Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 3447425 times)

dragoncar

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 9947
  • Registered member
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4900 on: August 09, 2019, 03:58:27 PM »
Volatility top is in?

BigMoneyJim

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 368
  • Age: 54
  • Location: Nomadic retiree in the Rockies
    • Jim's Personal Finance Blog
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4901 on: August 10, 2019, 09:29:10 AM »
I keep about 40% in fixed income ... because TOPS are a real thing.

TIPS TOPS IS IN!

2Birds1Stone

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8184
  • Location: Earth
  • K Thnx Bye
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4902 on: August 10, 2019, 11:56:02 AM »
I like the reverse glidepath approach.

I'm sitting around 53% Equities this morning, with another 5% precious metals, 5% REIT.

The remaining 37% is in I-Bonds, BND, 2.5-2.85% CD ladder and maybe 2% in cash.

The way I look at it, if stocks tank 50%, I'll still only lose 25% of my spending power. At this point, I'm more concerned about not losing than winning. Our spending is so low, that even a few years of work at an entry level job in my space can completely make up for a slightly more conservative allocation. We will spend down the CD's first in FIRE, so that will drop significantly over time. Probably take a decade to get to a 80/20 long term AA.

dandarc

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5828
  • Age: 42
  • Pronouns: he/him/his
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4903 on: August 11, 2019, 10:59:37 AM »
. . . At this point, I'm more concerned about not losing than winning. . . .
Tresselball top was in almost 10 years ago.

DadJokes

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2364
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4904 on: August 12, 2019, 06:17:49 AM »
We're basically 100% US equities.

35% VTSAX
57% VINIX (best low cost option through 401k)
8% VFIAX (best low cost option through HSA)

However, most of the businesses on the US stock exchange do sufficient international business that I'm not too worried about needing to diversify, and we have a long time until retirement, so I see no reason to move anything into bonds at the moment.

35andFI

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 291
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4905 on: August 12, 2019, 09:21:41 AM »
We're basically 100% US equities.

35% VTSAX
57% VINIX (best low cost option through 401k)
8% VFIAX (best low cost option through HSA)

However, most of the businesses on the US stock exchange do sufficient international business that I'm not too worried about needing to diversify, and we have a long time until retirement, so I see no reason to move anything into bonds at the moment.

This is very similar to what I am doing and for the reasons why I am doing it.

68% VTSAX (Total U.S. market fund held in taxable and IRA)
30% WFSPX (S&P 500 fund held in 401k)
2% SPTM (Total U.S. market ETF held in HSA)

OurTown

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1392
  • Age: 55
  • Location: Tennessee
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4906 on: August 12, 2019, 03:32:01 PM »
99 pages of top on the wall.

Tyson

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3231
  • Age: 52
  • Location: Denver, Colorado
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4907 on: August 12, 2019, 05:15:18 PM »
99 pages of top on the wall.

Neunundneunzig luftballons float by!

2Birds1Stone

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8184
  • Location: Earth
  • K Thnx Bye
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4908 on: August 12, 2019, 05:44:03 PM »
Yay, Argentina top is in.

Travis

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4331
  • Location: California
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4909 on: August 12, 2019, 06:12:41 PM »
99 pages of top on the wall.

Neunundneunzig luftballons float by!

On the same day Russia reports a nuclear missile accident...

Buffaloski Boris

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2121
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4910 on: August 12, 2019, 07:28:01 PM »
I like the reverse glidepath approach.

I'm sitting around 53% Equities this morning, with another 5% precious metals, 5% REIT.

The remaining 37% is in I-Bonds, BND, 2.5-2.85% CD ladder and maybe 2% in cash.

The way I look at it, if stocks tank 50%, I'll still only lose 25% of my spending power. At this point, I'm more concerned about not losing than winning. Our spending is so low, that even a few years of work at an entry level job in my space can completely make up for a slightly more conservative allocation. We will spend down the CD's first in FIRE, so that will drop significantly over time. Probably take a decade to get to a 80/20 long term AA.

OK, so by reverse glide path you mean increasing your allocation in equities over time spent in retirement? If so, I like the approach. Minimizes SORR.


EscapeVelocity2020

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 4993
  • Age: 51
  • Location: Houston
    • EscapeVelocity2020
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4911 on: August 12, 2019, 10:18:38 PM »
I like the reverse glidepath approach.

I'm sitting around 53% Equities this morning, with another 5% precious metals, 5% REIT.

The remaining 37% is in I-Bonds, BND, 2.5-2.85% CD ladder and maybe 2% in cash.

The way I look at it, if stocks tank 50%, I'll still only lose 25% of my spending power. At this point, I'm more concerned about not losing than winning. Our spending is so low, that even a few years of work at an entry level job in my space can completely make up for a slightly more conservative allocation. We will spend down the CD's first in FIRE, so that will drop significantly over time. Probably take a decade to get to a 80/20 long term AA.

OK, so by reverse glide path you mean increasing your allocation in equities over time spent in retirement? If so, I like the approach. Minimizes SORR.

But let's be realistic, the reverse glide-path approach just highlights that we ultimately spend less as we get old and can maximize our beneficiaries' inheritance by holding equities while we coast off slowly into the night.  It's a perfectly legitimate strategy, but I prefer not to think about it, since I'm going to be young and vibrant forever!  I've also upped my current spending a bit (YOLO) since my inheritors will benefit from me using this strategy on their behalf :)

marty998

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7372
  • Location: Sydney, Oz
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4912 on: August 13, 2019, 02:57:11 AM »
Yay, Argentina top is in.

Not for the first time in history either if I recall correctly. Didn't they go bankrupt once before?

habanero

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1151
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4913 on: August 13, 2019, 03:02:11 AM »

Not for the first time in history either if I recall correctly. Didn't they go bankrupt once before?

Mine on once. From Wikipedia:

Americas    Argentina   1827   Default.[20]
Americas    Argentina   1890   Default. Panic of 1890[20]
Americas    Argentina   1915   Provincial default.[20]
Americas    Argentina   1930   Provincial default.[20]
Americas    Argentina   1982   Default. Latin American debt crisis[20]
Americas    Argentina   1988–1989   Internal debt default. Latin American debt crisis[20]
Americas    Argentina   2001   Default. Following years of instability, the Argentine economic crisis (1999–2002) came to a head, and a new government announced it could not meet its public debt obligations.[20]
Americas    Argentina   2005–2016   Argentine debt restructuring.

Buffaloski Boris

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2121
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4914 on: August 13, 2019, 03:04:50 AM »
I like the reverse glidepath approach.

I'm sitting around 53% Equities this morning, with another 5% precious metals, 5% REIT.

The remaining 37% is in I-Bonds, BND, 2.5-2.85% CD ladder and maybe 2% in cash.

The way I look at it, if stocks tank 50%, I'll still only lose 25% of my spending power. At this point, I'm more concerned about not losing than winning. Our spending is so low, that even a few years of work at an entry level job in my space can completely make up for a slightly more conservative allocation. We will spend down the CD's first in FIRE, so that will drop significantly over time. Probably take a decade to get to a 80/20 long term AA.

OK, so by reverse glide path you mean increasing your allocation in equities over time spent in retirement? If so, I like the approach. Minimizes SORR.

But let's be realistic, the reverse glide-path approach just highlights that we ultimately spend less as we get old and can maximize our beneficiaries' inheritance by holding equities while we coast off slowly into the night.  It's a perfectly legitimate strategy, but I prefer not to think about it, since I'm going to be young and vibrant forever!  I've also upped my current spending a bit (YOLO) since my inheritors will benefit from me using this strategy on their behalf :)

Perfectly fine thing to do. "Flexibility" in early retirement to me means having more than enough and using the excess to increase generational wealth.  Although I kinda sorta think I won't be retiring early anyway.   

Exflyboy

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8683
  • Age: 63
  • Location: Corvallis, Oregon
  • Expat Brit living in the New World..:)
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4915 on: August 13, 2019, 12:19:50 PM »
Hey I see Trump and his goons must have bought some index funds at the close yesterday!

Tomorrow the increased China tarriffs will be imposed after all.. They would have sold by then..

dandarc

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5828
  • Age: 42
  • Pronouns: he/him/his
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4916 on: August 13, 2019, 12:53:39 PM »
Hey I see Trump and his goons must have bought some index funds at the close yesterday!

Tomorrow the increased China tarriffs will be imposed after all.. They would have sold by then..
Does sort of seem like they're trying to create volatility with all the flip-flops from one day to the next.

OurTown

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1392
  • Age: 55
  • Location: Tennessee
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4917 on: August 13, 2019, 12:55:19 PM »
Hey I see Trump and his goons must have bought some index funds at the close yesterday!

Tomorrow the increased China tarriffs will be imposed after all.. They would have sold by then..
Does sort of seem like they're trying to create volatility with all the flip-flops from one day to the next.

Or maybe they are just incompetent.

dragoncar

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 9947
  • Registered member
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4918 on: August 13, 2019, 01:02:41 PM »
Hey I see Trump and his goons must have bought some index funds at the close yesterday!

Tomorrow the increased China tarriffs will be imposed after all.. They would have sold by then..
Does sort of seem like they're trying to create volatility with all the flip-flops from one day to the next.

Or maybe they are just incompetent.

Trump is incompetent as a president but his crony’s are surely profiting off this volatility

DadJokes

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2364
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4919 on: August 13, 2019, 01:06:43 PM »
It took 99 pages, but the thread has finally turned into a political discussion.

Thread top is in.

dragoncar

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 9947
  • Registered member
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4920 on: August 13, 2019, 01:22:31 PM »
It took 99 pages, but the thread has finally turned into a political discussion.

Thread top is in.

It’s not over until we bring up the nazis

Godwins top is in

solon

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2434
  • Age: 1824
  • Location: OH
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4921 on: August 13, 2019, 01:41:32 PM »



I'll post this, but I hope it doesn't end the thread.

OurTown

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1392
  • Age: 55
  • Location: Tennessee
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4922 on: August 13, 2019, 01:43:42 PM »
Wow, I did Nazi that coming.

ILikeDividends

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 459
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4923 on: August 13, 2019, 04:42:34 PM »
Wow, I did Nazi that coming.
Use a pun, go to prison.

Exflyboy

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8683
  • Age: 63
  • Location: Corvallis, Oregon
  • Expat Brit living in the New World..:)
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4924 on: August 13, 2019, 05:26:51 PM »
Gosh I thought we were talking about the space program for a minute there..:)

Turkey Leg

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 258
  • Location: US
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4925 on: August 13, 2019, 09:30:03 PM »
Gosh I thought we were talking about the space program for a minute there..:)

Space top was April 21, 1981.

JAYSLOL

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2317
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4926 on: August 13, 2019, 09:38:18 PM »
Gosh I thought we were talking about the space program for a minute there..:)

Space top was April 21, 1981.

Unless the space bottom is in

effigy98

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 559
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4927 on: August 14, 2019, 11:26:05 AM »
2 and 10 invert. We have 8 to 24 months based on history left. One final gasp for Mr Market left. Hedge your bets.

Roland of Gilead

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2454
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4928 on: August 14, 2019, 11:37:35 AM »
2 and 10 invert. We have 8 to 24 months based on history left. One final gasp for Mr Market left. Hedge your bets.

So which is it?  8 or 24?  That is a pretty broad range and a lot of time to have money sitting idle.

effigy98

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 559
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4929 on: August 14, 2019, 11:40:38 AM »
2 and 10 invert. We have 8 to 24 months based on history left. One final gasp for Mr Market left. Hedge your bets.

So which is it?  8 or 24?  That is a pretty broad range and a lot of time to have money sitting idle.

Not saying go out of the market and sit idle. Recommend making sure you are well diversified for each condition (deflation, inflation, recession, stagflation?) and reduce risk based on your personal situation.

Maenad

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 643
  • Location: Minneapolis 'burbs
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4930 on: August 14, 2019, 11:42:09 AM »
Per Investopedia, between 1945 and 2009 the average expansion lasted 58 months, so saying a recession is coming with 24 months is... not an impressive prediction, in my opinion.

HPstache

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2906
  • Age: 37
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4931 on: August 14, 2019, 11:51:58 AM »
The top may in fact be in... for a while.

FIRE@50

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 569
  • Age: 47
  • Location: Maryland
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4932 on: August 14, 2019, 11:54:58 AM »
Per Investopedia, between 1945 and 2009 the average expansion lasted 58 months, so saying a recession is coming with 24 months is... not an impressive prediction, in my opinion.
You are reading this thread and looking for an impressive prediction?

Tyson

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3231
  • Age: 52
  • Location: Denver, Colorado
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4933 on: August 14, 2019, 01:11:24 PM »
2 and 10 invert. We have 8 to 24 months based on history left. One final gasp for Mr Market left. Hedge your bets.

So which is it?  8 or 24?  That is a pretty broad range and a lot of time to have money sitting idle.

Not saying go out of the market and sit idle. Recommend making sure you are well diversified for each condition (deflation, inflation, recession, stagflation?) and reduce risk based on your personal situation.

Or, I can just keep plowing money into the market during a downturn and come out smelling like roses on the other side. 

Remember, you don't actually lose ANY money during a downturn, unless you pull your money out.  If you keep it in (or better yet, buy more), then your stash will grow like gangbusters after the dip is over. 

OurTown

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1392
  • Age: 55
  • Location: Tennessee
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4934 on: August 14, 2019, 01:54:47 PM »
The VIX is in.

Exflyboy

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8683
  • Age: 63
  • Location: Corvallis, Oregon
  • Expat Brit living in the New World..:)
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4935 on: August 14, 2019, 02:08:53 PM »
Bye bye 3025.. See you again in the not too distant future we hope..:)

catorbe

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 121
  • Location: ND
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4936 on: August 14, 2019, 02:16:12 PM »


Remember, you don't actually lose ANY money during a downturn, unless you pull your money out.  If you keep it in (or better yet, buy more), then your stash will grow like gangbusters after the dip is over.

PSH Top is in, there is no such thing as the dip being over /s

Davnasty

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2810
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4937 on: August 14, 2019, 02:24:07 PM »


Remember, you don't actually lose ANY money during a downturn, unless you pull your money out.  If you keep it in (or better yet, buy more), then your stash will grow like gangbusters after the dip is over.

PSH Top is in, there is no such thing as the dip being over /s

But couldn't a sub-top peak be the end of a dip? Or is it going to be one big dip with small interrupting peaks from now on? But wait, if it never comes back is the dip still a dip? Anyway, I think we're looking at more of a gradual cliff scenario.

Buffaloski Boris

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2121
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4938 on: August 14, 2019, 02:51:37 PM »


Remember, you don't actually lose ANY money during a downturn, unless you pull your money out.  If you keep it in (or better yet, buy more), then your stash will grow like gangbusters after the dip is over.

PSH Top is in, there is no such thing as the dip being over /s

But couldn't a sub-top peak be the end of a dip? Or is it going to be one big dip with small interrupting peaks from now on? But wait, if it never comes back is the dip still a dip? Anyway, I think we're looking at more of a gradual cliff scenario.

We’ll see. I’ve been waiting for a sale for a long time. We’re probably just being teased. Heck, today didn’t even get close to popping the circuit breakers.

Steeze

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1204
  • Age: 37
  • Location: NYC Area of Earth
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4939 on: August 14, 2019, 04:16:33 PM »
I’ve been stockpiling cash for two weeks now in anticipation of the crash. I have nearly 1% of my portfolio in cash ready to make a move. LETS DO THIS!!

dragoncar

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 9947
  • Registered member
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4940 on: August 14, 2019, 04:35:34 PM »
3....

dragoncar

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 9947
  • Registered member
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4941 on: August 14, 2019, 04:35:43 PM »
2...

dragoncar

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 9947
  • Registered member
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4942 on: August 14, 2019, 04:36:18 PM »


dragoncar

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 9947
  • Registered member
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4943 on: August 14, 2019, 04:36:35 PM »
That’s right I cheated

Buffaloski Boris

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2121
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4944 on: August 14, 2019, 04:45:41 PM »
I’ve been stockpiling cash for two weeks now in anticipation of the crash. I have nearly 1% of my portfolio in cash ready to make a move. LETS DO THIS!!

Whoa. 1%. Living on the edge!

UnleashHell

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8889
  • Age: 57
  • Location: Florida
  • Chapter IV - A New ... er.. something
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4945 on: August 14, 2019, 04:59:08 PM »
2840 for the s&p
think we have been there about 8 times since the beginning of 2018 either going up or down. guess the top is in.

BicycleB

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 5396
  • Location: Back in the USSA (I mean 'merica)
  • Older than the internet, but not wiser... yet
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4946 on: August 14, 2019, 05:43:11 PM »
This is the last time.

Ever!!!!!

Exflyboy

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8683
  • Age: 63
  • Location: Corvallis, Oregon
  • Expat Brit living in the New World..:)
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4947 on: August 14, 2019, 05:54:09 PM »
We'll be telling our Grandchildren.. "Once upon a time the S&P500 was at 3025"... Oooooh!..:)

Tyson

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3231
  • Age: 52
  • Location: Denver, Colorado
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4948 on: August 14, 2019, 06:14:42 PM »
We'll be telling our Grandchildren.. "Once upon a time the S&P500 was at 3025"... Oooooh!..:)

"Grandpa, you're OLD!"

RWTL

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 694
Re: Top is in
« Reply #4949 on: August 14, 2019, 06:21:41 PM »
That’s right I cheated

Impressive :)

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!