn't working out:

"No Impeachment in View, but Democrats Push On With Investigations of Trump" - https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/24/us/politics/trump-impeachment-democrats.html

"S&P 500 futures flat after report finds no Trump campaign collusion with Russia" - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-500-futures-rise-report-221836472.html

Wait...we made the wrong predictions about world events and market reactions to them? How odd...

Welp, looks like this isn't going to work out, at least for the reasons the OP stated.  Still possible Trump will go down for something not Russia related, or markets will tank for other reasons, but I think we have to call it


ChpBstrd

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #147 on: March 26, 2019, 03:19:57 PM »
I remain long-term optimistic on the US stock market but I'm short-term pessimistic. I think the sitting president is going to be impeached and there's going to be a knock-down, drag-out fight in which the markets temporarily plummet as all this Russia stuff comes to light.

At this point it seems the underlying investing thesis isn't working out:

"No Impeachment in View, but Democrats Push On With Investigations of Trump" - https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/24/us/politics/trump-impeachment-democrats.html

"S&P 500 futures flat after report finds no Trump campaign collusion with Russia" - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-500-futures-rise-report-221836472.html

Wait...we made the wrong predictions about world events and market reactions to them? How odd...

Welp, looks like this isn't going to work out, at least for the reasons the OP stated.  Still possible Trump will go down for something not Russia related, or markets will tank for other reasons, but I think we have to call it

Keep in mind all we've seen is a 4 page summary by a Trump employee. The actual Mueller report has not been disclosed to Congress or anyone else outside the White House. Nor will it be. Instead there will be years of legal wrangling and political gridlock over the issue. Stocks could skyrocket under such stable conditions.

sol

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #148 on: March 29, 2019, 08:41:58 PM »
Another week, another lost opportunity to make money in the stock market.

junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11 after one week of trying to time the market.
On Feb 22 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $1,866.26 after two weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 01 the closing price was $70.28, meaning that he had cost himself $2,402.03 after three weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 08 the closing price was $68.62, meaning that he had cost himself $919.73 after four weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 15 the closing price was $70.56, meaning that he had cost himself $2,652.05 after five weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 22 the closing price was $69.49, meaning that he had cost himself $1,696.60 after six weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,030.21.
On Mar 29 the closing price was $70.43, meaning that he had cost himself $2,535.97 after seven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,869.58.

No comment this week, just sadness.

dividendman

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #149 on: March 29, 2019, 10:48:32 PM »
Another week, another lost opportunity to make money in the stock market.

junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each, converting $60,354.43 into cash.

On Feb 14 the closing price was $68.85, meaning that he had cost himself $1,125.11 after one week of trying to time the market.
On Feb 22 the closing price was $69.98, meaning that he had cost himself $1,866.26 after two weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 01 the closing price was $70.28, meaning that he had cost himself $2,402.03 after three weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 08 the closing price was $68.62, meaning that he had cost himself $919.73 after four weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 15 the closing price was $70.56, meaning that he had cost himself $2,652.05 after five weeks of trying to time the market.
On Mar 22 the closing price was $69.49, meaning that he had cost himself $1,696.60 after six weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,030.21.
On Mar 29 the closing price was $70.43, meaning that he had cost himself $2,535.97 after seven weeks, plus $333.61 in dividends not paid is $2,869.58.

No comment this week, just sadness.

On the bright side, Top might be in for his losses