Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 1439265 times)

JAYSLOL

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5800 on: February 10, 2020, 06:16:42 PM »
Did we reach top Top yet?

Clean Shaven

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ender

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5802 on: February 10, 2020, 07:04:54 PM »
The crazy thing is the SP500 could drop 20% and still only go back to where it was around 2.5 years ago.


jeroly

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5803 on: February 10, 2020, 07:08:53 PM »
So today is not the Top because the final time was already in????   
If Thorstach is Australian, we may still be waiting for the Grand Final Top.

maizeman

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5804 on: February 10, 2020, 07:27:22 PM »
There is this theory of the Moebius.  A twist in the fabric of space where time becomes a loop from which there is no escape.  So when we reach that point, whatever happened will happen again.

I see we both watched the same episode of start trek last night.

Either that or you have a weakness for early 90s british electronica.


aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5805 on: February 10, 2020, 08:09:32 PM »
I placed a small wager on a local maxima.  I purchased 100 SPY $325 puts for $3.40 today, expiring March 20

Essentially controlling $3,250,000 of stock with $34,000.

Just on a gut feeling that the economic impact from the virus hasn't been priced in (yeah I know everything is priced in, except when it isn't).

I am probably out at a 5% dip in the market, which would make about $70,000 profit.

Down $3,500 after the first day of trading. Don't doubt ur vibe.

To be honest, I also would have expected the impact on supply chains would have had more of an effect on revenue and share prices. Good luck with the bet.

lost_in_the_endless_aisle

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5806 on: February 10, 2020, 09:23:33 PM »
I placed a small wager on a local maxima.  I purchased 100 SPY $325 puts for $3.40 today, expiring March 20

Essentially controlling $3,250,000 of stock with $34,000.

Just on a gut feeling that the economic impact from the virus hasn't been priced in (yeah I know everything is priced in, except when it isn't).

I am probably out at a 5% dip in the market, which would make about $70,000 profit.

Down $3,500 after the first day of trading. Don't doubt ur vibe.

To be honest, I also would have expected the impact on supply chains would have had more of an effect on revenue and share prices. Good luck with the bet.
There are a few mitigating factors:
1) the trade war caused many to pull forward imports to avoid expected tariff increases, so inventory levels are higher than normal
2) Chinese New Year is a time of normal slowdown coming out of China so the impact relative to what is normal this time of year is dampened
3) the severely impacted area is pretty far inland, while the coastal provinces are much more important for total export output (I work for a retailer/manufacturer and out of our >100 Chinese supplier locations, I don't think even one is Hubei province, though there are second-order effects where possibly our suppliers have suppliers there)
4) US companies sourcing from China have been diversifying into other countries (e.g. Vietnam) even prior to the trade war, though the trade war has intensified that process; rapidly rising wages in China has also made other countries more competitive as sourcing options in recent years
5) US GDP is $21.4T compared with total imports from China of $452B--trade with China is just not that big compared to the total size of the economy

conclusion: it's priced in and stonks only go up

Brother Esau

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5807 on: February 11, 2020, 04:24:03 AM »
I placed a small wager on a local maxima.  I purchased 100 SPY $325 puts for $3.40 today, expiring March 20

Essentially controlling $3,250,000 of stock with $34,000.

Just on a gut feeling that the economic impact from the virus hasn't been priced in (yeah I know everything is priced in, except when it isn't).

I am probably out at a 5% dip in the market, which would make about $70,000 profit.

Down $3,500 after the first day of trading. Don't doubt ur vibe.

To be honest, I also would have expected the impact on supply chains would have had more of an effect on revenue and share prices. Good luck with the bet.
There are a few mitigating factors:
1) the trade war caused many to pull forward imports to avoid expected tariff increases, so inventory levels are higher than normal
2) Chinese New Year is a time of normal slowdown coming out of China so the impact relative to what is normal this time of year is dampened
3) the severely impacted area is pretty far inland, while the coastal provinces are much more important for total export output (I work for a retailer/manufacturer and out of our >100 Chinese supplier locations, I don't think even one is Hubei province, though there are second-order effects where possibly our suppliers have suppliers there)
4) US companies sourcing from China have been diversifying into other countries (e.g. Vietnam) even prior to the trade war, though the trade war has intensified that process; rapidly rising wages in China has also made other countries more competitive as sourcing options in recent years
5) US GDP is $21.4T compared with total imports from China of $452B--trade with China is just not that big compared to the total size of the economy

conclusion: it's priced in and stonks only go up

So, in other words, Top is In?

wienerdog

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5808 on: February 11, 2020, 06:07:01 AM »
I placed a small wager on a local maxima.  I purchased 100 SPY $325 puts for $3.40 today, expiring March 20

Essentially controlling $3,250,000 of stock with $34,000.

Just on a gut feeling that the economic impact from the virus hasn't been priced in (yeah I know everything is priced in, except when it isn't).

I am probably out at a 5% dip in the market, which would make about $70,000 profit.

Down $3,500 after the first day of trading. Don't doubt ur vibe.

To be honest, I also would have expected the impact on supply chains would have had more of an effect on revenue and share prices. Good luck with the bet.
There are a few mitigating factors:
1) the trade war caused many to pull forward imports to avoid expected tariff increases, so inventory levels are higher than normal
2) Chinese New Year is a time of normal slowdown coming out of China so the impact relative to what is normal this time of year is dampened
3) the severely impacted area is pretty far inland, while the coastal provinces are much more important for total export output (I work for a retailer/manufacturer and out of our >100 Chinese supplier locations, I don't think even one is Hubei province, though there are second-order effects where possibly our suppliers have suppliers there)
4) US companies sourcing from China have been diversifying into other countries (e.g. Vietnam) even prior to the trade war, though the trade war has intensified that process; rapidly rising wages in China has also made other countries more competitive as sourcing options in recent years
5) US GDP is $21.4T compared with total imports from China of $452B--trade with China is just not that big compared to the total size of the economy

conclusion: it's priced in and stonks only go up

So, in other words, Top is In?

Stonks only go up so the Top isn't in.  More Tops for all!

DadJokes

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5809 on: February 11, 2020, 06:15:41 AM »

There are a few mitigating factors:
1) the trade war caused many to pull forward imports to avoid expected tariff increases, so inventory levels are higher than normal
2) Chinese New Year is a time of normal slowdown coming out of China so the impact relative to what is normal this time of year is dampened
3) the severely impacted area is pretty far inland, while the coastal provinces are much more important for total export output (I work for a retailer/manufacturer and out of our >100 Chinese supplier locations, I don't think even one is Hubei province, though there are second-order effects where possibly our suppliers have suppliers there)
4) US companies sourcing from China have been diversifying into other countries (e.g. Vietnam) even prior to the trade war, though the trade war has intensified that process; rapidly rising wages in China has also made other countries more competitive as sourcing options in recent years
5) US GDP is $21.4T compared with total imports from China of $452B--trade with China is just not that big compared to the total size of the economy

conclusion: it's priced in and stonks only go up

I've bolded and underlined my takeaways from that comment.

frugalnacho

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5810 on: February 11, 2020, 06:47:15 AM »
That was my topaway as well.

v8rx7guy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5811 on: February 11, 2020, 08:17:41 AM »
Anyone have big money in Sprint Wireless? Top is in!

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5812 on: February 11, 2020, 09:17:56 AM »

Stonks only go up so the Top isn't in.  More Tops for all!


wienerdog

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5813 on: February 11, 2020, 11:30:12 AM »

aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5814 on: February 11, 2020, 03:31:52 PM »

Stonks only go up so the Top isn't in.  More Tops for all!



https://youtu.be/SMRg9mKcyhM

Not only Stonks but stocks seem to be going up too.   Hurray for more tops

Chris @ Saturday Financial

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5815 on: February 12, 2020, 10:36:51 AM »
Not only Stonks but stocks seem to be going up too.   Hurray for more tops

I don't think you understand. THE top is in. There are no other tops. This one is it. (2/12/20)

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5816 on: February 12, 2020, 11:29:39 AM »
I placed a small wager on a local maxima.  I purchased 100 SPY $325 puts for $3.40 today, expiring March 20

Essentially controlling $3,250,000 of stock with $34,000.

Just on a gut feeling that the economic impact from the virus hasn't been priced in (yeah I know everything is priced in, except when it isn't).

I am probably out at a 5% dip in the market, which would make about $70,000 profit.

Down $3,500 after the first day of trading. Don't doubt ur vibe.

To be honest, I also would have expected the impact on supply chains would have had more of an effect on revenue and share prices. Good luck with the bet.

It is down more like $10,000.   Not really concerned though, plenty of time left until March 20.   I do have other irons in the fire, made $6,000 on Nektar today.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5817 on: February 12, 2020, 11:40:52 AM »
I placed a small wager on a local maxima.  I purchased 100 SPY $325 puts for $3.40 today, expiring March 20

Essentially controlling $3,250,000 of stock with $34,000.

Just on a gut feeling that the economic impact from the virus hasn't been priced in (yeah I know everything is priced in, except when it isn't).

I am probably out at a 5% dip in the market, which would make about $70,000 profit.

Down $3,500 after the first day of trading. Don't doubt ur vibe.

To be honest, I also would have expected the impact on supply chains would have had more of an effect on revenue and share prices. Good luck with the bet.

It is down more like $10,000.   Not really concerned though, plenty of time left until March 20.   I do have other irons in the fire, made $6,000 on Nektar today.

Do you actually think SPY is going to go below 325 before March 20 though?  Time is not really on your side since it is now eroding the value of the puts even if the market stays flat (since the Top is In).

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5818 on: February 12, 2020, 12:13:42 PM »

Do you actually think SPY is going to go below 325 before March 20 though?  Time is not really on your side since it is now eroding the value of the puts even if the market stays flat (since the Top is In).

Sure, anything is possible.   The market was already getting ahead of itself before the corona virus.   This is just panic buying FOMO.   In a week or two investors are going to start looking at missed 1Q earnings.

Other things could tank the market.   Bernie winning more.  The virus not really being as over as wall street is pricing in.

I am pretty comfortable with it, and it lets me trade around in other accounts without fear of waking up one morning and seeing the whole market down 10%.

Tyson

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5819 on: February 12, 2020, 12:25:12 PM »

Do you actually think SPY is going to go below 325 before March 20 though?  Time is not really on your side since it is now eroding the value of the puts even if the market stays flat (since the Top is In).

Sure, anything is possible.   The market was already getting ahead of itself before the corona virus.   This is just panic buying FOMO.   In a week or two investors are going to start looking at missed 1Q earnings.

Other things could tank the market.   Bernie winning more.  The virus not really being as over as wall street is pricing in.

I am pretty comfortable with it, and it lets me trade around in other accounts without fear of waking up one morning and seeing the whole market down 10%.

I just don't understand active traders.  You're adding work and stress to your life, and for what?  You won't outperform the market, over time.  And if you do it will be a result of luck.  All the trading, knowledge and savvy you think you have is just fooling you into thinking you have more control than you do. 

To me, the point of FIRE is to be able to reduce the amount of stress in my life.  Active trading (to me) would be even more stressful than my regular job. 

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5820 on: February 12, 2020, 12:29:29 PM »

Do you actually think SPY is going to go below 325 before March 20 though?  Time is not really on your side since it is now eroding the value of the puts even if the market stays flat (since the Top is In).

Sure, anything is possible.   The market was already getting ahead of itself before the corona virus.   This is just panic buying FOMO.   In a week or two investors are going to start looking at missed 1Q earnings.

Other things could tank the market.   Bernie winning more.  The virus not really being as over as wall street is pricing in.

I am pretty comfortable with it, and it lets me trade around in other accounts without fear of waking up one morning and seeing the whole market down 10%.

I just don't understand active traders.  You're adding work and stress to your life, and for what?  You won't outperform the market, over time.  And if you do it will be a result of luck.  All the trading, knowledge and savvy you think you have is just fooling you into thinking you have more control than you do. 

To me, the point of FIRE is to be able to reduce the amount of stress in my life.  Active trading (to me) would be even more stressful than my regular job.

Do you understand gambling?  Because itís similar/same

Also it seems like Roland is saying that earnings will be a reality check!

Tyson

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5821 on: February 12, 2020, 12:31:59 PM »
Do you understand gambling?  Because itís similar/same

Also it seems like Roland is saying that earnings will be a reality check!

Fear is back, VIX above 15, XIV breaking down. SPY to follow, earnings will be a reality check.

That is some funny sh!t right there, nice call :)

aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5822 on: February 12, 2020, 02:11:43 PM »
I placed a small wager on a local maxima.  I purchased 100 SPY $325 puts for $3.40 today, expiring March 20

Essentially controlling $3,250,000 of stock with $34,000.

Just on a gut feeling that the economic impact from the virus hasn't been priced in (yeah I know everything is priced in, except when it isn't).

I am probably out at a 5% dip in the market, which would make about $70,000 profit.

Down $3,500 after the first day of trading. Don't doubt ur vibe.

To be honest, I also would have expected the impact on supply chains would have had more of an effect on revenue and share prices. Good luck with the bet.

It is down more like $10,000.   Not really concerned though, plenty of time left until March 20.   I do have other irons in the fire, made $6,000 on Nektar today.

Down $13,400 as of today's market close per the quote I just checked.

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5823 on: February 12, 2020, 03:08:53 PM »
Yeah, evidently the top was not as in as one might have thought.

On the plus side, this must mean the wuflu is pretty much over, so I did accomplish that!

Also Trump is getting another 4 years, I accomplished that too, but I am not proud of it.

BicycleB

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5824 on: February 12, 2020, 03:50:10 PM »
Yeah, evidently the top was not as in as one might have thought.

On the plus side, this must mean the wuflu is pretty much over, so I did accomplish that!

Also Trump is getting another 4 years, I accomplished that too, but I am not proud of it.

Thorstach controlling the market, Roland of Gilead controlling pandemics and elections - we are seeing the top of the world's control system.

I feel privileged to see history being made.

PS. Hmm - is Roland CREATING Gilead? Or is this mere distraction from the great Top?

aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5825 on: February 12, 2020, 04:02:36 PM »
Also Trump is getting another 4 years, I accomplished that too, but I am not proud of it.

Hmmm...Roland of Gilead or Commander Lawrence of Gilead?
« Last Edit: February 12, 2020, 07:25:24 PM by aspiringnomad »

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5826 on: February 12, 2020, 04:19:36 PM »
Roland = Thorstach?

Clean Shaven

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5827 on: February 12, 2020, 05:17:28 PM »

Wintergreen78

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5828 on: February 12, 2020, 05:26:49 PM »

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5829 on: February 13, 2020, 08:07:28 AM »

Down $13,400 as of today's market close per the quote I just checked.

Now down *only* $7,000.

It could go either way now, as always.   15,000 new cases of flu seems to be having an effect on the market although it was probably just a change in the way they were being diagnosed.

I consider the puts sort of a flu protection device if we get a real outbreak in the USA, like 1000s of cases.   Then the market likely will drop 10%.  I hope this does not happen.  I would be fine eating the loss on the puts instead of having trade disrupted that much.

Its gambling, but so is taking a cruise right now, and there are plenty of folks still lined up to go.

aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5830 on: February 13, 2020, 01:06:21 PM »

Down $13,400 as of today's market close per the quote I just checked.

Now down *only* $7,000.

It could go either way now, as always.   15,000 new cases of flu seems to be having an effect on the market although it was probably just a change in the way they were being diagnosed.

I consider the puts sort of a flu protection device if we get a real outbreak in the USA, like 1000s of cases.   Then the market likely will drop 10%.  I hope this does not happen.  I would be fine eating the loss on the puts instead of having trade disrupted that much.

Its gambling, but so is taking a cruise right now, and there are plenty of folks still lined up to go.

Yeah, this play is definitely part hedge, part gamble which is a reasonable strategy depending on your investment mix and goals. Especially because top is in.

Monerexia

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5831 on: February 13, 2020, 10:00:00 PM »
Not good. Portfolio down 0.05% today. Fear is back.

mies

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5832 on: February 14, 2020, 04:56:19 AM »
Not good. Portfolio down 0.05% today. Fear is back.

You should have cashed out on Wednesday when you had the chance.

habaneroNorway

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5833 on: February 14, 2020, 05:15:30 AM »
How come my MW has increased by X this month when my paycheck only was y and y < X ?

dandarc

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5834 on: February 14, 2020, 05:34:07 AM »
How come my MW has increased by X this month when my paycheck only was y and y < X ?
Paycheck TOP IS IN!

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5835 on: February 14, 2020, 12:28:58 PM »
How come my MW has increased by X this month when my paycheck only was y and y < X ?

Cat accountants always inflate Meow Worth


Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5836 on: February 14, 2020, 05:57:07 PM »
Well brilliant.. I raised this year's spending money by selling some VTSAX yesterday!

Clearly I suck at market timing..:)

Monerexia

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5837 on: February 14, 2020, 11:02:15 PM »
Not good. Portfolio down 0.05% today. Fear is back.

You should have cashed out on Wednesday when you had the chance.

Yes I wished that too and was sad! But yikes today up 0.14% so made three times as much today as I lost yesterday. That silly top.

mies

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5838 on: February 15, 2020, 12:38:09 AM »
Not good. Portfolio down 0.05% today. Fear is back.

You should have cashed out on Wednesday when you had the chance.

Yes I wished that too and was sad! But yikes today up 0.14% so made three times as much today as I lost yesterday. That silly top.

Genius. Itís almost like if youíre patient and wait out these dips, you come out ahead.

2sk22

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5839 on: February 15, 2020, 03:16:17 AM »
Looks like there really was a top in tech startup activity recently: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/startup-barometer/

brooklynmoney

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5840 on: February 18, 2020, 10:17:34 PM »
I think DJ Khaled really captured the essence of the top is in for me:

All I do is win win win no matter what
Got money on my mind I can never get enough
And every time I step up in the buildin'
Everybody hands go up

wienerdog

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5841 on: February 19, 2020, 10:29:09 AM »
I think DJ Khaled really captured the essence of the top is in for me:


Was that actually his song or he was making an appearance to rap about the top?

Oh by the way Top wasn't in as there was another top.  Anyone in for 3400?

Maenad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5842 on: February 19, 2020, 10:51:39 AM »
According to Marketwatch the market is up today because the number of new cases of COVID-19 is dropping. Coronavirus top is in!

(Seriously, I hope so. My employer has an office in China and I'm worried about my coworkers.)

merula

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5843 on: February 19, 2020, 11:05:18 AM »

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5844 on: February 19, 2020, 11:08:20 AM »
I think DJ Khaled really captured the essence of the top is in for me:


Was that actually his song or he was making an appearance to rap about the top?

Oh by the way Top wasn't in as there was another top.  Anyone in for 3400?

Haven't you learned anything from this thread?  Top is in.  We'll never make 3400.  Ever.  The NYSE will just be crumbling abandoned building soon. 

Brother Esau

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5845 on: February 19, 2020, 11:28:27 AM »
I think DJ Khaled really captured the essence of the top is in for me:


Was that actually his song or he was making an appearance to rap about the top?

Oh by the way Top wasn't in as there was another top.  Anyone in for 3400?

Haven't you learned anything from this thread?  Top is in.  We'll never make 3400.  Ever.  The NYSE will just be crumbling abandoned building soon.

aboatguy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5846 on: February 19, 2020, 04:56:42 PM »
I think DJ Khaled really captured the essence of the top is in for me:


Was that actually his song or he was making an appearance to rap about the top?

Oh by the way Top wasn't in as there was another top.  Anyone in for 3400?

Haven't you learned anything from this thread?  Top is in.  We'll never make 3400.  Ever.  The NYSE will just be crumbling abandoned building soon.
top definitely was not in.

aspiringnomad

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5847 on: February 19, 2020, 05:39:38 PM »

Down $13,400 as of today's market close per the quote I just checked.

Now down *only* $7,000.

It could go either way now, as always.   15,000 new cases of flu seems to be having an effect on the market although it was probably just a change in the way they were being diagnosed.

I consider the puts sort of a flu protection device if we get a real outbreak in the USA, like 1000s of cases.   Then the market likely will drop 10%.  I hope this does not happen.  I would be fine eating the loss on the puts instead of having trade disrupted that much.

Its gambling, but so is taking a cruise right now, and there are plenty of folks still lined up to go.

Still holding?

If anyone wants to jump into this same bet for half of what cost Roland, you'd make ~$200,000 if the market drops 10% from its current spot in the next 30 days. Options are fun (to watch).

wienerdog

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5848 on: February 20, 2020, 05:13:14 AM »

Down $13,400 as of today's market close per the quote I just checked.

Now down *only* $7,000.

It could go either way now, as always.   15,000 new cases of flu seems to be having an effect on the market although it was probably just a change in the way they were being diagnosed.

I consider the puts sort of a flu protection device if we get a real outbreak in the USA, like 1000s of cases.   Then the market likely will drop 10%.  I hope this does not happen.  I would be fine eating the loss on the puts instead of having trade disrupted that much.

Its gambling, but so is taking a cruise right now, and there are plenty of folks still lined up to go.

Still holding?

 if the market drops 10% from its current spot in the next 30 days.

Impossible!  Top is not in yet.

Brother Esau

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #5849 on: February 20, 2020, 06:55:14 AM »