Top is in

[Dibbels81]

Top is in. Stagflation is in.

WOW this is the "Top is in" version of the Portals scene in The Avengers. Things are looking hopeless, but out of nowhere Captain Thorstach pops in and assures us that everything is going to be OK

[Phenix]

Top is in. Stagflation is in.

WOW this is the "Top is in" version of the Portals scene in The Avengers. Things are looking hopeless, but out of nowhere Captain Thorstach pops in and assures us that everything is going to be OK

On your left.

[habanero]

One of the large market makers reporting that yesterday, for the first time in a long time, retail option flow was net selling on a "big" down day (>1% drop).

Top option buying is in.

[vand]

Trying to make a serious case for the Top being in.. and then thorstach pops up to derail everything, FFS.

[2Birds1Stone]

Looks like our broken clock was right!

[JJ-]

Trying to make a serious case for the Top being in.. and then thorstach pops up to derail everything, FFS.

I'm having serious internal consternation between trying to follow logic or follow the bandwagon. I've just given up, AGAIN.

[Scandium]

I think bonds work better than bond funds as shock absorbers -- because you don't have to sell the bonds, you can just collect the interest.

Collect the what now? :S

https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us

[EscapeVelocity2020]

I think bonds work better than bond funds as shock absorbers -- because you don't have to sell the bonds, you can just collect the interest.

Collect the what now? :S

https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us

You know, collect the nominal pennies which cost you real dollars!  Shock absorbed!!

[2Birds1Stone]

We saw higher Nasdaq nearly a year ago, and that was before 7% inflation.......

[ChpBstrd]

We saw higher Nasdaq nearly a year ago, and that was before 7% inflation.......

But if the dollars are worth 7% less, then the shares should be worth 7% more, right? Need Thorsatch to weigh in on the question of how both dollars and things bought with dollars can both depreciate.

[thorstach]

We saw higher Nasdaq nearly a year ago, and that was before 7% inflation.......

But if the dollars are worth 7% less, then the shares should be worth 7% more, right? Need Thorsatch to weigh in on the question of how both dollars and things bought with dollars can both depreciate.

Stagflation is in.

[DaTrill]

I've almost completely de-teched and went from 98/2 for most of the last 5 years to around 50/50, almost no tech. 

[SwordGuy]

I think bonds work better than bond funds as shock absorbers -- because you don't have to sell the bonds, you can just collect the interest.

Collect the what now? :S

https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us

Don't individual bonds run for a specified period of time?   Which means when a recession hits you're entering it with bonds you already bought at -- presumably -- a decent interest rate.  Otherwise, why buy them in the first place?

[blue_green_sparks]

Some of my 'innovator' buffered index funds will absorb the first 9% of a dip down from my purchase price at the expense of an earnings cap of 13.5%. Others will buffer -5 to -35% dips with a clamp of 7% on earnings. You can compress outcomes with options yourself of course and save the fee.

[vand]

Individual bonds are no safer than bond funds! The only difference is that with a fund you can see the market price! I guarantee that if you try to sell your individual bond you're not going to be able to redeem it at face value and will have to accept the market price.

The only other difference is that bond funds are continually renewing their holdings as old holdings mature and they buy new issues to replace them, so the fund itself never reaches maturity, it just offers the yield of the sum of its holdings at that point in time.

[dougules]

Other retired folks be like:



And come back replying to posts that are pretty old

Does @thorstach work for the Wall Street Journal now? And is his name Karen?

We've just assumed thorstach was a "he" about thorstach this whole time, and we were wrong.  How misogynistic of us. 

Today's reversal does not bode well for the rest of this year imo.

I don't know how many people still remember the GFC and how that unfoldered, but I do quite vividly. I remember January 2008 very well... there was one particular session where the market just dropped over 5% having felt very skittish all month.   I remember that day very well and thinking to myself "we're in real trouble here" after market closed.   

I'm getting the similar sort of vibes today.  The market is already deeply oversold and set up for a good rally. If today's bounce has been completely faded then it I think we could be headed for some real trouble again.

Yes, the world ended in 2008.  It's been pretty tough living amongst the rubble from the end of the world since then.   

[Scandium]

Some of my 'innovator' buffered index funds will absorb the first 9% of a dip down from my purchase price at the expense of an earnings cap of 13.5%. Others will buffer -5 to -35% dips with a clamp of 7% on earnings. You can compress outcomes with options yourself of course and save the fee.

I don't really understand this, but if it drops 10%  then recover you will sell out at the bottom?

Edit: reread, and I misunderstood. The fund cover drops up to 9%? I see. Seems like something they wouldn't offer unless they gain from it long term, but ok..

[SwordGuy]

Individual bonds are no safer than bond funds! The only difference is that with a fund you can see the market price! I guarantee that if you try to sell your individual bond you're not going to be able to redeem it at face value and will have to accept the market price.

The only other difference is that bond funds are continually renewing their holdings as old holdings mature and they buy new issues to replace them, so the fund itself never reaches maturity, it just offers the yield of the sum of its holdings at that point in time.

I disagree for two reasons:

1) I sell when **I** want to sell.  In a bond fund, really good bonds may end up getting sold to cover cash requirements from other fund investors who panic and sell.   That's a major difference.

2) Until I sell (or it matures) I can collect the interest on the bond, which is income that does not deplete my stash.   And if the bond matures, they have to pay me the full face value of the bond, not the lower market price you mentioned.  That full face value amount can be used to purchase equities while they are low, for example.

The only upside I see from holding a bond fund instead of individual bonds is it provides protection against companies going bankrupt via diversification.

[PDXTabs]

Individual bonds are no safer than bond funds! The only difference is that with a fund you can see the market price! I guarantee that if you try to sell your individual bond you're not going to be able to redeem it at face value and will have to accept the market price.

The only other difference is that bond funds are continually renewing their holdings as old holdings mature and they buy new issues to replace them, so the fund itself never reaches maturity, it just offers the yield of the sum of its holdings at that point in time.

I disagree for two reasons:

1) I sell when **I** want to sell.  In a bond fund, really good bonds may end up getting sold to cover cash requirements from other fund investors who panic and sell.   That's a major difference.

I agree, and I would add that the opposite happens too. The fund holds bonds that will mature and they will be forced to buy new bonds at whatever the market price is. You can pick and choose when to buy/sell bonds. You can say "these prices are too high I won't buy any bonds right now."

[PDXTabs]

Today's reversal does not bode well for the rest of this year imo.

I don't know how many people still remember the GFC and how that unfoldered, but I do quite vividly. I remember January 2008 very well... there was one particular session where the market just dropped over 5% having felt very skittish all month.   I remember that day very well and thinking to myself "we're in real trouble here" after market closed.   

I'm getting the similar sort of vibes today.  The market is already deeply oversold and set up for a good rally. If today's bounce has been completely faded then it I think we could be headed for some real trouble again.

Yes, the world ended in 2008.  It's been pretty tough living amongst the rubble from the end of the world since then.

Right? Another 2008 is my accumulator wet dream.

[Edubb20]

My top is off.

Did I do it right?

[EscapeVelocity2020]

My top is off.

Did I do it right?

Only if you lost your shirt.  Ba dum bum...

[blue_green_sparks]

Some of my 'innovator' buffered index funds will absorb the first 9% of a dip down from my purchase price at the expense of an earnings cap of 13.5%. Others will buffer -5 to -35% dips with a clamp of 7% on earnings. You can compress outcomes with options yourself of course and save the fee.

I don't really understand this, but if it drops 10%  then recover you will sell out at the bottom?

Edit: reread, and I misunderstood. The fund cover drops up to 9%? I see. Seems like something they wouldn't offer unless they gain from it long term, but ok..

Yeah, the ETF fee which is 0.79%. I don't need to net a whole lot at my age, and I don't have decades of catch-up time should the SHTF either. Innovator has a nice site and some YT videos. They offer funds that track the SP500, NASDAQ and several others at three different buffer levels and different durations.

[PDXTabs]

Bloomberg: Jeremy Grantham Doubles Down on Crash Call, Says Selloff Has Started. He says that we will see SP-500 @ 2500. I wouldn't hold my breath.

[dividendman]

Bloomberg: Jeremy Grantham Doubles Down on Crash Call, Says Selloff Has Started. He says that we will see SP-500 @ 2500. I wouldn't hold my breath.

That's not even a 50% downswing. Bottom is in.

[Wintergreen78]

Bloomberg: Jeremy Grantham Doubles Down on Crash Call, Says Selloff Has Started. He says that we will see SP-500 @ 2500. I wouldn't hold my breath.

That's not even a 50% downswing. Bottom is in.

I called SP-500 @ 1600 on the last page. Grant ham needs to be more aggressive in his bottom call if he wants to get any attention.

My computer auto-corrected his name, and I’m not going to fix it.

[BigMoneyJim]

He says that we will see SP-500 @ 2500.

OMG, that's takes us back like THREE WHOLE YEARS.

And we will surely never recover.

[JJ-]

Also useful.

https://old.reddit.com/r/Shibainucoin/comments/sa442z/when_the_market_crashes/

That made me laugh way more than it should have

[zolotiyeruki]

Also useful.

https://old.reddit.com/r/Shibainucoin/comments/sa442z/when_the_market_crashes/

That made me laugh way more than it should have

+1.  Rowan Atkinson is awesome, and the various labels in that clip are awesome.

[vand]

I’d like to state for the record that the top will be in sometime around the end of December or the beginning of January.

Reason: My husband quits his job at the end of December.

Track record: I predicted on this thread that the top would be in around when I quit my job on 13 March 2020. You can all bask in the accuracy of my last prediction.

Give that man a lollipop

(sorry, looks like it may not be a "he")

[EscapeVelocity2020]

Made it to 4500, sold everything… Top has finally arrived.  Congrats to all the diamond hands that made it…

I hope not.. I just bought a brand new SUV last week.. I want to make back what I spent on it or now my NW will actually decrease!

Wealthy people problems..:)

Somewhere on this planet, Thorstach is giving Jerome Powell a high five and nodding to the market knowingly...  it's only the Top when you say it's the Top Jerome...  let's see if we have 5000 in us, eh?

Those were the days.  Still sitting this one out until Thorstache starts his Bottom is In thread :)

[dividendman]

Made it to 4500, sold everything… Top has finally arrived.  Congrats to all the diamond hands that made it…

I hope not.. I just bought a brand new SUV last week.. I want to make back what I spent on it or now my NW will actually decrease!

Wealthy people problems..:)

Somewhere on this planet, Thorstach is giving Jerome Powell a high five and nodding to the market knowingly...  it's only the Top when you say it's the Top Jerome...  let's see if we have 5000 in us, eh?

Those were the days.  Still sitting this one out until Thorstache starts his Bottom is In thread :)

There's already a Bottom is in thread: https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/bottom-is-in/150/?topicseen

[EscapeVelocity2020]

Made it to 4500, sold everything… Top has finally arrived.  Congrats to all the diamond hands that made it…

I hope not.. I just bought a brand new SUV last week.. I want to make back what I spent on it or now my NW will actually decrease!

Wealthy people problems..:)

Somewhere on this planet, Thorstach is giving Jerome Powell a high five and nodding to the market knowingly...  it's only the Top when you say it's the Top Jerome...  let's see if we have 5000 in us, eh?

Those were the days.  Still sitting this one out until Thorstache starts his Bottom is In thread :)

There's already a Bottom is in thread: https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/bottom-is-in/150/?topicseen

But it does not have the Thorstache TM seal of approval

[ysette9]

I’d like to state for the record that the top will be in sometime around the end of December or the beginning of January.

Reason: My husband quits his job at the end of December.

Track record: I predicted on this thread that the top would be in around when I quit my job on 13 March 2020. You can all bask in the accuracy of my last prediction.

Give that man a lollipop

(sorry, looks like it may not be a "he")

Indeed, I am a she.

Called it once but clearly I flubbed it the second time. My vanguard balance is happy though.

[Glenstache]

I’d like to state for the record that the top will be in sometime around the end of December or the beginning of January.

Reason: My husband quits his job at the end of December.

Track record: I predicted on this thread that the top would be in around when I quit my job on 13 March 2020. You can all bask in the accuracy of my last prediction.

You husband and I were apparently collaborating. My last week of full time work ended on January 16th. I couldn't have timed it better to catch the top.

Was Adam Smith's invisible hand just Thorstache all along?

[solon]

 - gulp -

[Adventine]

Top is in. Stagflation is in.

HE LIVES

AHHH! CELEBRITY SIGHTING!

[DaTrill]

- gulp -

Anyone cheering for a correction has never experienced a crash.     

[PDXTabs]

- gulp -

Anyone cheering for a correction has never experienced a crash.     

I lived through the tech bubble popping (lost my tech job over it) and the GFC, but I was only invested for the GFC. My biggest regret is not buying more when it was on sale.

[Edubb20]

- gulp -

Anyone cheering for a correction has never experienced a crash.     

I lived through the tech bubble popping (lost my tech job over it) and the GFC, but I was only invested for the GFC. My biggest regret is not buying more when it was on sale.

Is the age on your profile correct, 38? You'd have been 16 during the .com crash?

[PDXTabs]

- gulp -

Anyone cheering for a correction has never experienced a crash.     

I lived through the tech bubble popping (lost my tech job over it) and the GFC, but I was only invested for the GFC. My biggest regret is not buying more when it was on sale.

Is the age on your profile correct, 38? You'd have been 16 during the .com crash?

Yup, got hired at a certain publicly traded software company that you would know the name of in the QA department. But it's not like they just laid us all off when the NASDAQ topped in March 2000. I managed to stay employed for almost three years (total) before going to school full time and breaking back into the industry.

[scottish]

- gulp -

Anyone cheering for a correction has never experienced a crash.     

Lemme see.   There was the '87 crash, then the tech crash in 2000, then the GFC crash in 2008 and I suppose you could include the covid thing in March 2020.   I think there was something in the first half of the 90's too, can't remember what though.

We're overdue for a correction.   Corrections reduce the risk of crashes.   Everything's good.

[Glenstache]

Blood in the streets!

[Roks]

- gulp -

Anyone cheering for a correction has never experienced a crash.     

Lemme see.   There was the '87 crash, then the tech crash in 2000, then the GFC crash in 2008 and I suppose you could include the covid thing in March 2020.   I think there was something in the first half of the 90's too, can't remember what though.

We're overdue for a correction.   Corrections reduce the risk of crashes.   Everything's good.

Anyone living in earthquake territory knows that it's better to have smaller earthquakes that relieve tension than the "big one."

[SwordGuy]

Lemme see.   There was the '87 crash, then the tech crash in 2000, then the GFC crash in 2008 and I suppose you could include the covid thing in March 2020.   I think there was something in the first half of the 90's too, can't remember what though.

We're overdue for a correction.   Corrections reduce the risk of crashes.   Everything's good.

(The S&P 500 shows about a 10% correction in 1990.)

[secondcor521]

Lemme see.   There was the '87 crash, then the tech crash in 2000, then the GFC crash in 2008 and I suppose you could include the covid thing in March 2020.   I think there was something in the first half of the 90's too, can't remember what though.

We're overdue for a correction.   Corrections reduce the risk of crashes.   Everything's good.

(The S&P 500 shows about a 10% correction in 1990.)

There have been a number of near corrections over the past 5 years.  Everyone gets to decide for themselves whether "closeness counts", or if that's just for horseshoes and hand grenades.

[Glenstache]

I suggest that all posts mentioning "correction" should also have to have the little "Last Edit: .." indicator just for good measure.

[DaTrill]

- gulp -

Anyone cheering for a correction has never experienced a crash.     

I lived through the tech bubble popping (lost my tech job over it) and the GFC, but I was only invested for the GFC. My biggest regret is not buying more when it was on sale.

Is the age on your profile correct, 38? You'd have been 16 during the .com crash?

Yup, got hired at a certain publicly traded software company that you would know the name of in the QA department. But it's not like they just laid us all off when the NASDAQ topped in March 2000. I managed to stay employed for almost three years (total) before going to school full time and breaking back into the industry.

Same here.  My stock options from 2000 from a well-respected fortune 100 company just went in the money in 2018, but dipped again, to give an example how long it can take for a household name to recoup from market tops.  If one keeps their job, crashes are great as you can buy cheap stocks, but millions get laid off when the easy stock money goes away.  If one is sure they won't get canned, then cheer for corrections/crashes.  Everyone else should be cautious when these appear.  I also went back to school after stock plummet caused job losses, but completely changed industries.       

I can only share my opinion, but this feels lie the precursor to a crash and the Fed is out of bullets.  Control burns are also good for the forest, but not when it's 100F, windy, dry in the middle of the summer.

Bounce today was most likely a short cover rally and margin call capital making in into the market.  These two "buyers" are short lived, and prices almost always rip below the previous days low.  Magin calls are extremely dangerous once they begin as most small investors have no buffer and only way out is to sell.  Hope I'm wrong and still long enough to enjoy the market if it recovers but covering my downside more than I have in years.               

[scottish]

You know what'll cause a crash?    Russia invades the Ukraine and/or China invades Taiwan.   Otherwise we're in good shape.

[PDXTabs]

If one keeps their job, crashes are great as you can buy cheap stocks, but millions get laid off when the easy stock money goes away.  If one is sure they won't get canned, then cheer for corrections/crashes.  Everyone else should be cautious when these appear.  I also went back to school after stock plummet caused job losses, but completely changed industries.       

But many people believe that the stock market is a forward looking indicator of future profits which may lead the real economy by six months. In that sense it's just the fuel gauge. It isn't the fuel gauge's fault when you run out of gas. I'm not going to get angry at the fuel gauge, and I'm not going to get afraid either. I choose to look on the bright side. Also, every last qualified engineer that I knew was able to find a job in the .com crash. It was all the other unqualified people I knew (like me) who I knew to really struggled.

I can only share my opinion, but this feels lie the precursor to a crash and the Fed is out of bullets.  Control burns are also good for the forest, but not when it's 100F, windy, dry in the middle of the summer.         

Well, that depends on what they prioritize. If they choose to prioritize the stock market they can always run another round of QE and buy some more junk bonds.