Author Topic: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?  (Read 14166 times)

nugget

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Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« on: January 25, 2017, 09:15:17 AM »
Dear all,
I'd like to exchange a few thoughts on the recent stock ralley around Trump's election and dow's 20'000 scoring.
To me as a EU-citizen it seems obvious that Trump's politics are the exact opposite from sustainable: besides promising companies fewer taxes & regulations, he
-polarizes and splits the US population beyond previously known levels
-actively negates environment and climate protection efforts
-fights free & liberal trade, the very basis of capitalism itself (where the US are one of the biggest winners of Globalisation!)
-impedes peaceful, prospering living-together by promoting racist, chauvinist and selfish thinking
-actively damages liberal media and communictions with his "versions of the truth"
-shows erratic, irrational behavior that is not well supported by reality
-wants to push the economy, financed on more debt
-...

Thinking of the coming 4 or even 8 years (you never know, as we all now know!) of such politics, to me this is the very opposite of building a prosperous nation. Sustainable growth in ecnomic power, wealth, social well being and quality of living is not achieved in this way.

Thinking this [edit] cobination of all time high and hugely unfavorable prospect [/edit] througt to the end, one would have to expect the US economy to drop [edit]long term decline [/edit] as far as Trump turns the liberal american framework in a conservative, protectionist one. Consequently, a mustachian investor would have to reduce his exposure to the US stock market.

I am aware that this is nothing else than stock picking or market timing, so i personally don't commit to this. But what do you think?

« Last Edit: January 25, 2017, 09:32:39 AM by nugget »

erutio

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Re: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« Reply #1 on: January 25, 2017, 09:22:17 AM »
Are you predicting a drop in the US stock market someday?  You are probably correct.

Highbeam

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Re: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« Reply #2 on: January 25, 2017, 09:33:48 AM »
Trump won and now represents the American people. I can tell how you would have voted if you were a US citizen and many of the people that didn't vote for trump are awfully passionate.

jjandjab

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Re: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« Reply #3 on: January 25, 2017, 09:34:39 AM »
In terms of the stock market itself - I'm not going to listen to the noise or try to figure out what I think should happen based on Trump's policies. Brexit was supposed to be a disaster for stocks - and it was for about 2 days. Trumps election night stock future dropped 500 points - and ended up by the end of the next day.

I am a liberal Democrat and I am personally a bit appalled by what is going on, but I also feel very strongly that Washington is truly in need of a change (I would have liked Bernie) and it needed a good kick in the butt. I just hope he doesn't stomp it down into nothingness... But my investing will stay the course - mix of stock and bond index funds.

Sonos

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Re: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« Reply #4 on: January 25, 2017, 10:57:39 AM »
I was just about to make a post similar to this. I'm curious what other forum members think of his presidency purely from a stock market perspective.

Retire-Canada

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Re: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« Reply #5 on: January 25, 2017, 11:04:09 AM »
Since Trump's policies are vague and his track record for sticking with a difficult complex plan is unknown I don't see how anyone can have any clear idea what Trump means for US stocks. I'm not changing anything about my investments.

fattest_foot

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Re: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« Reply #6 on: January 25, 2017, 11:23:58 AM »
A think a lot of what was in your OP is what the media told you it thinks Trump is.

Like the idea that Trump is racist is not rooted in any actual fact. Nor is "impeding free trade" as the things he's getting rid of (NAFTA, TPP, potentially a trade imbalance with China) are not actually free trade.

Retire-Canada

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Re: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« Reply #7 on: January 25, 2017, 11:27:44 AM »
Like the idea that Trump is racist is not rooted in any actual fact.

Get real. He spearheaded the Obama birther movement and that was at its core 100% racist.

plog

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Re: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« Reply #8 on: January 25, 2017, 01:18:33 PM »
Quote
Get real. He spearheaded the Obama birther movement and that was at its core 100% racist.

No, at its core it was the other side of the same coin as what you are doing now--> My side is the right side to be on and I will do and say anything to discredit your side--facts and productive conversations be damned.     

Lagom

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Re: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« Reply #9 on: January 25, 2017, 01:26:15 PM »
Quote
Get real. He spearheaded the Obama birther movement and that was at its core 100% racist.

No, at its core it was the other side of the same coin as what you are doing now--> My side is the right side to be on and I will do and say anything to discredit your side--facts and productive conversations be damned.   

Huh? I mean I agree this happens but the birther battle is not one you want to pick if you want to make a point. It was objectively a conspiracy theory with no basis in reality. Many birthers also used a lot of racist rhetoric, although we'll call that conclusion subjective. Nevertheless, on that topic, if you actually believe Trump, you are objectively and unequivocally wrong.

Now if you want to talk about how Trump will affect the stock market, we can have a more balanced conversation. I do find the rally based on what are so far extremely vague and overly optimistic promises to be a bit suspect, but would be interested to hear an explanation from someone with a greater understanding of economics. Frankly, I would love a dip, not because it will make Trump look bad, but because I am still in accumulation. But it would be hard to complain if we end up with another 4 years of economic expansion.

TheStachery

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Re: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« Reply #10 on: January 25, 2017, 01:37:16 PM »
Love the fact that some of my liberal-leaning friends / co-workers have all pulled out of the stock market last year as a Trump Presidency was likely.  They said they were waiting for the pending market crash after the inauguration.   Meanwhile, just keep doing my thing, and i'm up close to 9% since 11/08/16 - 01/24/17.  Stay the course fools.  Don't try and time the market. :)


Retire-Canada

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Re: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« Reply #11 on: January 25, 2017, 01:38:16 PM »
Don't try and time the market. :)

Yes.

jmutt

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Re: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« Reply #12 on: January 25, 2017, 01:38:58 PM »
Any suggestions from Mustachians on how to play an anticipated Trump Bump Dump?

Retire-Canada

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Re: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« Reply #13 on: January 25, 2017, 01:44:16 PM »
Any suggestions from Mustachians on how to play an anticipated Trump Bump Dump?

Just do the same thing you would do anytime. Save, invest and don't time the market.

beastykato

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Re: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« Reply #14 on: January 25, 2017, 01:51:32 PM »
If there is a dip I will "time" it.  I'll front-load on a big enough dip instead of my typical bi-weekly DCA.  Assuming I have the liquid funds available to do so. 

As for the market, I think you better put on your climbing gear if the corporate tax rate gets cut as promised.  Hopefully, the capital gains taxes get cut too.

Pay no mind to the ninnies dressed like vaginas breaking Starbucks windows, just walk thru the broken window and step over them to get your coffee.

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« Reply #15 on: January 25, 2017, 02:25:20 PM »
Most of the things Trump has said he will do would actually cause the market to go up.

Cutting the corporate tax rate

Getting rid of environmental roadblocks

More spending on infrastructure

It is a market's wet dream.  I am not saying it is right, but you can either go with it and donate some of the extra money you made toward electing a Democrat in 2020 or you can sit out and be disgusted at the Trump rally.

TheAnonOne

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Re: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« Reply #16 on: January 25, 2017, 02:45:45 PM »
The market doesn't really care about the racism or other things that people associate to the president.

It may hurt if too many anti-trade policy changes go in, but time will tell. Over my lifetime, Trump will be but a small speedbump. I also think he is as likely to stimulate growth as he is to hurt it.

Livewell

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Re: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« Reply #17 on: January 25, 2017, 06:19:28 PM »
Economically speaking Republicans favor policies that are good for capital, Democrats look to favor the worker more.

Why I favor Democrats economically is because you need workers to do well in order for an economy to function best over the long haul.  Republican policies are generally great short term, those with capital (including all of us) will like what we see, but realize the seeds of the day of reckoning are being sown.  Market wise I like to think of it as a sugar high versus eating healthy. 

For now, party on Garth! 

Rockies

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Re: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« Reply #18 on: January 25, 2017, 06:57:04 PM »
Based solely on the currently very very high Schiller P/E ratio I'd say that this rally isnt sustainable. But no rallies ever are. My concern is where I will be at in 30 years.One thing I will be doing is keeping an eye on my portfolio and rebalancing so that this bubble doesnt distort my asset allocation.

The Schiller P/E is currently at 28.48. Its only been higher twice in history and it is reaching close to what it was before the crash in 1929. Here is a link - the graph speaks volumes: http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/

People are careful to point out, however that the Schiller P/E isnt perfect for predicting bubbles, rather it is quite good at estimating future returns on stocks. This means money put into the market now would be estimated to preform rather poorly than money put in at other points in history.

« Last Edit: January 25, 2017, 07:45:36 PM by Rockies »

dividendman

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Re: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« Reply #19 on: January 25, 2017, 07:00:33 PM »
Presidents don't impact the stock market in the long run.

nugget

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Re: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« Reply #20 on: January 27, 2017, 04:02:13 AM »
Presidents don't impact the stock market in the long run.

Probably Trum is not quite the same as Erdogan, and there hasn't happened a putsch in US recently, but I quite disagree with this statement by the example of Turky.

The one thing i really dont understand is all the protectionism that Trump pushes. Wherever protectionism was applied in history, it always enhances structures that are not competitive on the market. Hence reducing overall welfare (=economic ower) on a mid/ long term compared to liberal trading

chasesfish

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Re: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« Reply #21 on: January 27, 2017, 05:57:27 AM »
Does the presidency effect the stock market?

Well, not directly.  The change in administration can absolutely change the economic growth rate.   There is some portion of GDP that's driven by business capital spending, which is confidence driven and has been VERY low for the past ten years.  This means equipment/business assets are very old relative to historical levels and business owners may be more likely to spend.   The prospect of a slightly less imposing regulatory environment combined with potentially lower tax rates (or at least minimal new regulations) are going to make businesses more likely to spend.

Anecdotally,I've seen a LOT more confidence in this community based on the changes.  Does it last?  Who knows.

Now, as this applies to the stock market, it may have gotten ahead of itself.    Only time will tell if the recent rally fully priced in the higher GDP growth or if it has room to grow. 

BlueHouse

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Re: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« Reply #22 on: January 27, 2017, 06:05:07 AM »
Most of the things Trump has said he will do would actually cause the market to go up.

Cutting the corporate tax rate

Getting rid of environmental roadblocks

More spending on infrastructure

It is a market's wet dream.  I am not saying it is right, but you can either go with it and donate some of the extra money you made toward electing a Democrat in 2020 or you can sit out and be disgusted at the Trump rally.
Yeah, but isn't the OP asking if the market will drop again once all the promises can't be met?  Building his wall is very unlikely in the way he has laid it out. What happens to the construction sector when all those companies that thought they hit the lottery realize they need to find their own business instead of waiting to suck off the govt teat again for yet another attempt at a wall

Shor

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Re: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« Reply #23 on: January 27, 2017, 09:18:25 AM »
Here's an example, Mr Trump signed off on an Executive Order to push the Dakota Access and Keystone XL Pipeline through 3 days ago.
Does this help the economy, yes. Does it address the concerns of environmental activists? Not directly, but the people on the ground have already taken in those concerns and whether they adjust their plan based on it is up to them, not to Trump.

This will impact the oil and gas sector, but it will be a net gain for the economy, while maybe an overall blow on countries and corporations that are more focused on processing/exporting oil. It is still an overall economic growth.

GuitarStv

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Re: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« Reply #24 on: January 27, 2017, 10:04:49 AM »
Quote
Get real. He spearheaded the Obama birther movement and that was at its core 100% racist.

No, at its core it was the other side of the same coin as what you are doing now--> My side is the right side to be on and I will do and say anything to discredit your side--facts and productive conversations be damned.   


OK.  Let's bring some facts to the discussion.  Is there any evidence that to suggest that Trump is racist?


Donald Trump violated the civil rights act by refusing to rent homes to black people.

    http://www.nytimes.com/times-insider/2015/07/30/1973-meet-donald-trump/
    http://new.www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/04/29/donald-trump-blacks-lawsuit_n_855553.html
    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/12/15/doj-trump-s-early-businesses-blocked-blacks.html
    http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/09/07/the-death-and-life-of-atlantic-city

Trump continued to refuse to rent homes to black people three years after Justice Department ruling on the matter sides against Trump.

    http://www.nytimes.com/1978/03/07/archives/trump-charged-with-rental-bias.html
    http://www.nytimes.com/1983/10/16/realestate/for-starrett-city-an-integration-test.html?scp=4&sq=trump+discrimination&st=nyt&pagewanted=all

Trump ordered blacks to leave casino floor whenever he or his wife arrives on property.

    http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/09/07/the-death-and-life-of-atlantic-city

1991 book written by Trump Plaza Hotel & Casino President quotes Trump as saying:

ďIíve got black accountants at Trump Castle and Trump Plaza. Black guys counting my money! I hate it. The only kind of people I want counting my money are short guys that wear yarmulkes every dayÖ . I think the guy is lazy. And itís probably not his fault because laziness is a trait in blacks. It really is, I believe that. Itís not anything they can control.ď

    http://articles.philly.com/1991-05-10/news/25795529_1_trump-associates-trump-s-atlantic-city-donald-trump

Trump built a casino in black majority city and breaks promise to mayor about hiring locals, refrains to hire the minorities and opting to staff the casino with almost exclusively all Caucasian employees.

    http://www.nydailynews.com/archives/money/trump-hit-race-suit-blacks-don-dealt-casino-jobs-article-1.726389

Trump was asked about replacing TSA's 'heebeejabis' with veterans, responded with:

"We're looking at it"

    http://www.npr.org/2016/06/30/484229621/woman-asks-trump-about-replacing-tsas-heebejabis-with-veterans
    http://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-response-anti-muslim-tsa-worker-question-veterans-2016-7
    http://time.com/4039658/trump-obama-muslim/

Trump responded to accusations of racism by hiring a former aid for Joseph McCarthy to sue the government for half a billion dollars.

    http://www.salon.com/2011/04/28/donald_trump_discrimination_suit/

Trump kept books of Hitler Speeches by his bed.

    http://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trumps-ex-wife-once-said-he-kept-a-book-of-hitlers-speeches-by-his-bed-2015-8
    http://forward.com/the-assimilator/318664/trump-and-hitler/
    http://www.gq.com/story/donald-trump-hitler-speeches-book

Trump's campaign photoshopped a white model black.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trumps-people-almost-definitely-photoshopped-a-white-model-to-make-her-black_us_56d872d5e4b03a405677a680
    http://www.rawstory.com/2016/03/donald-trump-photoshopped-models-to-be-african-american-in-his-online-store/

Trump refused to disavow support from the Klu Klux Klan multiple times during interview only to change his mind later on twitter.

    http://www.dailywire.com/news/3739/disgusting-trump-reverses-himself-refuses-disavow-ben-shapiro
    https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-kkk-cnn-tapper-154053871.html
    http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/02/28/468455028/trump-wont-condemn-kkk-says-he-knows-nothing-about-white-supremacists
    http://time.com/4240268/donald-trump-kkk-david-duke/
    http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/david-duke-trump-219777

The KKK endorses Trump.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2016/04/a-lot-of-what-he-believes-we-believe-kkk-grand-imperial-wizard-endorses-trump/
    http://www.snopes.com/2016/05/02/klan-leader-endorses-trump/
    http://thinkprogress.org/justice/2016/04/30/3774243/ku-klux-klan-imperial-wizard-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/

Trump retweets message from Pro-Hitler, white genocide conspiracy Twitter account.

    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/trump-whitegenocidetm-retweet
    http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/430201/donald-trump-retweets-white-genocide-twitter-user
    http://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-retweets-white-genocide-account-based-in-jewmerica/
    http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/donald-trump-retweets-neo-nazi-sympathizer-article-1.2506735

Analysis shows that 62% of the people Trump retweeted on the week of January 19th 2016 were white supremacist accounts.

    http://www.getlittlebird.com/blog/data-62-of-the-people-donald-trump-rted-this-week-follow-multiple-white-supremacist-accounts

Trump picks famed white supremacist leader as delegate.

    http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/05/donald-trump-white-nationalist-afp-delegate-california

    http://littlegreenfootballs.com/article/45928_Donald_Trump_Picks_Well-Known_White_Nationalist_Leader_as_a_Delegate_in_California

    http://www.nationalmemo.com/trump-picks-white-nationalist-leader-as-delegate/

Trump's son gives interview with Holocaust denying radio show host who wants to bring back slavery.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Political_Cesspool#Donald_Trump_Jr._interview

    http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/03/donald-trump-son-pro-slavery-host-interview-220120?lo=ap_c1

    http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/271501-trump-grants-press-credentials-to-pro-white-radio-show

Trump's "my African-American" isn't even a Trump supporter.

    http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/06/05/480864303/trumps-african-american-i-am-not-a-trump-supporter

Trump gives press credentials to white supremacist radio host.

    http://www.nationalmemo.com/donald-trump-gives-interview-pres-credentials-to-white-supremacist/

Trump discriminated against Native-Americans as well.

    http://www.courant.com/business/dan-haar/hc-haar-donald-trump-connecticut-indians-weicker-20150810-column.html

Six former contestants of The Apprentice blast Trump as a racist and sexist.

    http://www.nbcnews.com/news/nbcblk/former-apprentice-contestants-denounce-donald-trump-s-candidacy-n556306

Trumps father was arrested for attacking police officers at KKK rally.

    http://boingboing.net/2015/09/09/1927-news-report-donald-trump.html
    http://addictinginfo.org/2015/09/09/donald-trumps-dad-was-arrested-during-kkk-rally-that-attacked-two-police-officers/
    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/fred-trump-arrest-1927-kkk

Public Policy Polling polls Trump supporters and discovers:

    60% Support banning Muslims from entering the United States

    50% Support the Confederate flag hanging on the capital grounds

    30% Support shutting down all mosques in the United States

    30% Wish the South won the civil war

    25% Islam should be illegal in the United States

    25% Support the policy of Japanese Internment

    20% Support banning homosexuals from entering the United States

    10% Say Whites are a superior race

    (11% arenít sure one way or another)

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_SC_21616.pdf

    http://www.thenewcivilrightsmovement.com/davidbadash/one_out_of_three_trump_voters_in_sc_would_ban_gays_from_entering_the_u_s

    http://www.lgbtqnation.com/2016/02/guess-how-many-donald-trump-supporters-want-gay-people-barred-from-entering-america/

Trump refuses to condemn violence against muslims and African-Americans committed by his supporters.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-idUSKCN0WM0RJ
    http://www.japantoday.com/category/world/view/trump-refuses-to-condemn-violence-at-his-rallies

When asked for comments on two of his supporters who brutally beat and urinated on a Hispanic homeless man while yelling Pro-Trump Slogans, Trump responds by defending the men as just being "passionate".

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2015/08/21/trump-says-fans-are-very-passionate-after-hearing-one-of-them-allegedly-assaulted-hispanic-man/
    http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/donald-trump-calls-boston-brothers-who-beat-homeless-hispanic-man-his-name-passionate-1516392
    https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2015/08/20/after-two-brothers-allegedly-beat-homeless-man-one-them-admiringly-quote-donald-trump-deporting-illegals/I4NXR3Dr7litLi2NB4f9TN/story.html

The Economist polls Trump supporters and discovers:

    15% disapprove of slavery being abolished

    - (Another 20% arenít sure one way or another)

    50% support the use of torture on foreign enemy combatants

    - (Another 25% arenít sure one way or another)

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ctucuikdsj/econToplines.pdf

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/25/upshot/measuring-donald-trumps-supporters-for-intolerance.html?smid=tw-share&_r=2

    http://time.com/4236640/donald-trump-racist-supporters/

80% of Trump's supporters claim to have no problem with racist comments.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2016/06/12/8o-percent-gop-voters-trumps-racist-comments-totally-fine.html

Trump falsely claims 4 out of 5 white people who were victims of homicide were murdered by blacks.

    http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/nov/23/donald-trump/trump-tweet-blacks-white-homicide-victims/

Trump believes that Mexicans are rapist by default.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yi33KkhKRWs
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2015/07/08/donald-trumps-false-comments-connecting-mexican-immigrants-and-crime/

Trump tweeted an anti-semitic tweet likely depicting Hillary jewish.

    http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-star-david-225058?cmpid=sf
    https://twitter.com/BraddJaffy/status/749239879645687808
    https://mic.com/articles/147711/donald-trump-s-star-of-david-hillary-clinton-meme-was-created-by-white-supremacists#.tfw8osmNX

The HRC David star tweet turned out to originate from a neo-nazi website.

    http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/D/DC_GOP_2016_TRUMP_TWEET?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT
    http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/donald-trump-s-star-david-tweet-about-hillary-clinton-posted-n603161

Trump retweets quote from Italian Dictator Benito Mussolini.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-35682844
    http://time.com/4240330/donald-trump-benito-mussolini-quote/
    http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/02/28/donald-trump-retweets-post-likening-him-to-mussolini/

Trump uses picture of Nazi soldiers in official campaign poster.

    https://news.vice.com/article/donald-trump-just-tweeted-and-deleted-a-picture-featuring-nazi-ss-soldiers?utm_source=vicenewstwitter
    https://i.imgur.com/JDqBCXd.jpg

Trump's spokesman, Katrina Pierson, critized Obama for being "a negro" and not "pure-breed".

    http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/jan/29/katrina-pierson-donald-trump-spokeswoman-defends-t/
    http://www.rawstory.com/2016/01/top-trump-official-defends-call-for-pure-breed-president-obama-is-a-half-breed-and-so-am-i/
    http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/266845-trump-spokeswoman-defends-pure-breeds-tweet

Opinions of his supporters.

    20% of Trump's supporters think that freeing the slaves was a bad thing. http://time.com/4236640/donald-trump-racist-supporters/

    65% of Trump's supporters think Obama is a muslim. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/05/gop-quickly-unifies-around-trump-clinton-still-has-modest-lead.html#more

    64% of Trump's supporters think that "Muslims should be subject to more scrutiny" http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/05/11/trump-supporters-differ-from-other-gop-voters-on-foreign-policy-immigration-issues/?utm_content=buffer053ac&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

    Trump supporters are more likely than supporters of other Republican candidates to have negative feelings towards feminists, Muslims, Latinos, Gays and Lesbians, and Transgender people. In contrast, Trump supporters have far warmer feelings towards whites than supporters of other candidates. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-voters-versus-republicans_us_573b0ec0e4b060aa781b32ce

Trump's "muslim ban" is unconstitutional.

    http://time.com/4139476/donald-trump-shutdown-muslim-immigration/
    http://blogs.wsj.com/law/2015/12/08/is-trumps-proposed-ban-on-muslim-entry-constitutional/
    https://reason.com/blog/2016/03/03/donald-trump-enemy-of-the-constitution

Trump thinks that muslims should wear "special ID badges", as well as having a database tracking muslims.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2015/11/trump-crosses-the-nazi-line-maybe-muslims-should-wear-special-id-badges/
    http://edition.cnn.com/2015/11/20/opinions/obeidallah-trump-anti-muslim/

Trump lies about how "muslims celebrated 9/11".

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-911_us_565b1950e4b08e945feb7326
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2015/11/22/donald-trumps-outrageous-claim-that-thousands-of-new-jersey-muslims-celebrated-the-911-attacks/

Trump wants to racially profile to "prevent criminality".

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-trump-idUSKCN0Z50PV
    http://fortune.com/2016/06/19/trump-racial-profiling/
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jun/19/donald-trump-proposes-racial-profiling-gun-control-nra

Trump had a full-page ad promoting execution of a group of Latino and Black children, who later turned out to be innocent.

Trump continued to believe that they were somehow guilty despite the DNA test.

    http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/feb/17/central-park-five-donald-trump-jogger-rape-case-new-york
    http://www.newyorker.com/news/amy-davidson/donald-trump-and-the-central-park-five
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/325982969040879620?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

He believes that Obama was born in Kenya.

    http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2011/apr/07/donald-trump/donald-trump-says-president-obamas-grandmother-cau/
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k8TwRmX6zs4
    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/19/us/politics/donald-trump-obama-muslim.html?_r=0
    https://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/04/27/president-obamas-long-form-birth-certificate

He attacked Judge P. Curiel for his "Mexican heritage"

    http://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trump-keeps-up-attacks-on-judge-gonzalo-curiel-1464911442
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/henrymiller/2016/06/30/greenpeace-more-dishonest-and-dangerous-than-the-mafia/#18d6cc541f44
    http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2016/06/no-judge-curiel-not-biased-against-donald-trump

Anne Frank's relatives thinks that Trump is 'acting like Hitler'.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/anne-franks-step-sister-says-donald-trump-is-acting-like-hitler-a6838531.html
    http://edition.cnn.com/2016/01/27/politics/anne-frank-donald-trump-adolf-hitler/index.html

Trump was fined $200,000 in 1992 by the New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement for not allowing blacks or women onto his casino floor while a racist Mafia leader was gambling.

    http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/06/donald-trump-scandals/474726/
    http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/downashore/Trump-ties-to-mobster-racist-casino-policies-resurface-in-new-report.html

Trump kicked the only black Republican official out of an Atlanta Trump event with no explanation.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2016/06/black-georgia-gop-official-booted-from-atlanta-trump-event-with-no-explanation/



We could certainly keep adding to the list (Steve Bannon appointment, etc.), but I think that there's an evident pattern of behaviour forming already that suggests an answer of reasonable certainty to the question.

rob in cal

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Re: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« Reply #25 on: January 27, 2017, 10:17:14 AM »
   My basic rule of thumb is don't make investment/savings decisions based on who is President and who is in charge of congress etc. Just keep on trucking regardless of the media noise.

farmecologist

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Re: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« Reply #26 on: January 27, 2017, 10:19:06 AM »
We could certainly keep adding to the list (Steve Bannon appointment, etc.), but I think that there's an evident pattern of behaviour forming already that suggests an answer of reasonable certainty to the question.

Wow nice list there! Good work!

Also, just look at Trump's cabinet, etc...I think that is pretty telling as well.

But effect on the stock market?  No idea....




BTDretire

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Re: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« Reply #27 on: January 27, 2017, 11:00:37 AM »
Like the idea that Trump is racist is not rooted in any actual fact.

Get real. He spearheaded the Obama birther movement and that was at its core 100% racist.

 Cock sure of that are you?
 Why is it always racism and not a simple disagreement about policies.

Retire-Canada

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Re: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« Reply #28 on: January 27, 2017, 11:04:07 AM »
Cock sure of that are you?
 Why is it always racism and not a simple disagreement about policies.

There were no policies being discussed by birthers. Just racist conspiracy theories that's how I am sure.

bacchi

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Re: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« Reply #29 on: January 27, 2017, 01:04:22 PM »
There are people that still admit to being a birther? Wow, how embarrassing.


Trump can totally make the market take a dump. His tariffs would do it. Oh, sure, it'd be all good in the beginning, just like Smoot, but then the economy would nose dive and take the market with it.

Davids

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Re: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« Reply #30 on: January 27, 2017, 04:17:53 PM »
Are these the same pundits who thought we were heading for a major crash after Greece defaulted. That drop lasted a month. Are these the same pundits who thought the market would tank after Brexit, that lasted a few days. Are these the same pundits who thought the market would tank when Trump won the election, that lasted just overnight in the futures market.

There are always market corrections and I am sure at some point during the next 4 years of Trump's presidency we will experience them but guess what, they will all be short lived as recent history has shown so when it does happen use it as a good time to buy on the dip.

Shor

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Re: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« Reply #31 on: January 27, 2017, 04:22:43 PM »
There are people that still admit to being a birther? Wow, how embarrassing.


Trump can totally make the market take a dump. His tariffs would do it. Oh, sure, it'd be all good in the beginning, just like Smoot, but then the economy would nose dive and take the market with it.
Cough, and do tariffs just appear because the President says it aloud?

Metric Mouse

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Re: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« Reply #32 on: January 27, 2017, 11:26:14 PM »
There are people that still admit to being a birther? Wow, how embarrassing.


Trump can totally make the market take a dump. His tariffs would do it. Oh, sure, it'd be all good in the beginning, just like Smoot, but then the economy would nose dive and take the market with it.
Cough, and do tariffs just appear because the President says it aloud?
Might it happen if he tweets it at exactly midnight of a full moon?

GuitarStv

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Re: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« Reply #33 on: January 28, 2017, 06:29:39 AM »
There are people that still admit to being a birther? Wow, how embarrassing.


Trump can totally make the market take a dump. His tariffs would do it. Oh, sure, it'd be all good in the beginning, just like Smoot, but then the economy would nose dive and take the market with it.
Cough, and do tariffs just appear because the President says it aloud?
Might it happen if he tweets it at exactly midnight of a full moon?

Trump has the power to personally cancel NAFTA which would guarantee higher tariffs on a lot of goods.

Metric Mouse

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Re: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« Reply #34 on: January 28, 2017, 07:51:41 PM »
There are people that still admit to being a birther? Wow, how embarrassing.


Trump can totally make the market take a dump. His tariffs would do it. Oh, sure, it'd be all good in the beginning, just like Smoot, but then the economy would nose dive and take the market with it.
Cough, and do tariffs just appear because the President says it aloud?
Might it happen if he tweets it at exactly midnight of a full moon?

Trump has the power to personally cancel NAFTA which would guarantee higher tariffs on a lot of goods.
Meh. Call it a tax on stuff shipped around the world using fossil fuels. Might help lower carbon emissions from the junk people buy at Walmart.

mjr

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Re: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« Reply #35 on: January 28, 2017, 07:59:55 PM »
This thread is yet another oh-no-Trump-is-bad-and-racist theme trying to be relevant by asking how might it affect the stock market.

Thank heavens I'm not one of the perpetually outraged.

Lagom

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Re: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« Reply #36 on: January 28, 2017, 08:08:38 PM »
This thread is yet another oh-no-Trump-is-bad-and-racist theme trying to be relevant by asking how might it affect the stock market.

Thank heavens I'm not one of the perpetually outraged.

k

fetch321

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Re: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« Reply #37 on: January 29, 2017, 07:52:08 AM »
I think it will be a miracle if we'd make it through the trump administration without serious economic damage.  Of course who knows when, and we might continue to enjoy a boost from anticipated fiscal policy for a while but long term I really don't see this ending good.  I'm shocked that anyone would think that it would. 

However, at a loss of what to do.

Because I also think that we have a perfect storm for inflation coming up, which makes me leary of both bonds and cash.  Not sure where to hide.

tralfamadorian

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Re: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« Reply #38 on: January 29, 2017, 08:20:22 AM »
Because I also think that we have a perfect storm for inflation coming up, which makes me leary of both bonds and cash.  Not sure where to hide.

Real estate leveraged with fixed rate mortgages- your classic inflation hedge.

Personally, I aim for 50/50 in real estate and stocks.
« Last Edit: January 29, 2017, 09:42:32 AM by kellyincville »

BTDretire

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Re: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« Reply #39 on: January 29, 2017, 08:56:44 AM »
I took the liberty to update the reasons not to invest in the stock market from this PDF.
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/business/investing.pdf
Edit: Sorry looks like you need to click the link to read it.


ChpBstrd

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Re: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« Reply #40 on: January 29, 2017, 09:15:00 AM »
Trump is like the resurrection of Herbert Hoover, except more racist.

He just proposed a 20% tariff with Mexico - one of the US's main trading partners.
He's bullying companies for PR - e.g. Ford was forced to abandon a 1.6 billion factory. Their ROI will be lower as a result.
His trade appointments want to start a trade war with China - which would wipe out many US companies and lead to inflation in the price of goods. If not a US debt crisis.
His attitude toward ethnicities different than his own will eventually lead to riots and/or massacres.
His plan to expand the US national debt building a non-productive asset (the Great Wall of Mexico) could lead to a debt crisis for the US.
Repeal of Dodd Frank will reset the stage for the next bank crisis.
The combined effect of his plans scream inflation, which will cause interest rates to rise, hurting stocks.

On the bright side, for corporations, he will deregulate their businesses and lower their taxes. I think the market's "sugar high" on these factors, especially as they apply to banks, will eventually come down as the impact of tariffs and goods shortages is felt.

Might be a good time to rotate into consumer staples and companies that can raise prices with inflation.

BTDretire

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Re: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« Reply #41 on: January 29, 2017, 09:33:41 AM »
Trump is like the resurrection of Herbert Hoover, except more racist.

He just proposed a 20% tariff with Mexico - one of the US's main trading partners.
He's bullying companies for PR - e.g. Ford was forced to abandon a 1.6 billion factory. Their ROI will be lower as a result.
His trade appointments want to start a trade war with China - which would wipe out many US companies and lead to inflation in the price of goods. If not a US debt crisis.

Negotiating tactics.
Quote
His attitude toward ethnicities different than his own will eventually lead to riots and/or massacres.
His plan to expand the US national debt building a non-productive asset (the Great Wall of Mexico) could lead to a debt crisis for the US.



Repeal of Dodd Frank will reset the stage for the next bank crisis.
The combined effect of his plans scream inflation, which will cause interest rates to rise, hurting stocks.

Hyperbole!
Quote
On the bright side, for corporations, he will deregulate their businesses and lower their taxes. I think the market's "sugar high" on these factors, especially as they apply to banks, will eventually come down as the impact of tariffs and goods shortages is felt.

That "sugar high" is just equalizing our country to other countries taxes and regulations so we have a better chance to compete.
Quote
Might be a good time to rotate into consumer staples and companies that can raise prices with inflation.
  If we get the growth hoped for, we could have some inflation. Let's hope it is delicately controlled by the Fed.

tralfamadorian

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Re: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« Reply #42 on: January 29, 2017, 09:43:24 AM »
I took the liberty to update the reasons not to invest in the stock market from this PDF.

+1

GuitarStv

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Re: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« Reply #43 on: January 29, 2017, 10:03:23 AM »
There are people that still admit to being a birther? Wow, how embarrassing.


Trump can totally make the market take a dump. His tariffs would do it. Oh, sure, it'd be all good in the beginning, just like Smoot, but then the economy would nose dive and take the market with it.
Cough, and do tariffs just appear because the President says it aloud?
Might it happen if he tweets it at exactly midnight of a full moon?

Trump has the power to personally cancel NAFTA which would guarantee higher tariffs on a lot of goods.
Meh. Call it a tax on stuff shipped around the world using fossil fuels. Might help lower carbon emissions from the junk people buy at Walmart.

Whatever you want to call it.  My point was that yes, tariffs can appear just because the President says it should be so.

Livewell

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Re: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« Reply #44 on: January 29, 2017, 10:09:55 AM »
I took the liberty to update the reasons not to invest in the stock market from this PDF.
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/business/investing.pdf
Edit: Sorry looks like you need to click the link to read it.

Excellent way to look at it!

It's all about when you need the money.  If it's more than 5 years and certainly more than 10, just invest it.

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« Reply #45 on: January 29, 2017, 10:40:43 AM »

The combined effect of his plans scream inflation, which will cause interest rates to rise

And the effects of higher interest rates would be a stronger dollar vis a vis other currencies around the world. Now US manufacturers / US Farms, will have a hard time competing on the world market for their exports because of the stronger dollar. This will cause manufacturing employment to further decline -  there go all the jobs for the working class whites in the Rust Belt states who voted for Trump.

The Guru

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Re: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« Reply #46 on: January 29, 2017, 12:12:35 PM »
One thing seems sure- Trump's unpredictability, ever-changing policy stances and general DILLIGAFF attitude ought to increase market volatility. Good for $-cost averaging I guess.

Kalergie

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Re: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« Reply #47 on: January 29, 2017, 01:11:22 PM »
I took the liberty to update the reasons not to invest in the stock market from this PDF.
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/business/investing.pdf
Edit: Sorry looks like you need to click the link to read it.

This is awesome. Would love to have the same with the reasons TO invest each year.

nugget

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Re: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« Reply #48 on: January 29, 2017, 01:59:18 PM »
I took the liberty to update the reasons not to invest in the stock market from this PDF.
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/business/investing.pdf
Edit: Sorry looks like you need to click the link to read it.

that is actually really cool.

ChpBstrd

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Re: Trump's Stock ralley - hardly sustainable?
« Reply #49 on: January 29, 2017, 03:49:45 PM »
This thread is yet another oh-no-Trump-is-bad-and-racist theme trying to be relevant by asking how might it affect the stock market.

Thank heavens I'm not one of the perpetually outraged.

Where is the line for you, then? What could a government possibly do that would offend your sensibilities? Anything?