The VIX just hit 15.5 which is another way of saying options are on sale with a relatively low rate of time decay built into the price. We're now back to levels last seen in February 2020. I'm not saying the VIX bottom is in - this low-implied-volatility environment could go on for years, as it did from 2013-2019, and VIX could go down from here - but I am saying that some strategies which didn't make sense previously are starting to make sense now.
Buying protective put options is getting cheaper. Similarly, replacing one's long stock positions with long call positions is getting cheaper - a "calls and cash" risk-hedged strategy with limited downside and unlimited upside.
At-the-money 420-strike SPY calls expiring in 2.51 years currently have an average time decay of 4.1% per year of the strike price. In reality, you suffer much less time decay than that if you roll annually, because time decay accelerates as an option approaches expiration, and is very slow for distant maturities. The same ATM options with 1.5 years remaining are worth $36.10 as opposed to $47.06 for the 2.5 year duration. Thus, we can expect the 2.5 year duration options to lose (47.06-36.10=) $10.96 in time value, all else being equal, in the first year. That's 2.6% of the $420/share strike price lost to time decay. What are the odds the stock market rises less than 2.6% in the next 12 months?
For the expected cost of 2.6%/year in time decay, one can obtain all the remaining price upside of SPY at a maximum risk of only what one paid for the option, or ~11% (that's assuming the option with 1.5 years remaining could become worthless in one year, which won't happen no matter what else happens, but probabilistic math is hard so let's be uber-conservative).
One does miss out on SPY's 1.3% dividend though, and let's conservatively assume we aren't investing our portfolio's remaining cash in short-term bonds yielding anything, so add that to the time decay for a total cost of 3.9% per year to do calls and cash as opposed to long SPY. So it's like an insurance policy for your portfolio with an 11% maximum deductible on a sliding scale and a cost of 3.9%/year. I pay close to 9% of my car's value for insurance per year, and I don't have a "car correction" every year either!
But wait, there's more! If SPY goes down and volatility spikes above its currently low levels, that volatility will contribute to your call option's price and make up for some of the delta lost. So there's a partial hedge involved when the calls and cash strategy is entered in a low-VIX environment. The cash-and-calls portfolio with 1x leverage would be less volatile than a 100% stock portfolio for this reason. One has the opportunity to harvest the options' inflated time value during a high-VIX market panic, and switch back to a long-stock strategy if desired. One would come out ahead in this scenario even if they missed the bottom, as long as they rode out the recovery until VIX was low again. This move would have worked great in December 2018 or April 2020, assuming one had the guts to switch from hedged to unhedged in the midst of a panic. But it's also optional.
These numbers make me wonder why anyone would buy bonds. Long and intermediate duration bonds can lose a lot more than 11%, I assure you. The main downside is the requirement to trade options just after the one-year mark has passed, or else face a higher rate of time decay. This could trigger capital gains taxes if done in taxable accounts, whereas by HODL'ing the stock directly you can defer capital gains forever. This is not an issue in IRA's. But if one has a heavy bond allocation with maybe 2% upside, this strategy offers about the same maximum risk but unlimited upside.
I wrote about calls and cash back in 2019. In hindsight, I wish I had done it instead of enduring 2Q 2020 with long stock! In hindsight, one could have come out ahead by selling one's calls during the high implied volatility of summer 2020, harvesting the time value after enjoying the benefits of the hedge, and rotating into long stock. Hindsight is 2020.
https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/cash-and-calls-talk-me-out-of-it/I think I'll start slowly easing my portfolio into this strategy, and I might go up to 2X leverage if VIX continues to fall toward 2017 levels. Comments/questions/concerns/insults are welcome.