Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 2204455 times)

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8550 on: November 05, 2021, 12:04:39 PM »
Did you know bogleheads has their own Top is In thread? It’s called “US Stocks in Freefall” and it started in August 2011 when the DJIA fell 5.6% and the S&P500 fell 6.7% after the U.S. lost its AAA credit rating. People were freaked. Google August 8, 2011 stock market to read some cool articles in the nice clean and fast-loading website formats of yesteryear. For the S&P500, that was 296% ago.

The moral of the story is: bogleheads were wrong about the top (some I’m sure sat in CDs since 2011) and thorsach has a much better track record.

We can only mention Bogleheads if we are knowingly superior…. Because they have missed out on more gains by calling the Top earlier, our Top is in thread is but a pale shadow in their glory.  I might have to use them as an indicator for my next bubble…

GuitarStv

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8551 on: November 05, 2021, 12:23:31 PM »
US Premarkets are up .   Which guarantees that the market will close UP, DOWN or the SAME.

Long live the TOP!


If you really want the top to be in, you would hope that markets close UP, UP, DOWN, DOWN, LEFT, RIGHT, LEFT, RIGHT, B, A, START.

Aw come on you forgot SELECT

I think it was game dependent whether or not you needed select.  Definitely remember not putting it in and having it work.

aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8552 on: November 05, 2021, 03:31:49 PM »
US Premarkets are up .   Which guarantees that the market will close UP, DOWN or the SAME.

How can I subscribe to your newsletter to get more predictions like this one?

No need for a news letter, TOP is in!

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8553 on: November 05, 2021, 05:44:54 PM »
The is Top is in, 100%!  Today the S&P 500 briefly touched a 100% price increase over its price on April 11, 2017.  The Top went up 100%, and now that the Top is in, we get to watch it go down 100%. 

Fomerly known as something

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8554 on: November 06, 2021, 06:13:52 AM »
Did you know bogleheads has their own Top is In thread? It’s called “US Stocks in Freefall” and it started in August 2011 when the DJIA fell 5.6% and the S&P500 fell 6.7% after the U.S. lost its AAA credit rating. People were freaked. Google August 8, 2011 stock market to read some cool articles in the nice clean and fast-loading website formats of yesteryear. For the S&P500, that was 296% ago.

The moral of the story is: bogleheads were wrong about the top (some I’m sure sat in CDs since 2011) and thorsach has a much better track record.

Ah, I remember the 2011 top.  I did let some coworkers talk me into it, but I hedged my bets and only went to 50% bond vs their 100%.  I know better now thank fuck.

zolotiyeruki

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8555 on: November 07, 2021, 10:48:01 AM »
US Premarkets are up .   Which guarantees that the market will close UP, DOWN or the SAME.

Long live the TOP!


If you really want the top to be in, you would hope that markets close UP, UP, DOWN, DOWN, LEFT, RIGHT, LEFT, RIGHT, B, A, START.

Aw come on you forgot SELECT

I think it was game dependent whether or not you needed select.  Definitely remember not putting it in and having it work.
I believe the SELECT was for switching from a single-player game to a two-player game in Contra, and START actually started the game, so it wasn't actually part of the Konami code.

GuitarStv

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8556 on: November 07, 2021, 11:26:10 AM »
US Premarkets are up .   Which guarantees that the market will close UP, DOWN or the SAME.

Long live the TOP!


If you really want the top to be in, you would hope that markets close UP, UP, DOWN, DOWN, LEFT, RIGHT, LEFT, RIGHT, B, A, START.

Aw come on you forgot SELECT

I think it was game dependent whether or not you needed select.  Definitely remember not putting it in and having it work.
I believe the SELECT was for switching from a single-player game to a two-player game in Contra, and START actually started the game, so it wasn't actually part of the Konami code.

That explains it.  I had no friends, and Contra was unplayable without that damned code.  :P

aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8557 on: November 08, 2021, 06:46:13 AM »
Premarkets are up again this morning so once again the market will close; up, down, or the same. 


 















« Last Edit: November 08, 2021, 06:50:36 AM by aboatguy »

dandarc

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8558 on: November 08, 2021, 02:08:19 PM »
Doesn't look like it hit the prior intra-day record, but a record high close for S&P 500 today. Broke a record, but not THE record. Clearly that can only mean one thing - the top is in!

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8559 on: November 08, 2021, 02:42:04 PM »
I don’t market time (anymore) but I’m starting to get nervous again.  Mentally preparing for a large pullback .  Because top is in

aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8560 on: November 08, 2021, 02:46:58 PM »
As previously mentioned S&P500, DOW and NASDAQ set closing records.\\





I wonder how the market will stick the landing!
« Last Edit: November 08, 2021, 02:57:55 PM by aboatguy »

PDXTabs

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8561 on: November 08, 2021, 02:50:51 PM »
I don’t market time (anymore) but I’m starting to get nervous again.  Mentally preparing for a large pullback .  Because top is in

A large pullback would make me very happy. I'm not sure if we will see one.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8562 on: November 08, 2021, 06:03:37 PM »
I don’t market time (anymore) but I’m starting to get nervous again.  Mentally preparing for a large pullback .  Because top is in

A large pullback would make me very happy. I'm not sure if we will see one.

I hope I’m happy and you are sad

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8563 on: November 08, 2021, 11:16:17 PM »
Why did my Bitcoin not double in value today?  Crypto Top is In!

Calling the Top in this thread apparently also works for other asset classes...  praise be to Thorstache!

Etherium and Litecoin tops are also in???

salt cured

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8564 on: November 09, 2021, 06:47:45 AM »
Thanks for creating this topic. I've been looking at Montreal as a FIRE destination, but QC sounds pretty attractive. I've visited a few times, but I didn't realize how affordable it is.

I lived in a suburb of Sherbrooke while a university student, and while I existed (subsisted) within a bubble for those years, I did really enjoy my time in Quebec. In my experience traveling Canada, only Newfoundland surpasses it in terms of vibe.

frugalnacho

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8565 on: November 09, 2021, 06:59:23 AM »
Replying to the wrong thread top is in

salt cured

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8566 on: November 09, 2021, 08:25:40 AM »
Obviously the top has left me delirious.

aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8567 on: November 09, 2021, 09:57:15 AM »
SP500, DOW and NASDAQ are down.  TOP was in. 

 
« Last Edit: November 09, 2021, 10:01:11 AM by aboatguy »

Adventine

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8568 on: November 09, 2021, 10:43:43 AM »
As previously mentioned S&P500, DOW and NASDAQ set closing records.\\





I wonder how the market will stick the landing!
This is going to be me soon. Going to make my first US stock purchase in the next couple of days!!!

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8569 on: November 09, 2021, 02:21:47 PM »
Did you know bogleheads has their own Top is In thread? It’s called “US Stocks in Freefall” and it started in August 2011 when the DJIA fell 5.6% and the S&P500 fell 6.7% after the U.S. lost its AAA credit rating. People were freaked. Google August 8, 2011 stock market to read some cool articles in the nice clean and fast-loading website formats of yesteryear. For the S&P500, that was 296% ago.

The moral of the story is: bogleheads were wrong about the top (some I’m sure sat in CDs since 2011) and thorsach has a much better track record.

We can only mention Bogleheads if we are knowingly superior…. Because they have missed out on more gains by calling the Top earlier, our Top is in thread is but a pale shadow in their glory.  I might have to use them as an indicator for my next bubble…

That thread is total lameness.  Ours is absolutely superior.   How can you convey how dire the situation is without  memes and dad jokes?

aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8570 on: November 09, 2021, 08:05:39 PM »
Premarkets are down...





dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8571 on: November 09, 2021, 09:36:18 PM »
Premarkets are down...



Does Bogleheads have this caliber of content?  No!  Case closed. 

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8572 on: November 09, 2021, 09:37:34 PM »
Premarkets are down...



I felt the need to quote this again so I can see THREE Spongebobs frantically running around  on my screen.

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8573 on: November 09, 2021, 09:39:10 PM »
Premarkets are down...



I felt the need to quote this again so I can see THREE Spongebobs frantically running around  on my screen.

It truly is mesmerizing.  Suck it, Bogleheads. 

JJ-

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8574 on: November 09, 2021, 09:45:02 PM »
This is amazing. The top should be in all the time for this quality of content. Oh wait!!

aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8575 on: November 10, 2021, 07:42:33 AM »
NYSE opened down.  Will the bottom ever come in?  Top was in.


talltexan

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8576 on: November 10, 2021, 12:10:59 PM »
Did you know bogleheads has their own Top is In thread? It’s called “US Stocks in Freefall” and it started in August 2011 when the DJIA fell 5.6% and the S&P500 fell 6.7% after the U.S. lost its AAA credit rating. People were freaked. Google August 8, 2011 stock market to read some cool articles in the nice clean and fast-loading website formats of yesteryear. For the S&P500, that was 296% ago.

The moral of the story is: bogleheads were wrong about the top (some I’m sure sat in CDs since 2011) and thorsach has a much better track record.

We can only mention Bogleheads if we are knowingly superior…. Because they have missed out on more gains by calling the Top earlier, our Top is in thread is but a pale shadow in their glory.  I might have to use them as an indicator for my next bubble…

I think all gains should be taken from those who call a false top and redistributed to those who recognize the true top. And 10% fee to Thorstache, without whom the top would not be known.

aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8577 on: November 11, 2021, 05:31:32 PM »
Closed up-ish.   Premarkets are up. 

Back to the Roller Coaster.
« Last Edit: November 11, 2021, 05:34:06 PM by aboatguy »

JJ-

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8578 on: November 11, 2021, 07:05:12 PM »
Closed up-ish.   Premarkets are up. 

Back to the Roller Coaster.

Can a dead cat bounce against against the top?

BigMoneyJim

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8579 on: November 11, 2021, 07:44:48 PM »
Cats go to the top. (LOUD WARNING)

https://youtu.be/J_8mdH20qTQ?t=40

MustacheAndaHalf

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8580 on: November 12, 2021, 05:22:46 AM »
Closed up-ish.   Premarkets are up. 

Back to the Roller Coaster.
Can a dead cat bounce against against the top?

Using a 4 year old quote out of context:

A confirmed downtrend from all time highs is anything but noise, fellow.

aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8581 on: November 12, 2021, 10:03:58 AM »
Closed up-ish.   Premarkets are up. 

Back to the Roller Coaster.

Can a dead cat bounce against against the top?
Uppish right now, but it is US Government GS Payday lots of money going into the TSP??


RWTL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8582 on: November 12, 2021, 01:34:17 PM »
That cat picture is why I appreciate this thread so much.  Thanks for the literal LOL.

JJ-

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8583 on: November 12, 2021, 02:07:58 PM »
That cat picture is why I appreciate this thread so much.  Thanks for the literal LOL.

The wall of SpongeBob didn't do it for you? Come onnn

ChpBstrd

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8584 on: November 12, 2021, 02:28:48 PM »
That cat picture is why I appreciate this thread so much.  Thanks for the literal LOL.

The wall of SpongeBob didn't do it for you? Come onnn
Dopamine required from the internet top is in.

JJ-

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8585 on: November 12, 2021, 03:34:37 PM »
That cat picture is why I appreciate this thread so much.  Thanks for the literal LOL.

The wall of SpongeBob didn't do it for you? Come onnn
Dopamine required from the internet top is in.

While i don't have dopamine, i just thought if a joke.

What did the cat saw after being bounced along the stock market trampoline?
Me? Owwwwww

I'll see myself out. My top was in.

LetsRetireYoung

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8586 on: November 12, 2021, 06:20:46 PM »
I've just looked at the timestamp on the very first post in this thread... April 11, 2017. :)))

Does anyone else find it absolutely hilarious that the perma-bears in this thread (and elsewhere) spent 4 years, 7 months, and 1 day saying the sky will fall aaaaany day now? Even the worst pandemic since 1918 didn't do much: SPY fell from 339 on 2/19/20 to 218 on 3/23/20 (35.7% drop), and recovered by 8/18/20. (Source)

Since then, SPY has gone up to 470.7, aka 38.8% increase since before covid, or 115.9% increase from the rock bottom on 3/23/20.

I know some perma-bears in real life - they've been saying "the top is in! the bull run is a lie!!" ever since the rock bottom in March 2009. (On 3/10/09, SPY was 69.4. It's gone up by 578% since then...) At this point, the stock market would have to drop by more than half in order for the bears to get in on the same rock bottom level they probably missed out on back in March 2020. It would have to fall even more to get to the 2009 levels.

My point is that you can spend 4.5 years making apocalyptic predictions, or you can keep investing in index funds etc and end up making way more money: even if there's some kind of correction, you'd still end up way, wayyyy ahead of the sad perma-bears. :)

In the words of Robert Heinlein's Lazarus Long, "Don't ever become a pesimist; a pessimist is correct oftener than an optimist, but an optimist has more fun - and neither can stop the march of events."

...but what do I know? I merely built a Graham-style cigar-butt portfolio in May 2020, tripled it within a year, and retired. I'm not sure I'm even allowed on this thread since my serotonin levels are likely far higher than the mean value around these here parts. :))))

JJ-

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8587 on: November 12, 2021, 06:29:25 PM »
I've just looked at the timestamp on the very first post in this thread... April 11, 2017. :)))

Does anyone else find it absolutely hilarious that the perma-bears in this thread (and elsewhere) spent 4 years, 7 months, and 1 day saying the sky will fall aaaaany day now? Even the worst pandemic since 1918 didn't do much: SPY fell from 339 on 2/19/20 to 218 on 3/23/20 (35.7% drop), and recovered by 8/18/20. (Source)

Since then, SPY has gone up to 470.7, aka 38.8% increase since before covid, or 115.9% increase from the rock bottom on 3/23/20.

I know some perma-bears in real life - they've been saying "the top is in! the bull run is a lie!!" ever since the rock bottom in March 2009. (On 3/10/09, SPY was 69.4. It's gone up by 578% since then...) At this point, the stock market would have to drop by more than half in order for the bears to get in on the same rock bottom level they probably missed out on back in March 2020. It would have to fall even more to get to the 2009 levels.

My point is that you can spend 4.5 years making apocalyptic predictions, or you can keep investing in index funds etc and end up making way more money: even if there's some kind of correction, you'd still end up way, wayyyy ahead of the sad perma-bears. :)

In the words of Robert Heinlein's Lazarus Long, "Don't ever become a pesimist; a pessimist is correct oftener than an optimist, but an optimist has more fun - and neither can stop the march of events."

...but what do I know? I merely built a Graham-style cigar-butt portfolio in May 2020, tripled it within a year, and retired. I'm not sure I'm even allowed on this thread since my serotonin levels are likely far higher than the mean value around these here parts. :))))

That's a lot of text. I assume you mean top is in? Cause that's what I took away from it.

GuitarStv

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8588 on: November 12, 2021, 07:13:47 PM »
In the words of Robert Heinlein's Lazarus Long

Deep cut - props.

BigMoneyJim

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8589 on: November 12, 2021, 08:27:22 PM »
Are there any actual permabears here? I thought we were all just taking the piss for years unending. My interpretation is that even thorstach is part of it now.

Weisass

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8590 on: November 12, 2021, 08:32:04 PM »
long ass post top is def in.

dandarc

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8591 on: November 12, 2021, 08:58:03 PM »
Are there any actual permabears here? I thought we were all just taking the piss for years unending. My interpretation is that even thorstach is part of it now.
LRY is just a blogger who needs to get to 100 posts to unlock "push my blog via the sig line" . Otherwise was on a path to get banned for spamming before the rules were pointed out.

ETA: Top is in on jackasses looking to drive traffic to their site being to lazy to get the joke.

MOD EDIT: The ETA was unnecessarily rude.
« Last Edit: November 13, 2021, 04:10:08 PM by arebelspy »

LetsRetireYoung

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8592 on: November 12, 2021, 10:12:29 PM »
LRY is just a blogger who needs to get to 100 posts to unlock "push my blog via the sig line" . Otherwise was on a path to get banned for spamming before the rules were pointed out.

ETA: Top is in on jackasses looking to drive traffic to their site being to lazy to get the joke.
LOLOLOLOL wow, and I thought I left behind the HOA folks when I turned my condo into a rental and moved to the opposite coast and a whole different country.

Can you show me which of my posts broke the "Don't spam" rule? Because every single one of them contributed to MMM by providing relevant content. Conversely, I can point out a ton of posts from the regulars that provide zero content at all.

And thanks for using 6th-grade insults.

Fomerly known as something

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8593 on: November 12, 2021, 10:23:51 PM »
Closed up-ish.   Premarkets are up. 

Back to the Roller Coaster.

Can a dead cat bounce against against the top?
Uppish right now, but it is US Government GS Payday lots of money going into the TSP??



Nope that happens on Tuesday.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8594 on: November 12, 2021, 11:15:20 PM »
I can point out a ton of posts from the regulars that provide zero content at all.



PDXTabs

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8595 on: November 13, 2021, 12:43:54 AM »
My point is that you can spend 4.5 years making apocalyptic predictions, or you can keep investing in index funds etc and end up making way more money: even if there's some kind of correction, you'd still end up way, wayyyy ahead of the sad perma-bears. :)





...but what do I know? I merely built a Graham-style cigar-butt portfolio in May 2020, tripled it within a year, and retired. I'm not sure I'm even allowed on this thread since my serotonin levels are likely far higher than the mean value around these here parts. :))))

I would actually be very interested in how you went about that.

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8596 on: November 13, 2021, 01:07:30 AM »
I can point out a ton of posts from the regulars that provide zero content at all.




Wait.  I thought zero content at all was the aspirational goal of this thread.

PhilB

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8597 on: November 13, 2021, 03:18:33 AM »
My point is that you can spend 4.5 years making apocalyptic predictions, or you can keep investing in index funds etc and end up making way more money: even if there's some kind of correction, you'd still end up way, wayyyy ahead of the sad perma-bears. :)





...but what do I know? I merely built a Graham-style cigar-butt portfolio in May 2020, tripled it within a year, and retired. I'm not sure I'm even allowed on this thread since my serotonin levels are likely far higher than the mean value around these here parts. :))))

I would actually be very interested in how you went about that.

But maybe in a more appropriate thread so it doesn't get in the way of the bouncing cats.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8598 on: November 13, 2021, 01:47:49 PM »


But maybe in a more appropriate thread so it doesn't get in the way of the bouncing cats.

Yes, lets stay true to the topic at hand.  Cigar butts, being the opposite of cigar tops, are clearly out of bounds.  Butt is out.  Top is in.

LetsRetireYoung

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #8599 on: November 13, 2021, 02:31:32 PM »
I would actually be very interested in how you went about that.

But maybe in a more appropriate thread so it doesn't get in the way of the bouncing cats.

I'm not opposed to the idea, but the MMM-HOA committee is after me, even on this thread. :P The upside is that their clown shoes make it hard to run, so it's usually easy to get away. I figure if I start a whole new thread, it'll give them a beacon, and before you know it, there's an army of angry clowns all over the place.

The tl;dr version is to read Graham's The Intelligent Investor, everything Buffett ever wrote, and a few other things (I blogged about that - keyword "stock"), then identify some companies that are very safe but very discounted, and then make the hardest, craziest decision in your life by buying those stocks when they're bleeding out on the floor and everything is deep red. 'twas an emotional morning haha