Author Topic: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market  (Read 4011 times)

junioroldtimer

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Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« on: February 07, 2019, 02:22:33 PM »
I remain long-term optimistic on the US stock market but I'm short-term pessimistic. I think the sitting president is going to be impeached and there's going to be a knock-down, drag-out fight in which the markets temporarily plummet as all this Russia stuff comes to light.

I'll let you guys know how I do. I intend to sell 893 shares of VTSAX. I will buy back in when the price is significantly cheaper.

Current VSTAX price: $68.18

Cross your fingers for me or call me crazy. We'll see how this goes.

JAYSLOL

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #1 on: February 07, 2019, 02:47:50 PM »
Well, I wouldn't agree with the decision to sell, but I do appreciate you actually posting exactly what, when and how much you intend to sell (ahem, thorstach take note).  It should make for some good entertainment, educational case study or if things go well for you super internet bragging rights.  Good luck!

plog

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #2 on: February 07, 2019, 02:52:46 PM »
Quote
president is going to be impeached and there's going to be a knock-down, drag-out fight in which the markets temporarily plummet as all this Russia stuff comes to light

I remember the first time I heard that exact statement---11/8/2016 .  The S&P closed at 2,139 on that date.  All those people are now in Canada and  still waiting to be proven right. 

braje

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #3 on: February 07, 2019, 03:13:23 PM »
Curious as to what price you intend to buy back in is.

UnleashHell

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #4 on: February 07, 2019, 03:15:33 PM »
dude.
you created 7 identical threads.
if you can't use a forum then why do you think you can time the market?

ILikeDividends

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #5 on: February 07, 2019, 03:23:45 PM »
Good luck!

Good luck!

Good luck!

Good luck!

Good luck!

Good luck!

Good luck!

junioroldtimer

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #6 on: February 07, 2019, 03:34:45 PM »
Sorry on the multiple threads, I was having some issues with my network connection and never got the confirmation page that my post went out. I've since removed them.

junioroldtimer

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #7 on: February 07, 2019, 03:35:48 PM »
I tried to remove them -- apparently I can't delete my own posts. I'll need a moderator to clean that mess up.

junioroldtimer

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #8 on: February 07, 2019, 03:39:00 PM »
dude.
you created 7 identical threads.
if you can't use a forum then why do you think you can time the market?

I don't know why your inference of my critical thinking skills hinge on the stability of the MMM forum but I wish you the best.

junioroldtimer

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #9 on: February 07, 2019, 03:40:18 PM »
Curious as to what price you intend to buy back in is.

I haven't worked that out but I have a sinking feeling that things are going to get worse before they get better.

Rob_bob

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #10 on: February 07, 2019, 03:42:36 PM »
So what are you doing to time the market?  Just going to cash?  All or just some % of your portfolio?

If you really believe in a big sell off put some $ into the ProShares Short S&P 500 Inverse ETF ticker SH.

junioroldtimer

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #11 on: February 07, 2019, 03:44:44 PM »
Quote
president is going to be impeached and there's going to be a knock-down, drag-out fight in which the markets temporarily plummet as all this Russia stuff comes to light

I remember the first time I heard that exact statement---11/8/2016 .  The S&P closed at 2,139 on that date.  All those people are now in Canada and  still waiting to be proven right.

Robert Mueller is winding down his investigation. The president (liked Nixon) asked to stop being investigated. He is going to be found guilty of more than a handful of crimes.

junioroldtimer

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #12 on: February 07, 2019, 03:45:22 PM »
So what are you doing to time the market?  Just going to cash?  All or just some % of your portfolio?

If you really believe in a big sell off put some $ into the ProShares Short S&P 500 Inverse ETF ticker SH.

Yes, going back to cash for now.

Villanelle

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #13 on: February 07, 2019, 03:52:17 PM »
Curious as to what price you intend to buy back in is.

I haven't worked that out but I have a sinking feeling that things are going to get worse before they get better.

This seems like a pretty key thing to figure out as part of this decision, no?  Otherwise, how will you know when you've reached "significantly cheaper"?  And will you create any kind of trigger to get back in the market if you aren't at that "cheaper" level?  Otherwise, it's possible you could actually never get back in the market, if there isn't the significant drop you are looking for.

Seems like these are questions you should answer ASAP.  I plan to buy back all shares/dollars when VTSAX reaches $60, or no matter what after 18 months, regardless of price." (Or "at 18 months I'll buy back half, and give the other half 18 months to hit $60, before buying that back, too.  Or whatever.)  That's actually executable, at least.  Otherwise, you are just flailing around without a plan.

max9505672

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #14 on: February 07, 2019, 03:59:17 PM »
PTF

junioroldtimer

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #15 on: February 07, 2019, 04:12:19 PM »
I'll be the first to admit it if this blows up in my face.

MrThatsDifferent

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #16 on: February 07, 2019, 04:16:51 PM »
Heís not going to be impeached, sadly. The worst (best for us) scenario would be resigning before impeachment. But this is DT, he wonít do that as it would hurt his brand. What will help his brand is simply to not run for a second term. Thereís no reason he should. He can say heís accomplished everything on earth during his first term and with Dems blocking him thereís no point for a second. Then he builds the TrumpTV network that was the original plan and becomes some conservative god, I guess. Although, NY will go after him hard and most likely get him on something, which canít be pardoned. That should be yummy but wonít impact the markets.

I donít think your doomsday scenario makes sense really. It would take something bigger than him to cause the scenario youíre describing. Anyways, might as well play the lottery too ;-)

solon

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #17 on: February 07, 2019, 04:36:18 PM »
Have you actually sold the shares, yet? Be sure to post the date and share price when you sell.

MissNancyPryor

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #18 on: February 07, 2019, 04:48:37 PM »
Too bad MrPercentage never was so honest about his attempts to time things.  That dude lied A LOT.

I canít wish you good luck, I hope it is a bust, but I admire the moxie to be honest. 

Brother Esau

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #19 on: February 07, 2019, 05:07:09 PM »
Good luck!

Good luck!

Good luck!

Good luck!

Good luck!

Good luck!

Good luck!

Hahahaaaa!!!!

PDXTabs

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #20 on: February 07, 2019, 07:47:03 PM »
Robert Mueller is winding down his investigation. The president (liked Nixon) asked to stop being investigated. He is going to be found guilty of more than a handful of crimes.

If he is smart, like Nixon, he will step down in exchange for a blanket pardon at the Federal level.

Good luck with the market timing. I tried some of that at the begging of his term and got burned. The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent, or something like that.

ILikeDividends

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #21 on: February 07, 2019, 08:06:37 PM »
Robert Mueller is winding down his investigation. The president (liked Nixon) asked to stop being investigated. He is going to be found guilty of more than a handful of crimes.

If he is smart, like Nixon, he will step down in exchange for a blanket pardon at the Federal level.
#1 A presidential pardon is only available for Federal crimes.  State convictions, such as some of what the SDNY is going after, cannot be pardoned by any President.

#2 Any federal criminals pardoned by the president lose any immunity granted under the 5th amendment for those crimes (since they can no longer be prosecuted for them).  So, once pardoned, they can be subpoenaed by a prosecutor or by Congress, and they have to answer questions, or do time for contempt until they do.  Any new acts of perjury committed in new testimony would be new crimes that can then be prosecuted.

Compared to Trump, Nixon was basically just guilty of Federal jaywalking.  Trump might well become the first president to trade the Oval Office in for a prison cell; regardless of whether he is impeached (and then convicted by the Senate) or not.

Trump is trapped in a box.  I don't think he is going to pardon anyone.  And if he doesn't run for -- and WIN -- a second term, the statute of limitations will not yet have expired for whatever he might be guilty of when he leaves (or is ejected from) office.  In other words, he can't resign, unless he actually is the innocent lamb he pretends to be.  And all indications are that his possible connections to many criminal activities within various jurisdictions cannot all be pardoned by a succeeding president; whomever that might turn out to be.
« Last Edit: February 07, 2019, 08:51:38 PM by ILikeDividends »

PDXTabs

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #22 on: February 07, 2019, 08:22:58 PM »
Robert Mueller is winding down his investigation. The president (liked Nixon) asked to stop being investigated. He is going to be found guilty of more than a handful of crimes.

If he is smart, like Nixon, he will step down in exchange for a blanket pardon at the Federal level.
#1 A presidential pardon is only available for Federal crimes.  State convictions, such as some of what the SDNY is going after, cannot be pardoned by any President.

I don't disagree, that's why I specified that the pardon would only be for Federal crimes. But I stand by my statement that if he is smart he will at least get that.

Trevor Reznik

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #23 on: February 08, 2019, 12:46:37 AM »
Be great if it works, but what if good news is on the horizon and the market moves up.  At what point do you buy back in?  Or you just keep hanging out for the drop that doesn't come?

junioroldtimer

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #24 on: February 08, 2019, 07:03:51 AM »
Any point cheaper than $68.18 will be a win, though I'm expecting a steeper discount. The transaction is in progress, I will update this thread with the final sell price.

junioroldtimer

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #25 on: February 08, 2019, 08:20:58 AM »
892.9490 shares sold at $67.59 each for a total of $60,354.42.

GoCubsGo

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #26 on: February 08, 2019, 08:46:42 AM »
Is the $60K a large portion of your portfolio?  Just curious if this is a small slice of a larger equity portfolio or just a 5% gamble.  No need for specifics, just curious.

junioroldtimer

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #27 on: February 08, 2019, 08:53:24 AM »
All the marbles (in my taxable investment account).

I have a handful of other retirement accounts (HSA, 401ks, Roth, tIRA) totaling approximately $100k.

economist

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #28 on: February 08, 2019, 08:56:47 AM »
Oof. I'll say that as someone who isn't a fan of the current leadership, I still think timing the market for political reasons is a very dangerous game. The people who thought Obama was a socialist who would destroy the economy missed out on one of the greatest bull markets in history. The people who said we were due for a recession once Trump was elected have missed out on further, less spectacular, but still good gains.

Even during an impeachment trial, if one happens, the overwhelming majority of the government and economy will basically continue as it has been. The market cares much more about earnings and wage growth than it does politics.

Mississippi Mudstache

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #29 on: February 08, 2019, 09:12:46 AM »
892.9490 shares sold at $67.59 each for a total of $60,354.42.

I don't agree with your logic, but kudos for giving us actual numbers to back up your trades.

UnleashHell

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #30 on: February 08, 2019, 09:44:50 AM »
dude.
you created 7 identical threads.
if you can't use a forum then why do you think you can time the market?

I don't know why your inference of my critical thinking skills hinge on the stability of the MMM forum but I wish you the best.

it looked funny. thats all.

sol

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #31 on: February 08, 2019, 09:57:26 AM »
892.9490 shares sold at $67.59 each for a total of $60,354.42.

I don't agree with your logic, but kudos for giving us actual numbers to back up your trades.

That was yesterday's (Feb7) vtsax closing price.  It's also noteworthy that he already missed the first wiggle, because between making a decision when this thread started and actually having the trade execute at end-of-day prices, vtsax dropped about 1%.  Nothing quite like starting out in the hole, amirite?

I used to play this game with my regular taxable investments, shoveling a few hundred dollars in per week and only getting end-of-day pricing.  It was always a game, where I was hoping that the market would drop between clicking the "buy" button and the trade actually executing at the end of the day, so that I could get slightly more fractional shares than I thought I was getting when I made the decision.  But junior is doing the reverse, pre-selling instead of pre-buying.

So far, the sp500 is red for the day.  Take your wins, Junior!  Buy back in today and claim victory!  Be an internet legend, the guy who timed the market and WON!

junioroldtimer

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #32 on: February 08, 2019, 10:34:34 AM »
I put
892.9490 shares sold at $67.59 each for a total of $60,354.42.

I don't agree with your logic, but kudos for giving us actual numbers to back up your trades.

That was yesterday's (Feb7) vtsax closing price.  It's also noteworthy that he already missed the first wiggle, because between making a decision when this thread started and actually having the trade execute at end-of-day prices, vtsax dropped about 1%.  Nothing quite like starting out in the hole, amirite?

I used to play this game with my regular taxable investments, shoveling a few hundred dollars in per week and only getting end-of-day pricing.  It was always a game, where I was hoping that the market would drop between clicking the "buy" button and the trade actually executing at the end of the day, so that I could get slightly more fractional shares than I thought I was getting when I made the decision.  But junior is doing the reverse, pre-selling instead of pre-buying.

So far, the sp500 is red for the day.  Take your wins, Junior!  Buy back in today and claim victory!  Be an internet legend, the guy who timed the market and WON!

I put my order in before 4PM ET yesterday. I had already executed the sell order before posting on the forum.

phildonnia

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #33 on: February 08, 2019, 11:00:29 AM »
I have a fantasy portfolio on MarketWatch, where I concentrate all my market-timing genius.  I've discovered that I'm not a genius.  My strategy is generally to assume that whatever I hear on the news is overblown hype.  This often works well, but I did end up making several purchases of Pacific Gas & Electric, which is now in bankruptcy.

In real life, I hold boring diversified funds forever, and don't worry about it.  This approach has been very good to me.

StressLess

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #34 on: February 08, 2019, 01:21:53 PM »
To the OP

Sounds like you are risk averse. You should consider changing the fundamentals of your IPS / asset allocation.

I don't remember where I saw it... Maybe will Bernstein book but...

Never more than 75% equities and never less than 25% equities...

Portfolios with > 75% equities are not for the emotional types...

frugledoc

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #35 on: February 08, 2019, 02:09:47 PM »
I remain long-term optimistic on the US stock market but I'm short-term pessimistic. I think the sitting president is going to be impeached and there's going to be a knock-down, drag-out fight in which the markets temporarily plummet as all this Russia stuff comes to light.

I'll let you guys know how I do. I intend to sell 893 shares of VTSAX. I will buy back in when the price is significantly cheaper.

Current VSTAX price: $68.18

Cross your fingers for me or call me crazy. We'll see how this goes.

an honourable market timer for once, actually posting details before the event.

Good luck!    What price will buy back in at, and do you have a Plan B if the market crashes up?

MrThatsDifferent

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #36 on: February 08, 2019, 02:28:16 PM »
But, wonít he have to pay CGT on what heís sold? And while the money is sitting outside eating little, isnít he losing all of that? So really, if you add it all up, he has to make up for the lost opportunity. Or am I missing something?

What a bizarre, unnecessary gamble.

Eric

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #37 on: February 08, 2019, 03:34:47 PM »
892.9490 shares sold at $67.59 each for a total of $60,354.42.

I don't agree with your logic, but kudos for giving us actual numbers to back up your trades.

Seconded.

I don't know how you can look at the amount of volatility of the last 5 months and have any idea which direction it would go from here, but I'm definitely interested to watch and appreciate the transparency.

I do have one question.  Are you factoring the tax bill into the equation?


sol

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #38 on: February 08, 2019, 03:52:34 PM »
I put my order in before 4PM ET yesterday. I had already executed the sell order before posting on the forum.

I'm a little confused about why you first posted the price from two days ago when you submitted your order that was eventually executed at yesterday's price.

But no matter, you say you sold at $67.59  Today the market had a late hours rally and closed barely in the green, so you missed out on a tiny amount of gains by selling yesterday instead of continuing to hold. 

I also have at least $60k in my taxable account invested in vtsax, and today I am richer by doing nothing than you are by selling, by a tiny tiny amount.  Let's see what next week brings, shall we?

Boofinator

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #39 on: February 08, 2019, 03:59:22 PM »
892.9490 shares sold at $67.59 each for a total of $60,354.42.

I don't agree with your logic, but kudos for giving us actual numbers to back up your trades.

Seconded.

I don't know how you can look at the amount of volatility of the last 5 months and have any idea which direction it would go from here, but I'm definitely interested to watch and appreciate the transparency.

I do have one question.  Are you factoring the tax bill into the equation?

Excellent point. Unless you can capital gains harvest, taxes will drag down any timing strategy by a significant amount.

nsmall

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #40 on: February 08, 2019, 08:20:26 PM »
I appreciate the OP for sharing what they are up too.  This was a real fun thread to read.

Can't you find a new asset allocation and play games with lets say $5,000????  Maybe I missed this, but are trying to increase your time to retire by making this gamble?

You have 100k invested, 63k in cash, that 63k is 39% of your total investments.  Again, I like your honesty and maybe you can be right, but most likely you will be wrong long term.
« Last Edit: February 08, 2019, 09:46:44 PM by nsmall »

ChpBstrd

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #41 on: February 08, 2019, 09:50:04 PM »
1) Why not use stop-loss orders or options to create a position where, if you are incorrect about the market's future you still get to enjoy most of the market's gains over a period of years, and if you are right you lose very little? You can't do this with VTSAX but you could with SPY. Little to lose and lots to gain sounds much better than making a big binary bet on gut instinct.

2) Why sit in cash? At least buy a treasury bond and earn 2% per year instead of nothing.That's $1200/year.

3) By what mechanism would impeachment lead to reduced corporate earnings or projections of future earnings? Did you see how the market rallied during the federal shutdown just last month? Research has also shown that markets do better during periods of divided government and gridlock. Investors get excited when there is a low risk of disruptive legislation passing, and the impeachment process would represent full federal paralysis and distraction.

brandino29

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #42 on: February 08, 2019, 10:33:26 PM »
Posting to follow.

sol

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #43 on: February 12, 2019, 07:51:59 PM »
892.9490 shares sold at $67.59 each for a total of $60,354.42.

I feel obligated to check in on this thread periodically for accountability purposes.

junioroldtimer sold 892.949 shares on February 7th at $67.59 each.  Today's closing price was $68.64, meaning that he has cost himself $937.60 in his first first five days of trying to time the market.  Only three of those days were trading days!

All values reported here are assuming zero transaction costs and zero tax liabilities.  I sure hope none of that $60k sale was short term capital gains!


I'll be the first to admit it if this blows up in my face.

What's your timeline like for making that determination?  At what date and/or price are you planning to buy back in?
« Last Edit: February 12, 2019, 08:21:35 PM by sol »

JAYSLOL

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #44 on: February 12, 2019, 09:13:34 PM »
What's your timeline like for making that determination?  At what date and/or price are you planning to buy back in?

Pretty sure the answer is "I'm winging it". 

theolympians

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #45 on: February 12, 2019, 09:56:20 PM »
Question (It may have been written here, so this may be a repeat): Was the sale in a retirement account? If so any gains would not be taxed. However, if in a taxable account the sale would. Am I correct?

While I don't believe in the reasons (speculations) for his market timing, I am impressed he put up some numbers.

Much Fishing to Do

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #46 on: February 13, 2019, 05:41:36 AM »
This is an awesome thread.  Let us know how and when you have a plan regarding buying back in, it sounds like maybe when or slightly after an impeachment is imminent? Or if no impeachment when if and when it appears he'll lose the election.  And if neither of those then maybe at the end of next term? 

I used to enjoy doing this but was always such a wimp and did it with such a small portion of my acct I just decided to bet sports with that money instead.  THough one thing I did do differently is I always used my IRAs and not my taxable so I didnt have to worry about any tax implications (or even having to keep up with the transactions for tax purposes at all)

MrOnyx

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #47 on: February 13, 2019, 06:10:25 AM »
Oh boy, the latest episode of "watch someone on the MMM forums try to time the market"!

Like others have said though, good on you and thanks for sharing actual numbers rather than just spouting words with no material.

Blueberries

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #48 on: February 13, 2019, 08:58:28 AM »
Timing the general market isn't for me, but good luck! 

Timing the general market is a tough game, even for those who successfully time stock purchases.  But, this thread really does give insight into why many people fail at trading.  You can't expect to be successful without a plan.  It's no different than any other venture in which you attempt to make money.  Sure, some get lucky without a plan, but they are the minority.  Their luck only reinforces that if they did it you can do it. 

I hope this works out for the OP. 

JAYSLOL

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Re: Welp, I'm going to take a stab at timing the market
« Reply #49 on: February 13, 2019, 09:25:58 AM »
Timing the general market isn't for me, but good luck! 

I hope this works out for the OP.

I do too, but mostly because I'd love a few years of real nice discounts.