Author Topic: Top is in  (Read 513675 times)

davisgang90

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3500 on: October 11, 2018, 04:50:57 AM »
Why Oh Why didn't I sell and buy Beanie Babies!!!???

The Top was IN so many times and I just ignored the signs!!!

talltexan

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3501 on: October 11, 2018, 05:51:22 AM »
This drop has wiped out 2 weeks of purchases ... my investment account is only up $100 from where it was on October 1st (tragedy).
... Good thing tomorrow is pay-day and I get a nice 401k purchase of US Stocks!

I (sort of) feel bad for you guys that have a sizable stache and are seeing big balance drops.
Except for @Exflyboy because he is living off a 1.8% dividend, which seemingly makes him financially indestructible.

But what if both my rentals houses burned down.. Then I'd be up 2.8%.... What if the big earthquake hits in Oregon and flattens my house too?

Yeah Ok you probably don't need to feel too bad for me.

Note however (to those who are not long on this path and are wondering WTF is happening) that riding this wave thru thick and thin.. continually buying index funds is what has brought us rich bastards to our happy place.. Oh and not spending much helps too..:)

For now I'm going back to looking at the View of old town Dubrovnik from my airbnb window on our 6 week European tour..:)

realy excited to see the shout out for Dubrovnik, seriously under-rated travel destination. Los Angeles climate, European sensibility.

Exflyboy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3502 on: October 11, 2018, 07:15:49 AM »
This drop has wiped out 2 weeks of purchases ... my investment account is only up $100 from where it was on October 1st (tragedy).
... Good thing tomorrow is pay-day and I get a nice 401k purchase of US Stocks!

I (sort of) feel bad for you guys that have a sizable stache and are seeing big balance drops.
Except for @Exflyboy because he is living off a 1.8% dividend, which seemingly makes him financially indestructible.

But what if both my rentals houses burned down.. Then I'd be up 2.8%.... What if the big earthquake hits in Oregon and flattens my house too?

Yeah Ok you probably don't need to feel too bad for me.

Note however (to those who are not long on this path and are wondering WTF is happening) that riding this wave thru thick and thin.. continually buying index funds is what has brought us rich bastards to our happy place.. Oh and not spending much helps too..:)

For now I'm going back to looking at the View of old town Dubrovnik from my airbnb window on our 6 week European tour..:)

realy excited to see the shout out for Dubrovnik, seriously under-rated travel destination. Los Angeles climate, European sensibility.

Yes interesting place but you had better bring a boatload of money! A simple lunch just cost the 2 of us $33. Its a bit over run with tourists probably because the "Game of Thrones" was filmed here... Its a beautiful town but I don't think I need to come back.

I am much more impressed with Slovenia, even though Lubijana is a little spendy.. It just feels more lived in, whereas Dubrovnik feels like all the locals left so they could the tourists invade and gouge them for the privilege..:)

Cycling Stache

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3503 on: October 11, 2018, 07:25:17 AM »
The difference is 10 years ago I was 50% leveraged and had no cash.

This time my margin loan stands at $10 credit(!) and I have well north of six figures ready to use to catch the falling knives.

I like to think I have learned from my mistakes.

So . . . market timing?  Not sure lesson learned.

When will your entrance point be?  5% drop?  10% drop?  20% drop?  Timing is a pretty arbitrary thing without a plan (or a crystal ball).

DS

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3504 on: October 11, 2018, 07:25:23 AM »
Saw the news headline and headed straight for this thread for a laugh.

Haha I still find it funny that the number of posts in here is correlated with market swings. Not the idea of the parody..

fattest_foot

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3505 on: October 11, 2018, 08:05:20 AM »
Looks like we may be finally getting that long overdue correction (I don't really count the February one as it shot up in January and then just went right back to December levels).

The last real corrections we had were in August of 2015 and January 2016. Feels like yesterday.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3506 on: October 11, 2018, 08:21:28 AM »
This thread is way more entertaining than the Bogleheads version.

Brother Esau

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3507 on: October 11, 2018, 08:27:24 AM »
This drop has wiped out 2 weeks of purchases ... my investment account is only up $100 from where it was on October 1st (tragedy).
... Good thing tomorrow is pay-day and I get a nice 401k purchase of US Stocks!

I (sort of) feel bad for you guys that have a sizable stache and are seeing big balance drops.
Except for @Exflyboy because he is living off a 1.8% dividend, which seemingly makes him financially indestructible.

But what if both my rentals houses burned down.. Then I'd be up 2.8%.... What if the big earthquake hits in Oregon and flattens my house too?

Yeah Ok you probably don't need to feel too bad for me.

Note however (to those who are not long on this path and are wondering WTF is happening) that riding this wave thru thick and thin.. continually buying index funds is what has brought us rich bastards to our happy place.. Oh and not spending much helps too..:)

For now I'm going back to looking at the View of old town Dubrovnik from my airbnb window on our 6 week European tour..:)

We were just there, so beautiful.

thorstach

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3508 on: October 11, 2018, 08:59:30 AM »
Bottom is not in.

4alpacas

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3509 on: October 11, 2018, 09:04:43 AM »

MrMoneyMullet

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3510 on: October 11, 2018, 09:46:57 AM »
Top is in

Mgmny

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3511 on: October 11, 2018, 09:55:01 AM »

Radagast

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3512 on: October 11, 2018, 10:29:49 AM »
Bottom is in

dougules

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3513 on: October 11, 2018, 10:59:30 AM »
This drop has wiped out 2 weeks of purchases ... my investment account is only up $100 from where it was on October 1st (tragedy).
... Good thing tomorrow is pay-day and I get a nice 401k purchase of US Stocks!

I (sort of) feel bad for you guys that have a sizable stache and are seeing big balance drops.
Except for @Exflyboy because he is living off a 1.8% dividend, which seemingly makes him financially indestructible.

But what if both my rentals houses burned down.. Then I'd be up 2.8%.... What if the big earthquake hits in Oregon and flattens my house too?

Yeah Ok you probably don't need to feel too bad for me.

Note however (to those who are not long on this path and are wondering WTF is happening) that riding this wave thru thick and thin.. continually buying index funds is what has brought us rich bastards to our happy place.. Oh and not spending much helps too..:)

For now I'm going back to looking at the View of old town Dubrovnik from my airbnb window on our 6 week European tour..:)

We were just there, so beautiful.

Dubrovnik looks beautiful, but does the old city have a GOAT MOAT?

Threshkin

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3514 on: October 11, 2018, 11:18:23 AM »
Why Oh Why didn't I sell and buy Beanie Babies!!!???

The Top was IN so many times and I just ignored the signs!!!

Beane Babies are a buy and hold investment.  Never sell them.

DS

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3515 on: October 11, 2018, 11:19:58 AM »
Bottom's up... to the Top.

fattest_foot

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3516 on: October 11, 2018, 11:24:16 AM »


Kind of looks like a tuna to me.

WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?!

PathtoFIRE

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3517 on: October 11, 2018, 11:33:00 AM »
This thread is way more entertaining than the Bogleheads version.

It's pretty much only on days like yesterday that I even go over to BH, just to read that thread.

rpr

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3518 on: October 11, 2018, 11:35:50 AM »


Kind of looks like a tuna to me.

WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?!

Rohrschach Test :)

I love the pretty colors. Looks to me like hills and valleys and peaks and ridges with a lake at the bottom. Up for hiking anyone.  Or skiing: the purple is the cable car/ski lift that takes you up to the various peaks from which you can ski downhill the blue lines. 

PathtoFIRE

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3519 on: October 11, 2018, 11:39:58 AM »
So just reviewed my account at Vanguard, looks like I'm still under $3k of unrealized losses, think I'll wait it out a while and see where we are next week. I much prefer VTSAX to VFIAX. When I last tax harvested, I felt lucky to get a chance to do it twice and get those shares back in to VTSAX. Now it would only be a small part of the account, but still don't like it. I'm also thinking my tax loss harvesting days may be drawing to an end with either this event or another true drop sometime in the near future. And now that I have a muni bond fund in Vanguard that I didn't have last time, and which holds just over $700 in unrealized losses as of yesterday, I'm not even sure where I'd park those in, guess I'll have to research any additional muni bond funds unless someone has a good alternative to VWITX.

rpr

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3520 on: October 11, 2018, 11:44:50 AM »
So just reviewed my account at Vanguard, looks like I'm still under $3k of unrealized losses, think I'll wait it out a while and see where we are next week. I much prefer VTSAX to VFIAX. When I last tax harvested, I felt lucky to get a chance to do it twice and get those shares back in to VTSAX. Now it would only be a small part of the account, but still don't like it. I'm also thinking my tax loss harvesting days may be drawing to an end with either this event or another true drop sometime in the near future. And now that I have a muni bond fund in Vanguard that I didn't have last time, and which holds just over $700 in unrealized losses as of yesterday, I'm not even sure where I'd park those in, guess I'll have to research any additional muni bond funds unless someone has a good alternative to VWITX.
This is taking it OT but like you, doing TLH just seems to be too much work for not as much of a gain.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3521 on: October 11, 2018, 11:51:09 AM »
This thread is way more entertaining than the Bogleheads version.

It's pretty much only on days like yesterday that I even go over to BH, just to read that thread.
Same here!

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using Tapatalk


rpr

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3522 on: October 11, 2018, 11:56:00 AM »

For now I'm going back to looking at the View of old town Dubrovnik from my airbnb window on our 6 week European tour..:)

We were just there, so beautiful.

Dubrovnik looks beautiful, but does the old city have a GOAT MOAT?

@dougules -- Classic way to bring it back to on topic. :))))

DS

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3523 on: October 11, 2018, 12:20:20 PM »
This thread is way more entertaining than the Bogleheads version.

It's pretty much only on days like yesterday that I even go over to BH, just to read that thread.
Same here!

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using Tapatalk

Link us up?

2Birds1Stone

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dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3526 on: October 11, 2018, 03:22:37 PM »
This drop has wiped out 2 weeks of purchases ... my investment account is only up $100 from where it was on October 1st (tragedy).
... Good thing tomorrow is pay-day and I get a nice 401k purchase of US Stocks!

I (sort of) feel bad for you guys that have a sizable stache and are seeing big balance drops.
Except for @Exflyboy because he is living off a 1.8% dividend, which seemingly makes him financially indestructible.

But what if both my rentals houses burned down.. Then I'd be up 2.8%.... What if the big earthquake hits in Oregon and flattens my house too?

Yeah Ok you probably don't need to feel too bad for me.

Note however (to those who are not long on this path and are wondering WTF is happening) that riding this wave thru thick and thin.. continually buying index funds is what has brought us rich bastards to our happy place.. Oh and not spending much helps too..:)

For now I'm going back to looking at the View of old town Dubrovnik from my airbnb window on our 6 week European tour..:)

We were just there, so beautiful.

Definitely hit up lady pi pi for lunch.  I even brought some of their house wine home

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3527 on: October 11, 2018, 03:31:31 PM »
"Halloween started early this month for investors," Ed Yardeni, president of investment advisory firm Yardeni Research, wrote to clients.

FEAR IS BACK

ScreamingHeadGuy

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3528 on: October 11, 2018, 03:38:02 PM »
I (almost) feel bad for front loading my contributions this year.  Guess I will just have to make taxable investments. 

techwiz

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3529 on: October 11, 2018, 03:44:58 PM »
Quote
"Halloween started early this month for investors,"




   

Time for some super deals.
« Last Edit: October 11, 2018, 03:49:19 PM by techwiz »

onlykelsey

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3530 on: October 11, 2018, 03:47:41 PM »
I (almost) feel bad for front loading my contributions this year.  Guess I will just have to make taxable investments.

I was just thinking that.  But it was a good strategy for the preceding five years, so I'll take those averages.

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3531 on: October 11, 2018, 03:48:46 PM »
Quote
"Halloween started early this month for investors,"



Where did you even find that?  Itís great!

Steeze

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3532 on: October 11, 2018, 04:03:43 PM »


Kind of looks like a tuna to me.

WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?!

Rohrschach Test :)

I love the pretty colors. Looks to me like hills and valleys and peaks and ridges with a lake at the bottom. Up for hiking anyone.  Or skiing: the purple is the cable car/ski lift that takes you up to the various peaks from which you can ski downhill the blue lines.

You always have to hike to get to the best lines - Take the gondola to the top and hike to peak 1.
Then the trouble is finding a group of people that are cool enough to hike all day when there is a perfectly good chairlift which you paid too much money to not even ride :)

Brother Esau

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3533 on: October 11, 2018, 04:52:40 PM »
I've cashed in all of my investments. Waiting for thorstach to declare when "Bottom is in".

solon

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3534 on: October 11, 2018, 05:12:02 PM »
Look at all the charts on this site. A chartist could go crazy! https://loganmohtashami.com/

NWOutlier

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3535 on: October 11, 2018, 07:07:44 PM »
I've cashed in all of my investments. Waiting for thorstach to declare when "Bottom is in".

Where is the LIKE button for this quote?

ILikeDividends

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3536 on: October 11, 2018, 07:45:10 PM »
S&P Futures up about 17.50 (0.64%) as I type.

Did someone postpone the end of the world as we know it?

dragoncar

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3537 on: October 12, 2018, 12:10:35 AM »
S&P Futures up about 17.50 (0.64%) as I type.

Did someone postpone the end of the world as we know it?

Classic bull trap.  Premarket is always designed to fool you

marty998

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3538 on: October 12, 2018, 12:53:45 AM »
The difference is 10 years ago I was 50% leveraged and had no cash.

This time my margin loan stands at $10 credit(!) and I have well north of six figures ready to use to catch the falling knives.

I like to think I have learned from my mistakes.

So . . . market timing?  Not sure lesson learned.

When will your entrance point be?  5% drop?  10% drop?  20% drop?  Timing is a pretty arbitrary thing without a plan (or a crystal ball).

Yes market timing. You can put your money in on the same day every 2 weeks forever, or you can recognise when it is simply and utterly stupid to do so and wait a little bit.

Up to the peak, do you guys realise Amazon was trading on 244 times earnings? 244 times! That goes way beyond dot.com stupidity. And that one stock is more than 5% of the S&P 500. And this is before we start talking about additional regulations to be imposed on your other tech companies who have been abusing our privacy for far too long.

Down here we have 4 banks geared towards residential property lending comprising 25% of our market and we are entering the first real property bust in a generation caused by macro-prudential controls, sentiment, weak wage growth, lack of confidence in government and tax rules and good old fashioned greed and excess. The stock prices have already fallen significantly, but they are not writing enough loans now to ensure future sustained profit growth.

This week is not going to be one of those 3 day corrections and the index continues to march steadily upwards again. I'm not going to wait forever, but there's absolutely no rush to pile back in over the next month or 2.

Top is in for now(!). I will swallow my sea of red on the broker screens for the near future and progressively dump my cash in over the next 6 months as the market falls. Absolutely pointless doing it now, and I saved myself 7% by not throwing it all in 5 weeks ago.

I cannot predict the bottom, but this is one of those moments where you know you are not there yet.

You guys are in the denial stage of grief. That much is clear. I'll come back to this thread at the capitulation stage in a few months time :)

Of course one day we will see these recent highs eclipsed. Just don't bank on it being any time in the very near future.

ILikeDividends

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3539 on: October 12, 2018, 01:11:23 AM »
You guys are in the denial stage of grief. That much is clear. I'll come back to this thread at the capitulation stage in a few months time :)
Really?  Denial of grief?  Wouldn't I have to feel grief in order to deny it?

Listen.  I start collecting social security in less than 6 months.  I have enough cash equivalents already in a taxable account to cover expenses until then, and about a year after that (much longer, if factoring in SS).  After Social Security kicks in, I will no longer need to draw down my equity allocation to cover expenses.

How is this correction (or crash, if it becomes that) any different than any other?

Whether this recent volatility matters or not depends solely on how well prepared any one individual is, and how old that individual is.  It largely depends on when they need to start drawing down. 

That could be tomorrow.  That could be 35 years from now.  Volatility means two very different things at those two extremes.

ETA: Top is in.
« Last Edit: October 12, 2018, 01:41:37 AM by ILikeDividends »

marty998

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3540 on: October 12, 2018, 01:26:12 AM »
The difference is 10 years ago I was 50% leveraged and had no cash.

This time my margin loan stands at $10 credit(!) and I have well north of six figures ready to use to catch the falling knives.

I like to think I have learned from my mistakes.

So . . . market timing?  Not sure lesson learned.

When will your entrance point be?  5% drop?  10% drop?  20% drop?  Timing is a pretty arbitrary thing without a plan (or a crystal ball).

Yes market timing. You can put your money in on the same day every 2 weeks forever, or you can recognise when it is simply and utterly stupid to do so and wait a little bit.

Up to the peak, do you guys realise Amazon was trading on 244 times earnings? 244 times! That goes way beyond dot.com stupidity. And that one stock is more than 5% of the S&P 500. And this is before we start talking about additional regulations to be imposed on your other tech companies who have been abusing our privacy for far too long.

Down here we have 4 banks geared towards residential property lending comprising 25% of our market and we are entering the first real property bust in a generation caused by macro-prudential controls, sentiment, weak wage growth, lack of confidence in government and tax rules and good old fashioned greed and excess. The stock prices have already fallen significantly, but they are not writing enough loans now to ensure future sustained profit growth.

This week is not going to be one of those 3 day corrections and the index continues to march steadily upwards again. I'm not going to wait forever, but there's absolutely no rush to pile back in over the next month or 2.

Top is in for now(!). I will swallow my sea of red on the broker screens for the near future and progressively dump my cash in over the next 6 months as the market falls. Absolutely pointless doing it now, and I saved myself 7% by not throwing it all in 5 weeks ago.

I cannot predict the bottom, but this is one of those moments where you know you are not there yet.

You guys are in the denial stage of grief. That much is clear. I'll come back to this thread at the capitulation stage in a few months time :)

Of course one day we will see these recent highs eclipsed. Just don't bank on it being any time in the very near future.

Apologies for the poor form in quoting myself here, but I'll hasten to add my desired asset allocation is not 100% stocks. I have a mix of property, shares and cash which has served my risk profile well over the past few years.

In no way have I missed the run up by not investing. Indeed I've poured $4000 a month on average into our local index over the last 3 years. Though from about August, I've not been in a hurry to continue at that rate (however I probably bought a small parcel at the absolute peak!)

marty998

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3541 on: October 12, 2018, 01:39:25 AM »
You guys are in the denial stage of grief. That much is clear. I'll come back to this thread at the capitulation stage in a few months time :)
Really?  Denial of grief?  Wouldn't I have to feel grief in order to deny it?

Listen.  I start collecting social security in less than 6 months.  I have enough cash equivalents already in a taxable account to cover expenses until then, and about a year after that.  After Social Security kicks in, I will no longer need to draw down my equity allocation to cover expenses.

How is this correction (or crash, if it becomes that) any different than any other?

Whether this volatility matters or not, depends solely on how well prepared anyone is, and how old they are.  It largely depends on when they need to start drawing down.  Could be tomorrow.  Could be 35 years from now.

Volatility means two very different things at those two extremes.

ETA: Top is in.

I'm not suggesting people (like yourself) are unprepared. I totally understand that in the long run today's market ructions don't matter.

What irritated me in part, was your comment about the end of the world (notwithstanding this thread is a send up). There is most definitely a shade of grey between end of the world and blind optimism, that a rational investor should sit within.

If it only gives people pause for thought to ensure their target asset allocations are in order (because after a 9 year bull run they will certainly have gone out of whack) then I'll be satisfied.

In no way am I advocating selling up completely (and I have not done so myself).

ILikeDividends

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3542 on: October 12, 2018, 01:47:16 AM »
What irritated me in part, was your comment about the end of the world (notwithstanding this thread is a send up).
That was my attempt at keeping the apparent spirit of this thread in context.

You are not the first person who doesn't appreciate my sense of humor; therefore, I yield to your analytical evaluation of my sense of humor.
« Last Edit: October 12, 2018, 01:57:14 AM by ILikeDividends »

marty998

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3543 on: October 12, 2018, 02:18:05 AM »
What irritated me in part, was your comment about the end of the world (notwithstanding this thread is a send up).
That was my attempt at keeping the apparent spirit of this thread in context.

You are not the first person who doesn't appreciate my sense of humor; therefore, I yield to your analytical evaluation of my sense of humor.

All good - I didn't misinterpret the humour @ILikeDividends, I knew what you were getting it. But something about the way it was written just triggered me.

Two weeks ago, a group of colleagues and myself (we work in the Financial Sector) got together for a discussion and basically the tone was "it feels like 2007 all over again". Not so much subprime, but the cumulative effects of a prolonged period of low interest rates causing fundamental dislocations in asset prices across all asset classes. Couple with "Bondcano" you could say I have been expecting the outcomes we have seen this week.

It's one thing to pile on someone who has been saying "the market will fall" for the last 3 years, it's another to pile on when it is actually happening LOL.

At least that's my perspective today. Your Amigo in Chief isn't helping with his words about the Fed. If he takes the reins of interest rate policy we really will see a crash and a half.

Anyway, enough from me. Carry on, I expect in 20 years time when all is said and done we'll see the S&P hit 10,000 and it'll all be water under the bridge.
« Last Edit: October 12, 2018, 02:20:04 AM by marty998 »

ILikeDividends

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3544 on: October 12, 2018, 02:31:34 AM »
It's all good.  I suspected there was very little we could find to disagree about.  But it's been fun trying to do that, anyway.

;)
« Last Edit: October 12, 2018, 02:55:46 AM by ILikeDividends »

Maenad

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fattest_foot

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3546 on: October 12, 2018, 08:06:29 AM »
It's one thing to pile on someone who has been saying "the market will fall" for the last 3 years, it's another to pile on when it is actually happening LOL.

You seem awfully sure of yourself.

Why don't you put your money where your mouth is and short the market. Since this is apparently so incredibly clear, you should be a billionaire in just a few short months, right?

dreadmoose

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3547 on: October 12, 2018, 08:36:07 AM »
I find it incredible that with the history of this thread (and the RED DOW) there are still those that want to jump in and talk about market crashes immediately as if they predicted them because they were smart. Not to mention calling people out for having an actual proper risk-based allocation and sticking to it as proven by basically all historical math.

For the record, for anyone that reads this and questions themselves. MARKET TIMING DOES NOT WORK, don't let anyone tell you otherwise. There are always a million reasons that next week looks bleak, none of them are actual indicators or the vast majority of people would notice and the market would tank and not bounce back. It doesn't matter how smart or connected someone is, they can not predict what the general population is going to do about the future, other than hopefully that we won't all die out in some apocalyptic scenario which means it wouldn't really matter where you hid your riches. When the market does go down there has to be a price point that people will get back in, if you can't predict both you lose. Find an asset allocation that lets you sleep at night and then stick to it.

The best investors are those that have lost their passwords or died, the second best have simply never sold. Stay the course.

GuitarStv

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3548 on: October 12, 2018, 08:41:14 AM »
For the record, for anyone that reads this and questions themselves. MARKET TIMING DOES NOT WORK, don't let anyone tell you otherwise.

Actually, market timing does work.  Some of the time.  That's why it's so incredibly appealing to try.  It doesn't work because you've figured out the market . . . but people tend to gloss over this fact.

dreadmoose

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Re: Top is in
« Reply #3549 on: October 12, 2018, 08:47:20 AM »
For the record, for anyone that reads this and questions themselves. MARKET TIMING DOES NOT WORK, don't let anyone tell you otherwise.

Actually, market timing does work.  Some of the time.  That's why it's so incredibly appealing to try.  It doesn't work because you've figured out the market . . . but people tend to gloss over this fact.

Haha, indeed.

It's hard to always have caveats and still get a point across. Market timing is a wild guess more akin to gambling than sound financial advice. The person beside us that nailed it in the past is the same as the gambler... probably lying, almost definitely obscuring the total win / loss over a lifetime, or just incredibly and un-repeatably lucky.

We've seen a human win the lottery, that doesn't mean it's worth playing their game.