Top is in

[dragoncar]

Volatility top is in?

[BigMoneyJim]

I keep about 40% in fixed income ... because TOPS are a real thing.

TIPS TOPS IS IN!

[2Birds1Stone]

I like the reverse glidepath approach.

I'm sitting around 53% Equities this morning, with another 5% precious metals, 5% REIT.

The remaining 37% is in I-Bonds, BND, 2.5-2.85% CD ladder and maybe 2% in cash.

The way I look at it, if stocks tank 50%, I'll still only lose 25% of my spending power. At this point, I'm more concerned about not losing than winning. Our spending is so low, that even a few years of work at an entry level job in my space can completely make up for a slightly more conservative allocation. We will spend down the CD's first in FIRE, so that will drop significantly over time. Probably take a decade to get to a 80/20 long term AA.

[dandarc]

. . . At this point, I'm more concerned about not losing than winning. . . .

Tresselball top was in almost 10 years ago.

[DadJokes]

We're basically 100% US equities.

35% VTSAX
57% VINIX (best low cost option through 401k)
8% VFIAX (best low cost option through HSA)

However, most of the businesses on the US stock exchange do sufficient international business that I'm not too worried about needing to diversify, and we have a long time until retirement, so I see no reason to move anything into bonds at the moment.

[35andFI]

We're basically 100% US equities.

35% VTSAX
57% VINIX (best low cost option through 401k)
8% VFIAX (best low cost option through HSA)

However, most of the businesses on the US stock exchange do sufficient international business that I'm not too worried about needing to diversify, and we have a long time until retirement, so I see no reason to move anything into bonds at the moment.

This is very similar to what I am doing and for the reasons why I am doing it.

68% VTSAX (Total U.S. market fund held in taxable and IRA)
30% WFSPX (S&P 500 fund held in 401k)
2% SPTM (Total U.S. market ETF held in HSA)

[OurTown]

99 pages of top on the wall.

[Tyson]

99 pages of top on the wall.

Neunundneunzig luftballons float by!

[2Birds1Stone]

Yay, Argentina top is in.

[Travis]

99 pages of top on the wall.

Neunundneunzig luftballons float by!

On the same day Russia reports a nuclear missile accident...

[Buffaloski Boris]

I like the reverse glidepath approach.

I'm sitting around 53% Equities this morning, with another 5% precious metals, 5% REIT.

The remaining 37% is in I-Bonds, BND, 2.5-2.85% CD ladder and maybe 2% in cash.

The way I look at it, if stocks tank 50%, I'll still only lose 25% of my spending power. At this point, I'm more concerned about not losing than winning. Our spending is so low, that even a few years of work at an entry level job in my space can completely make up for a slightly more conservative allocation. We will spend down the CD's first in FIRE, so that will drop significantly over time. Probably take a decade to get to a 80/20 long term AA.

OK, so by reverse glide path you mean increasing your allocation in equities over time spent in retirement? If so, I like the approach. Minimizes SORR.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

I like the reverse glidepath approach.

I'm sitting around 53% Equities this morning, with another 5% precious metals, 5% REIT.

The remaining 37% is in I-Bonds, BND, 2.5-2.85% CD ladder and maybe 2% in cash.

The way I look at it, if stocks tank 50%, I'll still only lose 25% of my spending power. At this point, I'm more concerned about not losing than winning. Our spending is so low, that even a few years of work at an entry level job in my space can completely make up for a slightly more conservative allocation. We will spend down the CD's first in FIRE, so that will drop significantly over time. Probably take a decade to get to a 80/20 long term AA.

OK, so by reverse glide path you mean increasing your allocation in equities over time spent in retirement? If so, I like the approach. Minimizes SORR.

But let's be realistic, the reverse glide-path approach just highlights that we ultimately spend less as we get old and can maximize our beneficiaries' inheritance by holding equities while we coast off slowly into the night.  It's a perfectly legitimate strategy, but I prefer not to think about it, since I'm going to be young and vibrant forever!  I've also upped my current spending a bit (YOLO) since my inheritors will benefit from me using this strategy on their behalf :)

[marty998]

Yay, Argentina top is in.

Not for the first time in history either if I recall correctly. Didn't they go bankrupt once before?

[habanero]

Not for the first time in history either if I recall correctly. Didn't they go bankrupt once before?

Mine on once. From Wikipedia:

Americas    Argentina   1827   Default.[20]
Americas    Argentina   1890   Default. Panic of 1890[20]
Americas    Argentina   1915   Provincial default.[20]
Americas    Argentina   1930   Provincial default.[20]
Americas    Argentina   1982   Default. Latin American debt crisis[20]
Americas    Argentina   1988–1989   Internal debt default. Latin American debt crisis[20]
Americas    Argentina   2001   Default. Following years of instability, the Argentine economic crisis (1999–2002) came to a head, and a new government announced it could not meet its public debt obligations.[20]
Americas    Argentina   2005–2016   Argentine debt restructuring.

[Buffaloski Boris]

I like the reverse glidepath approach.

I'm sitting around 53% Equities this morning, with another 5% precious metals, 5% REIT.

The remaining 37% is in I-Bonds, BND, 2.5-2.85% CD ladder and maybe 2% in cash.

The way I look at it, if stocks tank 50%, I'll still only lose 25% of my spending power. At this point, I'm more concerned about not losing than winning. Our spending is so low, that even a few years of work at an entry level job in my space can completely make up for a slightly more conservative allocation. We will spend down the CD's first in FIRE, so that will drop significantly over time. Probably take a decade to get to a 80/20 long term AA.

OK, so by reverse glide path you mean increasing your allocation in equities over time spent in retirement? If so, I like the approach. Minimizes SORR.

But let's be realistic, the reverse glide-path approach just highlights that we ultimately spend less as we get old and can maximize our beneficiaries' inheritance by holding equities while we coast off slowly into the night.  It's a perfectly legitimate strategy, but I prefer not to think about it, since I'm going to be young and vibrant forever!  I've also upped my current spending a bit (YOLO) since my inheritors will benefit from me using this strategy on their behalf :)

Perfectly fine thing to do. "Flexibility" in early retirement to me means having more than enough and using the excess to increase generational wealth.  Although I kinda sorta think I won't be retiring early anyway.   

[Exflyboy]

Hey I see Trump and his goons must have bought some index funds at the close yesterday!

Tomorrow the increased China tarriffs will be imposed after all.. They would have sold by then..

[dandarc]

Hey I see Trump and his goons must have bought some index funds at the close yesterday!

Tomorrow the increased China tarriffs will be imposed after all.. They would have sold by then..

Does sort of seem like they're trying to create volatility with all the flip-flops from one day to the next.

[OurTown]

Hey I see Trump and his goons must have bought some index funds at the close yesterday!

Tomorrow the increased China tarriffs will be imposed after all.. They would have sold by then..

Does sort of seem like they're trying to create volatility with all the flip-flops from one day to the next.

Or maybe they are just incompetent.

[dragoncar]

Hey I see Trump and his goons must have bought some index funds at the close yesterday!

Tomorrow the increased China tarriffs will be imposed after all.. They would have sold by then..

Does sort of seem like they're trying to create volatility with all the flip-flops from one day to the next.

Or maybe they are just incompetent.

Trump is incompetent as a president but his crony’s are surely profiting off this volatility

[DadJokes]

It took 99 pages, but the thread has finally turned into a political discussion.

Thread top is in.

[dragoncar]

It took 99 pages, but the thread has finally turned into a political discussion.

Thread top is in.

It’s not over until we bring up the nazis

Godwins top is in

[solon]

I'll post this, but I hope it doesn't end the thread.

[OurTown]

Wow, I did Nazi that coming.

[ILikeDividends]

Wow, I did Nazi that coming.

Use a pun, go to prison.

[Exflyboy]

Gosh I thought we were talking about the space program for a minute there..:)

[Turkey Leg]

Gosh I thought we were talking about the space program for a minute there..:)

Space top was April 21, 1981.

[JAYSLOL]

Gosh I thought we were talking about the space program for a minute there..:)

Space top was April 21, 1981.

Unless the space bottom is in

[effigy98]

2 and 10 invert. We have 8 to 24 months based on history left. One final gasp for Mr Market left. Hedge your bets.

[Roland of Gilead]

2 and 10 invert. We have 8 to 24 months based on history left. One final gasp for Mr Market left. Hedge your bets.

So which is it?  8 or 24?  That is a pretty broad range and a lot of time to have money sitting idle.

[effigy98]

2 and 10 invert. We have 8 to 24 months based on history left. One final gasp for Mr Market left. Hedge your bets.

So which is it?  8 or 24?  That is a pretty broad range and a lot of time to have money sitting idle.

Not saying go out of the market and sit idle. Recommend making sure you are well diversified for each condition (deflation, inflation, recession, stagflation?) and reduce risk based on your personal situation.

[Maenad]

Per Investopedia, between 1945 and 2009 the average expansion lasted 58 months, so saying a recession is coming with 24 months is... not an impressive prediction, in my opinion.

[HPstache]

The top may in fact be in... for a while.

[FIRE@50]

Per Investopedia, between 1945 and 2009 the average expansion lasted 58 months, so saying a recession is coming with 24 months is... not an impressive prediction, in my opinion.

You are reading this thread and looking for an impressive prediction?

[Tyson]

2 and 10 invert. We have 8 to 24 months based on history left. One final gasp for Mr Market left. Hedge your bets.

So which is it?  8 or 24?  That is a pretty broad range and a lot of time to have money sitting idle.

Not saying go out of the market and sit idle. Recommend making sure you are well diversified for each condition (deflation, inflation, recession, stagflation?) and reduce risk based on your personal situation.

Or, I can just keep plowing money into the market during a downturn and come out smelling like roses on the other side. 

Remember, you don't actually lose ANY money during a downturn, unless you pull your money out.  If you keep it in (or better yet, buy more), then your stash will grow like gangbusters after the dip is over. 

[OurTown]

The VIX is in.

[Exflyboy]

Bye bye 3025.. See you again in the not too distant future we hope..:)

[catorbe]

Remember, you don't actually lose ANY money during a downturn, unless you pull your money out.  If you keep it in (or better yet, buy more), then your stash will grow like gangbusters after the dip is over.

PSH Top is in, there is no such thing as the dip being over /s

[Davnasty]

Remember, you don't actually lose ANY money during a downturn, unless you pull your money out.  If you keep it in (or better yet, buy more), then your stash will grow like gangbusters after the dip is over.

PSH Top is in, there is no such thing as the dip being over /s

But couldn't a sub-top peak be the end of a dip? Or is it going to be one big dip with small interrupting peaks from now on? But wait, if it never comes back is the dip still a dip? Anyway, I think we're looking at more of a gradual cliff scenario.

[Buffaloski Boris]

Remember, you don't actually lose ANY money during a downturn, unless you pull your money out.  If you keep it in (or better yet, buy more), then your stash will grow like gangbusters after the dip is over.

PSH Top is in, there is no such thing as the dip being over /s

But couldn't a sub-top peak be the end of a dip? Or is it going to be one big dip with small interrupting peaks from now on? But wait, if it never comes back is the dip still a dip? Anyway, I think we're looking at more of a gradual cliff scenario.

We’ll see. I’ve been waiting for a sale for a long time. We’re probably just being teased. Heck, today didn’t even get close to popping the circuit breakers.

[Steeze]

I’ve been stockpiling cash for two weeks now in anticipation of the crash. I have nearly 1% of my portfolio in cash ready to make a move. LETS DO THIS!!

[dragoncar]

3....

[dragoncar]

2...

[dragoncar]

[dragoncar]

That’s right I cheated

[Buffaloski Boris]

I’ve been stockpiling cash for two weeks now in anticipation of the crash. I have nearly 1% of my portfolio in cash ready to make a move. LETS DO THIS!!

Whoa. 1%. Living on the edge!

[UnleashHell]

2840 for the s&p
think we have been there about 8 times since the beginning of 2018 either going up or down. guess the top is in.

[BicycleB]

This is the last time.

Ever!!!!!

[Exflyboy]

We'll be telling our Grandchildren.. "Once upon a time the S&P500 was at 3025"... Oooooh!..:)

[Tyson]

We'll be telling our Grandchildren.. "Once upon a time the S&P500 was at 3025"... Oooooh!..:)

"Grandpa, you're OLD!"

[RWTL]

That’s right I cheated

Impressive :)