Top is in

[DaTrill]

- gulp -

Anyone cheering for a correction has never experienced a crash.     

Meh, there was a point in Feb/Mar 2020 when my portfolio balance was actually lower than my total contributions. I wouldn't say that I was cheering for a crash, but a crash wouldn't have upset me. And it still wouldn't upset me today. I've got 8+ years of investing left to do.

As long as one keeps their job, crashes are relatively helpful for FIRE plans.  But this is entirely conditional on keeping one's job which is unknown for most people.   

[DaTrill]

Probably 40/60 and staying here for a while.  Not buying the dip.  I don't make point estimates, but retesting the March 2020 lows is not out of the picture given the Fed is taking away the punchbowl that created the returns since then,

Topping off the punchbowl is in!

If that's JP spiling the punchbowl, then the top might not be in ;)

Nah, Jerome has Everclear.  Top is not in, yet!  (Edit to add - which ironically means that the top is in until the Fed reverses course, just FYI)

Yep.  All based on Fed action.  Depends on if JP does what he says or changes course. 

[DaTrill]

Fed has two mandates, maximum employment and USD stability, worrying about the stock market would make the already challenging job impossible.   

Inflation, not USD stability.

And doing a 180 degree turn in 2018 was pretty much because the stock marked tanked 20% or thereabouts. The Fed is really worried about the market.

Maybe top worry is about to set in at the Fed?

It's stability as the Fed can also prevent deflation (see March 2020 for example). 

[DaTrill]

MRNA and NFLX have also crushed. AMZN is my bet for the next crushing.  Bear markets evolve and are, even years later, difficult to pinpoint the end of the Bull and start of the Bear.  Thousands of people dedicated thousands of hours investigating the dot come bubble and GFC and there is almost no agreement on why/when they ended.  It's a long process that can take years.   

Is this the crushing?

Posted after their beat.  If I had to estimate, sometime in the next 6 months AMZN will guide lower due to slower AWS growth. 

[DaTrill]

MRNA and NFLX have also crushed. AMZN is my bet for the next crushing.  Bear markets evolve and are, even years later, difficult to pinpoint the end of the Bull and start of the Bear.  Thousands of people dedicated thousands of hours investigating the dot come bubble and GFC and there is almost no agreement on why/when they ended.  It's a long process that can take years.   

Is this the crushing?

Again, posted after their beat. 

CRUSHED

[Tyson]

My daughter, who is gay, tells me that all this talk of 'tops' and 'bottoms' has a very different set of connotations in her community...

[Malossi792]

My daughter, who is gay, tells me that all this talk of 'tops' and 'bottoms' has a very different set of connotations in her community...

Do share, please.

[dragoncar]

My daughter, who is gay, tells me that all this talk of 'tops' and 'bottoms' has a very different set of connotations in her community...

Do share, please.

During coitus, it’s common to announce an impending orgasm by shouting “top is in!”

[DadJokes]

My daughter, who is gay, tells me that all this talk of 'tops' and 'bottoms' has a very different set of connotations in her community...

Do share, please.

During coitus, it’s common to announce an impending orgasm by shouting “top is in!”

In my bedroom, tops are never in, but instead off.

[2KidFIRE]

My daughter, who is gay, tells me that all this talk of 'tops' and 'bottoms' has a very different set of connotations in her community...

Do share, please.

During coitus, it’s common to announce an impending orgasm by shouting “top is in!”

Legit laughed out loud at this one.  Bravo!

[EscapeVelocity2020]

My daughter, who is gay, tells me that all this talk of 'tops' and 'bottoms' has a very different set of connotations in her community...

Do share, please.

During coitus, it’s common to announce an impending orgasm by shouting “top is in!”

You definitely don't want to hear "bottom is in!" afterwards...

[frugalnacho]

[Wintergreen78]

My world is crumbling. Bloomberg says VIX above 15 is a buy signal, but Thorstach says it is a sell signal. Do I need to revise my trading algorithm?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-08/jpmorgan-strategists-see-sure-fire-sign-it-s-time-to-buy-stocks

[JJ-]

My world is crumbling. Bloomberg says VIX above 15 is a buy signal, but Thorstach says it is a sell signal. Do I need to revise my trading algorithm?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-08/jpmorgan-strategists-see-sure-fire-sign-it-s-time-to-buy-stocks

VIX is 5+9 in Roman so obviously if you can buy 15 at 14 that's a deal. Or wait, are you buying 14 at 15? That's obviously a sell.

Need Bloomberg and thorstach to chime in.

[ChpBstrd]

My world is crumbling. Bloomberg says VIX above 15 is a buy signal, but Thorstach says it is a sell signal. Do I need to revise my trading algorithm?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-08/jpmorgan-strategists-see-sure-fire-sign-it-s-time-to-buy-stocks

"100% accurate outside of recessions"

WAHAHAHAHAHAAHAAA!!!!

[JJ-]

My world is crumbling. Bloomberg says VIX above 15 is a buy signal, but Thorstach says it is a sell signal. Do I need to revise my trading algorithm?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-08/jpmorgan-strategists-see-sure-fire-sign-it-s-time-to-buy-stocks

"100% accurate outside of recessions"

WAHAHAHAHAHAAHAAA!!!!

Thank you for the chuckles I never get when I don't click links. That's amazing.

[Wintergreen78]

My world is crumbling. Bloomberg says VIX above 15 is a buy signal, but Thorstach says it is a sell signal. Do I need to revise my trading algorithm?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-08/jpmorgan-strategists-see-sure-fire-sign-it-s-time-to-buy-stocks

"100% accurate outside of recessions"

WAHAHAHAHAHAAHAAA!!!!

Thank you for the chuckles I never get when I don't click links. That's amazing.

60 percent of the time, it works every time.

[vand]

Uncle Biden wants to get onto the blower to the PPT pretty darn sharpish, because we could be taking out the January lows in a real hurry. Tech continuing to get smashed from pillar to post is not a good sign for the health of the bull market.

[ZaraThustra]

My world is crumbling. Bloomberg says VIX above 15 is a buy signal, but Thorstach says it is a sell signal. Do I need to revise my trading algorithm?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-08/jpmorgan-strategists-see-sure-fire-sign-it-s-time-to-buy-stocks

"100% accurate outside of recessions"

WAHAHAHAHAHAAHAAA!!!!

Thank you for the chuckles I never get when I don't click links. That's amazing.

60 percent of the time, it works every time.

It's also cranky in the rain, and doesn't "do" Mondays.

[vand]

The Decennial stock pattern suggests that it's probably time to play defense for the next couple of years

[EscapeVelocity2020]

The Decennial stock pattern suggests that it's probably time to play defense for the next couple of years

So 2008 would've been a good year to go 'all in' eh?

[ChpBstrd]

The Decennial stock pattern suggests that it's probably time to play defense for the next couple of years

So 2008 would've been a good year to go 'all in' eh?

YES, that would be a buy signal because by then the market would have built up a nice cushion so that even in the worst case scenario it would probably only lose 8 years of gains.

[Wintergreen78]

The Decennial stock pattern suggests that it's probably time to play defense for the next couple of years

So 2008 would've been a good year to go 'all in' eh?

YES, that would be a buy signal because by then the market would have built up a nice cushion so that even in the worst case scenario it would probably only lose 8 years of gains.

Sorry, I record my dates in hexadecimal, so the stock market is on a 16 year cycle for me. I seek everything in any year that ends in b, then buy it back when the year ends in d.

I’ve got charts and stuff to back up my system.

[PDXTabs]

Sorry, I record my dates in hexadecimal, so the stock market is on a 16 year cycle for me. I seek everything in any year that ends in b, then buy it back when the year ends in d.

I’ve got charts and stuff to back up my system.

Really? I always use octal.

[Wintergreen78]

Sorry, I record my dates in hexadecimal, so the stock market is on a 16 year cycle for me. I seek everything in any year that ends in b, then buy it back when the year ends in d.

I’ve got charts and stuff to back up my system.

Really? I always use octal.

Trading every eight years?

You should really be careful with that. Excessive trading has been shown to reduce performance.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

The Decennial stock pattern suggests that it's probably time to play defense for the next couple of years

So 2008 would've been a good year to go 'all in' eh?

YES, that would be a buy signal because by then the market would have built up a nice cushion so that even in the worst case scenario it would probably only lose 8 years of gains.

If I lose two years worth of gains, the S&P was at 3300 headed to 2300...  Losing eight years worth of gains would be like when the crude oil price went negative - I'd have to pay someone to hold on the my index funds for me - S&P being a positive number is in!

[DaTrill]

All about the FED; QE/QT and rates.  QE ends, QT starts and rates increase, top is 100% in.  If QE continues and rates stay low, top is not in.  JP said the punch bowl is being drained and if he wants to keep some credibility, it will probably happen soon.  If not, party on until the shelves are bare, but everyone is a paper billionaire.   

[PDXTabs]

If not, party on until the shelves are bare, but everyone is a paper billionaire.   

I'm going to make a paper hat out of hundred dollar bills.

[vand]

The 3 most important stocks for the market are AAPL, MSFT & AMZN.

As the unprofitable and questionable dross amongst the wider market crumbles, investors "flee" into these bellweather stocks, which continue to hold up the indexes.  If and when these pillars are taken out then the market as a whole is in big trouble.

Key levels are:

AAPL: $155
Apple is the strongest of the 3, still in a well defined uptrend, and upward sloping 233dma and 55dma

MSFT: $275
Microsoft is in the middle, it is flirting with its 233dma, while the 55dma is now downward sloping

AMZN: $2700
Amazon is the weakest, having spend last year going sideways. The 55dma has already crossed below the 233dma and both are now being pulled down by the price action. This looks likely to be the first stock to fall below key support and trigger the next leg down.

[Phenix]

Please save all analysis for thorstach.  The rest of this thread space is devoted to memes and hyperbole.

[Glenstache]

AMZN: $2700
Amazon is the weakest, having spend last year going sideways. The 55dma has already crossed below the 233dma and both are now being pulled down by the price action. This looks likely to be the first stock to fall below key support and trigger the next leg down.

Fear is rampant. Top is clearly in.

[vand]

Please save all analysis for thorstache.  The rest of this thread space is devoted to memes and hyperbole.

I reserve my hyperbole for when people around me are running for the fire escape.

[Tyson]

Please save all analysis for thorstache.  The rest of this thread space is devoted to memes and hyperbole.

I reserve my hyperbole for when people around me are running for the fire escape.

WHAT IF THERE ARE NO FIRE ESCAPES?????!!!!!!!!!

[GuitarStv]

Please save all analysis for thorstache.  The rest of this thread space is devoted to memes and hyperbole.

I reserve my hyperbole for when people around me are running for the fire escape.

WHAT IF THERE ARE NO FIRE ESCAPES?????!!!!!!!!!

If there's a window and your foot, there's a fire escape.

[DaTrill]

One can sell, this is the beauty of equity investing.  Still hopeful for a rally and return to the top but prepared otherwise.  Retail or Algos may really cause issues in the market.  Low volume on big selloffs is usually associated with bigger selloffs.  Retail still buying and no idea what Algos are doing.     

[Monocle Money Mouth]

I think the S&P 500 is officially at a correction. Let the knife catching begin.

🔪
🙌

[PDXTabs]

I think the S&P 500 is officially at a correction.

Yup. Too bad that I won't buy more until 10 days from now.

[Glenstache]

I think the S&P 500 is officially at a correction.

Yup. Too bad that I won't buy more until 10 days from now.

Total bloodbath.

[ChpBstrd]

I think the S&P 500 is officially at a correction. Let the knife catching begin.

🔪
🙌

But what if I was the one who dropped the knife in the first place?

[dandarc]

I think the S&P 500 is officially at a correction. Let the knife catching begin.

🔪
🙌

But what if I was the one who dropped the knife in the first place?

Should make it easier to catch, no?

[JAYSLOL]

I think the S&P 500 is officially at a correction. Let the knife catching begin.

🔪
🙌

But what if I was the one who dropped the knife in the first place?

Should make it easier to catch, no?

Also makes it easier to get stabbed in the foot

[secondcor521]

I think the S&P 500 is officially at a correction. Let the knife catching begin.

🔪
🙌

But what if I was the one who dropped the knife in the first place?

Should make it easier to catch, no?

Also makes it easier to get stabbed in the foot

Well that's catching it in a way, now, isn't it?  Technically speaking.

[JAYSLOL]

I think the S&P 500 is officially at a correction. Let the knife catching begin.

🔪
🙌

But what if I was the one who dropped the knife in the first place?

Should make it easier to catch, no?

Also makes it easier to get stabbed in the foot

Well that's catching it in a way, now, isn't it?  Technically speaking.

Sure, technicality Top is in

[Glenstache]

If a lone stock crashes on the the market and nobody yellsn was the top really in?

[clifp]

I don't know if hit the top and we are on the way down, or this is just a garden variety correction, and we will see new highs in a month or two.

I do know we are nowhere near the bottom, because near the bottom, almost no one is joking, and a lot of people are freaking out.

[dragoncar]

I think the S&P 500 is officially at a correction. Let the knife catching begin.

🔪
🙌

But what if I was the one who dropped the knife in the first place?

Should make it easier to catch, no?

Also makes it easier to get stabbed in the foot

Especially when wearing wicker shoes

[Monocle Money Mouth]

I don't know if hit the top and we are on the way down, or this is just a garden variety correction, and we will see new highs in a month or two.

I do know we are nowhere near the bottom, because near the bottom, almost no one is joking, and a lot of people are freaking out.

If this is anything like February/March of 2020, we'll start seeing people that never post start posting about cashing out and how they knew this was going to happen. Some people feel compelled to do something during a correction to feel in control even if it doesn't actually help in the long run. I'm cool with a correction whether we get back to new highs in a month or it stays down for a few more months. I'm going to keep buying like I normally do, enjoy the discount, wait until things recover, then enjoy my larger investment account balances.

Either way, the top is in.

[vand]

I don't know if hit the top and we are on the way down, or this is just a garden variety correction, and we will see new highs in a month or two.

I do know we are nowhere near the bottom, because near the bottom, almost no one is joking, and a lot of people are freaking out.

If this is anything like February/March of 2020, we'll start seeing people that never post start posting about cashing out and how they knew this was going to happen. Some people feel compelled to do something during a correction to feel in control even if it doesn't actually help in the long run. I'm cool with a correction whether we get back to new highs in a month or it stays down for a few more months. I'm going to keep buying like I normally do, enjoy the discount, wait until things recover, then enjoy my larger investment account balances.

Either way, the top is in.

It's nothing like March 2020, which was a short term reaction ot a coordinated global emergency.  It couldn't be more different, imo.

Current action is more like the sort of patterns that we have seen at major market turning points where there is a genuine topping process played out over a year or more, as the market sells off, rallies, confuses both bulls and bears, before ultimately entering a well defined downtrend.

If you go back and look at the market over 2007, 2000, 1973, 1966.. those tops all play out over that sort of time frame.

My own feeling is that stock market sentiment, while it taken a bit of a dent in recent weeks, is still very high. Most people are still expecting forward returns to be above historical average despite all the evidence pointing towards the opposite.  It takes a few years of lousy performance to unwind that sort of exuberance., not just a couple of months.

[JoePublic3.14]

I think the S&P 500 is officially at a correction. Let the knife catching begin.

🔪
🙌

But what if I was the one who dropped the knife in the first place?

Should make it easier to catch, no?

Also makes it easier to get stabbed in the foot

Especially when wearing wicker shoes

Carrot top must be in?

[Wintergreen78]

I don't know if hit the top and we are on the way down, or this is just a garden variety correction, and we will see new highs in a month or two.

I do know we are nowhere near the bottom, because near the bottom, almost no one is joking, and a lot of people are freaking out.

If this is anything like February/March of 2020, we'll start seeing people that never post start posting about cashing out and how they knew this was going to happen. Some people feel compelled to do something during a correction to feel in control even if it doesn't actually help in the long run. I'm cool with a correction whether we get back to new highs in a month or it stays down for a few more months. I'm going to keep buying like I normally do, enjoy the discount, wait until things recover, then enjoy my larger investment account balances.

Either way, the top is in.

It's nothing like March 2020, which was a short term reaction ot a coordinated global emergency.  It couldn't be more different, imo.

Current action is more like the sort of patterns that we have seen at major market turning points where there is a genuine topping process played out over a year or more, as the market sells off, rallies, confuses both bulls and bears, before ultimately entering a well defined downtrend.

If you go back and look at the market over 2007, 2000, 1973, 1966.. those tops all play out over that sort of time frame.

My own feeling is that stock market sentiment, while it taken a bit of a dent in recent weeks, is still very high. Most people are still expecting forward returns to be above historical average despite all the evidence pointing towards the opposite.  It takes a few years of lousy performance to unwind that sort of exuberance., not just a couple of months.

So you are saying that the top is in?

Because patterns and feelings?