Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 1479012 times)

Brother Esau

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6300 on: March 09, 2020, 07:43:36 AM »
The sky is falling.

DadJokes

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6301 on: March 09, 2020, 07:45:54 AM »
We're about 1.5% away from being an official bear market.

All hail the Top!

maizefolk

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6302 on: March 09, 2020, 07:49:33 AM »
Handy rules of thumb while waiting for your favorite stock market commentators:

-8% = one of the 15 worst days in the history of the stock market/S&P 500.
-9% = one of the 7 worst days in the history of the stock market/S&P 500
-10%= one of the 4 worst days in the history of the stock market/S&P 500
-13%* = one of the 2 worst days in the history of the stock market/S&P 500
-20%** = still only one of the 2 worst days in the history of the stock market/S&P 500

*Second circuit breaker
**Third circuit breaker, and trading stops for the day.

fattest_foot

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6303 on: March 09, 2020, 07:51:13 AM »
Handy rules of thumb while waiting for your favorite stock market commentators:

-8% = one of the 15 worst days in the history of the stock market/S&P 500.
-9% = one of the 7 worst days in the history of the stock market/S&P 500
-10%= one of the 4 worst days in the history of the stock market/S&P 500
-13%* = one of the 2 worst days in the history of the stock market/S&P 500
-20%** = still only one of the 2 worst days in the history of the stock market/S&P 500

*Second circuit breaker
**Third circuit breaker, and trading stops for the day.

I'm not generally one to panic, but a 7% drop after the whirlwind 2 weeks we previously had is pretty bad.

Not that I'm doing anything about it, but it's not a good sign.

markbike528CBX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6304 on: March 09, 2020, 08:14:46 AM »
S&P 500 back to June 2019 ,just last year, levels.

O the Horror!!

achvfi

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6305 on: March 09, 2020, 08:18:44 AM »
S&P 500 back to June 2019 ,just last year, levels.

O the Horror!!

Yay! fantastic. Buy buy buy

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6306 on: March 09, 2020, 08:28:17 AM »
S&P 500 back to June 2019 ,just last year, levels.

O the Horror!!

Yay! fantastic. Buy buy buy

Sure.  You go first though, k?

dogboyslim

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6307 on: March 09, 2020, 08:32:45 AM »
I am buying today, but just because it is on my regular automated investment schedule.

Steeze

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6308 on: March 09, 2020, 08:33:44 AM »
Bought at -15%, bought again today, waiting for -25% to buy more. Finally a decent sale!

markbike528CBX

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6309 on: March 09, 2020, 08:36:10 AM »
A 30% decline from the alleged "top" of 3393 gets us to the Original Top of 2380.
After that there be dragons.

Cabaka

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6310 on: March 09, 2020, 08:40:05 AM »
I am buying today, but just because it is on my regular automated investment schedule.

I actually did Friday with the auto buy from my 401k contribution but and am net short.


Cabaka

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6311 on: March 09, 2020, 08:43:21 AM »
S&P 500 back to June 2019 ,just last year, levels.

O the Horror!!

Yay! fantastic. Buy buy buy

Sure.  You go first though, k?

so at 17% mmm'ers knees get wobbly.

I do love lurking this thread and see where buy and holders drop as the economic news keeps the market on a decline.

achvfi

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6312 on: March 09, 2020, 08:49:35 AM »
S&P 500 back to June 2019 ,just last year, levels.

O the Horror!!

Yay! fantastic. Buy buy buy

Sure.  You go first though, k?

O definitely! Bought 6K this morning. That brings it to 18K in investments through the dip in last two weeks. Its sad I only have 5K more at my disposal for investments and I have to wait for biweekly contributions.

bacchi

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6313 on: March 09, 2020, 08:51:44 AM »
S&P 500 back to June 2019 ,just last year, levels.

O the Horror!!

Yay! fantastic. Buy buy buy

Sure.  You go first though, k?

O definitely! Bought 6K this morning. That brings it to 18K in investments through the dip in last two weeks. Its sad I only have 5K more at my disposal for investments and I have to wait for biweekly contributions.

I also bought this morning. I have some rental income that just hit the bank account. I wish I had more.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6314 on: March 09, 2020, 08:54:51 AM »
VTI <$100 this year for sure.

Davnasty

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6315 on: March 09, 2020, 09:23:17 AM »
S&P 500 back to June 2019 ,just last year, levels.

O the Horror!!

Yay! fantastic. Buy buy buy

Sure.  You go first though, k?

so at 17% mmm'ers knees get wobbly.

I do love lurking this thread and see where buy and holders drop as the economic news keeps the market on a decline.

Lol, not quite. Roland* is not a strict buy and hold index investor if that's what you mean by mmm'er.

If you're here to say "I told you so" you'll have to try again. It would seem more mmm'ers are buying/rebalancing than selling if you go by the super scientific data I've gathered from this thread.

*correct me if I'm wrong

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6316 on: March 09, 2020, 10:03:16 AM »
so at 17% mmm'ers knees get wobbly.

I do love lurking this thread and see where buy and holders drop as the economic news keeps the market on a decline.

All the buy and holders on this thread dropped on 11 April 2017.  That's when the top was in. 

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6317 on: March 09, 2020, 10:06:02 AM »
so at 17% mmm'ers knees get wobbly.

I do love lurking this thread and see where buy and holders drop as the economic news keeps the market on a decline.

All the buy and holders on this thread dropped on 11 April 2017.  That's when the top was in.

Yep.  Just us market timers now. 

PathtoFIRE

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6318 on: March 09, 2020, 10:28:43 AM »
I'm waiting to make sure there's not an afternoon rebound, if not then I'm in for another 10k for hitting -15%. Of course if we hit -20% I think I'll give it a day before making that 10k buy. Then I'm all out of EF/powder.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6319 on: March 09, 2020, 10:38:00 AM »
All you lucky mofos with jobs/dry powder should be buying on the way down, on the way up, and when the market is sideways. Stick to your IPS.

Does your IPS say to time buys based on drops from a new high?

Optimiser

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6320 on: March 09, 2020, 11:06:51 AM »
I finished investing my tax refund on Friday. Now new lows. Time to check the couch cushions.

Alternatepriorities

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6321 on: March 09, 2020, 11:08:31 AM »
All you lucky mofos with jobs/dry powder should be buying on the way down, on the way up, and when the market is sideways. Stick to your IPS.

Does your IPS say to time buys based on drops from a new high?

I keep reminding myself that with a savings rate over 50% this is a good thing. Tops are scary...

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6322 on: March 09, 2020, 11:10:46 AM »
Evidence that Thorstache is actually Jim Cramer - CNBCís Jim Cramer: This is more chaotic than the financial crisis and could finally kill the bull market

Really, you're telling us now that Coronavirus could derail the bull market?!

aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6323 on: March 09, 2020, 01:47:32 PM »
I'll admit that I messed up and converted some bonds to stocks last week. And I'm tempted to convert the rest this week. I think I'd be okay with trying to catch a falling knife, closing my eyes and covering my ears, and just waiting for the rebound. I realize this is just a form of market timing but it seems like the least harmful version of it assuming equities eventually go up as they have in the past.

nereo

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6324 on: March 09, 2020, 02:11:01 PM »
Evidence that Thorstache is actually Jim Cramer - CNBCís Jim Cramer: This is more chaotic than the financial crisis and could finally kill the bull market

Really, you're telling us now that Coronavirus could derail the bull market?!

If a doctor gave medical advice the way that Cramer gives financial advice, s/he would lose his/her medical license and quite possibly wind up in prison.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6325 on: March 09, 2020, 02:29:32 PM »
Took a look at CBOE VIX.  It hit 50.06 earlier today, and is hovering around 48.5 now.  Highest ever was 59.89 on October 1, 2008. 

I'm calling it.  Top VIX is IN!

Buffaloski, the Thorstache of VIXs.  Looks like we're goin' higher folks!

Welp, VIX went to 62 today. Looks like I have the Midas touch. In reverse.

I think Iíll refrain from calling the VIX top again for a spell. Could get me lynched.

vand

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6326 on: March 09, 2020, 02:47:32 PM »
Took a look at CBOE VIX.  It hit 50.06 earlier today, and is hovering around 48.5 now.  Highest ever was 59.89 on October 1, 2008. 

I'm calling it.  Top VIX is IN!

Buffaloski, the Thorstache of VIXs.  Looks like we're goin' higher folks!

Welp, VIX went to 62 today. Looks like I have the Midas touch. In reverse.

I think Iíll refrain from calling the VIX top again for a spell. Could get me lynched.

My bravado top call is still looking pretty good.

Steeze

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6327 on: March 09, 2020, 03:34:36 PM »
All you lucky mofos with jobs/dry powder should be buying on the way down, on the way up, and when the market is sideways. Stick to your IPS.

Does your IPS say to time buys based on drops from a new high?

IPS says invest cash immediately ... but I got my year end bonus in December - kept it in cash because I was looking at a rental property. Having major analysis paralysis for the rental - but these mutual funds are looking more attractive by the day. Think I will throw this cash into the market as we continue downward and apply for a HELOC to pay for the future rental instead.

Optimiser

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6328 on: March 09, 2020, 03:35:28 PM »
I'll admit that I messed up and converted some bonds to stocks last week. And I'm tempted to convert the rest this week. I think I'd be okay with trying to catch a falling knife, closing my eyes and covering my ears, and just waiting for the rebound. I realize this is just a form of market timing but it seems like the least harmful version of it assuming equities eventually go up as they have in the past.

The temptation is real

bthewalls

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6329 on: March 09, 2020, 04:11:39 PM »
Oh god what a day....Iíve emptied my business account into trading platform.

Would it be a bad thing to ask ones older parents for your inheritance this week?...itís hard to tell

Baz

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6330 on: March 09, 2020, 04:35:48 PM »
Oh god what a day....Iíve emptied my business account into trading platform.

Would it be a bad thing to ask ones older parents for your inheritance this week?...itís hard to tell

Baz

Lulz. You might want to wait on asking for the inheritance. A panic needs time to ripen into despair, acceptance, and capitulation. Weíre not even 2 weeks into this.

bthewalls

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6331 on: March 09, 2020, 05:37:18 PM »
Oh god what a day....Iíve emptied my business account into trading platform.

Would it be a bad thing to ask ones older parents for your inheritance this week?...itís hard to tell

Baz


Iíd say 6 weeks half the world will have flu

Lulz. You might want to wait on asking for the inheritance. A panic needs time to ripen into despair, acceptance, and capitulation. Weíre not even 2 weeks into this.

aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6332 on: March 09, 2020, 06:01:15 PM »


Invested my free cash on Payday and have almost two more weeks until next payday and another cash injection..... Hopefully VTSAX and VTIAX are still on a deep discount.... Top is not in  just a valley before the next peak, don't know how steep or deep the valley is since the bottom is either in or below the cloud layer.....

So resting up since it may be a long downhill slog before heading back up....or a quick climb...  anyway to reiterate 
« Last Edit: March 09, 2020, 06:12:35 PM by aboatguy »

Fomerly known as something

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6333 on: March 09, 2020, 06:20:09 PM »
I invest about $1000 tomorrow (401k and match).  Iím not close to my trigger to rebalance off schedule yet though.

dividendman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6334 on: March 09, 2020, 07:54:16 PM »
Oh god what a day....Iíve emptied my business account into trading platform.

Would it be a bad thing to ask ones older parents for your inheritance this week?...itís hard to tell

Baz

No need to ask, you do realize there is a virus that kills old people spreading right?

ender

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6335 on: March 09, 2020, 08:11:55 PM »
Oh god what a day....Iíve emptied my business account into trading platform.

Would it be a bad thing to ask ones older parents for your inheritance this week?...itís hard to tell

Baz

No need to ask, you do realize there is a virus that kills old people spreading right?

big yikes

Alternatepriorities

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6336 on: March 09, 2020, 08:15:24 PM »
Oh god what a day....Iíve emptied my business account into trading platform.

Would it be a bad thing to ask ones older parents for your inheritance this week?...itís hard to tell

Baz

No need to ask, you do realize there is a virus that kills old people spreading right?

big yikes

So we've officially moved into gallows humor mode?

BicycleB

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6337 on: March 09, 2020, 09:14:25 PM »
I don't usually buy anything because, hey, FIREd. But it's time to rebalance.

The plunge so far overcame the previous runup by a small amount. But for the excitement of it, I rebalanced anyway. Sold 10k VASGX, bought 10k VTWAX. Effectively, sold $2k in bonds, bought $2k in stocks.

Forgive me, O Thorstach.

Monerexia

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6338 on: March 09, 2020, 10:26:22 PM »
Fear is back. Time for greed!

Fomerly known as something

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6339 on: March 10, 2020, 05:02:29 AM »
Of course todayís futures are up you 401k money goes in the market today for my most recent paycheck

DadJokes

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6340 on: March 10, 2020, 05:53:23 AM »
Oh god what a day....Iíve emptied my business account into trading platform.

Would it be a bad thing to ask ones older parents for your inheritance this week?...itís hard to tell

Baz

No need to ask, you do realize there is a virus that kills old people spreading right?

Yep, just go contract the virus yourself, then spread it to them. You're more likely to live, and they have an increased chance of not surviving.

Then you just have to live with the fact that you killed your parents for money.

PathtoFIRE

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6341 on: March 10, 2020, 07:39:37 AM »
Went ahead and updated my portfolio spreadsheet a little early, usually do it quarterly, I'm only 2% off my equities/non-equities bands, although that's partly due to moving 20k into equities earlier than planned and partly due to being a little top-heavy before this month. Still outside rebalancing territory of 5%, so I guess I wait until the real panic/fall, or just let it drift back up naturally with the rebound. Darn.

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6342 on: March 10, 2020, 08:56:54 AM »
Too late! We are up almost 2% for the day already. If you arenít 100% in youíve already missed out.

frugalnacho

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6343 on: March 10, 2020, 09:03:08 AM »
Oh god what a day....Iíve emptied my business account into trading platform.

Would it be a bad thing to ask ones older parents for your inheritance this week?...itís hard to tell

Baz

No need to ask, you do realize there is a virus that kills old people spreading right?

Yep, just go contract the virus yourself, then spread it to them. You're more likely to live, and they have an increased chance of not surviving.

Then you just have to live with the fact that you killed your parents for money.

I remember the good old days when people murdered their parents just for the thrill and power of it, and not for any type of financial gain.  What has the world come to. SMH.

Buffaloski Boris

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6344 on: March 10, 2020, 09:56:00 AM »

So we've officially moved into gallows humor mode?

Yes. And not a moment too soon!

Alternatepriorities

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6345 on: March 10, 2020, 10:07:11 AM »

So we've officially moved into gallows humor mode?

Yes. And not a moment too soon!

It took a moment to find the right button. Turns out it was about 1/5th of the way down from the TOP.

bthewalls

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6346 on: March 10, 2020, 04:32:18 PM »
Oh god what a day....Iíve emptied my business account into trading platform.

Would it be a bad thing to ask ones older parents for your inheritance this week?...itís hard to tell

Baz


Ha...very funny

No need to ask, you do realize there is a virus that kills old people spreading right?

OurTown

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6347 on: March 11, 2020, 02:15:08 PM »
It's a bear!

Davnasty

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6348 on: March 11, 2020, 02:15:45 PM »
rar

scantee

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #6349 on: March 11, 2020, 02:25:38 PM »
Two years and eleven months later we can finally say the top truly is (was) in.